Impala Asset Management (Robert Bishop-previously was CIO at Soros Fund Mgmt) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing:
Highlights from 2016 Q3 filing as compared to 2016 Q2 filing:
- New positions in: CSX (~0.88 mln shares), DHI (~0.65 mln), CENX (~0.57 mln), BCS (~0.53 mln), HES (~0.45 mln), CLD (~0.41 mln), TUR (~0.28 mln), SU (~0.23 mln)
- Increased positions in: FLR (to ~1.34 mln shares from ~0.68 mln shares), RIO (to ~3.36 mln from ~2.6 mln), TSE (to ~0.46 mln from ~0.18 mln), CCL (to ~0.65 mln from ~0.03 mln)
- Maintained positions in: TTWO (~1.07 mln shares), KSU (~0.54 mln)
- Decreased positions in: CAA (to ~1.01 mln shares from ~2.37 mln shares), SWFT (to ~3.69 mln from ~4.37 mln), NVDA (to ~0.04 mln from ~0.68 mln), HOG (to ~1.24 mln from ~1.87 mln), KEX (to ~0.03 mln from ~0.52 mln), CLR (to ~0.51 mln from ~0.91 mln), HZO (to ~1.13 mln from ~1.51 mln), X (to ~2.49 mln from ~2.85 mln)
- Closed positions in: JOY (from ~0.39 mln shares), HBI (from ~0.15 mln), WWAV (from ~0.09 mln), VC (from ~0.06 mln), MNST (from ~0.05 mln), HD (from ~0.04 mln), PYPL (from ~0.04 mln), FB (from ~0.04 mln), LYB (from ~0.03 mln)
Kynikos Associates (Jim Chanos) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing:
Highlights from 2016 Q3 filing as compared to 2016 Q2 filing:
- New positions in: AMCX (~0.06 mln shares), LOW (~0.05 mln)
- Increased positions in: STRZA (to ~0.17 mln shares from ~0.15 mln shares)
- Decreased positions in: ENR (to ~0.07 mln shares from ~0.13 mln shares), CCK (to ~0.08 mln from ~0.13 mln)
- Closed positions in: CYNO (from ~0.07 mln shares), CHKP (from ~0.05 mln)
Silver Point Capital discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: Closed out GLBL, DYN, VRX positions
Highlights from 2016 Q3 filing as compared to 2016 Q2 filing:
- New positions in: KDMN (~1 mln shares), VRS (~0.65 mln)
- Increased positions in: PHH (to ~4.41 mln shares from ~4 mln shares)
- Maintained positions in: NPO (~1.61 mln shares
- Decreased positions in: CZR (to ~1.7 mln shares from ~3.52 mln shares), CPS (to ~2.68 mln from ~3.59 mln), BLD (to ~0.45 mln from ~1.13 mln), AIG (to ~1.55 mln from ~2.14 mln), HCAC.W (to ~0.01 mln from ~0.3 mln), TVPT (to ~2.14 mln from ~2.42 mln), ALLY (to ~1.88 mln from ~2.1 mln)
- Closed positions in: GLBL (from ~2.13 mln shares), DYN (from ~1.82 mln) VRX (from ~0.44 mln)
Maverick Capital discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: Added DG, TMUS, SPY, AKRX, Closed ARMK, LILA.K, ANF
Highlights from 2016 Q3 filing as compared to 2016 Q2 filing:
- New positions in: DG (~2.66 mln shares), TMUS (~0.95 mln), SUM (~0.49 mln), SPY (~0.24 mln), NE (~0.21 mln), INSY (~0.2 mln), SWFT (~0.16 mln), RTRX (~0.15 mln), BUFF (~0.12 mln), AKRX (~0.12 mln)
- Increased positions in: PACB (to ~9.1 mln shares from ~7.82 mln shares), ERIC (to ~8.08 mln from ~6.8 mln), PM (to ~7.23 mln from ~5.85 mln), UHS (to ~4.58 mln from ~2.77 mln), AAPL (to ~1.99 mln from ~0.01 mln) PFE (to ~21.38 mln from ~18.43 mln), LVLT (to ~5.59 mln from ~0.94 mln)
- Maintained positions in: SABR (~21.37 mln shares), COMM (~16.5 mln shares), WCN (~5.89 mln shares), NOC (~1.11 mln shares), PCLN (~0.41 mln shares), GOOG (~0.3 mln shares)
- Decreased positions in: RDN (to ~9.3 mln shares from ~13.94 mln shares), ADBE (to ~1.1 mln from ~2.57 mln), AXP (to ~3.56 mln from ~4.65 mln), FB (to ~1.72 mln from ~2.78 mln), MYL (to ~1.34 mln from ~2.29 mln), LRCX (to ~4.55 mln from ~5.47 mln), USB (to ~2.71 mln from ~3.62 mln), CMCS.A (to ~2.79 mln from ~3.36 mln), EBAY (to ~0.08 mln from ~0.11 mln), NVDA (to ~0.05 mln from ~0.07 mln)
