>>> BOJ Gov Kuroda: Reiterates Japan economy continues moderate recovery - Emerg

BOJ Gov Kuroda: Reiterates Japan economy continues moderate recovery 
- Emerging market economies slow down
- Reiterates virtuous cycle does work in Japan
- Reiterates easing is showing intended effects
- Exports move sideways but seen increasing moderately ahead
- BOJ to keep easing until inflation target is stable
- Expects Japan inflation to accelerate toward target after energy price effects disappear

(DB) European equities: what to do if the Fed starts hiking

European equities: what to do if the Fed starts hiking
* Future markets imply a probability of 30% that the Fed will start hiking interest rates today – and a probability of around 60% for a rate hike by the end of the year.
* We think a rate hike now would be a mistake, as inflationary pressures are low, market-implied inflation expectations have dropped to levels at which the Fed has started easing in the past and financial conditions have already tightened significantly (the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index is at the highest level in 4 years).
* After Fed hikes in 1994 and 2004, US equities have typically dropped by around 7% in the first two months. This correction has been driven by P/E falling by around 15% (in line with rising US 2-year note yields), while earnings growth remained strong. Performance for European equities has been slightly weaker, as they de-rated sharply after the 1994 hike, on the back of elevated starting valuations.
* In the current cycle, we believe there is less downside to P/Es (as short-term rates are set to rise by less than on previous occasions), but also less upside to earnings. When the Fed starts hiking, we think equities could correct by 5% to 8%.
* European equities have potential to outperform US equities in such a scenario, in our view, given attractive relative valuations, tailwinds from ECB easing, more earnings rebound potential and a likely further appreciation of the USD (as a result of a further rise in the bond yield spread between the US and Europe, which only tends to reverse once relative Fed tightening stops).
* Among European sectors, banks, tech, utilities and insurance have historically performed well after past first Fed rate hikes, are positively correlated with the USD & the 2-year US note yield and offer attractive relative valuations.
* Our basket of European companies with US exposure has already performed strongly and relative valuations look expensive in aggregate. We show a screen of companies with high sales exposure to the US whose P/E relative to the market is below the long-term average. Of those Aegon and Qiagen are buy-rated by our analysts
* Economic pressures on emerging markets are set to increase following a Fed rate hike, as capital outflows accelerate and a strong USD weighs on commodity prices. Our GEM exposure basket has held up surprisingly well, given the relative slow-down in emerging market GDP growth – and the basket continues to look expensive on relative P/E. We show a screen of GEM-exposed stocks whose P/E relative to the market is above the long-run average. Of these, Telefonica is sell-rated

>>> What to look at today - 17th of September 2015

Dow+0.84% S&P+0.87% Nasdaq+0.59% Russell+0.79% VIX 21.53 (-5.1%)
US Market closed higher for a second day ahead of the FED tomorrow, Energy leaded the move, finish +2.8% following the oil which finished higher +5.8% at $47.15 (Rally was fueled by EIA Inventory report). consumer staples sector (+1.1%) saw increased activity thanks to M&A rumblings among brewers and distillers after Anheuser-Busch Inbev (BUD 115.43, +7.39) approached SABMiller (SBMRY 56.45, +9.72) about a potential acquisition. SABMiller expressed willingness to entertain discussions, and the news boosted its peers, none more so than Molson Coors Brewing (TAP 82.98, +10.34), which surged 14.2%. Fedex weighted on transport sector, volume were still below average at 863mil shares. US After Hours LAKE +11.8%, MLHR +8.4%, APOG -8.6%, CLC -7.4%, ARCW -7.1%, SANW -4.2%, ORCL -1.7% following earnings/guidance, APD +2.93% on news of Spin-off materials technology business... AERI +69.5% on +ve Phase3...Asian equity markets are broadly higher, tracking US indices...China govt crackdown on securities industry continued with a high profile investigation of CSRC assistant chairman Zhang Yujun for "serious disciplinary violations."...US TICS data showed China holding of Treasuries fall to $1.24T v $1.27T prior, an official with FX regulator SAFE said there was no basis to reports of large scale capital outflows, claiming banks are adding FX deposits each month. SAFE added that depreciation pressure in Yuan has eased...Copper prices spiked up about 1% after an 8.3 earthquake reported offshore Chile - said to be the largest earthquake in the region in over 100 years. A number of firms with exposure to Chile indicated their production was not impacted, and prices returned to unchanged levels around $2.45/lb.

