FT : Big Pharma makes strongest start to M&A for a decade

Big Pharma makes strongest start to M&A for a decade
US tax overhaul spurs near-$30bn spree but some warn of bubble amid high valuations

Healthcare companies have announced almost $30bn of acquisitions since the beginning of the year in the sector’s strongest start for dealmaking in more than a decade, as Big Pharma scrambles to replace ageing blockbusters by paying top dollar for new medicines.

Executives, lawyers and bankers said the January deals frenzy could be a sign of things to come in 2018, as large US drugmakers snap up innovative rivals by spending billions of dollars of cash freed up by Donald Trump’s tax overhaul.

Sanofi, the French pharma company, and Celgene, the US biotech group, unveiled two acquisitions on Monday worth more than $20bn, taking the total value of global healthcare deals announced so far this year to $27bn, according to figures from Thomson Reuters.

That represented the best start to a year for healthcare dealmaking since at least 2007, Thomson Reuters said.

Both drugmakers offered hefty premiums to seal the deals, with Sanofi paying $11.6bn for US haemophilia specialist Bioverativ — 63 per cent more than its undisturbed share price.

Celgene agreed to pay $9bn for Juno, a biotech group developing experimental cell therapies for cancer. The price was almost twice what the Seattle-based company was worth before rumours of a deal prompted a spike in the value of its stock last week.

So far this year, buyers of healthcare companies have agreed to pay an average premium of 81 per cent, according to data provider Dealogic — well above the 42 per cent typically paid in 2017.

Their willingness to agree to such lofty prices underscores a perennial problem for Big Pharma: what to do when successful medicines lose patent protection and revenues evaporate.

Sanofi is trying to offset declining sales of its top-selling insulin, Lantus, which has lost market share following the introduction of cheaper “biosimilar” versions. Celgene is preparing for the loss of patent protection on its top cancer medicine, Revlimid, which will face generic competition from 2022 at the latest.

“As Big Pharma is confronted with drugs going off patent and weak research and development pipelines, they have no choice but to do significant acquisitions despite pushing valuation metrics,” said Frank Aquila, a senior corporate lawyer at Sullivan & Cromwell.

Large drugmakers have often turned to buying smaller biotech groups to replenish flagging pipelines, but a steady increase in the value of such companies has prompted some in the industry to warn of a bubble.

Some executives say the sector could continue to overheat as an indirect consequence of President Trump’s tax reforms, which have enabled large pharmaceutical groups to access billions of dollars of cash that was trapped overseas.

“Given the access to cash that this pool of companies now has, will we see the value of potential targets run up? I do think that’s a risk,” said Rob Davis, chief financial officer of Merck, in a recent interview with the Financial Times.

Mr Aquila added: “The new US tax law puts more cash in buyers’ hands and lower rates make more deals accretive. It’s a powerful combination.”

Baker McKenzie, an international corporate law firm, predicts the tax overhaul will help push the value of global healthcare deals to $418bn this year, up 50 per cent compared with last year.

>>> YNAP/Richemont: offer launch expected in mid/end February - source

YNAP/Richemont: offer launch expected in mid/end February

Richemont [VTX:CFR] is expected to launch its EUR 38 per share tender offer on Italian online retailer Yoox Net-a-Porter [BIT:YNAP] between the middle and the end of February, according to a source close to the situation.
The offer is then poised to last between three and five weeks, as required by Italian law, the source said.
The French company should file its offer document with Consob, Italy’s markets watchdog, shortly, the source added. Under Italian law, Richemont would have 20 calendar days from the deal announcement to make the filing.
Federico Marchetti, YNAP CEO, is expected to retain his post following the completion of the transaction, according to the source.
A YNAP spokesperson declined to comment. Richemont did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

WSJ : Daniel Loeb’s Third Point Calls for More Change at Nestlé

Daniel Loeb’s Third Point Calls for More Change at Nestlé
Loeb presses Nestle to simplify portfolio, monetize stake in L’Oreal and increase buybacks

Activist investor Dan Loeb’s Third Point LLC is keeping pressure on Nestlé SA, saying the consumer company needs to do more to realign its portfolio, including getting out of its stake in cosmetics giant L’Oréal SA.

The activist, writing to his own investors, says Nestlé has taken some important steps recently, pointing to new board members the company announced and plans to increase margins, but believes more is needed.

A representative for Nestlé wasn’t immediately able to comment.

Among his list of changes, Mr. Loeb suggests getting rid of the L’Oréal stake that the company has maintained as a strategic asset. He also calls for greater clarity on the mission of the company, which new Chief Executive Mark Schneider has sought to deliver in recent months.

And Mr. Loeb wants Nestlé to increase capital return to investors, calling for the company to accelerate or increase the $20 billion buyback the company has already announced, the letter said.