- Closed positions in: ARMK (from ~6.78 mln shares), LBTY.K (from ~1.52 mln), AGN (from ~0.88 mln), LILA.K (from ~0.68 mln), JACK (from ~0.67 mln), SBS (from ~0.17 mln), ANF (from ~0.16 mln), IPG (from ~0.13 mln), SFM (from ~0.13 mln)
BofA-ML
SHAWBROOK - Cont strong growth. NIM is stable & asset quality benign (222p).+5%
BEIERSDORF - Strong print with OSG of 3.1%, despite tough comps in qtr(81)+3-4%
VONOVIA - Guide raised to top end of prev range @€760m. Up divi guide (32.5)+3%
REGUS - Stock been weak of late. Update looks inline with H1 result (250p)..+3%
MORRISON - Beat. Total sales exc fuel -1.2% with LFL +1.6% v +1.4% (227.9)..+3%
TATE - Beat across the board. Expects FY PBT to be ahead of guidance (800p).+3%
SOCGEN - Strong with revs 3% & NI 35% ahead. Should drive o/performance (35)+3%
LANCASHIRE - 3Q PBT of 42.9m v 33.7m cons. Combined ratio is -4% (727p)...+2-3%
PROSIEBEN - EBITDA +13%, guidance was for >10%. Revs +15% v 15% cons (e39)..+2%
SHIRE - We add to Europe 1 (our best ideas) list. Stock is too cheap (45.2).+2%
INMARSAT - Revs 2.1% ahead driven by good perf at the Govt segment (745p)...+2%
JRP GROUP - Relief. DB de-risking sales of £414m 12% ahead of cons (125.5p).+2%
OPHIR - Shell commenced drilling of 1st two offshore commitment wells (72p).+2%
HERMES - Sales 2% beat. Growth of 8.8% cFX v est 7%. FY guide upped (374)...+2%
FRAPORT - Inline. FY EBITDA guide raised to E1040-1080m on Manila comp (55).+1%
GAMESA - Secured five new orders for the supply of a total of 304 MW (20.3).+1%
ING - Very small beat v cons. CET1 ratio rises, should be enough (11.7).....+1%
DSM - P&L 4% beat at EBITDA line on inline sales. EPS broadly inline (57.7).+1%
HOCHTIEF - Slightly ahead of Q3 cons, FY2016 guidance fully confirmed (124).+1%
SWISS RE - Beat with NI $1175m v $961m cons & announce 1bn buyback (90.9)...+1%
MINERS - Brent +1.6%, Iron ore +0.5% with BHP OZ +0.4%, RIO OZ -0.5%........u/c
GLENCORE - YTD prodn inline to small beat. Good perf copper & zinc (247)....u/c
CRODA - Constant FX sales +2.5% inline with Q2 trends. Confirm FY (3461p)...u/c
VEOLIA - Mixed. EBIT/NI slightly above cons while Rev/EBITDA 0.5% miss(19)-0.5%
ROCHE - 2 'Dear Investigator Letters' sent on the PIII trial drug (CHF222).-1%
CS - Mixed results, not as good as peers. PBT beat, CET1 10bps better (13)-1-2%
ASML - Announcing a 1.75bn investment in one of its suppliers Zeiss (92)..-1-2%
RANDGOLD - 15% earnings miss v cons & EBITDA 5% miss. Gold output +7% (7425)-2%
DIALOG - Guidance $360m at mid point v cons $373m. Announce buyback (e34.5).-2%
REPSOL - NI €307m looks like small miss,€1.14b EBITDA 3% below our ests (12)-2%
SWISSCOM - Light with revs 0.5% & EBITDA 0.9% below cons but FY reitd(436)-2-3%
EUROPRIS - Rev 3% and EBITDA 10% miss. Expect to see downgrades today (32)..-3%
ADIDAS - Inline with revs +17% cFX v 16.6% cons. FY guidance unch (144.9)...-3%
CS
Adidas -2-3% Operating profit 563m cons 564.9m, sales ahead
Adidas -2-3% Operating profit 563m cons 564.9m, sales ahead
Alstom +0.5% Alstom/Bombardier are only bidders left for E3.7b contract
Ascom +2% Long term targets ahead of investor day look ahead
Axel Sprngr +2% 3Q Sales 801.5m cons 796m, confirms FY forecasts
Beiersdorf +2-3% Q3 organic inline, margin guidance upgraded
Credit Suisse R 3Q net CHF41M, est loss CHF150M
