>>> What to look at today - 8th of March 2016

Dow+0.40% S&P+0.09% Nasdaq-0.19% Russell+1.13%
US market closed mixed as heavy tech sector retreat after few days of OP. Energy+2.4% with WTI+5.5% to $37.90/bbl, WTI crude has jumped 45.5% from its 52-week low of $26.05/bbl on February 11. materials sector (+1.2%) was a distant second while countercyclical health care (+0.8%), telecom services (+0.7%), and utilities (+0.6%) followed. Commodity-sensitive materials received a boost from an overnight surge in iron ore, but also outperformed thanks to large cap . The company climbed 2.4% on news that BASF is considering a counter bid for DuPont during its pending merger with Dow Chemical. large-cap components underperformed with Facebook and Alphabet diving 2.4% apiece. Amazon and Nike plunged a respective 2.2% and 3.3%. Separately, influential Netflix plunged 6.0% after ITG Research cast doubt on the company's domestic streaming estimates. Volume were in line with average 1.1b. US After Hours XNCR +18.8%, AMID +13.8%, URBN +11.3%, ACRX -9.0%, SHAK -7.7% following earnings/guidance ILMN-1.6% on management change. Asia markets are down across the board, led by Shanghai Composite which fell after 5 straight days of gains. Soft China trade numbers exacerbated the decline but sentiment turned to risk-off from the start of the session as investors took profits across asset classes. Both copper and oil are down over 1%, gold is up slightly, and USD/JPY fell as much as 70pips below 112.80 before a slight bounce late in the day. China trade balance hit a 10-month low in CNY terms at 209.5B V 341BE and an 11-month low in USD terms which were also well below consensus at $32.6B v $51.0Be. Japan economy is confirmed to have contracted for the 2nd time in 3 quarters. GDP declines in the final prints were revised to be smaller with mixed component trends, as Capex was stronger than expected and Consumption was slightly weaker .DuPont

Nikkei -0.76% Hang Seng -0.61% Shanghai-0.79%

Eur$1.1021 CNH 6.5086 CNY 6.5068 JPY 112.99 GBP 1.4239 CHF 0.9932 RUB$71.4692 WTI$37.47(-1.13%)

S&P -0.44% EuroStoxx-0.53% Dax-0.58% SMI-0.55%

Macro :
- China’s Feb. Exports Fall 20.6% Y/y in Yuan Terms
- China Feb. Retail Auto Sales Fall 3.7% on Year: PCA
- ECB Said to Watch Liquidity at Some Italy Banks Daily: Reuters
- Visium Said to Be Probed on 2013 Credit Fund by DOJ, SEC: DJ
- Goldman Says ‘Premature’ Rally in Commodities Is Unsustainable


Keep an eye on :
- PSI- 20 : C. Amorim, Montepio, Sonae Capital Join PSI-20 Index: Euronext
- AC FP : Hilton Europe 2016 Growth Seen ‘Close Second’ to Asia, CEO Says
- AIR FP : Airbus Helicopters Fined EU30,000 Over Employee Death: AFP
- AF FP : Air France-KLM Feb. Passenger Traffic Rises 6.3%
- ATC NA : Altice-Cablevision NYC Hearings Delayed Until April 11
- BLT LN : BHP Says Iron’s 19% Surge Doesn’t Change Outlook as China Shifts
- BIFF LN : Singapore’s Keppel Said to Be Among Bidders for Biffa: Sky
- BRBY LN : Burberry seeks help to fight off potential takeover bid - FT http://on.ft.com/21hrONa --> BURBY +8.7%, Daily mail saying coach & PE are interested.
- CO FP : Muddy Waters Sees ‘Additional Doubt’ on Casino France Recovery
- DB1 GY : Deutsche Boerse Says Artisan Fund’s Managers Bought 3.21% Stake
- DLG GY : Dialog Semiconductor 1Q Revenue Outlook Below Ests.; Names CFO
- EDF FP : France’s Royal: Fessenheim Plant Should Be Ordered Shut in 2016
- EDF FP : Dong and EDF’s sale of stakes in French wind portfolio slowed - Merger Market
- FCC SM : Slim Demands 20% Margin on FCC Spain Works Contracts: Expansion
- GFT FP : Gameloft to detail strategic plan on 22 March, FY results to be publish on 21st of March
- HUBN SW : Huber & Suhner 2015 Ebit Margin 7.4% vs 9.2%; Plans Div CHF1
- KCR1V FH : Konecranes' possible cancellation of merger with Terex may not be negative - Arvopaperi
- KPN NA : KPN CEO Expects 5G to Become Commercially Available Around 2020
- RWE GY : RWE Posts 2015 Results, Confirms 2016 Forecast
- SCHP FP : Seche Environnement FY Rev. EU 440m vs EU 433m
- SY1 GY : Symrise 2015 Sales In Line, Div. Misses BDVD; Confirms M/T Goals
- SYNN VX : ChemChina Publishes Prospectus for Syngenta Offer
- TEF SM : Telefonica to List Telxius Unit Before July 1, Expansion Reports
- VIV FP : Mediaset and Vivendi look to launch European pay TV platform via joint venture - Il Sole 24 Ore
- VOW3 GY : German Prosecutors Say 17 Probed in VW-Emission Scandal: Funke
- WEIR LN : Weir rumoured to be on GE Capital's radar - Daily Mail

