>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 10th of May 2018

>>> Up
* Coloplast Upgraded to Hold at Berenberg
* Cott Upgraded to Buy at Jefferies
* Hamburger Hafen Upgraded to Buy at Commerzbank; PT 24 Euros
* IMI Upgraded to Buy at Jefferies
* SLM Solutions Upgraded to Buy at Canaccord; PT 39 Euros

>>> Down
* Austevoll Seafood Downgraded to Hold at Carnegie; PT 107 Kroner
* HaloSource Downgraded to Hold at Cantor; PT 10 Pence
* Interserve Downgraded to Hold at Liberum; PT 90 Pence
* Ipsen Downgraded to Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 145 Euros
* Nexus Downgraded to Hold at Berenberg
* Roche Downgraded to Market Perform at Bernstein
* Leroy Downgraded to Hold at Carnegie; PT 61 Kroner
* Norway Royal Salmon Cut to Hold at Carnegie; PT 190 Kroner
* Schroders Downgraded to Hold at Berenberg
* TGS Downgraded to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 244 Kroner
* Uniper Cut to Reduce at Commerzbank; Price Target 23.40 Euros

>>> Initiation
* Axa ADRs Rated New Buy at Spin-Off Research; PT $30

>>> Call
>> Sector
* EUROPEAN BANKS CUT TO NEUTRAL AT BERNSTEIN, INSURANCE RAISED

>>> Non, la Perse n'est pas devenue l'Iran pour faire plaisir à Hitler... - Le P



From: LCHEKROUN@makor-cm.com At: 05/09/18 14:44:50
To: LAURENT CHEKROUN (MAKOR SECURITIES LO )
Subject: Non, la Perse n'est pas devenue l'Iran pour faire plaisir à Hitler... - Le Point

Non, la Perse n'est pas devenue l'Iran pour faire plaisir à Hitler...

TRIBUNE. La Perse a-t-elle changé de nom pour complaire à l'Allemagne nazie ? La polémique fait rage. L'avocat Ardavan Amir-Aslani remet les pendules à l'heure.

Par Ardavan Amir-Aslani *

En 1935, Reza Shah Pahlavi a notoirement choisi de demander aux pays étrangers pour l'usage international de rebaptiser le pays « Iran » au lieu de « Perse ». « Rebaptiser » est bien le terme, car le pays avait déjà porté le nom d'« Iran » au temps des Sassanides, lorsqu'il s'appelait Ērānšahr, « Royaume des Aryens » ou « Royaume des Iraniens » en moyen-persan. C'était surtout le nom que les Iraniens eux-mêmes employaient depuis toujours pour désigner leur propre pays. Le titre n'avait donc rien de nouveau lorsqu'il fut repris par le fondateur de la dynastie Pahlavi.

XIR279364 © www.bridgemanimages.com / bridgeman

Bas-relief représentant un officier rendant hommage  au roi Darius.

© www.bridgemanimages.com / bridgeman

Pourtant, dans son dernier ouvrage, L'Empire et les Cinq Rois, M. Bernard-Henri Lévy affirme que c'est à la faveur du rapprochement diplomatique entre la Perse de Reza Shah Pahlavi et l'Allemagne d'Adolf Hitler, et plus encore, en raison d'une convergence idéologique, que le Shah décida de rayer d'un trait tout le passé glorieux de la Perse de Darius et de Xerxès et de la débaptiser pour l'inscrire davantage dans son identité « aryenne ». Une identité aryenne qui aurait été conforme à l'idéologie nazie sur la question... L'objectif non dissimulé de M. Bernard-Henri Lévy est bien entendu de démontrer que non seulement les Iraniens auraient partagé les vues des nazis sur le concept de race supérieure et, pourquoi pas, sur les juifs, mais que de surcroît, le shah aurait changé le nom de la Perse sur ordre d'Hitler.

« Aryen » pour les Iraniens désigne leur peuple

Que le shah ait souhaité se rapprocher de l'Allemagne nazie sur un plan diplomatique est une réalité, mais il faut la replacer dans son contexte pour la comprendre. Il faut aussi faire un peu d'étymologie et analyser les origines du nom « Iran » pour mieux comprendre pourquoi Reza Pahlavi a souhaité le reprendre au détriment du nom « Perse ».

