>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance:
  • KIDS -14.5%, USNA -12.5%, LEVI -6.2%, NRIX -4.2%, PKE -3.5%
Other news:
  • VG -18.4% (discloses several events; including resolution to arbitration proceeding; BP seeking damages in excess of $1 bln)
  • MOS -13.6% (Q3 volumes)
  • SERV -7.5% (has entered into securities purchase agreements with certain institutional investors for the purchase and sale of 6,250,000 shares of common stock)
  • CLOV -3% (comments on 2026 Medicare Advantage star ratings and trajectory for increasing profitability into 2027)
  • TLRY -2.9% (files mixed securities shelf offering)
  • TTRX -2.1% (7 mln share offering by selling shareholders)
  • DCO -1% (enters into settlement term sheet with Williams Intl)
  • GPK -0.9% (CFO to step down)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance:
  • APLD +24.7%, ESTC +8.2% (upside Q2 guidance; also authorizes new $500 mln share repurchase program)
Other news:
  • ORBS +27% (stock offering by selling shareholders)
  • SWKH +20.8% (RWAY to acquire SWKH)
  • NVA +6.2% (secures land use for antimony refinery at Port MacKenzie as it targets the production of military-spec antimony in 2026/27)
  • AMCR +3.6% (names new CFO, reaffirms guidance)
  • ODV +3.2% (announces upsizing of previously announced bought deal offering)
  • CFND +3.1% (announces equity investment in Ripple)
  • DRS +2.4% (wins first place in DoD counter-UAS competition)
  • SOC +2.3% (updated its Development and Production Plan for the Santa Ynez Unit)
  • SMR +2.2% (FLR completes sale of SMR shares)
  • SAND +2.2% (RGLD announces approval by all required Securityholders for SAND and Horizon Copper acquisitions)
  • STLA +1.9% (reports Q3 shipments increased 13% yr/yr)
  • RWAY +1.7% (RWAY to acquire SWKH)
  • CVS +1.7% (talks about Medicare Advantage ratings)
  • RGLD +1.7% (RGLD announces approval by all required Securityholders for SAND and Horizon Copper acquisitions)
  • NOMD +1.4% (announces CEO transition)
  • FUN +1.3% (Executive Chairman and Lead Director to step down; Marilyn Spiegel named next Board Chair)
  • PLSE +1.3% (presentation of late-breaking data from the nPulse Cardiac Surgical System first-in-human feasibility study)
  • BFLY +1.2% (names new CFO)
  • FLR +1% (FLR completes sale of SMR shares)

