Closing Market Summary: Averages Rebound Following FOMC MinutesThe stock market ended the midweek affair on a flat note as market participants walked back recently-adjusted rate hike expectations for the year. The change in thinking followed some dovish remarks from St. Louis Fed President Bullard (an FOMC voter) and less hawkish-than-feared minutes from the FOMC's July meeting. The S&P 500 (+0.2%) settled above its flat line, recovering from a 0.5% loss intraday.
The future path of interest rate normalization remained in focus as investors looked to substantiate yesterday's somewhat hawkish remarks from New York Fed President Dudley (an FOMC voter) and Atlanta Fed President Lockhart (not an FOMC voter). The two fed officials pushed forward rate hike expectations, signaling that at least one rate hike remains possible before the end of the year.
The prospect of a sooner-than-expected rate hike was enough to keep buying interest under wraps through the first half of trade. Vacillating oil prices, some strengthening in the dollar, and weakness in the heavily-weighted consumer discretionary (-0.3%) and technology (-0.3%) sectors also helped keep the broader market in check.
The market shifted gears shortly after midday as reports indicated that German Chancellor Merkel signaled that there would be some scope for tax cuts in the Germany's next legislative session. That headline seemed to stoke some risk appetite as investors eyed potential fiscal stimulus measures, which have been lacking in the midst of very aggressive monetary policy accommodations.
St. Louis Fed President Bullard (an FOMC voter) also helped elicit some buying interest after he suggested that the Fed may only be likely to raise rates one time between now and late 2018. The comments echoed remarks made by Mr. Bullard in the past, citing trend growth remaining under 2.0%.
The Fed minutes for July also helped to brush away lingering rate hike angst.
The minutes indicated that the Federal Open Market Committee was split on whether or not an interest rate hike would be appropriate in the coming months. The committee agreed that economic data and labor markets had improved, but the sustainability of hiring and inflation continuing to run below the two percent objective worried some members. Several members said they preferred to defer another increase in the fed funds rate until they were more confident that inflation was moving closer to two percent on a sustained basis.
The market's initial impression of the minutes skewed toward the dovish side of things, evidenced by a downturn in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 12.21, -0.43, -3.4%), a dip in the U.S. Dollar Index (94.78, -0.02, -0.02%), an uptick in Treasury prices across the curve, and an upturn in the S&P 500 utilities sector (+1.5%) after their release.
The S&P 500 finished the session near its high, finding technical support near the 2168 price level, which marked a rising 20-day moving average.
Seven sectors ended in the green with industrials (+0.3%), financials (+0.4%), and utilities (+1.4%) leading the advance. The heavily-weighted health care sector (+0.2%) performed in-line with the market, but got a boost from M&A speculation. Medivation (MDVN 66.48, +1.26) jumped 1.9% after the company confirmed that it received indications of interest from several parties. Biotechnology heavyweight Gilead Sciences (GILD 80.70, +1.45) climbed 1.8%, trimming its post-earnings loss to 8.9%.
In the consumer discretionary space (-0.2%), retail names underperformed as Lowe's (LOW 76.88, -4.60) and Target (TGT 70.63, -4.58) declined by 5.6% and 6.4%, respectively. The two came under pressure after disappointing investors with their quarterly results and/or guidance. Wal-Mart (WMT 72.93, +0.04) ended higher by 0.1% ahead of tomorrow morning's earnings report.
The technology sector (-0.1%) ended the day modestly lower as Dow component Cisco Systems (CSCO 30.72, -0.40) pressured the group. Cisco fell 1.3% after reports indicated that the company might be planning to layoff between 9,000 and 14,000 employees. The company is scheduled to report earnings after today's close. The high-beta chipmakers finished the day flat as Analog Devices (ADI 64.20, -0.68) weighed on the PHLX Semiconductor Index (UNCH). The stock fell 1.1% despite beating quarterly estimates and issuing in-line guidance for the fourth quarter.
Treasuries ended the day on a higher note, enjoying a decent bid across the complex. The yield on the 10-yr note slipped two basis points to 1.55%.
Today's participation was below the recent average as fewer than 765 million shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.
Today's economic data included the weekly MBA Mortgage Index:
- The MBA Mortgage Index showed that mortgage applications fell 4.0% in the week ending August 13 after a 7.1% increase in the prior week.
Tomorrow's economic data will include weekly initial claims (consensus 265k) and the Philadelphia Fed Survey for August (consensus 0.5), which will each be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Leading Indicators report for July (consensus 0.4%) will conclude the day's data, crossing the wires at 10:00 a.m. ET.
