FT : BHP takes $7bn hit on US shale operation

BHP takes $7bn hit on US shale operation

BHP Billiton revealed a huge hit from the sharp fall in the oil price with a $7.2bn writedown on its extensive US shale assets.
The asset impairment, which equates to $4.9bn after tax, is the largest announced by the Anglo-Australian group during a wrenching commodities downturn that is devastating the mining and energy sectors.

BHP, the most valuable miner by market capitalisation, has always been unusual in the sector by virtue of its significant oil business. It vastly expanded its exposure to oil in 2012 when it spent more than $20bn on US shale acquisitions.
The impairments announced on Friday mean BHP has now written off almost $13bn on the deals in which, in addition to the purchase costs, it has committed more than $15bn of capital investment. The group said the value of its onshore US assets now stood at $16bn, after depreciation and amortisation and including $4bn of deferred tax liabilities.
Andrew Mackenzie, chief executive, said oil and gas markets had been significantly weaker than expected. “We responded quickly by dramatically cutting our operating and capital costs . . . while we have made significant progress, the dramatic fall in prices has led to the disappointing writedown announced today,” he said.
“However, we remain confident in the long term outlook and the quality of our acreage. We are well positioned to respond to a recovery.”
BHP said it would significantly reduce output from its US fields, cutting the number of rigs to five from 26 a year ago.
The change highlights how the environment in the US shale sector has soured for BHP, which had previously emphasised its sharply reduced operating costs and the flexibility of its US business compared with its longer-term mining operations.
The sharp downturn in the oil sector increases the likelihood that BHP will make an unprecedented dividend cut, perhaps as soon as next month when the group is due to announce its results for the first half of its financial year.

BHP has not cut its progressive dividend since its merger with Billiton in 2001. But payouts have been slashed across the mining sector as the commodities slump has wreaked havoc with miners’ ability to reward shareholders.
The group had already been hit by the falling price of iron ore — down more than 75 per cent from peaks in 2011 — and copper, which is down more than half from its peak.
BHP’s investments in shale increased significantly under Marius Kloppers, Mr Mackenzie’s predecessor. He left BHP almost three years ago as the incipient commodities downturn forced the mining sector to curb its expansionary plans and slash spending.
BHP said it was cutting its medium and long-term gas price assumptions as well as its short and medium-term oil price assumptions. “Our long-term [oil] price assumptions continue to reflect the market’s attractive supply and demand fundamentals,” it said.

(CS) Glencore Refinancing steps should reduce funding

■ Action: GLEN has launched refinancing of its $8.5bn revolving credit facility. Typically this is done in Q2 each year but the company has moved early to dispel ongoing funding concerns. We expect the refinancing to be completed before full year results in March and this will provide liquidity and funding out to 2018. Compared to current bond and CDS levels the market is likely to be surprised by the refinancing terms, in our view. 
■ Existing revolver: We provide a debt schedule in Fig 1. The existing $15.3bn syndicated revolving credit facility was signed in June 2015 of which $6.6bn has been drawn. Funds drawn under these facilities bear interest at US$ LIBOR plus 40-45 bps pa. This facility is made up of: an $8.5bn 12 month revolver with a 12 month term-out option and a 12 month extension option (out to May 2017) and a $6.8bn (undrawn) 5 year revolving facility with two 12 month extension options. 
■ Investment case: We continue to think the sell-off in H215 was over-done given the underpin to cash flows from the trading business. At current prices we expect the company to generate FCF (ex WC or asset sales) of c$2bn in 2016, similar in size to RIO and BHP despite the market cap being less than a third of the size. It remains the cheapest stock by some way on cash flow metrics with a base/spot 2016E FCF yield of 21/14%. Financial leverage is high, making delivery

(CS) Truck market outlook increasingly mixed, initiating coverage with a cautiou

Truck market outlook increasingly mixed, initiating coverage with a cautious view

* Cautious sector view – prefer Volvo (OP) to CNH (UP): We initiate coverage of European truck OEMs and suppliers with a cautious view. Developed markets are near or past the peak, while the risk for developing markets is still to the downside. Cyclical drivers in Europe are likely to remain supportive near term, but sustainability of the current upcycle is a concern. We like self-help in this environment and initiate on Volvo with an Outperform rating and CNH with an Underperform

