(ZH) Iran Claims To Have Proof Of "Direct US Support" For ISIS

Iran Claims To Have Proof Of "Direct US Support" For ISIS


Days after Trump issued a characteristically undiplomatic statement on last week's s terrorist attack in Iran by ISIS which killed 17 people and which the US president accused Tehran of basically provoking by stating that "states that sponsor terrorism risk falling victim to the evil they promote", which prompted Iran to slam the "repugnant WH statement... as Iranians counter terror backed by US clients.... Iranian people reject such US claims of friendship", on Sunday senior Iranian officials responded by accusing the US of supporting the Islamic State and effectively forming an alliance with it, claiming that Tehran possesses documents to prove the allegations.

Tbe deputy Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Major General Mostafa Izadi, said that Iran is "facing a proxy warfare in the region as a new trick by the arrogant powers against the Islamic Republic," according to Fars News Agency.

"As the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution (Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei) said, we possess documents and information showing the direct supports by the US imperialism for this highly disgusting stream (the ISIL) in the region which has destroyed the Islamic countries and created a wave of massacres and clashes," he added.

So far, however, Iran has yet to present any evidence.

Izadi's statement echoed remarks made by Iran’s Parliamentary Speaker Ali Larijani on Friday, who condemned the Wednesday terrorist attacks in Tehran, and said that Washington is behind most of the terrorist acts in the world.

"The United States has aligned itself with the ISIL in the region," Larijani said on Friday, addressing a funeral ceremony held for the victims of ISIL's Wednesday terrorist attacks on the Iranian parliament and the holy shrine of late Imam Khomeini in Tehran. Larijani’s was addressing a funeral ceremony of the victims of Wednesday terrorist attacks in Tehran. Larjani added that "The terrorist attacks indicated that the terrorist groups had failed to achieve their main goal and targeted the parliament and Imam Khomeini Mausoleum, finally resorted to martyring the innocent people and the staff at the parliament."

Thousands of Iranians had gathered to commemorate the dead, shouting “Death to Saudi Arabia” and “Death to America.”

Also on Friday Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei - whose clerical protege recently lost the Iranian presidential elections - said the attacks would only increase Tehran's hatred against the US and its “stooges,” including Saudi Arabia. He is not wrong.

FT : SoftBank’s Son uses rare structure for $93bn tech fund

SoftBank’s Son uses rare structure for $93bn tech fund
Investment vehicle backed by Saudis and Apple is unprecedented in scale and ambition

The giant technology fund launched late last year by the founder of Japan’s SoftBank has only one objective: to unleash a new era of innovation backed entirely by private capital.

With Masayoshi Son at the helm and $93bn in commitments, the size of the SoftBank Vision Fund is unprecedented and its stated ambitions are limitless.

That has been underscored by a frenetic deal spree in recent months that has seen SoftBank itself place a $5bn bet on China’s Didi Chuxing, the ride-hailing group, and take a $4bn stake in US chipmaker Nvidia.

But the Vision Fund, which will be managed by the technology group, also has an unconventional structure that is raising eyebrows among seasoned investment professionals. They warn that its reliance on leverage adds to the challenge facing Mr Son, who must find worthy — and sizeable — investments in a sector already awash with capital.

While almost all venture capital and buyout funds raise capital in the form of equity, the Vision Fund has asked its outside investors to contribute a big slug of debt along with their equity cheques.

SoftBank’s backers include a combined $60bn in commitments from the state investment funds of Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi as well as tech groups Apple, Qualcomm, Taiwan’s Foxconn and Japan’s Sharp, who together have contributed about $5bn.

Mr Son’s aim is to replicate his company’s annual rate of return, which sits at 44 per cent over the past 18 years. That success is largely thanks to lucrative bets on Chinese ecommerce group Alibaba and internet search engine Yahoo Japan, which have dramatically overshadowed his less impressive punts.

Mr Son, who is driven by a belief that he has a unique ability to predict future technology trends, has made clear he is ready for the gamble. “We only live once, so I want to think big. I have no intention of making small bets,” the 59-year-old entrepreneur told investors in May. “My life really starts from here.”

That debt provided by the Vision Fund’s investors will be in the form of preferred units, which will receive to an annual coupon of 7 per cent over the fund’s 12-year life cycle. While the preferred unit holders will eventually receive their principal back, they will only receive a return for the equity portion of their investments in the fund.

All outside backers of the fund are receiving 62 per cent in preferred units and the rest in equity, allowing them to reduce their downside risk, while still generating a good return.

