Barron's : Why This Star Mid-Cap Fund Likes Ralph Lauren and Planet Fitness

Why This Star Mid-Cap Fund Likes Ralph Lauren and Planet Fitness

Mid-cap companies are often overlooked by investors, who either stick with large-cap companies or look to small-cap names if they want to diversify. But 2026 may be the year mid-caps come out of the shadows.

Several factors are coming together that could make this year an exciting time for the stock market’s middle child, say Don Peters and Dante Pearson, managers of the $4.4 billion T. Rowe Price Diversified Mid Cap Growth fund.

Compared with large-cap companies, mid-caps generally need more money to grow, so as the Federal Reserve continues its easing cycle, midsize companies often receive an outsize benefit from lowered borrowing costs. The outlook for earnings growth is strong for 2026, and companies that are going public now are often listing as mid-caps—instead of small-caps—having stayed private for longer. Finally, mergers and acquisitions activity could increase because of an accommodating regulatory environment, further giving mid-caps a boost.

Unlike more-volatile small-cap companies still gaining their footing, or large-cap companies unlikely to experience rapid growth, the best mid-cap companies are transforming into higher-margin, higher-return-on-capital businesses. But only about 15 sell-side analysts on average cover mid-cap companies, so many good ones are growing unnoticed, the fund’s managers say.

“That’s one of the many benefits that we appreciate in mid-cap investing,” Pearson says.

Morningstar gives Mid Cap Growth five stars and a silver medal, which means the firm has a high conviction the fund will outperform its index and its peers over a full market cycle on a risk-adjusted basis. The no-load fund charges annual fees of 0.84%, which Morningstar calls below average.

The fund beats its peers across short- and long-term time frames. It has a 14% 10-year annualized return versus peers’ return of 12.1%, putting it in the top 10% of mid-cap growth funds. Mid Cap Growth also beats the Russell Mid Cap Growth index’s 10-year return of 13.3%, net of fees.

Peters has run the fund since its 2003 inception, and Pearson has worked with Peters since joining T. Rowe in 2017, first as an analyst; he was officially named associate portfolio manager in 2024. At the end of December, Pearson will take over as lead portfolio manager, and Peters will leave the fund after a transition. Peters will continue to manage the $1.4 billion T. Rowe Price Tax-Efficient Equity fund. “It will be the most uneventful transition on record because we’ve worked together for years,” Pearson says. “Consistency is the approach.”

The duo seeks steady, long-term outperformance through disciplined stock selection, rather than by timing the market or making big sector bets.

“We want to have companies that we think will grow up to become larger and successful,” says Peters. “Successful companies are good capital allocators, have management teams that execute well, and aren’t overvalued.”

They rely on T. Rowe analysts’ bottom-up fundamental research to find companies trading at discounts relative to their history and that show signs Wall Street is underestimating long-term revenue growth. Peters and Pearson have found over the years that, more than any other metric, the strength of analysts’ expectations is key to how well stocks will perform.

“Nothing always works, but when good news is happening to companies, when numbers are moving up, your hit rate goes up substantially. That’s our focus more than any specific style or [metric],” Pearson says.

They also have sharp risk controls. Every six months they review all their investments, looking at corporate debt levels and revisiting portfolio positioning to map out how each holding correlates with other investments and to estimate how each name would perform during bearish market extremes. Peters says they consider risk management as a contributor to their excess return.


Peters and Pearson let their winners ride to take advantage of compounding, but they will gradually sell when mid-caps graduate to large-caps, using the Russell Mid Cap benchmark cutoff as their guide.

One of the bigger mid-cap names they own is No. 1 holding Howmet Aerospace, which they first bought in 2022. The specialty-parts manufacturer of aerospace components contributed handsomely to last year’s strong performance. It is currently trading at 47 times 12-month forward earnings, which Peters says is somewhat expensive, but it boasts consensus estimates of 23.8% on long-term revenue growth over three to five years.

Mid Cap Growth bought luxury-goods company Ralph Lauren this past summer, and the duo are impressed with how management continues to nurture the brand. It trades at 21.7 times 12-month forward earnings, and long-term revenue growth is estimated at 13.5%.

“They’re playing the long game and are cheaper than the traditional European luxury companies,” Peters says, also pointing out that Ralph Lauren isn’t overly dependent on any one region for growth, unlike some peers that were overexposed to Chinese consumers when that economy softened.

Two purchases in the past 12 months demonstrate how Peters and Pearson think about portfolio composition to keep their roughly 245 holdings diversified.

