>>> Comcast Q4 earnings call notes

Comcast Q4 earnings call notes
  • There was more aggressive video offerings in 2017, and they more than ‘held their own in this environment'.
  • X1 allows them to aggregate content for customers, in the past year they integrated YouTube (GOOG), Pandora (P), and iHeart radio, and now have nearly 20 mln voice remotes deployed.
  • 2017 was the most profitable year ever for their film business.
  • Television business
    • Increased affiliate fees and re-transmission revenues are evidence of the portfolio's value.
    • With pace of change in industry accelerating, along the way their may be more opportunities to create value for shareholders, they study situations as they come along, they have been and will remain disciplined.
    • Strategy centered around must-see content that can derive multiple streams of revenue (advertising, content licensing, distribution, emerging TV platforms)
  • Theme parks had 9% growth in FY17, in part driven by Harry Potter theme park, pleased with investment in Japan.
    • Have made progress to open Beijing theme park in next few years.
  • Excited for upcoming Super Bowl and Winter Olympics
    • Will deliver more than 2,400 hours of Winter Olympic coverage, more than the last 2 winter Olympics combined.
    • Averaging $5 mln/Super Bowl ad spots, almost sold out, believe ad spots are going for 20% more than the prior year.
  • 2018 outlook
    • In film, while they won't beat their 2017 performance, they expect a strong year (Jurassic World 2 and the third installment of 50 Shades).
    • Video will continue to evolve, and they are committed to innovating through X1.
    • Will continue to differentiate data product, augment Wi-Fi product and control, excited for pod rollout.
  • On potential M&A opportunities
    • They have seen the adjustment in the intensity of OTT, they will compete aggressively, but they have transitioned more towards broadband. They will have good balance on profitable growth and will leverage broadband. Doesn't see environment too different from last year.
    • They look at inorganic opportunities that come along, there is nothing they feel they must acquire, they have created values for shareholders in every instance. Excited about Japan theme park, NBC Universal.
    • Focus will be on bundling, leveraging X1, and broadband.
    • Very happy with the progress they have made at DreamWorks (Comcast acquired DreamWorks for 3.8 bln in April of 2016)
  • Key is new IP, strong consumer products, and appearance in their theme parks.
  • Television advertising is roughly holding it's own, their dream is to take their television advertising, make it more target-able more addressable, give it the characteristics that digital has.

>>> Royal Caribbean reports Q4 (Dec) results, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS below

Royal Caribbean reports Q4 (Dec) results, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS below consensus; guides FY18 EPS in-line
  • Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $7.53 per share, may not be comparable to the Capital IQ Consensus of $1.20; revenues rose 5.0% year/year to $2 bln vs the $1.97 bln Capital IQ Consensus
    • Net Yields were up 3.9% on a Constant-Currency basis, beating the mid-point of the guidance by 165 basis points
    • Strong close-in demand for our core products combined with better than expected onboard spend drove the outperformance
    • Gross Cruise Costs per APCD increased 5.6% on a Constant-Currency basis. Net Cruise Costs ("NCC") excluding Fuel per APCD were up 8.7% on a Constant-Currency basis.
  • Co issues downside guidance for Q1, sees EPS of ~$0.95, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $1.02 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
  • Co issues in-line guidance for FY18, sees EPS of $8.55-8.75, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $8.65 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
  • For FY18, Net Yields are expected to increase 1.5% to 3.5% on a Constant-Currency basis (up 2.75% to 4.75% As-Reported); NCC excluding Fuel per APCD are expected to be up 1.5% to 2.0% on a Constant-Currency basis (up 2.0% to 2.5% As-Reported)
  • For Q1, Net Yields are expected to increase 3.0% to 3.5% on a Constant-Currency basis and ~5.5% As-Reported; NCC excluding Fuel per APCD for the quarter are expected to be up approximately 10.0% on a Constant-Currency basis (up ~11.0% As-Reported)

WSJ : Hedge Funds Grow Wary of Cryptocurrency Mania

WSJ : Hedge Funds Grow Wary of Cryptocurrency Mania
Their caution is the latest sign of doubt among investors that the red-hot rise of bitcoin and its ilk is sustainable

Hedge funds that rode the wave as cryptocurrencies surged last year have turned cautious, the latest sign of doubt among investors that the red-hot rise of bitcoin and its ilk can be sustained.