In other words, the fund — created so that Mr Son could make investments without further encumbering SoftBank’s stretched balance sheet — is relying in part on pre-funded debt to back its deals.

If the fund reaches its stated $100bn target, about $44bn will be in these units, people familiar with the fund’s structure say, while $28bn will be comprised of the equity from outside backers.

SoftBank is the only party contributing just equity and has committed $28bn. But part of SoftBank’s equity is a 25 per cent stake in Arm Holdings, the UK chip designer it acquired last year for $32bn.

As fund manager, SoftBank will retain roughly 20 per cent of returns over an 8 per cent threshold, a standard construct for operators of private equity vehicles. It will also receive management fees ranging between 0.7 per cent to 1.3 per cent of the capital committed, depending on each investor.

SoftBank declined to comment. The details were shared by people who had been briefed on the fund’s structure and some were previously reported by the Wall Street Journal.

As the only investor with a pure equity exposure, SoftBank is shouldering the most risk from the Vision Fund and will have the greatest exposure to its fortunes.

Mitsunobu Tsuruo, analyst at Citigroup, says: “The structure reflects both Mr Son’s confidence and greed . . . He’s very bullish about the market outlook and he has successfully taken control of the fund while offering enough incentives to other investors.”

But advisers to major private equity and venture capital firms say such hybrid financing methods are rarely used. “This structure is not something that I have seen before in my 25 years of practising as a fund formation lawyer,” says Jason Glover, a partner at Simpson Thacher, the law firm.

One person involved with the fund’s creation says the structure was designed to address the challenges of placing major bets on technology start-ups. While traditional private equity funds often borrow against their purchases to boost their firepower, Mr Son would likely struggle to raise leverage against companies that have little to no cash flow.

“If you are buying an old industry, you can always raise the debt separately because of the cash flows from prior years and the ability to forecast future cash flows but here, a lot of the companies are new and don’t have that,” this person says.

SoftBank says that the Vision Fund, which will be overseen by Rajeev Misra, one of Mr Son’s key lieutenants, represents the company’s future and will have “preferred access to investments of $100m or more that meet the fund’s investment strategy”.

But Mr Son has also signalled that he will focus on the fund while delegating day-to-day management of SoftBank’s other businesses — such as Vodafone Japan and US telecoms group Sprint — to other executives. “I am going to be personally involved in every investment decision,” he said.

The hierarchy of SoftBank, in which Mr Son has final decision-making power over all investments, is at odds with the culture of traditional venture capital, where investment decisions are generally made by committee.

Yet Mr Son’s record is why the fund was able to attract the fund’s biggest outside backers who want to invest alongside him: Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund is putting in $45bn of which just over $17bn will be equity and Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala has placed $15bn in the fund of which just under $6bn in is in equity.

Meanwhile, in Silicon Valley, tech investors and advisers worry that the fresh wave of capital flowing in from the Vision Fund could prompt successful start-ups to stay private even longer and further delay initial public offerings.

“This is at a scale so much larger than anything that we see in the Valley . . . It is definitely unprecedented,” says one venture capital investor.

The Vision Fund’s need to pay annual coupons to the preferred units may also mean that it has a different focus from traditional venture capitalists, who repay their investors solely on the performance of the investments.

“It is one thing to raise a fund of this size. It is quite another to fully deploy it in high-quality investment opportunities,” says Mr Glover.


A route to mobile revolution

>>> What to look at today - 12th of June 2017

Investors are alarmed going into this week's key Fed meeting this Thursday, with expectations of a rate hike overshadowed by heightened volatility in the tech space on Friday when the Nasdaq plunged over 100 points. Ahead of Monday open, US equity futures are slightly lower while Asian indices start the week under pressure. Hang Seng is particularly vulnerable, falling over 1% to a 1-week low. French President Macron secured well over 400 seats in the first round of National Assembly elections - well above 330-360 expected - giving him the mandate to govern toward labor reform promised on campaign trail. In Italy too, the euroskeptic 5-Star faction was dealt a blow politically, failing to make the run-off vote in all 7 major cities holding local elections this weekend. Recall Italy presidential elections are expected early next year, but may be called sooner. EUR/USD firmed up marginally above 1.12. GBP/USD was also slightly higher as PM May has survived the first few days of her election disappointment, though there were more reports of Conservative lawmakers looking at a No Confidence vote coup.

