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New Novo Nordisk drug could beat market leaders for weight loss, early results show

Participants in trial of amycretin injectable obesity drug lost an average of 24% of their body weight on highest dose

Novo Nordisk’s new injectable obesity drug has the potential to deliver higher weight loss than both of the current market blockbusters, an early stage trial has found.

In newly-published data, participants in the trial of injectable amycretin lost an average of 24.3 per cent of their body weight on the highest dose, compared with 1.1 per cent for those on a placebo.

The results come as the Danish pharma group races rival Eli Lilly to secure the best successor to the current best sellers — Lilly’s Zepbound and Novo’s Wegovy, which respectively cause average weight loss of 22.5 and 15 per cent.

According to another early-stage trial also published in medical journal The Lancet on Saturday, a tablet version of amycretin caused average weight loss of 13.1 per cent on the highest dose, compared with 1.2 per cent for the placebo.

Amycretin combines semaglutide, the active ingredient in Novo’s Wegovy and Ozempic, with amylin, a hormone that promotes a feeling of fullness. Novo said it would pursue further trials of both the oral and the injectable version of the drug. 

In the first-phase trial of the amycretin pill, participants’ weight loss did not plateau by the end of the 12 weeks, so in a longer trial or real life setting, they could lose more. 

Martin Lange, Novo Nordisk executive vice-president of development, said he believes the oral version of the drug may deliver similar weight loss to the injectable version, if patients take it for longer. 

He added that amycretin seems to have “substantial weight loss potential”, bolstering Novo’s portfolio of anti-obesity drugs. Evan Seigerman, an analyst at BMO Capital Markets, said amycretin looks “promising”.

Novo is trying to convince investors that its pipeline can compete with Lilly’s, after a disappointing result in trials of its new CagriSema obesity medication sent its shares tumbling late last year. More extensive data on CagriSema will be presented on Sunday at the American Diabetes Association conference. 

Shares in Novo have fallen more than 50 per cent in the past year, as investors worried it was losing its lead to Lilly’s Zepbound and Mounjaro, and questioned if its pipeline was as good as its rival’s. Last month, the company announced it would search for a replacement for its chief executive Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen.

Analysts are optimistic about Lilly’s orforglipron, another anti-obesity pill, which caused average weight loss of 14.7 per cent at the highest dose over 36 weeks, according to a phase 2 study published in 2023. The results of a more recent phase 3 trial in diabetic patients pushed Lilly’s shares up more than 15 per cent. 

Novo Nordisk has already submitted an application for the approval of an oral version of Wegovy to the US drug regulator. That was based on trial data that showed patients taking the pill achieved an average of 16.6 per cent weight loss over 64 weeks. 

Garmin has spent two decades in the middle of a disruptive storm. The company’s pioneering satellite navigation devices were undone by mobile phones. Then its consumer fitness devices were matched by smartwatches.

While other companies have folded under less pressure, Olathe, Kan.–based Garmin has thrived. For the past 12 years, it has been led by CEO Clifton Pemble, who joined Garmin in 1989 as a software engineer.

Pemble, 59, has turned Garmin into the rare electronics powerhouse not named Apple. While the iPhone and Apple Watch attract a broad audience, Garmin has embraced niche segments with devoted customers. Its devices—with navigation still at their core—dominate boating, aviation, fitness, cycling, and other outdoor recreation.

Garmin sales grew 20% last year to $6.3 billion. The company’s latest device is a smartwatch with a 2-inch display and eight days of battery life, besting Apple Watch’s battery by days.

Pemble doesn’t get the attention of Apple boss Tim Cook, but perhaps he should. Over the past three years, Garmin stock is up 112%, for a total annualized return of 31%, outpacing the market and Apple’s own 15% yearly gain.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz aced his live White House face-off with President Donald Trump on June 5, keeping cool when the U.S. president implicitly linked him to Nazi predecessors. (D-Day “was not a pleasant day for you,” Trump asserted.)

He’s doing pretty well back home, too, 45 days or so after formally taking power. “Merz and the government have laid the groundwork for the economy to turn around,” says Sebastian Dullien, research director at the Dusseldorf-based Macroeconomic Policy Institute. He and other forecasters predict 1.5% gross-domestic-product growth for Germany next year after three years of stagnation.

A grumpy German public seems to agree, relatively. Merz’s approval rating jumped to 36% from 23% in a recent survey by pollster INSA.

Merz has stoked great expectations since his election victory in February. His amendment of Germany’s constitutional “debt brake” and pledge to spend “whatever it takes” on the military largely drove a nearly 20% year-to-date rally in the iShares Europe exchange-traded fund, while the S&P 500 index inched up 2%.

In office, he has reverted somewhat to incrementalist German type. A promised 500 billion euros ($576 billion) burst in infrastructure spending will be doled out over 12 years. An announced €46 billion corporate tax cut won’t actually reduce interest rates until 2028. “That’s too little, very late,” grumbles Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING Research.

Recent history has set a low bar economically and politically, though. German industrial production has slumped 6% since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve, as a cutoff of cheap Russian natural gas dovetailed with weakening Chinese demand. Former Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party coalition seemed largely paralyzed by internal squabbles.

“We’re at the end of a very negative cycle,” Brzeski comments. “Merz didn’t need a lot to turn sentiment and bring back some growth.”

The current coalition between Merz’s Christian Democratic Union and Scholz’s Social Democrats (now minus Scholz) looks more cohesive, if only for fear of the hard right Alternative for Germany opposition. “They all know that if they mess up, the AfD will win the next elections,” Dullien says, using the party’s German acronym.

Merz’s sang-froid in Washington didn’t rid Europe of the threat of punishing new U.S. import tariffs. But investors, looking at the TACO (Trump always chickens out) trend in other trade talks, are expecting mitigation. “We have been positive from the get-go,” says Davide Oneglia, director of European and global macro at TS Lombard. “The European Union is putting something meaningful on the table, based on energy and defense purchases.”

Against that backdrop, he sees “absolutely more upside for European and German stocks over a six- to 12-month horizon.”

Oneglia remains bullish on European military stocks despite a roaring rally already this year. “There’s so much money chasing so little manufacturing capacity that it still has a long way to go,” he says.

Analysts from UBS concur, flagging French weapons makers Thales and Dassault Aviation as top European picks.

Merz’s fiscal revolution in Germany will inevitably decelerate into painstaking economic evolution. Heavy industry will struggle to recover from the Russian energy shock and leapfrogging Chinese competitors. The entrepreneurialism and research infrastructure for tomorrow’s industries will seep in slowly. “It isn’t in the German culture to go for abrupt change,” Dullien says.

But the right direction is better than dithering, and 1.5% growth is a lot better than nothing.