S&P 500 Index – breakout out from a bull flag makes last week low at 2025 the suggested bottom of wave 4. Wave 5 target is 2160. Long base with a stop below 2025.00
Euro Stoxx 50 Index – while above 2893 minimum upside target is 3316 which is the upper boundary of the declining channel and an equivalent A,B,C correction from the low. Long base with a stop below 2893.00
Long Euro Stoxx / Short S&P as a hedge: The spread has completed a 5 wave move higher were wave 1 = wave 5. I think this has the potential to move a lot lower over time. Bottom of wave 4 is 0.5340 and is the ideal target.
US 10 Year Yield – German 10 Year Yield : I believe the current consolidation would end with an upside breakout. Long term target if correct it 2.37!
EEM US: the ETF has broken out from a bullish wedge pattern. The pattern has 2 targets. 1) based on the height of the wedge 37 and 2) the top of the wedge at 43.00. Long EEM through 34.5 calls for September (bought at 0.60 cents)
* ADIDAS-loses UCLA to Under Armour in biggest ever college deal ($280m)....U/C
* CHIP NAMES-Xilink +7% on bid spec, may see +ve reaction IFX,ASML,STM......+2%
* EDF-workers to strike for 24hrs on 25th May(RTE)........................-0.5%
* ELUX-main focus raise margins, not stressed to make aqns(CEO in DI).......+2%
* PEUGEOT-Govt considering sale of part or all of stake(Echos)..............U/C
* REPSOL-working on issue of at least €1bn of hybrids(Confidencial).........-1%
* SCANDI TOBACCO-Q1 org gth +1.9%, in line with expectations,guidance unch..+1%
* UNICREDIT-Ghizzoni stands down as CEO(expected). Cld become Chairman(FT)..+1%
* VW-says in court fully committed to settling but penalties excessive......+1%
Other news
* AB INBEV-EC approves SAB deal with conditions, the SAB adr closed +1%
* ENEL/TIT/METROWEB-lots of press, ENEL said to be selected by Metroweb(Reuters)
* STATOIL,LUNDIN-Govt wants them to remain rivals after recent stake hike.
* VIVENDI-said to win majority backing for hostile GAMELOFT bid, expected.
* OPERA-offeror said to get above 90% approval needed (89% y’day, so expected)
* FNAC-shareholders approve strategic partnership with VIVENDI.
* US Co’s reporting later: Tiffany, HP Inc
* ARM/IMG TECH-Xilinx Inc +6.7% after rumours of $15b bid(Streetinsider)...+1%
* BABCOCK-FY rev, EPS in-line, lifs divi',see further progress this year...+1%
* CIRCASSIA.Initiates grass allergy immunotherapy field study..............unch
* DIXONS CP-Q4 T/U LFL sales +5%(est +2.4%), sees FY in top half of guid'..+1%
* GREAT PORTLAND-FY NAV, profit, divi all rise in 'excellent FY no.s'......+1%
* HILTON FOOD-T/U(c5months)in-line,UK/Ireland strong,Denmark challenging..unch
* HSS GRP-Q1 T/U inline,Q2 started ahead,conditions remain competitive.....+1%
* INTERTEK-Q1 T/U in-line, solid organic growth performance................+1%
* M&S-FY beat, spec divi, strategic review incomplete,dissapointing......-3-5%
* MEDICLINIC-FY beats est's,bridge facility re-fi under way................+2%
* NAHL GRP-Update.
In line.Well positioned despite pot. regulation changes.1-2%
* NEW RIVER RETAIL-FY.Record profit. NAV 295p. AUM 1.1b(+30%).Shs +3% yday.+2%
* NMC HEALTH-CEO expects to do a deal in Saudi within 6 months.............+1%
* NOSTRUM O&G- Q1.OPEX reduced. production guidance maintained...........+2-3%
* PAYSAFE-Update.FY rev upgrade by 6-7%. EBITDA by 5%....................+5-7%
* PENNON GRP-FY.EPS @ 39.5p(est 36.7p) Div in line.SHS +2%yday on SVT.....unch
* POLYPIPE-Update.Rev +32.5% driven by acq's & strong UK.Reit's FY.........+2%
* ROYAL MAIL-OFCOM review. Appears broadly positive........................+1%
* SAB MILLER-Gets EU clearance.US said to investigate Distb'n incentive.s..+1%
* SAGE-Intuit post strong Q3,raises FY guidance..........................+1-2%
* SECRO-UJpdate. Sees Underlying Trading Profit Ahead of Expectations...+7-10%
* SHAFTESBURY-H1.#'s i/l.London robust,Brexit uncertainty,well positioned..+1%
* WIZZAIR-FY.Good #'s & growth,slighty cautious H2 o/l(high U/C yday)....+1/2%
* ZOOPLA-H1.EBITDA to be top end of exp's; 1H rev +130%, EPS +82%........+3-5%
*BAYER-Confident it can meet Monsanto deal demands,$122 f/value......U/C
CS:
Babcock M/P Numbers inline with market expectations
Serco +7-10% Sees underlying trading profit at £65m for FY vs £50m
Numis:
* ALLIANCE PHARMA unch; AGM, year has started well - revs of £30.5m for the first four months of 2016, which is in line with the Board's expectations.
