(Makor) Chart Book S&P, Euro Stoxx, US/German Yield spread and EEM US

S&P 500 Index – breakout out from a bull flag makes last week low at 2025 the suggested bottom of wave 4. Wave 5 target is 2160.  Long base with a stop below 2025.00

 

 

Euro Stoxx 50 Index – while above 2893 minimum upside target is 3316 which is the upper boundary of the declining channel and an equivalent A,B,C  correction from the low. Long base with a stop below 2893.00

 

 

Long Euro Stoxx / Short S&P as a hedge: The spread has completed a 5 wave move higher were wave 1 = wave 5. I think this has the potential to move a lot lower over time. Bottom of wave 4 is 0.5340 and is the ideal target.

 

 

US 10 Year Yield – German 10 Year Yield :  I believe the current consolidation would end with an upside breakout. Long term target if correct it 2.37!

 

 

EEM US: the ETF has broken out from a bullish wedge pattern. The pattern has 2 targets. 1) based on the height of the wedge 37 and 2) the top of the wedge at 43.00. Long EEM through 34.5 calls for September (bought at 0.60 cents)

 

 

 

(GS) European M&A and the CSPP

A new buyer on the block, a new tailwind for corporate refinancing

A new buyer on the block & the makings of an M&A revival
As the ECB’s corporate sector purchase program approaches, we assess
which companies have the most to gain from the further contraction in
European debt financing costs. We highlight firms with significant nearterm
debt refinancing needs as well as those that can take advantage of
lower cost financing to roll-up smaller competitors. With Bayer’s
unsolicited bid for Monsanto marking something of a revival in M&A
activity after several months of declining deal-making in Europe, we also
ask which companies are the most attractive targets if the lower cost of
financing prompted by the CSPP kicks off another wave of deals.

Refinancing tailwinds: Marking-to-market on lower yields
The announced participation of the ECB in corporate bond purchases has
already helped to push borrowing costs to near record low levels. But it is
important not to see the CSPP in isolation. It is the combined package of
negative rates, the depressed government yield curve, LTROs and now the
direct purchases of bonds which together offer corporates relief on
refinancing costs. See ECB clarifies details on the CSPP: Positive for our
compression vie (April 22, 2015) for more. We highlight companies likely to
take advantage of currently depressed yields to refinance maturing debt at
favorable rates. Assuming companies can refinance debt maturing in the
next 3 years at their current 10yr yield, FCA, TI, TEF & E.ON stand out.

Identifying the deal targets and the roll-up beneficiaries
Should incrementally lower debt costs encourage a sustained revival in
deal-making, our list of potential targets is captured in the Bloomberg
basket GSTRACQN. This basket contains companies where our analysts
apply >15% probability of acquisition & includes CL-Buy names: Vestas,
TDC, Ocado and Lundin Petroleum. The falling cost of credit also
increases the opportunity for industry roll-ups, particularly where
companies can issue credit to buy bank-financed peers. Here, Randstad

>>> Street Pre-Market indications

Investec
* ADIDAS-loses UCLA to Under Armour in biggest ever college deal ($280m)....U/C
* CHIP NAMES-Xilink +7% on bid spec, may see +ve reaction IFX,ASML,STM......+2%
* EDF-workers to strike for 24hrs on 25th May(RTE)........................-0.5%
* ELUX-main focus raise margins, not stressed to make aqns(CEO in DI).......+2%
* PEUGEOT-Govt considering sale of part or all of stake(Echos)..............U/C
* REPSOL-working on issue of at least €1bn of hybrids(Confidencial).........-1%
* SCANDI TOBACCO-Q1 org gth +1.9%, in line with expectations,guidance unch..+1%
* UNICREDIT-Ghizzoni stands down as CEO(expected). Cld become Chairman(FT)..+1%
* VW-says in court fully committed to settling but penalties excessive......+1%
Other news
* AB INBEV-EC approves SAB deal with conditions, the SAB adr closed +1%
* ENEL/TIT/METROWEB-lots of press, ENEL said to be selected by Metroweb(Reuters)
* STATOIL,LUNDIN-Govt wants them to remain rivals after recent stake hike.
* VIVENDI-said to win majority backing for hostile GAMELOFT bid, expected.
* OPERA-offeror said to get above 90% approval needed (89% y’day, so expected)
* FNAC-shareholders approve strategic partnership with VIVENDI.
* US Co’s reporting later: Tiffany, HP Inc