Nikkei -0.60% Hang Seng -1.16% CSI +0.08% Shanghai -0.28%

Eur$ 1.1215 CNH 6.7868 CNY 6.7971 JPY 110.25 GBP 1.2769 CHF 0.9686 RUB$ 57.0251 WTI $46.11 +0.61%

S&P -0.13% EuroStoxx -0.25% Dax -0.30% FTSE -0.43% SMI -0.25%

Macro :
- Spain Weighs Suspending Short Positions, Cinco Dias Reports
- ETF That Focuses on Europe Ex-U.K. Starts Trading Monday
- Qatar Denounces Saudi-led Bloc’s Terror List, QNA says
- May Limits Cabinet Changes as Chaos Hangs Over Bid to Cling On
- Macron Set for Majority in Assembly After First Round of Voting

Keep an eye on :
- AAPL US : Apple Cut to Neutral at Mizuho, PT $150
- AB1 GY : Air Berlin Purchased Tickets ’Safe,’ COO Tells Rheinische Post
- AIR FP : Airbus Making Preparations for Future Combat Jet: Handelsblatt
- AF FP : Air France, Deutsche in Derivatives Contract on Amadeus Shares
- AKZA NA : Elliott Advisors has increased its stake in Akzo to over 5% (from 3.25%) - Dutch filing - Spokesperson for Elliott declined to comment on the reason for the stake increase - press
- AMS SM : Air France, Deutsche in Derivatives Contract on Amadeus Shares
- AMZN US : Amazon Plans to Sell Cars in Europe, Automobilwoche Reports
- CS FP : Axa Seeks India Reinsurance License, Press Trust of India Says
- BONE SUPORT IPO : Bonesupport Plans to Raise as Much as SEK575m in Stockholm IPO
- BP/ LN : BP, Sirius Petroleum Said In Talks On Nigeria Oil Deal: S. Times
- CALT IM : Caltagirone Family Plans Buyout Offer, Milan Delisting
- CRG IM : Carige Chairman Expects New CEO Appointment Soon: Il Sole
- DBK GY : Deutsche Bank Wealth Management Said Hiring 100 Managers: FT
- ENI IM : Eni Not Planning to Sell Chemical or Retail Divisions, CEO Says
- EVK GY : M&A to Stay Part of Evonik Strategy, CEO Kullmann Tells FAZ
- IAG LN : British Airways Cabin Crew Suspends Strike to Allow Talks: PA
- GLEN LN : Glencore Seeking Rio’s Coal & Allied Stake for $2.55 Billion
- MAC LAREN IPO : McLaren Automotive May Seek IPO by 2022, Sunday Times Says
- 1999 HK : Man Wah Holdings Bought Back 18.3m Shares for HK$123.7m June 9 (Muddy Waters Short )
- MS IM : Mediaset Won’t Make Offer for 2018-2021 Serie A Soccer TV Rights
- NOVN VX : Novartis Treatment Granted Orphan Drug Status by FDA
- NOVOB DC : Novo Nordisk Says Tresiba Cuts Blood Glucose Levels
- NOVOB DC : Novo to Be More Flexible on Biopharm Options, CEO Tells Borsen
- ORA FP : Orange Excludes Taking Stake in Canal Plus for the Moment: JDD
- PHA3 GY : Porsche Says Emission-Tests Results Are Within Legal Limits
- RIO LN : Glencore Seeking Rio’s Coal & Allied Stake for $2.55 Billion
- ROG VX : Roche ’Confident’ of Reaching Targets in 2017, CEO Tells SoZ
- ROG VX : Roche’s Cancer Immunotherapy Tecentriq Approved in Switzerland
- SAF FP : Safran to Drop Zodiac Deal If Share Issue Rejected: Investir
- SCVB SS : Dutch Defense Ministry Buys About 2,000 Scania Trucks: Telegraaf
- SSABA SS : SSAB Open to Sell Building Systems, DI Reports
- STL NO : Statoil Says Cap-X Injunction May Cost It More Than NOK700m: DN
- UBI IM : UBI Names Banca IMI, Santander, Mediobanca as Underwriters
- UBSN VX : UBS’s Weber Doesn’t See Broad-Based Deregulation in U.S.: Welt
- VOW3 GY : VW Is Considering Rehiring Opel’s Neumann, Reuters Reports, VW’s Osterloh Says Firing of Audi’s Stadler ‘Not Planned’: Bild
- VIV FP : Orange Excludes Taking Stake in Canal Plus for the Moment: JDD
- VOW3 GY : VW’s Ducati Targets 2018 Motorcycle Sales of 60,000: Corriere
- YNAP IM : U.K. Online Retailer Farfetch Said to Seek N.Y. Listing: Sky
- ZC FP : Safran to Drop Zodiac Deal If Share Issue Rejected: Investir

