FT : Opening Quote: Government throws £4bn sale of Cobham into doubt

Opening Quote: Government throws £4bn sale of Cobham into doubt
Your morning City briefing on companies in the news, job moves and what’s happening in the markets

The British government can be forgiven for having other things on its mind right now — and for not wanting to kick up a fuss unless it has to. But after shareholders overwhelmingly approved the sale of aerospace and defence group Cobham to US private equity group Advent earlier this week, the government has finally got around to weighing in on the deal.

Andrea Leadsom, the business secretary, has intervened on national security grounds, it was confirmed this Wednesday morning. The Competition and Markets Authority must now complete an investigation and report back by October 29 (one might think another pretty busy period for the government, coming as it does just two days before Boris Johnson’s “do-or-die” Brexit date). The government took similar action on Inmarsat’s sale to private equity earlier this year.

Earlier this week, a Cobham spokesperson suggested value for money was more important in UK Ministry of Defence procurement decisions than the nationality of the supplier. That may underestimate the sway (Lords and) Ladies can have over British corporate life. Lady Cobham, widow of the son of Cobham’s founder, has been pushing for Ms Leadsom to intervene for more than a month, convinced that it undervalues the recovery under way at the defence group and is against the national interest.

The deal may still go ahead. But this will not be a quick swoop for Advent.

>>> What to look at today - 18th of September 2019

Stocks in Asia traded mixed Wednesday as investors awaited the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, where it’s widely expected to cut interest rates again. Treasuries were steady after recent gains.
Shares slipped in Tokyo and Sydney, were little changed in Hong Kong and ticked higher in Seoul and Shanghai. U.S. and European futures edged lower. Ten-year Treasury yields held around 1.80% after retreating for a second session Tuesday, when the Fed acted to calm money markets. Oil stabilized on signs Saudi Arabia is quickly restoring production following the debilitating weekend attack.

Nikkei -0.18% Hang Seng -0.04% CSI +0.65% Shanghai +0.47%

S&P -0.16% EuroStoxx -0.09% Dax-0.12% SMI -0.17%


Macro :
- Saudi Arabia Partially Restores Output at Damaged Oil Plant

Keep an eye on :
- AGN NA : Aegon to Buy Shares for EU168m to Neutralize Interim Stock Div.
- ALARF FP : Adeunis Board Agrees to Sell Vokkero Business to Vogo
- AIR FP : Vietjet Orders 15 Airbus A321xlr: Reuters
- ATL IM : Atlantia CEO Giovanni Castellucci Resigns
- BLND LN : British Land 1Q Retail LFL Sales Up 1.1%, Above Benchmark
- BMW GY : BMW Should Buy Jaguar Land Rover, Bernstein Says
- DBK GY : European Central Bank Mulls New Probe of Deutsche Bank: SZ
- DKG GY : Deutsche Konsum REIT-AG to Offer Up to 1.5m Shrs
- DWNI GY : German Bafin Fines Deutsche Wohnen EU427,000 Over Late Reporting
- EOA GY : EON Said to Hire BNP to Sell $1.1 Billion Czech Retail Business
- ISAT LN : Inmarsat Transaction Gets Clearance From U.S. Justice Department
- JTWO LN : J2 Acquisition Extends Deadline for Warrantholders’ Consent
- KGF LN : Kingfisher First Half Sales Meet Estimates
- MB IM : Del Vecchio’s Delfin Holds 6.94% of Investment Bank Mediobanca
- NoKIA FH : Huawei Gear ‘Likely’ Needs to Be Removed, U.S. Official Says
- PSG SM : Telefonica to Acquire 50% of Prosegur Spain Alarm Business
- PRV LN : Porvair Says Performance is in Line With Expectations
- ROTH FP : Rothschild & Co First Half Advisory Revenue EU545 Mln
- SAF FP : Boeing, Safran Invest in Battery Maker in Bet on Electric Planes
- SSO NO : Scatec Solar Raises Growth Target to Capacity of 4.5 GW by 2021
- SYDB DC : Sydbank Chairman, Board Members Resign Over Disagreements
- SWEDA SS : Swedbank Forms Bullish V-Shaped Reversal, Holds 50% Fibonacci
- FP FP : Total CEO Fears Attacks in Saudi Arabia May Trigger Retaliation
- UBSG SW : UBS Faces Potential Lawsuit Over Swiss Folli Follie Bonds
- VK FP : Vallourec: Guinotte to Replace Crouzet as Mgmt Board Chairman

