FT : Aviva: a Boris bet

Aviva: a Boris bet
It is up to the insurer’s chief executive to bring a clearer focus

Nobody is entirely sure what Aviva is for. Rival London-listed insurer Prudential is about Asian savings growth. Legal & General has a social purpose. Aviva is, er, really big and does, um, stuff.

It is the task of Maurice Tulloch to frame the purpose of this sprawling composite more compellingly. This newish chief executive is unlikely to respond with: “Aviva is a bet on Boris Johnson proving less incompetent that he appears.” But that was the characterisation suggested by half-year results.

Look at it this way. The UK generated more than half of Aviva’s operating profits before central costs. Europe accounted for another third. A chaotic Brexit would hurt sales of discretionary insurance and savings products and ensure interest rates stayed low. This is one reason Mr Tulloch is holding a lot of capital — he remembers that former chief executive Andrew Moss was kicked out in 2012 for having too little.

Aviva’s £24.4bn of regulatory capital is 194 per cent of the regulatory minimum. The group’s target range is 160-180 per cent. Mr Tulloch has no immediate plans to refund investors that surplus, worth up to £4bn. This is wise when the UK government is being run by B Team Tories.

If Mr Johnson disengages from the EU less messily than feared — food and medicine shortages are possible — there will be plenty of upside in Aviva shares. This is despite group profits flatter than the group’s Norfolk birthplace. The underperforming stock has a hefty 8 per cent yield.

A promise by Mr Tulloch to consider selling Asian businesses is another reason for contrarian optimism. Asian savings are growing like crazy, even with confidence weakening. Why sell? Why indeed, except that too many European banks and insurers are expanding there for all to prosper. A needy rival may pay over the odds for Aviva assets valued at $2bn-$4bn.

The motto “you zig, we’ll zag” lacks gravitas as a company motto. Call it a working title. Over to Mr Tulloch to devise something better.

>>> Metro investor says bid fails, it's up to management to prove Metro is worth

Metro investor says bid fails, it's up to management to prove Metro is worth more - Reuters News

08-Aug-2019 15:01:51

DUESSELDORF, Germany, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Czech businessman Daniel Kretinsky said on Thursday his 5.8 billion euro ($6.5 billion) bid for German wholesaler Metro B4B.DE would not succeed and added it was now up to management to show that the company is worth more.

Kretinsky's investment vehicle EP Global Commerce (EPGC) had already said on Monday that it would not raise its bid after failing to find common ground with Metro shareholders Meridian Stiftung and Beisheim Holding, which hold a nearly 21% stake. (Full Story)

Kretinsky told journalists that EPGC would not raise the 16-euro-per-ordinary-share bid and said all options were now open, adding that he was a long-term investor but he would have to see how the company developed in future.

He said he would wait to see what happens with Metro's plans to sell its struggling German hypermarket chain Real and find partners for its China business.

EPGC has criticised Metro's plans to sell Real, valued at about 1 billion euros, to a consortium led by real estate investor Redos because the price was too low.

EPGC bought into Metro when its shares had hit an all-time low last year after the company cut its outlook due to poor performance at its Russian operations.

Once a sprawling retail conglomerate, Metro has in recent years been restructuring to focus on its core cash-and-carry business, selling off the Kaufhof department stores and then splitting from consumer electronics group Ceconomy CECG.DE.

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance
:

