(Globe&Mail) Employee concerns main hurdle in Potash Corp. takeover of K+S

Employee concerns main hurdle in Potash Corp. takeover of K+S


In Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc.’s quest to buy K+S AG, one of its biggest hurdles may lie in the German company’s corporate structure.

K+S has two boards of directors, one comprised of executives and another of employee representatives and shareholders.

The employee-shareholder group, known as the supervisory board, has enormous influence over the company with the power to hire and fire executives.


Unlike most takeovers, where a high enough bid will succeed, the buyer must also deal with the supervisory board, which takes into account the employees.

“The representative of the employees represent different interests,” said Martin Imhof, a partner at law firm Heuking Kuhn Luer Wojtek, who specializes in cross-border mergers and acquisitions in Germany.

“They try to protect employees, so no employee is made redundant in a takeover.”

Half of the directors on K+S’s 16-member supervisory board are employee representatives and union reps. It voted unanimously along with the executive board to reject Potash Corp.’s $8.7-billion (U.S.) bid, saying it was too low and citing potential job and production losses.

Potash Corp.’s offer represents a 57 per cent premium over K+S’s stock over the past year – a significant amount, especially in a soft commodities market.

But even though Potash Corp. is open to raising its bid if it found more value, that may not be the sticking point.

“What it takes in reality is a great deal of diplomacy and diplomatic communication and conviction rather than by throwing money at people,” said Ralf Thaeter, managing partner with law firm Herbert Smith Freehills Germany LLP, who has worked on cross-border mergers in Germany for more than two decades.

“The style in Germany is to reconcile interests of shareholders and employees. At the very end, the owners will always prevail but it is not as easy as [saying] ‘I have the majority and you are out of here.’ That’s just not going to work,” he said.

Although Potash Corp. said it does not plan to slash jobs or shutter mines, K+S wants more assurances. According to a source close to K+S, the company wants more than a legal and binding document. It wants a comprehensive, detailed set of commitments, as well as a mechanism to enforce the commitments after the merger.

The companies started talking about working together late last year, according to one source close to Potash Corp. Then the chief executives, Potash Corp.’s Jochen Tilk and K+S’s Norbert Steiner, spoke in February. A source close to K+S described the meeting as unsubstantial and irrelevant.

Tension erupted after K+S received Potash Corp.’s takeover proposal late in May. Potash Corp. wanted to meet to discuss the terms. But K+S refused and sent Potash Corp. a list of questions instead. K+S has said Potash Corp. was evasive when it asked for a commitment to protect 14,000 K+S employees.

The source close to K+S scoffed at a suggestion that they were not negotiating in good faith and said negotiations and diligence were something that is earned with a convincing proposal.

Regardless, K+S cannot ignore the huge premium Potash Corp. is offering. The source close to Potash Corp. said K+S shareholders like its offer. The Germany company has also heard that the premium is spectacular. But the source close to K+S said shareholders should not be blinded by the premium as it is based on what it sees as its undervalued stock. K+S has said Potash Corp.’s offer trivializes its large potash project in Saskatchewan, called Legacy.

K+S executives are now reaching out to shareholders to defend their decision. K+S shares are trading 10 per cent lower than Potash Corp.’s offer of €41 ($58) per share, suggesting that investors are not convinced that the deal will succeed.

K+S has not specified what is a fair price, except to say that it believes Legacy is worth €21 per share. That has led to speculation that K+S’s target is around €50.

(BarCap) Integrated Oils : Royal Dutch Top Picks

Downstream revival continues
The European large cap oils are gradually adjusting to a world of lower oil prices. It remains a challenging environment with the group facing a material squeeze in earnings and cashflow but critically we see increasing evidence that the management teams are able to drive through cost savings and efficiency improvements. We assume capex for the group will fall an average of 10% in 2015 and there is also a greater emphasis on opex discipline than in the recent past. The impact of these changes is not always immediate and a bigger impact is likely to be seen on earnings in 2016, but that progress is able to be made at all at this stage is encouraging. We expect 2Q earnings to fall an average of 39% y/y in US$ terms with cost savings and a remarkably strong downstream environment not quite enough to offset the lower oil and natural gas prices. The revival in downstream lasted longer than we expected at the start of the year and looks set to remain a differentiating feature amongst companies for the rest of the year. The combination of rising consensus EPS estimates, the evidence that self-help measures are working along with the commitment to dividends should, in our view, be supportive of sector valuations relative to the wider market in the coming 12 months. Our Overweight ratings remain Royal Dutch Shell, Repsol, BP, GALP and Total.

(BarCap) What could change for Telecom Italia with Vivendi ?

Vivendi (EW) now holds c.15% of Telecom Italia’s (TI; rated EW) ordinary shares, raising the key question of how it might influence TI’s strategy and what for. We have looked at TI’s bylaws and the shareholding structure of all the related parties (Group Bolloré, etc) and see a number of ways for Vivendi to get board representation without being hostile. Regarding the “what for” we see little possibility for a rapid change in TI’s strategy: a sale of its Brazil business is unlikely in the short term; TI does not need Vivendi for content, in our view; and in Italy, we believe TI is already following the right strategy. Given the possibility of building a controlling stake at no premium, Vivendi may have just been opportunistic. In European telecoms, we continue to see more attractive opportunities elsewhere, notably BT (OW), DT (OW) or TEF DE (OW).