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 12th of June 2017

>>> Up
*Ashtead Raised to Buy at HSBC
*CYBG Raised to Hold at Jefferies, PT 254p
*GN Raised to Reduce at AlphaValue
*Heidelberger Druck Raised to Add at AlphaValue
*Ladbrokes Coral Raised to Hold at HSBC

>>> Down
*Indra Cut to Reduce at AlphaValue
*Innogy Cut to Underweight at Barclays, PT EU33
*Paddy Power Cut to Reduce at HSBC
*Saipem Cut to Reduce at AlphaValue
*TalkTalk Cut to Sell at Berenberg
*Terna Cut to Equal-weight at Barclays, PT EU5.10

>>> Initiation
*Coloplast New Neutral at Citi, PT DKK559
*ConvaTec New Neutral at Citi, PT 352p
*Gas Natural New Equal-weight at Barclays, PT EU22.50
*Iberdrola New Equal-weight at Barclays, PT EU7.35
*Smith & Nephew New Sell at Citi, PT 1,160p

>>> Call
>> Sector
*EUROPEAN TRAVEL SECTOR RAISED TO NEUTRAL AT CITI
*EUROPEAN HEALTH CARE SECTOR CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT AT CITI
*EUROPEAN OIL & GAS SECTOR CUT TO NEUTRAL AT CITI

>>> Asian Update

Asia Mid-Session Market Update: Macron gets the mandate to govern France with strong Parliament election showing; Japan economic data disappoint

***Friday US Session Highlights***
- (US) APR FINAL WHOLESALE INVENTORIES M/M: -0.5% V -0.3%E
- (US) House Dem Leader Pelosi: hopes there will be no debate on whether to raise the debt ceiling; hopes for vote by end of July
- (UK) PM May: I will now form a government; Brexit talks to start in 10 days as expected; to govern with support of Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) (as speculated)
- (UK) Scottish Min Sturgeon (SNP): PM May has lost all credibility and authority following election results

***Weekend corporate activity***
- NOBL.SG: Said to receive approaches for oil business - FT
- WDC: Reportedly to make a new offer at over $18B for Toshiba's chip business in final effort to win the assets - press

***Politics***
- (US) Sen Graham (R-SC): Senate will vote on a new round of Russia sanctions this week; Warns Pres Trump not to veto it - press
- (RU) Russian opposition leader Navalny organizing protest marches on Monday; Thousands of people expected to take part - press

***Key economic data:***
- (JP) JAPAN APR MACHINE ORDERS M/M: -3.1% (first decline in 3 months) V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 2.7% V 7.3%E
- (JP) JAPAN MAY PPI (CGPI) M/M: 0.0% (7-month low) V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 2.1% V 2.2%E
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND MAY CARD SPENDING RETAIL M/M: -0.4% V 0.2%E; TOTAL M/M: -0.2% V +0.4% PRIOR
- (NZ) ANZ: New Zealand May non-tradable inflation m/m 0.2% v 0.0% prior, y/y: 2.3% v 2.2% prior

***Asia Session Notable Observations***
- Investors are alarmed going into this week's key Fed meeting this Thursday, with expectations of a rate hike overshadowed by heightened volatility in the tech space on Friday when the Nasdaq plunged over 100 points. Ahead of Monday open, US equity futures are slightly lower while Asian indices start the week under pressure. Hang Seng is particularly vulnerable, falling over 1% to a 1-week low.
- FX majors are in narrow range despite some constructive weekend developments overseas. Political risk has been dialed back to a simmer in Europe. French President Macron secured well over 400 seats in the first round of National Assembly elections - well above 330-360 expected - giving him the mandate to govern toward labor reform promised on campaign trail. In Italy too, the euroskeptic 5-Star faction was dealt a blow politically, failing to make the run-off vote in all 7 major cities holding local elections this weekend. Recall Italy presidential elections are expected early next year, but may be called sooner. EUR/USD firmed up marginally above 1.12. GBP/USD was also slightly higher as PM May has survived the first few days of her election disappointment, though there were more reports of Conservative lawmakers looking at a No Confidence vote coup. NZD/USD was down some 20 pips from the highs below $0.72 after NZIER cut New Zealand FY16/17 GDP forecast from 3.4% to 3.0%.
- Even though South Korea's new president Moon is increasingly looking more conciliatory with China on the issue of North Korea, Pyongyang's KCNA threatened that it wasn’t far away from test-firing an ICBM w/the potential of hitting the continental US. President Trump has long maintained a test of this magnitude threat would represent crossing a red line.
- Ahead of this Friday's BOJ meeting, Japan's 2nd tier data continues to give little justification for rumored discussion about QE exit process. Forward-looking Machine Orders registered its first decline in 3 months, while the corporate goods index did not rise m/m for the first time in 7 months.