Nikkei +1.35% Hang Seng +0.85% Shanghai +0.60%

Eur$ 1.1293 CNY 6.3665 JPY 120.80 EURCHF 1.0963 GBP 1.5506 RUB$ 65.39 WTI$47.23 (+0.15%)

S&P -0.11% EuroStoxx +0.28% Dax +0.38% SMI +0.53%

Macro :
- Oil Rally Boosts U.S. Stocks Before Fed; Emerging Assets Rally
- Greek Debt Haircut Is Not on the Table, Moscovici Says

Keep an eye on :
- ATC NA : *ALTICE TO BUY CABLEVISION FOR $34.90/SHR IN CASH
- BALSN SW : Baloise Sells CHF1.9b Closed Life Insurance Portfolio in Germany
- COR PL : C. Amorim to Sell as Much as 5.56% Own Stock to Instl Investors
- GLEN LN : 805 HK +1.5% @ 135.20 vs 134.70yest in ldn
- SDF GY : Potash Corp, K+S not actively discussing takeover http://reut.rs/1KqIpcy
- KCR1V FH : Konecranes Cuts 2015 Forecasts on Weaker Demand
- RYA LN : Ryanair CEO Sees Shareholder Distribution From Aer Lingus Sale
- RWE GY : RWE Innogy Seeking to Sell a Dozen Power Plants, FAZ Says
- SHP LN : *BAXALTA: NOT GOING TO DO ANY DEFENSIVE M&A
- TLSN SS : TeliaSonera Says There are ‘Interested Parties’ for Eurasia Ops
- TEL2B SS : Tele2 Loses Court Case on KPN’s Network Access Costs: Telegraaf
- UCG IM : UniCredit Said to Hire Monte Paschi’s Mingrone as Group CFO
- VOW3 GY : VW Says China Approves Stake Increase in JV in Principle: Sina

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 17th of September 2

>>> Up
*BANCO POPULAR RAISED TO BUY AT HSBC
*BANCO SABADELL RAISED TO BUY AT HSBC
*BANKIA RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*DEUTSCHE BANK RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT NOMURA
*GKN RAISED TO OUTPERFORM AT RBC CAPITAL
*JCDECAUX RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT BERENBERG
*OCADO RAISED TO HOLD VS SELL AT DEUTSCHE BANK
*SABMILLER RAISED TO SECTOR PERFORM AT RBC CAPITAL
*SAMPO RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT GOLDMAN SACHS
*SERCO RAISED TO HOLD VS SELL AT BERENBERG
*TRYG RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN SACHS
*TURK TELEKOM RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN

>>> Down
*DEUTZ CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT BANKHAUS LAMPE
*HUNTING CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN
*KUKA CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT CITI
*RALLYE CUT TO REDUCE VS HOLD AT HSBC
*REPSOL CUT TO REDUCE VS NEUTRAL AT ODDO
*SOLOCAL CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT ODDO
*SSE CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE
*SWISSCOM CUT TO TO UNDERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT: MORGAN STANLEY
*UBS CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT NOMURA

>>> PT change
*BANCA POP. MILANO RATED NEW HOLD AT BERENBERG, PT EU0.83
*BANCO POPOLARE RATED NEW SELL AT BERENBERG, PT EU12
*CREDITO EMILIANO RATED NEW HOLD AT BERENBERG, PT EU6.80
*MONTE PASCHI RATED NEW SELL AT BERENBERG, PT EU1.10
*OCADO RATED NEW OVERWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*UBI BANCA RATED NEW SELL AT BERENBERG, PT EU5.30

>>> Initiation
*OCADO RATED NEW OVERWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY; PT 420P


>>> Call

>>> Asian Update

Asian Mid-session Update: New Zealand y/y GDP slows to 2-year low; China arrests high-profile securities official, denies capital outflows

***Economic Data***
- (JP) JAPAN AUG MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE: -¥570B V -¥540BE; ADJ TRADE BALANCE: -¥359B V -¥377BE
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q2 GDP Q/Q: 0.4% V 0.6%E; Y/Y: 2.4% (2-year low) V 2.5%E

***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225+0.8%, S&P/ASX +1.3%, Kospi +0.2%, Shanghai Composite +0.3%, Hang Seng +0.8%, Dec S&P500 -0.2% at 1,984

