>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 13th of December 20

>>> Up
*Adecco Raised to Buy at Citi, PT CHF77
*Assa Abloy Raised to Hold at SEB Equities
*Assa Abloy Raised to Overweight at Barclays, PT SEK200
*Britvic Raised to Buy at SocGen, PT 630p
*Buenaventura Raised to Buy at HSBC
*Drax Raised to Sector Perform at RBC, PT 320p
*Electrolux Raised to Buy at SEB Equities, PT SEK260
*Glencore Raised to Buy at SocGen, PT 370p
*InterContinental Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
*Mediaset Raised to Outperform at Macquarie, PT EU4
*Philips Lighting Raised to Overweight at Barclays, PT EU27
*Randstad Raised to Buy at Citi, PT EU60
*Rexel Raised to Overweight at Barclays, PT EU18.50
*RBC Bearings Raised to Outperform at William Blair
*Richemont Raised to Hold at Berenberg, PT CHF60
*Saipem Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
*Suedzucker Raised to Buy at Bankhaus Lampe
*Unilever Raised to Buy at Jefferies, PT EU44

>>> Down
*ABB Cut to Underperform at Jefferies, PT $18
*A.G. Barr Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan, PT 490p
*Andritz Cut to Neutral at UBS
*Axa Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank
*Balder Cut to Hold at DNB Markets, PT SEK185
*Cenovus Energy Cut to Hold at Edward Jones
*DNB CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT ARCTIC SECURITIES
*Grifols Cut to Neutral at UBS, PT EU18
*Metro Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley, PT EU26
*Skanska Cut to Hold at DNB Markets, PT SEK235
*SKF Cut to Hold at SEB Equities
*SKF Cut to Underweight at Barclays, PT SEK155
*Swisscom Cut to Neutral at BofAML, PT CHF490
*Standard Life Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank, PT 370p
*Wood Group Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley

>>> PT Change


>>> Initiation
*Aldermore Group Rated New Buy at Liberum, PT 245p
*Allianz Rated New Neutral at Credit Suisse, PT EU175
*Axa Rated New Outperform at Credit Suisse, PT EU28.50
*Close Brothers Rated New Hold at Liberum, PT 1400p
*Generali Rated New Underperform at Credit Suisse, PT EU13.50
*Ingenico Group Rated New Outperform at Macquarie, PT EU81.36
*Nets Rated New Neutral at Macquarie, PT DKK117
*Norwegian Cruise Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
*OneSavings Bank Rated New Buy at Liberum, PT 395p
*Paragon Rated New Hold at Liberum, PT 395p
*Shawbrook Group Rated New Buy at Liberum, PT 290p
*Worldpay Rated New Outperform at Macquarie, PT GBP2.93
*Zurich Ins. Rated New Outperform at Credit Suisse, PT CHF330

>>> Call
>> Stock
*SKY REMOVED FROM CITI FOCUS LIST EUROPE; KEPT AT BUY
**DIAGEO ADDED TO ANALYST FOCUS LIST AT JPMORGAN

>>> Asian Update

Asia Mid-Session Market Update: China Retail Sales and Industrial Output top expectations; Soft Australia NAB confidence supports the case for more easing; ADB cuts 2016 GDP forecasts

***US Session Highlights***
- US 10-year Note yield moves above 2.50% for 1st time since Oct 2014; Fed expected to hike at its decision on Wed
- Italy Govt said to be ready to step in with emergency decree on banks if necessary

***US markets on close: Dow +0.2%, S&P500 -0.1%, Nasdaq -0.6%***
- Best Sector in S&P500: Utilities
- Worst Sector in S&P500: Financials
- Biggest gainers: REGN +3.8%, CMG +3.4%, EQIX +3.2%, JNJ +2.8%, DLR +2.6%
- Biggest losers: ALXN -12.9%, VIAB -9.4%, SWN -8.8%, RRC -7.3%, FOXA -6.6%
- At the close: VIX 12.6 (+0.9pts); Treasuries: 2-yr 1.15% (flat), 10-yr 2.48% (+2bps), 30-yr 3.16% (+1bps)