* ARM/IMG TECH-Xilinx Inc +6.7% after rumours of $15b bid(Streetinsider)...+1%
* BABCOCK-FY rev, EPS in-line, lifs divi',see further progress this year...+1%
* CIRCASSIA.Initiates grass allergy immunotherapy field study..............unch
* DIXONS CP-Q4 T/U LFL sales +5%(est +2.4%), sees FY in top half of guid'..+1%
* GREAT PORTLAND-FY NAV, profit, divi all rise in 'excellent FY no.s'......+1%
* HILTON FOOD-T/U(c5months)in-line,UK/Ireland strong,Denmark challenging..unch
* HSS GRP-Q1 T/U inline,Q2 started ahead,conditions remain competitive.....+1%
* INTERTEK-Q1 T/U in-line, solid organic growth performance................+1%
* M&S-FY beat, spec divi, strategic review incomplete,dissapointing......-3-5%
* MEDICLINIC-FY beats est's,bridge facility re-fi under way................+2%
* NAHL GRP-Update.
In line.Well positioned despite pot. regulation changes.1-2%
* NEW RIVER RETAIL-FY.Record profit. NAV 295p. AUM 1.1b(+30%).Shs +3% yday.+2%
* NMC HEALTH-CEO expects to do a deal in Saudi within 6 months.............+1%
* NOSTRUM O&G- Q1.OPEX reduced. production guidance maintained...........+2-3%
* PAYSAFE-Update.FY rev upgrade by 6-7%. EBITDA by 5%....................+5-7%
* PENNON GRP-FY.EPS @ 39.5p(est 36.7p) Div in line.SHS +2%yday on SVT.....unch
* POLYPIPE-Update.Rev +32.5% driven by acq's & strong UK.Reit's FY.........+2%
* ROYAL MAIL-OFCOM review. Appears broadly positive........................+1%
* SAB MILLER-Gets EU clearance.US said to investigate Distb'n incentive.s..+1%
* SAGE-Intuit post strong Q3,raises FY guidance..........................+1-2%
* SECRO-UJpdate. Sees Underlying Trading Profit Ahead of Expectations...+7-10%
* SHAFTESBURY-H1.#'s i/l.London robust,Brexit uncertainty,well positioned..+1%
* WIZZAIR-FY.Good #'s & growth,slighty cautious H2 o/l(high U/C yday)....+1/2%
* ZOOPLA-H1.EBITDA to be top end of exp's; 1H rev +130%, EPS +82%........+3-5%

Mainfirst:
*BAYER-Confident it can meet Monsanto deal demands,$122 f/value......U/C
*VIVENDI-Said to win majority backing for hostile Gameloft bid.......+0.5%
*NOVO NORDISK-Wins FDA backing for Xultophy(once daily diabetes).....+0.5%
*SCHOELLER BLECKMANN-Sales 46.8m(52),Ebit -16.9m(-12.4),o/l poor.....-5%
*NOVARTIS-Strong foundations for LTG,Entresto accelerate launch......+1%
*UNICREDIT-CEO Federico Ghizzoni to step down,no replacement.........+1%
*BERTRANDT-Q2 Rev €241.6m(243.5),OP €18.5m(18.4),Net €12m(12.5)......+1%
*ADIDAS-UA agrees 15-year UCLA footwear and apparel agreement........+0.5%
*ELECTROLUX-Focus to raise margins,not stressed on making acq's......+0.5%
*M&S-FY Rev 10.6b(10.4),PT 689.6m(673.9),Divi 11.9p(12.2)............-3%
*DIXONS-Q4 L-F-L +5%(+2.4),UK/Ireland 4%(2),Narrows FY Pretax........2%


