FT : ‘Non-dom’ tax change to hit thousands of returning expats

‘Non-dom’ tax change to hit thousands of returning expats
Revenue cracks down on ability to keep offshore income out of UK net

Thousands of British expats face significant bills if they return to the UK after new “non-dom” tax rules come into force in April.

The finance bill published this week will pare back the tax perks offered to people whose permanent home or “domicile” is outside the UK, imposing new limits on their ability to keep offshore income out of Britain’s tax net.

Permanent non-dom status will be abolished for anyone living in Britain for at least 15 of the past 20 years. Non-dom status for Britons who return to the UK but claim to have a permanent home abroad will also be removed.

The changes have caused consternation in Hong Kong and Singapore, where large numbers of Britons work in finance and legal services.

Carlo Gray, head of Buzzacott, an accountancy firm in Hong Kong, said: “We have had a flurry of inquiries recently in respect to Brits returning to the UK for work or for their children’s education and these new rules are resulting in them having to think very carefully about the implications and their long-term plans.”

The measures, introduced to tackle what the government has described as “fundamental unfairness” in the non-dom regime, amount to the biggest changes to the tax rules since their introduction in 1914.

Martin Rimmer, head of tax for south-east Asia at the Fry group in Singapore, said the reforms would affect expats who had to return to Britain unexpectedly, perhaps because their parents were unwell. “Life throws curve balls,” he said. “I think it will affect thousands, if not tens of thousands, of people whether they know it or not.”

Expats affected by the change were born in the UK, started life with a British “domicile of origin”, but went overseas and put down roots, keeping their wealth outside the scope of the UK tax net even if they subsequently returned to the UK.

If they now return to the UK, they will be taxed on income and gains from any offshore trusts or companies they owned. They will also fall into the UK inheritance tax net, subject to a 12-month grace period.

A prominent example of a returning non-dom is Stuart Gulliver, chief executive of the HSBC banking group. Mr Gulliver, 58, who was born in Derby and educated in Oxford, acquired a tax domicile of choice in Hong Kong after he moved there with HSBC in 1980. This allowed him to keep his offshore income, including from a confidential Panama company, out of the British tax net.

Last week, he lost a High Court battle to stop HM Revenue & Customs investigating how he had kept a tax domicile in Hong Kong since 1999 despite working in Britain for the past 13 years. The revenue has asked him to answer 123 questions and provide 33 categories of documents relating to his personal and professional life since 1981.

Mr Rimmer said more than 100,000 British citizens emigrated every year but changes to the domicile rules would affect only a small proportion.

“The extent to which it matters depends on wealth and the extent to which they know there is a weapon that protects them from tax,” he said. People who were not “tremendously wealthy” would tend to use simpler strategies to reduce their tax bills.

Benjamin Heaton of PwC, the professional services firm, in Singapore said: “Moving country is a huge decision, and understandably, tax would only be one of many factors in making this choice. Quality of life, employment opportunities, climate and a good education system could all be factors which one would consider before tax. With that said, clearly the new rules will have a significant impact on ‘returning UK doms’ with respect to income, capital and inheritance taxes in the UK.”

Barron's : Alibaba and Tencent and the Coming Fintech Boom

Alibaba and Tencent and the Coming Fintech Boom
China’s two big e-commerce companies should grab the lion’s share of the value from what JPMorgan calls a $65 billion upside.

Financial technology is the next big thing in China, with the potential to create an estimated $65 billion in sales by 2020. Alibaba Group Holding and Tencent Holdings may capture at least half of this market, adding 60% upside to their current valuations.

“This is not a blue-sky scenario,” says JPMorgan China Internet analyst Alex Yao. The $65 billion assumes only a 10% online penetration rate. By comparison, about 15% of China’s retail transactions are currently conducted online. If Alibaba and Tencent can capture 50% to 60% of the $65 billion, that would mean an incremental $326 billion to $391 billion market valuation, assuming a 25 times earnings multiple, says JPMorgan.

Online payments are half of the fintech pie. Alibaba (ticker: BABA) and Tencent (700.Hong Kong) have already firmly established themselves there, with 55% and 33% market share, respectively. JPMorgan sees online payments rising by four times, to 202 billion yuan ($29.3 billion), by 2020.

