Adding: Maersk, Ocado, Prudential, Tullow and Wienerberger
* Market turbulence presents opportunities
We add five names to the Directors of Research Focus List (DoR FL), all of
which have underperformed the broader market (SXXP) over the past three
months. In each case, we believe recent weakness creates an attractive entry
point into a structurally well positioned company. Across the FL, we continue
to favour exposure to key themes, including M&A, corporate restructuring
and the European recovery.
* Ocado: Beneficiary of grocery channel shift, Amazon risk overdone
Ocado has an industry-leading solution to online grocery delivery, allowing
increasing asset turn in the UK and expansion opportunities into international
markets. In our analysts’ view, recent concerns over the entry of Amazon
Fresh (which have seen the stock fall 20% over one month) are overdone.
* Prudential: Multi-year compounder at discount valuation
Prudential has a unique and diversified franchise. Our analysts think delivery
of its successful existing strategy, coupled with even sharper execution
under the new CEO, will continue to drive significantly better earnings and
dividend growth than for most of our European insurance coverage.
* Tullow: Key strategic assets at a compelling valuation
With an average breakeven of $38/bl for its 3 growth projects (TEN, Uganda
& Kenya), Tullow screens as an attractive target in the global E&P space. Our
analysts’ believe the company’s high financial leverage also gives the majors
an opportunity to refinance the company at a lower cost of capital.
* Wienerberger: Lending surveys support construction recovery
A play on European construction recovery, Wienerberger’s 2016 growth is
supported by lead indicators, in our analysts’ view. At 8.2x 2015E EV/EBITDA,
Wienerberger is the only building materials stock trading materially below
mid-cycle multiples, despite earnings being among the most depressed.
* Maersk: Recovery & restructuring option at trough valuation
Trading at just 8.8x 2016E P/E, Maersk’s potential earnings growth (15% in
2016E driven by cost savings and recovery in global trade) and returns
(11% ROE/ROIC vs. c.8% WACC) are undervalued, in our analysts’ view.
Medium term, they believe potential further portfolio streamlining could
drive a re-rating.