>>>

Research Calls I
  • Upgrades:
    • Armour Residential REIT (ARR) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jones Trading, tgt $20.50
    • AutoNation (AN) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $235
    • BioNTech (BNTX) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs, tgt $142
    • Callaway Golf Company (CALY) upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc Capital Markets; tgt $17
    • Coupang (CPNG) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank, tgt $25
    • Enbridge (ENB) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at Scotiabank
    • Garmin (GRMN) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays, tgt $217
    • Grab Holdings (GRAB) upgraded to Buy from Hold at HSBC, tgt $6.20
    • Honeywell (HON) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $255
    • Monster Beverage (MNST) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BNP Paribas Exane, tgt $77
    • Rocket Lab (RKLB) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $105
    • Seagate Technology (STX) upgraded to Neutral from Negative at Susquehanna, tgt $280
    • Yeti Holdings (YETI) upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc, tgt $57
  • Downgrades:
    • 3M (MMM) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan, tgt $182
    • Acushnet Holdings (GOLF) downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc
    • Afya (AFYA) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS, tgt $16
    • Brown-Forman (BF.B) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BNP Paribas Exane, tgt $24
    • Central Garden & Pet (CENTA) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $28
    • Clearwater Analytics (CWAN) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at DA Davidson, tgt $24.55
    • ConocoPhillips (COP) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities, tgt $102
    • Eastman Chemical (EMN) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital, tgt $70
    • EOG Resources (EOG) downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc
    • Ermenegildo Zegna Group (ZGN) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities, tgt $11.20
    • Fortive (FTV) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $57
    • Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $49
    • HP Inc. (HPQ) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays, tgt $18
    • Iridium Communications (IRDM) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $24
    • J.M. Smucker (SJM) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $105
    • Kraft Heinz (KHC) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $24
    • Logitech International (LOGI) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays, tgt $98
    • Mach Natural Resources (MNR) downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc
    • Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $52
    • Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan, tgt $7.70
    • Meritage Homes (MTH) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities, tgt $82
    • MGM Resorts (MGM) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $33
    • Molson Coors (TAP) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BNP Paribas Exane, tgt $40
    • Sanofi (SNY) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS
    • Sasol (SSL) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan
    • The Honest Company (HNST) downgraded to Underweight from Overweight at JPMorgan
    • Tractor Supply (TSCO) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Truist, tgt $55
    • Volvo (VLVLY) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
  • Others:
    • Construction Partners (ROAD) initiated with a Neutral at B. Riley, tgt $117
    • Knife River (KNF) initiated with a Buy at B. Riley, tgt $92
    • Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) initiated with a Neutral at B. Riley, tgt $700
    • Munich Re (MURGY) initiated with a Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
    • STAAR Surgical (STAA) resumed with an Underweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $13
    • TFS Financial (TFSL) assumed with a Neutral at Piper Sandler, tgt $15
    • Unity Software (U) initiated with a Buy at Freedom Capital, tgt $52
    • Vulcan Materials (VMC) initiated with a Buy at B. Riley, tgt $345

>>> US Research Calls I

Research Calls I
  • Upgrades:
    • Armour Residential REIT (ARR) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jones Trading, tgt $20.50
    • AutoNation (AN) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $235
    • BioNTech (BNTX) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Sachs, tgt $142
    • Callaway Golf Company (CALY) upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc Capital Markets; tgt $17
    • Coupang (CPNG) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank, tgt $25
    • Enbridge (ENB) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at Scotiabank
    • Garmin (GRMN) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays, tgt $217
    • Grab Holdings (GRAB) upgraded to Buy from Hold at HSBC, tgt $6.20
    • Honeywell (HON) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $255
    • Monster Beverage (MNST) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BNP Paribas Exane, tgt $77
    • Rocket Lab (RKLB) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $105
    • Seagate Technology (STX) upgraded to Neutral from Negative at Susquehanna, tgt $280
    • Yeti Holdings (YETI) upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc, tgt $57
  • Downgrades:
    • 3M (MMM) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan, tgt $182
    • Acushnet Holdings (GOLF) downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc
    • Afya (AFYA) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS, tgt $16
    • Brown-Forman (BF.B) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BNP Paribas Exane, tgt $24
    • Central Garden & Pet (CENTA) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $28
    • Clearwater Analytics (CWAN) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at DA Davidson, tgt $24.55
    • ConocoPhillips (COP) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities, tgt $102
    • Eastman Chemical (EMN) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital, tgt $70
    • EOG Resources (EOG) downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc
    • Ermenegildo Zegna Group (ZGN) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities, tgt $11.20
    • Fortive (FTV) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $57
    • Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $49
    • HP Inc. (HPQ) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays, tgt $18
    • Iridium Communications (IRDM) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $24
    • J.M. Smucker (SJM) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $105
    • Kraft Heinz (KHC) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $24
    • Logitech International (LOGI) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays, tgt $98
    • Mach Natural Resources (MNR) downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc
    • Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $52
    • Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan, tgt $7.70
    • Meritage Homes (MTH) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities, tgt $82
    • MGM Resorts (MGM) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $33
    • Molson Coors (TAP) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BNP Paribas Exane, tgt $40
    • Sanofi (SNY) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS
    • Sasol (SSL) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan
    • The Honest Company (HNST) downgraded to Underweight from Overweight at JPMorgan
    • Tractor Supply (TSCO) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Truist, tgt $55
    • Volvo (VLVLY) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
  • Others:
    • Construction Partners (ROAD) initiated with a Neutral at B. Riley, tgt $117
    • Knife River (KNF) initiated with a Buy at B. Riley, tgt $92
    • Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) initiated with a Neutral at B. Riley, tgt $700
    • Munich Re (MURGY) initiated with a Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
    • STAAR Surgical (STAA) resumed with an Underweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $13
    • TFS Financial (TFSL) assumed with a Neutral at Piper Sandler, tgt $15
    • Unity Software (U) initiated with a Buy at Freedom Capital, tgt $52
    • Vulcan Materials (VMC) initiated with a Buy at B. Riley, tgt $345