They bought Encompass Health, the dominant player in the patient rehabilitation hospital market, in June 2024. They expect it to benefit from demographic demand as baby boomers and Gen Xers need services such as joint replacements and have major medical events such as strokes. Costs for these services are cheaper at hospitals like Encompass, Peters says. The stock trades at 18.2 times 12-month forward earnings, with long-term growth estimates around 14.4%. They expect this lesser-known company will be a solid compounder.

Peters and Pearson are impressed by the way Colleen Keating, the relatively new CEO of Planet Fitness, seems to be turning around the company. She was brought on in June 2024, and the duo bought the low-cost gym franchise a month later, with an eye on the trend of healthy living.

“It’s easy to join and quit, so it’s not a roach motel for customers,” Peters says, noting that it trades at 29.2 times 12-month forward earnings, with growth estimates at 15.6%.

Mid Cap Growth’s portfolio is intentionally structured to prevent a few holdings from dominating returns. That diversity also helps the portfolio perform in various economic environments, the duo says. With its focus on valuation, the fund tends to lag behind its peers when market leadership is driven by speculative or risk-seeking markets, or when markets are driven strongly by momentum.

While they see 2026 as being a good year for mid-caps, Peters and Pearson don’t take views on the economy, market direction, or other macroeconomic calls as they look for potential new holdings.

“We generally just try to find low-cost producers that have good capital allocation,” Peters says.

Barrons : New Trade Pact Is Giving a Boost to European Stocks. Why It Isn’t Bigg

New Trade Pact Is Giving a Boost to European Stocks. Why It Isn’t Bigger.

With the U.S. and China battling for economic and geopolitical supremacy, it’s fashionable to cast Europe as the global sick man.

The European Union’s trade deficit with China has nearly doubled since before the pandemic, reflecting eroding competitiveness in advanced industrial goods. The Old World is all but shut out of the artificial-intelligence revolution. Not to mention President Donald Trump threatening to seize Greenland from NATO ally Denmark.

“The Chinese have caught up in manufacturing, and we’ve been overtaken in AI,” says Carsten Brzeski, Frankfurt-based global head of macro at ING Research.

The EU took a small step toward battling back on Jan. 9, when enough member states backed a free-trade agreement with the Mercosur bloc of South America, including Brazil, Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Small is the operative word for the moment. The EU’s two-way trade with Brazil, the Mercosur giant, was less than 5% of its combined volumes with the U.S. and China last year.

“This is as much a political message as an economic agreement,” says Eoin Drea, senior researcher at the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies.

Protests by European farmers nearly sunk the Mercosur pact after 25 years of negotiation. A last-minute switch to “Yes” by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni pushed it over the statutory line of approval by states comprising at least 65% of the EU population.

But the EU, whose collective gross domestic product still rivals China’s as the global No. 2, has it eyes on a bigger role: anchor for a rest-of-the-world seeking alternatives to two increasingly heavy-handed superpowers. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, on a Jan. 12 visit to India, floated a Delhi-Brussels trade pact within a month. The EU and Japan last year upgraded their 2019 “economic partnership agreement” to a “competitive alliance” meant to “promote bilateral investment and simplify rules for business,” according to an EU press release.

The EU-Mercosur pact could also boost a few stocks, though immediate market reaction was tepid. European auto makers Stellantis and Volkswagen have the four top-selling models in Brazil, which should become more affordable with tariffs plunging.

Winners on the South American side could include JBS, the Brazilian company that is the world’s biggest meat packager, smaller rival Marfrig Global Foods, and paper giant Suzano Papel e Celulose. “Paper mills in Europe have been closing down,” notes Michael Field, European equity strategist at Morningstar.

The EU pursues its trade counteroffensive with some economic wind at its back. The bloc has stuck the soft landing from postpandemic inflation that so far eludes the U.S. European Central Bank interest rates are at 2%, with inflation holding steady around that level.

Growth chugs along above 1% annually with Germany’s long-awaited fiscal stimulus starting to materialize. Power prices have substantially recovered from their shock after Russia invaded Ukraine nearly four years ago. “We’re in a Goldilocks period,” Brzeski says.

Most of that good news is already in stock prices after the iShares Europe exchange-traded fund climbed 35% over the past year, Morningstar’s Field thinks. “The easy gains are over,” he says. ING looks for a 6% return on European stocks this year, Brzeski says.

Europe needs to use the benign macro backdrop, and a political breather before French presidential elections in 2027, to rebuild competitive muscle. “The next two years will really show if we are able to turn things around,” Brzeski says.

Barron's : AI Bonds Could Devour Credit Markets. Let Stock Investors Take the Ri

AI Bonds Could Devour Credit Markets. Let Stock Investors Take the Risk.
Amazon, Meta, and other large tech companies are issuing more debt than ever. Why you should steer clear.

