>>> What to look at today - 14th of August 2025

The yen rose the most in almost two weeks after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expected Japan to raise interest rates to tame inflation. Asian stocks declined after a three-day rally. Japan’s currency advanced as much as 0.7% versus the dollar as Bessent said the Bank of Japan is falling behind the curve in addressing inflation and he expected it to hike rates. A gauge of the dollar fell for a third day as Bessent also pushed for the Federal Reserve to ease policy. Other Asian currencies such as the Indonesian rupiah and Malaysian ringgit also strengthened. The stronger yen sent the Nikkei-225 Stock Average down 1.4%, dragging the region’s equity gauge lower. Technology shares declined while Chinese indexes advanced. Bitcoin reached an all-time high and gold edged up. Equity-index futures for the US dipped 0.1%. Bessent’s remarks on the BOJ stand out as a rare instance of admonishing policy decisions by a foreign central bank. In an interview with Bloomberg Surveillance Wednesday, he also added to the external pressure on the Fed by making his most explicit demand yet for US policymakers to execute a cycle of cuts. Bessent — who suggested the Fed’s benchmark rate ought to be at least 1.5 percentage points lower than it is now — said officials might have cut rates if they’d been aware of the revised data on the labor market that came out a couple of days after the latest meeting.  The Fed’s Open Market Committee last month led by Chair Jerome Powell kept its benchmark in a target range of 4.25% to 4.5%. A report on producer prices due Thursday will offer insights on additional categories that feed directly into the Fed’s preferred price gauge — which is scheduled for later this month. On Japan, Bessent said the BOJ is going to be hiking rates as the country needs to get “inflation problem under control.” In the latest Bloomberg survey of economists watching the BOJ, around 42% of respondents said they expected a hike in October, with a third expecting a move in January. The BOJ is expected to stand pat when it next sets policy on Sept. 19. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump, who has also criticized the Fed for not easing rates, said he may name the next central bank chair “a little bit early” and added that he was down to three or four potential candidates as he looks for a successor to Powell. In Asia, technology shares dragged with MSCI’s technology index falling 1.3%. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and SK Hynix Inc. led chip shares lower while Tencent Holdings gained after its results beat estimates. Elsewhere, geopolitical tensions remained on edge after the US president warned he would impose “very severe consequences” if Vladimir Putin didn’t agree to a ceasefire agreement later this week, following a call with European leaders ahead of his meeting with the Russian president. US After Hours CSCO +0.8% ticks higher on earnings; DLO +21.1% also higher on earnings; IBTA -21.6%, NOA -16.4%, COHR -16.1% lower on earnings

Nikkei -1.33% Hang Seng -0.41% CSI +0.25% Shanghai -0.09% Shenzen -0.73%

Eur$ 1.1704 CNH 7.1723 CNY 7.1718 JPY 146.40 GBP 1.3577 CHF 0.8052 RUB 79.5746 TRY 40.7775 WTI$ 62.90 +0.38% Gold 3,360 +0.15% BTC 123,124 +0.14% ETH 4,754 +0.80%

S&P -0.16% Nasdaq -0.18% EuroStoxx -0.19% FTSE +0.05% Dax -0.16% SMI -0.04%

Macro :
- Bitcoin Rises to Record as Investors Snap Up Riskier Assets
- DeepSeek’s New AI Model Launch Delayed by Chip Issues: FT
- Tariff Confusion Drives Record Volumes at Los Angeles Port