Croda -2% Maintained FY guidance but FX helping
Dufry +1-2% Q3 revs 1.4% ahead, organic growth better
Dialog Semi -1-2% Had pre-announced, Q4 guidance is a little light
Draegerwerk -1-2% EBIT slightly ahead and sales slightly below
DSM +1-2% Q3 EBITDA 323m Cons 310m, Guidance reiterated
Glencore UNCH No's broadly inline small upgrade in marketing guidance
GN Store Nord +2% Organic growth better, guidance confirmed
Fraport -1% Numbers inline guidance small ahead
Genmab +3-5% Guidance raised on strong Darzalex uptake
Howden +2% Solid performance in 2H, on track to meet expectations
Hermes +3% Q3 sales up 8.8% on constant FX vs est +7%
Hochtief M/P Q3 EBT slightly ahead of cons, confirms FY guidance
ING Groep +3-4% PTP at 1.88b cons 1.56b, CET1 at 13.5% vs cons 13.1%
Inmarsat +2-3% Mixed with Maritime weak but Govt & Aviation very strong
Lancashire +3% PBT better, special dividend ahead of expectations
Miners -1% Copper UNCH, Brent +1.85%, Iron Ore UNCH, China +0.95%
Morrison +1% 3Q LFL sales ex-fuel up 1.6%, est up 1.4%
Next -1% CS DOWNGRADE to UNDERPERFORM (Margin worries)
Novo Nord +1% Negative note from Bernstein on Roche's Haemophilia drug
Orpea +1-2% Sales in third quarter increased 16.8%, confident outlook
Randgold -1-2% Guidance challenging, larger mine behind on production
Repsol -2-3% Adj net of 307m, cons of €320m, cashflow weaker
Regus UNCH Marture continues to moderate, stock has been weak
Rheinmetall +2-3% Sales inline, earnings c7.5% ahead, guidance better
Roche -0.5% Negative note from Bernstein on ACE910 which is Haemophilia
Schroders +3-4% AuM and PBT a good beat, inflow encouraging
Scandi Tob -2-3% Q3 revs inline, cuts FY outlook
Shawbrook M/P Net loan growth Q3 is £157m, looking for £300m for FY
Shire +2% Negative note from Bernstein on Roche's Haemophilia drug
Soc Gen +1-2% Q3 net of €1099m cons €886m, beat came from FICC
Swiss Re +2% Net income 22% better vs cons, better performance in P&C
Swisscom -2% Revs ahead, FY16 Guidance Reiterated
Tates +3% Pretax 140m cons circa 125m
Valiant +1-2% 9-month net income CHf81.4m cons 77.3m
Veolia UNCH EBITA 0.6% light, Net 1.7% ahead of cons
Volkswagen +0.5% VW Financial Services raises forecast for 2016
Vonovia +2% LFL rental grwoth +2.8%, Strong valuation uplift
Jefferies first thoughts:
Howden +2% in line update, relief after TPK
Inmarsat +2% numbers good enough, Govt strong, nothing for bears
Morrison +1% Q3 lfl ex-fuel +1.6% vs cons +1.4%
Spirent -2% revenue expectations may have to come down
Tate & Lyle +1% 1H revs in line ..sees FY adj pretax higher
Adidas -2% in line numbers, confirm FY guidance
Beiersdorf +2% 9m TESA org sales +1.2% vs cons +0.6%, raise FY guidance
Cr Suisse +2% Q3 net 41mn v e-150mn, long way to go, outlook challenging
Dialog -3% Q3 in line, but cut Q4 rev guidance
DSM +1% organic growth & EBITDA strong. outlook maintained
Dufry +1% in line Q3s, or growth +1.3% vs our est unch
Genamb +3% Darzalex better than exp
Hermes +3% rev and org growth beat
ING +3% Q3 CET1 13.5%, adj net 1.34bn v e1.15bn, higher interest income
Kloeckner +1% Sl 3Q EBITDA beat, but no increase to FY guidance implies weaker 4Q
Pro7 +1% in line Q3s, upbeat guidance
Repsol -2% Q3 net in line, but net debt worse
Soc Gen +2% Q3 net 1.1bn v e790mn, CET1 11.4%
Swiss Re +2% Q3 net $1.18bn v e931.8m, confirm chf 1bn buyback
Swisscom +1% net income nad EBITDA better, see growing competition domestically
Veolia -1% rev guidance cut but have increased cost savings.