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • PNC +3.5%, MTB +1.1%
Other news:
  • IBRX +25.3% (enrollment in its registrational trial in BCG-naïve non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer has exceeded internal expectations; Anticipates submitting a BLA to FDA by end of 2026)
  • ASTS +7.4% (wins prime IDIQ position on Missile Defense Agency SHIELD program)
  • MU +5.5% (Director Teyin Liu bought 23,200 shares at $335.97 - $337.77 worth more than $7.8 mln)
  • NVO +4.4% (UK Medicines regulator approves up to 7.2mg dose of semaglutide ?(Wegovy) for patients with obesity only)
  • WWD +3.6% (to wind down China on-highway natural gas truck business)
  • COHR +3.6% (launches FieldMax Touch and FieldMax Touch Pro)
  • CC +2.4% ( to sell the remaining land at its former titanium dioxide manufacturing location in Taiwan)
  • BBIO +2% (prices offering of $550 mln of 0.75% convertible senior notes due 2033)
  • SLVM +1.4% (CEO letter to shareholders)
  • UMAC +1.3% ($2.1 mln order for drone components)
  • LWLG +1.3% (MOU with QPICs to accelerate the use of electro-optic polymers)
  • WS +1.3% (to acquire Kloeckner & Co)
  • GVA +1.2% (selected for $157 mln project by the City of Tucson)

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • QXO -6.4% (guidance; prices offering of 31,645,570 shares of its common stock at $23.80 per share), WIT -5.1%, JBHT -3.9%, RF -1.1%
Other news:
  • MOS -6.5% (issues market update and preliminary fourth quarter 2025 sales results)
  • DERM -2% (files $150 mln mixed shelf offering)
  • JHX -1% (to optimize manufacturing footprint; reaffirms FY26 guidance)
  • GETY -0.8% (disclosed litigation update; Appeals court affirmed previous ruling in favor of Alta Partners and CRCM)

>>> Mosaic issues market update and preliminary fourth quarter 2025 sales resul

Mosaic issues market update and preliminary fourth quarter 2025 sales results (27.58)
  • North American fertilizer demand declined well beyond normal seasonal softness in the fourth quarter, as fall applications were weak due to sustained pressure on grower economics and were exacerbated by an early onset of winter weather that compressed the application window. The market conditions were particularly challenging for phosphates due to lower relative affordability as compared to potash. Overall North America phosphate market shipments are estimated to have been down approximately 20% in the fourth quarter compared to a year ago. North American potash demand was also negatively affected, though only modestly.
  • The challenging market environment significantly impacted Mosaic fourth quarter performance with phosphate sales volumes at approximately 1.3 million tonnes and potash sales volumes at approximately 2.2 million tonnes.
  • In the fourth quarter, to respond to weaker demand, Mosaic adjusted its phosphate production plan and product mix, and redirected products to markets with stronger demand, resulting in production volumes that remained consistent with the prior quarter.
  • Challenging market conditions also weighed on cash flow with fourth quarter results pressured by lower sales and the resulting inventory build.
  • Brazil's fertilizer market deteriorated further in the fourth quarter, with intensifying credit constraints and heightened supplier competition, driven by an influx of lower-analysis phosphate products from China, which weighed heavily on demand and margins. As a result, Mosaic Fertilizantes' sales volumes fell meaningfully short of expectations. Full year sales volumes were approximately 9 million tonnes-flat year over year, but reflective of the broader market downturn.
  • Despite the extraordinarily weak fourth quarter, 2026 is positioned to be more constructive. Growers are expected to replenish nutrients removed by last year's strong crop, and additional government support payments are poised to stimulate demand for the North American spring application period. Phosphate markets are balanced to tight, a dynamic that is becoming more evident as spring demand accelerates, and as lower Chinese exports more acutely impact global markets, following that country's announcement of broader and longer-duration phosphate export restrictions that are expected to be in place through at least the first half of the year. Prices have already responded positively to global demand since the start of the year. Potash markets are balanced, and China's early contract settlement is expected to provide greater price stability and supports a positive outlook for Canpotex. Current industry expectations suggest that global phosphate and potash shipments could reach record levels in 2026. In Brazil, credit constraints persist but expanding planted acreage and strong crop yields are expected to support fertilizer demand in 2026 as growers rebuild soil nutrients, potentially setting another record for fertilizer demand in 2026. Importantly, the surge of low analysis phosphate imports from China does not appear likely to repeat itself given the export restrictions noted above.

