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La France plaide pour un "corridor de prix" dans l'UE

En attendant, Paris promet un prix plancher unilatéral

Ce système ne viserait d'abord que la production électrique

par Emmanuel Jarry

PARIS, 25 avril (Reuters) - En attendant de convaincre ses partenaires européens de réformer un marché du carbone communautaire inefficace, la France taxera unilatéralement à un prix plancher l'utilisation des énergies fossiles pour la production d'électricité à partir de 2017.

François Hollande, tout juste de retour de la signature à New York de l'accord de Paris sur la lutte contre le changement climatique, l'a annoncé à l'ouverture de la dernière conférence environnementale de son quinquennat, lundi. (Full Story)

Aujourd'hui, la combinaison d'un cours très faible de la tonne de CO2 sur le marché européen des quotas d'émission (entre cinq et six euros) et de prix très bas du charbon rend beaucoup plus rentable de faire tourner des centrales au charbon qu'au gaz alors qu'elles sont deux fois plus polluantes.

La France plaide pour que l'Union européenne mette en place un "corridor de prix", avec un plancher et un plafond entre lesquels oscillerait le cours du carbone sur le marché européen, un peu sur le modèle du "serpent monétaire" d'avant l'euro.

Ce système permettrait de réduire la volatilité des prix du CO2 tout en améliorant sa prévisibilité, pour inciter davantage les investissements bas carbone.

Si l'idée d'un tel système, qui concernerait les quelque 11.000 sites industriels de l'UE gros émetteurs de gaz à effet de serre, fait son chemin, le temps semble cependant encore loin où il pourra être appliqué à toute l'UE.

Le chef de l'Etat a donc annoncé que la France donnerait l'exemple en fixant unilatéralement un prix plancher du carbone pour la seule production d'électricité.

Selon la ministre de l'Ecologie, Ségolène Royal, ce prix plancher, qui prendra la forme d'une taxe sur la tonne de CO2 émise par les centrales thermiques, sera fixé par la prochaine loi de finances et applicable au 1er janvier 2017.

"Le marché n'est pas opérant aujourd'hui (...) Il faut bien que quelqu'un commence", a-t-elle dit en marge de la conférence environnementale. "On est en train de calculer comment favoriser dans un premier temps le passage du charbon au gaz."

30 EUROS LA TONNE

Selon ses services, les cinq dernières centrales à charbon en France fonctionnent en moyenne chacune 4.000 heures par an, contre 1.700 heures pour les centrales au gaz.

L'objectif est de réduire le fonctionnement des premières à 200 heures par an chacune et celui des centrales au gaz à 500 heures, le fonctionnement des centrales au fioul étant marginal en France (EDF EDF.PA s'est engagé à fermer les siennes d'ici 2018), précise-t-on de même source.

Cela permettrait d'éviter l'émission de 12 millions de tonnes de CO2 par an, l'équivalent des émissions enregistrées en janvier 2016, dit-on au ministère de l'Ecologie.

Celui-ci n'est pas encore en mesure de préciser à quel niveau ce plancher devra être fixé pour inciter les producteurs d'électricité à recourir à d'autres sources primaires que le charbon, voire le gaz naturel, et parvenir à ce résultat.

Selon les calculs de la Fondation Nicolas Hulot, il devrait être d'environ 30 euros la tonne, compte tenu des prix actuels du charbon et du gaz. Un montant conforme à ce que Paris propose à ses partenaires européens d'envisager au niveau de l'UE.

Ce dispositif se distingue de la composante carbone progressive instaurée par la loi de finances 2014 dans la taxe intérieure de consommation sur les produits énergétiques (TICPE), qui vise les émissions diffuses de CO2 par le biais, essentiellement, de la consommation de carburants, par exemple pour le chauffage ou dans les transports.

De sept euros par tonne de CO2 en 2014, cette "contribution climat énergie" a été portée à 14,5 euros en 2015 et 22 euros en 2016. La loi de transition énergétique prévoit de porter cette composante de la TICPE à 56 euros la tonne en 2020 et 100 en 2030, en passant par 30,5 en 2017, 39 en 2018, 47,5 en 2019.