Le mot « aryen », on le sait, a subi un terrible détournement de sens dès le XIXe siècle, à la faveur notamment des thèses de Joseph Arthur Gobineau exposées dans son Essai sur l'inégalité des races humaines. Considéré comme le père de la pensée raciste, Gobineau fut pillé sans honte par les nazis pour l'élaboration de leur propre idéologie.

« Aryen » pour les Iraniens ne désigne aucune race prétendument supérieure... mais tout simplement leur peuple. Sous les Sassanides, Aryānam Xshathra désignait « le royaume des Aryens », Âiriyā (à la résonance proche du nom « Iran ») signifiant « noble » en avestique, la langue indo-iranienne ancêtre du persan. À quelques milliers de kilomètres de là, en Inde, le sanskrit employait à peu près le même mot : « Âryā ». Ces deux branches linguistiques, l'une indo-aryenne, l'autre indo-iranienne, se sont séparées d'après les linguistes il y a près de 4 000 ans. Les tribus aryennes parlant la première poursuivirent leur route vers l'Est, pénétrant en Inde par le Pendjab. Les secondes se sont installées sur le plateau iranien.

Et c'est aux Sassanides qu'on doit le concept de nation iranienne, avec les termes « Ērān », Aryens, et « Ērānšahr », royaume des Aryens, ou des Iraniens, mots qui se veulent avant tout des notions ethniques et politiques plus qu'administratives. Comme je l'ai expliqué dans mon dernier ouvrage (1), Ērānšahr désignait le territoire dirigé par les Perses et essentiellement de culture perse et sassanide. On trouvait aussi des Iraniens en dehors des frontières sassanides, tels que les Sogdiens d'Asie centrale ou les Alains du Caucase du Nord, sans compter les Parthes d'Arménie. Vivaient, évidemment, des non-Iraniens au sein d'Ērānšahr, notamment les peuples sémites de l'Irak actuel. Ils furent néanmoins considérés comme faisant partie de l'Iran. Le souverain sassanide était donc de facto Šhahānšhah Ērān mais aussi Šhahānšhah Anērān, roi des « Iraniens » et des « non-Iraniens ». L'objectif des premiers souverains sassanides qui avaient succédé aux Parthes était de redonner à la Perse une structure, une culture et une religion nationales.

L'Iran n'a jamais changé de nom pour les Iraniens, qui l'ont toujours appelé Ērān

Ērān, à la différence du nom « Perse », ne fut pas repris dans l'Antiquité par les peuples étrangers pour désigner l'Iran. Les Perses furent nommés ainsi au-delà de leurs frontières grâce aux Grecs et aux Romains, qui adoptèrent ce nom en référence à la Perside, la région du Fars dans le sud-ouest de l'Iran, d'où étaient issus les Achéménides et les Sassanides.

La mosquée du Sheikh Lotfollah, à Ispahan.

© Jon Arnold Images/ hemis.fr Jon Arnold Images/ hemis.fr / hemis.fr / Jon Arnold Images/ hemis.fr
En réalité, l'Iran n'a jamais changé de nom pour les Iraniens, qui l'ont toujours appelé Ērān. Ce changement n'existe que pour les Occidentaux, qui l'avaient appelé depuis l'Antiquité « Perse », avec tout ce que le terme pouvait avoir de connotation exotique et de références folkloriques que le shah Reza Pahlavi souhaitait justement reléguer à l'arrière-plan. Afficher aux yeux du monde entier le nom Ērān imposait sa dynastie, persanophone (à l'inverse des Qadjar turcophones), comme l'héritière des Achéménides et des Sassanides.

En outre, choisir le nom « Iran » faisait partie du « plan communication » du Shah pour afficher son pays comme une nation moderne et ouverte au monde. Souhaitant également sur ce point distinguer sa dynastie de celle des Qadjar, souverains corrompus et soumis aux puissances étrangères comme la Russie et la Grande-Bretagne, le shah regarda alors du côté des puissances « qui se relevaient » et chercha plusieurs appuis pour engager son pays dans une voie indépendante. Cela le porta à se rapprocher autant de l'Allemagne nazie que de la Turquie d'Atatürk. Du reste, le rapprochement avec Berlin commença bien avant l'avènement d'Hitler, dès la fin de la Première Guerre mondiale.

