WSJ : Trump Auto Tariff Timetable Likely to Slip Amid Europe, Nafta Talks

The Trump administration is pushing back its timetable for completing a controversial investigation into whether to impose tariffs on auto imports, as officials try to negotiate agreements with some of the world’s largest car exporters.
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross told reporters in late July that he would complete his study and recommendations on the possible national security threat from automotive imports “probably sometime in the month of August.”
But in an interview Monday with The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Ross said it is now “not clear the report will be out at the end of the month.” He said the delay was “in view of the negotiations” ongoing with the European Commission, Mexico, and Canada.
Mr. Ross also suggested that it was taking longer than anticipated to sift through the reams of material submitted by auto makers in the U.S. and around the world opposed to the prospect of new tariffs pushing up the costs to consumers and disrupting global supply chains.
“We just received elaborate questionnaires from the car companies, with zillions of pages, and that won’t be ready in five minutes,” he said. “We’re running out of August.”


Mr. Ross declined to set a new timetable, noting that the law used to justify the report doesn’t require any findings until next year.
President Trump announced on May 23 that he was directing the Commerce Department to launch an investigation into whether auto imports could be deemed a threat to national security warranting across-the-board tariffs. The study was similar to one opened a year earlier into steel and aluminum that ultimately led to broad taxes on those imports earlier this year.
Officials had originally suggested the process for vehicle tariffs was on a fast track. In late July, Mr. Ross told reporters that “probably sometime in the month of August we’ll be willing to render a report” that would include the Commerce Department’s findings on the impact of imports on the domestic auto industry, as well as recommendations for possible policies to curb those imports.
On Monday Mr. Ross indicated that a renewed optimism the Trump administration could negotiate better trade deals with some of its biggest automotive trading partners had reduced the urgency of the project.

Mr. Ross said that one factor slowing the timetable for the report was the late-July promise President Trump made to European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker that he would hold off imposing any new tariffs on European auto maker after the two leaders launched a broader negotiation over cutting industrial tariffs and subsidies. Officials from the two sides held their first follow-up session in Washington Monday to begin to flesh out the framework for those talks.
“I believe he made the same tacit commitment” to Mexico and Canada, Mr. Ross said, referring to negotiations between the U.S. and its two neighbors to rewrite the North American Free Trade Agreement. U.S. and Mexican negotiators are meeting this week in hopes of reaching some kind of agreement by the end of the month.
Mr. Ross said the notion that the automotive report would be released in August “came before we were making progress with Nafta” and with Europe.
Asked when the report would be completed, Mr. Ross declined to give a new date, adding that the 1962 national security tariff law being used to justify the probe “gives us 270 days from when we started, which gets us into next year.” The legal deadline for a report is mid-February.
In contrast with the steel tariffs, which drew support from the domestic industry, Mr. Trump’s threat to impose across-the-board auto tariffs has drawn widespread opposition, including from the auto industry.
On Monday, a coalition of auto makers, parts suppliers, and other firms in the industry announced plans to fight any new auto tariffs, saying such policies would boost costs and “result in less capital for investments in innovation and less competition in promoting cutting-edge automotive technologies developed here at home,”
Many lawmakers in Mr. Trump’s Republican Party have also opposed the prospect, some introducing legislation aimed at curbing his ability to block imports in the name of national security.

WSJ : New Fiat Chrysler CEO’s Big Challenge: Fixing the European Business

TURIN, Italy— Fiat Chrysler Automobiles FCAU 3.49% NV’s new Chief Executive Mike Manley faces some unfinished business in Europe.
His predecessor, Sergio Marchionne, who died last month, saved Fiat and rescued Chrysler from bankruptcy by orchestrating their merger, gaining him a reputation as a turnaround specialist. But Mr. Marchionne left unresolved the future of FCA’s legacy business in Europe, including the Fiat, Alfa Romeo and Maserati brands.

