Barron's : Deere Stock Is Breaking Out. Why It’s Time to Buy.

Deere Stock Is Breaking Out. Why It’s Time to Buy.
The company’s artificial-intelligence-enabled products and strong position in Brazil could boost shares. Now it just needs the farm cycle to cooperate.

Among corn farmers, “knee high by the Fourth of July” means that the crop will be a strong one. The same applies to Deere stock, whose rally is only getting started.

Deere has been enjoying a long planting season. From 2021 through 2024, the stock narrowly lagged behind the S&P 500, returning 13.5% a year to the index’s 13.6%. It wasn’t that anything was fundamentally wrong with the company: Deere was still the dominant agricultural equipment maker, with an artificial-intelligence kicker to boot.

The farm cycle hasn’t helped. U.S. farm income decreased to about $139 billion in 2024, down from a record $182 billion in 2022, as benchmark corn prices went from a peak of $8 per bushel to less than $4 over that span. As farmers suffered, Deere struggled to keep up.

But after a cold winter, investors have been warming up to shares of Deere. The stock has gained nearly 20% since the start of 2025 and shows no signs of slowing down. The fundamentals of the company still look remarkably strong, and AI will allow it to do what it’s always done—make more money while helping farmers make more money. But with the farm cycle beginning to turn—and strength in its Brazil operations to help offset weakness if it doesn’t—shares of Deere look ready for their next leg of outperformance.

“The market does not fully appreciate how good Deere’s competitive moat is,” says Melius Research analyst Rob Wertheimer, who has a Buy rating on the stock.

Few doubt the potential for AI to revolutionize farming—and for Deere to be at the forefront of that revolution. Precision farming, as AI-enabled agriculture is known, uses technology to get more with less. Deere’s tools, for instance, can help farmers place seeds more precisely, which helps improve crop yields, while using AI field diagnostics to know where fertilizers and pesticides are needed.

The potential is enormous. U.S. corn yield per acre has more than doubled over the past 40 years, and there is room to keep growing. The average U.S. acre yields about 180 bushels of corn, well below the record for dry land, which is around 450 bushels. If AI helps boost crop yield by 20% annually, it would be worth some $13 billion to U.S. farmers, based on average corn prices. Deere’s goal is to take a small cut of that extra profit through higher prices or subscription-like revenue for AI applications.

There is also an opportunity outside of the U.S. Brazil, the one country able to add agricultural production at scale, presents a massive opportunity, according to Raymond James analyst Tim Thein. Because of its climate, Brazil has the advantage of having two substantial crop seasons a year versus just one in Europe and the U.S.

Deere has taken advantage. Thein estimates that Deere’s market share has doubled over the past 15 years, helped by the company’s localized production and its Brazilian dealership network, which operates more than 275 stores in the region. “We see this region becoming a bigger revenue/earnings contributor to DE within the next few years,” writes Thein, who has an Outperform rating on Deere stock.

The combination of precision farming and Brazil means Deere earnings could grow earnings faster than the 15% average annual growth generated across the past few agricultural cycles. Now the cycle just needs to cooperate. During fallow times, farmers purchase less equipment, and that is exactly what has happened: Deere’s revenue is expected to hit $38.3 billion in fiscal year 2025, which ends in October, down 31% from $55.6 billion generated in fiscal year 2023.

Deere’s recent strength—it’s gained 35% over the past 12 months—suggests that investors are sniffing out a recovery, with U.S. grain inventories relatively low, a good indicator of higher, or stable, prices in the future. Wall Street sees recovery, too, with sales projected to grow by 7% in fiscal 2026 and 11% in 2027.

Not everyone sees a turn happening in the near future. While acknowledging Deere’s leadership position and management’s solid execution, Hightower Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Stephanie Link argues that tariffs, elevated inventories, and weak demand have pressured sales and earnings. She doesn’t own the stock.

Nor is Deere stock, at 25 times 12-month forward earnings, exactly cheap. Shares typically trade at 90% of the S&P 500’s multiple, which implies shares should be trading for about 21 times earnings right now. Valuations for cyclical companies, however, get tricky. Investors typically pay high multiples when they think earnings are near their trough, and lower multiples when they believe earnings are peaking.

Wall Street expects Deere’s earnings to be closer to $19 a share for fiscal year 2025, down from $35 in fiscal 2023. But they are expected to bounce back to $30 a share in earnings by fiscal year 2027 or 2028, and that would be enough to justify a $600 stock price over the coming 12 months, up almost 20% from Tuesday’s close of $503.47. Wertheimer, for his part, has a two-year target of $750 a share, up nearly 50% from recent levels.

The seeds are planted. Now it’s time to buy Deere stock.

