--> +ve CGG...could come back maybe...
Greece may ask Europe to buy bonds to pay for redemptions - financial press
- May 8th: Greece to pay €1.4B for Bill redemption
- May 15th: Greece to pay €1.4B for Bill redemption
* The Year of the Blink
Both the Fed and the PBoC have "blinked” this year, allowing asset returns to remain buoyed by max liquidity, default concerns in Greece/China/energy to be unrealized and "carry trades" to reignite. Our long dollar, long stocks>bonds asset allocation has worked, but long volatility has thus far disappointed.
* Profit Recession
Max liquidity/minimal rates has permitted corporate equities and bonds to ignore the global profit recession (Chart 3 - global EPS -10% since July). We believe that changes if inflation unexpectedly picks up in U.S. or Germany. We are skeptical, not least due to “creative disruption/deflation” of the tech revolution. But investors appear so underexposed to inflation assets...we recommend adding some gold, vol, and cash.
* BofAML China trades
Tactically long A-shares (preference for laggard staples, resources, utilities); sell Ashares into strength on 3-6 month view; Pay 5-year US swap rates versus 5-yearoffshore China swap rates; long US$ call spreads versus CNY puts; “rent” underowned EM / materials / commodities in Q2.
* The Year of the Blink
Investors appear bullish again as the threat of "rates shock" fades. But extreme levels of monetary stimulus and rates threaten periodic bouts of volatility in 2015. Should an EPS recession continue, default contagion occur and/or, investor disobedience emerge (central banks tell the markets to do one thing and they do opposite), volatility is likely to spike, in our view.
France 2 diffuse jeudi à 22 h 50 le documentaire, François Mitterrand et la guerre d'Algérie* cosigné par l'historien Benjamin Stora et François Malye, collaborateur du Point. Ce dernier répond à nos questions.
Le Point.fr : Face au problème algérien, François Mitterrand est-il un humaniste, un pragmatique ou un arriviste ?
François Malye : Les trois. Quand l'insurrection algérienne éclate à partir du 1er novembre 1954, il est plutôt pragmatique. En tant que ministre de l'Intérieur, il tente d'écraser la rébellion et de rétablir l'ordre. Mais il se montre également un humaniste. La torture le heurte. En 1955, il a l'intention de réformer la police en Algérie afin de la rendre plus respectueuse des populations musulmanes. Son projet consiste à muter en métropole les éléments les plus durs de la police locale et à nommer en Algérie des policiers de la métropole, plus vertueux. Un projet qui n'aboutira pas, car le gouvernement Mendès-France, dont il est membre, tombe le 5 février 1955 après huit mois d'exercice du pouvoir.
Comment va-t-il en arriver à faire couper des têtes ?
Le virage est pris lorsqu'il devient ministre de la Justice du gouvernement de Guy Mollet, le 2 janvier 1956. Le président du Conseil revient d'Alger où il a été conspué. Cette fois, il est bien décidé à écraser le FLN. La politique va se durcir. Garde des Sceaux, Mitterrand est alors le numéro trois du gouvernement. Au rythme où ceux-ci tombent, c'est bientôt son tour de diriger les affaires du pays, se dit-il. Mais pour rester dans la course, il ne faut pas faire partie des "mous". Il va alors se déclarer favorable, dans la grande majorité des cas, à l'exécution des condamnés à mort qui attendent dans les geôles d'Algérie, contrairement à ses compagnons Pierre Mendès France, Alain Savary ou Gaston Defferre. Le seul autre à approuver les exécutions est Maurice Bourgès-Maunoury, ministre des Armées, en compétition avec Mitterrand pour le poste de président du Conseil.
Au bout du compte, combien de demandes de grâce a-t-il refusées ?