***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Dec gold +0.1% at $1,120/oz, Oct crude oil flat at $47.17/brl, Dec copper flat% at $2.45/lb
- (CN) NDRC to raise gasoline and diesel price by CNY90/ton, effective from Sept 17th
- (CN) PBoC to inject CNY40B (1-month low) in 7-day reverse repos (24th consecutive injection); Drains net CNY140B this week v injected 80B prior week
- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥400B in 5-10yr JGBs, ¥240B in 10-25yr JGBs, and ¥140B in JGBs with maturity over 25-yr
- (JP) Japan investors bought net ¥514B in foreign bonds v bought ¥1.1T in prior week; Foreign investors sold net ¥1.42T (record outflow) in Japan stocks v sold ¥986B in prior week

***Market Focal Points/FX***
- Asian equity markets are broadly higher, tracking US indices that staged another impressive rally on the eve of tomorrow's pivotal FOMC decision. Soft CPI contributed in bolstering the dovish camp, but the jury is very much out on the outcome. Some surveys see a near-even split among economists, while fixed income markets are pricing in a roughly 30% chance of a liftoff. Precious metals consolidated US session gains, and trading in USD majors was also rangebound in the wake of some dollar selling after the CPI release. NZD/USD was most volatile in the morning session, falling 40pips below 0.6340 after a miss in New Zealand GDP.

- China govt crackdown on securities industry continued with a high profile investigation of CSRC assistant chairman Zhang Yujun for "serious disciplinary violations." Neither office provided any further details on the nature of the inquiry. Also of note in China, after today's US TICS data showed China holding of Treasuries fall to $1.24T v $1.27T prior, an official with FX regulator SAFE said there was no basis to reports of large scale capital outflows, claiming banks are adding FX deposits each month. SAFE added that depreciation pressure in Yuan has eased.

- New Zealand Q2 GDP data saw a bounce in Q/Q to 0.4% from Q1's 2-year low of 0.2%, but it still missed consensus and y/y level hit its own 2-year low. Private consumption component recovered to 0.9% v 0.2% prior, but Exports component was particularly telling with a decline of -1.1% v +1.6% prior. Japan economic data featured the release of August trade balance remaining in deficit that was roughly in line with expectations. Here, components were again compelling, as China exports contracted by 4.6% after a 4.2% rise in Q1. US exports growth slowed to +11.1% v +18.8% prior, while shipments to Europe were near flat. After overnight S&P downgrade out of Japan, a Nikkei report surmised that only 1 out of 41 economists surveyed by Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) see the BOJ being able to achieve its 2% inflation target by the intended timeframe of H1 of 2016. Report also cited BNP economists predicting a downgrade in BOJ projections when the next set is released in late October.

- Copper prices spiked up about 1% after an 8.3 earthquake reported offshore Chile - said to be the largest earthquake in the region in over 100 years. A number of firms with exposure to Chile indicated their production was not impacted, and prices returned to unchanged levels around $2.45/lb.

***Equities***
US equities / ADRs:
- AERI: Reports positive phase 3 efficacy results for Rhopressa eye treatment; +77.4% afterhours
- CVC: Altice said to be in advanced talks to acquire company for $34.90/shr or $17.7B incl debt; Deal may be announced as soon as Thursday - financial press; +16.1% afterhours
- LAKE: Reports Q2 $0.28 v $0.28e, R$29.5M v $26.0Me; +13.6% afterhours
- MLHR: Reports Q1 $0.56 v $0.47e, R$565.4M v $555Me; +7.6% afterhours
- APD: Announces intent to spin-off Materials Technologies Business; +3.1% afterhours
- NOC: Announces New $4B Share Repurchase Authorization (12.5% of market cap); +0.8% afterhours
- ORCL: Reports Q1 $0.53 v $0.52e, R$8.45B v $8.51Be; -1.2% afterhours
- BTU: Announces 1-For-15 Reverse Stock Split Following Shareholder Approval effective after close on Sept 30; -10.8% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer discretionary: Car Inc 699.HK -5.8% (share sale); Tsuruha Holdings 3391.JP -0.7% (Q1 result); Nomura Research Institute 4307.JP +0.1% (H1 speculation); Recall Holdings REC.AU +1.4% (acquisition)
- Financials: China Vanke 000002.CN -1.2% (details on share buyback); Macquarie Group MQG.AU +0.3% (update on bid for Esanda)
- Industrials: Cathay Pacific Airways 293.HK +1.7% (Aug result); Shanghai International Airport Co 600009.CN -1.1% (Aug result); Shimadzu Corp 7701.JP +0.9% (speculation on share buyback); Kia Motors 000270.KR -0.6% (union agrees in favor of strike)
- Technology: Samsung Electronics 005930.KR % (job cut speculation)

WSJ : Altice in Advanced Talks to Buy Cablevision



Altice in Advanced Talks to Buy Cablevision
Deal values Cablevision, which has a market value of $7.9 billion, at roughly $18 billion including debt

Altice SA is in advanced talks to buy Cablevision Systems Corp., the latest move by the European cable company to build a communications empire in the U.S.