***US movers afterhours***
- BA: Raises dividend 30% to $1.42 from $1.09 (indicated yield 3.61%); Renews $14B share repurchase authorization (14% of market cap); +1.5% afterhours
- WWE: Guides Q4 avg paid subscribers to at least 1.40M (prior 1.42M); affirms Q4 adj OIBDA and op income guidance; -3.0% afterhours
- AKAO: To offer 5.75M shares of stock (21% of outstanding); -7.9% afterhours
- INOV: Cuts FY16 $0.32-0.33 v $0.44e, Rev $426-428M v $473Me (prior $0.39-0.46, R$470-490M); -34.3% afterhours

***Politics***
- (US) President-elect Trump to name Exxon CEO Tillerson as Secretary of State - Fox News and NBC
- (US) Trump to delay the announcement about his plans for his businesses until January; Announcement expected this Thursday - press
- (US) Trump remains the winner in Wisconsin primary following the recount; Pennsylvania primary victory for Trump also certified - press

***Asia Key economic data:***
- (CN) CHINA NOV INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 6.2% (3-month high) V 6.1%E; YTD Y/Y: 6.0% V 6.0%E
- (CN) CHINA NOV RETAIL SALES Y/Y: 10.8% (11-month high) V 10.2%E; YTD Y/Y: 10.4% V 10.3%E
- (CN) CHINA NOV FIXED ASSETS EX RURAL YTD Y/Y: 8.3% V 8.3%E
- (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV NAB BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 5 V 4 PRIOR; CONDITIONS: 5 (19-month low) V 7 PRIOR
- (AU) AUSTRALIA Q3 HOUSE PRICE INDEX Q/Q: 1.5% V 2.5%E; Y/Y: 3.5% V 4.6%E
- (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 113.4 v 118.6 prior
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q3 MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY (SA) Q/Q: 0.4% V 2.2% PRIOR; VOLUME Q/Q: 2.1% V 2.8% PRIOR

***Asia Session Notable Observations, Speakers and Press***
- Asian indices mixed with Shanghai Composite remaining under most direct pressure despite the better than expected set of November economic data; USD majors largely in narrow ranges with little reaction to China figures for AUD, as traders more inclined to await the expected Fed decision to hike rates this Wednesday and assess the accompanying statement for tightening inclination next year.
- China industrial output at a 3-month high and retail sales at a 11-month high; Notable output components show power generation +7%, steel +5%, and coal -5%. Investment components show property investment +6.5%, construction +7.6%, and sales value +37.5%. NBS notes the data show economy staying in reasonable range with some improvement and stabilization of investment over the past 4 months.
- ADB cuts developing Asia 2016 GDP to 5.6% from 5.7% and Maintains 2017 GDP at 5.7%. SE Asia 2016 cut to 6.6% from 6.9% and East Asia maintained at 5.8%. China seen at 6.6% in 2016 and 6.4% in 2017. ADB calling for structural reforms to boost productivity, improve investment climate, and support domestic demand can help maintain growth momentum into the future.
- US press speculates BOJ is considering raising its economic assessment for the first time since May 2015, while former BOJ member Shirai says central bank will have to raise its 10-yr JGB yield target and also reduce JGB purchases next year to adjust to post-Trump rising of US Treasury rates and lower JPY.
- Australia NAB Conditions falls to a 19-month low, with resident economist concerned about the direction of the non-mining recovery in the near term. Separately, ANZ weekly confidence also retreats due to "shockingly weak Q3 GDP". Economists suggest the recent spate of underwhelming Aussie data points could bring RBA back to easing mode next year.