>>> US Research Calls I

Research Calls I
  • Upgrades
    • Baidu (BIDU) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie, tgt $176
    • Beacon Financial (BBT) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette, tgt $33
    • Ciena (CIEN) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $140
    • Columbia Banking (COLB) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette, tgt $31
    • Core Natural Resources (CNR) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies, tgt $125
    • ESS Inc. (GWH) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Roth Capital; tgt $3.50
    • FormFactor (FORM) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B. Riley, tgt $47
    • Littelfuse (LFUS) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird, tgt $310
    • nCino (NCNO) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at William Blair
    • OceanFirst Financial (OCFC) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette, tgt $22
    • Synchrony Financial (SYF) upgraded to Buy from Hold at HSBC, tgt $81
    • TechnipFMC (FTI) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at BNP Paribas Exane, tgt $47
    • Walker & Dunlop (WD) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Citizens JMP, tgt $95
  • Downgrades
    • Align Technology (ALGN) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies, tgt $140
    • Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan
    • ArcelorMittal (MT) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman
    • Comerica (CMA) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette, tgt $93
    • Doximity (DOCS) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $62
    • Dyne Therapeutics (DYN) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer
    • HSBC Holdings (HSBC) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies
    • Keysight Technologies (KEYS) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $180
    • OR Royalties (OR) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James, tgt $41
    • Pliant Therapeutics (PLRX) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan
    • Saratoga Investment (SAR) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Janney
    • Tenaris (TS) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at BNP Paribas Exane
    • Tilray (TLRY) downgraded to Underperform from Sector Perform at ATB Capital Mkts
    • Trilogy Metals (TMQ) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital, tgt $5.50
    • Venture Global (VG) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Mizuho, tgt $12
  • Others
    • Abbott Laboratories (ABT) initiated with a Buy at Benchmark, tgt $145
    • Acuren (TIC) initiated with a Neutral at Robert W. Baird, tgt $15
    • Aptiv (APTV) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup, tgt $109
    • Ares Capital (ARCC) initiated with a Buy at Lucid Capital, tgt $22.50
    • Astronics (ATRO) initiated with a Buy at Craig Hallum; tgt $60
    • Cabaletta Bio (CABA) resumed with a Buy at Jefferies; tgt $14
    • Cidara Therapeutics (CDTX) initiated with an Overweight at JPMorgan, tgt $200
    • Corebridge Financial (CRBG) initiated with a Peer Perform at Wolfe Research
    • Five Star Bancorp (FSBC) initiated with a Buy at Janney
    • FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI) initiated with a Buy at JonesResearch, tgt $306
    • Golar LNG (GLNG) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup, tgt $51
    • Guardian Pharmacy Services (GRDN) initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer, tgt $30
    • Gyre Therapeutics (GYRE) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies, tgt $16
    • Heritage Commerce (HTBK) assumed with an Overweight at Piper Sandler, tgt $11
    • Karman Holdings (KRMN) initiated with a Buy at Truist, tgt $89
    • Mannkind (MNKD) initiated with an Outperform at Leerink Partners; tgt $9
    • Morgan Stanley Direct Lending (MSDL) initiated with a Buy at Lucid Capital, tgt $18.50
    • New Mountain Finance (NMFC) initiated with a Buy at Lucid Capital, tgt $10
    • Northwest Bancshares (NWBI) initiated with a Buy at Truist, tgt $15
    • Perspective Therapeutics (CATX) initiated with a Buy at BTIG Research, tgt $14
    • StandardAero (SARO) initiated with a Buy at Truist, tgt $35
    • TAT Technologies (TATT) initiated with a Buy at JonesResearch, tgt $50
    • Viking Holdings (VIK) initiated with an Underperform at Mizuho, tgt $54
    • Weatherford International (WFRD) initiated with an Outperform at BMO Capital, tgt $82
    • Zymeworks (ZYME) initiated with a Buy at B. Riley, tgt $30

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 10th of October 2025 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Admicom Raised to Buy at Nordea; PT 56 euros
* Baidu ADRs Raised to Outperform at Macquarie; PT $176
* DNB Bank Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 303 kroner
* Equinox Gold Raised to Outperform at CIBC; PT C$22
* First Quantum Minerals Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT C$42
* Glencore PT raised from 310 to 350 Gbp at Goldman
* Newmont Corp Raised to Outperform at CIBC; PT $112
* Norwegian Air Raised to Buy at Arctic Securities
* Sika Raised to Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn
* SpareBank 1 Sor-Norge Raised to Buy at SEB Equities
* Verbund Raised to Hold at Erste Group; PT 64.40 euros

>>> Down
* Apetit Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 14 euros (+)
* ArcelorMittal Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 30 euros
* ArcelorMittal ADRs Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $33
* Aviva Cut to Underperform at KBW; PT 650 pence
* Aixtron Cut to Hold at M.M. Warburg; PT 15.50 euros (+)
* Brenntag Cut to Sell at UBS; PT 45 euros
* Ceres Power Cut to Hold at Peel Hunt; PT 190 pence
* Ferrari Cut to Neutral at Banca Akros (ESN); PT 350 euros (+)
* Gerresheimer Cut to Sell at Bankhaus Metzler; PT 27 euros (+)
* Melia Hotels Cut to Neutral at Alantra Equities; PT 8.65 euros
* Nexans Cut to Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT 100 euros
* Norsk Hydro Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 70 kroner
* NRC Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 9.80 kroner
* Repsol Cut to Neutral at Alantra Equities; PT 16.65 euros
* Sika PT cut from 200 to 190 CHF at citigroup
* Technip Energies Cut to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 40 euros
* TechnipFMC Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $47
* Tenaris Cut to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 17 euros
* TotalEnergies Cut to Hold at DBS Bank; PT 54 euros
* Yara Cut to Neutral at SB1 Markets; PT 400 kroner