Il reste vrai que ce changement de nom s'effectua après un rapprochement diplomatique avec l'Allemagne nazie. Néanmoins, on aurait tort d'y voir un quelconque rapprochement idéologique, car il n'y a aucun lien entre l'aryanité des Iraniens et celle des nazis. Comme le souligne le chercheur Frédéric Sallée, si l'Iran se rapproche de l'Allemagne, c'est plus par opportunisme que par souci idéologique.

On aura beau chercher, on ne trouvera donc nulle part un quelconque diktat de l'Allemagne auquel l'Iran aurait cédé.

(*) Ardavan Amir-Aslani est avocat et essayiste.

(1) Son dernier livre, De la Perse à l'Iran, 2 500 ans d'histoire, est paru aux éditions Archipel en mars 2018.

>>> Sinclair confirms Fox one of buyers of USD 1.5bn TV assets

Sinclair confirms Fox one of buyers of USD 1.5bn TV assets
09 MAY 2018
Sinclair Broadcast Group, Inc. [Nasdaq:SBGI] (the "Company" or "Sinclair") announced that Fox Broadcasting Company ("Fox"), is a purchaser, along with previously announced purchasers, Standard Media Group, LLC (an affiliate of Standard General L.P.), Meredith Corporation [NYSE:MDP] ("Meredith"), Howard Stirk and Cunningham Broadcasting Corporation, of certain television stations Tribune and Sinclair expect to sell as a condition to the consummation of Sinclair's acquisition of the stock of Tribune Media Company [NYSE:TRCO] ("Tribune") in an accretive transaction valued at USD 4.6bn after divestitures.

Fox announced in a separate statement that it is acquiring seven television stations for USD 910m.
Excluding those stations where Sinclair will continue to provide services after the dispositions, the divested stations are being sold for a combined USD 1.5bn of gross sales proceeds (USD 1.4bn in after-tax proceeds), plus another approximately USD 100m in retained working capital that will convert to cash over 90-120 days post close, representing a 9.7x multiple of the stations' 2-year average 2017/2018 cash flow, adjusted for market rate network programming costs. As previously announced, the sales are part of Sinclair's larger acquisition of Tribune, in order to obtain necessary governmental approval of the Tribune transaction and for other business purposes and are expected to close immediately prior to or immediately after the Tribune transaction. Sinclair anticipates closing to occur near the end of the second quarter/beginning of the third quarter of 2018, pending customary closing conditions, including approval by the Federal Communications Commission ("FCC") and antitrust clearance, as applicable.
"After a very robust divestiture process, with strong interest from many parties, we have achieved healthy multiples on the stations being divested," commented Chris Ripley, President and CEO of Sinclair. "While we continue to believe that we had a strong and supportable rationale for not having to divest stations, we are happy to announce this significant step forward in our plan to create a leading broadcast platform with local focus and national reach. We expect the combined company to continue to advance industry practices and technology, including the Next Generation Broadcast Platform, and to benefit from significant revenue and expense synergies."
Mr. Ripley continued: "After the divestitures, we are now acquiring USD 4.6bn of enterprise value, which includes USD 2.4bn for the core TV and entertainment business, USD 0.5bn for real estate held for sale and USD 1.7bn for Television Food Network (TVFN). We expect 2017/2018 average synergized net acquired cash flow of USD 390m to USD 410m on the TV and entertainment segment, reflecting a 5.9x multiple, significantly better than the under 7x multiple initially announced a year ago. By year end 2018, we expect adjusted total net leverage, after synergies and including the TVFN distributions, on a trailing eight quarter basis, to be approximately 4.4x and we expect to quickly delever from there over the next twelve months. Furthermore, the TVFN partnership financial performance has been extraordinary over the past year, and based on Discovery's recent 8K Filing valuing the Tribune stake at USD 2.1bn, the core TV and entertainment pro forma purchase multiple is further reduced from 5.9x to 4.9x.
Including the Tribune acquisition (after the related divestitures) and pro forma for expected synergies, Sinclair's 2017 and 2018 free cash flow is expected to be USD 1.550bn to USD 1.575bn, or USD 6.35 per sharea. The combined footprint that will reach 62% of U.S. TV households or 37.4% pursuant to the FCC national ownership cap."