>>> Konecranes' possible cancellation of merger with Terex may not be negative -

Konecranes' possible cancellation of merger with Terex may not be negative - Arvopaperi

The cancellation of the merger between the Finnish crane equipment supplier Konecranes and the Connecticut-based Terex may not be a negative for Konecranes, according to Arvopaperi.

The Finnish-language article said that there were some analysts that think it could be better for Konecranes if the merger was cancelled.

As reported, Konecranes announced in February it had temporarily suspended merger discussions with the Terex, but the merger had not collapsed,

The publication cited a fund manager Anders Oldenburg who had said that the risk level of Konecranes would be lower if the deal was cancelled. Large fusion requires 3-4 years from the management to focus.

In addition, the merger seems strange, the paper added, in that either companies had been the driving force behind it.

Oldenburg said that Konecranes’ position in the market would be excellent if it continued to operate alone without Terex. Konecranes’ strengths of service and technical know-how will not disappear if it does not merge with Terex.

Terex’s performance is rather weak and it seems to be weakening, which means Konecranes’ may not get the synergies it was looking for from the merger, according to Arvopaperi.

Handelsbanken had previously suggested the best case scenario for Konecranes in that Chinese company Zoomlion could fund the acquisition of Terex by selling its crane equipment business to Konecranes, the item noted. There has press reports claiming Terex has ceased negotiations with Konecranes due to a rival bid from Zoomlion.

Arvopaperi

>>> Burberry rumoured to be eyed by Coach and PE firms - Daily Mail

Burberry rumoured to be eyed by Coach and PE firms - report
Story
Burberry, the London-listed luxury fashion house, is rumoured to be eyed for takeover by New York City-based rival Coach, The Daily Mail reported. City gossip also suggested private-equity companies are interested in Burberry, whose share price has dropped around 28% since February 2015, the market report said.

Burberry declined to make any comment on the matter, the item reported.

Daily Mail

>>> Mediaset and Vivendi look to launch European pay TV platform via joint ventu

Mediaset and Vivendi look to launch European pay TV platform via joint venture - Il Sole 24 Ore

Mediaset and French media group Vivendi are in talks to set up a European pay TV platform, Italian language daily Il Sole 24 Ore reported. The unsourced report said that the agreement would both involve a share swap and a commercial agreement and would create a joint venture between Canal+ and Mediaset Premium, the pay TV arms of Vivendi and Mediaset respectively.

The report said that Chiomenti was providing legal advice to Mediaset and Carnelutti was acting as legal advisor to Vivendi.

Previous press reports have mentioned valuations of EUR 900m and EUR 1.1bn for Mediaset Premium, with Milano Finanza reporting that Mediaset has put an EUR 800m enterprise value on Mediaset Premium and indicated that the pay TV unit has EUR 100m in cash.