>>> Initiation
* ARM Holdings ADRs Rated New Buy at William O'Neil
* Dr Martens Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT 75 pence
* Evolution Rated New Sell at UBS; PT 600 kronor
* Golar LNG Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $51
* Inspiration Healthcare Rated New Buy at Cavendish; PT 82 pence (+)
* Keller Rated New Sector Perform at RBC; PT 1,540 pence
* Lottomatica Rated New Buy at UBS
* Safran Rated New Overweight at Oxcap; PT 350 euros
* Swisscom Resumed Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 525 Swiss francs
* Technip Energies ADRs Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $46.80
*Technip Energies ADRs Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $46.80
* Tenaris ADRs Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $39.80
* Vallourec ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $4.65
* Weatherford Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $82
* Xaar Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 160 pence

>>> Call
* ArcelorMittal Cut to Neutral at Goldman on Valuation (+)
* Aston Martin Falls After Jefferies Lowers PT on Subdued Outlook
* Brenntag End Markets Remain Weak, Downgraded to Sell at UBS (+)
* Gerresheimer Cut to Sell at Bankhaus Metzler on Low Visibility (+)
* Keller Rated New Sector Perform at RBC on Near-Term Uncertainty
* Safran New Overweight at Oxcap on Growth From Broad Portfolio
* Swisscom is Underweight at JPMorgan, Better Options Elsewhere

>>> What to look at today - 10th of October 2025

Asian equities declined amid concern that valuations in some technology companies have become stretched after their relentless surge this year. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.8% with chip shares dragging Japan lower. Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. fell after reports that brokerages have cut the stock’s margin financing ratio to zero citing higher valuations. A gauge of tech shares in Hong Kong is set for its worst week since the start of August. South Korean shares rose upon return from a week-long holiday with Samsung Electronics Co. jumping 6%. The dollar edged lower after a four-day rally took it to the strongest since the beginning of August. A Bloomberg gauge of the greenback is set for its best weekly gain since mid-November 2024. Gold traded just below the $4,000 mark while oil held the biggest decline in a week on cautious optimism about easing tensions in the Middle East. Global shares were set for a second decline in three weeks as investors take a pause following a robust rebound from April’s lows, when tariff announcements shook markets. The surge in AI-focused technology companies has fueled a debate over whether prices are running ahead of fundamentals. Even after a series of records to all-time highs, stock positioning data from JPMorgan Chase & Co. suggested some investors including hedge funds are holding back. The equity beta of monthly reporting macro hedge funds — an indicator of their exposure — remains modestly negative despite becoming slightly less so in recent months, the team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said. One of the main reasons the AI bubble talk is misplaced is that the leading spenders continue to enjoy increased earnings power, according to Daniel Skelly, head of Morgan Stanley’s Wealth Management Market Research & Strategy Team. Chip stocks in Asia, especially in Japan, had rallied earlier this month after companies such as Hitachi Ltd. and Fujitsu Ltd. formed alliances with OpenAI and Nvidia Corp. Chinese chip stocks are undergoing some profit-taking after the Golden Week holiday, said Kenny Ng, a strategist at China Everbright Securities International. “The margin financing adjustment also raised concerns about stretched valuations, adding pressure to the sector,” he said. In other corners of the market, Treasuries steadied after falling across the curve Thursday. The yen headed for its biggest weekly loss in a year even as Japan’s new ruling-party leader Sanae Takaichi, a pro-stimulus lawmaker, said she wasn’t in favor of an excessively weak currency. The Argentine peso rebounded after the US rushed to stabilize the country’s economy, offering $20 billion in financing and carrying out a rare intervention in currency markets after weeks of sharp declines. Investors are also focused on the recent strength of the dollar. The world’s primary reserve currency is around a two-month high, even as the US government shutdown drags on, and traders in Asia and Europe say hedge funds are adding options bets that the rebound versus most major peers will extend into year-end. US After Hours ESTC +9.1% on bullish guidance and buyback; APLD +14.2% higher on earnings; KIDS -14.3%, USNA -11.3%, LEVI -7.7% lower on earnings/guidance; BLS recalling staff to ready September CPI report, according to Bloomberg.