China:
- (CN) Moody's: China banks are facing increasing risks in asset quality; due to rising leverage in the system
- (CN) China Stats Bureau (NBS): Positive changes have increased in China; Economy stays in reasonable range - press
- (CN) China Foreign Ministry: President-elect Trump should act prudently on the Taiwan question to avoid "serious damage to the Sino-US relationship" - China Daily

Japan:
- (JP) BOJ said to consider raising its overall economic assessment for the first time since May 2015 in the upcoming Dec decision - press
- (JP) Former BOJ member Shirai: 10-year JGB yield already moving away from target of 0.0%; BOJ may have to raise 10-year target next year - CNBC
- (JP) According to a Nikkei survey, Japan winter bonuses are seen rising just 0.1% y/y - Nikkei

Australia
- (AU) JPMorgan: Latest NAB survey continues to suggest fading in consumer sentiment; Some further RBA policy easing likely to be required - Australian press
- CBA.AU: Raises variable investment home mortgage rate by 7bps to 5.56%

***Asian Equity Indices/Futures (00:00ET)***
- Nikkei +0.2%, Hang Seng -0.5%, Shanghai Composite -0.7%, ASX200 -0.2%, Kospi +0.1%
- Equity Futures: S&P e-mini flat, FTSE100 -0.1%

***FX ranges/Commodities/Fixed Income (00:00ET)***
- EUR 1.0625-1.0650; JPY 114.75-115.20; AUD 0.7490-0.7515; NZD 0.7185-0.7205
- Feb Gold -0.2% at 1,164/oz; Jan Crude Oil -0.3% at $52.69/brl; Mar Copper -0.1% at $2.60/lb
- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 1.2 tonnes to 856.3 tonnes; 18th straight decline; lowest since May 18th
- (HK) Hong Kong 1-month HK$ HIBOR 0.62429% (~8-yr high) v 0.58357% prior; 3-month 0.86571% v 0.82107% prior
- JGB: (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥2.17T in 0.1% 5-year JGB bonds; avg yield -0.063% v -0.160% prior; bid-to-cover 4.48x (highest since June) v 3.56x prior
- USD/CNY: (CN) PBOC SETS YUAN MID POINT AT 6.8934 V 6.9086 PRIOR
- (AU) Australia Finance Ministry (AOFM) sells A$200M in 3.0% 2025 bonds; avg yield 0.7462%; bid-to-cover 2.1x

***Asia equities / Notables / movers by sector***
- Consumer discretionary: Lovisa LOV.AU +11.5% (Morgans Financial raised to add); DeNA Co. 2432.JP -2.1% (SMBC cuts to equal weight)
- Financials: China Overseas Land 688.HK -1.1% (Nov result); China Resources Land 1109.HK -0.9% (Nov result); Credit China Holdings 8207.HK -5.3%
- Industrials: SMC Corp 6273.JP -7.1% (short-seller questions accounting issues)
- Technology: Japan Display 6740.JP +10.9% (speculation on JV); Aconex ACX.AU +3.2% (signs agreement with Fletcher Building)
- Materials: OceanaGold Corp OGC.AU +2.4% (guidance); Newcrest Mining NCM.AU -0.7% (affirms output guidance)

>>> US After Hours Summary: URBN +2% following comps update, BA higher


After Hours Summary: URBN +2% following comps update, BA higher following dividend / buyback news -- and despite reports of additional 777 cuts... INOV -33%, PAY -4.5% following earnings/guidance

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: URBN +2.1% (discloses thus far during the fourth quarter comparable Retail segment net sales are low single-digit positive)

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: APRI +20.1% (continued strength following ~50% move higher), ABUS +11.9% (reports new results from the ongoing Phase II study of ARB-1467 in chronically infected HBV patients on stable nucleos(t)ide therapy), BA +1.8% (increases quarterly dividend to $1.42/share from $1.09/share; replaces existing share repurchase program with a new $14 billion authorization), NVCR +1.7% (will present data from its phase 2 pilot PANOVA clinical trial at its R&D day on Dec. 12 suggesting that TTFields plus first-line chemotherapies nab-paclitaxel and gemcitabine may be tolerable and safe in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: INOV -33% (lowers FY16 guidance due to inability to enter into expected collaboration agreement as a result of unforeseen circumstances impacting counter-party), PPHM -12%, PAY -4.5%, WWE -3% (light volume - raised the low end of its projected range of average paid WWE Network subs for Q4 and reaffirmed its 2016 adj. OIBDA and Operating income guidance; to offer $175 mln convertible senior notes due 2023 in a private placement)