JPM:
BABCOCK Inline, but org rev growth below forecast (9.7% for FY16). -2%
Monsanto opens door to talks on Bayer bidMonsanto is open to discussions on a deal with Germany’s Bayer, the US seeds giant said for the first time on Tuesday, even as it rejected a record-breaking $62bn bid from the aspirin-to-weed-killer conglomerate as “incomplete and financially inadequate”.Hugh Grant, Monsanto’s chairman and chief executive, said in a statement that the US company believed in the “substantial benefits” of a combination that would create a group spanning seeds to crop sprays.Monsanto’s price-focused rejection and willingness to engage with Bayer is the strongest indication to date that the US company is open to a deal on the right terms. This marks a significant shift in its thinking: until March it appeared completely opposed to being taken over by the German group.Mr Grant argued, however, that Bayer’s $122 a share proposal “significantly undervalues our company” and did not adequately address some of the “potential financing and regulatory execution risks related to the acquisition”.Monsanto shares were little changed by the statement, trading up 2.3 per cent to $108.60 at lunchtime in New York. Investors still see substantial hurdles to getting a deal agreed and cleared by antitrust regulators, and Mr Grant said Bayer had yet to fully address “potential financing and regulatory execution risks”.Bayer will now be under pressure to sweeten its offer, a move which risks further antagonising shareholders concerned that a Monsanto takeover will strain Bayer’s balance sheet.In explaining its move for Monsanto, Bayer said it risked missing out on the final wave of consolidation in the global agrochemicals sector if the deal failed.Werner Baumann, Bayer’s new chief executive, said the business of supplying seeds and crop chemicals to farmers was already dominated by six players who owned nearly two-thirds of the market. Consolidation would, he said, lead to even bigger and more powerful companies.“The ones that are left have to decide now what they want to be in this industry . . . because this [consolidation] is going with its own dynamic,” he told the Financial Times during a visit to London. “All the major players have to define their position in this last round of consolidation.”The stopover was part of a multi-city charm offensive by Bayer to win support from shareholders as it pursues a deal that now looks set to cost it more than $62bn including debt. The German company’s share price has fallen back by more than 10 per cent over the last week as investors balk at the potential cost of a deal.While Monsanto is pushing for a higher offer, Mr Baumann said that he has been in “constant dialogue” with Mr Grant since sending an offer letter on May 10.He said: “It’s actually very open and easy to get each other on the phone . . . I can only speak for myself, but you would sense if there was tension.”Mr Baumann met Mr Grant and Brett Begemann, Monsanto’s president, in St Louis in mid-April. He said the two executive teams were “fully aligned” on how to address changes in the industry.The agribusiness industry has been swept by takeover fever since Monsanto, a leader in genetically modified seeds, failed to buy its Swiss crop chemicals rival Syngenta. The move set off a chain reaction — ChemChina announced a $43bn deal for Syngenta while Dow Chemical and DuPont have agreed a $130bn mega merger.Bayer has faced sharp criticism by some investors over its move on Monsanto, amid concerns over the amount of debt it will have to raise to finance the deal. One London-based investor said: “It is a compelling strategic fit, but when it comes to capital allocation I think management have lost their minds.”This person said: “I don’t see the hurry. The last Monsanto results were hardly knockout. There is plenty of time for the corporate hubris [from the Syngenta/Dow/DuPont deals] to wind down.”Mr Baumann said many of his shareholders saw the strategic logic, but acknowledged that he had seen pushback from investors. Some shareholders focused on the healthcare sector have told the company that they did not want to be invested in a business that is cyclical like agriculture, he added.He said that in consumer healthcare, Bayer was in the still in the process of digesting some of the acquisitions it had made over the past few years. In pharmaceuticals, he said that the patent cliff for the company’s two most important drugs was still several years away.“What is important is that our pharma . . . has access to operating expenses, sufficient R&D, sufficient marketing and development to drive the business,” he said.