>>> IAG’s acquisition of Niki could be derailed by Fairplane petition to move in


IAG’s acquisition of Niki could be derailed by Fairplane petition to move insolvency proceedings to Austria - The Times


The sale of Air Berlin’s [ETR:AB1] Austrian subsidiary Niki to International Consolidated Airlines Group [LON:IAG] could be derailed on Thursday, 4 January by a petition to move Air Berlin’s insolvency proceedings from Berlin to Austria, The Times reported. The report quoted the law firm Fairplane, which said it had taken legal action to transfer Air Berlin’s insolvency proceedings to Austria.

IAG’s Spanish low-cost subsidiary Vueling confirmed on 31 December that it had agreed to acquire Niki’s assets for EUR 20m (USD 24.0m) plus the provision of liquidity of up to EUR 16.5m.

Fairplane, which is looking to recover in excess of EUR 1m that the law firm says is owed by Niki to its passengers, has argued that Austria-registered Niki was profitable but was cut off from financing when Air Berlin’s insolvency proceedings commenced in Germany last month.

The Berlin district court is to decide whether to overturn its move to hold the insolvency proceedings in Germany the item said, adding that the decision may be left to a higher court.

A court in the Austrian city of Korneuburg has been asked to launch Niki’s insolvency proceedings, the newspaper said.

The report went on to quote Air Berlin’s liquidator, Lucas Flother, who said IAG’s acquisition of Niki would be “endangered” if Fairplane succeeds in its bid to transfer the insolvency proceedings to an Austrian court.

(HSBC) French & BEnelux Banks : Favour asset gathering over lending

* Upgrade Credit Agricole and Natixis to Buy from Hold, remain Buy on KBC: best exposure to asset gathering trends
* Downgrade BNP Paribas and SocGen to Hold from Buy on weak French retail banking; we remain Hold on ING
* We initiate coverage of ABN AMRO with a Hold rating

- Asset gathering streams better positioned than loan-driven net interest income
Among the French and Benelux banks we cover, our preference for those with asset gathering exposure partly reflects our caution on net interest margins. We see retail investment flows as a cleaner way to play growth than loan demand. Margin support from rising rates is taking longer to flow through. Loan pricing and front-book pressure are unhelpful, despite fading mortgage re-financings.

- Credit Agricole, Natixis and KBC have the best exposure to these trends
More important than the top-down view is our bottom-up call that our three preferred names can drive positive jaws, earnings growth and multiple expansion via this business. We think banks owning insurance business have competitive and cost advantages over stand-alone players in France and Belgium. CASA and Natixis in particular benefit from their access to large affiliated branch networks to sell asset gathering products, without the associated fixed cost. We expect selective market share gains in 2018-2020 at CASA, Natixis and KBC in insurance and mix shifts into unit-linked to further support RoTEs. In Belgium, we see KBC’s high fee margins as sustainable, justified by product mix and higher gross investment returns. Continuing their bolt-on deal strategy in asset management for Natixis and CASA/Amundi, on top of strong organic inflows, adds higher quality earnings and should boost group valuation multiples.

- Downgrade BNP Paribas and SocGen to Hold from Buy
Our downgrades of BNP and SocGen reflect their exposure to French retail banking, where we see net interest income remaining under pressure in 2018, while the offset from asset gathering is much weaker than at Credit Agricole and Natixis. Our work on ‘jaws’ shows BNP and SocGen screen poorly when revenue growth is challenging.

WSJ : Bitcoin Isn’t a Currency, It’s a Commodity—Price It That Way



From: LAURENT CHEKROUN (MAKOR SECURITIES LO) At: 01/04/18 08:00:19
Subject: WSJ : Bitcoin Isn’t a Currency, It’s a Commodity—Price It That Way
Bitcoin Isn’t a Currency, It’s a Commodity—Price It That Way - Link : http://on.wsj.com/2lSojSf
If bitcoin has more in common with gold than dollars, it could have a long way to fall
Is a bitcoin worth the $15,000 it commands today, or is it really worth about $3,000? The huge runup in value since September suggests the lower figure.

Cryptocurrency fans typically fall into two groups. One sees the currencies as ways to buy and sell things; the other views them as investments. For now, the investment crowd is winning out: Bitcoin remains a cumbersome way to purchase most goods, but its value has skyrocketed, nearly quadrupling since mid-September.

If bitcoin is an investment, it most closely resembles gold. Both are stores of value that provide some built-in protection against inflation because there is a finite supply and because extracting new deposits gets more expensive over time, barring big technology changes.

