(BFW) Macron Says France Will Probably Use Option to buy Alstom Stake

BFW 05/28 10:25 *MACRON: GOVT COULD TAKE ALSTOM STAKE IN CERTAIN CIRCUMSTANCES
BN 05/28 10:24 *MACRON: GOVT COULD TAKE ALSTOM STAKE IN CERTAIN CIRCUMSTANCES
BN 05/28 10:23 *FRENCH ECONOMY MINISTER MACRON SPOKE IN BELFORT, FRANCE
BN 05/28 10:22 *MACRON SAYS WILL TRY TO AVOID JOB CUTS AT ALSTOM TRANSPORT
Macron Says France Will Probably Use Option to buy Alstom Stake
2015-05-28 11:55:46.461 GMT


By Francois de Beaupuy
(Bloomberg) -- French Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron
repeats that France will have 20% of Alstom’s voting rights from
Bouygues once GE-Alstom Energy deal is closed. He also said
during a visit in Alstom plant in Belfort, Eastern France, that:
* France will use option to buy Alstom stake from Bouygues if
necessary
* France is working to avoid job cuts at Alstom Transport;
SNCF will launch EU50m tender for technical studies on new
high-speed trains
* There is a potential market for 200 new high-speed trains in
France near term, and another 200 trains abroad; says Amtrak
will probably launch high-speed train tender for Washington-
Boston service in September
* France has signed deal with Morocco that will provide tram
orders for Alstom; Alstom also has prospects to sell
locomotives to Akiem, SBB
* Macron regrets that EDF bid for part of Areva was leaked to
press, as well as public comments on the matter


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>>> Aurubis - Interesting Chart Configuration - Stock could break out and trade

>>> Aurubis - Interesting Chart Configuration - Stock could break out and trade higher

trading @ 57.15/.20, next restitance 58.25/.32 to test the highs on the 60.5/61.25 levels...

We are Buyer on the name for HF, State of Lower Saxony hold a 26.5% stake in the name aznd SZG 10%, few years ago Salzgitter was rumored to be interested to i ncrease its stake int he company....

Stock is trading above 2012 levels, could see some annoucment soon to explain such a move...

(BFW) Sky Walks Away From Mediaset Alliance Talks: Telegraph (Yday)

Sky Walks Away From Mediaset Alliance Talks: Telegraph (Yday)
2015-05-28 06:59:22.458 GMT


By Kasper Viita
(Bloomberg) -- Discussions broke down on disagreement over
valuation of Mediaset Premium, how much equity in Italian JV
would be controlled by Mediaset, Telegraph reports, citing
anonymous sources.
* May 21: BofAML likes Mediaset’s position in potential Sky
alliance


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To contact the reporter on this story:
Kasper Viita in London at +44-203-525-9219 or
kviita1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
James Ludden at +44-20-3525-2645 or
jludden@bloomberg.net
Brian Lysaght

>>> Stocks in Shanghai Plummet, -6.5%...

Stocks in Shanghai Plummet
Investors spooked by stake sales of Chinese banks by sovereign-wealth fund

Stocks in Shanghai fell sharply on Thursday, as stake sales of two state-owned banks by a Chinese sovereign-wealth fund rattled investors.

The Shanghai Composite Index fell as much as 6.6% in the afternoon session and closed down 6.5%, after disclosures that Central Huijin Investment Ltd. was selling shares of Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and China Construction Bank Corp. The stakes involved are tiny—a few percentage points each—but they were enough to send Shanghai reeling by the most since Jan. 19, when the market dropped 7.8%.

“The China market is basically trading like a yo-yo,” said Steve Wang, research director at Reorient Financial. “It’s retail driven, people just follow the trend. It’s literally a roller coaster.”

ICBC was down 3.3% and China Construction Bank fell 5.8% in Shanghai.

(GS) A style manager’s guide to stock, picking in a low dispersion market

A style manager’s guide to stock, picking in a low dispersion market

Identifying active vs. passive stocks for growth and value managers

Growth and value managers misallocate active share
We find that the average style manager allocates the lowest amount of
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In addition, we identify the stocks on which fund managers typically take
significant active share but would be better served by indexing.

>>> Mylan invites Pfizer and Novartis to consider taking over

Mylan invites Pfizer and Novartis to consider taking over (translated)

US pharmaceutical group Mylan is not for sale to its Israeli competitor Teva, but Mylan has invited US pharmaceutical company Pfizer and Swiss pharmaceutical group Novartis to look into a takeover of the group, the Financieele Dagblad reported, citing an interview with Mylan CEO Robert Coury.

In Apri, Teva announced an interest in acquiring Mylan. This led to a battle within the Dutch financial services sector to obtain the legal advisory role for the deal, the item said.

Coury, however, said he does not think Teva is a suitable candidate to acquire Mylan. The only way Teva could potentially fit into the deal is if Mylan is successful in acquiring its Irish market peer Perrigo, for which a bid was made in April; and if Pfizer, which has up to USD 74bn in profits parked in foreign accounts, shows interest in an acquisition of Mylan.

