Bad numbersThe European Commission is poised to revise down growth forecasts for the euro area and wider EU
As EU leaders prepare to head to Sibiu for strategic planning on the bloc’s future, today’s economic forecasts from Brussels will underline some of the difficulties they face.
The European Commission is poised to revise down its growth forecasts for the euro area and wider EU, pointing to a slowdown in the manufacturing sector, not least in Germany.
Brussels will also warn that unpredictable trade tensions threaten even this less-than-rosy outlook.
While the commission has been planning to welcome the ongoing US-China trade talks as a boost for global economic stability, this was undermined by US president Donald Trump’s unexpected Sunday Twitter announcement of more punitive tariffs against Chinese imports.
Other risks to the forecast include the lack of clarity around Brexit. UK prime minister Theresa May’s deal is in limbo and Britain is due to leave on October 31, with or without an agreement.
The forecasts are also a political banana skin for Brussels. They are expected to show that Italy will miss a deficit target that it agreed with the commission as part of a deal last year on its 2019 budget plans.
That accord, which involved Rome’s populist government agreeing to delay some spending measures, has been slammed by the Dutch government as a stitch-up that undermines the euro area’s budget rules.
The news that Rome is set to exceed its intended deficit of 2.04 per cent of GDP will fuel criticisms that Italy was let off the hook. The EU forecasts will be broadly in line with the latest Italian government projections of a deficit of 2.4 per cent.
The Hague and other northern euro area seats of government are preparing a co-ordinated call for the commission to take a less political, and firmer, approach to applying the fiscal rules.
It could all be worse: Brussels will forecast continued economic growth in the EU during 2019-20, with no country expected to fall into recession. It will also point to strong employment numbers and rising wages.
But, with leaders set to reflect on the state of the EU, Brussels would have preferred a more upbeat, clearer and above all less controversial financial picture.
Mr Trump’s trade threats against China are hitting one of his favourite crops: soyabeans. The futures market was gloomy on Monday, with traders fearful of retaliatory measures against US produce.
An EU pledge to import more of the beans was a key part of a deal in July between the commission and Mr Trump to ease transatlantic trade tensions. Brussels announced last month that imports in the period July 2018 to mid-April 2019 were 121 per cent higher than during the previous 12 months.