* Europe positive near term, sustainability uncertain (2016E +7.6%): Near-term momentum remains solid, though we think growth is unlikely to surprise to the upside in 2016. The current cycle is supported by strong retail goods demand and business confidence. However, the cycle (ex-Euro 6 effects) has been unusually lengthy, and the structural problems of the market increase the downside risk once it ends. We believe it is too early to make a more negative call on Europe

* Key downside risk is the NA market (2016E -22%): A declining market in 2016 is well understood as orders have declined for 10 consecutive months. However, the magnitude could surprise to the downside – cyclical transportation demand indicators deteriorated sharply into year-end, with tonnage and truckload pricing both weakest since 2013, and the business inventory-to-sales ratio at 2009 levels. Carriers have already increased cancellations, and 2016 capex could be hurt by declining freight expenditure

* Self-help key for relative Outperform: Among OEMs, we prefer Volvo (Outperform, TP SEK 100) to CNH (Underperform, €TP 5.4), as we think it is on course to deliver on its SEK 10bn savings target with potential for upside surprise. For Daimler (Neutral, new TP €76 from €78), we see earnings downside risk on overly optimistic truck expectations. Within suppliers, cyclical risks outweigh valuation upside; we are Neutral on both SAF Holland (TP €10.8) and Deutz (TP €3.1). We remain Underperform on VW with a new TP of €85 (from €83).

(GS) All that glitters? Gold sector to attractive, ANG to Buy

Gold has started 2016 strongly on safe-haven status
Gold was fairly stable after the Fed raised rates at the December FOMC
meeting, but has outperformed other commodities this year on demand for
safe-haven assets amid market volatility. Our macro team is positive on US
growth: hence we expect gold to moderate to US$1,000/oz by end-2016.

Upgrading ANG (FCF/catalysts) to Buy; ACAA (underperformance)
and GFI (significant FX tailwinds) to Neutral; Poly down to Neutral
We upgrade ANG to Buy from Neutral on strong FCF and scope for valueaccretive
corporate action (dividend reinstatement and/or a potential split).
Acacia is upgraded to Neutral from Sell following underperformance (Buly
performance slippage). With CEO Brad Gordon taking over operations, we
believe operations could surprise to the upside (potentially visible in the
next results). We upgrade Gold Fields (a key FX beneficiary) to Neutral
from Sell and downgrade Polymetal to Neutral (from Buy) given recent
outperformance and a fair valuation.

>>> What to look at today - 15th of January 2016

Dow+1.41% S&P+1.67% Nasdaq+1.97% Russell+1.53% VIX 23.96 (-5%)
US Market closed near the highs of the day. crude oil also built on its gain, ending its pit session higher by 2.6% at $31.22/bbl. JPM reported better numbers. JPMorgan addressed its first loan loss reserve build in six years, which was driven by downgrades, specifically in the company's oil and gas portfolio. The company went on to state that oil companies have been surprisingly resilient and that they expect to see a normal cycle increase as the economy looks "pretty good.". St. Louis Fed President James Bullard stated that the "very substantial" decline in energy pricing has implications for monetary policy, but Mr. Bullard still believes that four rate hikes this year "sounds about right." Interestingly, stocks surged immediately following the comments, all but ignoring his unchanged outlook for the fed funds rate path. energy sector (+4.5%) end in the lead while health care (+2.7%), technology (+2.0%), telecom services (+1.8%), and materials (+1.4%) followed. INTC +2.6% ahead of earnings. Volume were above average @ 1.2bil shares. US After Hours INTC -4.7%, THS -3.5%, ADI -2.5%, EDUC +2.2%. Asian equities used to follow the tone set on Wall St but have been transformed into the pace-setter in the early part of the year. Today's rally in US indices has indeed produced no carryover to Asian trading, and the turmoil in the far east is signalling a softer open. US equity futures are down nearly 1% while Shanghai Composite has erased most of yesterday's rally. Risk-off sentiment is boosting JPY, with USD/JPY falling 70pips from the highs to 117.60. Oil is down 2% and gold is rallying. In Japan, the yen currency printed the high for the day when BOJ Gov Kuroda suggested there was no plan to add to policy easing.

