TheChek News Flow

Stock markets continued to push higher this week looking past lingering concerns about Fed independence and US trade policy. Instead investors focused on encouraging Q2 earnings reports and a slew of economic data that was not too hot, but reassuringly, not too cold. President Trump continued to threaten higher tariffs and slam the US Federal Reserve. Mid-week reports surfaced that Trump was on the verge of trying to oust Chairman Powell before he tempered those expectations by saying that it is not something he sees as “likely”, despite his frustration that US rate-setters are unwilling to cut rates immediately. Former Fed Governor Warsh made his case for regime change at the Federal Reserve, auditioning for the top job, while Governor Waller repeated he wants to see the Fed start cutting rates later this month. Conversely, The Fed's Kugler and Daly both indicated they’d prefer to see rates stay on hold for now.

June CPI mostly met expectations, with inflation picking up m/m as expected. Encouragingly, the core index rounded down to 0.2% in June rather than up to 0.3% as had been expected. Conversely, the y/y increase in core goods prices (excluding food and energy) moved up to a two-year high of 0.7% in June. That was followed by PPI which came in notably cooler than expected. Another uptick in goods prices was more than offset by declining services inflation. US retail sales and Philly Fed data easily topped estimates. Housing starts bounced back, industrial production was robust, and jobless claims declined. June import prices were substantially cooler than expected, offsetting some of the higher prices paid component in the July Philly Fed report. The University of Michigan confidence reading also surpassed market estimates and, Importantly, surveyed inflation expectations fell back to levels consistent with what was forecasted before Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement. The reassuring growth figures seemed to underpin sentiment throughout the week, while inflation remained corralled, albeit still above the Fed’s 2% target with signs of higher tariffs starting to filter through economy.

The 30-year US Treasury yield moved back up to 5% while 10-year breakeven inflation rates hit 20-week highs before prices firmed and yields drifted lower late in the week. The US dollar enjoyed a modest resurgence, taking the Dollar Index to a 1-month high. Oil and gold prices were mostly steady. Bitcoin and etherium held near fresh all-time highs after Congress passed the Genius Act and appears headed for additional crypto reforms. The S&P and NASDAQ each made fresh all-time highs with the AI stack remaining the driving force behind the indices gains. For the week, the S&P gained 0.6%, the DJIA slipped 0.1%, and the NASDAQ added 1.5%.

Bank earnings were at the center of corporate news this week, as most of Wall Street chimed in with solid results. JP Morgan beat expectations handily and noted that while investment banking activity had slowed in Q2, it has gained some momentum as market sentiment has improved. Goldman also beat expectations by a wide margin, saying that its M&A advisory backlog is signaling a strong deal pipeline. Bank of America numbers came about in line for the quarter as executives commented that “consumers remained resilient, with healthy spending and asset quality, and commercial borrower utilization rates rose.” Wells Fargo also had a solid Q2, but trimmed its FY25 net interest income guidance. Other notable quarterly results came from United Airlines, GE Aerospace, and the 3M Company. United confirmed the strong trends announced by Delta last week, with United calling Q3 a positive inflection point for both supply and demand. GE beat and raised guidance, maintaining a robust commercial services outlook through its three year guidance window. 3M also topped analyst estimate and raised its guidance, but shares were still dragged lower as management highlighted the expected drag from tariffs. Outside of earnings news, Nvidia shares extended a powerful rally as the company resumed sales of its not-top-of-the-line H20 GPUs to China, despite the objections of some China hawks in Congress. In M&A, reports started circulating that Union Pacific is exploring a deal for rival Norfolk Southern amid earlier rumors that consolidation is likely in the rail sector.