Key Points
  • Hyperscalers issued over $120 billion in high-grade bonds last year, a sevenfold increase from the previous year, to fund AI infrastructure.
  • Premiums on hyperscaler bonds over Treasuries have risen by 0.15 to 0.6 percentage point, while broad high-grade spreads increased by 0.05 point.
  • If four hyperscalers reach one times Ebitda leverage by 2030, it could generate $852 billion in new debt, increasing tech’s market share to 22%.

The AI trade has spread beyond stocks, but bond investors should do what they can to avoid it.

Artificial intelligence has been a winner for equity investors. An equal-weight basket of Amazon.com, Meta Platforms, Oracle, Microsoft, and Alphabet shares—the five main “hyperscalers”—rallied an average of 23% last year, outperforming the S&P 500’s 16% rise. But as the demand for more computing power has risen, so has the need for cash to build out data centers and fill them up with specialized chips, industrial-grade liquid cooling, and networking systems.

After first using free cash to fund their AI spending, these hyperscalers—or large-scale data center operators—have turned to debt, issuing over $120 billion in high-grade bonds last year, about seven times more than the year before, and the amount should continue to grow.

Bonds, however, aren’t stocks. When an investor buys a share of a company, they are expecting capital appreciation and perhaps dividends, and the gains are potentially unlimited. Bond investors, by contrast, are generally expecting a fixed return—the interest they are being paid—and some small appreciation, while taking on the risk, however small, of a total wipeout in the case of default.

That would be unlikely for these tech companies, but for most fixed-income investors, stability and predictability take precedence over hot themes such as AI.

“We expect to get our money back,” says Ryan Jungk, an investment-grade portfolio manager at Newfleet Asset Management. “And so all this extra risk/extra reward is not what we want necessarily from our highest-quality issuers.”

The good news for buyers is that yields look more appealing than they did back in mid-September—premiums on hyperscaler bonds over ultrasafe Treasuries have jumped as much as 0.6 percentage points, while broad high-grade spreads rose less than 0.05 point—but these tech bonds also have far greater risks. Oracle saw its gauge for default risk hit a 16-year high late last year amid projections for higher capital expenditures and a new disclosure of an additional $248 billion in lease commitments, much of it likely from OpenAI.

While Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan, among others, expect megacap tech stocks to dominate this year, the same isn’t true for tech bonds, which are underweighted by Morgan Stanley, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and J.P. Morgan. The expected flood of new tech debt is a frequent complaint despite the pristine quality of some of these bonds; Bank of America strategists estimate borrowing in the sector could hit as much as $950 billion over three years.

It’s that flood—and not default risks—that worry many analysts. Microsoft’s gross debt is only 0.22 times its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda, which means it could theoretically pay all its debt in under three months. Alphabet has the next best ratio at 0.49 times, while Amazon’s leverage ratio is 0.56 times and Meta’s is 0.57 times. Even including lease commitments barely moves the needle, except for Amazon, whose leverage ratio rises above a still unconcerning 1.

Oracle is the outlier at 4.1 times Ebitda, but the other four have plenty of room for more capital. If they raised their leverage ratios to 1 times Ebitda by 2030, it would generate $852 billion in new debt, notes Nate Liddle, a senior fixed-income analyst at Columbia Threadneedle Investments. That level of issuance would more than double the tech sector’s share, including Amazon and Meta, from 10.5% to about 22%, muscling up close to banking, which accounts for 23% of the value of investment-grade debt.


There’s room on their balance sheets, Liddle says, but not enough capacity in the market to handle it.

Large sector increases have led to big trouble in the past. In 2014, investors enthused about U.S. energy production handed out billions to oil-and-gas companies at cheap rates. Fracking gained so much momentum so quickly that energy became an ever increasing part of the speculative-grade debt market—until the companies couldn’t pay back investors. Similar dynamics led to a raft of telecom defaults in the early 2000s and the builder bust in the mid-2000s spurred by broad excitement around home-price appreciation.

“When a sector of a market goes from very small to very large, those are the environments where you can have excessive risks build up,” says Robert Cohen, head of DoubleLine’s global developed-credit team. “You have to be on alert.”

Still, the bonds offer enough yield to draw fund managers who are looking to beat their low-risk, government-focused benchmarks. While a 10-year U.S. Treasury note yields 4.17%, Microsoft’s 10-year bonds yield 4.22%, Amazon’s yield 4.69%, Meta’s yield 4.92%, and Alphabet’s yield 4.69%. Even Oracle, with 10-year yields of 5.78%, doesn’t have a history of default.

