--> -1.97% pre open...traded down -3.92% earlier..
Tiffany & Co holiday comps -5% ex-FX; lowers FY15 EPS, sees minimal growth in sales and earnings next year, below consensus
Geographic Breakdown
Total sales of $505 mln, declined 7% in the Americas yoy
Company Outlook for 2015-2016
Management expects net earnings ending Jan 31, 2016 to decline ~ 10% (compared with its previously-reported forecast of 5%-10% decline) from last year's $4.20 per diluted share, excluding loan impairment charge in the Q215 and debt extinguishment charge in 2014, down to $3.78 vs consensus $3.88
"Management currently believes that the strong dollar and global macro challenges will likely result in minimal growth in net sales and net earnings [consensus EPS +14.8% to $4.34, rev +% to $4.2 bln] as reported in dollars and excluding charges in 2015, for the year, all assumptions and expectations are approximate and may or may not prove valid. Co maintains its forecast to generate at least $500 mln of free cash flow FY16
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Global Fund Manager Survey
Investors not yet Max Bearish......just 12% believe a global recession will occur in the next 12-months, investors remain OW equities & UW bonds, and stubbornly long tech, Eurozone & Japanese stocks (assets now most vulnerable to a redemption/recession shakedown).
But cash levels surging higher...
...investors raise cash (to 5.4% = 3rd highest since 2009), cut growth & profit expectations (EPS expectations turn negative for 1st time since Oct’12), and rotate defensively (selling stocks, resources, industrials, banks & EM, and rotating to healthcare, staples, cash & bonds).
And long US dollar starts to unwind...
...US$ strength induces record UW in materials, 1st industrials UW in 40 months, and China recession/EM debt crisis remain biggest "tail risks"...but number of US dollar bullsdrops to 3-year lows as Fed rate hike expectations start to fade (2 hikes forecast in 2016, down from 3).
Investors no longer in "denial" about recession/bear market risks...
...but yet to accept macro/markets already well into a normal, cyclical recession/bear market. True capitulation would involve a bout of US$ weakness and outperformance of FMS "shorts" (e.g. BRIC) as redemptions induce forced-selling of "longs" (e.g. FANG). Sell bounces until the 4Cs (China, Commodities, Consumer, Credit) improve.
European Fund Manager Survey :
No conviction? Hide in Europe
Global expectations drop but investors still bullish on Europe
RTRS - RENAULT SAYS OWNERS OF ABOUT 700,000 VEHICLES TO BE OFFERED CHECKS FOR POSSIBLE SOFTWARE UPGRADE
Ocado jumps 16% on Amazon tie-up report
Ocado shares have jumped by 16 per cent this morning after the Daily Mail’s market report cited “rumours in the City yesterday” that “Amazon may be about to deliver a tie-up with Ocado.”
For some time, Ocado has been looking into striking a deal with another international grocer to allow it to expand abroad and escape its dependence on the UK middle classes. But yesterday, shares in fact fell by more than 4 per cent. There has been no statement by Ocado to the Takeover Panel, and none is thought to be imminent.
A spokesperson for the UK grocery company declined to comment.
The shares have dropped more than 56 per cent since they hit an all-time high in 2014.
Why revisiting the Deutsche Telekom case now ?
Because the 01/29/16 completion of its swap of a 50% stake in EE for an about
€7.5Bn block of BT Group shares could be just the start :
- DT will become BT’s largest shareholder with a 12% stake
- BT deal could prove to be the first of a number of boundary effects in 2016
In a nutshell
The acquisition of BT shares will further expand the proportion of DT’s sum-ofthe-
parts that has an independent market value
the listing of Scout24 and the acquisition of the Stroeer stake are also helpful in
this respect
DT is directly and indirectly facing 2 significant events :
- the Q2 US airwave auction ,whose outcome will theoretically reopen the
M&A window for T-Mobile US
- the Ofcom investigation into BT Openreach which has significant
implications for competition in the UK and the potential for closer
integration of DT and BT
Speculation around a DT stake increase or bid for BT would probably increase if :
- DT monetised some or all of its T-Mobile US stake
- any steady commercial and financial outperformance of BT Group
ALSTOM :
- will temporarily trade from today under new ticker ALOT ,as any share purchased today will not be eligible to the repurchase offer
- the theoretical EX price implied by the €27.22 closing price is -assuming a 30% acceptance rate- is €23.89
derived from equation : €27.22 = 0.3 x €35.00 + 0.7 x €23.89