FT : Trump family deal with fusion energy firm adds to complicated UK-US ties

Trump family deal with fusion energy firm adds to complicated UK-US ties
TAE Technologies has already agreed joint venture with UK government’s atomic laboratory

US President Donald Trump’s family has gone into business with the British government, adding a fresh dimension to an already complicated relationship. 

Trump Media & Technology Group, the Trump family media business, said on Thursday that it had agreed to combine with fusion energy company TAE Technologies in a $6bn merger to build “the world’s first utility-scale fusion power plant”.

The twist in the deal is that TAE Technologies, which is backed by US tech group Google and oil major Chevron, this month struck a joint venture with the UK government’s atomic laboratory. 

The state-owned UK Atomic Energy Authority would contribute £5.6mn in equity to the new venture, based in Oxfordshire, the government said.

It touted the partnership as evidence of the “technology prosperity deal” that was signed by London and Washington in September but has since been suspended, amid US concerns over progress on trade talks. 

Now it is also a business link between the Starmer administration and the Trump dynasty.

The Department for Business and Trade said the joint venture was “going through the usual regulatory and due diligence processes”.

One official said the government had not been aware of discussions between TMTG and TAE Technologies at the time the decision was made.

The way the Trumps have enriched themselves rapidly since Donald Trump returned to the White House this year is in contrast to his predecessors, who have tended to make modest financial sacrifices for the duration of their term of office.

In Britain politicians have to divest or manage any potential business or financial interests when they become ministers.

Rishi Sunak, the last prime minister and the wealthiest MP in British history, put his investments in a blind trust while he was in government, meaning they were managed by a third party. 

“This could bring all manner of headaches, as spending government money on a firm associated with Trump will be unpopular with British voters,” said Robert Ford, professor of political science at the University of Manchester.

“But attempts to back out of the deal may provoke anger and even lawsuits from the notoriously litigious Trump,” he added.

According to a Financial Times investigation, the family’s business has already reaped more than $1bn in pre-tax profits over the past year, in part thanks to a cryptocurrency boom fuelled by the administration’s industry-friendly policies.

Trump set up TMTG to run his Truth Social app after being banned from major social networks after the Capitol Hill attack of January 6 2021. Its board includes FBI director Kash Patel and his son, Donald Trump Jr, who will also serve on the board of the new entity announced on Tuesday.

Built on right-leaning online politics, earlier this year TMTG pivoted towards crypto, raising billions of dollars to buy tokens, and is launching several bitcoin funds. 

Just as Trump’s digital currency ventures have netted gains, so he has had no compunction in leaning on Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to try to benefit his family’s sprawling golf business. 

During Starmer’s visit to the White House in February, Trump raised the possibility of the Turnberry golf resort in Scotland — which the US president owns — returning as a venue for the Open Championship.

The R&A, the body that runs the Open, the oldest golf championship in the world, in 2021 said it would not host the tournament at Trump’s Turnberry resort in the wake of the January 6 attack. 

Trump has repeatedly asked Starmer to try to overturn that block. “He did go on about Turnberry,” said one person involved in the February visit. 

In July the president took part of his summer holiday at Turnberry, mixing business with pleasure as Starmer flew in to meet him at his hotel with near-full media access.

The two leaders later flew together on Air Force One, the president’s official plane, to view Trump’s new golf course in Aberdeenshire.

Starmer said this year that he “likes and respects” the US president, despite their differences in policy on areas ranging from immigration to wind farms.

By maintaining a friendly approach to Trump, Starmer has been able to secure financial and diplomatic wins for the UK, he has maintained.

In May, for example, London stressed the benefits of a trade pact aimed at cushioning the impact of Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs, which granted lower-tariff quotas for British car and steel exports.

But Washington’s decision this month to suspend implementation of the tech prosperity deal, signed during Trump’s second state visit to Britain in September, is evidence of the unpredictability of the “special relationship” under him.

“Any government dealing with Trump is at risk of finding itself complicit in his moneymaking activities,” said one Labour figure. “But it would be a brave prime minister who decided to snub him or elevated ethical principles above a much-needed investment in the UK economy.”