MON 07-14

(CN) CHINA JUN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 6.8% V 5.6%E

(CN) CHINA Q2 GDP Q/Q: 1.1% V 0.9%E; Y/Y: 5.2% V 5.1%E

(EU) ECB said to discuss more negative scenario next week than one seen in June following US Pres Trump's latest tariff threat; ECB still seen holding rates at July 24th meeting so as not to act on threat alone; Rate cut discussion remains set back to Sept 2025 – press

(EU) EU Commission to launch its plan for the next seven-year budget - FT cites proposal

(US) Fed Chair Powell sends letter to Senate Banking Chair Scott and Sen Warren regarding building renovations at the Fed - X post

(US) Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcast sees June US CPI Y/Y (to be out tomorrow) to re-accelerate to 2.64% v 2.4% for May US CPI Y/Y; Sees July CPI Y/Y (to be out next month) to again accelerate to 2.70% (prior saw drop to 2.58%)

(US) White House NEC Dir Hassett said to be gaining ground in competition to be next Fed Chair; Selection process remains fluid - Washington Post

(US) White House NEC Dir Hassett: President Trump could possibly fire Fed chair Powell over questions about the renovation of Fed facilities (update from Sunday)

AA Disclosed San Ciprián Smelter Resumes Restart Following National Power Outage; Sees smelter-level net -$110M to -$90M (-$0.42 to -$0.35/shr) due to a delay in the completion of the restart and related revenue from 2025 into 2026

ANTHROPIC.IPO Wins $200M DOD contract to prototype AI for national security

FAST Reports June net sales $701.3M, +15.3% y/y v +4.3% prior

META CEO: Will invest hundreds of billions of dollars into compute to build Superintelligence; On track to bring a 1GW+ supercluster online; Focused on building the most elite and talent-dense team in the industry

NVDA *Announces filing applications to sell the NVIDIA H20 GPU again; To resume H20 sales to China; announces fully compliant GPU for China - blog post

TVGN Tevogen.AI Builds Alpha Version of PredicTcell Model with Microsoft and Databricks; Observes Drastic Time Reduction in Target Analysis Translating to Potential Savings of Billions in Drug Development Costs

VOLCARB.SE Sees Q2 one-off noncash impairment charge of SEK11.4B (~$1.19B); Due to import tariffs, currently unable to sell Volvo ES90 profitably in US, while ES90 margins are also under pressure in Europe for same reason

XAI.IPO Launches Grok for Government and announces contract with US Dept of Defense; No terms disclosed - X post

TUES 07-15

(CA) CANADA JUN CPI M/M: 0.1% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 1.9% V 1.9%E

(DE) GERMANY JULY ZEW CURRENT SITUATION SURVEY: -59.5 V -66.0E

(FR) French Conservative Marine Le Pen: If French PM Bayrou does not revise public spending plan, we will seek to remove him

(US) Fed Discount Minutes: Many directors observed that consumers and businesses remained cautious about their spending and future plans in light of this uncertainty (update)

(US) Fed's Bowman (voter, hawk): Doesn't comment on economic outlook or monetary policy in speech text; More work is to be done on financial inclusion; Innovation in financial sector plays important role

(US) Fed's Logan (non-voter): It's possible that softer inflation and a weakening labor market will call for rate cuts 'fairly soon'; If the Fed misjudges and does not cut rates soon enough, it could cut rates further to get employment back on track

(US) JULY EMPIRE MANUFACTURING: +5.5 V -9.2E (above all estimates); Input prices increases picked up; Business activity picked up slightly in New York State in July, representing the first increase in several months

(US) JUN CPI M/M: 0.3% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 2.7% V 2.6%E (2nd straight re-acceleration in annual pace and highest since Feb)

(US) Treasury Sec Bessent: Need to focus on inflation trends; I have access to CPI number but have not looked at it because coming on TV today; Expect to meet China counterparts in a few weeks; We're in a good place on China now; Not going to rush deals because of arbitrary deadlines - TV interview

(US) Pres Trump: Pharma tariffs will begin probably at the end of July; Initial tariffs on pharmaceuticals will be low

(US) US Pres Trump: Working on 5 to 6 trade deals with 2 to 3 deals expected by Aug 1st; May veer from trade letters 'On occasion;' Vietnam's deal is well set; Trade letters for smaller countries will be released soon, all of which will likely have blanket tariffs of over 10% (>100 nations)

(US) Pres Trump reportedly asked Ukraine Pres Zelenskiy if they could hit Moscow during the July 4th's call if Trump provided weapons capable of doing so; Trump has privately encouraged Ukraine to step up deep strikes on Russian territory - FT