Nikkei -0.54% Hang Seng -1.42% Shanghai -3.55%

Eur$1.0872 CNH 6.6167 CNY 6.5870 JPY 117.75 GBP 1.4385 RUB$ 76.45 WTI $30.38 (-2.63%)

S&P -0.80% EuroStoxx -0.46% Dax -0.37% SMI -0.04%

Macro :
- Goldman In Settlement W/ RMBS Group; To Cut 4Q Earnings by $1.5b
- Swiss Currency Shock Reverberates One Year After Cap Abandoned
- Norway Declares Crisis in Oil Industry as Devaluation Continues

Keep an eye on :
- AB1 GY : Etihad Airways May Continue Codesharing Flights With Air Berlin
- AIR FP : Boeing Well Placed to Win at Least Part of United Order: Reuters
- STS IM : Ansaldo STS 2015 Rev EU1.38b, Up 6.2%; Net Income Up 15.3%
- BLT LN : BHP Expects $4.9b Impairment Charge on Onshore U.S. Assets
- CA FP : Carrefour 4Q Sales In Line With Ests., Confirms 2015 Profit View
- CO FP : Casino Guichard ‘Taking Steps’ to Sell Big C in Thailand
- CO FP : Wal-Mart Said to Have Closed About 60 Brazil Stores: Reuters
- CNA LN : Centrica Said to Prepare Bid for N. Irish Power Company Viridian
- DLG GY : Dialog Semiconductor Says It Won’t Revise Bid for Atmel
- EDP PL : EDP Renovaveis Awarded 93MW in Spanish Renewable Energy Auction
- ELUXB SS : Haier said to be nearing deal to purchase GE Appliances unit, paying about $4B - financial press
- EXPN LN : Experian 3Q Rev. at Actual FX Rates Down 3%, Sees FX Headwinds
- GAM SM : Gamesa Receives Orders in China to Supply 98MW in Two Projects
- HMB SS : H&M December Sales Beat Estimates
- LGEN LN : Legal & General to Sell Suffolk Life to Curtis Banks for GBP45m
- LUPE SS : Lundin Family Not Willing to Sell Lundin Petroleum Stake: DI
- MC FP : Louis Vuitton to Unveil New Watch Today in Geneva: Le Figaro
- RNO FP : Renault Probably Hasn’t Used Emissions Cheating Device: Analysts
- SZG GY : Salzgitter Sees Addtnl Tax Expenses on German Div. Income Ruling
- SAN SM : Santander Said to Ready Fresh Bid for RBS Branches: Sky
- SYNN VX : ChemChina Said to Move Step Closer to Potential Syngenta Deal
- TNET BB : Liberty Global Raises Telenet Holding to 57.22% of Voting Rights
- VIV FP : Vivendi Gets Net Proceeds of $1.1B Selling Activision Blizzard
- ZC FP : Zodiac Aerospace Sees Current Op Margin 2016/17 Up 2 Ppts Y/y

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & DOwngrades - 15th of January 2016

>>> Up
*AIR LIQUIDE RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT UBS
*AKZO NOBEL RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN
*BANCO POPOLARE RAISED TO HOLD VS SELL AT BERENBERG
*CRH RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT EXANE
*CRODA RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN
*DEUTSCHE BOERSE RAISED TO OUTPERFORM AT MACQUARIE
*EDF RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT SOCGEN
*HUNTING RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT MACQUARIE
*LINDE RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT UBS
*LUNDIN PETROLEUM RAISED TO BUY AT NORDEA
*SCA RAISED TO EQUALWEIGHT VS UNDERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*SIEMENS RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT KEPLER CHEUVREUX
*TDC RAISED TO HOLD AT NORDEA
*WOOD GROUP RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS UNDERPERFORM AT MACQUARIE

>>> Down
*BRENNTAG CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT DEUTSCHE BANK
*DUNELM CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT CANACCORD
*ERICSSON CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT DEUTSCHE BANK
*EVONIK CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*JUPITER FUND MANAGEMENT CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT CITI
*NOVARTIS CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*RESTAURANT GROUP CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*RICARDO CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT BERENBERG
*SAFRAN CUT TO SELL VS BUY AT INVESTEC
*VIRBAC CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT EXANE
*WOLSELEY CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT EXANE