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 18th of December 2025 V2(+)

>>> Up
* H&M Raised to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 173 kronor
* Oxford Biomedica Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 735 pence
* Rational Raised to Buy at UBS; PT 785 euros
* Rentokil Raised to Buy at BofA (+)
* Rivian Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $25
* Thyssenkrupp Nucera Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 11 euros

>>> Down
* Argenx ADRs Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $858
* Avidity Biosciences Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $72
* Bufab Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 105 kronor
* Deutsche PBB PT Cut to 3.80 euros at Bankhaus Metzler (+)
* Diageo PT Cut to 1,530 pence from 1,595 pence at Morgan Stanley
* Evolution Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 575 kronor
* Hexagon Purus Cut to Sell at SB1 Markets; PT 1 krone
* Tomra Cut to Sell at SB1 Markets; PT 110 kroner
* Voestalpine Cut to Hold at Erste Group; PT 39.50 euros

>>> Initiation
* Appear Rated New Buy at ABG; PT 100 kroner
* Autoliv GDRs Rated New Buy at SB1 Markets; PT 1,400 kronor
* Avalo Therapeutics Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities
* Comet Rated New Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 310 Swiss francs
* Elkem Rated New Buy at Arctic Securities; PT 35 kroner
* Eolus AB Rated New Buy at SB1 Markets; PT 60 kronor
* Inficon Rated New Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 110 Swiss francs
* LSE Group Rated New Buy at Cavendish; PT 11,510 pence (+)
* Magnora Rated New Buy at Arctic Securities; PT 32 kroner
* Norconsult Norge Rated New Buy at SB1 Markets; PT 55 kroner
* TX Group Rated New Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 178 Swiss francs

>>> Call
* Comet New Outperform at Oddo BHF on Favorable Memory Exposure
* Evolution Double-Downgraded at Barclays on Weaker Growth Outlook
* Inditex Price Target Boosted at Jefferies to Fresh Street High (+)
* Inficon Neutral at Oddo BHF, High-Quality But Limited Upside6--
* Société Générale Price Objective Up as BofA Forecasts Profitability Rebound by FY28

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 18th of December 2025

>>> Up
* H&M Raised to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 173 kronor
* Oxford Biomedica Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 735 pence
* Rational Raised to Buy at UBS; PT 785 euros
* Rivian Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $25
* Thyssenkrupp Nucera Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 11 euros

>>> Down
* Argenx ADRs Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $858
* Avidity Biosciences Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $72
* Bufab Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 105 kronor
* Diageo PT Cut to 1,530 pence from 1,595 pence at Morgan Stanley
* Evolution Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 575 kronor
* Hexagon Purus Cut to Sell at SB1 Markets; PT 1 krone
* Tomra Cut to Sell at SB1 Markets; PT 110 kroner
* Voestalpine Cut to Hold at Erste Group; PT 39.50 euros

>>> Initiation
* Appear Rated New Buy at ABG; PT 100 kroner
* Autoliv GDRs Rated New Buy at SB1 Markets; PT 1,400 kronor
* Avalo Therapeutics Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities
* Comet Rated New Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 310 Swiss francs
* Elkem Rated New Buy at Arctic Securities; PT 35 kroner
* Eolus AB Rated New Buy at SB1 Markets; PT 60 kronor
* Inficon Rated New Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 110 Swiss francs
* Magnora Rated New Buy at Arctic Securities; PT 32 kroner
* Norconsult Norge Rated New Buy at SB1 Markets; PT 55 kroner
* TX Group Rated New Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 178 Swiss francs

>>> Call
* Comet New Outperform at Oddo BHF on Favorable Memory Exposure
* Evolution Double-Downgraded at Barclays on Weaker Growth Outlook
* Inficon Neutral at Oddo BHF, High-Quality But Limited Upside6--
* Société Générale Price Objective Up as BofA Forecasts Profitability Rebound by FY28