Nikkei -1.10% Hang Seng -1.14% CSI -1.25% Shanghai -0.51% Shenzen -1.11%

Eur$ CNH CNY JPY GBP CHF RUB TRY WTI$ Gold BTC ETH

S&P +0.12% Nasdaq +0.16% EuroStoxx +0.07% FTSE -0.23% Dax +0.04% SMI -0.04%

Macro :
- US Launches Financial Rescue of Argentina, Treasury Buys Pesos
- Jane Street Muscles Into Physical Gas Market in Trading Push
- Microsoft Forecasts Show Data Center Crunch Persisting Into 2026
- Speculative AI Stock Wagers Amplify Valuation Risks: Macro View
- SEC Offers Relief for IPOs Stuck in Limbo During Shutdown

Keep an eye on :
- ALV GY : Allianz, AIG, Others Prepare for Wave of First Brands Claims: FT
- AAPL US : Apple to Shift Health, Fitness Divisions to Services in Shake-Up
- ARM US : SoftBank in Talks for $5 Billion Margin Loan Backed by Arm Stock
- ATRLJB SS : Atrium Ljungberg 3Q Rental Income Beats Estimates
- AZN LN : AstraZeneca Lifts Virginia Plant Spend to $4.5b
- Bitso : Mexican Unicorn Bitso Expands Beyond Crypto With Stock Trading
- BPE IM : BPER Banca: SREP Requirement Revised After Acquisition
- BP/ LN : Venture Global Suffers Surprise Defeat in BP’s LNG Arbitration
- BYD 1211 HK : BYD confirms 2025 year-end production start at Hungarian plant
- CAP FP : WNS Acquisition by Capgemini Sanctioned by Royal Court of Jersey
- COFA FP : Allianz, AIG, Others Prepare for Wave of First Brands Claims: FT
- COLOB DC : Coloplast’s Rasmussen to Leave Board; Lego’s CEO to Enter
- DEMANT DC : Demant Chairman Niels Christiansen Won’t Stand For Re-election
- ESTC US : Elastic Shares Rally 10% After Announcing $500m Share Buyback
- EOAN GY : PSI Software Nears Takeover: Reuters
- FAST NA : Fastned Expands into Spain, Opening First Charging Stations
- F US : Ford Reverses Plan to Claim EV Tax Credits: Reuters
- GXI GY : Gerresheimer 3Q Adjusted Ebitda Margin Misses Estimates
- IDIA SW : Idorsia Raised CHF65.6M Through Placement of 16.4 Million Shares
- IG IM : Italgas to Proceed With Awarding Proccess for Divested Assets
- ISS DC : ISS Signs New Contract in Turkey With Annual Value of ~DKK100M
- JYSK DC : Jyske Raises FY Net Income Forecast; New Range Beats Estimates
- LEVI US : Levi Strauss 3Q Adjusted EPS Beats Estimates
- NRIX US : Nurix Therapeutics Slips After 3Q Loss per Share Disappoints
- PSAN GY : PSI Software Confirms Talks on Potential Takeover Offer
- RIO LN : Rio Tinto to Close Metal Powder Plant in Quebec in Coming Months
- SHEL LN : WA Regulator Okays Renewal of Shell’s Electricity Retail Licence
- SAX GY : Stroeer Shares Spike Briefly on Betaville ‘Uncooked Alert’
- SWK US : Runway Growth to Buy SWK for About $220m in Stock, Cash
- TCAP LN : TP ICAP Crypto Exchange to Add Stablecoin Pairs as Volume Jumps
- TRYG DC : Tryg 3Q Pretax Profit Beats Estimates (1)
- UMG NA : Universal Music Says Court Dismissed Drake’s Defamation Lawsuit
- VAR NO : Var Energi Prelim 3Q Avg Production Rises to 370,000 BOE/D
- WNS US : WNS Acquisition by Capgemini Sanctioned by Royal Court of Jersey

