>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SANM +12.5%, INFY +11.9%, BXS +2.3%, ABG +1.8%, HOG +1.8%, CNI +1.5%, TRV +1.4%, MAN +1.4%, LXK +1%, AMTD +1%, CCK +0.9%, SBNY +0.7%, WWD +0.6%, STLD +0.6%, EDU +0.6%


Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: IAG +5.9%, ABX +4.2%, KGC +4.2%, AUY +3.8%, AUY +3.8%, GG +3.4%, GFI +3.2%, PAAS +2.7%, GOLD +2.7%, HL +2.4%, AEM +2.3%, RGLD +2.3%, NEM +1.9%, GDX +1.8%, FCX +1.7%, SLW +1.2%, MT +1.1%

Other news: FRO +12.1% (still checking), FNF +4.5% (increases quarterly dividend to $0.21 from $0.19/share; approved new FNF Group three-year stock repurchase program), CNX +3.5% (Southeastern Asset Management discloses 21.1% active stake in 13D filing), CZR +3.2% (enters into a restructuring agreement with holders of a significant amount of CEOC's second-lien notes), GPRO +3% (cont strength), WIT +2.7% (in symp with INFY), CHU +2.7% (reports operational statistics for the month of June 2015), TLOG +1.8% (TetraLogic Pharmaceuticals says it intends to initiate a combination single ascending dose/multiple ascending dose clinical trial, with birinapant as a single agent, in chronic HBV subjects), CNHI +1.6% (still checking), MDCA+1.4% (announced that Miles S. Nadal has retired as CEO and Chairman of the Board; Scott L. Kauffman named Chairman and CEO; Michael Sabatino, formerly Chief Accounting Officer, has resigned; co also reaffirmed FY15 guidance), TOT +0.8% (reports it has started production from Dalia Phase 1A)

Analyst comments: ANAC +3.6% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), GIS +1.6% (upgraded to Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts), COT +1.1% (initiated with a Outperform at Credit Suisse), FB +1% (added to US 1 List at BofA/Merrill ), PYPL +0.8% (initiated with a Buy at BTIG Research, among others)

(BFW) Global M&A to Accelerate Led by Health, Technology, UBS Says

Global M&A to Accelerate Led by Health, Technology, UBS Says
2015-07-21 10:15:24.799 GMT


By Brian Lysaght
(Bloomberg) -- Global M&A “boom” that started in 2014 is
set to accelerate as funding costs, balance sheet strength and
corporate confidence are well aligned, UBS says in note.

* Other positive factors include abundant PE funding and
increased shareholder activism
* Global M&A volumes to grow by 22% this year; deal emphasis
is on top-line growth
* Technology (especially software and services), health care
and capital goods companies are the likeliest acquirers in
the U.S., where 46% of global deals were done in 1H
* In Europe, prospective acquirers include semiconductors,
utilities and capital goods: UBS
* NOTE: Total M&A volume YTD is 14,414 deals worth $2.7t, with
the largest being Shell’s proposed acquisition of BG Group
and Charter Communications’ offer for Time Warner Cable,
both ~$79b: Bloomberg data

For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

--With assistance from Gaurav Panchal in London.

To contact the reporter on this story:
Brian Lysaght in London at +44-20-3525-7908 or
blysaght@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
James Ludden at +44-20-3525-2645 or
jludden@bloomberg.net
Brian Lysaght

(BFW) Nokia Nears Deal to Sell HERE Maps Unit to German Carmakers

Nokia Nears Deal to Sell HERE Maps Unit to German Carmakers
2015-07-21 09:35:21.112 GMT


By Elisabeth Behrmann, Naomi Kresge and Adam Ewing
(Bloomberg) -- Nokia is nearing agreement to sell its maps
business HERE to carmakers BMW, Daimler and Audi, according to
people familiar with the matter.