>>> What to look at today - 18th of December 2025

Asian stocks dropped, followed losses in US equities, as investors sold tech shares amid concern valuations have become excessive. Oil trimmed gains after US President Donald Trump avoided adding to geopolitical angst in a television address. MSCI’s regional equity benchmark slid 0.7%, with South Korea’s Kospi and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average both dropping more than 1%. That was after the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 slipped 1.9% Wednesday with Nvidia Corp. slid 3.8% to its lowest since September. The S&P 500 declined 1.2%, breaching its 50-day moving average. Gold and silver steadied in Asia after jumping on Wednesday as investors sought alternatives to government bonds and key currencies. US stock futures edged higher after Micron Technology Inc., the largest US maker of computer memory chips, gave an upbeat forecast late Wednesday.  The selloff in tech is a further sign investors are further questioning whether companies at the vanguard of the artificial intelligence boom can keep justifying their expensive valuations and ambitious spending. Concerns over the cost and viability of data center expansion, such as Oracle Corp.’s financing plans in Michigan, fueled broader unease about the sector’s outlook. Global oil benchmark Brent trimmed earlier gains after Trump refrained from mentioning recent developments in Venezuela during an address from the White House. Washington imposed a blockade on sanctioned tankers from Venezuela this week, with Trump accusing Caracas of taking away US “energy rights.”  Gold held near a record high after climbing 0.8% on Wednesday as investors tracked mounting tensions in Venezuela and waited for US inflation data. Bullion has jumped nearly two-thirds this year and is on track for its best annual performance since 1979. Oracle shares tumbled more than 5% in New York after the Financial Times reported Blue Owl Capital Inc. wouldn’t back a $10 billion deal for a data center in Michigan. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is now down more than 5% from its recent peak. Selling of tech shares combined with dovish comments from a Federal Reserve official helped boost two- and five-year Treasuries in US trading. The benchmark 10-year yield dropped one basis point to 4.14% on Thursday. Bloomberg’s dollar index was little changed. In Asia, the yen edged higher against the dollar with the Bank of Japan expected to raise interest rates Friday to the highest level in three decades. The recent volatility that has spread across a number of asset classes suggests traders may be in for a busy holiday season, when thin liquidity can exacerbate market moves. A clearer narrative has emerged in recent weeks: the mega-cap technology stocks that have powered this bull run may be losing their ability to carry the market on their own, according to Fawad Razaqzada at Forex.com. New Zealand’s economy rebounded more than economists had forecast in the third quarter, with falling interest rates helping drive output after a second-quarter contraction. China Vanke Co., once the nation’s biggest homebuilder, lurched closer toward what would be one of the country’s largest-ever debt restructurings. Among key events for financial markets Thursday are the release of US inflation data for November, along with monetary policy decisions from the European Central Bank and Bank of England. US After Hours MU +8.1% and MLKN +8.8% sharply higher on earnings; BP +0.3% on CEO transition news; EPAC -7.8% lower on earnings.

Nikkei -1.03% Hang Seng -0.33% CSI -0.50% Shanghai +0.25% Shenzen -0.52%

Eur$ 1.1743 CNH 7.0366 CNY 7.0422 JPY 155.75 GBP 1.3370 CHF 0.7953 RUB 80.4563 TRY 42.7328 WTI$ 56.34 +0.72% Gold 4;336 -0.05% BTC 86,590 +0.74% ETH 2,826 +0.29% SOL 122.6381 +0.20%

S&P +0.11% Nasdaq +0.33% EuroStoxx -0.04% FTSE -0.05% Dax -0.17% SMI +0.03%

Macro :
- Isaacman Wins Senate Vote to Become Trump’s NASA Chief
- Hedge Fund Qube to Take Six UBS Floors in Hong Kong’s Central
- Binance Weighs US Strategy as Billionaire Zhao Regains Clout
- Uniformed Armed Guards Spotted On Russian 'Shadow Fleet' Vessels Off Europe - Zero Hedge
- EU holds crunch summit on Russian asset plan for Ukraine