Adidas -2-3% Operating profit 563m cons 564.9m, sales ahead
Alstom +0.5% Alstom/Bombardier are only bidders left for E3.7b contract
Ascom +2% Long term targets ahead of investor day look ahead
Axel Sprngr +2% 3Q Sales 801.5m cons 796m, confirms FY forecasts
Beiersdorf +2-3% Q3 organic inline, margin guidance upgraded
Credit Suisse R 3Q net CHF41M, est loss CHF150M
Croda -2% Maintained FY guidance but FX helping
Dufry +1-2% Q3 revs 1.4% ahead, organic growth better
Dialog Semi -1-2% Had pre-announced, Q4 guidance is a little light
Draegerwerk -1-2% EBIT slightly ahead and sales slightly below
DSM +1-2% Q3 EBITDA 323m Cons 310m, Guidance reiterated
Glencore UNCH No's broadly inline small upgrade in marketing guidance
GN Store Nord +2% Organic growth better, guidance confirmed
Fraport -1% Numbers inline guidance small ahead
Genmab +3-5% Guidance raised on strong Darzalex uptake
Howden +2% Solid performance in 2H, on track to meet expectations
Hermes +3% Q3 sales up 8.8% on constant FX vs est +7%
Hochtief M/P Q3 EBT slightly ahead of cons, confirms FY guidance
ING Groep +3-4% PTP at 1.88b cons 1.56b, CET1 at 13.5% vs cons 13.1%
Inmarsat +2-3% Mixed with Maritime weak but Govt & Aviation very strong
Lancashire +3% PBT better, special dividend ahead of expectations
Miners -1% Copper UNCH, Brent +1.85%, Iron Ore UNCH, China +0.95%
Morrison +1% 3Q LFL sales ex-fuel up 1.6%, est up 1.4%
Next -1% CS DOWNGRADE to UNDERPERFORM (Margin worries)
Novo Nord +1% Negative note from Bernstein on Roche's Haemophilia drug
Orpea +1-2% Sales in third quarter increased 16.8%, confident outlook
Randgold -1-2% Guidance challenging, larger mine behind on production
Repsol -2-3% Adj net of 307m, cons of €320m, cashflow weaker
Regus UNCH Marture continues to moderate, stock has been weak
Rheinmetall +2-3% Sales inline, earnings c7.5% ahead, guidance better
Roche -0.5% Negative note from Bernstein on ACE910 which is Haemophilia
Schroders +3-4% AuM and PBT a good beat, inflow encouraging
Scandi Tob -2-3% Q3 revs inline, cuts FY outlook
Shawbrook M/P Net loan growth Q3 is £157m, looking for £300m for FY
Shire +2% Negative note from Bernstein on Roche's Haemophilia drug
Soc Gen +1-2% Q3 net of €1099m cons €886m, beat came from FICC
Swiss Re +2% Net income 22% better vs cons, better performance in P&C
Swisscom -2% Revs ahead, FY16 Guidance Reiterated
Tates +3% Pretax 140m cons circa 125m
Valiant +1-2% 9-month net income CHf81.4m cons 77.3m
Veolia UNCH EBITA 0.6% light, Net 1.7% ahead of cons
Volkswagen +0.5% VW Financial Services raises forecast for 2016
Vonovia +2% LFL rental grwoth +2.8%, Strong valuation uplift
British satellite communications group Inmarsat has warned its customers are set to feel the pinch from “economic and budgetary” pressures as it reported a climb in its third quarter revenues.
Inmarsat reported a 5.8 per cent rise revenues of $341.9bn in the three months to the end of September, growth of $18.8m from the same period last year.
The company’s significant maritime and enterprise businesses have suffered a 5 per cent decline in sales on the back of a recession in the commercial shipping industry and weakness in international trade.
Sales to global governments rose 9.8 per cent to $84.8m in the quarter, driven by the US market where Inmarsat provides high capacity satellites called Global Xpress (GX). It kept its revenue guidance unchanged at $1.175bn-$1.25bn.
Rupert Pearce, chief executive said:
Trading continues to be challenging, with economic and budgetary pressures affecting our customers generally. We are nevertheless competing aggressively and successfully in each of our core markets and making steady progress with both the commercialisation of GX and in Aviation cabin connectivity.