- Russell 2000 +8.1% YTD
- S&P 500 +6.8% YTD
- Dow Jones +6.6% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite +4.4% YTD
Cisco Systems beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS in-line, revs below consensus
--> -1.3% in after hours
Reports Q4 (Jul) earnings of $0.63 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.03 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.60; revenues fell 1.6% year/year to $12.64 bln vs the $12.57 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
* Revenue by geographic segment:
- Americas up 3%
- EMEA up 3%
- APJC down 2%
* Product Revenue
- Security at 16%
- Collaboration, Wireless and Switching product revenue increased by 6%, 5%, and 2%, respectively
- Service Provider Video, NGN Routing and Data Center product revenue decreased by 12%, 6%, and 1%, respectively
* Non-GAAP total gross margin and product gross margin were 64.6% and 63.9% (Guidance for 63-64%), respectively. The increase in non-GAAP product gross margin compared with 63.2% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2015 was primarily due to continued productivity improvement and to a lesser extent product mix, partially offset by pricing.
- Deferred Revenue was $16.5 billion, up 8% in total, with deferred product revenue up 8%, driven largely by subscription-based and software offerings, and deferred service revenue was up 9%.
- Product Backlog was approximately $4.6 billion at the end of fiscal 2016, an increase of 1% compared with the balance at the end of fiscal 2015 (excluding the SP Video CPE Business).
- Days Sales Outstanding in Accounts Receivable (DSO) was 42 days at the end of the fourth quarter of fiscal 2016, compared with 38 days at the end of the fourth quarter of fiscal 2015.
* Co issues guidance for Q1, sees EPS of 0.58-0.60, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.60 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees Q1 revs of -1-1% y/y (Approx $12.15-12.39 bln) vs. $12.49 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. Revenue normalized to exclude SP Video CPE Business for Q1 FY2016)
* Sees Q1 Gross Margin in the range of 63-64%.
Carl Icahn Turns Apocalyptic: "I Am More Hedged Than Ever, A Day Of Reckoning Is Coming"
We profiled Carl Icahn's notorious bearishness most recently two weeks ago when we showed that for the second quarter in a row, the billionaire's hedge fund, Icahn Enterprises had kept on its record short bias, manifesting in a net -149% market exposure.
Unlike other hedge fund managers, however, Icahn does not provide monthly letters explaining his mindset which is why we eagerly watched a expansive, 40 minute interview he gave to Bloomberg's Erik Shatzker, in which in addition to a detailed discussion of Trump and how the Republican presidential candidate would change the US economy, he shared some much needed insights into his gloomy vision of the market.
Below are some of the key excerpts from his discussion of the market:
Shatzker: Why is it that the stock market is where it is? That with valuations so high that I noticed in the letter that -- or at least in a statement that you made with your son, Bret, earlier this month, that you don't feel confident making any large investments?
ICAHN: Aabsolutely, Erik. I have hedges on, I'm more hedged than I ever was. I will tell you there's certainly good companies. [The market] is way overvalued at 20 times the S&P and I'll tell you why: a lot of it is a result of zero interest rates. It's just what I said. You have zero interest and a lot of buybacks. Money is not going into capital.
So think of it as a rich family that just decides "we're just going to have a lot of fun, we're going to sit around in the pool, and we'll keep printing up IOUs to the town, we've got a good name." You keep doing it until you go broke. And this is what's happening in our economy. Zero interest rates are building huge bubbles. You have retirees that saved a million bucks, half a million bucks.
I think the market is at literally very high levels because of zero interest rates, and if you really look at it, the dollar is pretty strong right now, which is going to hurt international earnings. The S&P, they live on international earnings. That's going to be hurt. There's going to be a day of reckoning here. I've seen it many times in my life. When things look good, they look great. You go into the sky. But that's when you have to really pull down and really stop buying. That being said, I'm not going to tell you it's going to happen tomorrow, next week, even next month, even next year possibly. But it's going to happen, and you have to change the direction of our economy. I can't say it plainer than that.
* * *
[T]housands of CEOs understand the problem. They say one day, a regulatory agency, EPA, waves its wand and we're bankrupt, or almost bankrupt. We're losing a fortune. Why the hell should I invest in more capital? Why should I invest in more machinery? Therefore, we can't compete, and therefore the middle class does not have manufacturing jobs and we now say, well, we're not a manufacturer, we're a service company
What could cause a crash:
Shatzker: You say, Carl, that a day of reckoning will come for the stock market. You can't say whether it's going to be this week, this month, even this year or next year. Let's talk about the factors that you believe would precipitate such a correction. What could cause stocks to fall?