The letter means that even though Nestlé was believed to have taken many steps Mr. Loeb had wanted, the sides have yet to reach total accord and a fight could still loom in the future.

Third Point owns about a 1.25% stake in Nestlé.

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance
:

  • PETS +8.8%, NUAN +8.8%, HAL +2.1%, TBK +1.4%

M&A news:

  • BIVV +62.7% (to be acquired by Sanofi (SNY) for $105 per share)
  • JUNO +27.2% (Juno Therapeutics to be acquired by Celgene (CELG) for $87/share in cash, or approximately $9 bln)
  • BG +1.3% (WSJ reports that Archer-Daniels (ADM) has made a takeover approach to Bunge)
  • RCII +1.3% (Rent-A-Center and Vintage Capital entered confidentiality and non-disclosure agreement with standstill provision (Vintage previously made proposal to acquire the co for $13.00/share in cash))

Select Biotech related names showing strength after BIVV and JUNO M&A news:

  • SGMO +5.6%, CLLS +3.6%, BLUE +3.4%, ABLX +2.4%, CALI +2.2%, ATRA +1.7%, SHPG +1.5%, . 

Other news:

  • TTNP +25% (Titan Pharma Braeburn Pharma are in discussions regarding their partnership for the development and commercialization of Probuphine, the first 6-month maintenance treatment of opioid dependence)
  • CNIT +18.3% (initiates 'in-depth research on the application of blockchain, aiming to innovate the Taoping new-media sharing ecosystem, and to deliver higher returns to Taoping ecosystem partners and users')
  • ARRY +8.8% (reports updated Phase 1b results for the combination of Cobimetinib and Atezolizumab)
  • QURE +2.8% (received an Orphan Medicinal Product Designation (OMPD) from the European Medicines Agency for AMT-130 in Huntington's disease)
  • OMER +2.2% (EMA's COMP issued a positive opinion on Omeros' application for orphan drug designation of OMS721 in the treatment of primary Immunoglobulin A nephropathy)
  • NFLX +0.9% (ahead of earnings AMC)

Analyst comments:

  • RUBI +11.9% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Craig Hallum)
  • HOG +2.1% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo)
  • JNPR +2% (upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer)
  • KEX +1.9% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo)
  • X +1.2% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citigroup)
  • SLB +0.8% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Atlantic Equities)

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance
:

  • UBS -1.5%

M&A news:

  • CELG -1.1% (to acquire JUNO for $87/share)

Other news:

  • VICL -27.3% (Vical Astellas Pharma report Top-Line results for Phase 3 trial of Cytomegalovirus Vaccine; did not meet primary end-point)
  • FORD -6.8% (modestly pulling back after Friday's 138% move)
  • TEVA -2% (announces that a Phase III registration study evaluating subcutaneously administered reslizumab (110 mg) in a pre-filled syringe did not meet its primary endpoint)

Analyst comments:

  • GE -0.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill)
  • AAPL -0.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Atlantic Equities)
  • AXP -0.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim)
  • FCX -1% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperformer at CIBC)
  • CBS -1.5% (downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight)
  • PANW -1.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman)
  • ESPR -1.9% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup)
  • LLY -2.1% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse)

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
Gapping up:
  • BIVV +62.8%, JUNO +27.3%, NBEV +5.9%, CLLS +4%, SGMO +3.9%, FOSL +2.7%, ATRA +2.4%, BLUE +2.3%, CALI +2.2%, ABLX +2.1%, HAL +1.9%, SHPG +1.7%, TBK +1.4%, NFLX +0.9%, KTOV +0.9%
Gapping down:
  • VICL -31.6%, FORD -5.8%, NVFY -4.8%, ERIC -1.6%, EA -1.5%, UBS -1.4%, MU -1.2%, OPK -1.1%, MARA -1.1%, CIFS -0.8%, SIRI -0.7%, AAPL -0.7%, JD -0.7%, AMD -0.6%

>>> Schlumberger broker research

Schlumberger broker research

B. Riley FBR: They are increasing their price target from $80 to $90, reflecting a 2018 EV/EBITDA multiple of 15.4x, and reiterating their Buy rating. They expect SLB's non-NAM top line to expand faster, at 11%, on another year of growth in core engines Russia and the Middle East, upswings in Asia and North Sea, and lesser gains in Latin America and Africa.

Cowen: The company is significantly slowing SPM investments and the program will be FCF positive in 2018. Investments already in place should double SPM revenue by year end 2019 to ~$3B, or less than 10% of total. They suspect earlier plans to grow SPM to the size of a product group (~20% of revs) are less in focus. They believe this was welcome news to many investors who did not like the SPM strategy. They maintain their Outperform rating and $85 price target, which equates to 15x their 2020 EBITDA estimate discounted back one year at SLB's cost of equity