>>> US After Hours Summary: OTEX +10.4%, QRVO +9%, EBAY +9%, T +3.4%,


After Hours Summary: OTEX +10.4%, QRVO +9%, EBAY +9%, T +3.4%, CDNS +3.4%, X +2.8%, PYPL -11.6%, OMI -6.2%, SYMC -2% following earnings/guidance

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: QNST +20.6% (light volume), OTEX +10.4%, QRVO +9%, EBAY +9%, VRTX +5.5% (also selects VX-659 and VX-445, two next-generation correctors for phase 3 development as part of two different triple combination regimens), T +3.4%, CDNS +3.4%, X +2.8%, MKSI +2.6%, ESIO +2.5%, KLIC +2.1%, ALGT +2% (light volume), FB +1.1%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: ZN +37.4% (launches new $5 per share Unit Program of limited duration during the month of February; nears total depth in Israel well), GEO +4.2% (light volume -- still checking), P +2.5% (announced organizational restructuring that shifts resources to focus on ad-tech and audience development efforts), BLCM +2% (modestly rebounding), RIOT +1.1% (confirms Annual Meeting adjourned for a second time to achieve a quorum on proposals -- under Nevada law new record date is required to be set)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: EGOV -16%, PYPL -11.6%, OMI -6.2%, MUR -4.7% (ticking lower), TSCO -4%, SYMC -2%, BOOT -1.5%, QCOM -1% (also expands its global patent cross-license agreement with Samsung covering mobile devices and infrastructure equipment), CTXS -0.8%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: ONCS -11.6% (commences common stock offering), NVTR -4.6% (commences common stock offering), GNBC -2.7% (to offer 3 mln shares of common stock in secondary offering by selling shareholders), DPW -2.7% (ongoing volatility), PLM -2.3% (ticking lower after saying it is not aware of any material undisclosed development that would cause today's upward movement in the company's share price -- was +17.9%)

>>> FB; Facebook Q4 conference call notes




Facebook Q4 conference call notes

  • News/video will always be important part of Facebook, but feels helping people connect is more important than people spending more time on Facebook
  • Reiterates time spent on platform may decline, but interaction will increase
  • Company's changes have resulted in about a 5% decline to average user time spent on Facebook
  • States that when you care about something, you're more likely to watch an ad in order to view it
  • Update meant to prioritize news trusted my more sources...Wall Street Journal and others
  • Stories has taken over Posts and Feed as popular way to share content by individuals
  • Oculus Go to get into customers' hands this year
  • Rolled out Ad Transparency in Canada, to roll out in US as well
  • Total expenses were $5.6 bln in Q4
  • 43% effective tax rate; $2.3 bln in charges in Q4 related to Tax Reform 
  • $6.7 bln in CapEx in FY17 (guidance was for $7 bln)
  • Ad impression growth at modest pace, expect ad growth to decelerate at modest pace
  • Reaffirmed total expense growth in FY18 of ~45 to 60% compared to FY17
  • Sees $14-15 bln in FY18 CapEx; tax rate in mid teens

>>> US Close Dow +0.28% S&P +0.05% Nasdaq +0.12% Russell -0.49%


Closing Market Summary: Wall Street Ends Losing Streak With Slim Gains

Stocks broke a two-session losing streak on Wednesday, but just barely, finishing just a tick above their unchanged marks.

The S&P 500 opened with a gain of 0.5%, but settled higher by just 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average had similar outings; the Nasdaq opened higher by 0.7%, but finished with a gain of just 0.1%, while the Dow retained 0.3% of its opening gain of 0.9%. All three indices spent some time in negative territory, but a late uptick brought them back into the green. Small caps were relatively weak throughout the session, with the Russell 2000 ending lower by 0.5%.

As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to keep the fed funds target range at 1.25%-1.50%, allowing Fed Chair Janet Yellen to step down in the most hospitable way. Jerome Powell, President Trump's chosen replacement for Ms. Yellen, will officially become the next Fed Chair on February 3.

In the Fed's official statement, policymakers said near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but added that officials are keeping an eye on inflation, which has been slow to pick up despite a tightening of the labor market. Fed officials expect that, with further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will remain strong.

The market dialed up its expectations for a rate hike in March following the FOMC release, with the CME FedWatch Tool now placing the chances at 83.5%, up from 74.7% on Tuesday. Investors are still calling for a total of three rate hikes in 2018.