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: AKAO -7.7% (following ~150% move higher; commences 5.75 mln common stock offering), NSA -3.4% (commences an underwritten public offering of 4,500,000 common shares of beneficial interest of the Company), ARI -2.6% (commences 10.5 mln share common stock offering), MIK -2.3% (Michaels Stores announces secondary offering of 12 mln shares of common stock by selling stockholders and repurchase by the company of a portion of such common stock), RPRX -2% (announces it has requested a meeting to discuss Phase 3 requirements for the development of Proellex for the treatment of symptomatic uterine fibroids; anticipates meeting in 1H of 2017), STAY -1.9% (announces secondary offering and repurchase of paired shares), UNVR -1.6% (files for common stock shelf offering by selling shareholders; commences 12.5 mln common stock offering by selling stockholders, investment funds affiliated with Clayton, Dubilier & Rice and Dahlia Investments), WFC -0.3% (ticking lower; California Department of Insurance investigating allegations against Wells Fargo)

CB News : Vivendi s’attaque au capital de Mediaset


Vivendi s’attaque au capital de Mediaset

Vivendi a ouvert lundi un nouveau front dans la bataille l’opposant à Mediaset, en annonçant détenir 3,01 % du groupe italien et envisager d’accroître sa participation jusqu’à 20 % afin d’en devenir le deuxième actionnaire industriel. "L’entrée au capital de Mediaset s’inscrit dans la volonté de Vivendi de se développer en Europe du Sud et dans le cadre de ses ambitions stratégiques en tant que groupe international majeur dans le domaine des médias et des contenus d’essence européenne", indique le groupe de Vincent Bolloré dans un communiqué. Réagissant à cette annonce, des sources proches de Mediaset ont qualifié d'"opération hostile" la manœuvre de Vivendi, selon des propos rapportés par l’agence italienne Radiocor. "Depuis le 25 juillet, le titre Mediaset a perdu 30 % et toutes les mauvaises intentions qui nous avaient préoccupées se sont avérées", ont ajouté ces sources. Après avoir été amicales, les relations entre les deux groupes de médias, qui prévoyaient au départ d’être partenaires, se sont progressivement détériorées au cours des derniers mois, avec en toile de fond le bouquet de télévisions payantes Mediaset Premium. Le 8 avril, ils avaient ainsi annoncé un accord stratégique prévoyant la prise de contrôle par Vivendi de 100 % de Premium et un échange de participations de 3,5 %. Mais le 25 juillet, l’entreprise dirigée par Vincent Bolloré avait indiqué ne plus vouloir racheter ce bouquet, en raison de doutes concernant ses résultats futurs.
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Elle avait alors proposé d’acquérir 20 % du bouquet et de prendre une participation de 15 % dans Mediaset, via l’émission d’une obligation convertible obligatoire, une proposition rejetée par le groupe du magnat et ancien Premier ministre italien, Silvio Berlusconi. Ce dernier a engagé une première procédure judiciaire en août pour réclamer à Vivendi 50 millions d’euros pour chaque mois de retard dans l’application du contrat. La première audience dans ce dossier est fixée au 21 mars. Le groupe italien avait encore durci le bras de fer en formulant le 12 octobre une demande de mise sous séquestre des 3,5 % de Vivendi, à laquelle le groupe français avait réagi en annonçant se considérer "libéré de sa volonté de privilégier une solution amicale". Mediaset avait finalement renoncé à cette demande de mise sous séquestre en novembre. Ces soubresauts n’ont pas découragé Vivendi, qui a estimé lundi que "l’intérêt stratégique du partenariat industriel annoncé le 8 avril dépasse les enjeux de ce contentieux", d’où son entrée au capital de sa proie.