  • GDOT -42.2%, ICUI -29.2%, RYAM -28%, TRXC -27%, ANGI -26.3%, CWH -26%, AGS -24.9%, WMGI -20.9%, DDD -15.3%, DVAX -14.4%, ZG -14.2%, IAG -13.2% (also announces initial drilling results testing the underground mining potential at its Saramacca Project, Suriname), PRTY -12.1%, FLO -9.2%, GRVY -8.6%, CAAS -8%, BREW -7.8%, RUN -7.7%, MNST -7.3%, GKOS -7%, TPIC -4.9%, LEE -4.9%, SWKS -4.5%, SRPT -3.9%, EBIX -3.9%, FOSL -3.8%, SENS -3.7%, QHC -3.4%, QRTEA -3.2%, RWLK -3.2%, COMM -3.1%, CTL -2.9%, TRIP -2.8%, IMMU -2.8%, EXK -2.7%, PAAS -2.5%, KHC -2.5%, ARNA -2.3%, TCRR -2%, CDE -1.9%, LBTYA -1.9%, UHAL -1.7%, EB -1.6%, SWCH -1.5%, GFI -1.5%, VRS -1.5%, NCLH -1.4%, SPH -1.3%, SUN -1.2%, VSTO -1.2%, ESPR -1.2%

M&A news:

  • GKOS -7% (to acquire Avedro [AVDR] in an all-stock transaction

Other news:

  • DVAX -14.4% (to offer an aggregate of up to $60.0 million of shares of its common stock)
  • CLVS -10.8% (to offer $225 million aggregate principal amount of its convertible senior notes due 2024 in a private placement to qualified institutional buyers )
  • MGTX -8.1% (prices underwritten public offering of 3.2 mln of its ordinary shares at a public offering price of $23.50 per share)
  • STML -8% (announces 5,000,000 shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering)
  • BL -3.2% (to offer $435 mln aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2024 in a private placement to qualified institutional buyers )
  • MLAB -3.2% (prices offering of 375K shares of common stock at $210.00 per share)
  • SAFE -2.5% (prices offering of 3 mln shares of common stock for $84 mln)
  • EYE -1.5% (prices underwritten secondary offering by KKR (KKR) of 9,149,908 shares of common stock at the public offering price of $31.00 per share)
  • KNSL -1.4% (prices offering of 645,000 shares of common stock at $93.00 per share)
  • WAB -0.9% (announced the pricing of 20,485,156 share offering at a public offering price of $72.50 by General Electric (GE) as the sole selling stockholder)
  • PTCT -0.9% (discloses entry into $125 mln at the market offering sales agreement)

Analyst comments:

  • CDXC -2.1% (receives positive opinion on Nicotinamide Riboside as a novel food ingredient from the EFSA)
  • MTCH -1.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS)
  • CAT -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance
:

  • CVRS +76%, PSV +66.7%, VSI +40.7%, CVNA +17.9%, ROKU +17.5% (also MSCI World Index addition news), STMP +16.9%, APYX +15.9%, TLND +15.5%, FSCT +13.9%, NTRA +13.5%, INFN +12.1%, UPLD +10.5%, GOGO +10.1%, NBEV +10.1%, JACK +9.6%, CPA +9.4%, DAR +9.2%, CRON +8.8%, RLGY +8.7%, G +8.6%, NUAN +8.6%, AVLR +8.1%, GTE +7.6%, KTB +7.1%, LYFT +7%, AAOI +6.6%, RGNX +6.1% (also reports additional "positive" interim Phase 1/2a trial update for RGX-314 for the treatment of Wet AMD), FSM +6%, ALB +5.8%, ORA +5.8%, AMC +5.8%, REPH +5.6%, BKNG +5.4%, PETQ +5.3%, CRBP +5.3%, CEVA +5.2%, DERM +5.1%, UPWK +5%, CAH +5%, ADMA +4.5%, MGA +4%, MUR +4%, AIG +3.8%, BW +3.8%, CLMT +3.8%, MRO +3.7%, TELL +3.6%, PRGO +3.5%, ENS +3.4%, NTES +3.3%, FOLD +3.2%, KDP +3.2%, SONO +3%, ELF +3%, ET +2.8%, FVRR +2.8%, NBRV +2.8%, RDUS +2.2%, AXSM +2.2%, OPK +2.1%, VERI +2.1%, AZPN +1.9%, TTGT +1.9%, PTE +1.8%, TW +1.8%, BAM +1.5%, EPAM +1.3%, MELI +1.1%, ZVO +1%, NICE +1%, .

