(Wansquare) The secret weapon for activists get their way

(French original version attached)

Activists often investors need only a very participation minority to make their voice heard and get seats in the boards of their targets. Behind them, mutual funds are valuable allies in this fight.

The American press review of last weekend was eloquent on weight made by activist investors in US markets: Paulson & Co. bought Valeant securities and Starwood Hotels, the manager David Einhorn increased its exposure to General Motors, Nelson Peltz activist revealed a 7% share the distributor Sysco etc. According to JP Morgan, said fund activists alone hold $ 130 billion, and we can extend this to $ 350 billion if we include general funds that launch occasionally in this type of campaign.

To put these envelopes at work, activists seek larger targets, like Bill Ackman who invested $ 5.5 billion in Mondelez, or ValueAct, who bet $ 1 billion at American Express. And to be heard with these behemoths of the rating,
Investors have new partners: mutual funds, these large institutional shareholders who are for the long term and were generally close management. Today, they no longer hesitate to quietly support these agitators when they consider their strategy relevant. So ValueAct had obtained a seat on the board of Microsoft two years ago with less than 1% of the capital through the support of its allies internally. Starboard Value was also supported in his fight to increase the dividend from General Motors, and Nelson Peltz was surrounded to order a replacement management DuPont, although it ultimately failed. According to Rivel Research's survey of 350 mutual funds, half of them have been contacted in the year by activists and 45% agreed to promote their cause.

With their powerful allies, activists manage increasingly to break into corporate boards: they won 107 seats
2014 and 86 already in the first half of 2015, a success rate of 73% (against 52% in 2012), according to FactSet. And that, even though their average attendance declined by 7.7% in 2006 to 6.1% last year, proof that they can now get their way with less.

But to do this, they are also resolved to mature, to change their style and vocabulary: those who vied
verbal abuse to point the finger irresponsible management executives are now more subtle. They start with the rent
dedication of these bosses, before suggesting them to "consider" the spinoffs or redemptions of shares or appoint directors independent. Some, like Carl Icahn, have kept their vehemence, so that when he demanded $ 50 billion to buy back securities Apple, it has run into opposition from shareholders funds, including BlackRock. The boss of the latter, Larry Finck, has also publicly expressed concern about the rise of activism in US companies, which bring to favor short-term actions rather than on the basis of investment projects and growth. Meanwhile, Apple has not only yielded to the demands of its activist, he increased its return program to shareholders to $ 200 billion by 2017.

>>> Asda sales decline accelerates

Cut throat competition in the UK grocery sector is not making life easy for Asda, the UK arm of Wal-Mart.
Asda has posted its fourth consecutive quarter of falling sales. Sales excluding fuel at stores open more than a year - the measure commonly referred to as "like for like" - have dropped 4.7 per cent in the company's second quarter, the 11 weeks to June 30. This is an acceleration from the 3.9 per cent sales decline in the first quarter of the year.
The most recent supermarket share data from the well respected research group Kantar Worldpanel showed Asda is suffering the most among the big four UK grocers, as its sales fell 2.7 per cent in the 12 weeks to July 20 versus the same period a year ago.
The major supermarket chains have been waging a bitter price war as they seek to stem the loss of customers to the expanding German discount chains, Aldi and Lidl, writes Nathalie Thomas.
Asda president and chief executive Andy Clarke described the second quarter performance as "disappointing" but insisted they reflect a short-term picture. He said:
We continue to navigate a steady course through the worst storm in retail history, despite another challenging quarter. Predicting that 2015 was going to be a volatile year I didn't expect to report a positive sales figure, but I'm not distracted by the short-term picture. We have an enviably stable business with balanced books and the right strategy to return us to sales growth.