***Speakers and Press***
China
- (CN) China Financial News: Slower IPO pace will improve investor sentiment
- (CN) China Commerce Ministry reportedly to "substantially" reduce restrictions on foreign access to China market - Chinese press

Australia / New Zealand
- (NZ) NZ Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) cuts New Zealand FY16/17 GDP forecast from 3.4% to 3.0%

Korea
- (KR) North Korea is close to test-firing an ICBM with potential of reaching US - KCNA (update)
- (KR) South Korea Finance Ministry said to submit a 2018 budget plan to Parliament by Sept 1st; Estimated to see 6% increase in spending from 2017 - Korean press
- (KR) Bank of Korea Gov Lee: Monetary policy needs to stay accommodative to support the economy, but adjustments should be reviewed if growth remains strong - speech for Bank of Korea's 67th anniversary

***Asian Equity Indices/Futures (23:30ET)***
- Nikkei -0.4%, Hang Seng -1.2%, Shanghai -0.5%, ASX200 closed, Kospi -0.9%
- Equity Futures: S&P500 -0.2%; Nasdaq -0.3%, Dax -0.1%, FTSE100 -0.4%

***FX ranges/Commodities/Fixed Income (23:30ET)***
- EUR 1.1195-1.1215; JPY 110.15-110.45; AUD 0.7520-0.7535; NZD 0.7195-0.7215; GBP 1.2725-1.2765
- Aug Gold -0.2% at 1,269/oz; July Crude Oil +0.3% at $46.09/brl; July Copper -0.4% at $2.64/lb
- (CN) PBOC SETS YUAN MID POINT AT 6.7948 V 6.7971 PRIOR
- (US) Weekly Baker Hughes US Rig Count: 927 v 916 w/w (+1.2%) (21st straight weekly rise)
- (CN) PBOC to inject combined CNY40B v CNY60B prior
- (KR) South Korea sells 5-yr Govt bonds; avg yield 1.885% v 1.925% prior

***Asia equities / Notables / movers***
Hong Kong
- Evergrande (3333) -0.2%; Vanke +0.7%; Evergrade to sell its 14% stake in China Vanke to Shenzhen Motor Group for CNY29.2B
- China Resources Land (1109) -1.7%; May sales

Japan
- Toshiba (6502) +7.0%; Western Digital to make a new offer at over $18B for Toshiba's chip business in final effort to win the assets - press
- FujiFilm (4901) +1.7%; Reports FY17 Net profit ¥131.5B vs ¥112B prior forecast, Op profit ¥172B v ¥192B prior forecast

The Economist : America is no longer a force for stability in the Gulf



From: LAURENT CHEKROUN (MAKOR SECURITIES LO) At: 06/11/17 21:35:29
Subject: The Economist : America is no longer a force for stability in the Gulf
America is no longer a force for stability in the Gulf

The blacklisting of Qatar is a sign of President Trump’s new world disorder

AMERICA’S president got on so well last month with King Salman of Saudi Arabia that he has embraced the monarch’s foreign-policy goals. Sunni Saudi Arabia detests Shia Iran, its chief regional rival. So does Donald Trump. He also appears to share the Saudi view that the most egregious bankroller of terrorism in the Middle East is the tiny sheikhdom of Qatar. He applauded when, on June 5th, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates severed diplomatic ties with Qatar, as well as land, sea and air links. The Gulf states gave Qatari citizens 14 days to leave. Ludicrously, the UAE declared that anyone publishing expressions of support for Qatar can be jailed for up to 15 years. Mr Trump tweeted: “Perhaps this will be the beginning of the end to the horror of terrorism!”

Though tiny, Qatar matters. It is the world’s largest producer of liquefied natural gas and an airline hub. It is also host to Al Jazeera, the nearest the Middle East has to an uncensored broadcaster (so long as it does not criticise the Qatari monarchy). It has good ties with Iran, with which it exploits a vast gasfield. It is supportive, too, of the (Sunni) Muslim Brotherhood, the most popular face of political Islam. All this makes Saudi Arabia hate it. The Saudi regime has tried in the past to bend Qatar to its will, but failed. Qatar hosts a large American airbase, which until now has made it feel safe. But with Mr Trump in the White House, nobody is now so sure.

