Can Tesla stay a trillion dollar company on just two models?
BYD is competing directly with Elon Musk’s carmaker in the midsize electric SUV market
Even as BYD has overtaken Tesla in global sales, direct comparisons between their electric vehicles have remained relatively uncommon. Tesla was long regarded as the innovator, while BYD was often cast as the imitator. But now, such comparisons are becoming unavoidable.
Last year, more than 95 per cent of Tesla’s global deliveries came from the Model 3 and Model Y. These two models have driven the company’s growth for nearly a decade. Yet the market is changing. Demand growth is slowing, competitors are catching up and Tesla’s response has been to cut prices aggressively, in the hope that volume can offset margin.
The launch of the Model Y Standard, priced at $39,990 in the US, and €39,990 in Germany, is the clearest sign of that new strategy. The lower entry point for its most important model is a defensive move, with Tesla fighting to hold its ground against BYD in the same midsize electric SUV segment that once seemed unassailable for Elon Musk’s company.
BYD’s Sealion 7 is one of the most direct competitors to the Model Y on the market. In both performance and practicality, the Sealion 7 holds its own, offering up to 456km of range, 0 to 60mph in about 4.5 seconds and premium interiors with a minimalist aesthetic. The Model Y Standard offers a range of about 516km and accelerates from 0 to 60mph in 6.8 seconds, while also providing access to Tesla’s vast Supercharger network. Yet in export markets, the Sealion 7 is priced at a premium. Starting at about the equivalent of $60,000 in the UK, it is now at least 30 per cent more expensive than Tesla’s new entry level Model Y in mainland Europe.
That marks a striking reversal of roles. Tesla used to be the brand that needed to justify its premium as BYD climbed up market share rankings. Now BYD faces the same scrutiny. Its cost advantages, vertically integrated supply chain and lithium iron phosphate blade battery give BYD a powerful edge on materials. The cost of these batteries in China already fell to $52 per kilowatt-hour last year, according to S&P Global Mobility. Yet BYD must absorb higher shipping costs, regulatory adaptation and battery packaging complexity. As Tesla closes the cost gap, its pricing power is starting to tilt the market in its favour.
Following price cuts in 2023, Tesla’s deliveries rose 38 per cent year on year to 1.81mn in that year. Even accounting for the reputational challenges the brand has faced in recent years given Musk’s controversies, that experience suggests Tesla’s price cuts could add about 300,000 vehicles to annual demand across its line-up. Even if half of those gains came at BYD’s expense, Tesla would still benefit from higher volumes and improved factory efficiency, while BYD would face erosion in both market share and pricing power.
For BYD, which has thrived amid fierce price competition in China, the timing is precarious. Matching Tesla’s new pricing would put pressure on margins across its Sealion models, which became BYD’s second-best selling line-up last month. BYD’s vertical integration offers some cushion, but not enough to avoid a broader squeeze. Tesla’s greater global scale and extensive distribution network allow it to absorb those pressures more easily.
That may be good news for Tesla in the short term, but it raises deeper questions about the company’s valuation. Its market value of $1.4tn, more than 10 times that of BYD, has been built on the promise of extraordinary margins, which price cuts will inevitably compress. Tesla’s gross margin was around 17 per cent in the second quarter of this year, with automotive sales accounting for about three quarters of total revenue. That is significantly lower than the fourth quarter of 2021 when its automotive gross margins, excluding regulatory credits, were nearly 30 per cent.
True, Tesla’s value extends far beyond its EVs. It is also an AI company, energy provider and robotics innovator. Narratives over the potential growth of those prospects have helped fuel a stock trading at more than 200 times forward earnings. Those ambitions are real but, for now, the bulk of its cash still comes from selling two EV models. Both of those cars now face credible rivals that can match Tesla on performance and increasingly on design.
Tesla’s price cuts prove it can still set the tone for the EV industry. But they also reveal the limits of its current business model. The company that once made EVs a status symbol now must make them affordable to stay competitive. Its valuation will need to adapt to that new reality.