Mr. Manley will have to address multiple challenges, including plant overcapacity and a bloated workforce in Europe, which accounts for 36% of FCA’s employees but one-tenth of its profits. Three-quarters of FCA’s sales in Europe are of Fiat-branded cars that have razor-thin profit margins. A successful relaunch of the sporty Alfa Romeo brand eluded Mr. Marchionne for more than a decade. Maserati provides a healthy profit margin, but the luxury marque’s volume is too small to significantly boost FCA’s overall financial results.
A Maserati A6 GCS/53 competes in a classic car rally in Austria. PHOTO: CHRISTIAN BRUNA/EPA/SHUTTERSTOCK
“FCA would need a merger to improve the profitability in Europe,” said Martino De Ambroggi, an analyst with Equita.
FCA declined to comment.
Europe has been challenging for FCA and its Detroit rivals. Smaller cars dominate the European market, partly because fuel is more expensive than in the U.S. City roads are often narrower and many countries slap higher taxes on sport-utility vehicles, which are a big source of profit for auto makers. High production costs and competition from Asian companies like Kia that specialize in small, fuel-efficient models also squeeze profits.

Sergio Marchionne and Mike Manley in Italy in 2011. PHOTO: GIUSEPPE ARESU/BLOOMBERG NEWS
General Motors Co. sold its European business last year after losing money in the region for two decades. FCA and Ford Motor Co. had long runs of annual losses in Europe; and although they now turn an operating profit there, margins remain well below what they make in North America.
Mr. Marchionne had for years openly courted GM as he sought a merger partner to help secure FCA’s future in an industry that requires billions in annual investments. Fiat Chrysler’s U.S.-based Jeep and Ram brands earlier elicited interest from other auto makers, but potential buyers were less eager to take on Fiat and Alfa Romeo. Earlier this year, FCA said the merger search was over and that it could survive on its own.
Italian AngstFiat Chrysler employee numbers are edgingup in the U.S. and falling in Italy.Fiat Chrysler employees in

FCA makes an operating profit of about €2,850 ($3,274) for every Jeep and Ram sold, but only €250 for every Fiat, according to an analysis of FCA’s public financial data by Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, head of the Center for Automotive Research at the University of Duisburg-Essen.
Presenting the company’s five-year plan in June, Mr. Marchionne spoke of many new models to be added across FCA’s lineup, but provided few specifics. Mr. Manley didn’t give further details on a recent conference call.
The former CEO had also invested time, effort and billions of euros trying to relaunch premium brand Alfa Romeo, but it has fallen short of sales targets in a market crowded with similar offerings from BMW , Mercedes-Benz, Audi and Lexus.
The Fiat Mirafiori auto plant in Turin, Italy, employs about 13,000 people, down from 60,000 in the early 1980s.PHOTO: MARCO BERTORELLO/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
Meanwhile, Mr. Marchionne’s death has revived fears among FCA workers about the company’s commitment to Europe—especially to Italy, Fiat’s historic home, where the company still has 60,000 employees. Mr. Marchionne already moved the company’s legal headquarters to the Netherlands and its tax residency to the U.K. But since he was born in Italy and had good relations with some Italian politicians, Italians still saw him as connected to the country. Mr. Manley is British.
At Turin’s sprawling Mirafiori factory, once one of Europe’s biggest car plants but now mostly idle, FCA prolonged the summer shutdown to almost four weeks from an original plan for just a two-week closure. Some union leaders took it as a sign.
The new Alfa Romeo Giulia on display at an auto show in China. PHOTO: ANDY WONG/ASSOCIATED PRESS
Mirafiori employs about 13,000 people, down from 60,000 in the early 1980s. The factory, which churned out 463,000 cars in 1997, will make only about 50,000 this year, according to unions.
“We are leaving for vacation not knowing what awaits us when we return,” said Nina Leone, 54 years old, who has been an assembly-line worker at Mirafiori for almost three decades and is a delegate for the FIOM union. “If I lose my job at my age it’s going to be very hard to find somebody who will hire me.”

(Needham) lululemon athletica: Introducing Patel’s Pricing Playbook: Raising Est

lululemon athletica: Introducing Patel’s Pricing Playbook: Raising Estimates on Strong 2Q Data
Needham: "We are introducing Patel's Pricing Playbook for lululemon. Using proprietary algorithms, we collected & analyzed data on ~2,000 products on LULU's website on a weekly basis over the past year. Given digital sales are 22% of total, we believe this data is an important indicator of inventory and margin health. Our big takeaway -- discounting for 2Q18 was well-controlled and better than 1Q18 across multiple women's and men's categories. We have increased confidence that LULU's strong 1Q performance carried through to 2Q, and accordingly raise our 2Q comp, GM, and EPS ests. We remain on the sidelines on the stock given its significant outperformance and premium multiple. In this report, we detail SKU counts (full-price and promotional), pricing data, and discounting trends for 12 of LULU's product categories (across women & men's, bottoms & tops)."