No concrete reasons have been given for the blacklisting of Qatar. There is lots of chatter that wealthy Qataris fund terrorism. This accusation, which is also levelled at rich Saudis, is unproven, though the Financial Times reports that Qatar paid $1bn to Iran and an al-Qaeda affiliate for the release of Qatari royals who were taken hostage while on a falcon-hunting trip to Iraq. A billion-dollar ransom would buy a lot of explosives.
The spat has split the Gulf Co-operation Council, hitherto a force for stability in an unstable region. It may drive Qatar, as well as Kuwait and Oman, the other two members of the GCC, who pointedly declined to support the Saudi move, further into the arms of Iran. Tempers may eventually cool, but some observers worry that the price of Saudi Arabia backing down will be the muzzling of those pesky Al Jazeera journalists.

Mr Trump’s support for Saudi actions also damages America’s credibility. It suggests that, under him, the superpower can abandon its allies after a brief chat with their enemies. “During my recent trip to the Middle East I stated that there can no longer be funding of Radical Ideology. Leaders pointed to Qatar—look!” tweeted Mr Trump on June 6th. The sober foreign-policy types who cling on in his administration are scrambling to downplay such undiplomatic words and calm tempers. Perhaps recognising his error, Mr Trump offered his services as a mediator the following day.

Now anything goes

Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, Egypt’s autocratic president, has also decided that Mr Trump is an American leader who will let him persecute his enemies without hindrance. On May 23rd, two days after the two men met and praised each other in Riyadh, Mr Sisi had a potential opponent arrested for allegedly making an indecent hand gesture at a rally five months earlier. On May 25th the government blocked access to the websites of Mada Masr, Egypt’s leading liberal newspaper, and those of 20 other media outlets, including Al Jazeera and Huffpost Arabic. In Bahrain the authorities killed five people and arrested 286 more in a raid on the home of a Shia cleric; shortly after that, they dissolved the main secular opposition party. America would once have objected to all this. No longer—and that is a recipe for a less stable Middle East.

>>> What to look at this Week End - 10th & 11th of June 2017

Weekly Performance
Dow +0.31% S&P -0.30% Nasdaq -1.55% Russell +1.16% Mexico -0.48% (+2.31% in $) BRazil -0.48% (-2.02% in $) Nikkei -0.81% Hang Seng +0.30% CSI+2.57& Shanghai +1.70% EuroStoxx -0.16% (-0.94% in $) FTSE -0.27% (-1.41% in $) CAC-0.82% Dax +1.19% Ibex +0.66% MIB +0.93% SMI -1.98%
US stock markets digested a host of headline risk late in the week, with the Dow remaining at lofty levels while the Nasdaq sold off into Friday afternoon. Geopolitics largely ruled the roost, with terrorist attacks in London and Tehran, a Saudi rift with Qatar, former FBI Director Comey's testimony, and a surprise result in the UK election all registering on traders' radar screens. The ECB boosted its economic growth outlook for the Eurozone midweek, but kept interest rates on hold, though Mario Draghi said the ECB would continue its bond-buying program and will remain in the market for 'a long time.' The EUR/USD fell below 1.1200 on Thursday to hit its lowest point in June, and later that evening the pound weakened sharply when it became clear the UK election would result in a hung parliament. Crude was down ~3% on the week, hurt by US inventory builds, despite diplomatic turmoil between the Gulf states. Treasury yields lifted marginally and gold pared back its recent gains as safe haven assets came under pressure.Stocks were mostly higher, but large cap tech sold off on heavy volume on Friday, with profit-taking apparently triggered by a short seller note on Nvidia. The late drop in stocks lifted the VIX volatility index off of a two-decade low.For the week, the DJIA gained 0.3%, while the S&P slipped 0.3% and the Nasdaq lost 1.6%.

Macro :
- ETF That Focuses on Europe Ex-U.K. Starts Trading Monday
- Qatar Denounces Saudi-led Bloc’s Terror List, QNA says
- May Limits Cabinet Changes as Chaos Hangs Over Bid to Cling On
- Macron Set for Majority in Assembly After First Round of Voting