If bitcoin really is digital gold, however, investors should analyze it like a commodity—looking at supply constraints and the factors driving demand. That exercise produces worrying results.

The most important factor in gold prices over the long run is production costs, which act something like a natural price floor when demand dips. Of course, gold prices can also temporarily move much higher when demand is strong but tend to fall back toward the marginal cost of production once worries about inflation or the dollar subside and gold begins to lose its appeal as a hedge.

The last great bull market in gold is a classic example: Prices peaked around $1,900 a troy ounce in 2011— more than three times the production cost, at the time for Barrick Gold Corp., the largest listed gold producer. By the end of 2016, gold prices had plummeted to $1,151 a troy ounce, above Barrick’s production cost of $844, according to FactSet.

Applying the same analysis to bitcoin suggests its price could face a steep fall if demand dries up. The cost of minting a bitcoin is as low as $3,224 in Louisiana, according to an analysis by the Crescent Electric Supply Co., one of the largest electrical suppliers in the U.S. The Pelican State had the lowest average residential power costs in the U.S. as of October, according to the Energy Information Administration. Electricity is the biggest cost for bitcoin miners once they fork out for their equipment.

On the demand side, some investors appear to be using bitcoin as a hedge against currency weakness in a manner similar to gold. Deutsche Bank reckons that Japanese retail investors were the main force behind the monstrous bitcoin rally last fall—also a period of weakness for the yen, which shed about 6% of its value between early September and mid-November. Around 40% of bitcoin trading is yen-denominated according to Japanese bank Nomura.

If the yen were to rise sharply next year, or even if investors began concluding bitcoin was overpriced as a hedge relative to gold, bitcoin might have a long way to fall.

Write to Nathaniel Taplin at nathaniel.taplin@wsj.com

Corrections & Amplifications
Barrick Gold’s production cost was $844 a troy ounce in 2016, according to FactSet. An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated that amount was the production cost in 2011 and incorrectly stated that the cost in 2016 was $1,118 a troy ounce. (Jan. 4)

FT : Debenhams’ Christmas sales suffer despite markdowns

Poor post-Christmas sales along with a “disappointing” start to the holiday quarter marred Debenhams festive performance, in contrast to the upbeat report from fellow high street stalwart Next on Wednesday.

The difficult UK market weighed on the retailer, sending group like for like sales down 1.3 per cent for the 17 weeks to December 30 from a year earlier.

Debenhams said promotions had become increasingly important in a competitive marketplace, prompting it to take “tactical promotional action” to shore up the six-week Christmas period after a worse than expected start to the period. But customers stayed away from the “highly seasonal Gift” category after the festivities were complete, with the first week of post-Christmas sales “below expectations” despite bigger markdowns.

That will have an impact on margins, Debenhams said, which are expected to be 150 basis points (1.5 percentage points) lower in the first half than the same time a year ago — considerably worse than the 25bps full-year decline it predicted in October. But cost increases should come in at the bottom end of expectations, it said.

Debenhams said it had seen “encouraging indications” its turnround strategy was paying off — although profits are not expected to pick up significantly after a 42 per cent decline last year. Pre-tax profit is forecast to be between £55 and £65m for the 2018 financial year, the retailer said on Thursday– roughly in line with last year’s £59m.

Sergio Bucher, Chief Executive of Debenhams, said:

The market has been challenging and particularly promotional in some of our key seasonal categories and we have responded in order to remain competitive for our customers, which has impacted our profit performance. Nevertheless, we are seeing positive early signs from the changes we have made as part of our Debenhams Redesigned strategy. The market dynamics we have seen have reinforced our view that we need to move even faster to implement the cultural and organisational changes needed to ensure Debenhams is in the best possible shape for today’s fast-changing retail environment.

>>> NH Hotel suitor Barcelo rules out increasing offer; has no plan B


NH Hotel suitor Barcelo rules out increasing offer; has no plan B - report (translated)
04 JAN 2018

NH Hotel Group [BME:NHH] suitor Barcelo has no plans to raise its offer, Expansion said citing co-chairman Simon Pedro Barcelo. In an interview with the Spanish-language paper, Barcelo said that the company’s offer was the best option for both companies’ future and should be attractive to NH shareholders.

NH management board is due to announce on 10 January its opinion on the offer.

As reported, Barceló is proposing a merger with NH to create a giant with more than 600 hotels and 110,000 rooms. According to Barceló's estimates, its offer for NH was equivalent to EUR 7.08 per share, which would mean valuing the company at EUR 2.480bn. Barcelo proposes to control 60% of the merged company.

