(DB) Orange Downgrade to Hold - Nothing really new - comment on French Consolida

Call look opportunitisc ahead of summer and after a great performance...comment on French Consolidation and EM acquisitions.

..." We attribute a 40% probability to French mobile consolidation in the next 12 months, implying better mobile ARPU for Orange (we assume stable ARPU at E23.4, instead of a 9% fall to E20.4 by 2018) and higher margins (+0.5pp in 2016 and +1pp in 2017-18 to 41%, with an unchanged 40% terminal margin) and assume E1bn spent on 700Mhz spectrum auction..."

see note attached