The Technical View
John Deere is at a critical juncture near a very round $500. Recent trading hasn’t been strong—shares have been lower for five of the past eight weeks and haven’t recorded back-to-back weekly gains in 2 months—but they look to be digesting the strong rally from $400 well. This looks like a nice support zone here above $490. The stock could target $600 by the end of 2025. — Doug Busch

Barron's : Counterfeiters Are All Over Social Media. Shoppers, Hang On to Your W

Counterfeiters Are All Over Social Media. Shoppers, Hang On to Your Wallets.
Fake versions of everything from designer clothes to weight-loss drugs are being pitched on social-media sites.

The internet has made shopping easier—and more dangerous—than ever before.

A 31-year-old from Maryland ordered watches from Etsy last year to give to her fiancé, father, and father-in-law as gifts for her wedding. She thought the watches looked nice for the price. Too nice, as it turns out.

Between July and August, customs seized the watches after determining them to be designer knockoffs. The woman was out $650. It got worse. In September, the government revoked her Global Entry, a program that allows low-risk travelers to clear customs quickly, because of customs violations.

The Maryland woman isn’t alone. High-tech crooks are using artificial intelligence to make fraudulent listings nearly indistinguishable from the real deal on social-media platforms like Facebook, Reddit, TikTok, and WhatsApp. Although numbers are hard to come by, social-media sales of counterfeit goods are almost certainly in the millions. The RepladiesDesigner subreddit, which is a community for buyers of designer copies, has more than 200,000 members, while posts about unofficial suppliers of weight-loss drugs on GLP1forum, a website for people to discuss these medications, get hundreds of comments.

While the social-media platforms benefit from an increasing number of users, shoppers take the brunt of the consequences from unpoliced merchants. “There’s a level of unfairness there,” says Saleem Alhabash, professor of advertising and public relations at Michigan State University.

From fiscal 2020 to 2024, which ended in September, the volume of goods seized for intellectual property violations in the U.S. more than doubled, and the total manufacturer’s suggested retail price, or MSRP, of goods seized for IP violations jumped 95% in 2024 alone, according to Customs and Border Protection. Goods shipped from China and Hong Kong accounted for approximately 90% of the quantity seized. A 2023 Michigan State survey of global consumers by Alhabash and his colleagues found that more than two-thirds of respondents were deceived into buying counterfeits in the past year. Sixty-eight percent did so via Facebook.

Now that social media has integrated shopping with scrolling, counterfeiters have jumped from traditional marketplaces into users’ feeds. They buy advertising space or set up profiles like legitimate companies do, or post on dedicated forums devoted to specific items, like medications. Alternatively, users pool their experiences on dedicated Reddit forums, where they share tips on which vendors are reliable and which deliver high-quality fakes.

Artificial intelligence is making the problem worse. Generative AI allows counterfeiters to remove obvious details like misspellings and bad grammar that used to be reliable red flags, and emulate legitimate listings. Even more worrisome, high-quality AI-generated images can look indistinguishable from real photographs: “It’s nearly impossible for the consumer to figure it out,” says Alhabash.

Social media has provided counterfeiters with a direct line to shoppers. Swindlers initially used e-commerce sites like Amazon.com and eBay to peddle fake goods, but the two sites have since cracked down on counterfeits via lawsuits and user bans. That has led many sellers to social-media sites, which have prioritized policing other, more toxic content like child pornography.

Dedicated teams, like those that monitor for violence or sexual content, are one possibility to stop counterfeits, as is requiring ID verification for sellers. AI can also help, given that it can quickly spot suspicious user patterns. “With all the technology today, it wouldn’t be that hard to stop,” says Mark Weinstein, author and founder of ad-free social network MeWe.

Etsy, Reddit, and Meta Platforms—owner of Facebook and WhatsApp—didn’t return Barron’s request for comment.

To be sure, brands from Nike to Novo Nordisk have been quick to move against fakes; the former filed lawsuits against counterfeiters, and the latter publicly warned about the safety of faux-Ozempic weight-loss medicines.

The stakes are high. Even seemingly safe things like toys, apparel, and accessories can be dangerous: The American Apparel & Footwear Association found in a 2022 study that nearly 40% of knockoffs tested failed to comply with U.S. product safety standards.

Counterfeit airplane parts and air bags can have even more dire consequences. Fake parts have been linked to fatal car crashes in the past and were found in more than 100 engines after an investigation in 2023. Customs and Border Patrol warned that it saw an increase in counterfeit air bags last year, which can injure or kill victims in otherwise survivable crashes.