WSJ Apple Held Talks to Invest in SoftBank Technology Fund

Apple Held Talks to Invest in SoftBank Technology Fund
SoftBank is raising up to $100 billion to invest in disruptive technologies

Apple Inc. has held talks about investing in a $100 billion fund being raised by Japanese internet and telecommunications giant SoftBank Group Corp., a move that would put Silicon Valley cash—and cachet—into what would be the world’s largest technology fund.

Apple and SoftBank have discussed an investment of up to $1 billion, according to people familiar with the matter, who cautioned that nothing has been finalized. The status of the talks couldn’t be learned.

An Apple investment would connect the world’s most valuable company—Apple’s market value is nearly $600 billion—with one of the world’s largest pools of investment capital.


The SoftBank Vision Fund, which aims to launch next year, is targeting $100 billion and is seeded by SoftBank, one of Japan’s largest mobile-phone providers and owner of Sprint Corp. It marks an ambitious effort by SoftBank Chief Executive Masayoshi Son to position his company as a leader in emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things, in which everyday objects such as thermostats, watches and cars are connected online.

By investing, Apple also would hope to gain insight on emerging technologies, the people familiar with the matter said.

Such a move also would reflect a shift in Apple’s investment strategy, which until recently focused on small stakes in young technology companies. Earlier this year, Apple invested $1 billion in Didi Chuxing Technology Co., China’s homegrown ride-sharing competitor to Uber Technologies Inc. SoftBank is also an investor in Didi.

“We’re constantly looking on the outside for great talent and great intellectual property,” Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook said on a conference call in July.

SoftBank itself is investing at least $25 billion in the fund and is finalizing an investment of up to $45 billion from Saudi Arabia’s government fund. The sovereign-wealth fund of Abu Dhabi also is weighing a large investment, according to people familiar with the matter.

Mr. Son said last week after a meeting with President-elect Donald Trump that he plans to invest up to $50 billion of the fund in the U.S.


Apple and SoftBank have business ties stretching back nearly a decade. In 2008, the companies struck a deal to make SoftBank the exclusive iPhone seller in Japan. The partnership drove record sales, helping to make SoftBank Japan’s third-largest cellular carrier by 2011.

Mr. Son has praised late Apple CEO Steve Jobs, whom he once compared to Leonardo da Vinci, and remains close with Mr. Cook. SoftBank distributes iPhones and iPads to its approximately 20,000 employees, and Mr. Son has said he rarely touches a PC.

Mr. Son also is close to Terry Gou, the head of Taiwan’s Foxconn Technology Group, which manufactures most iPhones. After his meeting with Mr. Trump last Tuesday, Mr. Son was photographed carrying a paper with Foxconn’s logo next to SoftBank’s. Earlier this year, SoftBank bought U.K.-based microchip manufacturer ARM Holdings PLC, a major supplier of microprocessors for the iPhone.

>>> US Close Dow +0.20% S&P -0.11% NAsdaq -0.59% Russell -1.08%

Closing Market Summary: S&P 500 Records First Loss Since December 1

The S&P 500 (-0.1%) began the week with a modest downtick to register its first decline in seven sessions. The Nasdaq Composite (-0.6%) underperformed while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.2%) eked out a slim gain.

The new trading week was headlined by news from Vienna, where non-OPEC producers agreed to reduce their output by 558,000 barrels per day. In addition, a Saudi official indicated that his country may implement a larger cut than what was agreed to on November 30. Crude oil surged on the news, notching an overnight high near $54.50/bbl. The energy component pulled back throughout the day, ending its pit session with a 2.6% gain at $52.83/bbl.

Crude oil's surge gave a boost to the energy sector (+0.7%), but the group spent the day in a steady slide from its opening high after being up more than 2.0%. However, energy still fared better than the remaining five cyclical sectors, considering all five spent the day in negative territory.

The industrial sector (-0.4%) was pressured by defense contractors after President-elect Donald Trump criticized another defense contract he deemed excessive. Mr. Trump took aim at the F-35 program, sending shares of aircraft manufacturer Lockheed Martin (LMT 253.22, -6.30) lower by 2.4%. Most defense contractors retreated in sympathy with Lockheed Martin while Boeing (BA 157.16, +0.67) edged up to its record high. The Dow component has climbed 3.3% since being called out by Mr. Trump last Wednesday.