Barcelo points out that that the union of NH and Barceló would have EBITDA above EUR 700m and practically no debt. Barceló is optimistic about a favorable response from NH, although the executive acknowledged that since the offer was launched there have been no talks.

Barcelo has no plans for a market listing or other corporate transactions if its offer for NH fails, the executive added.

>>> What to look at today - 4th of January 2018

Dow +0.40% S&P +0.64% Nasdaq +0.84% Russell +0.17%
US Market closed on new records levels. Some FOMC members even saw the possibility for more aggressive monetary policy depending on economic growth resulting from the GOP's tax overhaul--which President Trump signed into law two weeks ago. Many Fed officials believe that the tax cuts will boost consumer and capital spending, but there's uncertainty surrounding the magnitude of the growth. Energy shares led the rally on Wall Street as West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 2.1% to $61.63 per barrel--which marks their best close since December 2014. Anti-government protests in oil-rich Iran helped fuel the commodity's advance, even though the demonstrations aren't expected to affect production. The S&P 500's energy sector added 1.5%. INTC shares lost 3.4% in reaction to reports that a design flaw in Intel's processor chips has forced a significant redesign of kernels for the Windows and Linux operating systems. Intel issued a statement refuting the claims in the late afternoon, which helped INTC shares pare some of their losses. Only three of eleven sectors finished the midweek session in the red--consumer staples (-0.1%), utilities (-0.8%), and telecom services (-2.2%)--but their impact was modest as they comprise just a little more than 10.0% of the broader market combined. US After Hours ZUMZ +15.4%, RAD -6.6%, TSLA -2% following earnings/guidance/sales updates... INTC -1.1% continued weakness despite hosting call to discuss reports of new security research findings. Asian stocks headed toward fresh historic highs, with Japan’s markets coming back from New Year holidays to see solid gains in the wake of U.S. records. Oil rose, while gold slipped. Chinese stocks rose after a gauge of services industries indicated a pick-up in growth last month. Further non-manufacturing purchasing-manager indexes are due from other key economies Thursday. The global data highlight for the week is set to be Friday’s monthly U.S. jobs report, which is forecast to show that unemployment held at 4.1 percent last month.

Nikkei +3.26% Hang Seng +0.63% CSI +0.30% Shanghai +0.32% Shenzen +0.25%

Eur$ 1.2027 CNH 6.50 CNY 6.5041 JPY 112.57 GBP 1.3522 CHF 0.9768 RUB 57.2149 WTI$ 62.09 +0.75%

S&P +0.07% EuroStoxx +0.31% FTSE +0.18% Dax +0.38% SMI +0.30%

Macro :
- U.K. Said to Think Barnier Bluffing on No Brexit Deal for Banks
- Pharo’s $4 Billion Gaia Hedge Fund Said to Surge 27% Last Year
- Most Fed Officials Backed Continued Gradual Rate Increases
- London Link May Allow U.K. Stock Trading in China Hours: News
- U.S. Individual Investor Bulls Reach 7-Year High: AAII

Keep an eye on :
- AIR FP : Boeing Is Said to Seek Embraer Control, With Defense Protections
- AZA IM : Lufthansa Seeks Italy Govt Guarantees for Alitalia: Messaggero
- BAYN GY : Bayer Is Said to Have Started Marketing Some U.S. Assets: NYP
- EN FP : To construct Melbourne’S Metro tunnel as a member of Cross YARRA partnership consortium
- CRG IM : Malacalza family now owns 20.6% stake Below the 28% level the Malacalza family could have ended up if it exercised all the rights, a threshold for which even the ECB gave its green light
- DAI GY : Mercedes-Benz U.S. Luxury Auto Sales Rose 10% in Dec.
- GTO NA : Launches the first biometric EMV card for contactless payments
- ISP IM : Intesa Announces Cash Purchase of Ex-Veneto Banks’ Senior Notes
- ML FP : Michelin, Sumitomo to Form North American Replacement-Tire JV
- MUV2 GY : Munich Re Upgraded to Outperform at MainFirst; PT 205 Euros
- NOVN VX : Novartis Gets FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation for Promacta
- OCDO LN : Ocado Shares Leap Amid Short Squeeze, Positive Online Sentiment
- PHARM NA : Pharming Bondholders Convert EU7.7 Million of Remaining Bonds
- PIX FP : Receives FDA approval to begin human clinical study of its PRIMA sub-retinal implant in the US
- SPOTIFY IPO : TPG, Dragoneer Are Said to Have Sold Some Spotify Stock: Recode
- TSCO LN : U.K. Grocers Likely Saw Mixed Dec., Tesco Best Gains: Jefferies
- TSLA US : Tesla Delays Model 3 Production Goal as Deliveries Disappoint
- TRVX NO : Targovax Says ONCOS-102 Generates Immune Activation in Study
- VIFN SW : Conditional marketing authorization application for treatment of patients with ANCA-associated vasculitis validated for start of procedure by EMA
- WES NA : Mr Jobson Raises Stake in Wessanen to 10.33%: AFM Filing
- WTB LN : BArclays talking of probability of break up scenario