Though still emerging, online payments are already making a difference to the pair’s earnings. JPMorgan estimates that AliPay and TenPay generated CNY21.5 billion and CNY9.4 billion revenue in 2016, or 7% and 6% of the two companies’ total sales. (Alibaba has only a one-third stake in AliPay.) Online payments’ revenue contribution should rise to double-digits this year. “Online payments are the most important infrastructure of fintech,” says Yao, because with their duopoly structure firmly in place, the companies can branch out into other areas of Internet finance such as consumer loans and wealth management.

As consumers pay utility bills and buy groceries, Alibaba and Tencent can analyze these troves of data and determine creditworthiness. Currently, only 29% of China’s population has a credit rating. Also, as more consumers use mobile pay, the easier it becomes for Alibaba and Tencent to cross-sell other products. And online payments dominance counts in lending. About 15% of small businesses have borrowed online, mostly through e-commerce.

CHINA’S STATE-OWNED BANKS are too busy servicing corporate clients to bother with consumer and small-business loans. Consumer loans, excluding mortgages, and small-business loans account for only 15% of total borrowings, while corporate loans amount to 69%.

But JPMorgan banking analyst Katherine Lei says that Alibaba and Tencent have to play nice with the big banks. The government does not want Internet companies taking on too many financial risks. Although Alibaba and Tencent have their own Internet banks, a consumer can’t open a full-fledged account unless she shows up in person at a branch. This makes it difficult for Internet banks to scale up and use consumer deposits to underwrite loans.

The ideal situation is for banks to use their balance sheets to write consumer and small-business loans, while fintech companies provide credit ratings and technology support. Even though banks expect to capture most of the profit, JPMorgan thinks that consumer and small-business loans will still amount to a CNY93 billion market in five years.

But a word of caution: Alibaba has only a one-third stake in its financial arm, Ant Financial, so even though Alibaba has more market share right now, Tencent may be a better proxy for tapping China’s next big thing.

Barron's : Total Emerges From Oil Slump in Growth Mode

Total Emerges From Oil Slump in Growth Mode
The French oil company has been restructuring and cutting costs. Now it’s cherry-picking productive projects from still-struggling rivals.

French oil company Total could again find favor with investors after emerging from the recent oil-price collapse in better shape than many rivals.

A strict regimen of cost-cutting and restructuring means that Total (ticker: FP.France) can now turn a profit at prices that are much lower than before the slump—and that it has enough financial clout to cherry-pick cheap assets from those that didn’t manage the crisis quite as well.

A recent agreement by oil-producing countries to slash output by around 1.8 million barrels a day has helped lift crude prices from the 13-year lows hit in January 2016, when they slipped below $30 a barrel.

The price rout was prompted by global growth concerns at a time of burgeoning supply. China’s economy was losing momentum, and tepid growth elsewhere was expected to reduce demand. At the same time, U.S. producers were ramping up supply, and the end of sanctions against Iran promised to bring yet more oil to the market.

While that pressure on prices has eased considerably, oil continues to hang around the $50-a-barrel mark, well shy of the $110 or more seen in mid-2014. Even at today’s prices, many companies are paying more to produce oil than they can charge for it.

Total isn’t one of them.

INVESTORS WERE PLEASANTLY SURPRISED last month when Total reported better-than-expected earnings and said it aims to turn a profit this year even if oil falls to $40 a barrel, excluding the cost of dividend payments.

CEO Patrick Pouyanne was particularly upbeat, saying that after two years of retrenchment the French company was back on the offensive, ready to launch about 10 new production projects over the next 18 months and to make acquisitions.

In the final quarter of last year, Total swung to a $548 million net profit from a year-earlier loss of $1.63 billion, as revenue rose 12%, to $42.28 billion. It lifted its dividend by one euro cent, to 2.45 euros ($2.64) a share, and it has also said it would eliminate a discount offered to shareholders who take a scrip dividend—new shares instead of a cash payment—if Brent crude hits $60 a barrel. Its dividend yield currently stands at about 5.4%.

Nick Davis, a fund manager at United Kingdom–based Polar Capital, targets good companies that have fallen out of favor and reckons that Total fits that profile. “The reason we like Total is that it’s a well-run company in a difficult sector at trough earnings,” he says.

Total has been slashing expenditures by shedding costly activities while increasing its exposure to higher-margin businesses. Players that have been selling assets cheaply to ease pressure from weak oil prices have provided plenty of fodder.

“Lots of companies in the oil sector have launched big disposal programs when there’s a worrying lack of buyers, and that isn’t the case for Total,” says Davis. “Total has been investing in a countercyclical way. It has been looking for good projects for future production growth. The company has done some interesting deals over the past year at a point in the cycle that suggests it should make good returns on those investments.”