Similar to industrials, consumer discretionary (-0.8%), financials (-0.9%), and technology (-0.4%) spent the day in negative territory. Apparel retailers weighed on the discretionary space while the financial sector pulled back after last week's run. As for technology, the top-weighted group saw losses among large cap names and high-beta chipmakers. The PHLX Semiconductor Index lost 0.8% with Micron (MU 20.01, -0.49) falling 2.4% after the company warned that the memory market may be flooded by China within a few years.

The technology sector contributed to the relative weakness in the Nasdaq, but biotechnology also weighed on the tech-heavy index. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 267.53, -2.14) settled lower by 0.8% with Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN 115.08, -16.99) diving 12.9% after two top executives resigned from the company.

Unlike biotechnology, the broader health care sector (+0.5%) held a modest gain throughout the session. Other countercyclical groups also displayed relative strength with telecom services (+1.1%) and utilities (+1.0%) ending in the lead.

Treasuries retreated overnight, but most of the losses were erased intraday, leaving the 10-yr yield higher by a basis point at 2.48%.

Investor participation was above average as nearly 1.2 billion shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.

Today's economic data was limited to the Treasury Budget statement for November, which showed a deficit of $137 billion while the consensus expected a deficit of $135 billion.

Tomorrow's economic data will be limited to the 8:30 ET release of November Import Prices ex-oil and Export Prices ex-agriculture.

  • Russell 2000 +21.5% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +13.6% YTD
  • S&P 500 +10.4% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite +8.1% YTD

>>> Telecom Italia upgraded to Buy at Gabelli & Co

Telecom Italia upgraded to Buy at Gabelli & Co
Gabelli & Co upgrades TI to Buy from Hold. Firm notes TI has endured an abysmal 2016 in terms of share price performance, with a YTD loss of 34.7%, effectively underperforming the whole of the European telecom sector, which itself has struggled. The share price looks to have decoupled from company fundamentals -- 3Q company results easily exceeded expectations and provided yet further evidence of a sustainable turnaround. They view the pressure on TI shares to stem more from political and macro concerns for Italy as a whole than any legitimate concerns about the company's outlook. They also believe Q2 marked an inflection point with domestic EBITDA growth for the first time since 2009, and see TI moving decisively towards domestic rev stabilization in 2017, another key milestone; €0.98 PMV.

>>> Lockheed Martin Follow Up: Shares down 3% pre-market after President-Elect T

Lockheed Martin Follow Up: Shares down 3% pre-market after President-Elect Trump tweets about cost of F-35 program
  • According to LMT's latest 10K "Our Aeronautics business segment includes our largest program, the F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter, an international multi-role, multi-variant, stealth fighter aircraft. Net sales for the F-35 program represented approximately 23% of our total consolidated net sales from continuing operations for both the quarter and nine months ended September 25, 2016 and 23% of our total consolidated net sales from continuing operations for both the quarter and nine months ended September 27, 2015.
  • Defense names: LMT -2.6%, RTN -1.5%, NOC -1.4%, GD -1.4%, BA -0.6%, LLL

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:
  • OPTT -6.6%
Other news:
  • OPHT -81.8% (reports Phase 3 results for Fovista; No benefit observed upon addition of Fovista to monthly Lucentis regimen)
  • ALXN -13.2% (names David Brennan as Interim CEO effective immediately; new CFO also named; update on audit investigation provided)
  • PTI -8.8% (receives notice of termination from Biogen (BIIB) relating to their collaborative research, development, commercialization and license agreement)
  • CNI -2.5% (cautious report from SIRF)
  • OTEX -1.9% (launches an underwritten public offering of $500 mln of common shares )
  • BIDU -1.1% (in sympathy with Shanghai down 2.5% overnight)
Analyst comments:
  • GFI -1.4% (downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts)
  • MDXG -1.4% (initiated with a Sell at UBS)