Last month, Inmarsat announced a landmark deal with telecoms giant Vodafone to provide internet connectivity to far flung parts of the world only accessible to satellite communications for the so-called “internet of things” sector.
The deal has been hailed as the first time the satellite and traditional wireless networks have worked together to provide connectivity for machines and autonomous software applications.
UK Property
1st month of property fund inflows this year
Latest data on property funds show inflows in September for
the first time this year. Normally these flows correlate with
NAV valuation in the listed sector, but this relationship has
recently broken down, as we show.
Property funds saw inflows in September, for the first time this year. Flows into
retail property funds were mildly positive in September, totalling £100 million,
as per data from the IMA (Exhibit 1). This follows a flat showing in August, £0.8
billion outflow in July, and £1.5 billion of outflows in June. So far this year, nearly
£3 billion has been withdrawn from these funds.
Previous months' outflows have been unprecedented. 2016 outflow levels have
been unprecedented; we experienced a quarter with £0.5 billion of net outflows
in the run-up to the global financial crisis (1Q07), and the worst quarter during
the crisis was 4Q08 with a total of £0.3 billion of net outflows (Exhibit 3), which
is nothing like what has happened in 2016.
Some funds have reportedly been cancelling sales as a result. An article in the
Financial Times earlier this week highlighted that some UK open-ended funds are
no longer trying to sell some of their central London buildings as investors have
started putting money back into the sector. It highlights Zurich's Property Fund,
managed by Columbia Threadneedle, which has halted a £100 million sale of
two office buildings in Camden after receiving bids to buy them; while Blackrock's
UK Property Fund has scaled back a portfolio sale known as Project Rio from
£200 million to £85 million following a return to inflows, the article said. Neither
company has commented on the article.
Is search for yield trumping Brexit risk? Spreads in the listed sector vs bond
yields are now at historically wide levels (see Exhibit 4 and Exhibit 5). On an
absolute basis, this has historically been a good moment to invest in the listed
sector, as our backtest shows (Exhibit 6).
Normally flows are correlated with NAV valuation. Normally, outflows from
property funds correlate with NAV valuation in the listed sector. Unless this
inflow month turns out to be a one-off (possible – note that sterling weakness in
October is not captured in these figures), we think this should support NAV
valuation, which is already close to trough levels in a historical context.
Investment thesis – 2017 PE <10x offering a 2017-22e EPS CAGR of 19% (sector
on 14x offering 9%). A push back to our bullish call has been Shire’s high leverage
(>4x net debt/ pro-forma EBITDA though we forecast 2.7x in 2017). We note Shire
is now on a 2017e EV/EBITDA of 10.9x, offering a FCF yield of 8-13% (10%
discount to sector offering 5-8%). With a DCF valuation of £70 and bull-bear of £84-
35 we find the risk-reward compelling. Other favoured pharma plays include
AstraZeneca, Bayer, BMY, Genmab, GSK, LLY, Merck KGaA, and Roche.
Post-Q3 EPS cuts still leave us 7-15% ahead of 17-19e consensus – we
prudently reduce our Hematology forecasts to reflect potential
pricing/reimbursement pressures. We model faster delivery of the $700m Baxalta
synergies, and a stronger outlook for the ADHD and GI franchises. We maintain our
Xiidra estimates; $1.1bn in 2020, $1.8bn in 2025e and a peak in 2030e of $2.5bn.
Given prodigious cash flow we continue to model buybacks of $3-6bn from 2019e.
Share price discounting an overly bearish Hematology outlook. Safety
concerns for ACE910? – we forecast Hematology revenues of $4bn in 2017, with
growth thereafter of 0-3% per annum. All else being equal one needs to assume
Hematology revenue declines of -10% per annum from 2018, at a 100%
contribution margin, for our NPV valuation to fall to the current share price. We view
this as overly pessimistic given underlying volume growth, pipeline considerations
and potential ACE910 safety concerns. Roche has confirmed 4 serious adverse
events in patients treating breakthrough bleeds with a bypassing agent (we assume
FEIBA vs. NovoSeven). A Dear Investigator letter has been issued advising not to
use FEIBA when treating ACE910 patients experiencing breakthrough bleeds.
Thoughts into Nov 10th CMD - We expect Shire to deep dive its Hematology and
IVIG franchises (40% of sales), as well as highlight pipeline assets SHP647 (modsevere
IBD), SHP607 (RoP) and SHP621 (eosinophilic esophagitis). Our current
peak sales forecasts are modest at $400m, $100m and $80m (2% of group).