CS:
Babcock M/P Numbers inline with market expectations
Bayer R Monsanto rejects Bayer bid
BHP Billiton +3% Positive headlines on the restart of Samarco + API data
Cellnex M/P Main candidate to enter the IBEX, decision on June 9th
Dixons +2% 4Q total like-for-like sales grow 5%, est. up 2.4%
Electrolux M/P CEO says "main focus is to raise margin"
Flug Zuerich -1% CS downgrade to UNDERPERFORM (Take profits)
Great Port -1% EPRA NAV at 847p, below ests at 869p
HSS Hire M/P Q1 trading inline, signs of softness in broader UK economy
Intertek -1-2% Organic growth slowing slightly
M&S -2-3% Margin weaker, Sees adverse impact on profit in short term
Miners +2% Copper +0.05%, Brent +0.60%, Iron Ore -2.4%, China +0.33%
Novartis M/P Investor day - highlights strong fondation for LT growth
Novo Nord M/P FDA voted 16-0 that Xultophy (diabetes) should be approved
Oils +1.5% API Crude inventories -5.14m barrels, Brent +0.60%
Paysafe +5-7% Guide to FY revs $950-$970m (cons at 910m)
Pennon +1-2% Numbers slightly ahead of market expectations
Serco +7-10% Sees underlying trading profit at £65m for FY vs £50m
Shaftesbury M/P H1 EPRA earnings 2% miss, NAV p 24p/2.8% from last update
Tesco -1% CS reiterate UNDERPERFORM (Large store performance worse)
Unicredit +1-2% CEO Federico Ghizzoni plans to step down
Valora +1-2% CS upgrade to OUTPERFORM (Margin potential in retail)
VAT M/P CS initiate with NEUTRAL (Valuation)
Vossloh -5% Announced 5:1 capital increase with subscription rights
Zoopla +3-5% H1 Revenues 12% ahead, Adjusted EBITDA 19% ahead


Numis:
* ALLIANCE PHARMA unch; AGM, year has started well - revs of £30.5m for the first four months of 2016, which is in line with the Board's expectations.
* ALLIED MINDS mkt; Successful Completion of ABLS II Feasibility Program. Not material.
* BABCOCK mkt; Numbers inline, confident statement, sees further progress this year.
* BIG YELLOW mkt; Numis note, TP unch at 905p, we go from ADD to HOLD. Note available on request.
* CIRCASSIA +1%; Commenced phase 3 trial of Grass allergy trial Cat Spire on track for Q2 results.
* DIXONS CARPHONE +2%; Q4 lfl sales a beat on estimates, pretax profit range narrowed towards top half of previous guidance.
* GREAT PORTLAND -0.5%; NAV vs est. 850, everything else in-line, small acquisition.
* HILTON FOODS +1%; Update in-line, strong progress across all geographic mkts, outlook unch.
* HSS HIRE -3-5%; Trading inline, margin pressure and competitive market conditions, we reduce 2016/17 EBITA f/casts by 7-8%.
* INTERTEK -2%; Organic growth dipped, outlook fine but been strong into numbers.
* MARKS & SPENCER -1%; Slight beat on analyst estimates, clothing still struggling, cautious outlook.
* MEDICLINIC +2%; Top and bottom line beat. Outlook upbeat. Strong statement.
* MOTHERCARE +1%; Numis note, B/150p, available on request.
* NMC +1%; CEO speaking in Dubai about making Saudi acquisition within next 3-6 months.
* NOSTRUM +1%; In-line, ops remain on schedule, revenues of US$73.9m were below our est and EBITDA of US$52m was ahead of our est.
* PAYSAFE +5%; TU, FY to be in range $950-70m vs $911m f/c.
* POLPIPE +2%; TU, excellent start to the year, FY to be in line.
* ROYAL MAIL unch; OFCOM sets out new requirements on RMG to help competition, but does not impose price controls on its wholesale or retail products.
* SERCO +3-5%; Sees underlying trading profit ahead, mainly driven by one offs so 2017 guidance is unch.
* SHAFTESBURY -1%; EPS slight miss 7.2 vs 7.5 est.
* SQS +1-2%; Inline trading, confident in expectations for FY, been weak into this, we u/g to BUY fm ADD.
* WIZZ AIR +2%; ? ? Strong results, top & bottom line growth, 21% passenger growth yoy, continued route expansion, confident o/look.
* ZOOPLA +3%; Strong set of numbers, FY EBITDA at top end of expectations.