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance
:

  • EXTR -26%, CSTE -18.7%, VSLR -12.5%, MB -12.3%, INOV -10.3%, OCUL -9.4%, KRO -9%, AAOI -8.9%, MNST -8.3%, CSPI -8.3%, CUTR -7.3%, MXL -6%, PLNT -5.3%, KGC -5.3%, PZZA -4.6%, EVC -4.5%, HPR -4.3%, HZNP -4.3%, BW -3.8%, CLSD -3.8%, CEVA -3.6%, WEN -3.5%, REI -3.3%, WB -3.3%, FLXN -2.9%, RGR -2.9%, CHUY -2.8%, ARNA -2.8%, ETSY -2.6%, OSTK -2.4%, VGR -2.3%, FOSL -2.2%, (after spiking higher in late trade following the early release of its earnings), PAA -2.2%, RDNT -2.2%, GNK -2.1%, SINA -2.1%, SPWR -2%, ARGX -2%, ING -1.9%, IDRA -1.9%, DVAX -1.5%, NPTN -1.5%, VERI -1.3%, CISN -1.2%, HCKT -1.1%, OPHT -1.1%, DIS -1%, MYL -1%, PTIE -1%

Other news:

  • VIRT -5.2% (commences 15 mln common stock offering by selling stockholders)
  • WMT -4.5% (confirms agreement to become the largest shareholder in Flipkart Group)
  • FHB -2.3% (prices secondary offering of 15.3 mln shares of common stock at $27.75 per share)
  • AXGN -2% (prices 3 mln (upsized from 2 mln) common stock offering at $41.00/share)
  • UAL -1.1% (reports April traffic; RPMs +5.1%, ASMs +6.1%, load factor -0.9 pts to 82.3%), .

Analyst comments:

  • AVGO -1.4% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Nomura)
  • CROX -1% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel)
  • LXP -0.6% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Stifel)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance
:

  • DCIX +46.3%, ALEX +20.7%, TRIP +19.6%, ZAGG +18.3%, CDEV +11.3%, AAXN +11.3%, TTOO +9.8%, PLUG +8.2%, ADT +7.9%, ICHR +7.8%, ODP +7.6%, VDSI +7.2%, DRYS +6.6%, OPK +6.5%, COTY +6.3%, PEN +6%, INSY +5.5%, MTCH +5.5%, PUMP +5.3%, DIOD +5.3%, SSTI +5.1%, GPOR +5%, NEWR +5%, TWLO +4.8%, AMBC +4.6%, SMI +4.5%, ESIO +4.2%, QDEL +3.8%, MXWL +3.3%, LC +3.2%, GDDY +3.1%, BUD +3.1%, SUPN +3%, OXY +2.9%, OSG +2.8%, EA +2.7%, LBTYA +2.6%, TM +2.2%, KRNT +2.1%, EPAM +2%, PRTY +2%, RGNX +1.9%, EPE +1.8%, GLOW +1.4%, DLPH +1.1%, .

M&A news:

  • LBTYA +2.6% (Liberty Global to divest operations in Germany, Hungary, Romania and the Czech Republic to Vodafone); VOD +1.3%
  • FOXA +2.2% (reaches agreement with Tribune Media Company and Sinclair Broadcast Group to acquire seven Sinclair Broadcast Group stations for $910 mln)

Other news:

  • HCC +5% (prices 8 mln common stock offering by existing stockholders)
  • PTN +5% (presents on its PL-8177 and PL-8331 melanocortin-1 receptor agonist programs)
  • CDNA +2.4% (CareDx discloses entry into License and Commercialization Agreement with Illumina)
  • EXPE +1% (following TRIP results)
  • PPL +0.7% (prices 55 mln shares of common stock at $27.00 per share)

Analyst comments:

  • IPI +2.5% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Stephens)
  • FLR +2.3% (upgraded to Buy from Underperform at BofA/Merrill)
  • CLF +1.3% (initiated with a Buy at Seaport Global Securities)
  • HII +1% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup)
  • AQUA +0.9% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel)
  • NTR +0.9% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James)

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers

Gapping up:

  • ALEX +20.7%, ZAGG +18.7%, TRIP +17.8%, AAXN +9.7%, DIOD +7.2%, MTCH +6.5%, OPK +6.2%, PEN +6%, CDEV +5.7%, PUMP +5.3%, ICHR +5.3%, SSTI +5.1%, HCC +5%, ESIO +5%, SMI +4.5%, TWLO +4.2%, QDEL +3.8%, DRYS +3.6%, MXWL +3.3%, GPOR +3.3%, LC +3.2%, KGC +3.2%, SUPN +3%, WIX +2.8%, LBTYA +2.7%, OXY +2.7%, EA +2.5%, CDNA +2.4%, NEWR +2.4%, EPR +2.3%, KRNT +2.1%, EPAM +2%, RGNX +1.9%, EPE +1.8%, GDDY +1.6%

Gapping down:

  • EXTR -24.3%, MB -12.1%, VSLR -11.3%, INOV -10.3%, AAOI -10%, OCUL -9.4%, KRO -9%, MNST -8.6%, CUTR -7.3%, VIRT -5.2%, PLNT -4.7%, EVC -4.5%, ARGX -4.5%, HPR -4.3%, BW -3.8%, SPWR -3.7%, WEN -3.5%, OSTK -3.4%, CCS -3%, FLXN -2.9%, PZZA -2.9%, CHUY -2.8%, ARNA -2.8%, CLVS -2.6%, FOSL -2.2%, CTXS -2.1%, GNK -2.1%, WB -2.1%, MXL -1.7%, FANG -1.7%, NPTN -1.5%, MAR -1.3%, VERI -1.3%, DVAX -1.2%, CISN -1.2%

FT : Alarming deficiencies’ in new European investment rules — German fund group

Alarming deficiencies’ in new European investment rules — German fund group

The association representing German asset managers has called for a two year delay to the introduction of new pan-European rules covering financial products sold to retail investors after identifying “alarming deficiencies” in the new regulations.

The German Investment Funds Association (BVI) said on Wednesday that the new rules, which are due to apply to mutual funds sold to retail investors in Germany by 2020, should be delayed until January 2022.

The new regulations are intended to help retail investors better understand and compare the key features, risks, rewards and costs of investment products sold by asset managers, banks and insurers.

Under the new rules, all providers of so-called Priips — packaged retail investment and insurance-based products — are required to outline a range of returns that an investment might deliver in different market conditions, instead of publishing historic performance data.

Critics, however, argue that this has led to misleadingly optimistic return projections based on the highly positive performance of financial markets in recent years being provided to retail investors.

Providers of structured products in Germany have already started to publish performance projections using the new Priips rules.

Thomas Richter, BVI chief executive, said “alarming deficiencies” has been revealed in the methodology for calculating future returns which had led to “obviously wrong and misleading figures being disclosed to investors”.

The BVI’s statement follows an announcement in January by the UK’s financial regulator that allowed investment managers to provide additional “explanatory materials ”.

The Financial Conduct Authority’s statement followed the publication of wildly misleading performance projections by some product providers that suggested savers could earn massive returns.

Annualised returns of more than 523bn per cent could be delivered for a three-times leveraged note linked to US natural gas prices under a favourable investment scenario, according to the key information document published on the website of ETF Securities, the London asset manager.

The FCA said that where an investment product provider was “concerned that performance scenarios are too optimistic, such that they may mislead investors, we are comfortable with them providing explanatory materials to put the calculation in context and to set out their concerns for investors to consider.”

The BVI also said on Wednesday that it was concerned that “false and misleading” information was also being provided to investors about the charges that fund managers expect to incur for buying and selling securities.

Asset managers have published zero or even negative estimates for expected transaction costs for thousands of funds sold across Europe, an outcome that has been criticised as both unrealistic and misleading.

Negative transaction costs — caused by favourable movements in a security’s price while trading orders are processed — also reduce the total cost of investing that is reported to savers.