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
  • Gapping up:
    • NVO +5.6%, WWD +3.6%, COHR +3.6%, MTB +3.2%, UMAC +2.3%, BBIO +2%, SVM +1.5%, SLVM +1.4%, LTRN +1.4%, CC +1.2%, GVA +1.2%, WS +1.2%, HRZN +1%, SXC +0.8%, MATW +0.8%
  • Gapping down:
    • QXO -5.3%, RF -4.9%, JBHT -4.6%, DERM -2%, JHX -1%, WAFD -0.7%

FT : US accuses EU of seeking cheese ‘monopoly’ in Mercosur deal

US accuses EU of seeking cheese ‘monopoly’ in Mercosur deal
Bloc and four South American countries will sign trade agreement on Saturday after 25 years of talks

Donald Trump’s trade officials have accused Brussels of attempting to secure a “monopoly” for its meats and cheeses in South America as part of its blockbuster trade deal with Mercosur countries.

The EU and four South American countries will on Saturday sign a trade agreement, after negotiating for 25 years, which would cut almost all tariffs across a combined market of 700mn people.

But US officials have hit out at the deal for harming American farmers, barring them from selling produce that is tied to particular places in European countries, such as prosciutto di Parma, feta cheese and champagne.

“This is a blatant attempt to limit competition and export opportunities for non-EU suppliers to fairly trade in this large dairy and processed meat market,” said one US official familiar with the negotiations.

“The deal would basically give EU producers a monopoly for these products and would lock out producers from the US.”

The objections come as transatlantic trade tensions escalate between Washington and Brussels over the bloc’s slow pace in cutting tariffs and regulations following a limited trade deal agreed last year. 

The Trump administration’s concern for its agricultural exports follows a $12bn bailout to US farmers last year after the sector was battered by the US president’s trade war.

The official said the US had repeatedly raised its concerns with countries including Brazil and the EU, which would secure protection for more than 340 named foods, as part of trade negotiations.

A trade negotiator for a Mercosur nation said that “geographical indication” for certain products was a long-running gripe for the Americans, but insisted they had not been contacted about the issue recently.

The complaints about the deal between the EU and Mercosur come as Washington makes an aggressive push to secure geopolitical influence across the western hemisphere as part of its so-called Donroe Doctrine. 

In recent weeks Trump has launched a military operation to seize Venezuela’s leader Nicolás Maduro, and warned that Cuba, Colombia and Mexico could all be next in America’s crosshairs.

A majority of European member states backed the terms of the deal last week, despite widespread opposition from farmers, who claim that their counterparts in Mercosur operate with lower standards for animal treatment and pesticide use.

The deal represents a new push by the EU to secure lucrative trade agreements aimed at countering Trump’s aggressive protectionism and tariffs.

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen made a veiled rebuke to Trump when EU member states approved it last week. 

“At a time when trade and dependencies are being weaponised and the dangerous, transactional nature of the reality we live in becomes increasingly stark, this historic trade deal is further proof that Europe charts its own course and stands as a reliable partner,” she said.

She also shrugged off any idea the EU should stay out of the western hemisphere, adding it was “testament to the endurance and strength of our relationship with Latin America, and one that will bring us closer together”. 