>>> PT Change


>>> Initiation
*AKER SOLUTIONS RATED NEW UNDERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN, PT NOK23.3
*AMUNDI RATED NEW HOLD AT DEUTSCHE BANK; PT EU45.70
*CNH RATED NEW UNDERPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE
*IMPELLAM RATED NEW BUY AT INVESTEC, PT 950P
*PRUDENTIAL RATED NEW OUTPERFORM AT MACQUARIE; PT 1,536P
*SBM OFFSHORE RATED NEW NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN, PT EU13.2
*SEADRILL RATED NEW UNDERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN, PT NOK20.2
*TITAN CEMENT RATED NEW BUY AT BERENBERG, PT EU21
*VOLVO RATED NEW OUTPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE

>>> Call
>> Sector
*EUROPEAN TRANSPORT SECTOR CUT TO NEUTRAL VS POSITIVE: BARCLAYS

>>> US After Hours Summary


After Hours Summary

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance:  
EDUC +2.2%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news:  AE +2.1% (subsidiary acquired a 30% member interest in Ben Cap for $2.2 mln), BTG +1.3% (reported Q4 gold production +18% y/y to of 131,469 ounces and issues 2016 production outlook for gold production of 510-550K ounces). 

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance:  INTC -4.7%, THS -3.5%, ADI -2.5%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news:  BIOA -5.2% (commenced public offering of its common stock), EPR -2.9% (has commenced an underwritten public offering of 2,250,000 of its common shares of beneficial interest), AKRX -0.9% (engaged BDO USA as the co's independent registered public accounting firm; estimates of errors resulted in an overstatement to net revenue and pretax income from continuing operations of ~$35 mln).

>>> Asian Update

Asian Market Update: Softer China lending and Yuan fix renew selloff

***Economic Data***
- (CN) CHINA DEC NEW YUAN LOANS (CNY): 598B V 700BE
- (CN) CHINA DEC M2 MONEY SUPPLY Y/Y: 13.3% (3-month low) V 13.6%E; M1 MONEY SUPPLY Y/Y: 15.2% V 15.5%E
- (CN) CHINA DEC AGGREGATE FINANCING (CNY): 1.82T V 1.15TE
- (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV HOME LOANS M/M: +1.8% V -0.5%E
- (NZ) New Zealand Dec Food Prices M/M: +0.8% v -0.2% prior
- (ID) INDONESIA DECEMBER TRADE BALANCE: -$0.2B v +$0.1Be
- (JP) Japan investors buy net ¥323B in foreign bonds v net bought ¥86B in prior week; Foreign investors sell net ¥747B in Japan stocks v bought ¥136B in Japan stocks in prior week
- (PE) PERU CENTRAL BANK (BCRP) RAISED REFERENCE RATE BY 25BPS TO 4.00%. AS EXPECTED
- (CL) CHILE CENTRAL BANK (BCCH) LEAVES OVERNIGHT RATE TARGET UNCHANGED AT 3.50%, AS EXPECTED

***Index Snapshot (as of 05:00 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 -0.3%, S&P/ASX -0.5%, Kospi -1.1%, Shanghai Composite -1.5%, Hang Seng -0.8%, Mar S&P500 -0.9% at 1,898

***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Feb gold +0.7% at $1,081/oz, Feb crude oil -2.0% at $30.59/brl, Mar copper -0.6% at $1.97/lb
- (CN) PBOC SETS YUAN MID POINT AT 6.5637 V 6.5616 PRIOR; 6th straight firmer setting relative to Close; - Prior close 6.5890
- (HK) Hong Kong Financial Sec Tsang: To closely monitor HKD market - financial press
- (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$900M in 5.75% 2022 Bonds; avg yield: 2.35%; bid-to-cover: 2.09x
- (US) Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets for week ending Jan 13th: $4.50T v $4.49T prior; M1: +$139.3B (multi-year high) v -$7.2B prior; M2: -$16.7B v -$11.4B prior

***Market Focal Points/FX***
- Asian equities used to follow the tone set on Wall St but have been transformed into the pace-setter in the early part of the year. Today's rally in US indices has indeed produced no carryover to Asian trading, and the turmoil in the far east is signalling a softer open. US equity futures are down nearly 1% while Shanghai Composite has erased most of yesterday's rally. Risk-off sentiment is boosting JPY, with USD/JPY falling 70pips from the highs to 117.60. Oil is down 2% and gold is rallying. AUD/USD - the proxy for China slowdown in the G10 fx space - was also down about 60pips from the highs below 0.6950.