Yet social-media companies may feel little need to police merchants, experts say. “One of the issues is that all of our actual civil and criminal counterfeiting laws, at the federal and state level, only address the person or company manufacturing and selling [the goods]; they don’t really address any other facilitators” like online retailers and social-media platforms, says Kari Kammel, director of the Center for Anti-Counterfeiting and Product Protection at Michigan State University. The result is a voluntary hodgepodge of responses to counterfeiting that varies by platform, brand, and country.

Congress passed the 2023 Integrity, Notification, and Fairness in Online Retail Marketplaces for Consumers Act to increase transparency among online sellers, thereby more easily exposing counterfeiters. While it’s a step in the right direction, it isn’t legislation “with a lot of teeth, and not very specific to counterfeit postings,” says Kammel. “One glaring fact is that it has been enacted for almost two years now, and we’ve seen nothing. No action from the Federal Trade Commission; we haven’t seen any attorneys general bring cases under it.”

The law places the burden on consumers—not multibillion-dollar brands or tech giants—to flag suspicious products and sellers, even though there isn’t a clear reporting mechanism in place.

Another potential law, the Stopping Harmful Offers on Platforms by Screening Against Fakes in E-Commerce Act, hasn’t made it out of Congress. It has faced a lot of opposition, as it would shift more responsibility to the platforms to vet sellers and products.

“The notion of any kind of legislation that’s protective of consumers in the current Congress—really?” asks Richard Daynard, University Distinguished Professor of Law at Northeastern University.

Daynard is well versed in taking on corporate interests: He led the legal fight against Big Tobacco and more recently has argued that sports betting is a public-health risk. He says that tech companies’ nudging of consumers to shop no matter what in pursuit of profits isn’t that dissimilar: There’s the same potential for addiction, and the fact that tech has only recently allowed it to happen anytime, anywhere. “Whether it’s compulsive shopping or compulsive gambling, many people wouldn’t be doing it without all the prompts that are designed to activate your impulses. They’re jumping on people’s vulnerabilities,” Daynard says.

Kammel thinks that there may be some hope that recent court decisions could eventually provide greater support for anticounterfeiting measures in principle, even though they are more centered on free speech and the First Amendment.

The first decision is Anderson v. TikTok, in which the site’s algorithm showed a 10-year-old the dangerous “Blackout Challenge” that led to her death. In that case, the ruling could be interpreted as holding that when a site uses its algorithm to push out content that consumers aren’t even searching for, that is no longer protected third-party speech. Reading the ruling this way would mean that content pushed on users by the algorithm loses immunity, as it becomes first-party platform speech, she notes. The second is Moody v. NetChoice, which also addresses how much content moderation social-media sites must do, balanced with free speech. “If that holds, I think this opens up a whole new era,” Kammel says.

These cases haven’t been fully decided yet, however, as appellate courts have returned them to trial courts, meaning they can’t be used as precedent right now, even if they are ultimately settled in that way.

Counterfeits have existed as long as brands have, so it’s unlikely they can be wholly combated even with the cooperation of brands, governments, and tech companies.

Yet, at the end of the day, tech and social media has opened up a whole new way to shop—one that laws haven’t caught up with and that offers consumers bogus goods that simply aren’t at supermarkets or malls. Counterfeiters can now directly reach huge mass audiences, and some of the world’s most valuable companies are benefiting from these transactions without much in the way of legal guardrails.

Consumers are the ones left holding the (potentially fake) bag.

>>> Weekly Market Update : Benign data keeps markets quiet as White House mainta

Benign data keeps markets quiet as White House maintains pressure on trading partners and US Fed; Q2 was solid for big banks

Stock markets continued to push higher this week looking past lingering concerns about Fed independence and US trade policy. Instead investors focused on encouraging Q2 earnings reports and a slew of economic data that was not too hot, but reassuringly, not too cold. President Trump continued to threaten higher tariffs and slam the US Federal Reserve. Mid-week reports surfaced that Trump was on the verge of trying to oust Chairman Powell before he tempered those expectations by saying that it is not something he sees as “likely”, despite his frustration that US rate-setters are unwilling to cut rates immediately. Former Fed Governor Warsh made his case for regime change at the Federal Reserve, auditioning for the top job, while Governor Waller repeated he wants to see the Fed start cutting rates later this month. Conversely, The Fed's Kugler and Daly both indicated they’d prefer to see rates stay on hold for now.