>>> After Hours Summary: FDX -9.5%, ADBE -3.4%, CHWY -2%, STLD

After Hours Summary: FDX -9.5%, ADBE -3.4%, CHWY -2%, STLD -1% following earnings/guidance, CDW +5% on S&P 500 addition news

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: CDW +5.2% (to join S&P 500), TLRD +1.3% (President/CEO and Director each disclosed the purchase of 15K), LTRPA +1.2% (ticking higher; President/CEO disclosed the purchase of ~15K shares of Series B Common Stock worth ~$160K), KDMN +0.8% (announced that the FDA has approved its generic Trientine Hydrochloride Capsules USP, 250 mg), AEO +0.8% (initiated with a Buy at DA Davidson), CACI +0.7% (added to Conviction Buy list at Goldman)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: FDX -9.3%, ADBE -3.4%, CHWY -1.9%, STLD -1.1%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: IOTS -8.7% (proposes private offering of convertible senior notes due 2024), PTCT -7.7% (commences public offering of $100 mln of shares of common stock and $250 mln convertible senior notes due 2026), TBIO -7.6% (announces commencement of $90 mln offering of common stock), CBAY -3.6% (announces departure of Chief Medical Officer Pol Boudes, ACAD -2.6% (proposes public offering of $250 mln of common stock), CTST -2.3% (extending move lower after announcing Health Canada suspended its license), UPS -2.3% (following FDX earnings/guidance), INVH -1.4% (announces secondary offering of 44 mln shares of common stock by certain selling stockholders affiliated with Blackstone), WLL -1.3% (extending today's 16% move lower), BE -0.9% (after closing more than 20% lower on cautious newsletter report)

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 18th of September 2

>>> Up
* Kemira Oyj Upgraded to Hold at HSBC; PT 12 Euros
* Kering Upgraded to Buy at UBS; PT Set to 550 Euros
* TLG Immobilien Upgraded to Buy at Bankhaus Lampe; PT 29 Euros

>>> Down
* BAM Downgraded to Hold at ABN Amro Bank; PT 2.85 Euros
* Elisa Oyj Downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 42 Euros
* Hexagon Downgraded to Hold at Handelsbanken; PT 525 Kronor
* Mediclinic Cut to Reduce at HSBC; Price Target 3.10 Pounds
* Kinnevik Downgraded to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 274 Kronor
* Richemont Downgraded to Sell at UBS
* Telefonica Downgraded to Hold at Renta 4; PT 7.20 Euros
* Weir Downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 15 Pounds

>>> Initiation
* Aroundtown Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT 8 Euros
* Direct Line Rated New Buy at Panmure Gordon; PT 3.30 Pounds
* J. Martins Rated New Underperform at Bernstein; PT 12.50 Euros
* K+S Rated New Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 13.70 Euros
* Kuehne + Nagel Downgraded to Neutral at MainFirst; PT 150 Francs
* OCI Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 25.50 Euros
* Swatch Rated New Sell at UBS; PT 217 Francs
* Yara Rated New Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 442 Kroner

>>> Call
* Swatch and Richemont Rated Sell, Kering Buy at UBS on China
* Hexagon Is Cut at Handelsbanken on Trade Tension Uncertainty
* OCI Top Pick in Fertilizers, K+S Underweight: Morgan Stanley

>>> US Close Dow +0.13% S&P +0.26% Nasdaq +0.30% Russell -0.40%

Closing Stock Market Summary

The large-cap indices closed higher on Tuesday as investors looked ahead to the Fed's policy decision tomorrow. The S&P 500 (+0.3%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.1%), and Nasdaq Composite (+0.4%) posted small gains, while the Russell 2000 (-0.4%) underperformed amid relative weakness in the energy space. 

Overall price action was muted for most of the day, but the moves within the market were much more noticeable. For instance, after spiking nearly 15% yesterday, WTI crude ($59.37/bbl, -3.15) pulled back 5.0% after Saudi Arabia said it intends on restoring full oil production by the end of September. In addition, the repo rate spiked as high as 10% today on no specific catalyst. 

Regarding the repo rate volatility, DoubleLine Capital founder Jeffrey Gundlach said this makes it more likely the Fed will start with asset purchases again (i.e. "QE Lite") "pretty soon." Presumably, this view, which was reported by Reuters late in the session, contributed to increased buying interest into the close.

Nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished higher, led by the real estate (+1.4%), utilities (+0.9%), and materials (+0.7%) sectors. The energy (-1.5%) and industrials (-0.04%) sectors were the lone sectors to finish in negative territory. 

Other laggards included Nordstrom (JWN 32.10, -3.47, -9.8%), Corning (GLW 28.23, -1.82, -6.1%), and Kraft Heinz (KHC 28.36, -1.26, -4.2%).

Nordstrom fell alongside the retail stocks as a part of a broader effort to take monthly profits from the group. Corning cut its third-quarter sales outlook for its Display Technologies and Optical Communications segments. Kraft Heinz underperformed after 3G Capital sold 9.3% of its stake in the company.

Back to the Fed, the market expects the central bank to cut the fed funds rate by 25 basis points, which would strengthen the market's improving outlook on the U.S. economy. On a related note, industrial production rebounded 0.6% m/m in August (Briefing.com consensus +0.1%) after an unexpected decline in July. 

Separately, the New York Fed announced a repurchase operation of up to $75 billion worth of assets in order to regain control of its fed funds rate. The midpoint of transactions in the overnight money markets hit the upper limit of the 2.00-2.25% target range. 

The 2-yr yield and the 10-yr yield declined three basis points each to 1.73% and 1.81%, respectively. The U.S. Dollar Index lost 0.4% to 98.22. 

Reviewing Tuesday's economic data, which included Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for August and the NAHB Housing Market Index for September.

  • Industrial production increased 0.6% m/m in August (B consensus +0.1%), which was much stronger than expected and followed an upwardly revised 0.1% decline (from -0.2%) in July. Total capacity utilization ran at 77.9% (consensus 77.5%), up from 77.5% in the prior month.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that all of the major market groups recorded gains in August, which is a reassuring development in terms of the economic growth outlook.
  • The NAHB Housing Market Index for September increased to 68 (consensus 66) from 67 in August (revised from 66).

Looking ahead, investors will receive the Fed's policy decision, which will include economic and interest rate path projections, Housing Starts and Building Permits for August, and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index on Wednesday.

  • Nasdaq Composite +23.4% YTD
  • S&P 500 +19.9% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +17.0% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +16.2% YTD

WWD : Barneys Searches for the Magic Number

Barneys Searches for the Magic Number
The valuation of Barneys New York will start to come into focus as the company's tour through bankruptcy continues.

Barneys New York is working its way through bankruptcy, and chief executive officer Daniella Vitale is racing to find a buyer, but the key question in both cases is: How much is Barneys worth?

So far, the answer has been elusive as the company was unable to find a buyer before filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection last month.

Now the court will help find that magic number by an Oct. 24 deadline. And, if it can’t find a buyer, the company faces liquidation, where its assets would be sold to pay back lenders.

A baseline for a valuation is starting to come into focus, though. Under an incentive plan proposed this month by Barneys, its top executives Vitale and Sandro Risi, chief financial officer, would split a roughly $1 million bonus if they cut a deal that gives the retailer an enterprise value higher than its debtor-in-position facility and administrative and priority claims.

While Barneys’ chief restructuring officer Mohsin Meghji has referred in court documents to a “floor value” of $200 million, the company’s DIP loan is $217 million, so the figure appears to be approximate, but somewhere in the ballpark.

The actual floor value and targets aren’t set yet. U.S. bankruptcy judge Cecelia Morris will consider the incentive proposal during a hearing scheduled for Wednesday in Poughkeepsie, N.Y. So far, the U.S. Trustee has objected to the proposal, arguing that the retailer hasn’t shown enough evidence that the incentives to the executives would really help the luxury retailer garner the best price.

But the ultimate floor value set on the company should help illustrate just how tough the last decade or so has been for Barneys, which Jones Apparel Group sold to Istithmar World for $942.3 million in 2007 only to see Richard Perry’s Perry Capital take control just a few years later in a debt-for-equity swap.

Perry — whose wife is designer Lisa Perry — was seen as having an affinity for the business, and he supported it for a long time. But ultimately the economics after a big hike to the company’s rent, particularly at the Barneys Madison Avenue flagship, were the final straw. That led to a whirlwind — a rush to sell the business, to bring in consultants to help and finally, to file for bankruptcy. The resulting flurry of court filings over the past month sketch out what that scramble to save Barneys entailed, and when the pressure ultimately became too much to bear.

Barneys’ slide into bankruptcy was characterized by declining sales and rent payments that rose by $12 million, and also added $6 million in credit support obligations.

