Closing Market Summary: Stocks Settle Mixed Following Amazon EarningsEquity indices finished Friday's session mixed; the Dow (+0.2%) advanced to a new record high for the third day in a row while the S&P 500 (-0.1%) and the Nasdaq (-0.1%) settled a tick below their unchanged marks. All three major averages finished near their best marks of the day. For the week, the S&P 500 finished flat.
The Nasdaq opened Friday's session with a sizable loss of 0.7% after one of its most influential components--Amazon (AMZN 1020.04, -25.96)--missed earnings expectations. The online retailer was down as much as 4.3% in early action, but, like the Nasdaq, the company was able to trim its loss a bit, eventually settling lower by 2.5%.
Amazon's negative performance took a toll on the consumer discretionary sector (-0.7%), which finished near the bottom of the day's leaderboard. In addition, coffee giant Starbucks (SBUX 54.00, -5.50) weighed on the consumer discretionary space--plunging 9.2% to its lowest level in six months--after the company missed top-line estimates and issued disappointing guidance.
The consumer staples sector (-0.9%) finished at the very bottom of the sector standings with tobacco giant Altria (MO 66.94, -7.02) leading the retreat. MO shares sold off sharply after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration announced a plan to reduce nicotine levels in cigarettes. Altria reclaimed a chunk of its initial decline, but still ended the day with a solid loss of 9.5%.
Meanwhile, the energy sector (-0.2%) settled roughly in line with the broader market despite a solid performance from crude oil, which climbed 1.4% to $49.74/bbl. For the week, WTI crude advanced 8.7%, which marks its biggest one-week rally of the year.
Within the energy sector, Dow components Exxon Mobil (XOM 79.60, -1.23) and Chevron (CVX 108.12, +2.01) saw a mixed response to their latest earnings reports; CVX jumped 1.9% after reporting better than expected revenues while XOM dropped 1.5% after missing earnings expectations.
The top-weighted technology sector (-0.1%) also finished roughly in line with the broader market. Intel (INTC 35.31, +0.34) advanced 1.0% after beating both top and bottom line estimates and issuing upbeat guidance. However, the PHLX Semiconductor Index dropped 0.4% despite Intel's positive performance.
In total, eight of the eleven sectors finished in the red with losses ranging from 0.1% to 0.9%. The health care (+0.5%), financials (unch), and industrials (+0.2%) spaces were the three advancers.
Merck (MRK 64.11, +0.42) helped the health care sector finish at the top of the leaderboard after the company reported better than expected earnings and revenues; MRK shares settled higher by 0.7%. It's also worth noting that the Senate failed to pass a 'skinny' repeal of the Affordable Care Act in a tight 49-51 vote.
As for industrials, transports bounced back on Friday after sending the Dow Jones Transportation Average on a 3.1% plunge in the prior session. The DJTA finished Friday higher by 0.4%.
It's also worth noting that North Korea launched another intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on Friday, marking Pyongyang's 11th ballistic missile test this year. Stocks did not react to the news.
Outside of the stock market, Treasuries rallied in a curve-flattening trade, leaving the 2-yr yield (1.36%) and the 10-yr yield (2.29%) lower by one basis point and three basis points, respectively. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (93.15, -0.62) dropped 0.7% to a fresh 15-month low.
Reviewing Friday's economic data, which included the advance estimate for second quarter GDP, the second quarter Employment Cost Index, and the final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July:
- Advance second quarter GDP pointed to an expansion of 2.6%, while the consensus expected a reading of 2.8%. The second quarter GDP Deflator came in at 1.0%, which is below the consensus of 1.3%.
- The key takeaway from the Q2 GDP report, then, is that the average for the first half of 2017 was subpar at 1.9%, which should continue to keep any concerns about the prospect of a near-term rate hike from the Fed under wraps.
- The second quarter Employment Cost Index rose 0.5%, while the consensus expected an increase of 0.6%.
- The key takeaway from the report is that there was a moderation in year-over-year growth rates for wages and salaries, reflecting the lack of wage-based inflation pressure that has helped keep consumer spending activity modest and overall inflation low.
