WSJ : WeWork Still Needs Cash After Officially Pulling IPO

WeWork Still Needs Cash After Officially Pulling IPO
We’s new co-CEOs ‘anticipate difficult decisions ahead’ as analyst warns company could be out of money by early 2020

For years, WeWork’s parent company was defined by big spending as it relentlessly pursued rapid growth.

Now, in the aftermath of a botched initial public offering attempt and the ouster of co-founder and chief executive Adam Neumann, it is facing a different reality: It needs to stop bleeding cash.

On Monday, We Co. said it would file a request to withdraw its initial public offering filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company said it is postponing its IPO to focus on its core business and that it has “every intention to operate WeWork as a public company” but didn’t provide a time frame.

To cut costs, the new co-CEOs, Sebastian Gunningham and Artie Minson, are planning thousands of job cuts, putting extraneous businesses up for sale and purging some luxuries from the previous CEO, like the G650ER jet the company purchased for more than $60 million last year, people familiar with the matter have said.

We Co. had $2.5 billion of cash as of June 30. At its current rate of cash burn—about $700 million a quarter—it would run out of money some time after the first quarter of 2020, according to Chris Lane, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. He and his colleagues projected in a recent note to clients that We would burn through nearly $10 billion in cash between 2019 and 2022, assuming it keeps growing.

Messrs. Gunningham and Minson said in a joint email to staff last week that they “anticipate difficult decisions ahead.”

“As we look toward a future IPO, we will closely review all aspects of our company with the intention of strengthening our core business and improving our management and operations,” they wrote.

Further adding pressure are agreements We made in a bond offering last year, for which it must keep at least $500 million of cash, according to S&P Global Ratings, which downgraded the company’s bonds last week.

The company, which provides shared workspaces, had expected a huge infusion of cash in a public offering. But skepticism from prospective public market investors helped lead to the IPO being delayed and the subsequent replacement of Mr. Neumann with two of his former deputies, and now investors don’t foresee an IPO until next year. The company is in early talks to raise money from private investors, people familiar with those discussions have said.

The sudden desire to deploy cuts contrasts with the picture long painted by Mr. Neumann and other executives including Mr. Minson, who stressed that the company had plenty of cash and that losses were nothing to worry about.

For years, the internal mantra was that WeWork’s large losses were the result of its rapid growth. Because so much of the money was going to new locations, if We stopped growing, it could be profitable, Mr. Neumann would tell staff.

But the scale of its losses, even for a fast-growing co-working company, has perplexed rivals and others in the real estate space. Taken with the cuts, analysts say, it suggests problems extend beyond Mr. Neumann to the underlying health and strategy of the business.

“Something is wrong,” said Nori Gerardo Lietz, a lecturer on real estate and venture capital at Harvard Business School who recently published an analysis of the company. “They’re not managing their growth—they’re spending money like drunken sailors,” and their general and administrative costs are growing too fast, she said.

Ms. Lietz said the disclosures in We’s IPO prospectus don’t adequately explain the root problems behind the large losses, which totaled more than $1.6 billion in 2018.

A danger for We in cutting costs is that the moves would slow its growth rates. The company has doubled its revenue most every year—a quality it long hoped investors would focus on. With slower growth, investors say they would need to see a clear road to profitability.

No matter the growth rate, the business is expected to need lots of cash to build out its offices. We reported spending $1.3 billion in net capital costs in 2018—only a portion of which shows up in the company’s official losses because those costs are accounted for over many years.

Without more disclosure from We or its co-working rivals, many of which are private, it is difficult to make exact comparisons with other firms and their profitability.

Still, history shows that some comparable companies were losing far less despite strong growth. In 1998 and 1999, competitor IWG PLC—then known as Regus—positioned itself as a breakout company remaking the office market with its short-term leases and services for tenants. But even with its revenue doubling in 1999, it lost £17.9 million, or 16% of revenue.

In comparison, WE’s 2018 loss of $1.6 billion was on revenue of $1.8 billion.

The largest serviced-office company in the U.S. at the time, HQ Global Holdings, grew even faster between 1999 and 2000. Revenue more than doubled to $455 million, on which it posted losses of $20.5 million. Both IWG and HQ Global had a similar basic model, but also made money charging for add-ons like phones and printers. IWG acquired HQ Global in 2004.

Bus Of Fash. : A New Game Could Be Fashion's Farmville. Will People Pay to Play

A New Game Could Be Fashion's Farmville. Will People Pay to Play?
Former Harpers Bazaar UK Editor-in-Chief Lucy Yeomans is behind Drest, a new fashion styling game. She's betting access to Farfetch's selection and sponsored challenges from Gucci will convince users to pay for virtual goods.