13 Filings :
- Baupost Buys Fiserv, Boosts Alphabet: 13F

Keep an eye on :
- ADYEN NA : Adyen 1H Net Rev. Misses Est., Walks Back Growth Outlook
- ANTO LN : Antofagasta 1H Ebitda Beats Estimates
- AAPL US : Apple’s AI Push to Hinge on Robots, Lifelike Siri, Home Security
- AUTO NO : Autostore 2Q Adjusted Ebitda Beats Estimates
- BIDU US : Baidu Eyes Self-Driving Car Tests in HK Old Airport Area: Daily
- GBF GY : Bilfinger 2Q Sales EU1.35B Vs. EU1.30B Y/y
- BA US : Boeing Defense Union Asks Lawmakers to Intervene in Strike
- BORR US : Borr Drilling Sees FY Adjusted Ebitda About $470M, Est. $466.3M
- BLSH US : Bullish IPO Mints Two Billionaires at Thiel-Backed Crypto Firm *BULLISH SHARES CLOSE HIGHER BY 84% IN TRADING DEBUT
- CARLB DC : *CARLSBERG SEES FY ORGANIC OPER PROFIT +3% TO +5%, EST. +3.98%
- CNA LN : Centrica Frontrunner to Buy National Grid’s LNG Terminal: FT
- CWC GY : Cewe Stiftung 2Q Ebit Loss EU4.0M Vs. Loss EU2.9M Y/y
- CSCO US :
- DNB NO : Norway Enacts EEA Rules on Changes to Net Stable Funding Ratio
- EDPL PL : EDP Renovaveis Sells Stake in Italian Solar Portfolio to Encavis
- EMBRACB SS : Embracer 1Q Net Sales SEK3.36B
- ECV GY : EDP Renovaveis Sells Stake in Italian Solar Portfolio to Encavis
- FAST NA : Fastned 1H Oper Ebitda EU17.9M Vs. EU14.7M Y/y
- HLAG GY : Hapag-Lloyd Narrows FY Ebitda Forecast
- GLJ GY : Grenke 2Q Net Income EU16.0M Vs. EU25.2M Y/y
- HHFA GY : Hamburger Hafen Narrows FY Ebit Forecast
- HBI US : Gildan to Buy Underwear Maker Hanesbrands for $2.2 Billion
- HFG GY : HelloFresh 2Q Revenue Misses Estimates
- HEX NO : Hexagon Composites 2Q Ebitda Misses Estimates
- HOLMB SS : Holmen 2Q Net Sales Miss Estimates
- IBTA US : *IBOTTA SHARES SINK 23% POSTMARKET AFTER REVENUE MISSES ESTIMATE
- ITM LN : ITM Power FY Revenue Beats Estimates
- KESKOB FH : Kesko July Comparable Sales +5.4%
- LXS GY : Lanxess 2Q Sales Miss Estimates, Lanxess Cuts FY Adjusted Ebitda Forecast
- 992 HK : Lenovo Shares Fall As 1Q Result Beat; Cloud Loss May Hurt Margin
- HLUNB DC : Lundbeck 2Q Revenue Matches Estimates
- MANTA FH : Mandatum 2Q Pretax Profit Misses Estimates
- MB IM : Mediobanca Rebuffs Caltagirone Criticism of Banca Generali Deal
- MEKKO FH : Marimekko 2Q Adjusted EPS Misses Estimates
- META US : Meta’s Map Feature Is Dangerous for Children, Blumenthal Says
- MLP GY : MLP 1H Ebit EU42.7M Vs. EU48.7M Y/y
- AERO SW : Montana Aerospace 1H Net Sales Meet Estimates
- NETC DC : Netcompany 2Q Revenue Matches Estimates, Netcompany to Initiate Share Buyback Program of up to DKK500M
- NFLSK DC : Nilfisk 2Q Revenue Meets Estimates
- DNORD DC : Norden 2Q Ebit $59.5M
- ORSTED DC : Danish Deputy Prime Minister Regrets Not Selling Orsted: Borsen
- PEAN SW : Peach Property to Get €410M new Financing From Castlelake
- PAH3 GY : Porsche in Talks to Co-Anchor €500 Million Europe Defense Fund
- PRTC LN : PureTech Health Says Phase 2 VE202 Trial Didn’t Meet Endpoint
- RNK LN : Rank Group FY Adjusted EPS Beats Estimates
- RWE GY : RWE Earnings Drop on Weaker Trading, Power Generation Results RWE Maintains FY Adjusted Ebitda Forecast
- SAN FP : Sanofi’s Rilzabrutinib Gets Orphan Designation in EU
- SIP BB : Sipef 1H Palm Oil Output 208k Metric Tons Vs. 175k Y/y
- SHUR BB : Shurgard 2Q Property Operating Revenue EU111.5M Vs. EU95.9M Y/y
- SQN SW : Swissquote Sees FY Net Revenue CHF700M, Saw CHF675M
- SREN SW : Swiss Re 1H Net Income Beats Estimates
- TLX GY : Talanx FY Net Income Forecast Beats Estimates
- 700 HK : Tencent Rises as AI Spurs Fastest Growth Since 2021: Street Wrap
- TSLA US : Tesla Hints at NYC Ride-Hailing With New Autopilot Job Posting
- TKA GY : Thyssen Cuts FY Sales Outlook, Specifies FY Adj. Ebit Guidance
- UBSG SW : UBS Set to Miss Job Cut Target After Credit Suisse Takeover: FT
- VEI NO : Veidekke 2Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- WAC GY : Wacker Neuson 1H Ebit EU56.1M Vs. EU83.8M Y/y
- ZEAL DC : Zealand Pharma 2Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- ZVRA US : Zevra Falls Most Since 2023 Amid Olpruva Headwinds: Street Wrap
- FHZN SW : Zurich Airport July Passenger Traffic +4.8%