Fast FT : Offshore RMB at biggest discount since 2011

The offshore renminbi, which is traded by foreign investors, has hit its biggest discount to the official onshore rate since 2011, indicating markets believe the Chinese currency has further to depreciate after the nation's central bank unexpectedly devalued it this week.
On Thursday, the offshore rate traded at a 1 per cent discount to its onshore counterpart, which was the biggest since October 13, 2011. The gap had been trimmed to 0.8 per cent on Friday, with the onshore renminbi fetching Rmb6.312 to the US dollar and the offshore rate at Rmb6.4408, writes Peter Wells.
The offshore renminbi has depreciated 3.6 per cent this week, while the onshore rate has weakened by 2.9 per cent.
The divergence between the two exchange rates may unsettle the People's Bank of China, which has an ultimate goal for them to converge as it works to gradually give market forces more influence over its still-heavily controlled currency.
In a rare press conference on Thursday, the People's Bank of China said there was no basis for markets to expect a continued depreciation in the renminbi. It also set the reference rate slightly stronger against the US dollar on Friday morning at Rmb6.3975.
"You'd assume the PBoC would prefer an orderly depreciation," TD Securities Asia-Pacific strategist Annette Beacher told FastFT. "And so far the market does seem mature enough to handle a new regime in a short space of time."
The onshore rate, known as CNY, is the renminbi's exchange rate when traded on the mainland. The offshore rate, CNH, is the rate when the renminbi trades elsewhere, mostly in Hong Kong. The onshore rate can only trade 2 per cent either side of the PBoC's daily fix. The offshore rate is not limited by a trading band, however, and is viewed as a proxy for where international markets believe the renminbi should be against the dollar.
Historically, the spread between the two exchange rates has been relatively small owing to the fact the onshore renminbi is kept on a tight leash and investors were not expecting the PBoC to take steps to change its currency regime.

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers

Gapping up: ESPR +11.8%, TSL +8.1%, QTM +6.5%, FN +5%, CMCM +4.9%, AVEO +4.7%, NNA +4.1%, JUNO +3.2%, SGEN +2.9%, GFI +2.9%, IQNT +2.2%, ING +1.6%, ONE +1.5%, URBN +1%, HTHT +1%, HD +0.7%

Gapping down: APP -16.5%, MTZ -7.5%, NBG -5.9%, HMY -3.8%, JD -3%, WMT -2.7%, BHP -2.3%, TEDU -2.2%, YOKU -2.1%, YY -1.8%, FCX -1.7%, SUNE -1.6%, STO -1.6%, WB -1.6%, BABA -1.6%, X -1.6%, YHOO -1.5%, MT -1.4%, RIO -1.2%, SSL -1.1%, TOT -1%, AA -0.8%, RDS.A -0.8%

>>> Wal-Mart misses by $0.04, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 EPS below consensu

--> -2.44% in pre open - 23k shares traded

Wal-Mart misses by $0.04, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 EPS below consensus; lowers FY16 EPS below consensus

  • Reports Q2 (Jul) earnings of $1.08 per share, $0.04 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $1.12; revenues were unchanged from the year-ago period at $119.33 bln vs. $119.13 bln consensus.
    • U.S. Q2 comps +1.5% vs ~1% guidance and flat last year; driven by traffic of 1.3%. Neighborhood Market comps increased ~ 7.3%, with strong growth from new stores. E-commerce sales globally increased ~ 16% on a constant currency basis. Gross merchandise value, or GMV, increased ~ 18% on a constant currency basis.
    • Q2 earnings were pressured by currency fluctuations, lower Walmart U.S. margins and investments in customer experience. Consolidated operating income declined 10%.
  • Co issues downside guidance for Q3, sees EPS of $0.93-1.05 vs. $1.08 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
    • Sees Walmart US comps +1-2%, Sams w/o fuel +0-2%
  • Co issues downside guidance for FY16, lowers EPS to $4.40-4.70 from $4.70-5.05 vs. $4.76 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
    • The impact from investments in wages, training and additional hours in our stores and clubs will be ~ $0.24; FX: ~$0.15; eCommerce investment ~$0.06-0.09

>>> Trina Solar beats by $0.16, beats on revs; Q2 module shipments top guidance;

Trina Solar beats by $0.16, beats on revs; Q2 module shipments top guidance; raises FY15 shipment guidance

Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings per ADS of $0.42 per share, $0.16 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.26; revenues rose 39.2% year/year to $722.9 mln vs the $660.9 mln consensus.
  • Total module shipments from the Company's manufacturing facilities were 1,231.6 MW (guidance was 1100-1140 MW), consisting of 1,000.7 MW of external shipments and 230.9 MW of shipments to the Company's own downstream PV power projects, an increase of 20.0% sequentially and 30.6% YoY.
  • Q3 Guidance: The Company expects to ship between 1,450 MW and 1,500 MW of PV modules, of which 170 MW to 190 MW will be shipped to the Company's downstream PV projects. Co expects to connect 180 MW to 200 MW of PV projects to the grid in the third quarter of 2015.
  • Co raised its guidance for 2015 total PV module shipments to 4.9 GW to 5.1 GW from its original guidance of 4.4 GW to 4.6 GW, of which 700 MW to 800 MW of PV modules will be shipped to the Company's PV power projects. The total shipment volume represents an increase of 33.9% to 39.3% from 2014.
  • "China is poised to generate even greater demand as the Chinese government made renewable energy a top priority and is strongly committed to achieving its 2015 grid connection target."

>>> Home Depot beats by $0.02, beats on revs; Q2 comps +4.2%; raises FY16 guidan

--> HD -0.58% pre open

Home Depot beats by $0.02, beats on revs; Q2 comps +4.2%; raises FY16 guidance to reflect acquisition of Interline Brands

Reports Q2 (Jul) earnings of $1.71 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.02 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $1.69; revenues rose 16.9% year/year to $27.83 bln vs the $24.69 bln consensus. Comparable store sales for Q2 were +4.2%, and comp sales for U.S. stores were +5.7%.
  • Co issues guidance for FY16 (reflecting acquisition of Interline Brands) raises EPS to $5.31-5.36 from $5.24-5.27, may not be comparable to $5.29 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; raises FY16 revs to +5.2-6.0% from +4.2-4.8% prior to $87.5-88.1 bln, may not be comparable to $86.99 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees comp sales +4.1-4.9%
  • The Company's estimated probable losses related to the claims made by the payment card networks in connection with the data breach discovered in September 2014 are based on currently available information and expected payments associated with those claims. These estimates may change as new information becomes available or circumstances change.

Reuters - Exclusive: U.S. graft probes may cost Petrobras record $1.6 billion or

PBR - Indicated -0.70% for now - no real trading

Exclusive: U.S. graft probes may cost Petrobras record $1.6 billion or more - source

Brazil's Petrobras may need to pay record penalties of $1.6 billion or more to settle U.S. criminal and civil probes into its role in a corruption scandal, a person recently briefed by the company's legal advisors told Reuters.

State-run Petroleo Brasileiro SA, as the company is formally known, expects to face the largest penalties ever levied by U.S. authorities in a corporate corruption investigation, according to the person, who has direct knowledge of the company's thinking. The settlement process could take two-to-three years, this person said.

To date, the largest settlement of corporate corruption charges with the U.S. Department of Justice and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission was a 2008 agreement with Siemens AG, the German industrial giant. It agreed to pay the U.S. $800 million to settle charges related to its role in a bribery scheme, and paid about the same amount to German authorities.

The person told Reuters the legal advisors said they believed Petrobras faced fines that could be as large as, or more than, the $1.6 billion in combined U.S. and German penalties that Siemens faced.

Two other sources with direct knowledge of Petrobras' plans also said that any settlement, while several years away, would likely be "large," but declined to give a specific estimate.

All three sources requested anonymity, and cautioned that any estimates for the size of possible fines are very preliminary. Petrobras has not yet begun settlement talks with U.S. authorities, whose investigations are believed to be in an early phase, they said.

In November, the SEC sent a subpoena to Petrobras requesting information about the widening corruption investigations that have ensnared top company executives, major private contractors and senior politicians in Brazil. According to people familiar with the matter, the DOJ, which can bring criminal charges, is also investigating the company.

BID-RIGGING

Petrobras' lawyers maintain that the firm was a victim of corruption and bid-rigging by engineering firms and other suppliers to the firm, a group of former employees who allegedly took or arranged bribes, and Brazilian politicians who benefited from kickbacks from Petrobras suppliers, according to Petrobras officials.

However, the attorneys also said they believe that investigations by U.S. authorities are likely to result in charges that Petrobras itself violated the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) and securities laws, according to the person who was briefed.

Last December, Brazil's Prosecutor-General Rodrigo Janot said Brazilian prosecutors were cooperating with investigations by the SEC and the DOJ into whether the corruption scheme hurt the interests of U.S. investors in Petrobras shares listed in New York.