June CPI mostly met expectations, with inflation picking up m/m as expected. Encouragingly, the core index rounded down to 0.2% in June rather than up to 0.3% as had been expected. Conversely, the y/y increase in core goods prices (excluding food and energy) moved up to a two-year high of 0.7% in June. That was followed by PPI which came in notably cooler than expected. Another uptick in goods prices was more than offset by declining services inflation. US retail sales and Philly Fed data easily topped estimates. Housing starts bounced back, industrial production was robust, and jobless claims declined. June import prices were substantially cooler than expected, offsetting some of the higher prices paid component in the July Philly Fed report. The University of Michigan confidence reading also surpassed market estimates and, Importantly, surveyed inflation expectations fell back to levels consistent with what was forecasted before Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement. The reassuring growth figures seemed to underpin sentiment throughout the week, while inflation remained corralled, albeit still above the Fed’s 2% target with signs of higher tariffs starting to filter through economy.

The 30-year US Treasury yield moved back up to 5% while 10-year breakeven inflation rates hit 20-week highs before prices firmed and yields drifted lower late in the week. The US dollar enjoyed a modest resurgence, taking the Dollar Index to a 1-month high. Oil and gold prices were mostly steady. Bitcoin and etherium held near fresh all-time highs after Congress passed the Genius Act and appears headed for additional crypto reforms. The S&P and NASDAQ each made fresh all-time highs with the AI stack remaining the driving force behind the indices gains. For the week, the S&P gained 0.6%, the DJIA slipped 0.1%, and the NASDAQ added 1.5%.

Bank earnings were at the center of corporate news this week, as most of Wall Street chimed in with solid results. JP Morgan beat expectations handily and noted that while investment banking activity had slowed in Q2, it has gained some momentum as market sentiment has improved. Goldman also beat expectations by a wide margin, saying that its M&A advisory backlog is signaling a strong deal pipeline. Bank of America numbers came about in line for the quarter as executives commented that “consumers remained resilient, with healthy spending and asset quality, and commercial borrower utilization rates rose.” Wells Fargo also had a solid Q2, but trimmed its FY25 net interest income guidance. Other notable quarterly results came from United Airlines, GE Aerospace, and the 3M Company. United confirmed the strong trends announced by Delta last week, with United calling Q3 a positive inflection point for both supply and demand. GE beat and raised guidance, maintaining a robust commercial services outlook through its three year guidance window. 3M also topped analyst estimate and raised its guidance, but shares were still dragged lower as management highlighted the expected drag from tariffs. Outside of earnings news, Nvidia shares extended a powerful rally as the company resumed sales of its not-top-of-the-line H20 GPUs to China, despite the objections of some China hawks in Congress. In M&A, reports started circulating that Union Pacific is exploring a deal for rival Norfolk Southern amid earlier rumors that consolidation is likely in the rail sector.




MON 07-14
(CN) CHINA JUN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 6.8% V 5.6%E
(CN) CHINA Q2 GDP Q/Q: 1.1% V 0.9%E; Y/Y: 5.2% V 5.1%E
(EU) ECB said to discuss more negative scenario next week than one seen in June following US Pres Trump's latest tariff threat; ECB still seen holding rates at July 24th meeting so as not to act on threat alone; Rate cut discussion remains set back to Sept 2025 – press
(EU) EU Commission to launch its plan for the next seven-year budget - FT cites proposal
(US) Fed Chair Powell sends letter to Senate Banking Chair Scott and Sen Warren regarding building renovations at the Fed - X post
(US) Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcast sees June US CPI Y/Y (to be out tomorrow) to re-accelerate to 2.64% v 2.4% for May US CPI Y/Y; Sees July CPI Y/Y (to be out next month) to again accelerate to 2.70% (prior saw drop to 2.58%)
(US) White House NEC Dir Hassett said to be gaining ground in competition to be next Fed Chair; Selection process remains fluid - Washington Post
(US) White House NEC Dir Hassett: President Trump could possibly fire Fed chair Powell over questions about the renovation of Fed facilities (update from Sunday)
AA Disclosed San Ciprián Smelter Resumes Restart Following National Power Outage; Sees smelter-level net -$110M to -$90M (-$0.42 to -$0.35/shr) due to a delay in the completion of the restart and related revenue from 2025 into 2026
ANTHROPIC.IPO Wins $200M DOD contract to prototype AI for national security
FAST Reports June net sales $701.3M, +15.3% y/y v +4.3% prior
META CEO: Will invest hundreds of billions of dollars into compute to build Superintelligence; On track to bring a 1GW+ supercluster online; Focused on building the most elite and talent-dense team in the industry
NVDA *Announces filing applications to sell the NVIDIA H20 GPU again; To resume H20 sales to China; announces fully compliant GPU for China - blog post
TVGN Tevogen.AI Builds Alpha Version of PredicTcell Model with Microsoft and Databricks; Observes Drastic Time Reduction in Target Analysis Translating to Potential Savings of Billions in Drug Development Costs
VOLCARB.SE Sees Q2 one-off noncash impairment charge of SEK11.4B (~$1.19B); Due to import tariffs, currently unable to sell Volvo ES90 profitably in US, while ES90 margins are also under pressure in Europe for same reason
XAI.IPO Launches Grok for Government and announces contract with US Dept of Defense; No terms disclosed - X post