M&A news:

  • CVRS +76% (to be acquired by Siemens Healthineers for $4.28 per share)
  • AVDR +29% (Avedro to be acquired by Glaukos in an all-stock transaction)
  • HUN +14.9% (divests chemical intermediates and surfactants businesses to Indorama Ventures for $2.1 bln)

Other news:

  • DBVT +16.8% (submits BLA to FDA for Viaskin Peanut for the treatment of peanut allergy)
  • SYMC +12.7% (on reports that the company is near a deal to sell its Enterprise business to Broadcom (AVGO) for ~$10 bln)
  • CLDR +3.7% (Carl C. Icahn increases active stake)
  • DISH +3.1% (Chairman disclosed the purchase of ~500K shares)
  • TWLO +0.9% (Director Jeffrey Immelt bought 8.5K shares)

Analyst comments:

  • HTZ +3.6% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays)
  • SHSP +3.5% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Stephens)
  • FL +1% (upgraded to Equal-Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley)
  • MDLZ +0.8% (upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley)
  • OHI +0.8% (upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James)

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers

Gapping up:

  • AVDR +29%, CVNA +17.9%, DBVT +17.3%, APYX +15.9%, TLND +15.5%, ROKU +14.4%, FSCT +13.9%, NTRA +13.5%, SYMC +12.3%, STMP +10.9%, INFN +10.1%, CPA +9.4%, JACK +9%, DAR +8.9%, NUAN +8.6%, DISH +7%, ORA +6.7%, G +6.6%, ALB +6.5%, DERM +5.8%, AVLR +5.6%, LYFT +5.4%, PETQ +5.3%, UPLD +5.1%, PRGO +4.6%, AAOI +4.5%, BKNG +4.3%, MRO +3.7%, HIMX +3.7%, AIG +3.6%, RGNX +3.6%, TELL +3.6%, ENS +3.4%, TWLO +3.3%, CLDR +3.3%, SONO +3%, ELF +3%, NTES +2.9%, UPWK +2.8%, FSM +2.8%, ET +2.6%, RDUS +2.2%, VERI +2.1%, TTGT +1.9%, MDLZ +1.6%, NICE +1.5%, OPK +1%, ZVO +1%, GOGO +1%

Gapping down:

  • GDOT -35.5%, TRXC -29.6%, ICUI -29.1%, ANGI -23.7%, WMGI -21.8%, RYAM -20.6%, AGS -19.1%, DVAX -16.1%, DVAX -16.1%, ZG -14.7%, CLVS -10.8%, CWH -10.7%, RUN -9.7%, FLO -9.2%, IAG -9.2%, DDD -9.1%, MGTX -8.1%, CAAS -8%, BREW -7.8%, GKOS -7%, GKOS -7%, COMM -7%, MNST -5.7%, CTL -5.7%, SWKS -5.5%, TPIC -4.9%, SRPT -4.8%, STML -4%, FOSL -4%, TRIP -3.7%, QHC -3.4%, BL -3.2%, IMMU -2.8%, ARNA -2.6%, IIPR -2.4%, CDXC -2.1%, GFI -2.1%, LBTYA -1.9%, UHAL -1.7%, WAB -1.5%, SWCH -1.5%, VRS -1.5%, RGLD -1%

LA Tribune : Se prémunir des OPA hostiles !

IDEE. Cette notion introduite dans la loi Pacte permet aux entreprises de se doter indirectement d'un nouvel argument pour résister aux éventuelles tentatives d'OPA hostiles. Par Isabelle Bufflier, SKEMA Business School et Aurore Haas, SKEMA Business School
La loi Pacte du 22 mai 2019 (plan d'action pour la croissance et la transformation des entreprises) introduit dans le droit français la notion de « raison d'être », autorisant toute société, civile comme commerciale, à l'inscrire désormais dans ses statuts. L'objectif affiché de cette mesure est de reconnaître et d'encourager la mise en valeur de l'utilité sociale et environnementale des firmes, et de sortir l'entreprise d'une logique uniquement économique voire financière, comme avait pu le souhaiter le rapport Notat-Sénard relatif à l'entreprise comme objet d'intérêt collectif, initiateur de la loi Pacte.