Bitcoin’s more than thirteen-fold rise in 2017 helped fuel a stellar year for the still-small number of hedge funds dedicated to cryptocurrency investing. An index of around 17 cryptocurrency hedge funds from data provider Hedge Fund Research Inc. rose almost 3,000% in 2017—light years ahead of the 8.7% average return across the global hedge fund industry.

Several crypto-focused funds now say it’s time for a break.

“You need to sit down and put a towel on your head and have a think about things,” said Lee Robinson, founder of Monaco-based hedge fund firm Altana Wealth, whose $45 million cryptocurrency fund returned around 1,500% last year.

Mr. Robinson said he became concerned when the time taken for the price of cryptocurrencies to double was halving late last year—a sign the market was overheated.

He said the fund is now positioned to profit from price falls on stocks associated with bitcoin and blockchain technology, and cut back its bet on rising cryptocurrency prices.

The change of heart among investors like Mr. Robinson has coincided with other factors now buffeting bitcoin’s fortunes. Financial regulators have grown concerned about the bubbly prices of cryptocurrencies and their association with illegal activity, particularly in Asia, where much of the world’s trading in bitcoin and its peers takes place.

The price of bitcoin fell to $10,525.27 on Tuesday according to news and research site Coindesk, down from a peak of $19,283 on Dec. 16. It started 2017 at just $892.

Few cryptocurrency funds have established much of a track record and many private banks have been reluctant to offer them to their clients, said Mohammad Hassan, head of hedge fund research at EurekaHedge in Singapore. Most cryptocurrency funds employ a simple strategy of buying cryptocurrencies, and selling them after they appreciate, he said.

“What they’re doing is pure market timing,” he added. “For me, the question is, why would anybody pay 20% fees for this?”

But professional fund managers are increasingly interested, as the launch of bitcoin futures markets in the U.S. late last year gave investors concerned about those markets’ highly-speculative nature some confidence they’re becoming more mainstream. They’ve also made it easier to bet on falling—not just rising—prices.

Now some managers are leaving lucrative positions on Wall Street and other financial centers to set up new funds.

Lewis Fellas, a former portfolio manager at Harvard Management Company, which manages the university’s endowment, left Boston in 2016 to set up cryptocurrency-focused Bletchley Park Asset Management, based in Hong Kong.

The fund made a 106% return last year, basing its investing decisions on technical analysis of crypto markets and by comparing digital currencies to social networking companies like Facebook and Twitter, which it believes share similar characteristics.

But Mr. Fellas said he’s turned cautious on cryptocurrencies this year, and is currently 50% invested, down from 90% in December.

“We felt the market was looking pretty stretched across most coins,” he added.

Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that hedge funds overall entered 2018 betting bitcoin prices would fall outweighed those betting it would rise by a factor of four. As of Jan. 16, such short positions still outnumber those taking the opposite bet, the data shows.

Still, some funds remain bullish. California-based Pantera Capital wrote in a note to clients last month that Bitcoin could rise to $50,000 by 2019, and to a “fair value” of $500,000 in the next 10 years.

It said the currency had “probably” got ahead of itself “but not in an unprecedented way.”

As bitcoin’s roller-coaster market ride continues, some hedge funds are developing strategies they believe could prove more sustainable than simply betting on rising prices. The growing sophistication of crypto-focused hedge funds is partly a response to skepticism about whether they add much value for their clients.

BitSpread, a Cayman Islands-based cryptocurrency hedge fund, uses an internally-developed algorithm to sniff out variations in the prices at which various digital coins like bitcoin trade on different exchanges. It earned an annualized return of 105.7% in 2017 and has more than $100 million in assets under management, according to a fund factsheet.

The strategy means Bitspread’s funds are “always 100% invested,” according to its chief executive officer and founder Cedric Jeanson, whose career in banking spanned trading desks at J.P. Morgan Chase , BNP Paribas , and Nomura.