TUES 07-15
(CA) CANADA JUN CPI M/M: 0.1% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 1.9% V 1.9%E
(DE) GERMANY JULY ZEW CURRENT SITUATION SURVEY: -59.5 V -66.0E
(FR) French Conservative Marine Le Pen: If French PM Bayrou does not revise public spending plan, we will seek to remove him
(US) Fed Discount Minutes: Many directors observed that consumers and businesses remained cautious about their spending and future plans in light of this uncertainty (update)
(US) Fed's Bowman (voter, hawk): Doesn't comment on economic outlook or monetary policy in speech text; More work is to be done on financial inclusion; Innovation in financial sector plays important role
(US) Fed's Logan (non-voter): It's possible that softer inflation and a weakening labor market will call for rate cuts 'fairly soon'; If the Fed misjudges and does not cut rates soon enough, it could cut rates further to get employment back on track
(US) JULY EMPIRE MANUFACTURING: +5.5 V -9.2E (above all estimates); Input prices increases picked up; Business activity picked up slightly in New York State in July, representing the first increase in several months
(US) JUN CPI M/M: 0.3% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 2.7% V 2.6%E (2nd straight re-acceleration in annual pace and highest since Feb)
(US) Treasury Sec Bessent: Need to focus on inflation trends; I have access to CPI number but have not looked at it because coming on TV today; Expect to meet China counterparts in a few weeks; We're in a good place on China now; Not going to rush deals because of arbitrary deadlines - TV interview
(US) Pres Trump: Pharma tariffs will begin probably at the end of July; Initial tariffs on pharmaceuticals will be low
(US) US Pres Trump: Working on 5 to 6 trade deals with 2 to 3 deals expected by Aug 1st; May veer from trade letters 'On occasion;' Vietnam's deal is well set; Trade letters for smaller countries will be released soon, all of which will likely have blanket tariffs of over 10% (>100 nations)
(US) Pres Trump reportedly asked Ukraine Pres Zelenskiy if they could hit Moscow during the July 4th's call if Trump provided weapons capable of doing so; Trump has privately encouraged Ukraine to step up deep strikes on Russian territory - FT
600276.CN Hengrui Pharma and Kailera Therapeutics Report Positive Topline Data from Phase 3 Obesity Trial in China of Dual GLP-1/GIP Receptor Agonist HRS9531; Mean weight loss of 19.2% at 6 mg with no plateau in 48-week Phase 3 trial
ACI Reports Q1 $0.55 v $0.53e, Rev $24.9B v $24.7Be; Raises SSS outlook
BK Reports Q2 $1.94 adj v $1.74e, Adj Rev $5.03B v $4.86Be;
BLK Reports Q2 $12.05 v $10.78e, Rev $5.42B v $5.41Be; Notes early days in its next phase of even stronger growth
ERICB.SE Reports Q2 (SEK) 1.37 v 1.15e, Adj EBIT 7.05B v 6.08Be, Rev 56.1B v 59.4Be; Expect RAN market to remain broadly stable
ERJ CEO: 50% US tariff (on Brazil) would add cost of ~$9M per aircraft, may cause order cancellations and deferred deliveries; Tariff impact could reach BRL20B ($3.58B) by 2030; Would be able to maintain guidance under just 10% US tariff
JBHT TTN Summary of 17:00ET Earnings Call: Narrows FY25 Capex $550-650M (prior $500M-$700M); ~85 known fleet losses slipped into July; Early peak-season surcharges rolled out amid trade-policy uncertainty and varied customer strategies (pull-fowards, origin shifts), leveraging pre-funded capacity and high service scores to absorb demand swings.
JBHT Reports Q2 $1.31 v $1.34e, Rev $2.93B v $2.94Be
JPM Raises FY25 NII ex-markets ~$92B, adj expense outlook ~$95.5B v ~$91.5B y/y (prior $90B, $95B) - earnings slides
JPM Reports Q2 $4.96 adj v $4.51e, Managed Rev $45.7B v $43.8Be; CEO Dimon notes high fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices; IB activity started slow but gained momentum as market sentiment improve
OPEC monthly oil report (MOMR): OPEC+ Jun production -11K bpd vs plan; Kazakhstan overproduced by 479K bpd while Russia and Iraq underproduced slightly
WFC Reports Q2 $1.60 v $1.41e, Rev $20.8B v $20.7Be