Eight of eleven sectors finished Wednesday in the green. The lightly-weighted real estate (+2.1%) and utilities (+1.1%) sectors were the top-performing groups, but the technology (+0.7%) and industrials (+0.4%) sectors also had relatively positive outings. Boeing (BA 354.37, +16.66) set the pace in the industrial space, jumping 4.9% to a new all-time high, after reporting above-consensus earnings and revenues for the fourth quarter and issuing much better-than-expected guidance for fiscal year 2018.

Within the tech space, Advanced Micro (AMD 13.74, +0.87) climbed 6.8% after reporting upbeat earnings and revenues for the fourth quarter and raising its sales guidance for Q1, and Electronic Arts (EA 126.96, +8.26) jumped 7.0% after reporting better-than-expected revenue guidance for the current quarter.

On the downside, the heavily-weighted health care sector (-1.5%) was the weakest group, tumbling for the second day in a row. Investors were still concerned about Tuesday's news that Amazon (AMZN 1450.89, +13.07), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A 323375, +375), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 115.67, +0.56) are partnering to form a company to reduce health care cost for their employees, but a renewed promise from President Trump to reduce prescription drug prices also weighed on the sector.

President Trump made that promise during his State of the Union address on Tuesday evening. The president stayed on script throughout the speech, calling for a $1.5 trillion infrastructure plan and a compromise on immigration that would allow a path to citizenship for "Dreamers" in exchange for his promised barrier along the Mexico border and added border security.

In the bond market, U.S. Treasuries finished Wednesday mixed; the 10-yr yield slipped one basis point to 2.72%, while the 2-yr yield climbed two basis points to 2.14%.

Reviewing Wednesday's economic data, which included the ADP Employment Change report for January, the Chicago PMI for January, the Employment Cost Index for the fourth quarter, Pending Home Sales for December, and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index:

  • The ADP National Employment Report showed an increase of 234,000 in January (consensus 190,000). The December reading was revised to 242,000 from 250,000.
  • The Chicago PMI for January hit 65.7 (consensus 61.0), down from 67.6 in December.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that manufacturing activity in the Chicago Fed region is still humming along near multi-year high levels. The January 2018 reading was the best January reading in seven years.
  • The fourth quarter Employment Cost Index rose 0.6%, while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.5%.
    • The key takeaway is that compensation costs, led by wages and salaries, are rising slowly, but steadily, which will keep market participants focused on the prospect of inflation picking up with wage and salary growth.
  • Pending Home Sales increased 0.5% in December (consensus +0.6%). Today's reading follows a revised 0.3% increase in November (from 0.2%).
  • The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index decreased 2.6% to follow last week's 4.5% rise.

On Thursday, investors will receive a number of economic reports, including weekly Initial Claims (consensus 238K), the preliminary readings for fourth quarter Productivity (consensus +1.0%) and Unit Labor Costs (consensus +1.0%), the ISM Manufacturing Index for January (consensus 58.5), and Construction Spending for December (consensus +0.3%).

In addition, auto and truck sales for January will be released throughout the day.

  • Nasdaq Composite: +7.4% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +5.8% YTD
  • S&P 500: +5.6% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +2.6% YTD

>>> Facebook beats by $0.24, beats on revs

Facebook beats by $0.24, beats on revs (186.89 -0.23)

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $2.21 per share, excluding $0.77 charge from tax reform, $0.24 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $1.97; revenues rose 47.3% year/year to $12.97 bln vs the $12.55 bln Capital IQ Consensus. Mobile advertising revenue -- Mobile advertising revenue represented ~89% of advertising revenue for the fourth quarter of 2017, up from ~84% of advertising revenue in the fourth quarter of 2016.
Daily active users (DAUs) -- DAUs were 1.40 billion on average for December 2017, an increase of 14% year-over-year.
Monthly active users (MAUs) -- MAUs were 2.13 billion as of December 31, 2017, an increase of 14% year-over-year.
Capital expenditures -- Capital expenditures were $2.26 billion and $6.73 billion for the fourth quarter and full year 2017, respectively.
Cash and cash equivalents and marketable securities -- Cash and cash equivalents and marketable securities were $41.71 billion at the end of the fourth quarter of 2017.
Headcount was 25,105 as of December 31, 2017, an increase of 47% year-over-year.