Keep an eye on :
- AC FP : Accor Delays Launch of €100m Buyback Program From 4Q25 to 1Q26
- AENA SM : Aena Buys Leeds Bradford, Newcastle Airports Stakes for £270M, InfraBridge to Sell Majority Stakes in Leeds, Newcastle Airports
- ALM SM : Almirall Finalizes EUR250 Million Senior Notes Issue
- AMZN US : Amazon Withdrew Fermi Project Funds, Business Insider Says 
- AMS SW : AMS-Osram Seeks to Buy Back Up to €300m in 2027 Convertibles
- AVOL SW : Avolta awarded Shanghai Pudong International Airport concession, marking a first-in-a-generation duty-free win for an internatio
- BDT GY : Bertrandt FY Ebit Loss EU35.5M, Est. Loss EU32.6M
- BP/ LN : BP Makes O’Neill First Female Big Oil CEO in Bid for Revival
- DNO NO : DNO Agrees North Sea Oil Offtake Deals With Exxon, Shell
- EGTX SS : Egetis Therapeutics to Move to Nasdaq Stockholm's Mid Cap Segment
- ERICB SS : Ericsson Activates AIR 3255 Massive MIMO Radios In DOCOMO's 5G Network Supporting High Traffic Demand And Improved Spectrum
- EBS AV : Erste Gets Polish Regulator’s Nod for €7 Billion Santander Deal
- GEV US : *GE VERNOVA SHARES FALL 11% IN BIGGEST DROP SINCE JANUARY
- GOOGL US : YouTube will stream the Oscars — exclusively — beginning in 2029 - ThechCrunch
- GRE SM : Grenergy Closes Financing With Santander for Ayora Project
- HBMN SW : Giammaria Giuliani/Mario G. Giuliani détiennent 16,33%
- HTBK US : Heritage to Merge Into Citizens in ~$811m All-Stock Deal
- ITX SM : Zara turns to AI-edited models amid shop closures
- ISS DC : ISS Expands 5-Year Contract With Financial Firm by DKK100m/Year
- ITGR US : Activist Irenic Pushing Medical-Device Maker Integer to Pursue Sale -- WSJ
- JBL US : Jabil Lifts 2026 Outlook, Sees AI-Related Revenue of $12.1b
- KOG NO : Kongsberg Gruppen Sets Additional Terms for Maritime Business Spinoff
- MDLN US : *MEDLINE SHARES JUMP 41% IN TRADING DEBUT
- B4B GY : Germany’s Metro investments in Russian stores Up 13%: Izvestia
- MU US : Micron 2Q Adjusted Revenue Forecast Beats Estimates, The Information view
- MSFT US : Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman says it will cost 'hundreds of billions' to keep up with frontier AI in the next decade
- WINE LN : Naked Wines Sees Earnings Towards the Top End of Guidance
- HOME SM : Neinor Homes Acquires 79.2% Stake in Aedas for About €740m
- NESN SW : Nestlé Waters Sued by Rival for €1.6B in French Court: Le Monde
- NOVN SW : Novartis, Roche Near US Drug Price Deal as Swiss Tensions Ease
- Open AI : OpenAI Says Developers Can Submit Apps to ChatGPT
- OVS IM : OVS 3Q Adjusted Net Sales EU451.9M Vs. EU414.7M Y/y
- PIRC IM : Sinochem Hires BNP Paribas as Adviser for Pirelli: Corriere
- RBI AV : Raiffeisen Int’l CEO Strobl to Be Succeeded by Hoellerer
- RHM GY : Rheinmetall to Sell Civil Units, Lifts Outlook on Defense Boom
- ROG SW : Novartis, Roche Near US Drug Price Deal as Swiss Tensions Ease
- RWE GY : UK approves RWE plans for Five Estuaries offshore wind farm
- SIFG NA : SIF Maintains FY Adjusted Ebitda Forecast
- Space X IPO : SpaceX’s Record IPO Plan Pushes Obscure Fund Into Spotlight
- TEF SM : Telefonica to Begin Process of Delisting Shares From NYSE
- TEN IM : Tenaris Holder Techint to Sell up to 21m Shares by May 19
- 6201 JP : Elliott Woos Other Toyota Industries Investors in Buyout Fight
- UBSG SW : How a Swiss compromise could save UBS billions - FT
- 2202 HK : Vanke Meets Bondholders Under Threat of Default in Just Days
- VAR NO : Var Energi Plans 20 New Projects to Squeeze More Oil From Norway
- VWS DC : Vestas Gets 108 MW Wind Turbine Contract in Australia
- WBD US : Warner Demands Larry Ellison’s Personal Guarantee in Paramount Bid - WSJ & The Information
- WBD US : New York hedge fund approached by Warner shareholder to buy CNN - FT
- WHA NA : Wereldhave Nominates Marcel Eggenkamp as Chief Financial Officer
- WIHL SS : Wihlborgs Fastigheter Enters Six-year Lease Deal for Swedish Property Space

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Rational (RAA TH) +3.3%
    • Rational Raised to Buy at UBS; PT 785 euros
  • BP (BPE5 TH) +1.6%
    • BP Makes O’Neill First Female Big Oil CEO in Bid for Revival (3)
  • Vestas (VWSB TH) +1.2%
    • Vestas Gets 108 MW Wind Turbine Contract in Australia
  • Rheinmetall (RHM TH) +1.1%
    • Rheinmetall to Sell Civil Units, Lifts Outlook on Defense Boom
  • Novo (NOV TH) -1.5%
  • Voestalpine (VAS TH) -1.8%
    • Voestalpine Cut to Hold at Erste Group; PT 39.50 euros
  • BT (BTQ TH) -2.2%
  • Evolution (E3G1 TH) -2.9%
    • Evolution Double-Downgraded at Barclays on Weaker Growth Outlook

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Rheinmetall (RHM TH) +1.1%
    • Rheinmetall to Sell Civil Units, Lifts Outlook on Defense Boom
MDAX:
  • Aixtron (AIXA TH) +1.4%
  • Lufthansa (LHA TH) -0.7%
    • Lufthansa’s Dreamliner Business-Class Limit to Last Longer: HB
SDAX:
  • Thyssenkrupp Nucera AG & Co KGaa (NCH2 TH) +4.8%
  • SFC Energy (F3C TH) +2.7%
    • EQS-News: SFC Energy AG secures CAD 1.3 million order
  • Heidelberger Druck (HDD TH) +1%
  • Douglas AG (DOU TH) -3.8%
    • EQS-News: DOUGLAS Group achieves solid sales growth and doubles net

NYT : M.I.T. Professor Is Fatally Shot in His Home

M.I.T. Professor Is Fatally Shot in His Home
The professor, Nuno F.G. Loureiro, was pronounced dead at a hospital on Tuesday morning. The authorities said they had opened a homicide investigation.