Dans cette lignée, certaines grandes entreprises françaises comme Veolia, Schneider Electric ou Danone se sont saisies du sujet, et ont notamment créé le « Cercle des entreprises à raison d'être » en mars dernier. Carrefour a ainsi proposé d'inscrire sa raison d'être dans les statuts de l'entreprise lors de son assemblée générale du 14 juin dernier. Cette démarche s'inscrit dans la stratégie de l'entreprise, et en particulier, de la mise en œuvre du plan Carrefour 2022.

Un outil stratégique
Début juin, la société d'assurance mutuelle MAIF a annoncé vouloir être la première « société à mission », autre nouveauté de la loi Pacte, en lien direct avec celle de raison d'être. Le groupe agroalimentaire Danone a de son côté déclaré souhaiter obtenir d'ici à 2030 la certification « BCorp », délivrée aux sociétés commerciales intégrant des exigences sociales et environnementales.

Longtemps ignorée des juristes, la raison d'être n'est pas à rattacher à la psychologie ou la philosophie. En fait, pour les stratèges de tous bords, ce soudain regain d'intérêt pour la raison d'être de l'entreprise a pu paraître surprenant. Pour n'importe quel étudiant d'école de commerce ou d'université ayant suivi un cursus en gestion, la raison d'être est en effet un concept incontournable de tous les cours de stratégie.

En stratégie, la mission de l'entreprise est en effet définie comme le but général de l'organisation. Elle se distingue de la vision stratégique, qui est l'état futur souhaité pour l'organisation, et des objectifs de l'entreprise, plus opérationnels et précis. La mission de l'entreprise a été reconnue comme un outil stratégique permettant de donner du sens à l'action des managers et d'atteindre la performance.

Depuis de longues années, les entreprises se sont ainsi livrées à des exercices de définition de leurs missions, et affichent ces dernières dans leurs rapports annuels et autres sites Internet. Certains chercheurs ont d'ailleurs pointé les risques d'écarts entre les missions affichées, et la réalité des entreprises. La loi Pacte remet ainsi au goût du jour une notion classique en management stratégique.

Une arme très simple d'utilisation
Au-delà de ses effets sur la réputation, intégrer la raison d'être aux statuts de l'entreprise peut être un moyen d'affirmer son ancrage dans la société et de donner un nouvel élan à l'engagement des salariés, parfois en berne. Elle peut être aussi à l'évidence un argument commercial de poids. De plus, des chercheurs ont également montré un lien entre la performance financière de l'entreprise et l'inclusion de certains objectifs dans sa mission, par exemple le respect des employés, se comporter de manière responsable dans les contextes où l'entreprise fait des affaires ou communiquer et mettre en avant ses valeurs.

Enfin, inclure la raison d'être dans les statuts des sociétés pourrait avoir un autre effet, plus inattendu : celui d'être un rempart contre les OPA hostiles. Au-delà des défenses préventives anti-OPA déjà connues, les sociétés cibles vont en effet désormais pouvoir en ajouter une nouvelle : l'inscription d'une raison d'être dans leurs statuts.

Pour lutter contre une vision court-termiste, la financiarisation accrue des sociétés et un intérêt social réduit à l'intérêt des actionnaires les plus activistes, les entreprises ont désormais à leur disposition une nouvelle arme d'une efficacité inégalée car très simple - une modification des statuts votée en assemblée générale extraordinaire - et d'une mise en œuvre relativement aisée. Il suffira ensuite que les dirigeants l'opposent aux éventuels initiateurs d'une offre publique en arguant d'une incompatibilité « existentielle » entre cet initiateur et la raison d'être statutairement adoptée, comme le suggère le professeur Antoine Gaudemet dans un article publié dans le « Bulletin Joly Sociétés » de janvier 2019.