- The final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July rose to 93.4 (consensus 93.1) from 93.1 in the preliminary reading.
- Despite the small decline, the key takeaway from the report is the indication that the Sentiment Index is still higher in the first seven months of 2017 than in any other year since 2004.
On Monday, investors will receive just two pieces of economic data--July Chicago PMI (consensus 60) and June Pending Home Sales (consensus 1.1%). The two reports will be released at 9:45 ET and 10:00 ET, respectively.
- Nasdaq Composite +18.4% YTD
- S&P 500 +10.4% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average +10.5% YTD
- Russell 2000 +5.3% YTD
WIX (WIX: US) 2Q17 results:
Strong numbers expecting more, Reiterating Hold;
After a few consecutive quarters of beat & raise, 2Q was "just” an in-line quarter, resulting with negative share reaction on the afterhours (-8 %). Collections of $117.1m were modestly above the high end of the company’s prior guidance ($116-$117m), and revenues of $103.5m slightly beat market consensus ($102m). Management reaffirmed its guidance for 2017. We expect negative share reaction today as we believe WIX share price reflects higher expectations for the rest of the year. We note that we don’t believe this quarter changes anything in WIX thesis, though we will be following more closely on a few key metrics over the coming quarters.
Results summary:WIX reported revenues of $103.5m and collections of $117.1m, an increase of 51% and 44% y/y. Growth was driven primarily by the U.S market and Europe, and by continued adoption of vertical offerings (the company noted on the call that ~30% of new subs now purchase vertical offering vs ~15% two years ago). Free cash flow for 2Q17 was $17.4m (+71% y/y).
Management reaffirmed its May guidance for revenues in the range of $421-$423m (+45.5% y/y at mid-point), Non-GAAP free cash flow of $67-$68m and Collections of $473-$477m (+38.5% y/y at mid-point). For 3Q17 management guided revenues in the range of $109m-$110m roughly in line with the street estimate (+47.5% y/y at mid-point), and collections in the range of $117m-$118m (+43% y/y growth at mid-point). Consistent with the end of 1Q, fully diluted share count is expected to be 57-58m shares. We note that the guidance implies collections growth will decelerate to 30% y/y in 4Q17 vs 46% in 4Q16.
Valuation and Rating:We maintain our $78 PT which is based on 7x EV/Non-GAAP revenues 2018E (collections). This multiple reflects a premium of ~20% to peers (SAAS companies) which we believe is appropriate, given WIX strong performance and its unique and innovative product offering. We also reaffirm our Hold rating as we believe large part of its future growth is already priced into the shares and following yesterday’s results and the launch of WIX Code (which supported the recent positive momentum), we don’t see for now near term catalysts for further multiple expansion.
WIX Code: Two days prior to the earnings release the company unveiled its new product WIX Code (in beta) – a new platform for web developers that will allow to easily build advanced web pages with complex functionalities such as dynamic pages, database connectivity, and application forms. The new platform aims to enter WIX into a whole new fragmented market which is currently dominated by open source technologies. Though WIX Code is probably not going to impact 2017 results (and its pricing is still not known), we believe it has a huge potential going forward.
Second quarter highlights:
- Subscriptions Add – WIX added 192k premium subscribers in 2Q compared to 208k in 1Q17 and 183k in 2Q16 making it WIX’s second highest quarter ever. We would like to remind that 1Q is traditionally the strongest quarter in terms of seasonality, and we didn’t expect subscription adds in 2Q to exceed the record number of 1Q17. However, 2Q adds reflect only ~5% increase y/y due to tough comps (+22% in 1Q) and brings the total number of premium subscribers to 2.9m (+35% y/y).
- Strong cohort retention – in 2Q 37% of new subscriptions were from users registered in the current quarter (vs 41% in 1Q17), while 63% came from prior quarter user cohorts, demonstrating continued cohort retention behavior. Registered users grew by ~5.5 million users to 109m total at the end of the quarter (+24% y/y). Collections per new annual sub in the U.S was consistent with 1Q17 and reflects an increase of 8% y/y (vs 11% y/y in 1Q17).
