>>> Ansaldo STS sees Elliott build 5.2% stake; may have implications for public

Ansaldo STS sees Elliott build 5.2% stake; may have implications for public offer pricing 

Elliott, the investment fund, has built up a 5.2% stake in Ansaldo STS [BIT:STS], the Italian railway signalling manufacturer, the Italian language Carlo Festa blog reported on 19 December.

The unsourced article said the stake build-up could have implications for the pricing of the public offer being launched by the Japanese industrial group Hitachi [TYO:6501] on Ansaldo.

The report noted Elliott is close to Bluebell, another investment fund holding a stake in Ansaldo that has challenged the pricing of the public offer on the grounds that it is too low.

The EUR 9.5 per share public offer for Ansaldo has already been cleared by Consob, Italy's securities regulator and launches on 4 January. However, the item added that Consob has reserved the right to make a ruling on the fairness of its IPO process up to 5 February, the day after the public offer ends.

As previously reported, the public offer is for the 60% of the stock that Hitachi does not own. The maximum cost of the public offer would be EUR 1.1bn.

Carlo Festa Blog

>>> German consumer confidence stages a recovery

The mood among German consumers is improving as the year draws to a close despite an increase in threat levels across Europe following the Paris terrorist attacks, according to the latest survey of sentiment by GfK.

GfK’s consumer confidence survey has nudged up to 9.4 points from 9.3 previously, ending four consecutive months of decline.

Consumers’ expectations for the German economy and their own levels of income have both improved, according to GfK while their propensity to splash out and buy goods is “extremely high level”.

GfK said:

The terrorist attacks in Paris in mid-November and the resulting increased terror threat in Germany do not seem to be impacting German consumers. Consumer mood has been continuing to improve in the last month of this year.

FT : Sir Chris Hohn’s TCI returns market-beating 14%

Sir Chris Hohn’s TCI returns market-beating 14%

Sir Chris Hohn has described the $10bn The Children’s Investment Fund he founded as “the antithesis of the classic hedge fund” after it returned a market-beating 14 per cent in a year when many rivals have floundered.
The London-based investor’s performance has placed TCI as one of the best performing equity hedge funds in the world in 2015, driven by a large bet on Spain’s airport privatisation, as well as an investment in the European aerospace company Airbus, and the US cable operator Time Warner Cable.

The 14 per cent gain for TCI takes the fund’s compounded annual returns since launching in 2004 to 18 per cent per year after fees, compared with a 6.9 per cent total annual return for the US S&P 500 index over that period.
“We are the antithesis of the classic hedge fund,” Sir Chris told the Financial Times. “We are the opposite. They are hedged, we are long. We take risk. They are short term whereas we are long term. They are passive, and we are engaged. They charge high fees, we charge less.”
His comments come in a year when some of the world’s largest hedge funds have struggled to generate returns. Some of the industry’s best known managers have suffered some of the worst annual performances of their careers. Others have shut down altogether.
Sir Chris said TCI’s investment returns, which were 29.5 per cent in 2012, 47.2 per cent in 2013, and 8.1 per cent last year, showed that highly focused, long term stock selection based on fundamental research could consistently outperform the wider market.
“People said we were finished in 2008, but we have outperformed the market since then,” he said. “We are showing that concentrated fundamental stock picking works, and that the consistent alpha generation of our strategy has been large and persistent over a very long period.”
Sir Chris added: “This is TCI’s 12th year in managing money and we have compounded at 18 per cent net of fees over that time, versus 6 per cent for the MCSI world equities index.”
An increase in the amount of money invested by conservative institutions such as pension funds into hedge funds has coincided with a drop in performance across the industry, leading to some becoming disgruntled with paying high fees for their services.
TCI operates a different fee structure to most hedge funds by using return hurdles that mean investors only pay performance fees once the fund has made a set return for the year.
While some funds still charge a fixed management fee on assets of 2 per cent, TCI charges a fee that decreases depending on how long an investor locks up their money for. This starts at 1.5 per cent a year for a one year lock up, and drops to 1 per cent for a three year lock up.
Since founding TCI in 2004 Sir Chris has used part of the fund’s fees to endow a charitable trust called the Children’s Investment Fund Foundation, which has assets worth $4bn, making it one of the largest in the UK. He was knighted for services to charity last year.