600276.CN Hengrui Pharma and Kailera Therapeutics Report Positive Topline Data from Phase 3 Obesity Trial in China of Dual GLP-1/GIP Receptor Agonist HRS9531; Mean weight loss of 19.2% at 6 mg with no plateau in 48-week Phase 3 trial

ACI Reports Q1 $0.55 v $0.53e, Rev $24.9B v $24.7Be; Raises SSS outlook

BK Reports Q2 $1.94 adj v $1.74e, Adj Rev $5.03B v $4.86Be;

BLK Reports Q2 $12.05 v $10.78e, Rev $5.42B v $5.41Be; Notes early days in its next phase of even stronger growth

ERICB.SE Reports Q2 (SEK) 1.37 v 1.15e, Adj EBIT 7.05B v 6.08Be, Rev 56.1B v 59.4Be; Expect RAN market to remain broadly stable

ERJ CEO: 50% US tariff (on Brazil) would add cost of ~$9M per aircraft, may cause order cancellations and deferred deliveries; Tariff impact could reach BRL20B ($3.58B) by 2030; Would be able to maintain guidance under just 10% US tariff

JBHT TTN Summary of 17:00ET Earnings Call: Narrows FY25 Capex $550-650M (prior $500M-$700M); ~85 known fleet losses slipped into July; Early peak-season surcharges rolled out amid trade-policy uncertainty and varied customer strategies (pull-fowards, origin shifts), leveraging pre-funded capacity and high service scores to absorb demand swings.

JBHT Reports Q2 $1.31 v $1.34e, Rev $2.93B v $2.94Be

JPM Raises FY25 NII ex-markets ~$92B, adj expense outlook ~$95.5B v ~$91.5B y/y (prior $90B, $95B) - earnings slides

JPM Reports Q2 $4.96 adj v $4.51e, Managed Rev $45.7B v $43.8Be; CEO Dimon notes high fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices; IB activity started slow but gained momentum as market sentiment improve

OPEC monthly oil report (MOMR): OPEC+ Jun production -11K bpd vs plan; Kazakhstan overproduced by 479K bpd while Russia and Iraq underproduced slightly

WFC Reports Q2 $1.60 v $1.41e, Rev $20.8B v $20.7Be

WEDS 07-16

(CN) China Premier Li Qiang chairs State Council meeting; Reviewed report on EV market; Will deepen implementation of special initiatives aimed at increasing consumption – CCTV

(EU) European Commission proposes €1.98T draft budget for 2028-2034 - press (previously seen at €1.2-1.7T)

(UK) JUN CPI M/M: 0.3% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 3.6% V 3.4%E (highest annual pace since Jan 2024)

(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending July12th: 496.2K total units, +2.6% y/y (update)

(US) Fed's Bostic (non-voter for 2025 & 2026): Tries not to focus on news reports about the Fed, but on things that actually matter; We may be at an inflection point for inflation; We're seeing signs that inflation pressures are up

(US) DOE Announces Pilot Program to Build Advanced U.S. Nuclear Fuel Lines and End Foreign Dependence (update)

(US) Fed's Williams (voter): A lower dollar will likely add inflationary pressure; Reluctant to support lowering interest rates ahead of next meeting

(US) JUN PPI FINAL DEMAND M/M: 0.0% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 2.3% V 2.5%E (lowest annual pace since Sept 2024)

(US) JUN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 0.3% V 0.1%E

(US) Pres Trump reportedly asked House Republicans if he should fire Fed Chair Powell; Reps in the room 'voiced approval' and several said Trump indicated he will do it – CBS

(US) US Pres Trump: Denies drafting a letter to fire Powell, but did talk about the concept with GOP lawmakers; Highly unlikely to fire Powell, unless fraud is uncovered with the Fed buildings' renovation

(US) White House Officials: Trump will likely fire Fed Chair Powell soon – press

000660.KR Hearing Goldman Sachs Cuts 000660.KR to Neutral from Buy, price target: KRW310,000

ASML.NL Reports Q2 Net €2.29B v €2.01Be, Rev €7.69B v €7.37Be; Narrows outlook; "Still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage"

BAC TTN Summary Earnings Call: We saw improving market conditions during the quarter and our research team continues to predict No recession, about 1.5% GDP growth at year-end and No Fed rate cuts until next year