WEDS 07-16
(CN) China Premier Li Qiang chairs State Council meeting; Reviewed report on EV market; Will deepen implementation of special initiatives aimed at increasing consumption – CCTV
(EU) European Commission proposes €1.98T draft budget for 2028-2034 - press (previously seen at €1.2-1.7T)
(UK) JUN CPI M/M: 0.3% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 3.6% V 3.4%E (highest annual pace since Jan 2024)
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending July12th: 496.2K total units, +2.6% y/y (update)
(US) Fed's Bostic (non-voter for 2025 & 2026): Tries not to focus on news reports about the Fed, but on things that actually matter; We may be at an inflection point for inflation; We're seeing signs that inflation pressures are up
(US) DOE Announces Pilot Program to Build Advanced U.S. Nuclear Fuel Lines and End Foreign Dependence (update)
(US) Fed's Williams (voter): A lower dollar will likely add inflationary pressure; Reluctant to support lowering interest rates ahead of next meeting
(US) JUN PPI FINAL DEMAND M/M: 0.0% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 2.3% V 2.5%E (lowest annual pace since Sept 2024)
(US) JUN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 0.3% V 0.1%E
(US) Pres Trump reportedly asked House Republicans if he should fire Fed Chair Powell; Reps in the room 'voiced approval' and several said Trump indicated he will do it – CBS
(US) US Pres Trump: Denies drafting a letter to fire Powell, but did talk about the concept with GOP lawmakers; Highly unlikely to fire Powell, unless fraud is uncovered with the Fed buildings' renovation
(US) White House Officials: Trump will likely fire Fed Chair Powell soon – press
000660.KR Hearing Goldman Sachs Cuts 000660.KR to Neutral from Buy, price target: KRW310,000
ASML.NL Reports Q2 Net €2.29B v €2.01Be, Rev €7.69B v €7.37Be; Narrows outlook; "Still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage"
BAC TTN Summary Earnings Call: We saw improving market conditions during the quarter and our research team continues to predict No recession, about 1.5% GDP growth at year-end and No Fed rate cuts until next year
BAC Reports Q2 $0.89 v $0.86e, Rev $26.5B v $26.6Be; “Consumers remained resilient, with healthy spending and asset quality, and commercial borrower utilization rates rose"
GS Reports Q2 $10.91 v $9.43e, Rev $14.6B v $13.5Be; Economy and markets are generally responding positively to the evolving policy environment
JNJ Reports Q2 $2.77 v $2.66e, Rev $23.7B v $22.8Be; Raises outlook citing operational performance and favorable FX
PLD Reports Q2 Core FFO (ex NPI) $1.47 v $1.41e, Rev $2.18B v $2.00Be
PNC Guides Q3 average loans +1% q/q, NII +3% q/q, Rev +2-3% q/q (implies $5.77-5.83B v $5.80Be) - earnings slides
PNC Reports Q2 $3.85 v $3.56e, Rev $5.66B v $5.62Be
UAL Reports Q2 $3.87 adj v $3.86e, Rev $15.2B v $15.4Be; Sees Q3 positive inflection in both supply and demand