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 14th of August 2025

>>> Up
* DiaSorin Raised to Outperform at RBC
* FedEx Raised to Buy at DBS Bank; PT $275
* Kingspan Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 89 euros
* Martela Raised to Reduce at Inderes; PT 85 euro cents
* PVA TePla Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 28 euros

>>> Down
* Balfour Beatty Cut to Hold at Investec; PT 600 pence
* Home Depot Cut to Hold at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $415
* Li Auto ADRs Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $28
* Nyab Cut to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 8.25 kronor
* Odfjell Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 125 kroner
* Spie Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 52.50 euros

>>> Initiation
* ArcelorMittal ADRs Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $33
* LondonMetric Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 230 pence
* New Fortress Energy Cut to Hold at Johnson Rice; PT $4
* Nucor Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $145
* PKO Reinstated Buy at William O'Neil
* Regeneron Reinstated Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $890
* Solstad Maritime Holding Rated New Buy at Fearnley; PT 30 kroner
* Vestas ADRs Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $6.80

>>> Call
* European Banks’ Shares Have Further Upside, Targets Boosted: RBC
--> Among PT changes:
  • Deutsche Bank increased to €34 from €29, the highest among analysts tracked by Bloomberg
  • UBS increased to CHF34 from CHF31.5
  • BNP Paribas boosted to €95 from €86
  • Societe Generale boosted to €62 from €55

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Talanx (TLX TH) +1.6%
    • Talanx FY Net Income Forecast Beats Estimates
  • Rolls-Royce (RRU TH) +1.6%
  • Wienerberger (WIB TH) +1.2%
  • Bilfinger (GBF TH) +0.9%
    • Bilfinger 2Q Sales EU1.35B Vs. EU1.30B Y/y
  • Glencore (8GC TH) -1%
  • Redcare Pharmacy NV (RDC TH) -1%
  • Stora Enso (ENUR TH) -1%
  • Sartorius (SRT3 TH) -1.1%
  • Bavarian Nordic (BV3 TH) -1.5%
  • EssilorLuxottica (ESL TH) -1.6%
  • RWE (RWE TH) -1.8%
    • RWE Earnings Drop on Weaker Trading, Power Generation Results
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) -2.5%
    • Thyssenkrupp Cuts Outlook as Loss Deepens on Weak Demand, Prices
  • Lanxess (LXS TH) -3.2%
    • Lanxess Cuts FY Adjusted Ebitda Forecast
  • Adyen (1N8 TH) -5.5%
    • *ADYEN NOW SEES SLIGHT FY NET REV ACCELERATION AS UNLIKELY

WSJ : Trump Order Seeks to Cut Regulations for Space Industry

Trump Order Seeks to Cut Regulations for Space Industry
President calls on officials to ease permitting rules for rocket flights as more companies want to launch them

  • President Trump signed an order to accelerate rocket launches and facilitate spaceport construction.
  • Space industry leaders have expressed frustration with regulators, anticipating changes from the Trump administration.
  • The order aims to streamline environmental reviews for new spaceports, potentially facing opposition from local communities.

President Trump issued an executive order that aims to speed up rocket launching and opens the door to more spaceport developments.

Many space industry executives have been frustrated by the pace at which regulators have moved to permit launches and other space operations, and had anticipated that the Trump administration would try to address the issue. Those expectations were fed by the alliance between Trump and Elon Musk, chief executive of SpaceX who advised Trump before their high-profile split.

Musk has criticized regulators over the years, including last fall when he said they were slowing the company’s progress with Starship. Texas-based SpaceX is developing the experimental rocket for a range of future missions.

The Federal Aviation Administration oversees private rocket launches as part of its work managing U.S. airspace. Current and former FAA officials have said the agency is committed to working with space companies to coordinate launches and re-entries of private spacecraft back to Earth from orbit.

Currently, SpaceX launches more rockets more often than any other company, meaning the order to speed up the licensing of flights should help it. But other launchers, including Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin and United Launch Alliance, are also poised to begin flying their new rockets more often in the years ahead.