ICAHN: Erik, I think I've been talking about it to you this whole interview. One of the things that's causing it to fall is happening right under your nose, that we have no capital spending. Capital spending is going way down. In a society like us, manufacturing is important. I don't care, sooner or later, you can't just keep tweeting to each other. You can't text each other.
We say we're a service economy, that's great, we're a service economy. What does that mean? That we text more to each other. Sooner or later, everybody is going to send a text to each other and say isn't that wonderful, so why should anybody work? Just sit there and text to each other or watch TV. So I am saying to you, this is what is happening as we speak. Capital spending is down, obviously. The last two years, I mean, it's just down four percent in the last quarter which is unheard of when you don't have a recession. OK. Productivity has not grown. In fact, it's the lowest growing it's ever been as far as growth goes. These are very important things in a capitalistic system. Unless you have a dictatorship, you're going to go the way of Cuba. Well, Cuba was a dictatorship but it still went that way. But then you're going to go the way of Venezuela, Argentina. You're going to be in a major problem.
He then turns to the economy and social tubulence, where he repeats "shocking" allegations made by Trump, namely that "unemployment numbers are not accurate":
You see GDP is not going up, I could give you a lot of reasons. But the most important is that the middle class worker is really, does not have good jobs. This unemployment numbers are not accurate in one way, that a lot of these guys have left the work force, and two, these jobs aren't paying that well.
So I am saying that the middle class - that is why you saw this uprising for Bernie Sanders and you see it for Trump and you see Brexit and you see what's going on in Italy. I think there's an undercurrent of great unrest in our global economies. This "one percent", people resent it, and they resent government for allowing it to happen.
Last, and certainly not least, is perhaps the key issue at the bottom of everything: the US Dollar as a reserve currency, which has permitted all of the above to happen:
Now, the thing that goes for the country as you pointed out is, we're a reserve currency. But I don't know how long you can depend on that. So I am just saying that sooner or later, there's going to be a massive problem, I think.
The full 40 minutes interview is below.
FOMC MInutes- Comments of note - {https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20160727.htm}
* Some of them believed that a convergence to a more moderate, sustainable pace of job gains would soon be necessary to prevent an unwanted increase in inflationary pressures. Other participants continued to judge that labor utilization remained below that consistent with the Committee's maximum-employment objective.
* Nevertheless, a few participants continued to caution about the risks to the inflation outlook from overshooting the natural rate of unemployment.
* Regarding the outlook for inflation, incoming information appeared to be broadly in line with most participants' earlier expectations that inflation would gradually rise to 2 percent over the medium term.
* In its latest report on potential risks to the stability of the U.S. financial system, the staff continued to judge that vulnerabilities overall remained at a moderate level and noted that the financial system had been resilient to the Brexit vote.
* Regarding the near-term outlook, participants generally agreed that the prompt recovery in financial markets following the Brexit vote and the pickup in job gains in June had alleviated two key uncertainties about the outlook that they had faced at the June meeting.
* Participants judged that the incoming information, on the whole, had lowered the downside risks to the near-term economic outlook. Most participants anticipated that economic growth would move up to a rate somewhat above its longer-run trend during the second half of 2016 and that the labor market would strengthen further. However, several noted that while the outlook for consumer spending remained positive, continued weakness in business investment and the possibility of slower improvement in the housing sector posed some downside risks to their forecasts.
* In addition to the situation in Europe, some participants continued to see a number of other downside risks to the medium-term economic and financial outlook from abroad, including weakness in the global economy more broadly, uncertainty about the outlook for China's foreign exchange policy, and the implications of China's run-up in debt to support its economy. A few others noted uncertainty about the strength of domestic economic activity going forward. However, some other participants indicated that they did not view the uncertainties attending the outlook to be unusually elevated and continued to see the risks to their economic forecasts as balanced.
* In addition, although near-term downside risks to the outlook had diminished over the intermeeting period, some participants stressed that the Committee needed to consider the constraints on the conduct of monetary policy associated with proximity to the effective lower bound on short-term interest rates. These participants concluded that the Committee should wait to take another step in removing accommodation until the data on economic activity provided a greater level of confidence that economic growth was strong enough to withstand a possible downward shock to demand.