The authorities said on Tuesday that they had opened a homicide investigation after a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology was fatally shot at his home in Brookline, Mass.

The professor, Nuno F.G. Loureiro, 47, was a member of the departments of nuclear science and engineering and physics, as well as the director of M.I.T.’s Plasma Science and Fusion Center, the school said.

The Norfolk County District Attorney’s Office said the police responded on Monday night after receiving a report of a man shot at his home. The office said that Dr. Loureiro was brought to a hospital with gunshot wounds, and that he was pronounced dead on Tuesday morning. An office spokesman, David Linton, said on Tuesday that there had not been any arrests in the case.

The Brookline police chief, Jennifer Paster, said that she had deployed patrol cars and officers to Dr. Loureiro’s neighborhood.

“This remains an active and ongoing homicide investigation,” she said in a statement. “In order to protect the integrity of the investigation, we are limited in the information we can share at this time and ask for the community’s understanding and patience.”

Ted Docks, the special agent in charge of the F.B.I. in Boston, said there “seems to be no connection” between the fatal shooting of Dr. Loureiro and a shooting at Brown University on Saturday that killed two students.

M.I.T. said it was encouraging members of the campus community who may be affected by Dr. Loureiro’s death to reach out for support.

“This shocking loss for our community comes in a period of disturbing violence in many other places,” the president of M.IT., Sally Kornbluth, said in a statement. “It’s entirely natural to feel the need for comfort and support.”

M.I.T. named Dr. Loureiro director of the Plasma Science and Fusion Center in May 2024, putting him in charge of one of the school’s largest labs, where more than 250 researchers, staff members and students work in seven buildings with 250,000 square feet of lab space.

In January, President Joseph R. Biden Jr. announced that Dr. Loureiro was one of nearly 400 scientists who had been awarded the Presidential Early Career Award for Scientists and Engineers. The administration called it the highest honor bestowed by the U.S. government on outstanding scientists and engineers at the start of their careers.

M.I.T. said the National Science Foundation had nominated Dr. Loureiro for the award because of his work on the generation and amplification of magnetic fields in the universe.

Dr. Loureiro, who was born and raised in Portugal, received an undergraduate degree in physics from the Instituto Superior Técnico in Lisbon and a doctorate in physics from Imperial College London in 2005. After postdoctoral work at the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory in New Jersey and the Culham Center for Fusion Energy, Britain’s national laboratory for fusion research, he returned to Portugal to become a principal investigator at the Instituto Superior Técnico’s Institute for Plasmas and Nuclear Fusion, Ms. Kornbluth said.

He joined M.I.T.’s faculty in 2016, and he was appointed deputy director of the Plasma Science and Fusion Center in 2022. He was an expert on a fundamental plasma process called magnetic reconnection, among other areas of research.

“Nuno was not only a brilliant scientist, he was a brilliant person,” Dennis Whyte, a former director of the Plasma Science and Fusion Center, said in an obituary published by M.I.T. “He shone a bright light as a mentor, friend, teacher, colleague and leader, and was universally admired for his articulate, compassionate manner.”

CNN Portugal reported that Portugal’s minister of foreign affairs had announced Dr. Loureiro’s death in Parliament. On Tuesday, the U.S. ambassador to Portugal, John J. Arrigo, released a statement expressing his condolences to Dr. Loureiro’s family, friends and colleagues.

“We honor his life, his leadership in science, and his enduring contributions,” Mr. Arrigo said.

FT : Two views of AI and Big Tech

Big Tech’s AI business models
We’ve looked at charts like this before:



That’s capital expenditures at the five Big Tech companies that are making the biggest plays on artificial intelligence (Nvidia, as a chipmaker rather than a service company, is big too, but is in a different category). The pattern of increasing spending looks similar at all of them. But the scale of the increase is not similar. Here is the same chart, with each company’s spending scaled to where it was four years ago:


Microsoft has doubled its capital spending in order to compete in AI. Alphabet, Amazon and Meta have tripled theirs. And Oracle has pushed up spending elevenfold.

This difference in spending has had a correspondingly disparate effect on free cash flow at the five companies: 


At Microsoft and Alphabet, operating cash flow is growing strongly enough to keep free cash flow more or less steady in the face of higher capital spending. At Meta, cash flow has started to wilt (and is expected to wilt more next year). Amazon — where cash flow is always volatile — has seen a sharp downturn, too. Finally, Oracle has begun to burn cash outright.