- China's FX policy and economic data were seen as the catalysts for the selling. In the case of the former, the daily Yuan fix was set slightly softer relative to the prior setting, albeit still firmer than the prior close. The latter saw disappointing New Yuan lending - one of the components of the famed Li Keqiang index - and slower money supply growth. Commentary from PBoC sought to soothe the impact, noting money supply growth has been rapid since Q4 and liquidity is ample. Likewise, a state researcher said the economy will maintain stable and continued GDP growth. Earlier, a Chinese press report indicated the govt would accelerate project construction in several provinces in 2016 to help stabilize growth.

- In Japan, the yen currency printed the high for the day when BOJ Gov Kuroda suggested there was no plan to add to policy easing. Kuroda reiterated domestic price trend is improving steadily and there was no plan to change the inflation target as he continued to point to low energy prices in capping inflation. BOJ Gov did acknowledge that the pace of wage growth is slow considering the job market and record high corporate profits. Slow rate of pass through in wage growth was symbolized by Toyota amid reports that this year's base wage hike request would be half of last year's.

***Equities***
US equities / ADRs:
- ADI: Cuts Q1 $0.51-0.55 v $0.69e, R$745-765M v $830Me (prior $0.65-0.73, $805-855M); -2.3% afterhours
- INTC: Reports Q4 $0.74 v $0.63e, R$14.9B v $14.8Be; Gross margins 64.3% v 65.4% y/y; -4.9% afterhours

After Extended Session:
- GE: Haier said to be nearing deal to purchase GE Appliances unit, paying about $4B - financial press

Key movers in Asia:
- Sharp 6753.JP +16.5%; Hon Hai reportedly may increase offer for Sharp to ¥700B from ¥500B - Japan press
- Guangzhou Automobile 2238.HK +3.0% (profit alert)
- BHP: +1.3%; To recognize post-tax impairment charge on US assets of $4.9B for H1 (Dec-end)
- Shanghai Electric Group 601727.CN +0.6% (approval for restructuring plan).
- Lifan Industry (Group) 601777.CN -2.9% (Dec result)
- BBMG Corp 2009.HK -3.9% (profit warning)
- Kawasaki Heavy 7012.jp -7.1% (Brazil impairment)

WSJ : Goldman Reaches $5 Billion Settlement Over Mortgage-Backed Securities

Goldman Reaches $5 Billion Settlement Over Mortgage-Backed Securities

Pact will reduce bank’s fourth-quarter earnings by $1.5 billion after tax

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Thursday that it has reached a settlement worth more than $5 billion in a U.S. probe relating to securities backed by residential mortgages it sold in the mid-2000s.

Goldman said the agreement resolves actual and potential claims from the U.S. Department of Justice, the New York and Illinois Attorneys General, the National Credit Union Administration and the Federal Home Loan Banks of Chicago and Seattle.

Goldman was one of several banks targeted in investigations from federal and state officials into securities backed by residential mortgages, which plunged in value during the financial crisis.

Goldman will pay a $2.385 billion civil monetary penalty and a $875 million cash payment. It will also provide $1.8 billion in consumer relief in the form of forgiveness for underwater homeowners and distressed borrowers, among other things.

Several other banks, including J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp., reached settlements related to residential mortgage-backed securities between late 2013 and summer 2014.

In those cases, the government accused the banks of selling shoddy mortgage securities to investors without fully disclosing their quality.

The government has viewed the investigations as a way to hold the banks accountable for wrongdoing that led to the financial crisis. The banks have viewed them as a punishment for activities that they have since stopped and as a distraction from their efforts to ramp up lending and help aid economic growth.

Earlier Thursday in a separate case, Goldman agreed to pay $15 million to settle allegations that its securities lending violated federal regulations, the Securities and Exchange Commission said. Specifically, the SEC accused the broker-dealer of failing to adequately secure the stock needed to administer a short-selling trade.