BAC Reports Q2 $0.89 v $0.86e, Rev $26.5B v $26.6Be; “Consumers remained resilient, with healthy spending and asset quality, and commercial borrower utilization rates rose"

GS Reports Q2 $10.91 v $9.43e, Rev $14.6B v $13.5Be; Economy and markets are generally responding positively to the evolving policy environment

JNJ Reports Q2 $2.77 v $2.66e, Rev $23.7B v $22.8Be; Raises outlook citing operational performance and favorable FX

PLD Reports Q2 Core FFO (ex NPI) $1.47 v $1.41e, Rev $2.18B v $2.00Be

PNC Guides Q3 average loans +1% q/q, NII +3% q/q, Rev +2-3% q/q (implies $5.77-5.83B v $5.80Be) - earnings slides

PNC Reports Q2 $3.85 v $3.56e, Rev $5.66B v $5.62Be

UAL Reports Q2 $3.87 adj v $3.86e, Rev $15.2B v $15.4Be; Sees Q3 positive inflection in both supply and demand

THRS 07-17

(BR) Brazil Pres Lula: Brazil is facing "unacceptable blackmail" instead of a US response on tariffs; Will not take orders from a gringo - financial press

(BR) Brazil Pres Lula: Open to negotiating whatever is necessary with US; Will (regulate) and collect taxes from big US tech companies - CNN interview

(CN) US Dept of Commerce issues prelim ruling on China graphite dumping; Plans to impose 93.5% tariff on battery material from China

(EU) EU said to offer US matching cuts in auto tariffs, abandoning more complex German system of a 'netting mechanism' - FT

(EU) EU reportedly prepares list of potential tariffs on US services as well as export control tools if trade talks fail; The list would come on top of a proposal for retaliation against €72B of annual US imports that EU countries are already discussing and which includes tariffs on Boeing aircraft, cars and bourbon – FT

(JP) JAPAN JUN NATIONAL CPI Y/Y: 3.3% V 3.3%E; CPI (EX-FRESH FOOD)/ Y/Y: 3.3% V 3.4%E

(JP) Japan and EU said to plan '2+2' economic talks and will discuss joint rare earth procurement as part of those talks – Nikkei

(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Lowers Q2 GDP estimate from 2.6% to 2.4%

(US) BOFA INSTITUTE: IN THE WEEK ENDING JUL 12TH TOTAL CARD SPENDING +4.5% Y/Y V +0.2% ON AVERAGE IN JUNE; Relative to last week, online retail saw the biggest rise in y/y spending growth

(US) Fed's Bostic (non-voter for 2025 & 2026): Economic outlook remains highly uncertain; Tariff adjustment could take months - WSJ interview

(US) Former Fed Gov Kevin Warsh: We are at transformational moment in US economic history because of good policy; Worried Fed might not see we are at front end of a productivity boom and too focused on old models, policies, and thinking around inflation - CNBC

(US) Fed’s Waller: Fed should cut interest rates by 25bps in July's meeting; An interest rate cut in July gives the Fed space to hold rates for a few meetings

(US) JUN ADVANCE RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.6% V 0.1%E; RETAIL SALES (EX-AUTO) M/M: 0.5% V 0.3%E

(US) JUN IMPORT PRICE INDEX M/M: 0.1% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: -0.2% V 0.4%E

(US) JULY PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK: 15.9 V -1.0E (highest since Feb); Prices Paid: 58.8 v 41.4 prior

2330.TW TTN Full Summary of 02:00ET Earnings Call: Data-center/server and sovereign AI orders “stronger than three months ago”; Tariff uncertainties and short-term China rebate programs may affect consumer/IoT segments; In 2026, TSMC may see higher growth in Revenue than in growth in Capex

2330.TW *RAISES FY25 REV INCREASE +30% Y/Y IN USD TERMS (implies ~$117B v $117.0Be) (prior up mid-20%s y/y, implied $111.6-114.3B)