Unhedged’s argument has been that the market, far from blindly throwing money at AI and Big Tech, is making distinctions that appear to be based on cash generation. This continues to play out recently, with Oracle shares getting badly beaten up and Meta’s struggling. Alphabet’s shares have been relatively resilient partly because they were previously oversold on concerns about the future of the search business. One might be surprised that Amazon’s shares have not been hit harder, given the fall in free cash, but it has long been a company that prioritises reinvestment over profit. 


The market has lost patience with Oracle and Meta. Might the same happen to the other three before long? In a recent piece, Jason Thomas of Carlyle argues that it might, saying that the five companies have moved from an asset-light/software model that deserves a high valuation to something like an industrial model. But they are still valued the same way:

When these companies were “asset-light,” paying 7x their accounting [book] value made a lot of sense; you don’t value a money printing machine based on the cost of the paper or printing press! But at current price-to-book ratios, when they acquire $100mn in data centre assets, shareholders are effectively asked to pay $1bn, on average, for the purchase. Does this make sense?

If we assume that the PP & E on balance sheet should be valued at cost and assign a 10x P/B multiple to the rest, these companies’ market caps would be roughly half of what they are today.

Perhaps this is too restrictive an assumption . . . But it does provide a framework to think about valuations in an era where previously “virtual” companies suddenly need to concern themselves with industrial era minutiae like capacity utilisation and depreciation rates

Harvard Business School professor Andy Wu takes something like the opposite view in a recent interview, arguing that, rather than fundamentally changing their business models, they have 

taken a shrewd and conservative strategy for AI. They positioned themselves well to benefit from the rise of AI, but they don’t stand to lose that much if AI grows slower than anticipated.

Microsoft has mostly outsourced AI to a third party, OpenAI . . . Amazon will support anybody’s AI model . . . Meta spent billions of dollars building an open-source AI model that they hand out for free to the world . . .  these companies don’t really think that core AI technology is a meaningful business in and of itself.

Instead, they’re focused on profiting from all the adjacencies to AI. I often use a gold rush analogy: OpenAI, Anthropic and xAI are out there digging for gold.

Nvidia is the consummate shovel seller, designing the chips needed by the gold diggers. And Meta is the consummate jewellery maker: Meta’s social media, advertising, wearables and metaverse businesses stand to benefit . . . Microsoft does a bit of shovel selling and jewellery making, but the key thing is they’re not stuck digging for gold.

Certainly, it’s plausible that Amazon and Microsoft and Google might make less money on their cloud computing than they ideally would like if AI growth slows or declines, but they would not end up in financial distress.

We might sum up Wu’s view by saying that while Big Tech’s data centre spending is significant, it is supplemental to the companies’ core business models, which remain “virtual” or asset-light. They are not making an existential bet on AI; they are spending to make sure that their core businesses can coexist with AI, should they need to. This implies that those core businesses should still be valued on high multiples of cash flows. 

I’m not sure where I land on this. A crucial question is how long the current highly elevated level of spending persists. Three years? Ten? Forever? As the timeline extends, it will become harder to argue that these are still, at core, virtual businesses (again, this point applies less neatly to Amazon, which has always straddled the industrial/virtual line). And it’s not clear anyone knows the answer to this question, because it depends on how the technology and the market for it evolves. The market is giving the benefit of the doubt to Big Tech, as Thomas points out. But again, it is not doing so indiscriminately, as the weak performance of Meta and Oracle shows.

FT : Putin’s retaliation threat over frozen assets rattles EU capitals

Putin’s retaliation threat over frozen assets rattles EU capitals
Italy, Belgium and Austria worry about Russia moving against their companies

Moscow’s threats to retaliate against western companies over the EU’s move to indefinitely freeze Russian assets have heightened concerns in some European capitals that remain wary of using the funds to support Ukraine.

The bloc last week agreed to keep €210bn of Moscow’s assets immobilised for the foreseeable future as part of plans to channel them into a €90bn loan to Kyiv over the next two years designed to help fend off Russian aggression and bolster Europe’s role in US-led peace talks.

Russia has promised “the harshest” response if its sovereign assets are used to fund Ukraine, in a threat that has alarmed countries including Belgium, Italy and Austria.

Though Moscow has not yet revealed what further steps it might take, officials have looked into seizing any remaining western assets in Russia, according to a person familiar with the plans.

President Vladimir Putin last month described the European plans as “property theft”.

Moscow’s threats come as EU leaders gather in Brussels on Thursday for a crunch summit to decide on funding to keep Ukraine solvent for the next two years, with Belgium continuing to resist pressure from other capitals to agree to the €90bn loan raised against the assets.