(BofA-ML) European Telecom : Q2 preview –growth to slow down

Trend overview
Q1 reporting was mixed with many telcos reliant on a H2 growth acceleration to meet FY guidance. Q2 is likely to show a worsening of domestic yony revenue growth but investors should not be overly concerned. The Q2 slowdown: i) is mainly due to lower handset sales, in particular iPhone 6. Service revenues (= ex handsets) are set for a mild +0.7pp qonq
improvement to -0.6% yony. The trend is therefore still one of underlying improvement ii) Group organic revenue growth is still +ve at Q2E +2.0%. For a sector that historically has faced strong deflationary headwinds, organic growth is a good result even if driven by nondomestic operations. We update our POs for Liberty Global and Telefonica SA.

Most/least favoured into the quarter
+ves into Q2 we flag are: TeliaSonera on a better Sweden EBITDA and Eurasia result building a path to flat group organic EBITDA guidance; Proximus guidance upgrade; Mobistar EBITDA beat and Orange EBITDA recovery.
–ves into Q2 we flag are: Tele2 EBITDA expectations remain too high; Tel Italia and Telefonica face a BRL headwind; Vodafone boosted by cable consolidation but mobile trends in Germany to remain weak.

(BN) *EURO SUMMIT HAS UNANIMOUSLY REACHED AGREEMENT ON GREECE


BN 07/13 06:56 *EU PRESIDENT TUSK CONFIRMS DEAL IN TWEET
BN 07/13 06:56 *EURO SUMMIT HAS UNANIMOUSLY REACHED AGREEMENT ON GREECE
BFW 07/13 03:19 *CREDITORS' PLAN FOR ASSET FUND IS DEAL BREAKER: GREEK OFFICIAL

Creditors’ Plan for Asset Fund Is Deal Breaker: Greek Official
2015-07-13 03:23:19.967 GMT


By Jonathan Stearns
(Bloomberg) -- Euro proposal to put assets in a
privatization fund is so sensitive to Greece, said a Greek
official who asked not to be identified because talks are
private.


* Comments came at about 5:15 a.m. in Brussels, more than 13
hours after a euro-area summit began


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To contact the reporter on this story:
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(BofA-ML) French Telcos - Back To BAsics

When the dust settles – back to four operator market
We reassess our call on French Telecoms after the failed attempt by Altice to acquire Bouygues Telecom. Consolidation could happen but visibility is low, and in the meantime if pricing is stable, it is unlikely to improve markedly in our view. We therefore remove strategic value upside from consolidation from our valuations on Iliad and Bouygues. We lower POs on Iliad and Orange but reiterate our Buy ratings, while we downgrade Bouygues to Neutral based on DCF value for its telecom asset. NUM remains Neutral with an unchanged €55 PO.

Stable pricing, but limited room for pricing power
1/ We continue to see significant rationale for consolidation, but for now the rejection of Altice’s offer by Bouygues leaves the market structure unchanged around two dominant converged operators Orange and Numericable-SFR, a fast growing Iliad but still in build-up mode, and a sub-scale Bouygues Telecom. 
2/ Pricing has been stable for two years and is unlikely to come under pressure, but we do not see significant pricing power at this juncture. Bouygues Tel new targets do embed some price increases, but only after a first phase of
subscribers’ growth (+1mln subs in mobile and fixed by 2017). 
3/ the spectrum auction could see bidding tension with 4 bidders for six 5MHz blocks, we assume €500mln per block.


Stock implications: lower POs, downgrade Bouygues to Neutral, Buy Iliad and Orange
• Iliad remains our top pick within French telcos, but we revise our PO down from €284 based on a target multiple (reflecting consolidation potential) to our DCF based fair value of €263, reflecting a status quo on market structures, and €1bn spectrum cost vs €800mln before. We still see a strong Buy case for Iliad, with a valuation now down to sector multiples on 2016E forecasts (7.0x EBITDA, 14.3x EV/OPFCF) despite higher growth potential.
• Orange: We maintain our Buy on Orange but reduce our PO from €20 to €18. We continue to see substantial value in Orange, with the stock trading on 10.8x 2015E EV/OpFCF and 7.0% FCFE yield, while we expect Q2 to show improving
EBITDA trends, supporting FY expectations. However, for now France is on the sidelines of broader in-market consolidation trend in most European’s markets. Our PO reduction reflects lower long term wholesale business as FTTH picks up.
• Bouygues: we downgrade the stock to Neutral and reduce our PO from €41 to €33.7, implying 12% total return potential. This reflects a move to a DCF valuation on Bouygues Telecoms of €6.3bn (implied 9.0x EBITDA multiple on our 2015E
forecast), versus a €9bn valuation previously, with a lower strategic value attached to the asset.
• Numericable-SFR: we maintain our Neutral rating and €55 PO. We see two midterm options for NUM-SFR: 1/minority buy-back of share swap with Altice to remove potential minority leakage, or 2/ Use NUM-SFR as a vehicle of further
European expansion.