For many investors, a little extra yield over Treasuries feels like a manageable risk. “Ultimately, there’s going to be some mal-investment, something’s not going to work out in economic fashion,” says Janet Rilling, a senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments. She recently bought 10-year and 30-year Meta bonds for the firm’s Core Plus exchange-traded fund and mutual fund, and purchased Oracle five- and 10-year bonds in September. “It’s our job to select the winners.”

While Ed Al-Hussainy, a portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle, says the additional spread is “so fantastic” for fund managers mandated to buy investment-grade bonds, he is looking elsewhere, particularly at mortgage-backed securities issued by the likes of Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac. Among corporates, bank bonds are almost universally loved on Wall Street. They’re the opposite of tech, “given elevated capital levels and the prospect for less issuance in 2026,” says Newfleet’s Jungk.

Ultimately, the massive speculative capital spending is delivering the exact opposite of what a bond investor requires: safety, certainty and frugality. If you’re enthused about AI, stick to the stock market.

>>> MASTERS' PLAYBOOK 2026 | 30 Picks | Full Thesis & Targets Inside

The roundtable skews toward quality compounders with margin expansion (Starbucks, Nestlé, LVMH), AI productivity plays (Deere, Synopsys, DoorDash), and special situations (Becton Dickinson spinoff, six biotech M&A targets, three recent acquirers optimizing for synergies). Most targets imply 15–25% annual IRR through 2028, with housing/interest-rate mean reversion as a key macro leveler.

Full artilce attched


BARRON'S 2026 ROUNDTABLE: 30 STOCKS TO BUY
Five Masters of the Game on Valuations, AI Tailwinds, and Market Rotations

KEY THEMES
AI Capex Cycle: DoorDash, Deere, Synopsys, Home Depot all leveraging AI/automation for productivity and revenue capture.
Biotech M&A Wave: Six biotech picks poised for acquisition (Cytokinetics, Arcellx, Apogee, Vaxcyte, Dyne, BioNTech) amid $400–$500B patent cliff opportunity.
Turnaround/Cyclical: Starbucks, Nestlé, LVMH, Home Depot, Becton Dickinson all recovering from operational/cyclical headwinds.
Scale Advantages: DoorDash, MercadoLibre, Allison, Cactus, Waste Management, Nike consolidating market share.

HENRY ELLENBOGEN | Durable Capital Partners
Stock Price (1/2/26) 1-Sentence Thesis 2026 Target
DoorDash (DASH) $219.79 Dominant 70% US market-share player leveraging AI to unlock high-margin ad revenue (growing 70%+ annually) while standardizing global platform. $325–$390 (48–78% upside)
MercadoLibre (MELI) $1,973.70 Latin America's dominant facilities-based e-commerce platform with 30%+ organic unit growth and only 2.3% GMV monetized through ads—long runway ahead. ~$3,940 (100% upside)
XPO Logistics (XPO) $138.79 Less-than-truckload trucking modernized through technology, delivering 2% labor savings even as volumes fell—poised for 20%+ annual returns. 25–30x forward earnings
RBC Bearings (RBC) $458.79 Mission-critical aerospace/defense supplier with $2B backlog (up from $825M); sole supplier on 70% of products; defense to hit 50% of cash flow by year-end. $19–$20 EPS (2028)
Shift4 Payments (FOUR) $62.68 Payments processor diversified away from restaurants (now 50%) with high-margin stadium and tax-free shopping businesses; trading at only 10x 2026 earnings. $90–$106 (40–60% upside)
DAVID GIROUX | T. Rowe Price Investment Management
Stock Price (1/2/26) 1-Sentence Thesis 2026 Target
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) $27.73 Cold beverage business generating mid-single-digit organic growth while pending JDE Peets acquisition unlocks massive sum-of-parts opportunity post-2026 split. $34–$36 + 3% dividend (29% upside)
Cytokinetics (CYTK) $61.73 Early-stage biotech play on $400B+ biosimilar/generics cycle (Keytruda off-patent 2028); acquisition target at premium multiples. M&A target
Arcellx (ACLX) $63.34 Biotech poised for acquisition as Big Pharma consolidates to combat patent cliff revenue headwinds. M&A target
Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) $75.78 Biotech acquisition candidate in attractive generics/biosimilar super-cycle. M&A target
Vaxcyte (PCVX) $46.46 Vaccine biotech with premium acquisition odds as pharma reshapes portfolios for GLP-1 and biosimilar era. M&A target
Dyne Therapeutics (DYN) $18.50 Biotech takeover candidate amid pharma's need for premium M&A to offset patent expirations. M&A target
BioNTech (BNTX) $96.69 Biotech poised for acquisition as consolidation accelerates across sector. M&A target
Starbucks (SBUX) $83.97 Turnaround story under new CEO Brian Niccol (ex-Chipotle); restoring premium positioning, labor efficiency, and ending aggressive discounting. $150–$180 (79–114% upside)
NiSource (NI) $42.16 Regulated utility in Indiana benefiting from Amazon data-center deal (saving ratepayers $1B over 15 years); EPS growth 11% through 2034. 13–14% total return
CenterPoint Energy (CNP) $38.73 Houston-based utility in fastest-growing US region; 9% EPS growth, low power costs (25% below national avg), no rate cases through 2028. Low-double-digit returns
Becton Dickinson (BDX) $194.94 Medical device turnaround as China VBP headwind clears, Alaris recall fades, and biotech spinoff (via Waters RMT) unlocks value. $140+ (adjusted for spinoff)