A deal between the two companies could be announced as soon as Thursday, according to people familiar with the matter. Altice is expected to pay $34.90 a share, one of the people said. That would value Cablevision, which has a market value of $7.9 billion, at roughly $18 billion including its heavy debt load. The deal would rank as one of the larger takeovers in a roaring year for mergers and acquisitions. Cablevision’s stock rose 16% in after-hours trading on The Wall Street Journal’s report of a possible deal.

As always with M&A, it is possible the deal could fall apart at the last minute.


Altice, run by billionaire investor Patrick Drahi, has become a prolific consolidator on both sides of the Atlantic. After completing a series of deals in Europe including the $23 billion takeover of France’s second-biggest wireless-phone operator SFR, Mr. Drahi in May opened a new frontier in the U.S. by inking a $9 billion deal to buy cable company Suddenlink Communications. Altice then quickly turned its attention to Time Warner Cable Inc., which was in the process of negotiating a sale to Charter Communications Inc. Charter beat Altice to that prize, with a $55 billion deal to buy TWC that is pending. But people close to Mr. Drahi made it clear then that he wasn't done building a presence in the U.S.

Altice, which is based in Luxembourg and has operations from France to Israel, has a market capitalization of €24 billion ($27.1 billion). The company has built a reputation for aggressive deal making and cost-cutting.

In Europe, Mr. Drahi has been able to cut costs by bundling four products: TV, high-speed Internet and fixed- and mobile-phone services. That so-called quadruple-play model doesn’t yet exist on a large scale in the U.S.

“My vision is to do the same in the U.S., but bigger,” Mr. Drahi said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal over the summer.

Mr. Drahi is scheduled to speak at an investor conference in New York on Thursday.

Cablevision, the fifth-largest U.S. cable company and eighth-largest provider of pay-TV services, has been widely seen as a potential acquisition target in a fast-consolidating industry where a few heavyweights are in dominant positions. AT&T Inc. became the No. 1 pay-TV provider when it closed its purchase of DirecTV in July. Comcast Corp. is the largest broadband provider, and Charter will leap to the top ranks if regulators approve its proposed takeover of TWC.

Little-Known French Billionaire Circles U.S. Cable Market (July 10)
Altice Looks to U.S. After Sealing Suddenlink Deal (May 20)
Vivendi Accepts Altice Offer to Buy 20% Numericable-SFR Stake (Feb. 27)
Bethpage, N.Y.-based Cablevision serves 3.1 million customers across its TV, voice and high-speed data services throughout the New York metropolitan area. It generated $6.5 billion in revenue in 2014, with net income of $311 million. The Dolan family controls Cablevision with a 72.3% voting stake, according to the company’s proxy filing, and owns cable-network company AMC Networks Inc. as well as Madison Square Garden Co. Like other cable operators, Cablevision has been gradually shedding video consumers as they “cut the cord.”

For years, merger advisers and media executives speculated that Cablevision could be an acquisition target, but doing a deal with the Dolans was seen as difficult because of the high valuation they have attached to their assets. Chuck Dolan founded Cablevision in 1973 in Long Island. Mr. Dolan is now 88 years old and the company is run by his son James, who is CEO, with a lot of other family members in various executive roles. In 2007, the Dolan family made a $10.6 billion offer to take Cablevision private, an effort that was rejected by shareholders.

Patrick Drahi has set his sights on creating an American cable giant. ENLARGE
Patrick Drahi has set his sights on creating an American cable giant. PHOTO: THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
For Altice, securing Cablevision’s footprint in New York would be a major step toward its goal of becoming a big player in the media-and-telecommunications business in the U.S. But there are plenty of challenges too. For one, Cablevision has a high penetration of its territory, leaving limited room for growth, and it faces a stiff regional competitor in Verizon Communications Inc.’s FiOS offering.

James Dolan has said he wants to transform the cable operator away from its television roots into a “connectivity” company.

Mr. Dolan has banked on the future of the higher-margin broadband service to make up for dwindling video customers and has said that there may come a day when Cablevision stops offering cable-TV service completely.