In the fourth quarter alone, Total agreed to pay Brazilian Petróleo Brasileiro (PBR.Brazil), known as Petrobras, $2.2 billion in a deal that included the acquisition of stakes in the state-run oil company’s deepwater oil concessions. It agreed to take an additional 21.6% interest in the Lake Albert project in Uganda, obtained 34% of a liquefied-natural-gas terminal project it operates in the Ivory Coast, and acquired 23% of Tellurian, a company created to develop an integrated gas project in the U.S.

Davis says that Total’s strategy of investing for returns is part of its attraction, along with relatively low exposure to declining oil prices. “We don’t have to get the oil price right for this to be a good investment,” he says. “Shares are cheap, it has a good balance of upstream and downstream, solid margins, and good management.”

TOTAL CURRENTLY TRADES at a forward price/earnings ratio of just under 12, according to data provider FactSet. UBS analyst Jon Rigby has Total at Neutral with a €49 price target, giving it upside of about 4.6%.

Still, the company isn’t completely immune to falling oil prices. Total came under pressure last week along with other oil majors when Brent crude skirted close to a four-month low on concerns that oil-producing nations may not cap output as planned.

As a result, Total’s shares have shed some of the gains made following its earnings release, and were down more than 2% last week. They remain slightly below their 52-week high and are up nearly 14% over the past year, realizing some of the potential outlined in this column in September 2016.

Total shares closed on Friday at €46.21.

>>> Smiths Group may consider selling uncompetitive businesses

Smiths Group may consider selling uncompetitive businesses

Smiths Group [LON:SMIN] Chief Executive Andy Reynolds Smith has said the FTSE-100 engineering company may consider selling some uncompetitive businesses, The Times reported. Reynolds Smith, speaking as Smiths Group released its interim results, said that having conducted a review, he has identified potential disposals among operations that generate about 30% of the group’s revenues.
The CEO said the review identified 60% of the group’s businesses had good market positions, although the group’s impending USD 710m (EUR 657m) acquisition of Safran’s [EPA:SAF] Morpho Detection business and three disposals for a combined GBP 330m changes the percentage of well positioned businesses to 70%.
Reynolds Smith said the company is considering whether its constituent businesses are competitive or have the potential to become competitive. Smiths would consider selling if the process of making a subsidiary competitive is too difficult or would take too long, the CEO added.
Reynolds Smith’s predecessor Philip Bowman had often advocated for a break-up of Smiths Group, the item said.
Smiths Group reported revenues of GBP 1.61bn (EUR 1.85bn) in the six months ended 31 January 2017.
Smiths Group’s market capitalisation stood at GBP 6.33bn at the close of trading in London on Friday, 24 March.

Link to (The Times)

>>> Weekly Update

Weekly Market Update: ‘Trump Bump’ Wobbles as Healthcare Bill Dies

The week saw a reversal in sentiment as investors grew concerned about the ability of the White House to push through the healthcare reform bill in the House and began to sell risk. Tuesday, the Dow lost more than 1%, its biggest one-day loss since last September. Stocks sold off on Friday morning as it appeared the Republicans didn’t have the votes to pass the bill, raising concerns about the Trump administration’s effectiveness in moving forward on the rest of its legislative agenda, including tax reform and infrastructure spending plans. Just before the close on Friday, the GOP pulled the healthcare bill, and stocks saw a relief rally led by the hospitals and healthcare sector. For the week, the S&P500 lost 1.4%, the DJIA dropped 1.5%, and the Nasdaq slipped 1.2%.

China's central bank intervened in the open market to add liquidity, as various financial institutions failed to meet payments. The Bank also tightened rules on borrowing and using corporate bonds as collateral, requiring a AAA rating on bonds as of April 7th. China may be starting to see the effects of financial stress typically associated with extremely high levels of credit-to-GDP ratios. However, the Shanghai Composite closed up on the week by 0.9%, bucking the global trend.

UK PM May set March 29th as the date to trigger the start of the Brexit negotiation process. Article 50 of the EU Treaty states that a member wishing to leave has two years from the date it officially triggers the process. Fears of a ‘hard Brexit’ have driven the Pound to recent lows, while the FTSE has reached new all-time highs. With the Brexit looming, however, the FTSE lost 1.2% over the week in sympathy with the US stock market, joining the sell-off of global stock indices as the Trump trade faded.