>>> HNA's Swissport intends to list this year

HNA's Swissport intends to list this year

Cargo handling company Swissport, part of the Chinese conglomerate HNA [HNAIRC.UL], announced on Wednesday that it intends to seek an initial public offering on the Swiss stock exchange in 2018.
Benedetto, Gartland and Rothschild are Financial Advisors to Swissport for the proposed IPO, and the company is in the process of selecting one or more global coordinators.
HNA intends to remain as a long-term strategic shareholder.
Reuters, citing sources, said cash-strapped HNA is hoping the Swiss company could fetch a minimum valuation of CHF 2.7bn (USD 2.84bn), the price paid for the asset in 2015. The process to list Swissport could start in the second quarter, it added.
Press release:
Swissport Group ("Swissport"), the global leader in ground handling and cargo services, today announced its intention to seek an Initial Public Offering ("IPO") and listing of its shares on the SIX Swiss Exchange. The contemplated IPO is currently anticipated to take place in 2018 and Swissport expects to issue an intention to float announcement later this year. HNA Group Co., Ltd (together with its direct and indirect subsidiaries and affiliates, "HNA Group"), currently Swissport's sole shareholder, is expected to retain a long-term strategic shareholding following any such IPO. Swissport will continue to function as an independent company.
Swissport to build on its global leadership position and long-term strategy
Swissport is the world’s leading independent provider of ground and cargo handling services to the aviation industry, based on revenue and number of airports served. The company provides a full range of best-in-class services and tailored solutions in ground and cargo handling, which represents a critical component of its customers’ operations and business.
Eric Born, Group President and CEO commented that "the objective of the contemplated IPO is to accelerate Swissport’s long-term growth strategy, provide additional financial flexibility and liquidity, and position the company to strengthen its leadership position and service offerings in the industry".
Experienced management team with a successful track record
Swissport is led by an internationally diverse and highly experienced senior management team with extensive industry expertise and a proven track record in the air services and logistics operation industries. Under the company’s current leadership, Swissport has succeeded in growing total revenues, managing costs, introducing new products, and acquiring and successfully integrating new businesses. Swissport believes that its senior management team’s collective industry knowledge, successful record in responding to challenging economic conditions and achieving profitable revenue growth, and global outlook will enable the company to continue to execute its strategy and achieve long-term profitable growth.
Swissport is a wholly-owned independent subsidiary of HNA Group, a Fortune 500 company focused on tourism, logistics and financial services, with a strong strategic focus on and deep expertise in aviation and airport management. Following HNA Group’s acquisition of Swissport in February 2016, the company’s independent management team has been able to leverage and benefit from HNA Group’s resources, support, expertise, and global connections in aviation and tourism in order to accelerate its growth strategy and competitive position in the market.
Offer summary
Benedetto, Gartland and Rothschild are Financial Advisors to Swissport for the proposed IPO, and Swissport is in the process of selecting one or more global coordinators. HNA Group, currently Swissport's sole shareholder, intends to remain as a long-term strategic shareholder, and Swissport will continue to function as an independent company. It is envisaged that the proposed IPO will be made as a primary and/or secondary offering to retail and institutional investors in Switzerland and to certain qualified institutional investors in various other jurisdictions.
This announcement contains inside information as defined in the Market Abuse Regulation (EU) 596/2014 ("Market Abuse Regulation") and is disclosed in accordance with Swissport's obligations under the Market Abuse Regulation.
The announcement can be read here.
The Reuters report can be read here.

>>> General Dynamics beats by $0.12, misses on revs

General Dynamics beats by $0.12, misses on revs
  • Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $2.50 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.12 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $2.38; revenues rose 8.1% year/year to $8.28 bln vs the $8.4 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
  • Company-wide operating margin was 12.5 percent for the fourth quarter, 250 basis points higher than the fourth-quarter 2016 margin.
  • General Dynamics' total backlog at the end of 2017 was $63.2 billion. There was strong demand in the quarter across the company's portfolio. The estimated potential contract value, representing management's estimate of value in unfunded indefinite delivery, indefinite quantity (IDIQ) contracts and unexercised options, was $24.8 billion. Total potential contract value, the sum of all backlog components, was $88 billion at the end of the year