NEW YORK, United States — A decade ago, if you had told fashion industry veteran Lucy Yeomans she would become a gamer, she would have laughed.
Yeomans spent 12 years as the editor-in-chief of Harper’s Bazaar UK, and was also the founding editor-in-chief of Porter, Net-a-Porter’s editorial arm, which she ran for seven years. The overlap between her readership and video game enthusiasts was likely small.
But like countless others, Yeomans stumbled upon Farmville a few years ago. And while she was weeding virtual strawberry farms and caring for digital cattle, Yeomans began to ruminate on the idea of a game that could give users a similarly addictive window into the insular world of high fashion.
“I had access to the top photographers, models, and locations ... but most people don’t get such a close look into fashion,” Yeomans said. “I thought a lot about how I could bring these elements to an audience, and allow them to create their own content.”
Her mobile fashion game, Drest, launches October 8. Users are presented with the goal of becoming a top fashion stylist via challenges like dressing clients for the Met Ball or styling the nonagenarian Iris Apfel for a fashion shoot. Finished looks are submitted to a community homepage, where users can rate them. The best receive virtual prizes.

Drest is free to download, but microtransactions are built into the game. Users start with a virtual budget of $15,000 “Drest dollars” that they can spend on clothes, makeup and accessories. Each additional $5,000 bundle costs $3.99.
To sweeten the pot, Drest partnered with Farfetch, digitising the e-commerce company’s inventory for in-game clothing. Users can also purchase real-life versions of the product from Farfetch within the app. Gucci is also sponsoring challenges that feature its products. Both Gucci and Farfetch declined to comment for this story.
It’s a model pioneered by Farmville, which has generated hundreds of millions of dollars for its creator, Zynga and spawned countless imitators. In the fashion world, players can pay to update their virtual wardrobe in order to climb the show-business ranks in the Kim Kardashian: Hollywood game, launched in 2014 by Glu Mobile. In 2016, Glu acquired Covet Fashion, which, much like Drest, offers users fashion challenges. Lovelooks, a fashion game that launched last year, lets users dress paper dolls up and earn points they can cash out for real items, including Glossier products.
Drest is launching at a time when the gaming industry is exploding. Video game revenue is estimated to hit $152 billion by the end of this year, with mobile gaming making up $68.5 billion of that total, according to Newzoo, a gaming and e-sports market research firm. Nearly 2.4 billion people will play mobile games this year, according to Newzoo.

And although historically, gaming culture has been dominated by men, women have become a rising demographic in the space. Sixty-five percent of women in the US played mobile games, according to a 2017 survey from Google Play.
But the market for fashion-themed mobile games is far smaller, said Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter. He estimates that Kim Kardashian: Hollywood and Covet Fashion earn revenue of about $30 million and $60 million annually.
“Women are an underserved niche [in gaming], so there is an opportunity to market to the passionate readers of fashion magazines,” he said. “But I’m not sure we need another fashion game. I doubt this could hit Candy Crush-level success. The demand isn’t the same.”
Women are an underserved niche [in gaming], so there is an opportunity to market to the passionate readers of fashion magazines.
The worlds of fashion and gaming have been colliding for some time now. Players of Fortnite, from Epic Games, reportedly spend $300 million a month on “skins” that change their in-game appearance. Nike made sneakers in May specifically to be “worn” by Fortnite players. In September, Louis Vuitton partnered with Riot Games to debut skins for League of Legends, plus a branded trophy case for winners of the game’s world championship.
“There’s been tremendous growth in the space and a lot of it is driven by the accessibility from mobile,” said Mark van Ryswyk, the executive vice president at Glu Mobile. “There’s actually an opportunity to bring more aspirational experiences to gaming.”
Brands see gaming as a way to market to millennials and Gen Z shoppers, who may not be able to afford designer products, but can buy their virtual equivalent.
Badgley Mishka is one of about 150 brands that has partnered with Covet Fashion. The game is now the third-largest driver of traffic to the brand’s site, said Christine Currence, Badgley Mischka’s president.
“Even if it isn’t directly driving sales, Covet is helping us build brand awareness and giving us a chance to engage with consumers in a new way,” she said.
Yeomans said there’s a greater overlap between fashion and gaming than at first glance.