In corporate news, Nike shares fell following a mixed quarterly report and disappointing Q3 worldwide futures orders guidance. The sports retailer’s revenues disappointed the Street, despite a beat on earnings, which analysts mostly attributed to tighter expense management and shortening the production process length, amid increasing competition domestically from Under Armour and Adidas. Ford stock also slumped after guiding Q1 earnings below consensus, noting higher costs and unfavorable exchange rates, amid increasing sector worry about fast-falling used car prices. Micron closed out the week on a positive note, posting a big beat on earnings, as well as guiding much higher revenue and profit next quarter, citing strong demand and limited industry supply combined with a successful cost reduction plan.


SUNDAY 3/19
(CN) CHINA FEB PROPERTY PRICES M/M: RISE IN 56 OUT OF 70 CITIES VS 45 PRIOR; Y/Y: RISE IN 67 OUT OF 70 CITIES V 66 PRIOR
(CN) China property sector said to be more sensitive to rising interest rates - Chinese press

MONDAY 3/20
DBK.DE Guides FY17 Income to remain 'in comparison' y/y, Rev 'broadly flat' y/y; Plans to reorganise business into three divisions; Plans to recommend at least the minimum dividend - annual report
(US) FBI Director Comey: confirms that FBI is investigating Russian govt efforts to interfere in election, including potential links between Trump campaign and Russia - testimony to House Intel Committee
(UK) Report by PA Consulting Group found that a hard Brexit could increase the cost of making a car in the UK by £2,400

TUESDAY 3/21
BMW.DE Guides FY17 EBIT, Rev and Sales volume to see 'slight rise' y/y
*(UK) FEB CPI M/M: 0.7% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 2.3% V 2.1%E; CPI CORE Y/Y: 2.0% V 1.7%E; inflation above BOE target for 1st time since Dec 2013
(UK) MAR CBI INDUSTRIAL TRENDS TOTAL ORDERS: 8 V 5E
(US) Mar Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing General Business Conditions: 35.4 v 29.3 prior
NKE Reports Q3 $0.68 v $0.52e, R$8.43B v $8.45Be
- Gross margin 44.5% v 45.9% y/y
FDX Reports Q3 $2.35 v $2.63e, R$15.0B v $15.0Be

WEDNESDAY 3/22
RMS.FR Reports FY16 Net €1.1B v €1.1Be, Op profit €1.70B v €827M y/y; confirms mid-term Rev targets
700.HK Reports Q4 Net CNY10.5B v CNY11.0Be, Op CNY13.9B v CNY10.9B y/y; Rev CNY43.9B v CNY44.2Be
(US) FEB EXISTING HOME SALES: 5.48M V 5.55ME
(UK) Shots reportedly fired outside of UK Parliament building - press
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending March 18th: 495.3K carloads and intermodal units, +2.4% y/y (10th straight week of gains)
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND CENTRAL BANK (RBNZ) LEAVES OFFICIAL CASH RATE (OCR) UNCHANGED AT 1.75%; AS EXPECTED

THURSDAY 3/23
(DE) GERMANY APR GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 9.8 V 10.0E
(PH) PHILIPPINES CENTRAL BANK (BSP) LEAVES OVERNIGHT BORROWING RATE UNCHANGED AT 3.00%; AS EXPECTED
(GR) ECB raises emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) cap for Greece banks from €46.2B to €46.6B (1st hike since Jun 2015)
(EU) ECB PUBLISHES ECONOMIC BULLETIN: Reiterates March monetary policy stance
(TW) TAIWAN CENTRAL BANK (CBC) LEAVES BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE UNCHANGED AT 1.375%; AS EXPECTED
(UK) FEB RETAIL SALES (EX-AUTO FUEL) M/M: 1.3% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 4.1% V 3.2%E V
(EU) ECB ALLOTS €233.5B IN FINAL TLTRO-2 OPERATION VS. €110BE (last auction of an unconventional tool)
*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 258K V 240KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 2.00M V 2.04ME
F Guides Q1 $0.30-0.35 v $0.45e - filing ahead of analyst event
(US) FEB NEW HOME SALES: 592K V 564KE
MU Reports Q2 $0.90 v $0.81e, R$4.65B v $4.65Be - filing
(JP) JAPAN MAR PRELIMINARY PMI MANUFACTURING: 52.6 V 53.3 PRIOR (7th month of expansion)