La France plaide pour l'adoption et la généralisation de ce dispositif au niveau européen.

26-APR-2016 10:10:00 April 26 (Reuters) -

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There are a number of other factors which suggest, in our view, that this anomaly between bond yields and cyclicals will be resolved by a rise in yields: (i) The rise in ISM new orders or industrial commodity prices is consistent with higher bond yields. The oil price is up c.55% from its low but US 10-year bond yields are down c.20bps since the low in the oil price; a rise in oil price of this magnitude has never historically been associated with a fall in bond yields; (ii) There are some signs of stronger US inflation (with a slight uptick in core PCE inflation, and the Atlanta Fed wage tracker); (iii) Bond yields are currently 1.4std below our simple model's estimate of fair value; and (iv) Often yields rise in the 3-6 weeks following a commencement or acceleration of QE.

Investment implications: (1) Sell expensive European bond proxies such as consumer staples and regulated utilities (with the former appearing to price in both negative Bund yields and a collapse in US ISM); we have Underperform ratings on Danone, Henkel and Pennon; (2) We would look to buy the beneficiaries of rising bond yields, and in particular banks (which in Europe's case have decoupled from macro momentum to an extraordinary degree); (3) Focus on the 'safer' plays in composites/life insurers. These stocks tend to outperform when bond yields rise, especially those with significant US exposure (such as Prudential and Aegon). Critically, they are the most sensitive sector to credit spreads (after banks) and should have performed better given the collapse in the iTraxx index. Earnings momentum, dividend momentum and yield relatives all look attractive (AXA and L&G); (4) We stick to our overweight of European domestic demand-related cyclicals. We are more cautious of US cyclicals as they appear relatively expensive and US lead indicators have been weaker than those in Europe

What is the explanation behind the decoupling between bond yields and cyclicals? In our view, the most important explanation is Janet Yellen, whose language became more dovish as markets, PMIs and financial conditions all improved. As a result, the market is now pricing in around one rate rise this year, while our economists expect two rate hikes this year