Keep an eye on :
- AB1 GY : Air Berlin Purchased Tickets ’Safe,’ COO Tells Rheinische Post
- AIR FP : Airbus Making Preparations for Future Combat Jet: Handelsblatt
- AF FP : Air France, Deutsche in Derivatives Contract on Amadeus Shares
- AKZA NA : Elliott Advisors has increased its stake in Akzo to over 5% (from 3.25%) - Dutch filing - Spokesperson for Elliott declined to comment on the reason for the stake increase - press
- AMS SM : Air France, Deutsche in Derivatives Contract on Amadeus Shares
- AMZN US : Amazon Plans to Sell Cars in Europe, Automobilwoche Reports
- BONE SUPORT IPO : Bonesupport Plans to Raise as Much as SEK575m in Stockholm IPO
- BP/ LN : BP, Sirius Petroleum Said In Talks On Nigeria Oil Deal: S. Times
- CALT IM : Caltagirone Family Plans Buyout Offer, Milan Delisting
- CRG IM : Carige Chairman Expects New CEO Appointment Soon: Il Sole
- DBK GY : Deutsche Bank Wealth Management Said Hiring 100 Managers: FT
- ENI IM : Eni Not Planning to Sell Chemical or Retail Divisions, CEO Says
- EVK GY : M&A to Stay Part of Evonik Strategy, CEO Kullmann Tells FAZ
- IAG LN : British Airways Cabin Crew Suspends Strike to Allow Talks: PA
- GLEN LN : Glencore Seeking Rio’s Coal & Allied Stake for $2.55 Billion
- MAC LAREN IPO : McLaren Automotive May Seek IPO by 2022, Sunday Times Says
- MS IM : Mediaset Won’t Make Offer for 2018-2021 Serie A Soccer TV Rights
- NOVN VX : Novartis Treatment Granted Orphan Drug Status by FDA
- NOVOB DC : Novo Nordisk Says Tresiba Cuts Blood Glucose Levels
- ORA FP : Orange Excludes Taking Stake in Canal Plus for the Moment: JDD
- PHA3 GY : Porsche Says Emission-Tests Results Are Within Legal Limits
- RIO LN : Glencore Seeking Rio’s Coal & Allied Stake for $2.55 Billion
- ROG VX : Roche ’Confident’ of Reaching Targets in 2017, CEO Tells SoZ
- SAF FP : Safran to Drop Zodiac Deal If Share Issue Rejected: Investir
- SCVB SS : Dutch Defense Ministry Buys About 2,000 Scania Trucks: Telegraaf
- STL NO : Statoil Says Cap-X Injunction May Cost It More Than NOK700m: DN
- UBI IM : UBI Names Banca IMI, Santander, Mediobanca as Underwriters
- UBSN VX : UBS’s Weber Doesn’t See Broad-Based Deregulation in U.S.: Welt
- VOW3 GY : VW Is Considering Rehiring Opel’s Neumann, Reuters Reports, VW’s Osterloh Says Firing of Audi’s Stadler ‘Not Planned’: Bild
- VIV FP : Orange Excludes Taking Stake in Canal Plus for the Moment: JDD
- VOW3 GY : VW’s Ducati Targets 2018 Motorcycle Sales of 60,000: Corriere
- YNAP IM : U.K. Online Retailer Farfetch Said to Seek N.Y. Listing: Sky
- ZC FP : Safran to Drop Zodiac Deal If Share Issue Rejected: Investir

(ZH) Hedge Fund CIO: "$100BN Of Tech Stocks Got Sold And The S&P Was Unchanged.

Hedge Fund CIO: "$100BN Of Tech Stocks Got Sold And The S&P Was Unchanged. Not Sure How That Happens"

The start of another week is upon us, which means it is time for choice excerpts from the latest letter to clients by One River Asset Management CIO Eric Peters, who today writes about Brexit, the "new generals" in the market (more in a later post), rising populism in a world of tech "monopolies", modern day robber barons, and much more.
We will have more from today's letter shortly, but for now here is Peters on a topic on everyone's minds, volatility, and what Friday's Nasdaq "air pocket" means:


Beep Beep

“Volatility didn’t really move,” said Roadrunner, following the Nasdaq’s Friday afternoon air-pocket decline.

“There were no real flows, no one was buying options,” continued the market’s biggest volatility trader. “I’d expect this to continue for a bit at least.” These kinds of things don’t usually end in a single day.

“$100bln of tech stocks got sold and drove the Nasdaq 100 down 4% with the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 unchanged. Not sure how that happens,” said Roadrunner. “But summer is here, people leave at noon, and liquidity is thinning out.”

“The idea of a ‘new normal’ in volatility markets is utter nonsense,” continued Roadrunner. “There is never anything new when it comes to markets.”

We are just at that point in the cycle where volatility collapses - at the end, it always does. “We’re late in a bull market, and like every bull the scariest moves are to the downside.”

Nivida ($89bln mkt cap) fell 15% on Fri from intraday high-to-low, which left it +4% on the week and +46% on the year. He glanced quickly left, right, up. “And in bear markets, the most frightening moves are to the upside.”