“Fashion and gaming are both about escapism,” she said. “They are about adopting a fantasy version of yourself. And the narrative in fashion is so compelling. Who needs guns and ammo when you can put on a Chanel jacket and Manolos. Those pieces are empowering.”
Who needs guns and ammo when you can put on a Chanel jacket and Manolos. Those pieces are empowering.
Drest, which has a team of 75, has a private investor, Graham Edwards, the founder of commercial real estate company Telereal Trillium. Edwards introduced Yeomans to Drest’s now-Chief Operating Officer Vivion Cox, who has a background in building tech platforms for startups.
Drest is launching with a waitlist and will open up the game to a mass audience in 2020, once it has built a core user base. It will also add digital avatar versions of famous models and influencers.
The hardest part of building a successful mobile game, said Pachter, is creating a thriving in-game economy that meets the needs of users willing to spend real cash and those who want to play for free.
“It’s a hard balance between making everything available for someone who doesn’t want to spend money, and also appealing to the person who has more money than time and would rather spend than burn hours playing,” Pachter said.
The microtransaction model is also coming under scrutiny, with critics warning of a “compulsion loop,” where games push users to play more — and pay more — in order to obtain rewards. A UK government committee released a report in September declaring that mobile gaming should be regulated, arguing that loot boxes — randomised in-game rewards doled out for playing a certain amount of time, or for a small fee — are forms of gambling. In the US, Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) has pushed regulators to investigate if children are in danger of being exposed to entry-level gambling with loot boxes.
Wedbush’s Pachter believes Yeomans’ connections to the fashion world could help the game build a new model of gaming revenue. Having Gucci or Farfetch market the game could also expose Drest to newer users, Pachter added.
“A lot of gaming companies have tried to put a foot in the fashion world, but it hasn't worked,” Cox said. “This game, though, has been built by a hybrid team of gaming and tech, and it also comes from fashion’s very own. Lucy has a track record of creating beautiful things the world of fashion enjoys.”

Bus. Of Fashion : Introducing the #BoF500 Class of 2019


FT : Palladium prices hit record as car industry faces tougher r

Palladium prices hit record as car industry faces tougher rules
Demand for precious metal, used in catalysts, pushes gains for year to 33 per cent

Palladium prices rose to a record as expectations mounted of a supply squeeze driven by stricter emissions standards in the car industry.

The price of the precious metal, which is used in car catalysts, rose to $1,700 an ounce on Monday, pushing its gains for the year to 33 per cent and making it one of 2019’s best performing commodities.

Despite a slowdown in global car sales, demand for palladium has increased due to tightening emission standards in China that require more of the metal in car catalysts.

European consumers meanwhile are moving away from diesel to petrol cars, which predominantly use palladium catalysts.

The supply of palladium, which is mined in Russia and South Africa, is also expected not to increase dramatically this year.

“We struggle to see where the market might find material relief as demand continues to grow while supply remains constrained,” analysts at UBS said. “That said, there is potential for the market to overshoot and be vulnerable during periods of risk-off, especially in the context of trade tensions and slowing global growth.”

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance
:

  • CALM -4.3%

Select metals/mining stocks trading lower:

  • KGC -2.7%, AU -2.7%, HL -2.6%, GFI -2.4%, PLG -1.9%, GOLD -1.7%, SLV -1.6%, GDX -1.5%, NEM -1.1%, SBGL -1.1%, GLD -0.8%, HMY -0.7%, BHP -0.7%, BBL -0.7%

Other news:

  • GTHX -11.7% (presented over the weekend)
  • IMMU -5.7% (provides corporate update; also provides BLA resubmission timeline update)
  • TK -4% (Teekay Corporation, Teekay LNG Partners (TGP), Teekay Tankers (TNK) postpone investor and analyst meeting)
  • NVS -1.2% (presented at ESMO over the weekend)
  • RDS.A -0.9% (quarterly update)
  • AZN -0.8% (presented at ESMO over the weekend)

Analyst comments:

  • ADMS -6.4% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill; tgt lowered to $5)
  • SXC -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at B. Riley FBR)
  • UNH -0.8% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital Markets)
  • ROK -0.7% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo)

FT : Sunrise changes funding plans for $6.3bn UPC deal

Sunrise changes funding plans for $6.3bn UPC deal
Swiss group slashes rights issue to save purchase of Liberty Global unit from investor backlash

Swiss mobile phone company Sunrise Communications has overhauled the financing plan for its $6.3bn takeover of Liberty Global’s local cable business to appease a shareholder backlash against the deal.

The acquisition of UPC, part of Liberty’s dwindling European empire, was agreed in February and welcomed as a sign of growing confidence among European telecoms companies to pursue consolidation.

However, the mobile company run by former EE chief executive Olaf Swantee faced an uphill task to finance the deal after its largest shareholder, Germany’s Freenet, said it opposed a rights issue proposed by the Swiss company representing 130 per cent of its value.

Sunrise has moved to slash the size of the rights issue by a third after engineering a new funding plan following meetings in recent weeks with 200 shareholders. That will involve taking on much more debt but Mr Swantee told the Financial Times it could justify this because of a new plan to reap much higher synergies from the merger of the Swiss mobile and cable networks.