JPM:
BABCOCK Inline, but org rev growth below forecast (9.7% for FY16). -2%
DIXONS Q4 LFL grow 5% vs 2.4%. Forecasts for FY top end of guidance. +3%
DEUTS POST JPM downgrade. -1%
G PORTLAND NAV inline, record leasing, strong start to this year. +1%
INTERTEK Outlook talks about solid revenue for the year. +2%
M&S Numbers beat, strategy fluffy, looks like talking FY down -5%
NOVOB Unanimous 16-0 vote from FDA to restore Xultophy approval. +1%
PENNON Numbers fraction ahead. unch
SERCO Unexpected update - positive (profit £65m vs e£50m). +3%
SHAFTESBURY NAV ahead, strong beat on EPS, business performance on track. +2%
WIZZ AIR Q1 beat, inline with estimate for FY, decent short base. +2%
ZOOPLA Strong set of numbers, record revs and adj EBITDA. +4%

>>> Bayer anticipates constructive discussions with Monsanto on takeover proposa

Bayer anticipates constructive discussions with Monsanto on takeover proposal

Bayer announced today that it looks forward to engaging in constructive discussions with Monsanto regarding the proposed transaction. Bayer reiterated that its USD 122 per share all-cash proposal provides full and certain value for Monsanto shareholders.

"We are pleased that Monsanto's Board shares our belief in the substantial benefits an integrated strategy could provide to growers and broader society," said Werner Baumann, CEO of Bayer AG. "We are confident that we can address any potential financing or regulatory matters related to the transaction. Bayer remains committed to working together to complete this mutually compelling transaction."

Bayer does not intend to make further comment at this time.

Company press release.

>>> What to look at today - 25th of May 2016

Dow+1.22% S&P+1.37% Nasdaq+2% Russell+2.15%
US Market closed higher, closed above its 50d MA helped by a +ve reading of April new home sales & a reversal in oil as the energy component erased a 0.9% ($46.64/bbl) loss, ending the pit session higher by 1.1% ($48.65/bbl). Fed Fund futures priced a 34% likehood of rate hike in june. MSFT+3.1% on Cowen upgrade. IBB+2.3%. technology (+2.1%), financials (+1.5%), health care (+1.5%) and consumer discretionary (+1.3%) leading the advance. Volume were below average with 867mil shares. US After Hours CSC +23%, HPE +10% following announcement of HPE's spinoff of its Enterprise Services business with CSC as well as earnings/guidance, MON +1.6% on Bayer Comments. Asian equity markets are up strongly, tracking US markets. There was another Japanese press report stating PM Abe will announce a delay to the sales tax hike after the conclusion of the Diet session on June 1st, deferring to call an election to the Lower House to accompany that of the Upper house of parliament. Govt spokesperson Suga again denied those reports, noting a decision will be made at appropriate time. After Greek lawmakers voted in favor of added fiscal reform measures in exchange for continued relief, Eurogroup announced it has reached a deal with Athens that offers €10.3B in several disbursements. IMF will also remain a part of the deal after some recent tensions with the Tsipras govt, and creditors declared that Greek program is now fully back on track.

Nikkei +1.66% Hang Seng +2.60% CSI +0.20% Shanghai +0.09%

Eur$1.1150 CNH 6.5634 CNY 6.5589 JPY 109.94 GBP 1.4612 CHF 0.9918 RUB$66.1908 WTI $49.27 (+1.36%)

S&P +0.20% EuroStoxx+0.60% Dax+0.70% SMI +0.30%

Macro :
- U.S. New-Home Sales Surge to Highest Level in Eight Years
- State Street’s Cantillon Sees Pensions Moving Into Alternatives
- France’s Sapin: Eurogroup Agrees to Deal With Greek Debt Burden
- U.K. Poll on EU Shows 41% Remain, 41% Leave: YouGov/Times