>>> TJX beats by $0.12, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS below consensus; raises FY1

TJX beats by $0.12, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS below consensus; raises FY19 EPS guidance, in-line
  • Reports Q2 (Jul) GAAP earnings of $1.17 per share, $0.12 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $1.05; revenues rose 11.6% year/year to $9.33 bln vs the $8.99 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus
    • Consolidated comparable store sales increased 6% over the comparable period last year ending August 5, 2017
    • For the second quarter of Fiscal 2019, the Co's consolidated pretax profit margin was 10.6%, a 0.1 percentage point decrease compared with the prior year's 10.7%
    • Gross profit margin for Q2 of FY19 was 28.9%, up 0.4 percentage points versus the prior year
    • This was primarily due to a favorable year-over-year comparison related to the co's inventory hedges
  • Co issues downside guidance for Q3, sees GAAP EPS of $1.18-1.20 vs. $1.23 S&P Capital IQ Consensus
    • This guidance assumes that foreign currency will negatively impact EPS growth by ~4% and that wage increases will negatively impact EPS growth by an additional 2%
    • This EPS outlook is based upon estimated consolidated comparable store sales growth of 2% to 3% and Marmaxx comparable store sales growth of 3% to 4%
  • Co issues raises guidance for FY19, sees GAAP EPS of $4.83-4.88 vs. $4.85 S&P Capital IQ Consensus, up from $4.75-4.83 prior guidance
    • This guidance assumes that wage increases will negatively impact EPS growth by 2%. This EPS outlook is now based upon estimated comparable store sales growth of 3% to 4% on both a consolidated basis and at Marma

>>> US Gapping down


Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance
:

  • JILL -10.7%, NDSN -7.7%, FANH -4.1%, LII -3.7% (updates financial impact from Iowa tornado; timing of business interruption insurance payments assumed to impact 2018 EPS and benefit 2019 EPS), KSS -2.1%, HMY -1.9%, BHP -0.8%

Other news:

  • APPN -3.1% (prices underwritten public offering of 2 mln shares of its Class A common stock at a price to the public of $35.15 per share)
  • CREE -3.1% (announces private offering of $500 mln aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2023)
  • HTZ -2.8% (CFO resigned to pursue other interests)
  • EKSO -2.3% (enters into Controlled Equity Offering Sales Agreement under which it may may issue and sell shares of its common stock from time to time having an aggregate offering price of up to $25 mln)
  • KSS -1.9% (after closing up 3% on the day ahead of earnings)
  • MELI -1.2% (commences $800 mln offering of Convertible Senior Notes due 2028)

Analyst comments:

  • LII -3.7% (initiated with a Underweight at Morgan Stanley)
  • BRX -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Mizuho)

>>> US Gapping up


Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance
:

  • TOL +7.7%, FN +6.7%, MDT +4.1%

Other news:

  • CRON +5.9% (announces 'its initial supply agreements for retail distribution, both government-operated and private, across Canada for the upcoming launch of the recreational market in October 2018)
  • TLRY +4.5% (signs agreement with the Ontario Cannabis Retail Corporation to supply the province of Ontario with an array of cannabis products in anticipation of the launch of the adult-use market on October 17)
  • NOK +1.5% (outlines licensing rate expectations for 5G mobile phones)
  • AZN +1.4% (Tagrisso approved in Japan for 1st-line treatment of EGFR-mutated non-small cell lung cancer)
  • CVSI +1% (after closing more than 35% lower following Citron report)
  • GTN +0.9% (confirms agreements to sell television stations in eight markets -- proposed divestitures will close concurrently with the closing of the Gray/Raycom transaction)

Analyst comments:

  • VTL +7.8% (initiated with Overweight rating and $18 tgt at Cantor Fitzgerald)
  • DISCA +2.1% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies)
  • SYMC +2% (upgraded to Positive from Neutral at Susquehanna)
  • FND +1.6% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies)
  • AVNS +1.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James)
  • EL +1.2% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at DA Davidson)
  • CDAY +0.8% (initiated with Buy at Guggenheim)
  • WDAY +0.5% (initiated with Buy at Guggenheim)

>>> US Early premarket gappers


Early premarket gappers

Gapping up:

  • FN +7.3%, TOL +6.5%, TLRY +6.4%, VTL +5.6%, MDT +3.9%, NOK +1.5%, LTM +1.3%, AZN +1.2%, CVSI +1%, GTN +0.9%, CDAY +0.8%, WDAY +0.5%

Gapping down:

  • JILL -8.6%, NDSN -7.7%, LII -6.8%, EKSO -5.7%, FANH -4.1%, CREE -3.1%, HTZ -3.1%, KSS -3%, KSS -2.7%, HMY -1.9%, SJM -1.7%, MELI -1.2%, APPN -0.9%, BHP -0.8%

>>> J.M. Smucker beats by $0.02, misses on revs; reaffirms FY19 EPS guidance, lo

J.M. Smucker beats by $0.02, misses on revs; reaffirms FY19 EPS guidance, lowers FY19 revs outlook following agreement to divest its U.S. baking business
  • Reports Q1 (Jul) earnings of $1.78 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.02 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $1.76; revenues rose 9.0% year/year to $1.91 bln vs the $1.95 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.
  • On a non-GAAP basis, adjusted gross profit increased $50.0 million, or 8 percent, with the primary difference from GAAP results being the exclusion of the $34.6 million unfavorable change in unallocated derivative gains and losses. After factoring in the increase in SD&A expenses, adjusted operating income increased $15.2 million, or 5 percent.
  • Co issues guidance for FY19, sees EPS of $8.40-8.65, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $8.39 S&P Capital IQ Consensus; sees FY19 revs of $8 bln (Prior $8.3 bln) vs. $8.08 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.
    • On July 9, 2018, the Company announced the signing of a definitive agreement to divest its U.S. baking business. Full-year projections for this business were included in the Company's previous fiscal 2019 guidance. The Company has now updated its full-year outlook to reflect the anticipated impact of the divestiture, based on an expected transaction close date of August 31, 2018. In addition, the net sales guidance also reflects lower than anticipated net sales in the first quarter.

>>> Kohl's beats by $0.12, beats on revs; raises FY19 EPS guidance (78.85)

Kohl's beats by $0.12, beats on revs; raises FY19 EPS guidance
  • Reports Q2 (Jul) earnings of $1.76 per share, $0.12 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $1.64; revenues rose 4.0% year/year to $4.57 bln vs the $4.27 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.
    • Shifted comparable sales increase 3.1%; fiscal comparable sales increase 4.3%
    • Gross margin increases 42 bps
  • Co issues in-line guidance for FY19, sees EPS of $5.15-5.55, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $5.39 S&P Capital IQ Consensus, above prior guidance of $5.05-5.50

NYT : DealBook Briefing: Tesla Supplier? Your Check May Be in the Mail

DealBook Briefing: Tesla Supplier? Your Check May Be in the Mail

esla’s suppliers worry about getting paid
The carmaker’s shares went on a roller-coaster ride yesterday. Pick your own reason — plenty make sense. Another hit looks likely today, after the WSJ reported a survey of auto parts suppliers in which 18 of 22 respondents rated Tesla a risk to their businesses.
More from Tim Higgins, Marc Vartabedian and Christina Rogers of the WSJ:
Separately, several suppliers in interviews said Tesla has tried to stretch out payments or asked for significant cash back. And in some cases, public records show, small suppliers over the past several months have claimed they failed to get paid for services supplied to Tesla.
No one spoke of wanting to cut ties to Tesla. Elon Musk responded that when his company hadn’t paid promptly, it was sometimes because the suppliers had sent the wrong parts. He added the following reassurance: “We are definitely not going bankrupt.”
More in Tesla news: Axios describes how SpaceX could help finance a Tesla take-private, a prospect its non-Musk investors dread.