PDL - Prodn beats at 2.62Mct. Upgrades prodn guidance for FY to 3.6-3.65..+3%

UPM - Looks like EBITDA beat 403m v 363m cons. Keeps FY forecast........+2-3%

THALES - Huge DCNS order win ($39bn contract) positive for sentiment......+2%

BAYER - Sales 2% miss but EBITDA 12% beat and EPS 10% beat v cons the key.+2%

BATS - Good. Orggrowth 7.5% v cons 5.1%. Volumes line -0.6 v act +2.4%....+2%

M6 - FTA ad growth beat. EBITDA 6.5% ahead of cons, rev broadly inline....+2%

SAFRAN - Q1 sales beat with rev 3% beat. Won't comment on Zodiac rumours+1-2%

BOOHOO - Numbers look 2-3% better across the board. Stock has had run...+1-2%

SJ JAMES - AUM 3% beat v cons, gross flows and value also beat cons.....+1-2%

WHITBREAD - Inline. EBIT £569mn v £566mn. Outlook looks satisfactory....+1-2%

DSM - Good beat. Q1 EBITDA 8% beat at 296 v 274 cons, outlook maintained..+1%

ORANGE - Solid. Q1 inline with revs 0.6% ahead at EUR10bn. Guidance reit..+1%

JARDINE LLOYD - Good start in trading performance. FY 16 remains on track.+1%

BP - Positive. Cut 2017 capex guidance again to $15-17bn (from $17-19bn)..+1%

UMICORE - Rev +1% y/y in 1Q16, cons at +8.3% for H1. FY16 guidance v weak.u/c

SOFTWARE AG - Q1 rev 4% beat, EPS beat, FCF inline. Confirms FY16 outlook.u/c

LUFTHANSA - Warns of 'massive flight cancellations' due to German strikes.u/c

RANDSTAD - Q1 inline with EBITDA EUR 169m, EPS 3% beat €0.67 vs €0.65.....u/c

SWEDBANK - Mixed. Pretax profit 4% beat but NII 1.4% miss. Capital -40bps.-1%

THYSSEN - France's DCNS wins tender to build 12 submarines for Australia..-1%

AIR LIQUIDE - Org growth touch light at 4.2% v company provided cons 4.3%.-1%

CS:
Adecco -1% Negative read from Randstand's numbers

Air Liquide -1% 1Q rev misses ests but cap inc not as big as expected

Aixtron +2% Management reiterates full year 2016 guidance

Ams -3-5% Q1 2% beat but guidance is weak

BATS +2% Q1 rev up 7.5% est up 5.1%

Bayer +2% Q1 Net sales EU 11.9b est EU 12.1b, confims 2016 forecast

Boohoo +2-3% FY revs 1% beat, EBITDA 3% beat, encouraging start to FY17

BP +1-2% Adj net $532mn v consensus loss of $140m

Charles Vog +1% No's slightly light but guidance inline

Cobham -20% Q1 tough, sees a £15m profit shortfall for FY

Countrywide -2% Numbers inline but outlook cautious

Equiniti M/P Numbers inline with market expectations

Fiat +1% Recalls related to the rollaway issue, nothing new

Lonza +5%+ Strongest 1Q in history in terms of sales and earnings

Lufthansa -1% Warned “massive flight cancellations” at hubs

Miners UNCH Copper -1.40%, Brent -0.65%, Iron Ore -1.20%, China -0.14%

Millicom M/P 1Q Ebitda Beats Estimates, Revenue Misses
Orange +1% Q1 Rev EU 10b est EU 10b, outlook unchanged

Petra Diamond M/P Rev's light, Raises production guidance for FY16

Randstad -2-3% No's inline, outlook light, Margin tgt is 5-6% was 4.6%

Royal Mail +1% CS upgrade to NEUTRAL (Valuation + Cost cutting)

Saltzgitter -4-5% Q1 sales 4.5% miss, cites "extremely challenging market"

Safran +2% Q1 Adj Rev EU 4.24b est EU 4.12b, confirms FY outlook

Smiths +1% CS upgrade to OUTPERFORM (Valuation)

Software UNCH Numbers inline with pre-release on 12 April

Stratec -1-2% No's slightly light, Confirms FY outlook

St James +1-2% FUM £62bn, 55.8bn at end-2015, 3% beat

Swedbank +1% Bottom line better, CET1 at 23.7%

Thales +3% France Wins $39 Billion Contract to Build Australian Subs

Thyssen -1% France Wins $39 Billion Contract to Build Australian Subs

Tieto +1% Sales EU368m vs est. EU370m, guidance looks better

Umicore UNCH EBIT Guidance 335-360mln cons 345mln

Whitbread +1-2% No's inline, good start to year, maintain guidnce.


RBC:
AIR LIQUIDE -1% Q1 revenues miss, AIRGAS deal on track, outlook reiterated.

AIXTRON +2% Earnings miss but v low expectations, , guidance reiterated.

BATS +2% Q1 revenues +7.5% v +5.1% exp. Volumes ahead, strong H2 exp.

BAYER +2% Q1 ahead across the board, strong XARELTO sales, new drugs beat

BP +2% Q1 positive, adj net income ahead on Downstream beat. Call @ 2pm

CASINO 0% CNOVA review update, EBIT ahead but further issues identified.

COBHAM -15% Warning, trading profits @ £15m v £50m exp. - £500m rts issue

DSM +2% Q1 profit beat, Nutrition ahead, US mkt slow, maintain outlook

ORANGE +1% Q1 revenues inline, EBITDA flat, no discussion with KPN/ZAIN

PETRA D. -2% Q3 IMS light due to weakness @ Cullinan.

RANDSTAD 0% Q1 EBITDA inline, org gorwth +5%, GM flat, geographically inline

SAB MILLER -1% Kulczyk placing half their holding (24m shrs) @ 4180

SAFRAN +1% Q1'16 adj revenues inline, LEAP on track, no ZODIAC comment

SALZGITTER -4% Q1 sales and earnings light as expected, sector down overnight

SWEDBANK -2% Q1 pre-tax miss, total rev miss, NII small miss v consensus.