On compte 45 guillotinés tandis qu'il occupe les fonctions de garde des Sceaux. Il refusera trente-deux demandes de grâce, en acceptera huit. Cinq avis ne sont pas connus. Retenons que dans 80 % des cas connus, François Mitterrand a refusé la grâce. Contrairement à ce qu'on a pu croire, ces premiers condamnés à mort exécutés de la guerre d'Algérie ne sont pas des poseurs de bombe. Ils ont participé à l'insurrection, mais souvent sans commettre de meurtre. L'un des deux premiers auxquels on a coupé la tête, Abdelkader Ferradj, était un musulman qui avait tenté de mettre le feu à une meule de foin ! Ce n'est qu'après Mitterrand que les poseurs de bombe du FLN d'Alger seront capturés. Avant, les prisonniers sont juste de pauvres types qui n'ont pas fait grand-chose...
Sur le fond, il désapprouve la situation en Algérie. Mendès France et Alain Savary démissionnent, pas lui. Pourquoi ?
Jean Daniel le dit très bien dans le documentaire. Très vite, la tutelle morale de Mendès France lui a paru insupportable. Ce Mendès à la conscience pure n'est plus un exemple pour Mitterrand. Mendès France démissionnera en 1956 quand il comprendra que Guy Mollet n'utilise les pouvoirs spéciaux que contre les musulmans et pas contre les Européens d'Algérie. Mitterrand en est soulagé. Mendès France ne reviendra plus jamais au premier plan de la politique. Au fond, Mitterrand s'est arrimé à lui le temps qu'il fallait... S'il approuve la politique de répression, c'est qu'il croit que la guerre peut être gagnée très vite. C'est loin d'être un visionnaire.
Pourquoi cette partie de sa biographie a-t-elle été si longtemps enfouie ?
Franz-Olivier Giesbert, Jean Lacouture ou Catherine Nay ont évoqué ce passé dans leurs écrits. S'il a été occulté dans les années 1970, c'est que tout le monde au PS et au PC avait un intérêt à l'oublier. Les communistes, eux aussi, avaient voté les pouvoirs spéciaux. Mitterrand est le champion dont on espère qu'il fera revenir la gauche au pouvoir. En outre, il a passé un deal avec les pieds-noirs dans un discours célèbre prononcé à Avignon pendant la campagne de 1981. Ne l'oublions pas, c'est lui qui, une fois élu, réintégrera, en 1982, le général Salan dans tous ses droits. Cela déchirera la gauche, et c'est d'ailleurs à cette occasion que l'article 49-3 sera utilisé pour la première fois. Quant à la droite, elle ne juge pas si mal l'action de Mitterrand en Algérie. Donc, finalement, tout le monde s'est tu, et tout le monde est tombé d'accord pour oublier. L'Algérie, c'était sale. À l'époque, il n'y avait guère que la presse d'extrême droite pour remuer ce passé, mais sans le crédit de la presse traditionnelle.
Pourquoi ce souvenir remonte-t-il à la surface aujourd'hui ?
Les confessions du général Paul Aussaresses en 2001 sur la torture en Algérie ont brusquement fait resurgir ce passé. Le premier article sur les guillotinés de Mitterrand est publié dans Le Point, en 2001 . Ensuite, avec Benjamin Stora, nous avons fait le constat, en 2008, que très peu de choses avaient été écrites sur les guillotinés de l'époque. Il fallait remonter aux sources, les archives. Elles sont très difficiles d'accès concernant cette période. Nous avons d'ailleurs trouvé très peu de choses sur le fonctionnement même du ministère de la Justice de 1956 à 1957.
Y aurait-il eu des destructions volontaires ?
C'est difficile à dire... En tout cas, l'Algérie demeure un passé non digéré. Cette histoire demeure l'otage de différents lobbys. On n'a pas fini le travail d'apaisement. C'est pourquoi il faut la raconter en évitant de juger, mais en tentant de serrer la vérité au plus près.
*François Mitterrand et la guerre d'Algérie cosigné par Benjamin Stora et François Malye, avec Frédéric Brunnquell à la réalisation.
EI Towers announces it will no longer pursue public offer on Raiway (Press release attached)
The Board of Directors of EI Towers has expressed its assessments about the voluntary tender and exchange offer promoted on all the ordinary shares of Rai Way (the “Offer”).