MERYL WITMER | Eagle Capital Partners
Stock Price (1/2/26) 1-Sentence Thesis 2026 Target
Cactus (WHD) $47.03 Oil & gas wellhead supplier acquiring Baker Hughes business; generating $4+ free cash flow per share with international upside in sour oil. High upside on execution
Allison Transmission (ALSN) $98.94 Heavy-duty transmission leader (75% market share) acquiring Dana's off-highway business for transformative international footprint and cost synergies. 50% upside in 2–3 years
Coats Group (COA.UK) GBp 83.60 Premium thread supplier acquiring OrthoLite (36% insole market share); new biodegradable and carbon-fiber products unlocking growth in athletic footwear. 140–150p (67–79% upside)

CHRISTOPHER ROSSBACH | J. Stern & Co., London
Stock Price (1/2/26) 1-Sentence Thesis 2026 Target
SAP (SAP) $236.92 Europe's largest software company (€43B revenue) capturing AI-driven productivity gains across enterprise workflows; cloud 25% growth, margins expanding 1%+ annually. Earnings growth 15%+
ASML Holding (ASML) $1,163.78 Sole EUV lithography supplier (35% of revenue) benefiting from AI chip demand and advanced node logic investment; 35x 2026 earnings. 18% earnings growth
Nestlé (NSRGY) $99.02 Turnaround under new CEO Philipp Navratil; 4.3% organic growth, job cuts, and L'Oréal stake (€40B) creating capital allocation optionality. 17%+ operating margins
LVMH (LVMUY) $150.84 Luxury cyclical recovery with new product innovation, retail execution, and mainland China returning to mid-to-high-single-digit growth; 50% DCF discount. 12% EPS growth (3–5 years)
Nike (NKE) $63.28 Running franchise innovation (20%+ growth in Pegasus, Vomero) under 30-year veteran CEO Elliott Hill; 2026 World Cup brand tailwind offsetting China headwinds. 21.2x FY2028 earnings

TODD AHLSTEN | Parnassus Investments
Stock Price (1/2/26) 1-Sentence Thesis 2026 Target
Stryker (SYK) $348.18 Orthopedic/med-surg leader with Mako robotics (1,000+ hospitals) gaining 8.5pts knee and 3.5pts hip share; anti-fragile model on consumables. $555 (17% annual IRR)
Boston Scientific (BSX) $94.71 Cardiovascular innovation (Farapulse AFib tech 40% penetration → 80%) and Watchman device (600K patients globally) driving 20%+ franchise growth. $172 (30x 2029 earnings)
Deere (DE) $466.80 AI/precision agriculture flywheel: 500M acres of data, $6B precision ag revenue, highly engaged acres doubling by 2030; 25% EPS growth potential through decade. $700–$800 (20x earnings)
Home Depot (HD) $345.82 Housing turnover at 2.9% (50-month downturn, historical low) creates cyclical opportunity; margins recovering from 13% to 15% as rates potentially fall below 6%. $463–$533 (10% base IRR)
Synopsys (SNPS) $480.42 EDA software backbone of AI chip race; design complexity rising 30–40x as transistor counts hit 100–200B (heading to 1T); EDA spend rising from 7–8% to 10–12% of R&D. $750 (56% upside in 2 years)
Waste Management (WM) $218.40 Landfill consolidation (top 3 now hold 60% capacity vs. 38% in 2008) and Stericycle acquisition ($7.2B) creating moat; recycling automation cutting labor costs 30–35%. $297 (12% annual return)



Source: Barron's Roundtable | Published Jan. 16, 2026
Panelists: Henry Ellenbogen, David Giroux, Meryl Witmer, Christopher Rossbach, Todd Ahlsten