>>> What to look at today - 22nd of December 2015

Dow+0.72% S&P+0.78% Nasdaq+0.93% Russell+0.60% VIX
US Market closed higher thanks to last hour rally. Europe was under-pressure because of spain elections (Ibex-3.6%). US Equities hit their session highs during the opening hour of the trading day. All ten sectors took part in the rally, but the market ran into some resistance that coincided with renewed selling in crude oil, which ended the day lower by 1.3% at $35.79/bbl. Furthermore, the intraday selling in oil may have rekindled concerns about the high-yield debt space. final hour rally placed the S&P 500 just below its early high. The energy sector (+0.1%) ended the day just above its flat line while the remaining cyclical groups posted stronger gains. Similar to technology, industrials (+0.8%) and financials (+0.9%) had a strong showing while the consumer discretionary sector (+0.4%) underperformed. Volume were in line with average at 900mil shares. US After Hours EBF +3.2%, SCS -20.1% following earnings/guidance; ALXA +41% following Phase 2a study results, +41.2% on+ve Phase 2, NTAP-1.2% on Solidfire Acqusition (not quoted). Financial press citing an un-named Japan Govt official said that the planned issuance of deficit financing bonds in FY16 would be at ¥28.8T, which would be an 8-yr low. This was attributed to increased tax revenue arising from stronger company profits. Japan released its FY16/17 guidance, seeing nominal GDP at 3.1% and real GDP at 1.7%. CPI is seen at 0.4% but expected to rise to 1.2% in FY16/17. The report also noted that the recently complied stimulus package to add 0.6% to GDP over next 3 years. FY16/17 bond issuance was guided at ¥34.4T. China's Leaders signal more stimulus after top economic meeting but was not enough to push market higher as investors waiting for action. USD/JPY was last trading at 121.25. Oil is main driver for move in US & Asia.ALXA

Nikkei-0.16% HAng Seng+0.01% Shanghai-0.09%

Eur$ 1.0915 CNY 6.4786 JPY 121.23 GBP 1.4888 CHF 0.9929 RUB$ 71.20 WTI$36.04

S&P+0.21% EuroStoxx+0.52% Dax +0.62% SMI +0.2%


Macro :
- Greece Gets Bindings Bids for Piraeus Port Stake, HRADF Says
- Fed’s Lockhart Doesn’t See Rate Rise Snuffing Out U.S. Growth
- Permira Seeks Software, E-Commerce, Big Data Deals, Boersen Says
- Qatar National Bank to Buy Turkey’s Finansbank for $2.95 Billion --> Strategic move are starting in the region...

Keep an eye on :
- AIR FP : SpaceX Falcon 9 First Stage Landing Confirmed
- AIR FP : Iran’s Mahan Air to Buy 100 Sukhoi Jets From Russia: Manturov
- ATLN VX : Actelion Win’s FDA Approval of Uptravi for Hypertension
- AGS BB : Ageas Spends EU4.66 Mln Buying Back 113,978 Shares Dec. 14-18
- AIR FP : Airbus Signs Shr Purchase Pact for Comm. Satellite Business
- ATC NA : Altice announces completion of Suddenlink acquisition
- APC US : Anadarko Shrs Climb; Benzinga Says Sinopec Mulling Takeover
- EN FP : Orange, Bouygues Continue Takeover Talks Over Christmas: Echos
- CO FP : Casino Group affirms strength of business model, strategic plans and financial structure, strongly rejecting arguments put forward by Muddy Waters Capital (Press Release attached)
- CSGN VX : Credit Suisse Filed Arbitration Claim Vs UBS on Staff Raid: WSJ
- DEXB BB : Dexia Says Simplifying Group’s Governance
- F US : Google Teams With Ford to Build Self-Driving Cars: Yahoo Autos
- GFS LN : G4S rumoured to be private equity target - Daily Express
- JNJ US : J&J Ordered to Pay $5.5 Million Over Vaginal-Mesh Implant
- RLD SW : Edmond De Rothschild Sees 2015 Net Inflows of Chf8b: Les Echos
- MRL SM : Merlin Properties Obtains EU1.7b Loan to Pay Testa-Related Debts
- ETE GA : Finansbank Sale to Boost National Bank Liquidity by EU3.5b
- NDA SS : Nordea, DNB May Seek to Sell Their Loans to Eniro, SVD Reports
- ORA FP : Orange, Bouygues Continue Takeover Talks Over Christmas: Echos
- OR FP : Serge Lutens acquired by Shiseido for undisclosed amount
- SAN FP : India May Exempt Sanofi Dengue Drug From Large-Scale Trials: ET
- SYNN VX : Syngenta Raised at Jefferies; Probability of Transaction Is High
- USG NA : Recruit Offers 31% Premium to Acquire USG People