After the analysis of the press release dated April 16th, 2015 with which RAI stated that “it would have not adhered in any way to the offer promoted by EI Towers, notwithstanding the modification introduced” – and having taken into account that EI Towers had declared its availability to purchase a minority equity interest in Rai Way provided that a minimum threshold equal to at least 40% of the share capital was achieved – the Board acknowledged therefore that, even before the start of the offering period, there are no conditions to prosecute the Offer.
Raiway has a market cap of EUR 1.093bn.
Facebook beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line
Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.42 per share, $0.02 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.40; revenues rose 41.6% year/year to $3.54 bln vs the $3.56 bln consensus.
Key Metrics
- Daily active users (DAUs) were 936 million an increase of 17% y/y; Mobile DAUs were 798 million an increase of 31% y/y.
- Monthly active users (MAUs) were 1.44 billion an increase of 13% y/y; Mobile MAUs were 1.25 billion an increase of 24% y/y.
- Revenue totaled $3.54 billion, an increase of 42%, ex FX would have increased 49%.
- Revenue from advertising was $3.32 billion, a 46% y/y increase.
- Mobile advertising revenue represented approximately 73% of advertising revenue.
- Non-GAAP costs and expenses were $1.70 billion in the first quarter of 2015, up 57% y/y.
- Non-GAAP operating margin was 52% compared to 57% for the first quarter of 2014.
- Free cash flow for the first quarter of 2015 was $1.20 billion.
Conf Call Comments:
- FB and Instagram get 1 out of every 5 minutes spent on mobile.- Expect mobile video to become more important to marketers.
- Mobile remains key driver for FB; Instagram, Messenger and WhatsAp continue to grow.
- Europe and Rest of World growth rates were slowed by FX headwinds.
- Expenses- SBC and Amoritization contributed significantly to GAAP expense growth.
- Revenue Outlook- expect Q2 FX headwinds to be greater than 7% seen in Q1
- Total Payments and Other Fees revs will decline remainder of the year
- Expense Guidance- expect Non-GAAP y/y growth rate 50-60% (prior 50-65%)
- CapEX guidance remains unchanged; SBC $3.0-3.3 bln, reaffirms; Amortization expense guidance remains the same.
>>> Up
*ACCIONA RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT CITI
*BUZZI UNICEM RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*IPSEN RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*KMG EP RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
*NOKIA RAISED TO BUY VS REDUCE AT ODDO
*PREMIER FARNELL RAISED TO OUTPERFORM FROM NEUTRAL AT CREDIT SUISSE
*TIETO RAISED TO BUY AT NORDEA
*VOLVO RAISED TO BUY AT JEFFERIES
>>> Down
*FERRAGAMO CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*HIAG IMMOBILIEN CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE
*PGNIG CUT TO NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
*TELE2 CUT TO SELL VS HOLD AT BERENBERG
*VIENNA INSURANCE CUT TO UNDERPERFORM AT KBW, PT EU31.70
>>> PT Change
>>> Initiation
*JUNGHEINRICH REINITIATED BUY AT BERENBERG, PT EU72.10
*KION GROUP REINITIATED BUY AT BERENBERG, PT EU49
>>> Call
>> Stock
*FRESENIUS MEDICAL CARE REMOVED FROM ALPHA LIST AT BERENBERG
*KMG EP ADDED, NOVATEK REMOVED FROM GOLDMAN CEEMEA FOCUS LIST
>> Sector
*INTERNATIONAL PERSONAL FINANCE RAISED TO SECTOR PERFORM AT RBC
Dow+0,49% S&P+0,51% Nasdaq+0,42% Russell+0,10% VIX 12.71 (-4.08%)
US Market closed slightly higher, volume were above average @ 735mil. shares but still a very quite session, Visa & Mastercard traded higher on news that China will allow foreign card processors to compete with UnionPay. energy sector finished among the leaders even though crude oil fell 0.6% to $56.28/bbl. US After Hours AFOP +6.9%, EBAY +6.1%, CAKE +5.6%, MOBL -29.0%, TXN -6.5%, LVS -4.2%, FB -2.1% following earnings/guidance...ARRS +24.5% on Takeover news of Pace...NCR +2.3% on WSJ article on strategic options...MOBL -29% on CFO resignation...Leading manufacturing indicators for the Far East bode a difficult start for Q2, as both advance PMIs for China and Japan showed significant deterioration. In China, flash manufacturing PMI remained in contraction for the 4th straight month and also marked a 1-year low at 49.2. New orders and both input and output prices decreased at a faster rate, signalling poor domestic demand and disinflationary pressures. On the bright side, employment continued to decrease but at a slower rate and export orders increased. Morning session was volatile, with more signs of hot money flowing into the stock market...Japan data was similarly troublesome, as manufacturing PMI fell into contraction for the first time in 11 months. New orders fell for the 2nd month, and Markit economist remarked the data signal worsening operating conditions. BOJ Gov Kuroda commentary offered little new, reiterating the economy is in gradual recover. Even though Kuroda said core CPI is at 0%, he still saw 2% inflation within reach.