2330.TW *CFO: GUIDES Q3 REV $31.8-33.0B V $30.7BE; NT$ FX FLUCTUATIONS TO HAVE SIZABLE IMPACT - EARNINGS CALL

2330.TW Reports Q2 (NT$) Net 398.3B v 376.4Be, Op 463.4B v 286.6B y/y, Rev 933.8B v 933.8B prelim

9880.HK Reportedly UBTech's new generation humanoid robot Walker S2 supports battery swap (without human intervention or shutdown, the world's first of its kind). and can autonomously complete battery replacement in 3 minutes – press

ABBN.CH Reports Q2 Net $1.15B v $1.12Be (v $0.91B y/y), Op EBITA $1.71B v $1.66Be, Rev $8.90B v $8.70Be; Trading environment remained largely unchanged, with similar uncertainty linked to potential impacts from trade tariffs

CFG Guides Q3 NII +3-4% q/q, net charge offs down modestly q/q; 2H25 environment shaping up to be constructive - earnings slides

ELV Reports Q2 $8.84 v $9.20e, Rev $49.4B v $48.2Be; Cuts outlook to reflect elevated medical cost trends in ACA and slower rate alignment in Medicaid

ESSITY-A.SE CEO: Sees negative growth in North America following a decline in demand; We can see that Americans are cutting back on restaurant visits and staying in hotels less

GE Reports Q2 $1.66 v $1.43e, Rev $10.2B v $9.66Be; Raises outlook for 2025 and 2028; To boost shareholder returns

LCID Lucid, Nuro, and Uber Partner on Next-Generation Autonomous Robotaxi Program; Uber aims to deploy 20K or more Lucid vehicles equipped with the Nuro Driver over six years (update)

MAN Reports Q2 $0.78 v $0.69e, Rev $4.52B v $4.35Be; Beginning to see positive signs of stabilization in the US and parts of Europe

OPENAI.IPO Introduces ChatGPT agent: bridging research and action; Will soon be able to shop online and make PowerPoints for users

PEP Reports Q2 Core $2.12 v $2.03e, Rev $22.7B v $22.4Be

Reportedly fintech and crypto firms are waging battle to stop banks from charging fees for customer data - The Information

TRV Reports Q2 $6.51 adj v $3.55e, Rev $12.1B v $12.2Be

UHR.CH Reports H1 (CHF) Op 68M v 204M y/y Rev 3.06B v 3.20Be; Notes decline in sales is exclusively attributable to China (including Hong Kong SAR and Macau SAR)

VOLCARB.SE Reports Q2 (SEK) adj EBIT 2.90B v 3.07Be, Rev 93.5B v 88.3Be; Notes turnaround plan is fully on track; "Demand remains under pressure from the macroeconomic environment, tariff-related uncertainties and tougher competition"

WAL Reports Q2 $2.07 v $2.04e, Net Rev $846M v $848Me

FRI 07-18

(EU) US Pres Trump said to advocate for 15-20% minimum tariff on EU imports; Declines to lower 25% sectoral sanctions on autos - FT

(RU) UK and EU lower Russian oil price cap from $60/bbl to $47.60/bbl (as expected)

(US) Two US lawmakers said to introduce bill to help finance construction of tiny homes – WSJ

(US) California Gov Newsom proposes easing process to obtain oil & gas drilling permits in that state - press

(US) JULY PRELIMINARY UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 61.8 V 61.5E; Inflation expectations fall back to pre-Apr 2nd levels

(US) JUN HOUSING STARTS: 1.321M V 1.300ME (bounce from 5-year low); BUILDING PERMITS: 1.397M V 1.387ME

MMM Reports Q2 $2.16 v $2.01e, Adj Rev $6.16B v $6.12Be; Raises EPS guidance including tariff impact

SCHW Reports Q2 $1.14 v $1.09e, Rev $5.85B v $5.70Be

HBAN Reports Q2 $0.38 v $0.38e, Rev $1.95B v $1.98Be

RF Reports Q2 $0.60 adj v $0.56e, Adj Rev $1.91B v $1.85Be

CVX Successful in Arbitration case against Exxon over Guyana oil assets; Clears way for Hess Chevron deal to go forward – CNBC

NVDA House China Committee Chair Moolenaar (R-MI) disagrees with decision to allow restarting sales of H20 chips to China - letter to Commerce Sec Lutnick