>>> Microsoft: Color on Quarter -->-5% premarket

Microsoft: Color on Quarter
  • MSFT -5% premarket.
  • RBC lowers tgt to $61 from 63. Weaker transactional rev and shift to annuity in Server Products/ Office drives a bigger than expected revision to our ests (already below Street). Growth in key assets of O365 and Azure remain strong, but cloud GM improvement took a pause due to mix. All up, they lower their EPS ests 3% and raise their capex assumptions, but still expect teens EPS growth in F2H17.
  • Wunderlich, quoting the musical genius Prince, "I never meant to cause you any sorrow." Investors are likely to be disappointed in the outlook as MSFT heads into its seasonally strongest quarter. The 3Q EPS miss was due to taxes and non operational, however, the co guided Q4 revenue and EPS below consensus and more importantly FY2017 consensus estimates are to aggressive and need to be reduced. They are reiterating their Hold rating and $55 price target on Microsoft (MSFT) following the co's 3Q results. They would look to get more constructive as fundamentals improve during the company's cloud transition from a perpetual/transactional business to a subscription business.
  • Stifel believes Microsoft continues to make steady progress with its cloud transition and they expect Office 365 and Azure to be solid top-line and bottom-line contributors for years to come. Accelerating Office 365/Azure growth will pressure gross margin expansion given the quickening mix shift, but they expect headwinds to dissipate over time as these businesses scale. Further, they expect continued op-ex discipline (management expects FY17 op-ex of flat-to-modestly higher, a positive remark in their view) and look for gross profit, operating profit, and FCF growth in coming quarters. Given this backdrop, along with shareholder-friendly activities (>$14B in annual dividends/buybacks; ~2.6% dividend yield), they remain buyers.
  • BMO lowers tgt to $57 from $58. MSFT has become a harder stock to like as margin impact from mix overwhelms revenue and operating cash flow growth. They are lowering FY2017 EPS estimate from $2.98 to $2.65, driven by both lower assumed revenues and margins. They think MSFT is inexpensive based on FCF but less so based on P/E. Given that we now project operating income to decline in FY2017, they believe that MSFT has moved into a patient long story. The growth in deferred revenue (28% y/y in the March quarter) and operating cash flow will help support the stock.

>>> Advanced Micro color on qtr

Advanced Micro color on qtr 
AMD is indicated for a much higher open this morning, +22.5% premarket (last print $3.21), near 14-month highs
  • Topeka Capital Mkts takes tgt on AMD to $3 from $2 and stays at Hold noting co reported 1Q16 revenue and EPS ahead of consensus and guided 2Q16 rev above consensus expectations driven by share gains across graphics and computing. The semi-custom segment remained seasonally impacted in 1Q16, but firm expects it to improve in 2Q16 as customer demand resumes its seasonal ramp. Firm is encouraged by newly announced IP deals and expect AMD to further monetize its technology. They are also encouraged by the prospect of operating profitability in 2H16 and positive free cash flow generation.
  • Mizuho stays at Neutral, $3 tgt on AMD noting co reported 1Q16 Rev/EPS above consensus with better PC computing and guided JunQ up 15% q/q, well above consensus with semi-custom, gaming and VR ramps. AMD also announced a new x86 CPU and SoC licensing deal with THATIC in China. NT, stronger semi-custom with gaming, VR and licensing deals and an ATMP cash infusion position AMD well and should remove some balance sheet concerns.
  • Craig Hallum upgraded AMD to Buy from Hold
  • Exane BNP Paribas upgraded to Neutral from Underperform
  • Jefferies took tgt to $4.50 from $3.50; Buy

>>> Caterpillar misses by $0.01, reports revs in-line; lowers FY16 EPS guidance,

Caterpillar misses by $0.01, reports revs in-line; lowers FY16 EPS guidance, above consensus, lowers revs in-line
  • Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.67 per share, ex-items, $0.01 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.68; revenues fell 25.5% year/year to $9.46 bln vs the $9.45 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
    • Co guided Q1 EPS $0.65-0.70 vs. $0.95 consensus on March 17
  • "While first-quarter results were about as we expected, sales and profit were well below the first quarter of 2015. Sales declined across the company with substantial reductions in construction, oil and gas, mining and rail. While many of the industries we serve are challenged, we remain focused on what we can control: the quality of our products, our market position, safety in our facilities and continued restructuring and cost reduction. In fact, our period costs and variable manufacturing costs in the quarter were nearly $500 million lower than the first quarter of 2015," said Caterpillar Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Doug Oberhelman.
  • The decrease was primarily due to lower sales volume. While sales for both new equipment and aftermarket parts declined in all segments, most of the decrease was for new equipment. The unfavorable impact of price realization and currency also contributed to the decline
  • Sales declined in all regions. Sales decreased in all segments.
  • Overall machine market position better i n Q1 of 2016 than this point last year; continues to improve in China. Focus remains on quality, safety and cost reduction
  • Co lowers EPSguidance for FY16 to $3.70, ex-items, vs. $3.60 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate, from $4.00; lowers FY16 revs guidance to $40-42 bln vs. $41.08 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate, down from $40-44 bln
  • The decline in the midpoint of the sales and revenues outlook range is a result of several factors that, while not individually large in the context of the outlook, collectively add up to about $1 billion
    • Those factors include lower transportation sales (rail, marine and the ending of production of on-highway vocational trucks), lowermining sales and weaker pricerealization than previously expected.