In an e-mailed response to questions, Petrobras declined to comment on the U.S. investigations or any estimates of how much an eventual settlement may cost.

The DOJ and the SEC also declined to comment for this article.

Petrobras falls under U.S. jurisdiction because its shares are traded in the United States – until recently it was the largest foreign company on the New York Stock Exchange.

The person who was briefed said legal advisors warned Petrobras that if money related to the case moved through U.S. banks it could open the company up to prosecution. Brazilian prosecutors have produced evidence that some of the illegal payments were arranged on U.S. soil, according to court documents filed in Brazil.

This source also said the advisors’ view was that a negotiated settlement and penalties makes more sense than fighting the U.S. Justice Department.

Such fines would be another financial hit for Petrobras, whose market value has sunk to less than $40 billion from nearly $300 billion seven years ago.

Brazilian prosecutors have made no moves to punish the company, even though their investigation has led to more than 100 indictments.

Two senior Petrobras executives are among a dozen people who have already been convicted in Brazil for offences such as money laundering and racketeering.

Petrobras executives allegedly conspired with construction and engineering companies and other suppliers to rig bids and inflate the cost of contracts. The excess was then kicked-back to executives, politicians and political parties as bribes and campaign contributions, according to Brazilian court documents, including court rulings and prosecutors' presentations.

Brazilian prosecutors say they have found no evidence of illegal payments that went directly from Petrobras to government officials. But even if the company is not found to have bribed officials it could be penalized under the "books and records" provision of the FCPA. The provision requires companies to keep accurate financial accounts and maintain an adequate system of internal accounting controls.

Petrobras took a $17 billion charge against earnings in 2014 to account for over-valued assets in the wake of the scandal. At the time, Petrobras said 12 percent of that total, or more than $2 billion, was directly related to corrupt acts not accounted for in earlier periods.

Since November, Petrobras has been working to limit the damage. The oil company hired U.S. law firm Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher and the Brazilian law firm Trench, Rossi e Watanabe to conduct an internal investigation into the allegations and has promised to turn over information to the authorities.

The law firms report to Ellen Gracie Northfleet, former chief justice of Brazil's Supreme Court and Andreas Pohlmann, who was chief compliance officer of Siemens from 2007 to 2010 - the period in which it agreed to pay the record-setting fines. Gracie and Pohlmann were hired in December by the Petrobras board to ensure that the investigation remained independent.

Gibson Dunn did not respond to a request for comment. Trench, Rossi e Watanabe declined to comment.

Petrobras also created a compliance unit with an independent senior executive with broad powers and a mandate to investigate anyone at the company, including the chief executive.

Cooperation with ongoing investigations by the U.S. authorities may reduce the amount of penalties negotiated in a settlement deal, legal experts said.

Some of Petrobras' contractors could face their own large U.S. penalties for bribing Petrobras executives, who are considered government officials under the FCPA, the experts said.

(BFW) What Next for Greece’s Tsipras as Syriza Rift Widens: Scenarios


BN 08/18 09:17 What Next for Greece’s Tsipras as Syriza Rift Widens: Scenarios

What Next for Greece’s Tsipras as Syriza Rift Widens: Scenarios
2015-08-18 09:23:50.756 GMT


By Marcus Bensasson
(Bloomberg) -- Greece’s parliamentary vote on a third
bailout last week underlined the split within Prime Minister
Alexis Tsipras’s governing Syriza party, opening the door to new
elections as early as next month.

* After the ballot, a Greek government official indicated
Tsipras could hold a vote of confidence in his
administration as soon as the bailout is signed and the
country has paid EU3.2b due to the European Central Bank on
Aug. 20
* Defeat would trigger national elections as early as
September; while fresh elections may delay implementation of
the bailout, they could also deliver Tsipras a strengthened
mandate to enact a package that runs counter to the anti-
austerity platform Syriza was elected on in January
* For a Q&A on what you need to know about the road ahead
click here


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To contact the reporter on this story:
Marcus Bensasson in Athens at +30-210-741-9077 or
mbensasson@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Jenny Paris at +44-20-3525-4044 or
jparis20@bloomberg.net