WSJ : Valeant, in Push for Cash, Looks to Sell Stomach-Drug Business

Valeant, in Push for Cash, Looks to Sell Stomach-Drug Business
Deal to sell Salix unit for $10 billion would reverse acquisition made in March 2015

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. is in advanced talks to sell a big stomach-drug business to Japan’s Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. for about $10 billion, a move seen easing pressure on Valeant over its hefty debt load.
The companies could reach a deal for Salix Pharmaceuticals Ltd., which Valeant bought just a year-and-a-half ago, in the coming weeks, people familiar with the matter said. The purchase price would include about $8.5 billion in cash and future royalty payments to Valeant, the people said.
There is no guarantee the companies will reach a deal and, indeed, there is another unnamed potential bidder in the mix, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Should Valeant strike a deal, it would allow the company to largely pay back its bank lenders, removing a big area of concern for investors ever since the drugmaker became embroiled in an accounting scandal last year. Valeant has told investors it would work to reduce its debt load, but the company was expected to do so through a series of smaller steps.
It would also likely allow Valeant’s new chief executive, Joseph Papa, to focus on rebuilding Valeant’s core franchises in skin and eye drugs, which include Bausch & Lomb brands, have been struggling.
Salix makes treatments for stomach disorders like traveler’s diarrhea and irritable bowel syndrome, or IBS.
For Takeda, the purchase would come after it lost out on earlier attempts to buy Salix and deliver big-selling gastrointestinal drugs it has been seeking to bolster its lineup of stomach remedies.
At the time of the Salix deal, the Canadian drug company was riding high on a strategy of acquiring companies and consolidating their research-and-development budgets.
But then Valeant’s business tactics and accounting came under intense scrutiny, leading to government investigations and the departure of its CEO, Michael Pearson, and other executives.
Valeant’ highflying stock plunged on fears it wouldn’t be able to keep up its prior pace of acquisition-led growth and that its $30 billion of debt is too much. Investors have been particularly focused on the roughly $12 billion Valeant owes banks, given that the vast majority of its $19 billion in public bonds don’t start coming due before 2020. Valeant took on roughly half its current debt load to pay for Salix after it won a heated bidding war for the company.
The company—with a market value of about $6 billion Tuesday afternoon after its stock dropped more than 90% from its highs in 2015—has been working with a number of banks to explore sales of various assets that are also progressing, the people said. Valeant preferred to sell other parts of its business, but Salix was viewed as the most attractive asset for rivals, they said.
Even with a price of less than the $11 billion it paid for Salix in April 2015, a deal could hand Valeant a loss it could use to offset gains from other asset sales.

Following The Wall Street Journal’s report of the Salix talks, Valeant shares jumped 34% to $23.86.
Takeda, which has been seeking gastrointestinal treatments, swooped in with an offer to start the talks. Takeda, Japan’s largest drugmaker by revenue, vied for Salix in the previous auction, and combined on an abortive offer for all of Valeant with private-equity TPG, The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this year.
Salix would give Takeda a drug for IBS called Xifaxan that Valeant had predicted could have $1 billion in sales this year. Sales haven't done as well as some analysts expected, however. Many Salix sales representatives left the company, and Xifaxan has faced fierce competition from a competing drug, Viberzi, from Allergan PLC. Meanwhile, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. also is working on a generic version of Xifaxan.
Takeda is likely betting that its sales force, which already sells products like a fast-growing ulcerative-colitis drug called Entyvio, could help increase sales of Xifaxan and other Salix products.
Like other Japanese drug companies, Takeda is seeking growth in the U.S. and other lucrative markets to offset pressures in its home country. The Japanese company has singled out stomach treatments as a priority. In March, its U.S. unit said it was reorganizing to focus on gastrointestinal disorders, along with a few other conditions.

(GS) VIX patterns around past elections

Typical VIX level on election day: 17.6

The VIX has a history back to 1990, which covers six U.S. presidential elections. The median closing VIX level on election day has been 17.6. With

exactly one week to go prior to the U.S. presidential election, how is the VIX trading relative to its typical pre-election pattern? After a four point rise

over the last week, the VIX closed out October at 17.1 and now stands just below its typical election-day level. The VIX has been rising despite one of

the lowest levels of S&P 500 realized volatility recorded for an October.

 

Isn’t October supposed to be scary? October 2016 was one of the lowest volatility Octobers on record at 6.6.

Two pieces of post-Halloween vol candy:

 

- S&P 500 realized volatility during the calendar month of October was 6.6, the lowest for an October in 23 years (1993).