>>> American Airlines beats by $0.06, reports revs in-line; announces new $2 bln

American Airlines beats by $0.06, reports revs in-line; announces new $2 bln nuyback
  • Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $1.25 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.06 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $1.19; revenues fell 4.0% year/year to $9.44 bln vs the $9.44 bln Capital IQ Consensus, on a 3.6 percent increase in total available seat miles (ASMs).
  • Consolidated passenger revenue per ASM (PRASM) was 12.43 cents, down 7.5%. Consolidated passenger yield was 15.62 cents, down 7.1 percent year-over-year.
  • Co lowered PRASM to down 7-8% from down 6-8% on April 11
  • Pretax margin 12.9% vs. 12-14% guidance.
  • Company returned more than $1.6 billion to its stockholders through the payment of $61 million in quarterly dividends and the repurchase of $1.6 billion of common stock, or 39.3 million shares, at an average price of $39.76 per share.
  • The Company's Board of Directors has authorized a new $2.0 billion share repurchase program that will expire at the end of 2017. Since the Company began its capital return program, the Company's Board of Directors has authorized a total of $9.0 billion of share repurchases.
  • Co will issue guidance on the call at for Q2 on the call at 8:30.

>>> Kimberly-Clark beats by $0.02, misses on revs; reaffirms FY16 guidance (131

Kimberly-Clark beats by $0.02, misses on revs; reaffirms FY16 guidance
  • Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $1.53 per share, $0.02 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $1.51; revenues fell 4.6% year/year to $4.48 bln vs the $4.54 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
    • Performance benefited from organic sales growth, cost savings, input cost deflation and a lower adjusted effective tax rate. Comparisons were negatively impacted by unfavorable foreign currency exchange rate effects and increased marketing, research and general spending on a local currency basis. Adjusted earnings per share in both years exclude certain items described later in this news release.
  • Co reaffirms guidance for FY16, sees EPS of $5.95-6.15 vs. $6.15 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. Continues to expect our organic sales to grow 3 to 5 percent. Compared to the first quarter, KMB expects more benefits from targeted growth initiatives, product innovations and improved net realized revenue.

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
Gapping up: AMD +20.2%, ONTX +18%, SHLD +8.8%, CXRX +7.9%, CTMX+7.8%, UIS +5.7%, PACB +5.1%, VRX +4.9%, XON +4.7%, HBI +4.7%, EBIO+4.5%, PFPT +4.3%, MXIM +4.2%, SKX +3.9%, SWN +3.6%, NSC +3.5%, ERIC+1%

Gapping down: LAKE -15.6%, SAM -10%, BGG -6.7%, GOOG -5.4%, V -4.7%,MSFT -4.6%, SBUX -4%, MA -2.8%, BREW -2.4%, CBYL -2.3%, RIO -2.2%, TRN-1.5%, TRXC -1.3%, RDS.A -1.2%, SLB -1.2%, TOT -1.1%, BP -1.1%, HA -1.1%,ETFC -0.6%

WSJ : U.S. to Buy Material Used in Iran Nuclear Program

U.S. to Buy Material Used in Iran Nuclear Program

Deal to purchase heavy water from Tehran aims to protect broad accord reached in July

WASHINGTON—The Obama administration is buying 32 tons of heavy water, a key component in atomic-weapons development, from Iran in an effort to safeguard its landmark nuclear agreement with the country, according to senior American officials.

The Department of Energy’s impending purchase was driven by U.S. concerns that Iran doesn’t have the capacity yet to quickly reduce its stockpile of the material as required under the July nuclear deal, according to these officials.

Under the accord, Iran must keep its load of heavy water to below 130 tons during the initial years of the deal, and under 90 tons later. But U.S. officials said Iran has been struggling to find buyers for the material on the international market and that its stockpile is at risk of rising above that level.

The U.S. hopes its initial purchase will give other countries the confidence to purchase Iran’s heavy water in the coming years.

The deal, estimated at $8.6 million, is expected to be formally signed by U.S. and Iranian officials Friday morning in Vienna.

“The idea is: Okay, we tested it, it’s perfectly good heavy water. It meets spec. We’ll buy a little of this,” U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. “That will be a statement to the world: ‘You want to buy heavy water from Iran, you can buy heavy water from Iran. It’s been done. Even the United States did it.’”