Keep an eye on :
- ABI BB : AB InBev Gets EU Nod for SABMiller Purchase After Brand Sell-Off
- ABI BB : U.S. Said to Investigate InBev Distribution Incentives: Reuters
- AKE FP : French Chemical Industry May Face EU50m/Day Losses From Strikes
- ABE SM : Abertis, Sacyr Weigh Buying Assets in Peru, Chile: Expansion
- AAPL US : Apple Said to Open Siri to Outside App Developers: Information
- BAYN GY : Monsanto Says Bayer Offer Inadequate; Open to Talks
- BAYN GY : Bayer Looks Forward to Engaging in Discussions With Monsanto -->MON US +1.5% in after Hours @ $111.50
- BDT GY : Bertrandt 2Q Sales Rise 4%, Profit After Tax Down 19% (Earlier)
- CAI AV : CA Immobilien 1Q Ebitda Rises 3.5% Y/y; Rental Income Up 15.7%
- CLS1 GY : Celesio Plans to Squeeze Out PCB Holders After Belmedis Deal
- CDA FP : Compagnie Des Alpes Wants External Investors, Les Echos Says
- CSGN VX : Credit Suisse Group AG Cut to A- from A by Fitch, Outlook Stable
- ECP FP : Europacorp FY Rev Falls to EU147m; Co. Forecasts FY Loss
- FNAC FP : Fnac Shareholders Approve Strategic Partnership With Vivendi
- FDPA FP : Eurosic to Analyze Which Fonciere De Paris Assets to Sell: Echos
- GLPG NA : Galapagos Says Phase 3 Testing of Filgotinib to Start in 3Q
- GPRO US : GoPro/Red Bull Deal Has ’Uncertain’ Economic Benefit: Stifel
- HFG LN : Hilton Food Says YTD Performance In Line With Expectations
- KUNN SW : Kuoni, Hugentobler Appeal Dismissed by Finma Committee
- NRS NO : Norway Royal Salmon Gets Approval From Govt on Triploid Fish
- NOVN VX : Novartis Sees Sustainable Growth, to Continue to Grow Dividend
- UG FP : France Considering Sale of Part Or All of PSA Stake: Echos
- ROG VX : Roche Says First FDA-Approved CMV Test for Stem Cell Recipients
- SAN FP : Medivation May 27 Exp. $65, $70 Calls Active; Shares at $61.90
- SAN FP : Sanofi Said to Unveil Candidates for Medivation Board: Reuters
- SBO AV : Schoeller-Bleckmann Posts 1Q Ebitda Loss, Downturn Not Over Yet
- TEN IM : Tenaris’s Confab Allegedly Paid Bribes for Petrobras Work --> TS US -0.35% in NY
- FP FP : Total Aims to Be 20% Low-Carbon by 2036, CEO Says: FT
- FP FP : France Says 20% of Gas Stations Partly Or Entirely Out of Fuel
- UCG IM : UniCredit CEO Said to Leave After Successor Is Chosen,
- VIV FP : Vivendi Said to Win Majority Backing for Hostile Gameloft Bid
- VOS GY : Vossloh to Offer 2.64m Shrs at EU48, Subscription Ratio of 5:1
- VOW3 GY : Volkswagen Group Partners With Gett, Makes $300m Investment
- VOW3 GY : VW Says It’s Fully Committed to Settling U.S. Lawsuit Claims

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 25th of May 2016

>>> Up
*AGEAS RAISED TO MARKET PERFORM AT KEEFE BRUYETTE
*COMPASS GROUP RAISED TO NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
*NATIONAL EXPRESS RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*SANTANDER RAISED TO BUY VS ADD AT ALPHAVALUE
*SEB SA RAISED TO BUY VS UNDER REVIEW AT KEPLER CHEUVREUX
*SODEXO RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
*VALORA RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT CREDIT SUISSE

>>> Down
*DEUTSCHE POST CUT TO NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN
*FLUGHAFEN ZUERICH CUT TO UNDERPERFORM FROM NEUTRAL AT CREDIT SUISSE
*GETINGE CUT TO REDUCE VS ADD AT ALPHAVALUE
*STAGECOACH GROUP CUT TO NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN
*TECHNOPOLIS CUT TO HOLD AT NORDEA


>>> PT Change


>>> Initiation
*VAT RATED NEW NEUTRAL AT CREDIT SUISSE; PT CHF60

>>> Call
>> Stock
* Santhera Pharmaceutical, Tecan, Rieter and Valora added to High Conviction Call at Credit Suisse