- The average VIX level of 14.6 in October ranked as the 4th lowest for the calendar month of October back to 1990.

 

The fact that investors are purchasing broad based macro hedges ahead of the election, even though the market isn’t moving, is causing a large spread between implied volatility (the market price of option hedges) and realized volatility (how much the market is actually moving).

 

VIX – S&P 500 1m realized volatility spread is elevated

S&P 500 10-day and 1m trailing realized volatility measures stood at 5.4 and 6.6 as of the end of October. That puts the VIX versus 1m realized volatility spread at 10.5 vol points (17.1 vs. 6.6). That is a 95th percentile ranking back to 1990 and 2.6x higher than the average spread of 4.1 points back to 1990.

 

The dislocation may close quickly post election

The wide dislocation between the VIX and realized volatility could result in a quick drop in the VIX and a rise in the S&P 500 post election if election uncertainty declines, as we expect.

 

(TechCrunch) Instagram tests shoppable photo tags

Instagram tests shoppable photo tags

Instagram wants you to shop without always having to interrupt your scrolling with a browser window. That’s why today it will start showing shoppable tags on photos from 20 retail brands like Kate Spade and JackThreads to iOS users in the US.
The retailers tag products in their photos, which are hidden behind a “Tap to view products” button. After selecting their product of choice, users see an in-app details page with a specific product’s price, description, additional photos, and a “Shop Now” button to buy it on the web.
You can think of shoppable photos as Facebook Instant Articles for products. Since the product pages load inside Instagram, they show up quicker than immediately getting booted to a browser. And if the details don’t entice a shopper, they can swiftly tap back to their beloved feed.
Instagram won’t take a cut of purchases, and instead plans to monetize the product by later allowing brands to pay to show their shoppable photos to people who don’t follow them, says Instagram’s VP of monetization James Quarles. Instagram now has 500,000 advertisers and is finally earning some serious cash four years after Facebook acquired it for nearly $1 billion.
Purchasing products entirely inside of Instagram, as Facebook is now trying with chatbots, isn’t something the company is working on yet. That might put it at a slight disadvantage to Pinterest, which is testing Buyable Pins with in-line checkout flow. But both are emerging as powerful discovery mechanisms for users who aren’t sure what they want to buy yet and therefore aren’t just searching for it on Amazon.
Eventually Instagram wants to add a “Save” feature so you can bookmark product posts as you browse and come back to them. Users aren’t always ready to buy on impulse. That’s why unlike Instagram’s existing product ads that immediately link to checkout sites, these shoppable photos give you time to compare different color options and the price so you have true intent if you go to buy.


Facebook’s VP of monetization James Quarles tells me shoppable tags will eventually expand to video posts, photo carousels, and other countries. Instagram hopes to open the product to more brands over time, and allow them to generate their own product pages instead of manually sending Instagram’s team the materials as it works now.
Thanks to shoppable tags, brands won’t have to resort to clumsy “check link in bio” captions on their photos, since Instagram doesn’t allow links in organic posts, and only lets profiles include a single URL. The full list of test launch partners is Abercombie&Fitch BaubleBar, Coach, Hollister, JackThreads, J.Crew, Kate Spade, Levi’s Brand, Lulus, Macy’s, Michael Kors, MVMT Watches, Tory Burch, Warby Parker, and Shopbop.
The design of shoppable photos is wisely lightweight. Instead of making product tags immediately visible, they’re only revealed if you tap the little tag button, so they don’t ruin the beauty of images. They don’t feel as intrusive as the buy buttons Facebook and Twitter have tested. The product was built off of the emergent behavior of celebrities tagging the products their seen with, which often come from their sponsors.
And shoppable photos match user behaviors as well. According to a study run by Instagram, 60% of Instagrammers say they learn about products and services on the app, while 75% say they take actions like visiting sites, searching, or telling a friend after being influenced by a post on Instagram.
Now they won’t have to close the app, open the browser, and track down the product they were just looking at. The company did focus groups in LA and Chicago, where Quarles says it found that the main gripe of shoppers on Instagram was “I want to learn more, but it’s very hard to go do a web search from another app. The product details are hard to find.”
Making it easier for users to get shopping value from Instagram could keep it on people’s homescreens. Meanwhile, brands might eventually pay to show their shoppable photos to more users, or buy ads to get more followers who’ll see their products organically in the feed. It’s been obvious for years that Instagram would embrace shopping, but the execution demonstrates its dedication to prioritizing a clean user experience so its community keeps growing.