At an investor conference in June, Mr. Dolan said the number of customers paying for the traditional big bundle of cable TV channels is going to shrink by about 20% to 25% over the next five years, as consumers opt instead for smaller packages of channels or online-video options. In April, Cablevision launched low-cost, cord-cutter TV packages with broadband service and a free digital antenna to pick up local TV signals.

The cable operator also reached a deal with streaming-video service Hulu to offer on-demand shows and movies, becoming the first cable or satellite TV provider to strike such a partnership.
Reserved.

>>> US After Hours Summary: LAKE +11.8%, MLHR +8.4%, APOG -8.6%,

After Hours Summary: LAKE +11.8%, MLHR +8.4%, APOG -8.6%, CLC -7.4%, ARCW -7.1%, SANW -4.2%, ORCL -1.7% following earnings/guidance

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: LAKE +11.8%, MLHR +8.4%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: AERI +69.5% (reported positive Rhopressa Phase 3 efficacy results; study achieved primary efficacy endpoint demonstrating non-inferiority compared to twice-daily timolol), NETE +7.1% (co closed on $1.59 mln of insider financing), REN +6.7% (announced agreement to sell its Hilight Field assets in the Wyoming Powder River Basin for $55 mln; proceeds to be used to reduce debt), WMB +4.3% (Bloomberg reporting co is close to being acquired by Energy Transfer Equity LP (ETE)), EGY +3.5% (reported that its North Tchibala 1-H well has been brought online at a rate slightly in excess of 3,000 gross barrels of oil per day), RLYP +3.2% (announced results of Phase 1 Phase 1 onset-of-action study of Patiromer for Oral Suspension were published in Kidney International; Patiromer FOS rapidly and significantly reduced blood potassium from baseline levels in patients with moderate-to-severe hyperkalemia), APD +3.0% (announced intent to spin-off Materials Technologies Business), OCRX +1.4% (announced initiation of Phase 1 clinical trial in healthy subjects to evaluate oral prototype solid-dose, extended-release formulations of OCR-002), AEO +1.2% (co's Exec Chairman & Interim CEO disclosed purchase of 500K shares, worth total of $7.87 mln)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: APOG -8.6%, CLC -7.4%, ARCW -7.1%, SANW -4.2%, ORCL -1.7%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: BTU -8.2% (announced 1-for-15 reverse stock split following shareholder approval)

FT. : Anheuser-Busch InBev eyes takeover of rival SABMiller


Anheuser-Busch InBev eyes takeover of rival SABMiller


Anheuser-Busch InBev, the world’s largest brewer, is exploring a takeover of rival SABMiller in a deal that would create a $275bn company responsible for one out of every three beers produced globally.

A tie-up between the owner of Budweiser and Stella Artois and the group behind Peroni and Grolsch would rank as one of the six largest takeovers in history and the biggest in a year that was already the strongest for blockbuster deals since 2007.
It would mark the latest stage of a remarkable consolidation in the global brewing industry driven by a group of Brazilian investors led by Jorge Paulo Lemann. They are also the founders of 3G Capital, the Brazilian private equity group, which has been buying up US food companies including Heinz, Kraft and Burger King, sometimes with the support of serial investor Warren Buffett.
A series of deals over the past decade have transformed AB InBev and SAB into the world’s two biggest brewers and the two — along with Heineken and Carlsberg — make half the world’s beer.
Ironically, the industry has consolidated just as consumer tastes in beer are fragmenting. The big brewers face a growing challenge from craft beer, popular with millennial and younger drinkers who reject what they perceive as the bland offerings of the big multinationals.
SABMiller said on Wednesday it had been informed that AB InBev intended to make a bid proposal for the company but it had not received any such proposal or details about its terms.
“The board of SABMiller will review and respond as appropriate to any proposal which might be made,” it said in a statement after the Financial Times told the company it intended to report the approach.

AB InBev’s bold dreams of expansion originated with Jorge Paulo Lemann, the group’s single biggest shareholder

The FT’s management editor examines how the Budweiser brewer has sharpened its takeover and integration tactics
Under rules guiding takeovers in the UK, AB InBev has until 5pm on October 14 to make a firm offer to SABMiller.
AB InBev later confirmed that it had made an approach, saying its intention was “to work with SABMiller’s board toward a recommended transaction”.
Shares in SABMiller closed up 20 per cent to £36.14 in London, giving it a market capitalisation of £58.5bn ($90.7bn). SABMiller has net debt of about £7.5bn. AB InBev shares closed up 6 per cent at €100.5, giving a market capitalisation of €161.6bn ($182.6bn).
chart: Global beer market share
AB InBev is hoping to engage the management of SAB in a friendly transaction, said people familiar with the matter.
It is being advised by Lazard, the independent investment bank, and law firm Freshfields. SAB is working with advisers at Robey Warshaw, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, as well as lawyers at Linklaters.
It is unclear whether SAB, which counts the tobacco company Altria and Colombia’s Santo Domingo family as its largest shareholders, is interested in pursuing a deal. On Tuesday it emerged that Altria, which has a 27 per cent stake in SAB, had cancelled two appearances this week at consumer goods conferences hosted by BofA Merrill Lynch and Stifel, fuelling speculation that SAB might be in play.
Hard-nosed kings of beer