FT : Monsanto opens door to talks on Bayer bid

MON US Traded up to 111.5 in After Hours vs a closing price of 109.30

From: LAURENT CHEKROUN (MAKOR SECURITIES LO) At: May 24 2016 20:44:24
Subject: FT : Monsanto opens door to talks on Bayer bid
Monsanto opens door to talks on Bayer bid

Monsanto is open to discussions on a deal with Germany’s Bayer, the US seeds giant said for the first time on Tuesday, even as it rejected a record-breaking $62bn bid from the aspirin-to-weed-killer conglomerate as “incomplete and financially inadequate”.
Hugh Grant, Monsanto’s chairman and chief executive, said in a statement that the US company believed in the “substantial benefits” of a combination that would create a group spanning seeds to crop sprays.

Monsanto’s price-focused rejection and willingness to engage with Bayer is the strongest indication to date that the US company is open to a deal on the right terms. This marks a significant shift in its thinking: until March it appeared completely opposed to being taken over by the German group.
Mr Grant argued, however, that Bayer’s $122 a share proposal “significantly undervalues our company” and did not adequately address some of the “potential financing and regulatory execution risks related to the acquisition”.
Monsanto shares were little changed by the statement, trading up 2.3 per cent to $108.60 at lunchtime in New York. Investors still see substantial hurdles to getting a deal agreed and cleared by antitrust regulators, and Mr Grant said Bayer had yet to fully address “potential financing and regulatory execution risks”.
Bayer will now be under pressure to sweeten its offer, a move which risks further antagonising shareholders concerned that a Monsanto takeover will strain Bayer’s balance sheet.
In explaining its move for Monsanto, Bayer said it risked missing out on the final wave of consolidation in the global agrochemicals sector if the deal failed.

Werner Baumann, Bayer’s new chief executive, said the business of supplying seeds and crop chemicals to farmers was already dominated by six players who owned nearly two-thirds of the market. Consolidation would, he said, lead to even bigger and more powerful companies.
“The ones that are left have to decide now what they want to be in this industry . . . because this [consolidation] is going with its own dynamic,” he told the Financial Times during a visit to London. “All the major players have to define their position in this last round of consolidation.”
The stopover was part of a multi-city charm offensive by Bayer to win support from shareholders as it pursues a deal that now looks set to cost it more than $62bn including debt. The German company’s share price has fallen back by more than 10 per cent over the last week as investors balk at the potential cost of a deal.
While Monsanto is pushing for a higher offer, Mr Baumann said that he has been in “constant dialogue” with Mr Grant since sending an offer letter on May 10.

He said: “It’s actually very open and easy to get each other on the phone . . . I can only speak for myself, but you would sense if there was tension.”
Mr Baumann met Mr Grant and Brett Begemann, Monsanto’s president, in St Louis in mid-April. He said the two executive teams were “fully aligned” on how to address changes in the industry.
The agribusiness industry has been swept by takeover fever since Monsanto, a leader in genetically modified seeds, failed to buy its Swiss crop chemicals rival Syngenta. The move set off a chain reaction — ChemChina announced a $43bn deal for Syngenta while Dow Chemical and DuPont have agreed a $130bn mega merger.
Bayer has faced sharp criticism by some investors over its move on Monsanto, amid concerns over the amount of debt it will have to raise to finance the deal. One London-based investor said: “It is a compelling strategic fit, but when it comes to capital allocation I think management have lost their minds.”
This person said: “I don’t see the hurry. The last Monsanto results were hardly knockout. There is plenty of time for the corporate hubris [from the Syngenta/Dow/DuPont deals] to wind down.”

Mr Baumann said many of his shareholders saw the strategic logic, but acknowledged that he had seen pushback from investors. Some shareholders focused on the healthcare sector have told the company that they did not want to be invested in a business that is cyclical like agriculture, he added.
He said that in consumer healthcare, Bayer was in the still in the process of digesting some of the acquisitions it had made over the past few years. In pharmaceuticals, he said that the patent cliff for the company’s two most important drugs was still several years away.
“What is important is that our pharma . . . has access to operating expenses, sufficient R&D, sufficient marketing and development to drive the business,” he said.