The company, which logged revenues of $800 million last year — about 30 percent of that online — saw sales slow in 2019 and it struggled to reverse the trend. For the February-to-June period, sales fell by $34 million compared with a year earlier, according to court filings.

Recognizing the rapid decline, Barneys took some drastic steps to try to address it.

Meghji wrote in a declaration filed in the case that the retailer marked down merchandise by about $70 million, but this markdown rate of 76 percent generated just $6 million in incremental sales for an increase of just 2 percent from a year earlier.

And it didn’t help that many of Barneys’ doors were losing money.

The 15 stores that the retailer is closing as part of the bankruptcy have “historically” run losses, and together accounted for roughly $14.2 million in losses for fiscal year 2018, according to court documents. That accounts for nearly all of the retailer’s losses from “stores with negative contribution margin,” Meghji wrote.

Those broader trends — tough sales, money-losing stores — collided with sky-high rents that ultimately left Barneys with debts that were too much to manage.

Nor was it a new problem for the company.

As far back as in 2012, the now-shuttered Perry Capital entered into a deal with the retailer that helped slash its $590 million in debt to about $50 million and ultimately transferred control of the company to Perry.

Still, the retailer had to keep borrowing to operate.

In April of this year, Barneys secured a $50 million term loan facility with Wells Fargo and TPG Specialty Lending Inc. But that wasn’t enough to sustain it through the summer, when vendors began holding back on shipping merchandise and insisting on cash on delivery, according to court documents.

The crunch had Barneys bringing in outside help. The company had already engaged Kirkland in January, and has paid it more than $2.8 million in advance payment retainer costs, according to a court filing.

Meanwhile, Barneys’ secured debt grew to roughly $192 million, and it had trouble locking down a potential buyer over the summer, which stacked some tough odds against it when it filed for bankruptcy protection on Aug. 6.

At the time, the retailer found itself caught between its drive to pursue a sale to stay in business and the expectations of secured pre-petition lenders, whose goals generally are to get repaid in full, even if that may mean pushing for liquidation. TPG had issued a proposal that involved a $10 million advance through a term loan, but which would have required Barneys to conduct a “going-out-of-business” sale on most of its physical stores soon after filing for bankruptcy, according to Meghji’s declaration.

Lenders tend to be wary of a going-concern sale process because it’s not a given that it will provide enough liquidity to cover the administrative expenses of the company, especially during a bankruptcy, said experts. And without a buyer lined up, or a so-called stalking-horse agreement in the bankruptcy context, it can be harder for lenders to support a sale process since they can’t gauge what the sale price or the terms of the sale might be.

“There can be a tension between what’s in the best interests of the estate, between a liquidation versus a going-concern sale,” said Regina Kelbon, who heads Blank Rome LLP’s national bankruptcy practice.

“And often you don’t know what is in the best interests of the estate when you don’t have a purchaser lined up before the bankruptcy,” she said. “If you have a purchaser lined up pre-petition, the lenders can evaluate the bid.”

It was against those challenges that Barneys found DIP lenders willing to take out its pre-petition lenders and provide a runway — albeit a short one — to pursue a sale through the bankruptcy proceedings.

Even against the backdrop of whether a buyer will be found, Barneys is looking beyond the turmoil and planning for the holidays, spring and beyond. For vendors, of course, the choice to ship goods remains tricky, even with the increased $40 million consignment facility that Barneys secured this month as part of its improved DIP financing package. For one, factoring firm Hilldun is not approving shipping to Barneys at this time, according to Hilldun ceo Gary Wassner.

This window of uncertainty requires a delicate balancing act between Barneys and vendors. Luxury retailers rely on a continuing supply of goods, but maintaining relationships with vendors during a financial crisis is always a challenge, and vendors planning out their future business with Barneys face tough choices.

“It’s a difficult decision [for vendors] but it is a decision that everyone has to make,” said Wassner. “Everybody is hoping that [Barneys] is an ongoing concern, and that there’s an opportunity to rebuild the business with Barneys in a healthier way.”

Wassner has a role on the unsecured creditors’ committee in the Barneys bankruptcy, but he spoke as the ceo of Hilldun, and not on behalf of the committee.

The retailer is working directly with a number of brands, as it usually has, and those brands continue to ship to Barneys and process orders for the holiday season as well as spring and resort 2020, according to a representative for the retailer. Brands are also still hosting events at the store. The specifics on just how many brands are still working with the retailer could not be learned.