Trump’s order, signed on Wednesday, also seeks to make it easier to build new spaceports, where launches and other operations could take place, by streamlining environmental reviews.

Most rocket launches from the U.S. take place from the Cape Canaveral area on Florida’s east coast or from Vandenberg Space Force Base in Southern California. Orchestrating launches is a growing challenge for rocket executives and officials, generating efforts by other spaceports to handle some of that traffic.

Many of those efforts are nascent, however, and creating new facilities would likely face pushback from neighbors to the sites and environmental advocates.

Dave Cavossa, president of the Commercial Space Federation, a trade group, said the order would strengthen the industry by cutting red tape while maintaining a commitment to public safety.

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Porsche SE (PAH3 TH) -0.1%
    • Porsche in Talks to Co-Anchor €500 Million Europe Defense Fund
  • RWE (RWE TH) -1.8%
    • RWE Earnings Drop on Weaker Trading, Power Generation Results
MDAX:
  • Talanx (TLX TH) +1.5%
    • Talanx FY Net Income Forecast Beats Estimates
  • RENK Group (R3NK TH) +1.3%
  • Redcare Pharmacy NV (RDC TH) -1.2%
  • Lanxess (LXS TH) -2.6%
    • Lanxess Cuts FY Adjusted Ebitda Forecast
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) -2.6%
    • Thyssenkrupp Cuts Outlook as Loss Deepens on Weak Demand, Prices
  • HelloFresh (HFG TH) -6%
    • HelloFresh Lowers Ebitda Guidance on Impact From FX: Street Wrap
SDAX:
  • Douglas AG (DOU TH) +6.2%
    • EQS-News: DOUGLAS Group achieves solid growth and confirms guidance
  • Grenke (GLJ TH) +4.5%
    • Grenke 2Q Net Income EU16.0M Vs. EU25.2M Y/y
  • Adesso SE (ADN1 TH) +4.2%
  • Eckert & Ziegler (EUZ TH) +1.8%
  • Energiekontor (EKT TH) +1.4%
  • Kloeckner (KCO TH) -1%

WSJ : U.S. Steel Explosion Presents Challenge to Nippon’s Investment Plans

U.S. Steel Explosion Presents Challenge to Nippon’s Investment Plans
Crews work to restore operations after deaths of two employees

  • A deadly explosion at U.S. Steel’s Clairton plant is testing the resolve of Nippon Steel.
  • The explosion reduced U.S. Steel’s ability to produce coke, a key steelmaking input for its Mon Valley Works complex.
  • Nippon Steel pledged $2.2 billion for upgrades at Mon Valley by 2028, though the to-do list didn’t include repairs to Clairton’s coke ovens.

Nippon Steel 5401 -0.60%decrease; red down pointing triangle promised to spend $14 billion to keep U.S. Steel’s aging plants humming for decades. A deadly blast at a mill near Pittsburgh will test the Japanese steelmaker’s resolve through a costly crisis.

Crews are continuing to clean up and restore operations at the Clairton, Pa., plant where an explosion Monday killed two workers and injured 10 others. U.S. Steel officials said the blast reduced the company’s ability to produce coke—a key steelmaking input—at its Mon Valley Works complex.

Jim Borkowski, an employee with 21 years of service, was among those transporting injured workers from the wreckage. “It was chaos; we ran to help whoever and do whatever we could,” he said.

Mon Valley was a focal point of Nippon Steel’s negotiations with President Trump. Two months ago he approved the purchase of U.S. Steel after the Tokyo-based company significantly increased its investment commitments.

Nippon Steel pledged $2.2 billion for upgrades at Mon Valley by 2028, projects that would maintain steelmaking at the mill for years. The to-do list didn’t include major repairs to Clairton’s coke ovens. It will likely cost the company millions of dollars to return the site to normal operations.

The Clairton coking plant—the nation’s largest—has dealt with operational concerns in the past. An explosion at the plant in 2010 injured 20 workers. A catastrophic fire on Christmas Eve 2018 knocked out the plant’s emissions-control system for months afterward.

In February, two employees were sent to the hospital when gases ignited at a coke plant battery, which Allegheny County officials said caused an audible boom and surge in airborne pollutants.

Nippon Steel said work on the planned replacement of the rolling line to make sheet steel would continue, but added, “Our primary focus remains on our employees at our Clairton plant.”