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 10th of October 2025

>>> Up
* Admicom Raised to Buy at Nordea; PT 56 euros
* Baidu ADRs Raised to Outperform at Macquarie; PT $176
* DNB Bank Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 303 kroner
* Equinox Gold Raised to Outperform at CIBC; PT C$22
* First Quantum Minerals Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT C$42
* Glencore PT raised from 310 to 350 Gbp at Goldman
* Newmont Corp Raised to Outperform at CIBC; PT $112
* Norwegian Air Raised to Buy at Arctic Securities
* Sika Raised to Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn
* SpareBank 1 Sor-Norge Raised to Buy at SEB Equities
* Verbund Raised to Hold at Erste Group; PT 64.40 euros

>>> Down
* ArcelorMittal Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 30 euros
* ArcelorMittal ADRs Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $33
* Aviva Cut to Underperform at KBW; PT 650 pence
* Brenntag Cut to Sell at UBS; PT 45 euros
* Ceres Power Cut to Hold at Peel Hunt; PT 190 pence
* Melia Hotels Cut to Neutral at Alantra Equities; PT 8.65 euros
* Nexans Cut to Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT 100 euros
* Norsk Hydro Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 70 kroner
* NRC Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 9.80 kroner
* Repsol Cut to Neutral at Alantra Equities; PT 16.65 euros
* Sika PT cut from 200 to 190 CHF at citigroup
* Technip Energies Cut to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 40 euros
* TechnipFMC Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $47
* Tenaris Cut to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 17 euros
* TotalEnergies Cut to Hold at DBS Bank; PT 54 euros
* Yara Cut to Neutral at SB1 Markets; PT 400 kroner

>>> Initiation
* ARM Holdings ADRs Rated New Buy at William O'Neil
* Dr Martens Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT 75 pence
* Evolution Rated New Sell at UBS; PT 600 kronor
* Golar LNG Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $51
* Keller Rated New Sector Perform at RBC; PT 1,540 pence
* Lottomatica Rated New Buy at UBS
* Safran Rated New Overweight at Oxcap; PT 350 euros
* Swisscom Resumed Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 525 Swiss francs
* Technip Energies ADRs Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $46.80
*Technip Energies ADRs Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $46.80
* Tenaris ADRs Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $39.80
* Vallourec ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $4.65
* Weatherford Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $82
* Xaar Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 160 pence

>>> Call
* Aston Martin Falls After Jefferies Lowers PT on Subdued Outlook
* Keller Rated New Sector Perform at RBC on Near-Term Uncertainty
* Safran New Overweight at Oxcap on Growth From Broad Portfolio
* Swisscom is Underweight at JPMorgan, Better Options Elsewhere

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Brenntag (BNR TH) -1.6%
MDAX:
  • Gerresheimer (GXI TH) +1.8%
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) -1%
SDAX:
  • Jenoptik (JEN TH) +1.5%
  • Evotec (EVT TH) -1.3%
  • Energiekontor (EKT TH) -16%
    • EQS-Adhoc: Energiekontor adjusts earnings forecast for 2025 financial year

The Kobeissi Letter : Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI alone have a


Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI alone have announced $800 BILLION in commitments for new data centers in 2025.

Meanwhile, electricity prices are up +35% since 2022.

With nuclear power 10+ years away, how will we meet electricity demand?


Data centers are the new oil:

Data center energy consumption has reached a record 5% of total US power demand.

By 2030, data center energy consumption will exceed 10% of total US power demand.

The AI revolution is even bigger than you think.


Data centers are the new oil:

Data center energy consumption has reached a record 5% of total US power demand.

By 2030, data center energy consumption will exceed 10% of total US power demand.

The AI revolution is even bigger than you think.