* Agreement could be reached as early as next week, with
announcement targeted for around July 31
* Talks could still fall apart on final details, such as
intellectual property rights
* See full story


For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

To contact the reporters on this story:
Elisabeth Behrmann in Munich at +49-89-24447-8801 or
ebehrmann1@bloomberg.net;
Naomi Kresge in Berlin at +49-30-70010-6233 or
nkresge@bloomberg.net;
Adam Ewing in Stockholm at +46-8-610-0706 or
aewing5@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
James Ludden at +44-20-3525-2645 or
jludden@bloomberg.net
Kasper Viita

(GS) GOAL : Europe Equities Upgraded to Overweight

2H outlook: Riskier recovery; near-term relief but risks remain

* Remain pro-risk as tail risks are easing
Following a very risk-friendly 1Q15, the second quarter was characterised by large drawdowns in risky assets and high volatility in equities, rates and credit. With an improving global growth outlook, improved prospects for the approval of the Greek bailout deal, and better China data, we remain pro-risk in our asset allocation. We upgrade our 3-month European equities view to Overweight, in line with our 12-month view. Valuations and fundamentals look more attractive with tail risks fading, at least near-term.

* Elevated volatility and less stable bond/equity correlation
Cross-asset volatility has been higher with the bond sell-off in May and risks from Greece and China. While Greek risks are fading, some Euro area political risks remain. And we expect rate volatility to remain elevated. This
is likely to result in a less stable equity/bond yield correlation. As a result, bonds are unlikely to be good risk-off hedges. We like shorts in US rates and long the US dollar against both the euro and yen as hedges for rate
shocks. Implied equity volatility has declined materially – we like puts on MSCI EM (in US$), for which implied volatility is comparably low.

* Four key macro drivers in 2H
(1) Europe, balancing better growth against political risks; (2) US growth recovery driving the first Fed rate hike; (3) commodity prices declining further; and (4) China macro and market volatility and broad EM pressures.

FT : Markets, data and official hints point to a rate rise

Markets, data and official hints point to a rate rise

Falling gold and rising wages strengthen the case for tightening soon

More than Greece, more even than the Shanghai stock market, the US interest rate cycle obsesses financial markets. The dollar retains a worldwide pre-eminence, both as a yardstick of value and the medium through which much of global finance is delivered. No part of the world economy can be indifferent to US monetary conditions.
Ever since US rates hit rock-bottom in 2008, there has been speculation about the return to normality. Now the evidence is beginning to accumulate — from markets, economic data and official hints — that the next few months could finally see a bend in the curve.

One augury can be found in the price of gold, which on Monday plumbed a five-year low of $1,088. As a monetary mechanism, bullion no longer matters as it did when central banks needed vaults full of it as their means of settlement. But gold still says much about sentiment. Its ascent to $1,900 per ounce tracked the collapse of investor confidence in the wake of banking and sovereign debt crises. Gold remained expensive for as long as the authorities appeared unable to restart growth. Now, whether it be inflation, financial contagion or economic weakness, investors are no longer as nervous, and consequently see less value in buying tonnes of an inert yellow metal.
Gold’s recent skittishness may partly stem from its own idiosyncrasies: the release of figures breaking down Chinese reserves came in unexpectedly low, for example. But other signs of confidence are unmistakable. In 2012, a protracted stand-off between Greece and the rest of the eurozone led to carnage in European bond markets. This time around, their response has been to shrug. There is a similarly sanguine reaction beyond China to its stock market gyrations. Even as the Shanghai Composite lost 30 per cent in value, the S&P 500 flirted with all-time highs, and a measure of market volatility reached its lowest point in two and a half years.
Economic reasons for delaying a rise are melting away. One is the persistence of low inflation. Central banks have been at pains to emphasise the difference between good deflation, which stems from a positive supply shock, and the bad kind, brought about by weak spending. The past year has been all about the first sort, as plummeting oil and other commodity prices have granted developed economies a helpful boost to their incomes. However much headline inflation is dragged down, such effects ought not to linger for more than a year or so.
Recent experience helps to dispel another reason for delay, which is the risk of low inflation feeding through into weaker wages. Faster growing economies are instead seeing pay rises returning to normal levels. As a result, signs that the oil price is slipping again ought to be interpreted as unambiguously positive for growth.
Lastly, in the US and UK there has been a gradual conversion to the merits of early action. While the Federal Reserve and Bank of England are not exactly racing one another to the first rate rise, their respective bosses show a newfound eagerness to discuss it. In speeches studded with caveats, Janet Yellen and Mark Carney each hinted at rates beginning to rise by the turn of the year. Both elevate data over dogma; Mr Carney described how the BoE needs to “feel its way as it goes”, echoing the approach of his US counterpart.
The era of zero interest rates has not proven kind to those fond of confident market forecasts. In light of this a little circumspection from central banks is understandable. But in recent weeks all of the straws in the wind have started to drift in the same general direction. A turn in the monetary cycle may at last be on the cards.