U.S. Steel Chief Executive Dave Burritt said Tuesday that he spoke with Nippon Steel executives following the accident and said they are committed to cooperating with government investigators to determine a cause for the explosion.

“We will take every step necessary to keep our people safe,” Burritt said during a briefing with reporters. “We wouldn’t have done the deal with Nippon Steel if we weren’t absolutely sure that we would have an enduring future.”

U.S. Steel deferred some maintenance and upgrade projects for years in response to a long stretch of financial losses before 2020.

In the months before the deal closed, Nippon Steel Vice Chairman Takahiro Mori visited the Mon Valley complex several times to confirm the company’s interest in preserving American jobs and investing in the mill. The steelmaker later dispatched teams of engineers and other employees from Japan to begin work on the plant upgrades.

The cause of the explosion remains under investigation. Just before the blast, workers were preparing to do routine maintenance on the batteries of ovens that bake coal into coke.

Coke is essential for producing molten iron at U.S. Steel’s blast furnaces in Pennsylvania and Indiana. As part of the coking process, flammable compounds, such as methane, and other impurities are extracted from the coal under heat and pressure, leaving a carbon product behind.

The Clairton plant can produce 3.6 million tons of coke across its six batteries of ovens. The explosion knocked out two batteries, and two more near the blast area were temporarily taken down for repairs.

Emissions from coke plants have been a target for environmental groups for years, especially in Pittsburgh, which has been a hub of steel production for over a century.

U.S. Steel last year settled a lawsuit brought by environmental groups over emissions that stemmed from the 2018 Clairton plant fire. The settlement with the groups and the county included $19.5 million in coke-oven upgrades and $17.5 million in other plant improvements.

The company has said it regretted the incidents and believed the settlement would benefit communities near the mill.

Experts in the litigation provided descriptions of the Clairton plant’s condition.

In court filings, an engineering expert for environmental groups described plant inspections as “sporadic” and said that repairs were delayed by budget constraints. The expert cited an internal company email that mentioned examples of corrosion that included water-supply lines that were rotted “Coke-can thin.”

Do you think Nippon Steel will follow through with promised investments in U.S. Steel facilities? Join the conversation below.A county health department official described the plant in a 2020 deposition as “one of the most decrepit facilities I’ve ever seen in my nearly 30 years of work.”

Borkowski, 40, who works as a union-safety representative, said he thinks the company stays on top of maintenance “for the most part,” but acknowledged that the company needs promised investments from Nippon Steel.

“It’s an aging plant,” said Borkowski, a third-generation steelworker. “I just hope they stick to their word, and I hope they invest the money on the Mon Valley.”

FT : More than 100 big supermarkets at risk of closure from UK business rates ri

More than 100 big supermarkets at risk of closure from UK business rates rise
Dozens of larger stores will become unprofitable as a result of the higher property charges

More than 100 large stores run by the UK’s top supermarket chains are at risk of closure because of government plans to raise business rates, which would drive up costs for a sector already bearing the brunt of increased employment taxes.

Roughly 50 of Sainsbury’s 600 supermarkets will become unprofitable as a result of the higher property charges, according to people in the industry. For Tesco, the UK’s largest private sector employer, the changes would tip tens of stores into the red, according to a senior figure at the company.

Ministers are planning to increase business rates on properties with a rateable value of more than £500,000 — the top 1 per cent of retail stores.

The intention is that this will fund the government’s plan to change a temporary discount for smaller retail and hospitality businesses, those trading from premises with a rateable value of less than £500,000, into a permanent one. 

Sainsbury’s and Tesco, which generated net profits of £420mn and £1.2bn respectively last year, may be better able to weather the impact than their more heavily indebted rivals, Asda and Morrisons.

The changes will threaten the viability of 30 Morrisons supermarkets, out of a total of almost 500, although one insider said this would not necessarily mean those outlets closed as a result. Meanwhile, almost 90 per cent of Asda’s roughly 600 supermarkets would be affected by the business rate increases, said a person familiar with the company.

Supermarket executives have also been irked that Labour’s plans to increase rates will not impact Aldi and Lidl, which typically operate smaller, less valuable stores. 

Property experts at Colliers estimate less than 10 per cent of Lidl’s stores will be impacted by the proposed changes.

Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda and Morrisons all declined to comment.

Last year Morrisons chief executive Rami Baitiéh urged the government to stagger the “avalanche” of costs bearing down on retailers.