Mr Richter said that claims by managers that they would incur negative transaction costs were “highly problematic” and would lead to a “general understatement of costs” paid by retail investors.

Debate over whether the new rules are fit for purpose is widely expected to continue. Regulators have so far shown little appetite for a rethink.

Steven Maijoor, chairman of the European Securities and Markets Authority, the regional regulator, said in March that “concrete evidence” was required to assess whether the methodology for calculating transaction costs was flawed.

“In the absence of such evidence, Esma maintains that the methodology is sound and that negative transaction costs should be extremely rare,” said Mr Maijoor.

ft : Greggs profit warning signals spread of UK retail woe

Greggs profit warning signals spread of UK retail woe
Slowdown extends as ‘no part of the high street appears to be immun

hares in Greggs fell by almost a fifth on Wednesday after the high street bakery chain warned on full-year profits and analysts pointed to a retail downturn even at the cheapest end of the high street.

The news came as pub operator JD Wetherspoon reported a recent slowdown in sales and data showed a record slump in British retail sales for April.

Greggs, which sells £2 breakfasts and sausage rolls for under £1, blamed “weak customer footfall in retail locations” for sagging demand for its food-on-the-go and warned that underlying profits for the full year would not be any higher than they were in 2017, when it notched up £81.3m of earnings on this measure. Analysts had expected a 2018 result of roughly £87m.

Roger Whiteside, chief executive, said: “Customers are spending more but there are just fewer of them out there.”

People visit Greggs when they are already out doing something else, he said, so cutting prices would not work as a strategy. “Reducing the price of a sausage roll isn’t going to bring them out.”

Trading conditions, he said, have been tougher. “Having seen 18 months of the year it can’t all be explained by weather, there’s something going on so we need to be more cautious for the year ahead.”

Its shares fell as much as 19% in early trading, before the decline eased to 14% down by mid-morning to settle at £10.87.

Wetherspoons, which is known for its deals that offer a meal and an alcoholic drink for less than £10, said that its like-for-like sales rose 3.5 per cent in the three months to late April. This was markedly lower than the 6 per cent increase reported in the previous quarter.

“No part of the high street appears to be immune from this downturn now,” said Darren Shirley, a retail analyst at Shore Capital. “Greggs is represented across the country, and from what they are saying there is a slowdown across the board.”

The UK’s retailers are undergoing a torrid time as a shift to online retailing and a downturn in consumer sentiment related to high property costs, wage growth that is only just inching ahead of inflation and economic uncertainty in the lead-up to Brexit.

Retail sales declined by a record 4.2 per cent in April compared with the same month last year, according to the British Retail Consortium. The figures were distorted by the timing of Easter this year, with shoppers doing much of their stocking up in March.

Meanwhile, the Recruitment and Employment Confederation has reported a “significant dip in the demand for retail staff”.

The downturn has already prompted a number of retailers and restaurant groups including Carpetright, House of Fraser, Prezzo, New Look and Jamie’s Italian to strike arrangements to escape leases and cut rent bills.

Also on Wednesday, property group St Modwen said is will dispose of more than a quarter of its shopping centre assets as it revamps its portfolio towards higher-growth areas such as the logistics hubs and warehouses that serve online shoppers.

The landlord is selling its 220,000 square foot Longbridge Shopping Park in Birmingham to Zurich Assurance for £54m. It has also exchanged contracts to sell its 118,000 square foot Wembley Central shopping centre to an undisclosed buyer.

Chief executive Mark Allan said the sales aimed to “increase our portfolio focus on assets with better structural growth characteristics” and “accelerate the delivery of our 7.5m squ ft near-term industrial [and] logistics development pipeline”.

Last month, European shopping centre landlord Hammerson abandoned a £3.4bn plan to merge with smaller rival Intu. The takeover would have brought together ownership of the UK’s biggest shopping centres, with the combined group owning Brent Cross in London, Birmingham’s Bullring and Manchester’s Trafford Centre. Some investors opposed the deal, however, because of pessimism over the prospects for retail landlords.

In announcing it was cancelling the Intu takeover, Hammerson acknowledged that the financial strength of retailers and tenants in the UK had “softened”