Ainsi, la raison d'être ou le statut de société à mission peuvent permettre aux firmes d'atteindre simultanément plusieurs objectifs stratégiques parfois jugés contradictoires. Prenons par exemple le cas du groupe Danone. Une étude récente montre que Danone est un acteur de taille moyenne relativement aux grandes entreprises du secteur agroalimentaire.

L'entreprise a connu plusieurs repositionnements stratégiques, avec l'abandon progressif d'un certain nombre de segments de marché, comme les biscuits, par exemple, pour se recentrer sur les produits santé et bien-être, tels que l'eau minérale et le bio. Danone fait régulièrement l'objet de spéculations concernant la perspective d'une OPA. Par exemple, en 2018, une rumeur a couru sur une éventuelle acquisition par Kraft Heinz, l'un des leaders de l'agroalimentaire. D'autre part, Danone s'est engagée notamment depuis 2005 dans une politique active montrant son engagement sociétal, avec par exemple la création d'une coentreprise au Bangladesh pour rendre ses produits plus accessibles et lutter contre la malnutrition, sous l'impulsion d'Emmanuel Faber, alors responsable de l'Asie pour le groupe.

D'une pierre deux coups
Aujourd'hui PDG du groupe, Emmanuel Faber souligne l'importance de donner du sens à l'entreprise et de partager la création de valeur avec les différentes parties prenantes : collaborateurs, fournisseurs, collectivité. Dans ce contexte, l'intégration d'une raison d'être aux statuts de l'entreprise, ainsi que le statut de société à mission permettront à Danone de renforcer sa réputation en termes de responsabilité sociétale, tout en la protégeant d'éventuels prédateurs - une manière élégante de faire d'une pierre deux coups.

La loi Pacte permet ainsi l'alliance de deux objectifs : l'ancrage des entreprises dans la société, et la protection de leur indépendance. Le groupe Danone, en route vers la certification BCorp et la transformation récente de sa filière américaine en public benefit corporation, équivalent aux États-Unis de la nouvelle société à mission introduite par la loi Pacte, est un bon exemple du chemin à suivre. Les entreprises du « Cercle des entreprises à raison d'être » lui emboîtent d'ailleurs, semble-t-il, le pas.

À cet égard, une communication accrue des dirigeants sur la mise en place de ces nouveaux outils pourrait s'avérer stratégiquement efficiente. Ce dispositif s'ajoute à ceux de la loi Florange qui, depuis 2014, a donné aux dirigeants la possibilité de mettre en place des défenses anti-OPA « à chaud », pendant les offres, dès lors que l'intérêt social et le pouvoir des assemblées sont respectés.

FT : Greg Coffey fund makes big gains after bond bets pay off

Greg Coffey fund makes big gains after bond bets pay off
Falling yields boost performance of Australian star manager’s Kirkoswald Capital Partners

Greg Coffey, the Australian star hedge fund trader who was once nicknamed “the wizard from Oz”, has emerged as one of the biggest winners from this year’s rally in fixed income.

Mr Coffey, who made his name as an emerging markets manager at GLG Partners, has made a gain of around 18 per cent so far this year at Kirkoswald Capital Partners, the hedge fund he started last year, according to people familiar with the fund’s results.

The performance, which includes a gain of about 5 per cent during July, ranks among the top hedge fund returns in a strong 2019 for many managers.

Kirkoswald declined to comment.

The gains have been driven by Mr Coffey’s bets on falling yields, particularly in EMs, the people said. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond has tumbled from almost 2.7 per cent at the start of the year to 1.7 per cent as the US Federal Reserve has pivoted towards looser monetary policy.

In EMs, Brazilian 10-year yields, for example, have dropped from a high of 9.4 per cent in March this year to under 7.2 per cent, according to Reuters data.