Coury also said he thinks Novartis would be a great, strategically suitable candidate to take over Mylan, because he believes in the company's CEO, Joseph Jimenez. Coury said Jimenez is one of the most balanced and strategically strong CEOs he knows within the pharma sector.

Interested private equity groups do not fit Mylan's culture because they would be too focused on trying to boost profit, Coury said.

Coury is an advocate of the Dutch stakeholder model, in which it is not just about the interests of the shareholders, the report noted.

This is not the first time Pfizer has been tipped as a potential bidder for Mylan. In November 2014, analysts said Mylan would be a good target for Pfizer.

Mylan, which reported a turnover of USD 10bn in 2014, has been registered in the Netherlands since February and has set up a Dutch protection foundation in April. This could be beneficial for Pfizer, which has been hunting for a so-called tax-inversion since last year, to lower its tax rates.

(UBS) Orange/Salt: trading still weak, focused on mobile

Swiss Telcos
Orange/Salt: trading still weak, focused on mobile

* Orange CH results still weak as market share loss continues
Orange CH (#3 mobile operator rebranded to Salt in April) reported Q1 results (prerebranding)
with headline growth impacted by IAS 18 alignment and higher equipment
revenues after having started instalment payment offers from September 2014. Q1
revenues declined by 1.8% YoY like-for-like (vs Q4 +7%) whilst reported revenues
were +3% (vs +17% in Q4) due to lower equipment contribution. Adjusted EBITDA
declined by 3.4% YoY like-for-like (Q4 +7.7% YoY). Within the mix, postpaid net adds
were still weak at -9k (Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 - 13k/6k/1k/6k) and ARPUs were under pressure at
-7%, due to price plan mix. Meanwhile, Net Debt/EBITDA increased to 3.9x (from 3.7x
in Q4), due to negative FX impact.

* Salt focused on mobile – No move towards convergence yet
Salt brand launch (on 23rd April) is creating a positive momentum in terms of qualitative
KPIs (brand consideration) but there was no indication provided on the subscriber
trends. At this stage, Salt proposition remains focused on mobile only with no clarity in
terms of move to convergence. We still think Salt is unlikely to be disruptive in the
Swiss market, given its high financial leverage (c. 4x ND/EBITDA), lack of fixed-line
proposition and a legacy subscriber base (2.2m) that would be impacted by price
competition. That said, if Salt is able to get access to fixed line via Swisscom/UPC, then
it might potentially be aggressive with convergence, although we doubt whether Salt’s
wholesale terms for fibre would be economically as attractive as those of Sunrise.

* M&A remains more likely
We think Xavier Niel could have a different strategy in Switzerland and his entry would
likely accelerate the consolidation in Switzerland between Sunrise and Orange.

* Swiss Telecoms market remains attractive
The Swiss telecoms market continues to remain attractive to us due to benign
regulation and rational pricing. Sunrise trades c.8% 2016E FCF yield, representing
discount to its Swiss peer, Swisscom, offering a 5% FCF yield. However, Sunrise offers
strong cash returns and M&A optionality.

(UBS) TomTom Catch a bolting horse or chasing cars?

* HERE sale drives scarcity value
The prospect of a possible sale of Nokia's mapping asset (HERE) - widely speculated
now at $4bn (Bloomberg 19/5/15) or 2.9x '16E revenue clearly underscores the
strategic value in mapping assets including TomTom. In this note we assess what the
scenarios are for the industry and what the differences are between TomTom and HERE
to derive a value of TomTom. We recognised at the end of 2014 that M&A would be a
driver in mapping in 2015, and this formed part of the reason for us upgrading at the
time from Sell to Neutral. Our analysis now suggests on a sum of the parts basis a
TomTom value of €10.2/share and we remain Neutral.

* Positives in the fundamentals
We see a number of positives in TomTom in addition to the value perceived in mapping
including: 1) Strong automotive bookings driving revenue beyond 2015; 2) According
to our analysis, every 2% increase of content & services as % of sales has a positive
impact of 119bps on gross margin and we expect product mix to improve going
forward; and 3) If Nokia HERE is being acquired by a car manufacturer consortium,
TomTom will become the last independent map data provider.

* Forecast changes
We increase our automotive revenue forecast by 20%/44%, respectively, in '16E/'17E
on the back of strong order bookings, increasing our gross profit by 5%/11% in
'16E/'17E.

* Valuation: DCF-based price target from €7.00 to €10.30 (WACC 9%, g2%)
As is generally the case, management teams of acquiring companies tend to have a
more optimistic view of the strategic longer-term value than our fundamental view of
the value of the cash flow inherent in companies (evidenced in both CSR/Transmode
acquisitions) – arguably reflective of the low cost of financing currently. We believe
TomTom – driven up by M&A in the sector - is the same, and there is an increasing
disconnect between our fair value and others' view of its strategic value. This makes
valuing the entity difficult (the stock is implying c.11% EBIT margins vs 7% '15E). In this
note we revisit this, but we remain Neutral.