Working for the world’s largest brewer is not to everybody’s taste — and that is fine with Carlos Brito, Anheuser-Busch InBev’s chief executive.
Read more
Given the size of the two companies, AB InBev would have to agree to divestitures in order to obtain regulatory approval for a deal in multiple countries, including the US and China.
SABMiller has a near-30 per cent share of the US beer market through MillerCoors, its joint venture with Molson Coors. It also has 23 per cent of China’s beer market through a joint venture with China Resources Enterprise, known as CR Snow, while AB InBev has a 15 per cent share of the Chinese market.
Trevor Stirling, analyst at Bernstein said: “The US Department of Justice would almost certainly insist on the disposal of SAB’s stake in MillerCoors in the USA. And ABI might also have to dispose of SAB’s 49 per cent stake in CR Snow in China. But it is also likely that Molson Coors and CRE would be willing purchasers respectively.”
People who have studied a potential tie-up between AB InBev and SAB in the past said AB InBev would be ready to sell SAB’s stake in the joint venture with Molson Coors.

Mr Lemann’s first foray into beer came in 1989, when he and his partners acquired control of Brahma, a Brazilian brewer. Ten years later Brahma took over Antarctica, Brazil’s biggest brewery, to create Ambev, which supplied Mr Lemann with the firepower to acquire Belgium’s Interbrew in 2004, creating InBev. The last blockbuster acquisition was the $52bn deal with Anheuser-Busch of the US that led to today’s AB InBev.
Fitch, the rating agency, has noted, an AB InBev-SABMiller merger “would create a global player, thus further widening the gap with rivals Heineken and Carlsberg. It would be exposed to high growth and profitable markets and would require only limited divestments in relation to market overlaps”.

Reuters - Potash Corp, K+S not actively discussing takeover -Potash CEO

(Reuters) - Potash Corp of Saskatchewan is not actively discussing its takeover proposal with Germany's K+S, but remains interested in a combination of fertilizer producers that would aid North American potash sales and offer new access to Europe, Chief Executive Jochen Tilk said on Wednesday.

Potash Corp's standing offer of 7.9 billion euros ($8.90 billion) or 41 euros per share is appealing to K+S shareholders, Tilk said at an investors' conference in New York organized by Credit Suisse.

"It was attractive when we made it (in July). Marketing conditions have changed, we think it's even more attractive now," he said. "I will not put words in K+S shareholders' mouths but I think most of them feel that is an appropriate offer in terms of premium."

A K+S spokesman declined to comment
Shares of K+S dipped after Tilk's comments and closed down 0.2 percent at 33.58 euros in Frankfurt. Potash shares were up 1.8 percent at $25.44 in New York and up 1.3 percent at C$33.51 in Toronto on Wednesday afternoon.

Potash Corp's interest in K+S comes as the over-built potash industry struggles with low prices.

China imposed a value-added tax this month that will make potash modestly more costly to its rice farmers, Tilk said. Recession in Brazil and the U.S. dollar's strength are also hurting producers, he said.

K+S, EuroChem and others, meanwhile, are building new mines.

"The next 5 years will be somewhat challenging in terms of supply and demand," Tilk said.

Negotiations with China look to be "tough" for a 2016 potash supply contract, Tilk said.

A takeover would give Potash Corp a chance to realize savings from selling potash within North America from its own Western Canada mines jointly with potash from K+S' Legacy mine, which is under construction in the region, Tilk said.

Saskatoon, Saskatchewan-based Potash Corp made a fresh attempt in July to entice K+S into takeover talks, but the salt and fertilizer company rejected it. Earlier that month, K+S rebuffed Potash Corp's offer as too low and suggested the suitor was planning to shrink the company.

Germany's Handlesblatt reported last week that a hostile bid was imminent, but Scotiabank analyst Ben Isaacson said in a note on Tuesday that there appeared to be little interest in Germany in a deal.