>>> Realia to be excluded from small cap index from 27 July as Soros and Slim pu

Realia to be excluded from small cap index from 27 July as Soros and Slim public tenders weighed

Realia will be excluded from the Ibex small cap index from 27 July as a temporary measure while public tenders from Carlos Slim and from George Soros’ controlled vehicle Hispania are weighed, Cinco Dias reported.

Both offers are for up to 100% of the company’s equity. Moreover, both offers fall below the current Realia share price. Slim is offering EUR 0.58 per share, a price 18% higher than that of Soros’ Hispania vehicle, the report said.

Hispania’s offer, however, has the support of Realia’s largest creditors: Fortress, King Street and Goldman Sachs. The three funds hold EUR 790m of the EUR 1bn debt load of the company, the report noted.

The Slim offer was made via Carso Inmobiliaria, as reported.

Cinco Dias, previously reported intelligence

(BFW) Switzerland June Watch Exports Rose 3.3% Y/Y

Switzerland June Watch Exports Rose 3.3% Y/Y
2015-07-21 06:08:33.491 GMT


By Kristian Siedenburg
(Bloomberg) -- Swiss watch exports rose 3.3% in
June from a year ago, the Federation of the Swiss Watch
Industry says in a statement.

* Total watch exports up 3.3% y/y; value CHF1.929b
*
* Wrist watches up 3.1% y/y; value CHF1.819b
* Hong Kong down 21.2% y/y; value CHF256.2m
* USA up 4.7% y/y; value CHF195.4m
* Italy up 24.9% y/y; value CHF149.7m
* United Kingdom up 34.8% y/y; value CHF122.1m
* Japan up 1.7% y/y; value CHF119.8m
* France up 24.4% y/y; value CHF118.2m


For Related News and Information:
For more information on Swiss economic releases: ECO SZ <GO>
For tickers on Swiss trade balance: ALLX SZTB <GO>
For a CHART comparing the percent change in Swiss watch exports (RED)
line to Switzerland’s GDP (GRAY) histogram click G ECO 42 <GO>


To contact the reporter on this story:
Kristian Siedenburg in Vienna at +43-1-513-266011 or ksiedenburg@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Marco Babic at +41-44-224-4112 or mbabic@bloomberg.net
Mark Evans

(DB) Orange Downgrade to Hold - Nothing really new - comment on French Consolida

Call look opportunitisc ahead of summer and after a great performance...comment on French Consolidation and EM acquisitions.

..." We attribute a 40% probability to French mobile consolidation in the next 12 months, implying better mobile ARPU for Orange (we assume stable ARPU at E23.4, instead of a 9% fall to E20.4 by 2018) and higher margins (+0.5pp in 2016 and +1pp in 2017-18 to 41%, with an unchanged 40% terminal margin) and assume E1bn spent on 700Mhz spectrum auction..."

see note attached