The sector, which employs 2.8mn people, has been hit disproportionately by rises in employers’ national insurance and the minimum wage. The new business rates levy for larger stores, which employ one in three retail workers, will be announced at the autumn Budget.

Business rates have long been a bugbear for bricks-and-mortar retailers, who complain that the property-based tax unfairly penalises them vis-à-vis their online counterparts.

The government, which has pledged to fundamentally reform the business rates system, contends that its proposals will increase the business rates take from the majority of the distribution centres used by “online giants” such as Amazon.

Industry lobby groups argue the government’s focus on large stores will penalise supermarkets and department stores, which can both help drive footfall to the high street.

Ken Murphy, chief executive of Tesco, said last month that “the reforms as proposed do not meet the original intention to rebalance the burden of business rates to be fairer and support town centres”.

“We are creating a fairer business rates system to protect the high street, support investment and level the playing field,” the Treasury said.

“We intend to introduce permanently lower tax rates for retail, hospitality, and leisure properties from next year. Unlike the current relief for these properties, there will be no cash cap on the new lower tax rates.”

FT : Initial tax data allays fears of non-dom exodus from UK

Initial tax data allays fears of non-dom exodus from UK
Officials had expected one in four with trusts to leave Britain after status was abolished

Fears of a massive non-dom exodus from the UK have been allayed by initial tax data, which suggests that total numbers leaving the country are in line with — or even below — official forecasts.

HM Revenue & Customs payroll data has found no evidence to suggest more non-doms left Britain in response to Rachel Reeves’ 2024 Budget than official predictions, according to people briefed on the findings.

The findings will be a relief to the chancellor after a series of surveys — based mainly on anecdotal evidence — suggested her tax policies had prompted huge numbers of wealthy individuals to flee the country.

Reeves was told by the Office for Budget Responsibility to expect 25 per cent of non-doms with trusts to quit the country in response to the crackdown on their tax status, which began under the Conservatives and intensified when Reeves became chancellor last year.

HMRC data now suggests this prediction is broadly correct, the people said — removing pressure on Reeves to reverse a Labour policy that is forecast to raise more than £4bn in 2026-27 and almost £6bn the following year.

“With all the things going on in the world, Britain looks like a pretty safe and stable place,” said a government official. “We’ve got a lot to market ourselves on.”

However, advisers to the wealthiest non-domiciled individuals have nevertheless reported significant departures. Robert Brodrick, a partner at law firm Payne Hicks Beach, said “the majority” of his non-dom clients who were paying or had previously paid the £90,000 annual fee to use the tax-favourable “remittance basis” had left the country. 

Provisional HMRC figures show there were 60,700 non-doms — people resident in Britain but with their permanent home outside the country — in the 2023-24 tax year. This was down 30 per cent on 2014-15.

Up until April, when the status was scrapped, these non-doms paid UK taxes on any UK income and capital gains, but this was not levied on foreign income or gains, unless brought into the country.

The OBR estimated in January that about one in 10 non-doms without trusts would leave the UK because of the decision to abolish the status, and end the ability of non-doms to shield foreign assets held in an offshore trust from inheritance tax. Among those with trusts, the estimate was that one in four would leave. 

Some of those briefed on the early HMRC data said the figures suggested that fewer people were leaving than projected by the OBR, while others said the departures were in line with forecasts.

One Reeves ally said: “We’ve seen no evidence that there’s been a change in the non-dom profile beyond what the OBR forecast.” This will be a relief to the chancellor, who is under pressure to fill a fiscal hole that some economists say is at least £20bn.

HMRC was drawing on payroll data, which businesses send to the tax office every month, to determine the trend of non-dom departures.

Most non-doms receive UK employment or pension income, meaning they are captured in official Pay as You Earn data. Tax officials can therefore track whether they have left the UK because they would have fallen off the latest PAYE figures.

Tax experts also said the Treasury would have more confidence in using payroll data now because more than 120 days had passed since the start of the tax year. In most cases, anyone who did not want to be considered UK tax resident would have left before spending 120 days of the current tax year, which began on April 6.

However non-doms who do not work in the UK may not be featured in the PAYE data, and HMRC will not have a full understanding of exactly how many have fled the reforms until January 2027 when individuals submit tax returns for the 2025-26 year. 

Reeves has considered retreating on one element of her non-dom tax reforms relating to inheritance tax, according to government officials, but will wait for full data to arrive before deciding whether to do so.