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 4th of January 2018

>>> Up
* Credit Agricole Upgraded to Buy at HSBC; PT 18 Euros
* Mail.ru Group GDRs Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse; PT $45
* Natixis Upgraded to Buy at HSBC; PT 8 Euros
* Next Upgraded to Hold at HSBC; PT 46 Pounds
* Solvay Upgraded to Buy at SocGen; PT 135 Euros

>>> Down
* BNP Paribas Downgraded to Hold at HSBC; PT 67 Euros
* Croda Downgraded to Hold at Jefferies; PT 47 Pounds
* Enav Downgraded to Equal-weight at Barclays; PT 4.70 Euros
* Falck Renewables Cut to Reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux
* Gerry Weber Cut to Reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 8.90 Euros
* Hochschild Mining Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 2.60 Pounds
* Roku Downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $30
* SocGen Downgraded to Hold at HSBC; PT 46 Euros

>>> Initiation
* ABN Amro GDRs Rated New Hold at HSBC; PT 28 Euros
* Medios Rated New Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 24 Euros

>>> Call

>>> US After Hours Summary: ZUMZ +15.4%, RAD -6.6%, TSLA -2% follo

After Hours Summary: ZUMZ +15.4%, RAD -6.6%, TSLA -2% following earnings/guidance/sales updates... INTC -1.1% continued weakness despite hosting call to discuss reports of new security research findings

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance/SSS: ZUMZ +15.4% (reports December comps of +7.9 vs -3.4% year ago and +7.8% last month and increases guidance), RECN +3.6%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: SKLN +25.1% (Skyline Medical reports sale of 5 STREAMWAY Systems in Q4; 6 units have been booked for sale in January 2018), TOPS +18.4% (extended the time charter agreements with Stena Bulk AB; total gross revenue backlog for the fixed charter period of all operating fleet stands at about $131 million), APHB +17.9% (Ampliphi Biosciences announces topline results for the first seven patients treated under its ongoing single-patient expanded access program; 'six patients, 86%, achieving treatment success' ), AMPE +6.7% (still checking), MNTA +6% (Momenta Pharma and Mylan announced the development strategy for M710, a proposed biosimilar to EYLEA injection; cos plan to initiate a pivotal clinical trial in patients in 1H18), DCIX +5% (Trend Discovery discloses increased passive stake), SAND +4.2% (reported record gold equivalent production in 2017 and the sale of US$18 million of securities of Equinox Gold ), AMD +2.4% (seeing modest bounce in after hours trade after company claims 'near-zero risk' to its chips), OSTK +2% (CEO Byrne and Hernando de Soto enter MOU to form blockchain company focused on property rights), MNK +1.4% (added to Select List at Stifel), SSW +1.3% (announces letter of intent for potential $250 mln Unsecured 5.50% Debenture and Warrant Investment from Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited), BB +1.2% (continued strength following exec commentary in Bloomberg interview), SRPT +1% (initiated with Buy/$75 tgt at Janney ), QURE +0.7% (initiated with Buy/$25 tgt at Janney)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance/SSS: RAD -6.6%, TSLA -2% (reports Q4 deliveries), LNDC -1.6% (light volume)

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: OVAS -4.8% (reports initial safety data from Phase 1 Study of OvaPrime, is reducing headcount by ~50% and appoints James Lillie as Chief Scientific Officer), REXX -3.5% / RENN -1.4% (modestly pulling back), ARE -3.2% (is commencing public offering of 6,000,000 shares of common stock in connection with the forward sale agreements), INSM -3% (announces additional data from ALIS), ZYNE -1.2% (light volume; provides 2018 clinical/corporate update focusing strategy on rare and near-rare neurological and psychiatric disorders; Liza Squires, M.D. joins as Chief Medical Officer), INTC -1.1% (following call to discuss reports of new security research findings)