THRS 07-17
(BR) Brazil Pres Lula: Brazil is facing "unacceptable blackmail" instead of a US response on tariffs; Will not take orders from a gringo - financial press
(BR) Brazil Pres Lula: Open to negotiating whatever is necessary with US; Will (regulate) and collect taxes from big US tech companies - CNN interview
(CN) US Dept of Commerce issues prelim ruling on China graphite dumping; Plans to impose 93.5% tariff on battery material from China
(EU) EU said to offer US matching cuts in auto tariffs, abandoning more complex German system of a 'netting mechanism' - FT
(EU) EU reportedly prepares list of potential tariffs on US services as well as export control tools if trade talks fail; The list would come on top of a proposal for retaliation against €72B of annual US imports that EU countries are already discussing and which includes tariffs on Boeing aircraft, cars and bourbon – FT
(JP) JAPAN JUN NATIONAL CPI Y/Y: 3.3% V 3.3%E; CPI (EX-FRESH FOOD)/ Y/Y: 3.3% V 3.4%E
(JP) Japan and EU said to plan '2+2' economic talks and will discuss joint rare earth procurement as part of those talks – Nikkei
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Lowers Q2 GDP estimate from 2.6% to 2.4%
(US) BOFA INSTITUTE: IN THE WEEK ENDING JUL 12TH TOTAL CARD SPENDING +4.5% Y/Y V +0.2% ON AVERAGE IN JUNE; Relative to last week, online retail saw the biggest rise in y/y spending growth
(US) Fed's Bostic (non-voter for 2025 & 2026): Economic outlook remains highly uncertain; Tariff adjustment could take months - WSJ interview
(US) Former Fed Gov Kevin Warsh: We are at transformational moment in US economic history because of good policy; Worried Fed might not see we are at front end of a productivity boom and too focused on old models, policies, and thinking around inflation - CNBC
(US) Fed’s Waller: Fed should cut interest rates by 25bps in July's meeting; An interest rate cut in July gives the Fed space to hold rates for a few meetings
(US) JUN ADVANCE RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.6% V 0.1%E; RETAIL SALES (EX-AUTO) M/M: 0.5% V 0.3%E
(US) JUN IMPORT PRICE INDEX M/M: 0.1% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: -0.2% V 0.4%E
(US) JULY PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK: 15.9 V -1.0E (highest since Feb); Prices Paid: 58.8 v 41.4 prior
2330.TW TTN Full Summary of 02:00ET Earnings Call: Data-center/server and sovereign AI orders “stronger than three months ago”; Tariff uncertainties and short-term China rebate programs may affect consumer/IoT segments; In 2026, TSMC may see higher growth in Revenue than in growth in Capex
2330.TW *RAISES FY25 REV INCREASE +30% Y/Y IN USD TERMS (implies ~$117B v $117.0Be) (prior up mid-20%s y/y, implied $111.6-114.3B)
2330.TW *CFO: GUIDES Q3 REV $31.8-33.0B V $30.7BE; NT$ FX FLUCTUATIONS TO HAVE SIZABLE IMPACT - EARNINGS CALL
2330.TW Reports Q2 (NT$) Net 398.3B v 376.4Be, Op 463.4B v 286.6B y/y, Rev 933.8B v 933.8B prelim
9880.HK Reportedly UBTech's new generation humanoid robot Walker S2 supports battery swap (without human intervention or shutdown, the world's first of its kind). and can autonomously complete battery replacement in 3 minutes – press
ABBN.CH Reports Q2 Net $1.15B v $1.12Be (v $0.91B y/y), Op EBITA $1.71B v $1.66Be, Rev $8.90B v $8.70Be; Trading environment remained largely unchanged, with similar uncertainty linked to potential impacts from trade tariffs
CFG Guides Q3 NII +3-4% q/q, net charge offs down modestly q/q; 2H25 environment shaping up to be constructive - earnings slides
ELV Reports Q2 $8.84 v $9.20e, Rev $49.4B v $48.2Be; Cuts outlook to reflect elevated medical cost trends in ACA and slower rate alignment in Medicaid
ESSITY-A.SE CEO: Sees negative growth in North America following a decline in demand; We can see that Americans are cutting back on restaurant visits and staying in hotels less
GE Reports Q2 $1.66 v $1.43e, Rev $10.2B v $9.66Be; Raises outlook for 2025 and 2028; To boost shareholder returns
LCID Lucid, Nuro, and Uber Partner on Next-Generation Autonomous Robotaxi Program; Uber aims to deploy 20K or more Lucid vehicles equipped with the Nuro Driver over six years (update)
MAN Reports Q2 $0.78 v $0.69e, Rev $4.52B v $4.35Be; Beginning to see positive signs of stabilization in the US and parts of Europe
OPENAI.IPO Introduces ChatGPT agent: bridging research and action; Will soon be able to shop online and make PowerPoints for users
PEP Reports Q2 Core $2.12 v $2.03e, Rev $22.7B v $22.4Be
Reportedly fintech and crypto firms are waging battle to stop banks from charging fees for customer data - The Information
TRV Reports Q2 $6.51 adj v $3.55e, Rev $12.1B v $12.2Be
UHR.CH Reports H1 (CHF) Op 68M v 204M y/y Rev 3.06B v 3.20Be; Notes decline in sales is exclusively attributable to China (including Hong Kong SAR and Macau SAR)
VOLCARB.SE Reports Q2 (SEK) adj EBIT 2.90B v 3.07Be, Rev 93.5B v 88.3Be; Notes turnaround plan is fully on track; "Demand remains under pressure from the macroeconomic environment, tariff-related uncertainties and tougher competition"
WAL Reports Q2 $2.07 v $2.04e, Net Rev $846M v $848Me