Belgium’s Prime Minister Bart De Wever has said the risk of Russian retaliation against his country, which hosts the overwhelming majority of the assets, is too great, and demanded that the EU’s other 26 member states provide financial and legal guarantees to share the burden.

Belgium is demanding “unlimited” guarantees in scope and duration, officials briefed on the last-minute negotiations have said, but other capitals have said that is impossible.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will attend the summit to make his case to De Wever personally, and EU officials have said the summit will last as long as it takes to reach a decision.

“This is existential for Ukraine,” said one senior EU diplomat involved in the negotiations. “So Belgium has to get on board.”

Russia’s central bank has already brought an Rbs18tn ($229bn) legal action in a Moscow court against Euroclear — the Brussels-based central securities depository that holds €185bn of Russia’s frozen sovereign assets. The first hearing is scheduled for mid-January.

The Kremlin has also drawn up a series of regulatory measures that would facilitate further seizures. 

Western companies had at least $127bn of assets in Russia as of 2024, according to research by the Kyiv School of Economics Institute.

The Kremlin has already seized or frozen assets of at least 32 western companies in response to earlier disputes, causing losses of at least $57bn, the KSE Institute said.

The assets, investment and dividends of companies that stay “are basically under control of Russia,” said KSE Institute director Nataliia Shapoval, adding that the companies are required “to give away their rights over the investment”.

Russia could seize western companies’ local subsidiaries under a decree Putin signed in September that introduces an expedited procedure for nationalisation. The Kremlin explained the decision as a way to quickly respond to “hostile acts” such as the EU seizing its assets.


Belgian officials believe that Euroclear would be the first victim of potential retaliation in Russia, as about €17bn of its clients’ assets are still immobilised there and at risk, according to people familiar with the matter.

“The use of immobilised assets at Euroclear could have potentially harmful consequences for this country and Europe as a whole,” De Wever told the Belgian parliament earlier this month.

Though 1,903 foreign companies have withdrawn from Russia or cut back their operations there since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly four years ago, 2,315 remain active in the country, according to the KSE Institute.

Those include the Russian branches of banks such as Austria’s Raiffeisen and Italy’s UniCredit, which have generated significant wartime profits they are unable to repatriate under a ban on dividend payouts. Foreign companies earned $19.5bn in profits in Russia last year, according to the KSE Institute.

Andrea Orcel, UniCredit’s chief executive, told an Italian senate hearing last month that the bank had no plans to pull out of Russia even though it had about €3.5bn of capital stranded there.

“If they nationalise me it’s a legal violation, and I maintain a credit with the Russian Federation in perpetuity,” Orcel said.

The Italian government last week backed the EU decision to indefinitely freeze the Russian assets, but also raised concerns about the potential risks of using them to fund Ukraine.

Italian senator Claudio Borghi from the far-right League party, a Russia-friendly pro-business partner in Giorgia Meloni’s coalition, has warned of the repercussions if the EU went ahead with its plans.

“How can you think that effectively stealing another country’s money will not lead to further disaster?” Borghi told the FT. “The first consequence is that Russia will feel free to confiscate all foreign assets.”

Austria is also concerned Moscow could move to seize Raiffeisen, the country’s largest bank, which reported revenue of $2.9bn in Russia last year.

“This is uncharted legal territory, and frankly, there is growing incomprehension about why the commission doesn’t just talk more to the member states and at least give them the feeling that their concerns are being taken seriously,” an Austrian official said.

The seizures could affect western investors who held publicly traded Russian securities before the invasion as well as western companies with stakes in Russian corporates or operations in the country.

After western countries froze about $300bn of Russia’s sovereign assets in the early days of the war, Moscow responded by barring western investors from selling their Russian securities and withdrawing the proceeds. Dividends and coupons are held in so-called type-C accounts under Russia’s control.

Russia has let some western investors withdraw some of the funds. But the type-C accounts have likely significantly grown in value since March 2023, when Russia disclosed that Rbs500bn ($6.3bn) in frozen western assets were held there, according to Alexandra Prokopenko, a former central bank official.

Sberbank, Russia’s largest bank, said it paid out about 25 per cent of its Rbs787bn dividend for 2024 to type-C accounts last year. The sums have continued to accumulate even though many western companies have written off the investments.

BP’s dividends from its 19.75 per cent stake in Rosneft likely total about Rbs340bn, Prokopenko said, while a 2024 court decision said JPMorgan had Rbs243bn in Russian assets “mainly” in type-C accounts.