Il Sole 24 Ore

>>> Asian Update

Asian Market Update: China trade disappoints amid the largest drop in exports in nearly 7 years; Japan Q4 GDP confirmed back in contraction


***Economic Data***
- (CN) CHINA FEB TRADE BALANCE (CNY TERMS): 209.5B (10-month low) V 341BE; EXPORTS Y/Y: -20.6% V -11.3%E (biggest decline since May 2009); IMPORTS Y/Y: -8.0% V -11.7%E
- (JP) JAPAN Q4 FINAL GDP Q/Q: -0.3% V -0.4%E; ANNUALIZED GDP: -1.1% V -1.5%E
- (JP) JAPAN FEB CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 40.1 V 42.2E
- (JP) JAPAN JAN CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE: ¥521B V ¥716BE; ADJUSTED CURRENT ACCOUNT: ¥1.49T V ¥1.65TE; TRADE BALANCE: -¥411B V -¥530BE
- (JP) JAPAN FEB BANK LENDING (INCL TRUSTS) Y/Y: 2.2% V 2.3% PRIOR; BANK LENDING (EX- TRUSTS) Y/Y: 2.2% V 2.4%E
- (AU) AUSTRALIA JAN NAB BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 3 V 3 PRIOR; CONDITIONS: 8 V 5 PRIOR
- (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 114.8 v 111.3 prior
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q4 MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY Q/Q: -1.9% V +4.2% PRIOR; VOLUME Q/Q: 1.3% V 3.5% PRIOR
- (NZ) New Zealand Feb ANZ Truckometer Heavy M/M: +1.6% v -4.3% prior
- (TW) TAIWAN FEB CPI Y/Y: 2.4% (3-year high) V 0.8%E; WPI Y/Y: -4.8% V -4.5%E
- (UK) FEB BRC LFL SALES Y/Y: 0.1% V 0.5%E

***Index Snapshot (as of 05:00 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 -0.7%, S&P/ASX -0.5%, Kospi -0.8%, Shanghai Composite -1.7%, Hang Seng -0.8%, Mar S&P500 -0.3% at 1,994

***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Apr gold +0.2% at $1,267/oz, Apr crude oil -1.1% at $37.47/brl, May copper -1.5% at $2.24/lb
- JGB: (JP) Japan's MOF sells ¥726B in 0.8% 30-year bonds; Avg yield: 0.765% v 1.068% prior; Bid to cover: 4.21x (highest since May 2014) v 3.04x prior
- USD/CNY: (CN) PBOC SETS YUAN MID POINT AT 6.5041 V 6.5113 PRIOR (strongest setting since Jan 4th, 4th consecutive stronger setting)
- (CN) PBOC to inject CNY30B in 7-day reverse repos
- (AU) Australia sells A$100M in 1% 2018 Indexed notes; avg yield 0.4051%
- (NZ) Fonterra cuts FY15/16 forecast milk price to NZ$3.90/kg from NZ$4.15/kg; sees cash payout NZ$4.25-4.30/kgMS

***Market Focal Points/FX***
- Asia markets are down across the board, led by Shanghai Composite which fell after 5 straight days of gains. Soft China trade numbers exacerbated the decline but sentiment turned to risk-off from the start of the session as investors took profits across asset classes. Both copper and oil are down over 1%, gold is up slightly, and USD/JPY fell as much as 70pips below 112.80 before a slight bounce late in the day. In other USD majors, AUD/USD was also hard-hit by China data with a 50pip slide to 0.7420 while NZD/USD came in 40pips to 0.6760, adding to the decline in late US session after Fonterra cut its forecast payout for the 2nd time this year.

- China trade balance hit a 10-month low in CNY terms at 209.5B V 341BE and an 11-month low in USD terms which were also well below consensus at $32.6B v $51.0Be. CNY exports marked their biggest y/y decline since May 2009 at -20.6% V -11.3%E, while the closely watched imports component was down a less onerous -8.0% V -11.7%E. In USD terms, both missed consensus as exports fell for 8th straight month by -17.8% v -14.5%e and imports for the 16th month by -16.7% v -12.0%e. Shipments to US, EU, and Japan were all down about 20% y/y, also bigger declines than high-single - low-double digit declines seen last month. Today's trade numbers speak volumes to why Premier Li decided to skip 2016 projections for the trade component of the economy after already disappointing 2015. Comments from HSBC after the trade numbers suggested that recent hopes for a global rebound need to be tempered, as exports "got pummeled again in February, highlighting the downturn in global demand."