TELEFONICA -2% EU Anti-trust regulator to block Huchison's O2 deal

THALES +2% Own 35% of DCNS, contract win to build submarines, Australia.

THYSSENKRUP -4% Loses bid to build 12 Submarines for Australia, sector weakness

UMICORE 0% Q1 trading update bang inline, but enough?

WHITBREAD 0% Inline update, positive COSTA sales, reiterate outlook


Mainfirst:
*BAYER-Sales 11.9b(12.1),Ebitda 3.4b(3.1),Ebit 2.34b(2.17)............+1.5%

*ORANGE-Rev €10.b(10),Restated Ebitda 2.57b(2.56),Confirms tgts.......+2%

*AIR LIQ-Rev €3.872b(3.968),Airgas Acq's on track,Reits outlook.......-2%

*SAFRAN-Q1 Adj Rev €4.24bln vs est €4.12bln,Confirms FY o/look........+1%

*TIETO-Q1 Net Sales €368m(370),OP Ex €31.5m(31.6),FY unch.............-0.5%

*DSM-Ebitda €296m(271),Rev €1.91b(1.93),Net €84m(72.4),o/l unch.......+2%

*SWEDBANK-NI SK4.31b(4.03),NII SK5.62b(5.71),LL SK35m(-319)...........-2%

*LONZA-Bizz perf above tgt,DD Ebit grth H1,FY reviewed with H1........+2%

*RANDSTAD-Rev €4.7b(4.71),Ebita €169m,March Rev grew by 4.6%..........U/C

*THYSSEN-DCNS wins submarines tender worth $39bln(Thales/DCNS)........-5%

*AMS-Sales 137.2m(136.6),Ebit 19.7m(24.5),Net 13.6m(21.7),Q2 weak.....-15%

*SALZGITTER-Ext Sales €1.9b(1.99),PT 3.1m(-12.5)Incl Aurubis 11.6m....-0.5%

*AIXTRON-Ord Intake 44.4m(38),Sales 21.4m(29),Ebit -14.7m(-15)........+5%
*STRATEC BIO-Sales 31.2m(33),Ebit 4.53m(5),FY Sales look lite.........-5%

*SOFTWARE-Final figs NI 29.5m,FCF 60.5m,Ebit 45.3m,Reits outlook......-0.5%

*THALES-Read across from DCNS contract win............................+2%


ShoreCap:
BATS - volumes +3.6%,market share +20bps,revs +7.5%,environment challenging.UNCH

ST.JAMES'S PLACE - inflows +16% £2.45bn,record inflow in March,FuM at £62bn..+2%

COUNTRYWIDE - strong Q1,exchanges +30%,Q2 to slow,maintains FY outlook......UNCH

DIALIGHT - demand remains inline with expec,continues to target EBITDA growth+2%

STV GROUP - Q2 national revs flat,regional +12%,positive start to year......UNCH

BROOKS MACDONALD - FuM +2.4% at £8bn,organic growth remained strong.........UNCH

CARPETRIGHT - LfL sales +0.7%,FY margins guidance revised lower............-1.5%

REAL GOOD FOOD - trading inline, sees exceptional profits of £9.4m..........UNCH

JARDINE LLOYD - gd start to yr,challenging environment,headwinds to persist..-1%

BREEDON - looks for favourable outcome from the CMA re acquisition of Hope..UNCH

BOOHOO - Fy ebitda in line.Sees fy 2017 sales up about 25%..................UNCH

BP - Q1 net pft $532m(est244.9 loss).Sees Q2 production lower than Q1........-2%

COBHAM - Q1 trading behind forecasts.Sees fy profit shortfall about 15m.....-10%

WHITBREAD - Fy sales +12%.Fy pbt 487.7.Confident forward statement...........+2%

SANDERSON - Group trading results for 6 months in line with estimates.......UNCH

EMIS - Says trading in line with expectations...............................UNCH