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It’s two years since the European Central Bank launched its giant bond-purchase program, known as quantitative easing, and its efforts finally appear to be bearing fruit. Inflation in the 19-nation eurozone has suddenly jumped to 2%, slightly above the ECB’s target, after hovering around zero for years. That has prompted calls for a policy reversal from Frankfurt, particularly in inflation-averse Germany. Investors will listen closely to ECB President Mario Draghi’s news conference on Thursday for signs for the road ahead.

Stand its ground. The ECB only recently expanded its QE program by a half-trillion euros, and economists say it’s probably too soon to change course. The recent jump in inflation is mainly due to higher energy prices, and that effect is likely to fade later in the year. Crucially, the region faces a tense political calendar over the coming months, and the ECB has indicated it wants to keep a steady hand on the economic tiller. “Another few quarters of macroeconomic data and knowing the outcome of the French elections are probably necessary for the ECB to start to change its tone,” said Vincent Juvyns, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

It’s improving. Unemployment is down, inflation is up and the bloc’s growth rate is currently outpacing that of other major advanced economies, according to financial-data firm IHS Markit. The ECB’s new economic forecasts, to be published on Thursday, are expected to show upward revisions to inflation for this year and next. Still, average data mask wide differences across the region: While northern European economies are accelerating, some in the south are struggling with weak productivity growth and a mountain of nonperforming loans.

Within the central bank, policy makers are divided over whether the current level of stimulus is too strong for a recovering economy. Some top officials have suggested it may soon be time to start tapering, or winding down, the QE program. But investors are already tense ahead of elections in the Netherlands and France, which could see strong gains by anti-euro parties such as France’s National Front. The spread between yields on safe German bunds and government bonds in France and Germany has been widening for months. Against that backdrop, any public discussion of tapering looks premature.

While policy makers might shy away from any major policy changes, they might decide to send investors a signal that the days of ever-greater monetary stimulus are over. To do so, they could tweak the language of their policy statement to indicate that the risks to economic growth have diminished, or drop a commitment to accelerate QE if needed. The pace of the ECB’s bond purchases is set to fall from €80 billion ($84.52 billion) a month to €60 billion, starting in April.

The ECB has carefully left open the option of a fresh rate cut, ever since investors took fright a year ago at Mr. Draghi’s suggestion that rates had reached bottom. With inflation now above target, however, that pledge looks outdated. Yves Mersch, who sits on the ECB’s six-member executive board, suggested last month it should be dropped for the sake of the bank’s credibility. Still, other ECB officials have warned against even that small change. “The ECB wants to approach any policy shift with great caution,” said Marco Valli, an economist with UniCredit in Milan.