- Japan economy is confirmed to have contracted for the 2nd time in 3 quarters. GDP declines in the final prints were revised to be smaller with mixed component trends, as Capex was stronger than expected at 1.5% v 1.2%e and v 1.4% prelim, while Consumption was slightly weaker at -0.9% v -0.8%e v -0.8% prelim. Trade numbers were unrevised with a -0.9% drop in exports and -1.4% decline in imports q/q. Speaking after the release, Econ Min Ishihara maintained that there is no change to the view of Japan fundamentals as solid, noting weakness in consumption but also pointing to recovery in corporate profits and incomes. with Japan datapoints hardly showing any substantial improvement, there was some chatter that the cabinet will consider pushing back the timing of 2nd round of sales tax increase even further from the current Apr 2017 target, with cabinet officials expected to hold an economic meeting on Mar 16th. Also of note, PM Abe's cabinet has finally ratified TPP, sending its to Parliament for the anticipated start of negotiations early next month.

- Down under, Australia NAB business confidence was slightly lower from prior month. Resident NAB economist said all but two sectors of the economy - mining and wholesale - were positive. RBA Dep Gov Lowe helped to talk down AUD early in the session, stating it would be helpful to have slightly lower currency as global economy has lost momentum and data has been mixed. Ahead of Mar 10th RBNZ rate decision, one survey saw a vast majority of analysts anticipate a hold even with a slight majority calling for another 25bp cut before the end of Q2.

***Equities***
US equities / ADRs:
- URBN: Reports Q4 $0.61 v $0.56e, R$1.01B v $1.02Be; +12.3% afterhours
- THO: Reports prelim Q2 $0.86 adj v $0.85e, R$0.98B v $1.02Be; +5.0% afterhours
- PIR: Reports prelim Q4 $0.18-0.22 v $0.20e, Rev -1.3% y/y (implies R$537M v $523Me); SSS -0.7% (prior -2% to -4%); +1.7% afterhours
- SHAK: Reports Q4 $0.08 v $0.07e, R$51.1M v $50.6Me; -8.8% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer discretionary: Le Saunda Holdings 738.HK -1.8% (Q4 result); Phoenix Satellite Television Holdings 2008.HK +1.3% (guidance); Skyworth Digital 751.HK -2.0% (Feb result)
- Financials: Agile Property Holdings 3383.HK -1.0% (Feb result)
- Industrials: Geely Automobile Holdings 175.HK -3.8% (Feb result); Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine 042660.KR -9.8% (Q4 result); Broadspectrum BRS.AU -3.3% (guidance)
- Technology: MediaTek Inc 2454.TW -0.4% (Feb result)
- Materials: Fortescue Metals Group FMG.AU -9.4% (MOU with VALE)
- Energy: China Environmental Investment Holdings 260.HK -2.4% (guidance)

>>> US After Hours Summary: XNCR +18.8%, AMID +13.8%, URBN +11.3


After Hours Summary: XNCR +18.8%, AMID +13.8%, URBN +11.3%, ACRX -9.0%, SHAK -7.7% following earnings/guidance

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance:  XNCR +18.8%, AMID +13.8%, URBN +11.3%, THO +4.5%, NEFF +3.3%, TEDU +3.2%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news:  EYEG +7.9% (to acquire Jade Therapeutics; EYEG will pay Jade's liabilities and issued 765,728 shares of EYEG shares), 

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance:  ACRX -9.0%, SHAK -7.7%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: MTDR -3.1% (commenced public offering of 5 mln shares of its common stock), BAS -2.5% (reported selected operating data for the month of Feb 2016; co's well servicing rig count remained unchanged at 421), ILMN -1.6% (Chairman and CEO Jay Flatley will assume the role of Executive Chairman of the Board role on July 5), RVNC -1.5% (filed $300 mln mixed securities shelf offering, entered into an ATM Sales Agreement with Cowen to offer and sell shares of its common stock having aggregate gross proceeds of up to $75 mln).