The $40 million consignment facility, which Barneys’ DIP lenders agreed to increase from $30 million after pressure from the unsecured creditors committee, is a pool that vendors can rely on beyond the retailer’s working capital, attorneys for Barneys have said in court. As of early September, Barneys had already used at least $14.1 million under the consignment facility, according to recent court filings.

In this context, a consignment facility refers to a fund created by the DIP lenders to pay vendors for goods they’re selling, and not the traditional sense of a consignment arrangement between vendors and retailers, where vendors retain ownership of the goods they ship.

This consignment facility may provide some security for vendors, but Barneys also has strains on its working capital, including ongoing lease payments on its open flagships. Under the bankruptcy code, a company in Chapter 11 has to keep up with such administrative expenses, or, again, risk liquidation.

And the clock continues to tick. Under deadlines negotiated as part of Barneys’ financing package with DIP lenders, including Brigade Capital Management LP, the retailer has until Oct. 24 to find a buyer. Though the company bought itself some extra time with the Brigade financing — its previous DIP proposal involving other lenders had given it only until late September — it is still a short window for potential buyers to evaluate an investment.

The big question surrounding Barneys for months has been just who would buy the company.

Brand expert Authentic Brands Group has been said to be courting the company, eyeing new ways to use its intellectual property. And sources said Ares Management, a principal owner of the Neiman Marcus Group, took a preliminary interest in the retailer but is now on the sidelines, although it could reevaluate as the company’s October deadline approaches.

Even with a sale, the scope of Barneys’ future operations would depend on any new investors’ plans and resources for the business. New buyers could, for instance, choose to close more of the seven remaining Barneys stores, preserving only what they perceive as its most essential flagships.

“They’re in a situation where Barneys is sort of in limbo,” said Ray Wimer, assistant professor of retail practice at Syracuse University.

Barneys’ stakeholders are keen to see the retailer return to at least some of its former glory, taking the view that there is value for the right buyer who wants to maintain Barneys with a strong presence as a brick-and-mortar and digital business.

The unsecured creditors committee, in a recent court filing, said its goal “quite simply is to have Barneys survive as a going-concern retailer that is well-capitalized and with the maximum possible physical footprint.”

The existential reckoning of the luxe department store, a symbolic institution that for the better part of a century has served Manhattan’s elite, has been playing out in Poughkeepsie, N.Y. Morris, who is overseeing the case, sits in a courthouse a little over half a mile along Main Street from the Hudson River, a grayscale stretch of nursing homes, empty-looking storefronts and desolate pizza joints.

On Wednesday, lawyers and consultants from all the interested parties will make their way back to Dutchess County and Morris’ courtroom. The judge will consider the retailer’s proposed sale maximization incentive plan that would reward Vitale and Risi if they successfully steer the retailer toward a sale on favorable terms.

Barneys’ board has approved the proposed incentive plan, but Vitale, a director, wasn’t involved in that decision, according to a court filing. Vitale and Risi have foregone other incentives and the only compensation they are receiving is their base salary.

“Running the marketing and sale process, including interfacing with potential bidders, will require this senior leadership team to go well beyond their normal responsibilities,” Barneys wrote in the filing.

Barneys is proposing the incentive plan in part to “ensure these key individuals are properly focused to meet these significant challenges, particularly in light of the uncertainties for management inherent in these Chapter 11 cases and the implications of consummating a change of control,” according to the filing.

On Friday, the U.S. Trustee objected, arguing that the retailer hasn’t shown enough evidence that the incentives to the executives would really help the luxury retailer garner its best sale price. The trustee generally plays a sort of watchdog role in these cases, often arguing about preserving the integrity of the bankruptcy process.

“The performance targets set forth in the incentive plan are in large part duplicative of the work performed by the investment banker engaged by the debtors in this case and already part of the insiders’ fiduciary duties to the estate,” the trustee wrote in a filing Friday.

But just how well the sale process is conducted could be the difference between liquidation and a new lease on life for Barneys.

>>> Israel news organizations release election exit polls; election appears too

Israel news organizations release election exit polls; election appears too close to call
- Channel 11 exit poll: Netanyahu's Likud Party and rivals tied
- Channel 12 exit poll: Netanyahu's Likud trails
- Channel 13 exit poll: Netanyahu's Likud trails; rivals ahead with 58 of 120 seats
- Kan Exit poll: 56 seats for pro-Netanyahu right, 54 for pro-Gantz center left, 10 for Lieberman party
- Reshet TV exit poll: election too close to call