Falling yields are fuelling a resurgence in performance for macro hedge funds that bet on moves in bonds and currency markets. Brevan Howard and Caxton Associates are among the big-name managers to have made money after correctly predicting the Fed and the European Central Bank would loosen their monetary policies.

Macro funds as a group have profited, gaining 1.67 per cent on average in July, according to data group HFR. They are now up 6.6 per cent for the year.

In November the Financial Times reported that Mr Coffey was planning to relocate his company to New York from London, citing concerns about London’s status as a global financial centre.

Mr Coffey ran about $7bn of funds at London-based GLG, where he made big gains from bullish positions in EMs. He earned an estimated $300m in 2007, although some positions later proved tough to sell, such as a stake in a Siberian mining company.

He moved to Louis Bacon’s Moore Capital but his performance hit a rough patch in 2011. The following year, at the age of 41, he announced his retirement, telling investors the demands of his job clashed with spending more time with his family.

Mr Coffey built a golf course on land he bought on the remote Scottish island of Jura, before returning to hedge fund management last year.

FT : Germany’s economy needs a fiscal boost

Germany’s economy needs a fiscal boost
Berlin must loosen the purse strings to avoid the economy tipping into recession

The German economy is stuck in a rut. The country’s large, export-dependent manufacturing sector is reeling from the collapse in global trade while problems within domestic industry compound the overall economic malaise. The services sector has held up, but the disconnect is not certain to last much longer — business cycle indicators already point to a mild recession. Benefits from further monetary easing will be constrained by unprofitable banks and vast savings. Fiscal space is abundant. It must finally be used.

The fall in manufacturing is global, driven by the US-China trade war and China’s maturing and less rapidly growing economy. But this external weakness compounds domestic difficulties in Germany. Disruption in the auto and chemicals industries last year meant the economy only narrowly avoided an outright recession. And while these problems have eased, weakness in industrial output has deepened in recent months.

The third quarter got off to a particularly bad start for manufacturing. July’s purchasing managers’ index collapsed to a seven-year low. The drop in export orders — the main driver of the decline — was the worst for a decade.

Continuing expansion in the service sector has so far provided some relief. Job creation and modest wage gains have helped support domestic demand while the construction sector has held up thanks to housing investment. But the rate of expansion in services is now slowing and business optimism in the sector recently dropped to its lowest in more than four years. Activity in the construction sector also dropped for the first time in nine months.

Manufacturing weakness is spilling over into the labour market. Hiring intentions in the private sector are at a six-year low and employers are starting to cut working hours to reduce wage costs. Announcements of forthcoming redundancies — BASF, Thyssenkrupp and Bayer, among others — alongside a stream of profit warnings from blue-chips, adds to the negative outlook.

Policy options are limited. Expected easing by the European Central Bank next month — taking interest rates deeper into negative territory and a possible resumption of the asset purchase programme — is unlikely to provide the needed stimulus for Germany. Looser monetary policy may help the export sector by keeping a lid on any appreciation of the euro, but it is a blunt tool to offset a manufacturing recession. Even lower borrowing rates may not be passed on due to weak profitability in the banking sector. There is also a reluctance to penalise tax savers with negative deposit rates. That German bond yields are now in negative territory across all maturities leaves banks with no obvious profitable alternatives for their excess liquidity.

Fiscal easing is the only viable option. At close to 60 per cent of gross domestic product public debt is significantly below others in the eurozone, while the budget surplus reached a peak last year. The headline surplus will shrink this year with slower growth but the cyclical fiscal stance must also be eased. Tax cuts and greater spending on public infrastructure are all long overdue.

Next week’s GDP release is expected to confirm the German economy was stagnant in the three months to June. This will be a poor performance compared with the 0.5 per cent expansion in Spain and 0.2 per cent in France. Projections from the European Commission see German growth at just 0.5 per cent this year, slower only than in Italy.

A call for Germany to loosen its purse strings is not new. But it is increasingly urgent. Avoiding a full-blown recession in the world’s fourth-largest economy would benefit far outside the eurozone.