Nikkei +0.11% Hang Seng +0.47% Shanghai +0.55%
Eur$ 1.0708 RUB $52.2816 CHFEUR 0.9631 GBPEUR 1.4037 GBP 1.5029 CHF 0.9697 WTI $56.29 (+0.23%)
S&P -0.05% EuroStoxx +0.38% Dax +0.46% SMI +0.77%
Macro :
- EU Plans to Double Southern Border Control Funding, WSJ Says
- HSBC China April Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.2; Est. 49.6
- Kepler Says Expect the Unexpected in M&A; Lists Takeover Targets (Pop. Emilia, Pop. Milano, IKB, Monte Paschi, Clariant, DSM, Lanxess, Hochtief, Lindt, Parmalat, S&T, DIC Asset, AMS, Suss Microtec, Alerion)
Keep an eye on :
- AARCAD NA : Arcadis Confirms 2015 Outlook, Says Hyder Integration on Track
- BAYN GY : Bayer, Syngenta Pesticides Harming Bees, Study Says: FT
- BIM FP : BioMerieux Says 1Q Organic Sales Growth Exceeded Annual Target
- BP/ LN : BP Discovers New Gas Reserves Off Alexandria, Ahram Gate Reports
- GBF GY : Bilfinger Cuts FY Outlook; Sees ‘Significant’ Ebita Decline
- CABK SM : CaixaBank 1Q Net EU375M, Compares With EU364.9M Estimate
- CLN VX : Clariant does not have scale to resist approaches for long – bankers - Deal Reporter
- CLN VX : Clariant Chemicals Falls After Board Approves Share Buyback
- DAI GY : China Fines Mercedes-Benz 350m Yuan for Price Monopoly: Xinhua
- DSY FP : Dassault Systemes 1Q Non-IFRS Rev. Beats; Adjusts Outlook
- DBK GY : Deutsche Bank Said to Pay $2.14b to Resolve Libor Probes
- EDP PL : EDP 1Q Total Generation Output Falls 9% Y/y
- ENI IM : Eni Cut to A- From A by S&P, Outlook Stable
- ERICB SS : Ericsson 1Q Gross Margin Misses Est., Ericsson Networks Unit Profitability Declines in 1Q
- HSBA LN : HSBC’s CEO, Chair Said to Want to Stay Until End of 2017: FT
- LOGN VX : Logitech 4Q Sales $467m, Up 1% in Constant Currency
- LHA GY : Lufthansa Said to Ponder DAX Exit Risks: Handelsblatt
- MELE BB : Melexis 1Q EPS EU0.67; Est. EU0.59; Raises FY Rev. Forecast
- ML FP : Michelin 1Q Sales Beat Est.; FY Outlook Confirmed, Plans Buyback
- MOBB BB : Mobistar 1Q Adj. Ebitda Beats; Service Rev., Postpaid Adds Miss
- NOK1V FH : Nokia Said to Target Apple, Alibaba, Amazon in Maps-Unit Sale
- NSG NO : Norske Skog Posts Unexpected 1Q Net Profit After Bond Exchange
- GND FP : Norbert Dentressangle 1Q Rev. EU1.3b vs Est. EU1.36b (2 Ests.)