FRIDAY 3/24
CSGN.CH Revises Q4 Net loss CHF2.62B* v CHF2.35B prior reported following CHF272M charge after NCUA settlement on toxic mortgage securities - annual report
(FR) FRANCE MAR PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 53.4 V 52.4E (6th month of expansion)
(DE) GERMANY MAR PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 58.3 V 56.5E (28th month of expansion and highest since Apr 2011)
(EU) EURO ZONE MAR PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 56.2 V 55.3E (45th month of expansion and highest since Apr 2011)
(RU) RUSSIA CENTRAL BANK (CBR) CUTS 7-DAY AUCTION RATE BY 25BPS TO 9.75%; NOT EXPECTED
(US) FEB PRELIMINARY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: 1.7% V 1.3%E; DURABLES EX-TRANSPORTATION: 0.4% V 0.6%E
(US) MAR PRELIMINARY MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 53.4 V 54.8E (lowest since Oct)
(US) Atlanta Fed raises Q1 GDP to 1.0% from 0.9% on 3/16
(US) Labor Dept corrects jobless claims for March 18th week to 261K from 258K prior release
(US) New York Fed Nowcast: raises Q1 GDP forecast to 3.0% from 2.8% on 3/17; raises Q2 GDP forecast to 2.7% from 2.5%
(US) GOP congressional aide: GOP leaders are not confident they have votes to pass AHCA bill; now planning what to do next if healthcare bill fails - press
(US) US President Trump says the GOP has just pulled the healthcare bill - press

>>> US Close Dow -0,29% S&P -0/08% Nasdaq +0.19% Russell +0.09%

Closing Market Summary: Stocks Finish Flat After AHCA Vote Pulled

The major averages opened Friday with modest gains as investors were cautiously optimistic that the American Health Care Act would pass in the House. However, that positive sentiment faded as the day wore on and reports from Washington indicated that the GOP still hadn't acquired the necessary votes. In the end, the health care bill was pulled from consideration and the major averages finished mixed. The S&P 500 (-0.1%) settled just below its unchanged mark while the Dow (-0.3%) and the Nasdaq (+0.2%) closed on opposite sides of the benchmark index.

Today's relatively modest reaction to disappointing news likely had its roots in President Trump's ultimatum for House Republicans. The president made it clear that, if the American Health Care Act didn't make it out of the House on Friday, his administration would be moving on to tax reform. That notion is somewhat comforting to investors, but since health care reform went nowhere, the reliability of such a promise will certainly be put into question.

The House vote that was anticipated throughout the day tied investors' hands, leaving most sectors within 0.3% of their respective flat lines. The utilities (+0.4%), materials (-0.9%), and energy (-0.5%) spaces were an exception. The energy group's slip occurred despite crude oil's positive performance; the energy component settled 0.7% higher at $48.01/bbl.

In corporate news, Micron Technology (MU 28.43, +1.96) spiked 7.4% after reporting better than expected earnings and upbeat guidance. The positive sentiment caught on within the semiconductor industry, evidenced by the 0.8% increase in the PHLX Semiconductor Index, and provided some support for the top-weighted technology sector (+0.1%).

In the Treasury market, U.S. sovereign debt moved modestly higher, leaving the benchmark 10-yr yield lower by two basis points at 2.40%.

Economic data was limited to Durable Orders:

  • February durable goods orders rose 1.7%, which is above the 1.3% uptick expected by the consensus. The prior month's reading was revised to 2.3% (from 1.8%). Excluding transportation, durable orders increased 0.4% (consensus 0.7%) to follow the prior month's revised uptick of 0.2% (from -0.2%).
    • There were two key takeaways from the report: (1) business spending was relatively weak and (2) the upside surprise for February combined with the upward revisions for January should lead to some upward revisions to Q1 GDP forecasts

Investors will not receive any data on Monday.

  • Nasdaq Composite +8.3% YTD
  • S&P 500 +4.7% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +4.2% YTD
  • Russell 2000 -0.2% YTD


White House Acknowledges Health Bill Doesn't Have Votes Needed to Pass as Efforts Continue
The White House acknowledged that the GOP health-care bill doesn't currently have enough votes to pass, as House Speaker Paul Ryan and President Donald Trump discussed next steps.

In his afternoon briefing, Press Secretary Sean Spicer said the bill didn't currently have the support needed but that it was getting "closer and closer." A vote on the House health bill is set for around 3:30 p.m.