- Operational performance– Non-GAAP S&M expenses were 39% of collections, ~400 basis point lower y/y. Management reaffirmed sales and marketing spending of 40% to 41% of collections for the full year 2017, (vs 44% in 2016). R&D in the quarter was 25% of collections vs. 26% in 2Q16. The strong leverage resulted with free cash flow of $17.4m, (+71% y/y). As of June, the company has a net cash balance of ~185m.
- Annual vs monthly subscriptions - Annual (or longer) subscriptions accounted for 67% of new subscriptions (65% in 1Q17). Of the total subscription base, 82% are annual, consistent with 1Q17.
Main risks – Slowdown in subscriptions adds, increased S&M spending in order to add registered users and convert them to subscriptions (such as heavy promotional discounts), increased competition and currency fluctuations.
Full report attached!
Dafna Yagur | Head of Research (Israel)
Makor Capital
Direct +972 3 5453747
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In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:
- ELLI -22.7%, BOJA -12.1%, NUVA -11.6%, (also CFO Quentin Blackford is resigning to pursue another opportunity outside the spine industry effective August 25; President and COO Jason Hannon is stepping down from his position to pursue other interests), PDFS -11.6%, MOBL-10.8%, FLS -10.7%, (also identified in Q2 accounting errors which were primarily limited to two of its non-U.S. sites), WIX -10%, CRAY -10%,KMDA -9.2%, (also commences common stock offering), GT -8.4%,EGHT -8.1%, KNL -7.8%, ECHO -7.8%, SBUX -7%, MULE -6.7%, FLEX-6.4%, MSTR -6%, INT -5.2%, ATEN -4.9%, WDC -4.2%, GHL -4%, BJRI-3.7%, ACTG -3.6%, BVN -3.6%, BVN -3.6%, AMZN -3.2%, EA -3.1%, UBS-3.1%, YNDX -3%, DECK -2.7%, BOFI -2.6%, (also enters into an agreement with H&R Block to be the exclusive provider of interest-free Refund Advance loans to their customers during the 2018 tax season), HRC -2.6%, ATUS -2.4%, BT -2.3%, ATR -1.7%, XPER -1.5%,TNDM -1.3%, MSCC -1.1%, MTD -0.9%
- DEST -22.3% (Destination Maternity terminates merger agreement with Orchestra-Prémaman S.A. entered into in December of 2016)
- ATNM -29.8% (to offer common shares and warrants)
- TTPH -5.3% (prices 10 mln shares of common stock at $6.50 per share)
- WWE -5% (attributed to block trade pricing)
- ATVI -1.1% (in sympathy with EA)
- X -3.4% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup)
- VC -1% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Gabelli & Co)
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:
- TVTY +16.9%, SAM +15.2%, PFG +12.5%, FSLR +12.1%, IMGN +9.5%,GIMO +9.3%, AGRX +8.7%, ALDW +8.6%, LOGM +7.6%, UCTT +6.4%, (also President and CEO Jim Scholhamer to take leave of absence starting July 31 for approximately 2 months to address a treatable medical condition), AAN +5.9%, BIDU +5.4%, PTX +5.2%, COHU +4.4%,ALGN +4%, COLM +4%, LYB +3.6%, KTOS +3.1%, TACO +3%, TRP +2.8%,CLD +2.6%, SNMX +2.6%, CPLP +2.6%, CY +2.5%, LAD +2.4%, GLPG+2.2%, SC +2.2%, FBP +2.2%, EXPE +2%, (Expedia and Traveloka Holding a leading Southeast Asian online travel company, announced today that Expedia made a $350 million primary minority investment in Traveloka), DAIO +1.8%, CS +1.8%, MITK +1.5%, HIG +1.4%, COL +1.3%,INTC +1.2%, IMPV +1.1%, CVA +1.1%, LPLA +1%, CPT +1%, TRVG +1%,ERJ +1%
- WOW +2% (ticking higher on reports that Verizon is in talks to acquire WideOpenWest's Chicago fiber network)
- ICHR +1.2% (acquires Cal-Weld; expected to be immediately accretive to earnings)
- SPWR +3.5%, CSIQ +3.4%, JKS +2.4%, RGSE +2.2%, TAN +2.1%, VSLR+0.9%,
- KOOL +13.4% (USPTO issues the co patent that 'significantly strengthens' the intellectual property position surrounding its proprietary automation technology)
- CYCC +10.5% (Eastern Capital discloses 29.7% active stake)
- AGRX +8.7% (FDA has accepted for review the Company's NDA resubmission for Twirla (AG200-15), an investigational low-dose combined hormonal contraceptive patch)