- NOVN VX : Novartis 1Q Diovan Sales Beat Ests. Despite Generics
- NOVN VX : Novartis CEO Says Looking for Bolt-on Acquisitions of $2B-$5B
- RI FP : Pernod 3Q Organic Sales Up 7%, Confirms FY Outlook
- RNO FP : Renault Raised to Investment Grade by S&P
- SEB SS : SEB 1Q Operating Profit Beats Est.; Loan Losses Lower
- SIE GY : Siemens Sees No Change to Summer ’15 Closing of DRC Deal
- SIOE BB : Sioen 1Q Revenue Rises 5.5% to EU86 Mln vs EU81.5 Mln
- SIP BB : Sipef 1Q Own Palm Oil Output 48.6K Metric Tons; Est. 49.2K MT
- TEC FP : Technip 1Q Adj. Ebitda EU243.7m vs Est. EU272.1m; Margin 8.5%, ‘Remains Cautious’ About 2015, CFO
- TCH FP : Technicolor Says 1Q Performance Strong, Confirms 2015 Goals
- VIE FP : Veolia to Get Double-Voting Rights Following Shareholder Vote
- VOLVB SS : Volvo Raised to Buy From Sell at SocGen on Multiple Catalysts
- WRT1V FH : Wartsila 1Q Net, EPS Meet Ests.; Says Services Were 1Q Highlight
- ZO1 GY : Zooplus 1Q Total Sales Rises 34%; Raises 2015 Total Sales Goal
Deal Reporter
* Scale impedes competitiveness on global basis - bankers
* Evonik seen under pressure to do deal
* Clariant has no hostile bid defence mechanisms
Clariant AG [VTX:CLN] may not be able to resist takeover approaches as long as momentum for consolidation in the sector gathers pace and it lacks the scale to be a global player, three bankers said.
Even if Clariant continues to claim it is not for sale, it is still an obvious target and will not be able to remain a standalone entity, one banker said. “If you’re not a company with EUR 10bn revenue, you’re too small to be a global player.” Clariant cannot continue to be globally competitive as a standalone company, two other bankers agreed.
Clariant declined to comment on market speculation.
Evonik Industries AG [ETR:EVK], Dow Chemical [NYSE:DOW] and Johnson Matthey [LON:ETR] have all been tipped as potential bidders for Clariant. Reports last month claimed Evonik was preparing a CHF 23 per share offer, but these were swiftly shot down by Clariant management. Clariant’s chairman Rudolf Wehrli publicly rejected the idea of a takeover by Evonik, while a company spokesperson said there had been no formal talks between the two companies.
Clariant’s management will not consider its job done, and is unlikely to willingly cash out at CHF 23 per share, the second banker said. But, a hostile bid cannot be ruled out, he said.
The protective mechanisms Clariant once had against hostile bids are now lapsed or irrelevant, two bankers said. A Clariant spokesperson declined to comment on the existence of any hostile takeover protections. The company’s articles of association do not mention any impediments to unsolicited or hostile takeover approaches.
The third banker said the 27% premium implied by the rumoured CHF 23 per share offer was “not great”, but it offered a decent 10x EV/EBITDA valuation. Shareholders would likely sell if a slightly higher premium was offered, this banker and the first one said. Clariant’s shareholders would be unlikely to back the company’s present strategy in the face of a decent premium, a fourth banker agreed.
Clariant has been giving some bullish guidance – targeting between 16-19% EBITDA margins - but has not been able to hit those targets, the second banker said.
The company’s 2014 overall EBITDA margin was 14.2%, up from 14.1% in 2013. Group sales increased by CHF 40m to CHF 6.116bn over the same period and net income decreased 37% to CHF 235m. Earnings per share are at their lowest point in at least five years at CHF 0.55.