>>> TWC/CHTR, CVC/ATC NA re Franchise Committee Hearing today

TWC/CHTR NYC franchise review had almost unanimous support. Bronx and Brooklyn Franchise review will be held over to 4/11 2:30 pm et hearing. Hold over was planned by committee but they did not issue a notice regarding the change.

https://mspwvw-dcscpfvp.nyc.gov/CROLPublicFacingWeb/RequestDetail/20160128101 ( original hearing notice)

 

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>>> US Close Dow+0.40% S&P+0.09% Nasdaq-0.19% Russell+1.13%

Closing Market Summary: Oil Rallies to Begin Week

The major averages began their week on a flat note as an oil rally was unable to bolster the broader market through the closing bell. Contributing factors to today's trade included a consolidation from the recent three-week winning streak, the underperformance of the heavyweight technology (-0.7%) and consumer discretionary (-0.5%) spaces, and anxiety regarding upcoming central bank policy meetings. The Nasdaq Composite (-0.2%) ended its day behind S&P 500 (+0.1) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.4%).

The benchmark index was unable to maintain the bulk of its advance despite a sustained rally in energy (+2.4%) and crude oil. The energy component surged 5.5% to $37.90/bbl, continuing its recent winning streak. On that note, WTI crude has jumped 45.5% from its 52-week low of $26.05/bbl on February 11.

The materials sector (+1.2%) was a distant second while countercyclical health care (+0.8%), telecom services (+0.7%), and utilities (+0.6%) followed. Conversely, heavily-weighted technology (-0.7%) and consumer discretionary (-0.5%) rounded out the leaderboard.

Commodity-sensitive materials received a boost from an overnight surge in iron ore, but also outperformed thanks to large cap DuPont (DD 64.71, +1.53). The company climbed 2.4% on news that BASF (BASFY 69.95, +0.66) is considering a counter bid for DuPont during its pending merger with Dow Chemical (DOW 49.76, -0.53).

In the technology sector, large-cap components underperformed with Facebook (FB 105.73, -2.66) and Alphabet (GOOGL 712.80, -17.42) diving 2.4% apiece. Meanwhile, the PHLX Semiconductor Index demonstrated relative strength as it ticked higher by 0.3%. The relative strength came despite noticeable weakness from constituents Micron Technology (MU 11.58, -0.30) and Broadcom (AVGO 143.51, -2.55) which surrendered 2.5% and 1.8%, respectively.

Meanwhile, large names also suffered in the consumer discretionary space (-0.5%). To that point, Amazon (AMZN 562.80, -12.34) and Nike (NKE 59.25, -2.01) plunged a respective 2.2% and 3.3%. Separately, influential Netflix (NFLX 95.49, -6.09) plunged 6.0% after ITG Research cast doubt on the company's domestic streaming estimates.

On the central bank front, slightly diverging opinions between Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer and Fed Governor Lael Brainard cast some light on next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Mr. Fischer contended that inflation is showing signs of acceleration in the U.S. while Ms. Brainard cautioned patience for raising rates in light of tightening financial conditions and softer inflation expectations.

The U.S. Dollar Index (97.10, -0.24) fell today as the euro and the yen gained some steam against dollar. The euro/dollar pair trades higher by 0.1% at 1.1014 while the dollar/yen pair slipped 0.3% to 113.41, but ended off its high (113.73).

Trading volume fell roughly in-line with the recent average as more than 1.10 billion shares changed hands on the NYSE floor.

Treasuries hit their lows during the height of the rally in equities and ended their day near those levels. The yield on the 10-yr note ended higher by three basis points at 1.91%.

Today's economic data included the January Consumer Credit report:

  • Total outstanding consumer credit increased by $10.5 billion in January. That was below the consensus estimate, which called for growth of $16.5 billion, but up from December when total outstanding consumer credit, which can be prone to sizable revisions, increased by a downwardly revised $6.4 billion (from $21.3 billion).
  • Total outstanding consumer credit of $3.54 trillion increased at an annual rate of 3.6% in January.
  • The growth in January was led by a pickup in nonrevolving credit, which increased by $11.6 billion. Revolving credit actually contracted by $1.1 billion.
  • In the preceding 12-month period leading up to January, consumer credit had risen by an average of $18.0 billion.

There is no economic data of note on tap for tomorrow. 

  • Nasdaq Composite -6.0% YTD
  • Russell 2000 -3.8% YTD
  • S&P 500 -2.1% YTD
  • Dow Jones -2.0% YTD