(Les Echos) L'Etat s'interroge sur l'avenir de sa participation dans PSA

En quête d'argent, l'exécutif envisage de céder tout ou partie de ses 14 % dans le groupe automobile.
La famille Peugeot laisse la porte ouverte à une remontée au capital si l'occasion se présente.

Le changement de ton est net. En quelques jours, l'exécutif a mis sur la place publique un sujet sensible sur lequel il phosphore discrètement depuis quelques semaines : l'avenir de sa participation dans PSA. L'Agence des participations de l'Etat doit-elle conserver tout, partie ou rien du tout de ses 14 % dans le constructeur ?

Clairement, l'arrivée de l'Etat en 2014 au capital du constructeur automobile constitue aujourd'hui « une excellente opération patrimoniale », comme l'a rappelé mardi Emmanuel Macron, dans « Les Echos ». Pour le ministre de l'Economie, l'Etat n'a d'ailleurs « pas vocation à rester indéfiniment au capital ». Même si, dit-il, les pouvoirs publics ont « le souci de maintenir l'équilibre entre actionnaires » - c'est-à-dire entre l'Etat français, le groupe chinois Dongfeng et la famille Peugeot, qui détiennent chacun plus ou moins 14 % de PSA.

Quelques jours plus tôt, c'était Martin Vial, le patron de l'APE qui se félicitait du « redressement spectaculaire » de PSA, qui « se traduit aussi par la revalorisation importante de [leur] participation »... Bref, l'exécutif pèse et sous-pèse le pour et le contre, et ne s'en cache pas, au risque d'influencer l'évolution du cours de Bourse du titre PSA.

Il faut dire que l'équation s'avère complexe pour l'Etat. D'un côté, vendre la participation fait sens, vu le besoin actuel de financements. Près de 4 milliards d'euros seront nécessaires pour financer la recapitalisation d'Areva. Sans oublier les 3 milliards d'euros qui devront être débloqués pour l'augmentation de capital d'EDF. Deux opérations qui devraient avoir lieu fin 2016 ou début 2017.

Dans ce contexte, l'Etat cherche logiquement de l'argent. « On scrute l'ensemble des participations. Celle dans PSA a un triple avantage. D'abord, le groupe va mieux, il a sorti la tête de l'eau. Ensuite, il s'agit d'une participation récente, on n'est pas lié historiquement. Enfin, elle est très bien valorisée », souffle une source au sein de l'exécutif.
Enjeu hautement politique

De fait, une opération de cession pourrait être potentiellement fort juteuse pour Bercy. En 2014, l'Etat avait injecté 800 millions d'euros, via deux augmentations de capital réservées, pour mettre la main sur 14 % du capital. Sa part vaut désormais environ 1,5 milliard d'euros...

Tentante, la manoeuvre est également assez acrobatique. Les fragilités structurelles de PSA - un petit dans un monde de géants - restent d'actualité. Surtout, l'enjeu est hautement politique. En 2014, l'Etat avait investi non seulement pour soutenir un fleuron industriel en fâcheuse posture, mais aussi pour éviter au constructeur de tomber dans les bras du chinois Dongfeng.

Laisser aujourd'hui les Peugeot en tête à tête avec Dongfeng ? « Un an avant la présidentielle, le signal politique n'est pas évident. Cela pourrait donner l'impression qu'on abandonne l'entreprise », poursuit la même source. « En matière d'Etat actionnaire, la perception du public est déterminante », décrypte un banquier. D'autres scénarios, comme une cession d'une partie seulement de la participation - l'Etat peut conserver deux sièges au conseil tant qu'il ne descend pas sous les 10 % -, pourraient donc se révéler séduisants. Pour l'heure, aucune décision n'est prise - ni dans un sens, ni dans un autre.

Dans ce contexte, la position des deux autres actionnaires, Dongfeng et la famille Peugeot, comptera également.

Du côté de FFP et d'EPF, les deux holdings de la famille Peugeot, on « laisse la porte ouverte si l'occasion se présente », affirme une source proche du dossier. Reste une dernière inconnue, l'accord de « standstill » liant les différentes parties. Pour l'heure, les trois actionnaires sont engagés par une clause interdisant à l'un de remonter au capital sans l'accord des deux autres. A la baisse, cela ne pose en revanche aucun souci.