In addition to this, it trades at a discount to its peer group. Clariant was trading at 9.1x EV/EBITDA on Tuesday before a slight bump on renewed speculation today. Croda International [LON:CRDA] was trading at 15.1x, Johnson Matthey was at 13.7x, Koninklijke DSM N.V [AMS:DSM] was at 11.1x and Evonik was trading at 9.49x EBITDA.
While bankers agreed that Clariant’s management are well regarded, they did not see it insulated against a potential hostile approach if it takes a firm stance against approaches.
All four bankers saw Evonik as a potential hostile bidder. Evonik is under pressure from its shareholders to make a transformational acquisition, the fourth banker explained.
US majors Dow and E I DuPont De Nemours [NYSE:DD] have the balance sheets to acquire but are not as likely given they both have activist investors to satisfy before splashing out on potentially high-premium acquisitions, said the second banker. Clariant also has a high European cost base, he said.
BASF AG [ETR:BAS] could also look at a bid, he said.
Meanwhile Evonik has also been linked to a potential bid for DSM and Croda. DSM could be a good target because it has just gone through a restructuring, the first and fourth bankers said. However it is slightly too big for Evonik, the fourth banker said. A deal with DSM would need to be a merger of equals as it was a large and a “national champion” in the Netherlands, the second banker agreed.
Croda on the other hand could be too small for Evonik’s transformational deal, said the fourth banker. There is also the view that its valuation is too high, said the first and second bankers.
After Hours Summary: AFOP +6.9%, EBAY +6.1%, CAKE +5.6%, MOBL -29.0%, TXN -6.5%, LVS -4.2%, FB -2.1% following earnings/guidance
After Hours Gainers:
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: AFOP +6.9%, EBAY +6.1%, MKSI +6.1%, SLM +5.6%, CAKE +5.6%, SGMO +4.7%, FUEL +4.2%, ORLY +3.8%, SCSS +3.3%, CLGX +3.2%, SKX +2.6%, NEU +2.1%, CLB +1.8%, T +1.3%, EGBN +0.8%, CTXS +0.7%, ALGT +0.5%, EBS +0.5%, MPWR +0.5%, CVA +0.2%, PLCM +0.1%
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: ARRS +24.5% (to acquire Pace plc for $2.1 bln in stock and cash; expected to be accretive to non-GAAP EPS in first 12 months), TRCO +5.1% (priced secondary offering of ~9.24 mln shares of common stock at $56 per share), NCR +2.3% (WSJ reporting co is exploring strategic options including divestitures, buybacks, or dividend), CONN +1.4% (Point72 Asset Management disclosed 5.0% passive stake in 13G filing), ISIS +0.8% (reported positive data from its ISIS-TTR Rx study to treat patients with TTR Amyloidosis, demonstrating up to a 92% reduction in transthyretin proteins)
After Hours Losers:
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: MOBL -29.0%, TXN -6.5%, LVS -4.2%, OII -3.7%, XLNX -3.3%, TSCO -3.1%, FFIV -2.8%, QCOM -2.8%, WFT -2.8%, FB -2.1%, VMI -1.6%, MCRI -1.5%, KNX -0.9%, FISI -0.8%, USTR -0.5%, AMP -0.5%, CVBF -0.5%, EXPO -0.4%, EFX -0.3%, NFBK -0.3%, GGG -0.2%, TCBI -0.2%, FTK -0.2%
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: MOBL -29.0% (announced CFO has resigned to join another company; co also lowered Q1 non-GAAP revenue guidance), GWPH -6.2% (announced new physician reports of clinical effect and safety associated with the Epidiolex expanded access program: median 54% reduction in seizures after 12 weeks treatment and maintenance of clinical effect at 24 weeks), IDCC +1.9% (weakness attributed to unfavorable Delware court ruling), RY -0.6% (filed registration statement for $15 bln offering of covered bonds)