Heavy water is a close chemical relative of water whose distinctive properties make it a critical component in the production of nuclear weapons and energy.

U.S. officials said the 32 tons of heavy water will be shipped by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran to the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee in the coming weeks. There, it will be used in a research facility that utilizes neutrons to study the makeup of a range of scientific materials.

Some of the heavy water also could be sold to private companies that use it for commercial applications, such as the production of semiconductors and fiber optic equipment.

Critics of the Obama administration’s nuclear agreement, including on Capitol Hill, have raised concerns about the heavy-water purchase.

The chairman of the House Foreign Relations Committee, Rep. Ed Royce (R., Calif.), wrote Mr. Moniz on April 18 to seek clarity on the terms of the deal. He specifically asked how the U.S. would pay for the heavy water and what guarantees the administration had that the funds wouldn’t be used by Tehran to fund its military or terrorist groups.

“What assurances can you provide that U.S. taxpayer funds that Iran receives through this purchase will not be used to fund Iran’s nuclear program…or Tehran’s destabilizing activities in Iraq, Syria Lebanon and elsewhere?” Mr. Royce wrote.

In the interview, Mr. Moniz said he saw the U.S. government making only one purchase of the heavy water, which can be used to stimulate fissile reactions inside nuclear reactors. But he said American companies could emerge as regular buyers of the material in the future.

“We’re not going to be their customer forever,” Mr. Moniz said. “Maybe some companies in the U.S. will be part of that customer base. They’ve got to figure it out. They [the Iranians] have to establish their presence on the international market if they’re going to keep producing [heavy water].”

The purchase agreement is the latest sign of rapprochement between Washington and Tehran after decades of hostilities.

As part of the nuclear accord, the U.S. and global powers lifted certain sanctions on Iran. And the U.S. Treasury in recent months granted licenses to American companies, including Boeing Co., to start returning to the Iranian market.

Secretary of State John Kerry is meeting his Iranian counterpart, Javad Zarif, on Friday in New York to discuss ways for Tehran to benefit more quickly from sanctions relief under the nuclear deal, according to U.S. officials. Iran has complained that it hasn’t been able to repatriate billions of dollars of oil revenues that had been frozen due to U.S. sanctions.

U.S. law still bans Iran from entering the American financial system or conducting business in dollars. The Obama administration is deliberating ways to help Iran conduct dollarized trade without allowing it to directly access the U.S. system, according to U.S. officials.

U.S. officials wouldn’t specify how the Department of Energy would pay Iran for the heavy water.

Iranian officials have hinted at the heavy-water sale to the U.S. and praised it as an early step in support of the country’s ambitions to export its nuclear-related and scientific products.

Tehran, in support of the agreement, already has sold low-enriched uranium to Russia and Kazakhstan.

“On the heavy water, we are among the very few developing countries which is able to produce its own heavy water and now we have entered the international market,” the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Ali Akbar Salehi, told Iranian state media this month. “We have been able to sell more than 30 tons of heavy water just recently and this has put us on par with other countries.”

Some nuclear experts said the U.S. move comes close to subsidizing Iran’s nuclear program in a bid to keep the agreement alive. They said Tehran’s production of heavy water will remain a concern, especially when the constraints on its nuclear program are lifted after 10 to 15 years as part of the agreement.

“We shouldn’t be paying them for something they shouldn’t be producing in the first place,” said David Albright, head of the Institute for Science and International Security, a Washington think tank.

The U.S. doesn’t produce heavy water domestically, and largely has been purchasing the material from Canada and other foreign countries in recent years. It imports around 75 tons of heavy water annually, according to Department of Energy officials.

Thom Mason, head of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, said one of his research facilities, called the Spallation Neutron Source, was being converted to use heavy water instead of light water. He said Iran emerged as a good supplier after plans to buy heavy water elsewhere fell through.

“Heavy water isn’t made in the U.S.,” Mr. Mason said in an interview. "It was fortuitous in terms of timing.”

The U.S.’s desire to constrain Iran’s heavy-water reactor in the city of Arak was one of the major issues in nearly two years of negotiations between global powers and Tehran, which culminated in last July’s agreement.

The Arak reactor was seen as largely designed to produce weapons-usable plutonium and had only limited commercial and scientific uses. Iran secretly built a heavy-water production plant in Arak in the early 2000s to feed the operations of the reactor.

Under the nuclear deal, Iran is converting the Arak facility, with China’s help, into a modified reactor that is seen as posing a much reduced nuclear-proliferation threat. Iran also is committed to limiting its production of heavy water for the reactor for 15 years.

“People have already forgotten that it wasn’t that many years ago that the big threat was considered to be the Arak reactor,” Mr. Moniz said. “We had to take care of that. That has gotten taken care of, in spades.”