(ZH) Is Another Spanish Bank About To Bite The Dust?

Is Another Spanish Bank About To Bite The Dust?

Stockholders and junior bondholders fear another “bail-in.”
After its most tumultuous week since the bailout days of 2012, Spain’s banking system is gripped by a climate of fear, uncertainty and distrust. Rather than allaying investor nerves, the shotgun bail-in and sale of Banco Popular to Santander on Tuesday has merely intensified them. For the first time since the Global Financial Crisis, shareholders and subordinate bondholders of a failing Spanish bank were not bailed out by taxpayers; they took risks in order to make a buck, and they bore the consequences. That’s how it should be. But bank investors don’t like not getting bailed out.
Now they’re worrying it could happen again. As Popular’s final days showed, once confidence and trust in a bank vanishes, it’s almost impossible to restore them. The fear has now spread to Spain’s eighth largest lender, Liberbank, a mini-Bankia that was spawned in 2011 from the forced marriage of three failed cajas (savings banks), Cajastur, Caja de Extremadura and Caja Cantabria.
This creature’s shares were sold to the public in May 2013 at an IPO price of €0.40. By April 2014, they were trading above €2, a massive 400% gain. But by April 2015, shares started sinking. By May 2017, they were trading at around €1.20.
But since the bail-in of Popular, Liberbank’s shares have seriously crashed as panicked investors fled. Scenting fresh blood, short sellers were piling in. On Friday alone, shares plunged another 17%. At one point, they were down 38% before bouncing at the close of trading, much of it driven by the bank’s own share buybacks:
In the last three weeks a whole year’s worth of steadily rising gains on the stock market have been completely wiped out. The main causes of concern are the bank’s high risk profile and low coverage rate. By the close of the first quarter of 2017, Liberbank’s default rate had reached 13%, over three percentage points higher than the national average (9.8%), while its unproductive asset coverage rate was just 42.1%, compared to 47% for Banco Sabadell, 48% for Bankia, 50% for CaixaBank and 55% for Unicaja.
Worse still, the vast bulk of the bank’s unproductive assets are real estate investments. After Popular, it is the Spanish entity with most exposure to toxic real estate assets, according to the financial daily El Confidencial — a remarkable feat given the bank already had the lion’s share of its impaired real estate assets transferred onto the balance sheets of Spain’s “bad bank,” Sareb.
It’s not just the bank’s shares that are feeling the pressure. With the memory of what happened to holders of Popular’s junior, subordinate and convertible debt still fresh in their mind, investors are divesting their exposure to Liberbank’s subordinate debt. On Friday alone the bank’s most recent issuance, dating back to March 2017, generated losses of 9.8%.
Liberbank’s management has responded the only way it can — with a slew of denials. The bank is nothing like Popular, it says. It is solidly solvent and its deposits are safe, which is probably true: even the deposits of Popular’s customers are now safe despite the fact the bank had hemmorhaged €18 billion of deposits in the last few weeks of its truncated existence. It was this frantic run on deposits that ultimately sealed its fate, prompting the ECB to conclude that the bank was “failing or likely to fail.”
Banco Popular’s demise is a stark reminder that Europe’s banking woes are far from resolved, despite the trillions of euros thrown at them. “The message the market is sending is that you have to buy solvent banks and stay away from those that pose high risks,” said Rafael Alonso, an analyst at Bankinter, one of Spain’s more solvent banks.

Another Spanish bank that could be considered to pose high risks is Unicaja, the product of another merger of failed cajas that is (or at least was) scheduled to launch its IPO some time in June or July. As things currently stand, the timing could not be worse. The greater the uncertainty over Liberbank’s future, the lower the projected valuation of Unicaja’s IPO falls. Before Popular’s forced bail-in and acquisition, the Unicaja was valued at around €2.3 billion; now, just days later, it’s valued at less than €1.9 billion. If the trend continues, the IPO will almost certainly be shelved.
As for Liberbank, if things don’t improve soon and investor nerves aren’t steadied, it too could find itself on the ECB’s Single Resolution Board’s chopping board. Perhaps it too will be sold for €1 to a much larger bank that, like Santander, is able to raise billions of euros of new funds at the drop of a hat, with other too-big-to-fail banks like UBS and Citibank more than happy to lend a helping hand. And just like that, another smaller bank would bite the dust while the biggest banks get bigger and ever more dominating in the market.
Many Banco Popular investors wiped out. Taxpayers off the hook. What it means for Italy