>>> G4S rumoured to be private equity target - report

G4S rumoured to be private equity target 

G4S [LON:GFS], the UK-based security and services group, is rumoured to be a potential takeover target for a private equity firm, according to gossip mentioned in a Daily Express market report.

The chatter suggests a predator from the private-equity sector is currently scrutinising G4S with a view to making a bid approach, the report said.

London-listed G4S has a market capitalisation of GBP 3.39bn (USD 5.05bn).

Daily Express

>>> Casino Group affirms strength of business model, strategic plans and financi

(Full Press Released attached)
Casino Group affirms strength of business model, strategic plans and financial structure, strongly rejecting arguments put forward by Muddy Waters Capital

On December 15th, 2015, Casino Group announced a plan to strengthen its balance sheet and enhance its financial flexibility with a deleveraging plan of more than EUR 2bn through real estate transactions and disposal of non-core assets. On December 17th, after having acquired significant short positions on Casino, Muddy Waters Capital issued a report questioning Casino Group’s strategy, financial strength and long term value. Muddy Waters Capital’s report contains a number of false and misleading allegations, intended to negatively impact the trading prices of Casino’s stock and debt, for the benefit of the report’s author who, in his own words, should be assumed to have “a short position in all stocks (…) and bonds covered [in the report], and therefore stands to realize significant gains in the event that the price of either declines.”

Muddy Waters reduced its short position on December 17th, 2015. Compare Muddy Waters Capital LLC, Public disclosure of significant net short positions in shares, AMF filing reference 2015E405494 (Dec. 18th, 2015) (reflecting position net short position of 0.66% in Casino Guichard-Perrachon) with Muddy Waters Capital LLC, Public disclosure of significant net short positions in shares, AMF filing reference 2015E405173 (Dec. 17, 2015) (reflecting position net short position of 0.92% in Casino Guichard-Perrachon). The VWAP of Casino stock was EUR 49.39 on Dec. 16th, 2015 and EUR 43.42 on Dec. 17th, 2015 (source: Bloomberg).

Casino Group highlights the following important elements:
1. Casino Group has solid business dynamics, with its performance driven in particular by the accelerating recovery of its French operations;
2. Commercial Real Estate development and monetization is a structural, value creating component of Casino Group’s operations;
3. Casino Group’s deleveraging plan is entirely consistent with its long-term strategy;
4. Casino’s liquidity is strong and comfortably covers all its upcoming debt repayments beyond 2017;
5. Casino Group’s financial structure is solid; S&P and Fitch very recently reiterated Casino’s investment grade status;
6. S&P's rating methodology relies on analyses and adjustments commonly applied to all issuers;
7. Casino Group strictly applies international accounting standards and the Group’s financial accounts are certified by its external auditors. In addition, most of its large subsidiaries are listed with additional scrutiny from their respective regulators and market authorities;
8. Casino Group's policy is not to issue opinions on external valuations of its stock. However, Casino notes that the average target price derived from the consensus of 23 analysts covering Casino amounts to EUR 55 per share as of December 18th, 2015

As a conclusion, Casino strongly rejects all arguments put forward by Muddy Waters Capital. Casino Group benefits from both solid business dynamics and sound financial structure. The Group remains confident on its business outlook and its capacity to create value for all stakeholders of the Group.

>>> Serge Lutens acquired by Shiseido for undisclosed amount

Serge Lutens acquired by Shiseido for undisclosed amount 

Shiseido, the listed Japanese fragrances and cosmetics group, has finalised the acquisition of family-owned luxury perfumer Serge Lutens, French daily Les Echos reported. Terms of the deal were not disclosed. The report cited Hassan Saada, chairman of the target, as confirming the news.

Serge Lutens reported sales of EUR 40m in 2015.

Les Echos