FRI 07-18
(EU) US Pres Trump said to advocate for 15-20% minimum tariff on EU imports; Declines to lower 25% sectoral sanctions on autos - FT
(RU) UK and EU lower Russian oil price cap from $60/bbl to $47.60/bbl (as expected)
(US) Two US lawmakers said to introduce bill to help finance construction of tiny homes – WSJ
(US) California Gov Newsom proposes easing process to obtain oil & gas drilling permits in that state - press
(US) JULY PRELIMINARY UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 61.8 V 61.5E; Inflation expectations fall back to pre-Apr 2nd levels
(US) JUN HOUSING STARTS: 1.321M V 1.300ME (bounce from 5-year low); BUILDING PERMITS: 1.397M V 1.387ME
MMM Reports Q2 $2.16 v $2.01e, Adj Rev $6.16B v $6.12Be; Raises EPS guidance including tariff impact
SCHW Reports Q2 $1.14 v $1.09e, Rev $5.85B v $5.70Be
HBAN Reports Q2 $0.38 v $0.38e, Rev $1.95B v $1.98Be
RF Reports Q2 $0.60 adj v $0.56e, Adj Rev $1.91B v $1.85Be
CVX Successful in Arbitration case against Exxon over Guyana oil assets; Clears way for Hess Chevron deal to go forward – CNBC
NVDA House China Committee Chair Moolenaar (R-MI) disagrees with decision to allow restarting sales of H20 chips to China - letter to Commerce Sec Lutnick

Betaville : Allfunds Group PLC, the Euronext-listed fund distribution company, c

UNCOOKED ALERT: Allfunds Group PLC said to ... - Part 4

Allfunds Group PLC, the Euronext-listed fund distribution company, continues to be at the centre of takeover rumours.

Last week Betaville Intelligence reported that Allfunds had come back under the spotlight amid a fresh round of takeover rumours.

People following the situation have heard further speculation a mystery private equity firm is circling Allfunds and talks may have advanced.

However, the identity of the company interested in Allfunds is unclear.

The company has reportedly been subject to takeover interest in the past. Last year, for example, Betaville Intelligence reported in November 2024 that private equity firms EQT and CVC Capital were circling Allfunds while smaller buy out firm Motive Partners was also reportedly interested in the company.

Bankers from Citigroup and Goldman Sachs were also reported to be working with Allfunds on 'strategic options' in 2023.

Other companies that have looked at Allfunds in the past include German exchange operator Deutsche Borse.

Readers should be aware that Allfunds shares have risen around 16pc over the last month and 5pc in the last five days, so some of the takeover speculation may already be priced into the stock already.

To be clear, the above story is UNCOOKED. In case you don't remember I have pasted the definition of UNCOOKED below:

UNCOOKED: Market gossip as Betaville receives it. This scuttlebutt has just come in and hasn't been checked with all of Betaville's well-informed RARE sources let alone formal journalistic channels (public relations executives, bankers etc). The rumour might be total codswallop, nonsense or rubbish - but then again there may be something in it, so it's worth airing on Betaville.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 18th of July 2025 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Abbott Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $145
* Fagron PT Raised to 27 euros from 21 euros at Oddo BHF
* GE Aerospace PT Raised to $300 from $275 at TD Cowen
* Grieg Seafood Raised to Buy at Norne Securities; PT 90 kroner
* Sonova Raised to Outperform at Bernstein; PT 278 Swiss francs (+)
* Tele2 Raised to Buy at Nordea
* Tele2 Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 165 kronor
* TSMC ADRs PT Raised to $275 from $240 at Barclays
* Vestas Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 161 kroner
* WDP Raised to Buy at Berenberg

>>> Down
* Alcoa Cut to Hold at CFRA; PT $32
* Almirall Cut to Hold at Bestinver; PT 11 euros
* Atresmedia Cut to Hold at Bestinver; PT 5.35 euros
* Commerzbank Cut to Hold at M.M. Warburg; PT 29.20 euros (+)
* Fiskars Cut to Sell at Inderes; PT 12 euros
* Fraport Cut to Hold at M.M. Warburg (+)
* Hexagon Purus Cut to Sell at Arctic Securities; PT 2 kroner
* Lundin Gold Cut to Hold at Desjardins; PT C$70
* Ontex Cut to Accumulate at KBC Securities; PT 8 euros (+)
* Ringkjoebing Landbobank Cut to Sell at ABG; PT 1,145 kroner
* Sesa Cut to Neutral at Mediobanca SpA; PT 95 euros
* SMA Solar Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT 16 euros
* Standard Chartered Cut to Hold at Shore Capital; PT 1,270 pence
* Vincit Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 1.70 euros
* Volvo Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 290 kronor

>>> Initiation
* Alvotech GDRs Rated New Buy at SEB Equities; PT 125 kronor
* Snowflake Rated New Overweight at Stephens; PT $261

>>> Call
* ACS Rises as Jefferies Raises PT on Data Centers Demand
* Barclays Cut at Citi, European Banks to Underperform US Peers
* SMA Solar Downgraded at Jefferies on Continued Weak Demand
* Vestas Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan on Wind-Power Growth
* Strategists See Stoxx Europe 600 Rising 2.3% By Year End: Survey