“This is one of Moscow’s aces. If Europe makes a move on Russia’s reserves, Russia can just transfer funds from type-C accounts into the budget,” Prokopenko said. “It gives them a source of direct revenue when they’re running a deficit and overspending on defence.”

The move would also show Russia was “ready to take an eye for an eye”, she added. “Unlike Europe, the Kremlin can do that quickly without getting tangled up in court hearings.”


The Kremlin has also threatened to sue western governments, companies and individual investors in foreign courts.

Two dozen Russian oligarchs and corporates have already brought challenges to asset freezes and seizures through tribunals governed by investor-state dispute settlement mechanisms under international treaties. The Russian claims amount to at least $62bn, according to analysis by Friends of the Earth — an environmental campaign group.

“The point isn’t to win but to create risks, increase the costs, drag things out and demoralise” entities involved in the scheme to fund Ukraine, Prokopenko said. “The longer the lawsuits go on for, the longer the EU can’t make full use of the Russian assets.”

Belgium fears potential lawsuits under an investment treaty it has signed with Moscow, together with Luxembourg. Sanctioned oligarch Mikhail Fridman is already seeking $16bn in damages from Luxembourg for freezing his assets.

Lawyers hired by the European Commission have expressed doubt that Russia could successfully challenge the use of its sovereign assets under bilateral investment treaties.

Investment courts “lack jurisdiction to hear a dispute relating to alleged expropriation of Russia’s sovereign assets”, Covington wrote in a legal assessment seen by the FT. The law firm said the risk for EU member states to be dragged before other international courts “has been significantly exaggerated”.

The commission had also made it “extremely unattractive for third countries to co-operate with Russia on expropriation of European assets”, a senior commission official said.

Germany, the main driving force behind the frozen assets plan, has “made it clear again and again that the basic principle of this whole operation is that everyone bears the same risk”, another EU diplomat said. Berlin believed that using the Russian assets was the only way to continue to fund Ukraine without taking on more debt, the diplomat said.

“If it doesn’t work out, it is certainly a disastrous signal to Ukraine. Europe will then also fail as a geopolitical actor,” they added.

FT : New York hedge fund approached by Warner shareholder to buy CNN

New York hedge fund approached by Warner shareholder to buy CNN
Standard General’s Soo Kim is considering purchasing or investing in WBD’s television networks

A prominent New York investor has been approached by at least one major Warner Bros Discovery shareholder to acquire all or part of its cable television assets including CNN, said people briefed on the matter.

Soo Kim, founder of New York hedge fund Standard General, has been in talks over potentially buying or investing in the WBD television networks, said the people.

A veteran of distressed debt deals, Kim took stakes in troubled companies including RadioShack and American Apparel. Standard General has recently entered gaming through its takeover of the listed Bally’s casino chain and has done previous television network deals.

A cash infusion could boost the prospects of WBD’s cable assets, which are being spun off as part of the $83bn sale of the group’s studio and streaming assets to Netflix. The shareholder who approached Kim could not be immediately identified.

The potential transaction comes after WBD urged its shareholders on Wednesday to reject Paramount’s $108bn hostile offer to buy all of the media conglomerate.

Paramount has offered $30 a share in cash to WBD shareholders. However, WBD’s board said the Paramount bid was too risky and lacked secure funding. Paramount, which is led by chief executive David Ellison, has vigorously denied the claim.

The Netflix deal, which includes taking over HBO, is worth $27.75 a share in cash and stock. WBD has said its remaining television networks business could have an additional standalone value of a few dollars a share.

Paramount has disputed that valuation, noting that the cable business has a heavy debt load at a time when traditional TV viewership is shrinking.

A private equity backer like Kim could provide a vote of confidence and an infusion of capital for the cable business, which includes CNN, the Food Network and Discovery Channel. 

WBD on Wednesday said a number of potential buyers had expressed interest in its traditional TV assets, without giving the names of the interested parties.

Standard General has previous experience in television news. In 2010, it acquired a local network group, Young Broadcasting, out of bankruptcy.

It later combined Young Broadcasting with rival groups, eventually selling the roll-up known as Media General to Nexstar Broadcasting.

Backed with financing from US private equity group Apollo, Standard General in 2022 announced a near $9bn deal to buy Tegna, a local television group with scores of TV stations. After fierce political and regulatory opposition, the deal was terminated in 2023.

Kim, 50, had acquired the management contract for the Ferry Point municipal golf course in the Bronx, New York, from Donald Trump in 2024, paying tens of millions of dollars to the Trump Organization.

Bally’s this week was officially granted one of three licences for a New York City casino, which it intends to build at the Ferry Point site.

Kim declined to comment. WBD did not respond to a request for comment.