- NLNK +2.4% (updates on its clinical development program for indoximod; also reported earnings)
- KANG +1.3% (announces its partnership with BAHEAL Intelligent Technology to introduce IBM Watson for Oncology cognitive computing solutions into iKang service platform)
- DPZ +0.9% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Longbow)
- VFC +0.7% (upgraded to Positive from Neutral at Susquehanna)
- Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.77 per share, including impairments and other non-cash charges totaling $430 mln, partially offset by gains on asset sales of $160 mln, may not be comparable to the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.87; revenues rose 17.8% year/year to $34.48 bln vs the $32.77 bln Capital IQ Consensus
- Co said it's delivering higher production with lower capital and operating expenditures
- Worldwide net oil-equivalent production was 2.78 mln barrels per day in second quarter 2017, compared with 2.53 mln barrels per day from a year ago
- Production increases were noted from major capital projects, base business, and shale and tight properties, and lower maintenance-related downtime. These impacts were partially offset by normal field declines, production entitlement effects in several locations and the effect of 2016 asset sales
- U.S. upstream operations incurred a loss of $102 mln in second quarter 2017 compared with a loss of $1.11 bln from a year earlier
- The improvement reflected lower impairment charges, higher crude oil and natural gas realizations, higher gains on asset sales, and lower operating expenses
- The company's average sales price per barrel of crude oil and natural gas liquids was $41 in second quarter 2017, up from $36 a year earlier. The average sales price of natural gas was $2.32 per thousand cubic feet in second quarter 2017, compared with $1.21 in last year's second quarter
- International upstream operations earned $955 mln in second quarter 2017 compared with a loss of $1.35 bln a year ago
- The increase in earnings reflected lower impairment charges, partially offset by higher depreciation expenses from increased production. The improvement also included lower tax items, higher natural gas sales volumes, higher crude oil realizations and volumes, and lower operating expenses. Foreign currency effects decreased earnings by $4 mln in the 2017 second quarter, compared with an increase of $329 mln a year earlier. The average sales price for crude oil and natural gas liquids in second quarter 2017 was $45 per barrel, up from $40 a year earlier. The average price of natural gas was $4.39 per thousand cubic feet in the quarter, compared with $3.93 in last year's second quarter
- U.S. downstream operations earned $634 mln in second quarter 2017 compared with earnings of $537 mln a year earlier
- The increase in earnings was primarily due to higher margins on refined product sales and lower operating expenses. Partially offsetting these effects were the absence of second quarter 2016 asset sale gains and higher tax items
- Refinery crude oil input in second quarter 2017 decreased 3 percent from the year-ago period to 928,000 barrels per day. Refined product sales of 1.24 mln barrels per day decreased 2 percent from second quarter 2016
- International downstream operations earned $561 mln in second quarter 2017 compared with $741 mln a year earlier
- The decrease in earnings was primarily due to the absence of second quarter 2016 gains on asset sales. Higher margins on refined product sales partially offset the decrease in earnings. Foreign currency effects increased earnings by $3 mln compared with a decrease of $26 mln in last year's second quarter. Refinery crude oil input of 726,000 barrels per day in second quarter 2017 decreased 38,000 barrels per day from the year-ago period mainly due to crude unit maintenance at the Star Petroleum Refining Company in Thailand and a major planned turnaround at the company's refinery in Cape Town, South Africa