>>> Mi crosoft beats by $0.09, beats on revs; co will provide outlook on call

Microsoft beats by $0.09, beats on revs; co will provide outlook on call (95.01 +2.27)

Reports Q2 (Dec) earnings of $0.96 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.09 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.87; revenues rose 12.0% year/year to $28.92 mln vs the $28419.6 mln Capital IQ Consensus.
Revenue in Productivity and Business Processes was $9.0 billion and increased 25% (up 24% in constant currency
Revenue in Intelligent Cloud was $7.8 billion and increased 15% (up 15% in constant currency)
Revenue in More Personal Computing was $12.2 billion and increased 2% (up 2% in constant currency),

>>> PayPal beats by $0.03, beats on revs

PayPal beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS in-line, revs above consensus; guides FY17 EPS and revs above consensus (85.32 +1.54)

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.55 per share, $0.03 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.52; revenues rose 25.6% year/year to $3.74 bln vs the $3.64 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
PayPal processed $131 billion in TPV in the fourth quarter, representing growth of 32%, or 29% on an FX-neutral basis. Merchant Services TPV grew 36%, or 33% on an FX-neutral basis, and represented 87% of overall TPV for the quarter. eBay volume grew 10%, or 7% on an FX-neutral basis, and represented approximately 13% of overall TPV for the fourth quarter versus approximately 16% a year ago. Person-to-Person (P2P) volume grew 50% to approximately $27 billion, and represented approximately 20% of TPV in the fourth quarter. Venmo, the company's social payments platform, processed $10.4 billion in payment volume in the fourth quarter, an increase of 86% year over year, and for the first time surpassed $10 billion in payment volume processed in a quarter. For the full year, Venmo's volume increased 97% with approximately $35 billion in payment volume processed.
Co issues guidance for Q1, sees EPS of $0.52 to $0.54 vs. $0.54 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees Q1 revs of $3.58 bln to $3.63 bln vs. $3.55 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
Co issues upside guidance for FY17, sees EPS of $2.24 to $2.30 vs. $1.87 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees FY17 revs of $15.00 bln to $15.25 bln vs. $12.98 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.

>>> Qualcomm beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS in-line, revs in-line

Qualcomm beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS in-line, revs in-line (68.25 +1.26)

Reports Q1 (Dec) earnings of $0.98 per share, $0.07 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.91; revenues rose 1.7% year/year to $6.1 bln vs the $5.93 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
Did not record any QTL revenues in the first quarter of fiscal 2018 or fourth quarter of fiscal 2017 for royalties due on sales of Apple's or the other licensee's products. The first quarter of fiscal 2017 results included approximately $740 million in QTL revenues related to the products of Apple and the other licensee in dispute.
Currently estimate that it will pay $3.3 billion for the Toll Charge, after application of certain tax credits, which is payable in installments over eight years beginning on January 15, 2019.
Reiterates NXPI transaction expected to close in early calendar 2018.
Co issues in-line guidance for Q2, sees EPS of $0.65-0.75 vs. $0.86 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees Q2 revs of $4.8-5.6 bln vs. $5.57 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
Reaffirms 2019 cost reduction plans announced on January 16.
Has not included estimates related to the operating results of proposed acquisition of NXP in our second quarter of fiscal 2018 outlook.

(Makor Oscar Gruss) The year of Structured Equity

This is shaping up as the year of the reverse-merger or spin-merger. 

 

Recently announced deals:

 

** FOX/DIS

** LQ/CPLG

** DPS/GMCR

** XRX/Fuji-XRX JV

** TRI CN/F&R carveout

** And possibly VMW/Dell Parent and GGP/Brookfield UpReit NewCo in the pipeline, as we have discussed.

 

Overall this is good news.  Lots of stubs and temporary HoldCos created, tough to understand and value.  It will be an interesting year… With plenty of trading opportunities for both RV traders and risk arbitrageurs.

 

>>> Juniper Networks: Color on the Qtr

Juniper Networks: Color on the Qtr (28.32)

Stifel notes that Juniper's hyperscale headwinds are transitory and a resumption in routing and switching spend from these customers will occur in 2019, with higher revenue levels benefitting GM%, partially offset by mix. They see Juniper's discounted valuation reflecting skepticism in a rebound with concerns current softness may be more structural in nature, noting risk to their 2019 estimates in the event hyperscale does not rebound. Given the company's GM% has been trending downward, uncertainty whether hyperscale softness is transitory or fundamental, and expectations for telco to remain pressured in the intermediate term, they reiterate their Hold rating and adjust price target from $28 to $27.
Barclays lowered its price target on Juniper Networks to $23.00 (from $25.00) while maintaining an Underweight rating.

JNPR is down approx -10% pre-market