The decision to expose worldwide assets to IHT at 40 per cent has been highly contentious, and had sparked warnings of an exodus of wealthy people from the UK.

A widely cited report published in association with Henley & Partners, a consultancy that markets passports and residency permit schemes, was criticised for claiming that 16,500 millionaires would quit the country. Critics said it relied heavily on data from LinkedIn, which is not reliable for finding someone’s tax residence.

Financial Times analysis of Companies House filings this month showed a rise in the number of company directors, which would include both former non-doms and UK-domiciled people, who had left the UK since the Budget.

Some 3,790 directors reported leaving the UK between November 2024 and July this year, from 2,712 in the same period a year earlier. Dubai, which has no individual income or capital gains tax, has been a main beneficiary.

The Treasury said it was right for people who made their home in Britain to pay taxes here, but added: “The UK remains a highly attractive place to live and invest. Our main capital gains tax rate is lower than any other G7 European country and our new residence-based regime is simpler and more attractive than the previous one.”

FT : Saudi Arabia’s PIF makes $8bn writedown on value of flagship megaprojects

Saudi Arabia’s PIF makes $8bn writedown on value of flagship megaprojects
Developments such as futuristic Neom hit by budget overruns and lower oil prices

Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund has cut $8bn from the value of its holdings in the kingdom’s gigaprojects, including its flagship development Neom, as efforts to transform the domestic economy are hit by budget overruns and lower oil prices.

The Public Investment Fund, the main driver for Saudi Arabia’s economic transformation efforts, said its investments in Saudi gigaprojects were worth $56bn (SR211bn) at the end of 2024, 12.4 per cent lower than a year earlier. The writedown is equivalent to $8bn.

“There were impairments to certain projects primarily relating to global economic market conditions, changes to operational plans and increases in budgeted costs,” said a person familiar with the matter.

The PIF owns five so-called gigaprojects, including Neom, which is designed to include a linear city inspired by science fiction.

The projects are central to de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s plans to modernise the kingdom and diversify the economy to reduce its reliance on oil.

But Saudi officials have said the kingdom is taking stock of the ambitious projects, as lower oil prices weigh on state spending. Neom’s projects are under review, with many expected to be scaled back and phased out.

Elements of the $500bn Neom project have faced delays and challenges due to the scale and ambition of the development, which is being built from scratch in a remote area by the Red Sea.

While there has been robust growth in other sectors in recent years, the kingdom still relies on oil exports for more than 60 per cent of its revenue.

Ana Nacvalovaite, a research fellow at Oxford university who focuses on sovereign wealth funds, said that geopolitical turmoil and engineering challenges may have affected the PIF’s valuation of its gigaproject holdings. “I don’t think [PIF] are too worried about it, of course it’s a colossal sum of money . . . but there will be some losses before we hit 2030,” she said.

The fund disclosed the reduced valuations in its 2024 annual report, published on Wednesday. Gross assets under management rose to about $913bn, up 19 per cent from the end of 2023. The gigaprojects account for 6 per cent of the fund’s assets, down from 8 per cent in 2023.

The rise was driven partly by an increase in the PIF’s holdings of state oil company Aramco during 2024, when the Saudi government transferred an additional 8 per cent stake to the fund, bringing its shareholding up to 16 per cent.

More than a third of the PIF’s investments were in Saudi companies by the end of last year.

The holding in Aramco has been under severe pressure as low oil prices bite. Aramco’s shares have lost 14.3 per cent of their value since the start of the year and it has also cut dividends.

The PIF said that its average annual returns were 7.2 per cent in 2024, down from 8.7 per cent the previous year. Earlier this year, it reported that its net profits had dropped 60 per cent, with the fall driven by higher interest rates, inflation and impairments on projects.

Nacvalovaite pointed out that Norway’s sovereign wealth fund also reported losses last year, saying the PIF “does not stand alone”.

The kingdom’s economic modernisation programme, Vision 2030, transformed the PIF from a sleepy state holding company, used to investing in local companies, into a major player at home and abroad.

But the fund, once known for splashy bets on international golf tournaments and a Tesla rival, has scaled back the global portion of its overall holdings, preferring to focus its efforts domestically.

International investments accounted for 17 per cent of the PIF’s portfolio at the end of 2024, compared with 20 per cent a year earlier.

The IMF this month reported that the PIF and Aramco had both repatriated some of their foreign assets in 2024.