The Commission declined to comment. The US trade representative’s office declined to comment. Brazil’s trade ministry declined to comment.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 16th of January 2026 V3(++)

>>> Up
* ASML PT Raised to 1,400 euros from 1,000 euros at Morgan Stanley
* Atlas Copco Raised to Buy at Nordea; PT 220 kronor (+)
* Ayvens PT Raised to 14.50 euros from 13.20 euros at UBS (++)
* Basic-Fit PT Raised to 43 euros from 35 euros at ING (++)
* Biohit Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 3.70 euros
* Close Brothers Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT 625 pence
* Estee Lauder PT Raised to $100 from $91 at Barclays (++)
* Garmin Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $217
* Grab Holdings Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $6.20 (++)
* Gym Group Raised to Outperform at RBC on Cheaper Memberships (+)
* Gym Group PLC Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT 200 pence
* Exosens SAS PT Raised to 61 euros from 54 euros at Bernstein
* NCAB Group Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 59 kronor
* Polar Capital PT Raised to 750 pence at Panmure Liberum (+)
* Roche Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT 365 Swiss francs
* Rocket Lab Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $105
* Stolt-Nielsen PT Raised to 495 kroner at DNB Carnegie (++)
* Tecan Raised to Market Perform at Bernstein; PT 156 Swiss francs (+)
* Valiant PT Raised to 530 Swiss francs at Bank Vontobel (+)
* Vitec Software Group Raised to Buy at SEB Equities
* Watches of Switzerland Raised to Buy at BofA (+)

>>> Down
* 3M Co Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $182
* Bossard PT Cut to 150 Swiss francs from 162 Swiss francs at UBS (++)
* Brunello Cucinelli Cut to Neutral at BofA (+)
* Colonial SFL Socimi Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 6.40 euros
* Deutsche Beteiligungs Cut to Hold at Bankhaus Metzler (+)
* Eastman Chemical Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $70
* EasyJet Cut to Hold at Goodbody; PT 525 pence (+)
* Heidelberg Materials Cut to Neutral at On Field; PT 235 euros (+)
* Hilton Grand Vacations Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* HP Inc. Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $18
* INWIT PT Cut to 8 euros from 10.10 euros at Jefferies (+)
* Iridium Communications Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* J M Smucker Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $105
* Kloeckner Cut to Sell at M.M. Warburg; PT 11 euros (+)
* Kloeckner Cut to Hold at Bankhaus Metzler; PT 11 euros (++)
* Kloeckner Cut to Sell at DZ Bank (++)
* Kraft Heinz Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $24
* Logitech Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 78.65 Swiss francs
* Maersk Cut to Sell at Arctic Securities; PT 11,900 kroner
* Mandatum Cut to Sell at Nordea
* Marriott Vacations Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $52
* MGM Resorts Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $33
* Mowi Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 230 kroner
* NOBA Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 130 kronor
* Norma Cut to Hold at Bankhaus Metzler; PT 15 euros (+)
* Novo PT Raised to 400 kroner from 340 kroner at BofA (++)
* Outokumpu Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 5 euros
* Petrobras ADRs Cut to Neutral at Banco BTG Pactual; PT $15
* Richemont Cut to Neutral at BofA (+)
* Sanofi Cut to Neutral at UBS (+)
* Savills Cut to Add at Peel Hunt; PT 1,200 pence
* SBO AG Cut to Accumulate at Erste Group; PT 37.20 euros
* Strategy PT Cut to $403 from $484 at Mizuho Securities (++)
* Vestas Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 180 kroner
* Volvo Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Zegna Group Cut to Neutral at BofA (+)

>>> Initiation
* ARM Holdings ADRs Reinstated Outperform at Haitong Intl (+)
* Cirsa Enterprises Rated New Outperform at BNP Paribas
* Endur ASA Rated New Buy at DNB Carnegie; PT 100 kroner (++)
* Frontline PLC Reinstated Buy at DNB Carnegie; PT 320 kroner (++)
* Helvetia Baloise Holding Reinstated Outperform at Mediobanca SpA
* InterContinental Hotels Rated New Outperform at CICC
* Intercos Rated New Outperform at Mediobanca SpA; PT 15 euros
* Mildef Group Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 190 kronor
* Munich Re Rated New Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 600 euros (+)
* Pathos Communications Rated New Buy at Cavendish; PT 42 pence (+)

>>> Call
* ASML Price Target Raised 40% at Morgan Stanley on Capex Growth (+)
* CTP, Merlin Among Oddo BHF Real Estate Picks, 10 Rating Changes
* HP Cut to Sell at CFRA on Memory Costs and ‘Anemic’ Growth
* LSEG Is Preferred Exchange at Jefferies Ahead of Earnings Season (++)
* Morgan Stanley Sees Overheating in China Stocks Sentiment
* NCAB Jumps as Pareto Upgrades to Buy on Strong Growth (++)
* Pearson Extends Fall on US Contract Loss; Barclays Cuts Target (++)
* RBC Upgrades Close Brothers Over Potential to Trim Costs Further (+)
* Sanofi Cut to Neutral From Buy at UBS on Pipeline Concern (1) (+)
* Stolt-Nielsen Gains as DNB Carnegie Sets New Street-High Target (++)
* Outokumpu Earnings Upgrades Unlikely Near-Term, Jefferies Cuts
* Vitec Gains as SEB Upgrades, Says Share Slide Excessive (1)