That was not enough to win the support of Freenet, a 25 per cent stakeholder in Sunrise, which said it would continue to oppose the deal. “It becomes obvious that the deal as such has lost its strategic rationale,” said a Freenet spokeswoman.

Mr Swantee said he was sanguine about Freenet’s continued opposition as the company only needed just over 50 per cent of shareholders to vote for the UPC takeover at a meeting in late October. “We will focus on the 75 per cent. We are not counting on their support,” he said.

He added that the deal already had regulatory approval and that UPC’s performance had started to improve, making the rationale for the merger in the competitive Swiss market more apparent.

“If we don’t execute it then someone else will and we will be left on the fence,” he said.

Ulrich Rathe, an analyst with Jefferies, said the likelihood of the deal proceeding had “clearly increased overall from the 60-40 odds” it estimated in September, but that approval was by no means guaranteed.

Sunrise shares were down 3 per cent in early afternoon trading in Zurich.

FT : Blackstone to buy US warehouses from Colony Capital in $5.9bn deal

Blackstone to buy US warehouses from Colony Capital in $5.9bn deal
Buyout firm’s latest acquisition furthers its bets on the rise of ecommerce

Blackstone has clinched a deal to buy a group of industrial warehouses from Colony Capital for $5.9bn including debt, adding to the private equity firm’s burgeoning portfolio in logistic properties as it bets on the rise of ecommerce.

The deal is the latest in a flurry of multibillion transactions by Blackstone’s property arm, which in June struck the largest private real estate deal in history with the acquisition of another US warehouses portfolio from Singapore-based GLP for $18.7bn.

Colony Industrial’s assets span some 60m square feet across 465 light industrial buildings with a large concentration in Dallas, Atlanta, Florida, northern New Jersey, and California.

“This acquisition of high quality warehouses demonstrates our continued strong conviction in logistics and positive ecommerce trends,” Nadeem Meghji, head of real estate Americas at Blackstone said in a statement on Monday.

Blackstone has built a $36bn war chest for investments in property after setting a new record for real estate fundraising in September with $20.5bn in commitments to its property arm.

Ken Caplan, real estate co-chief executive at Blackstone, has called the private equity group’s foray into logistics its “highest conviction” trade.

In Europe, Blackstone has amassed an €8bn portfolio of warehouses and dark kitchens, which include so-called “last mile” properties used by the likes of Amazon and also house dark kitchens that food delivery services such as Deliveroo rely on.

Colony Capital is expected to receive more than $1.2bn in proceeds.

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance
:

  • THO +5.3%

M&A news:

  • DOVA +38.5% (to be acquired by Swedish Orphan Biovitrum for $27.50/share in cash + CVR)

Select China related ADRs showing strength:

  • BZUN +2.9%, BABA +2.5%, JD +2.4%, WB +2.1%, MOMO +1.9%, BIDU +1.8%, CTRP +1.6%

Other news:

  • CALA +8.9% (reports Phase 2 data for Data From Randomized Phase 2 ENTRATA study)
  • IMGN +8.8% (presents initial safety and overall response data from Phase 1b FORWARD II triplet cohort; also analyses from Phase 3 FORWARD I study)
  • MNK +5.3% (finalizes settlement to resolve "Track 1" opioid cases with the Ohio counties of Cuyahoga and Summit)
  • FLR +4% (awarded ~$1.1 bln Navy contract to exercise the fiscal 2020 option for Naval Nuclear Propulsion work at the Naval Nuclear Laboratory)
  • ICPT +3.7% (submits NDA to the FDA for obeticholic acid for the treatment of patients with fibrosis due to nonalcholic steatohepatitis)
  • MGI +3.2% (Moneygram Payment Systems and Walmart (WMT) amend agreement to extend term through March 29, 2021 and provide additional flexibility related to MoneyGram product offerings in Walmart)
  • SGEN +2.6% (Seattle Genetics and Astellas reports Phase 1 trial of investigational agent enfortumab vedotin in combination with Pembrolizumab; Study met outcomes for safety and 71% of patients)
  • CLVS +2.5% (presents updated data from Phase 2 TRITON2 trial)
  • GCO +2% (authorizes new $100 mln stock repurchase program)
  • ACRX +1.8% (extends supply agreement with SpecGX through December 31, 2022)
  • GSK +1.3% (presented at ESMO over the weekend)

Analyst comments:

  • BBBY +4.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush)
  • URBN +3.6% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo)
  • NWL +2.4% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at SunTrust)
  • CI +1.8% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets)
  • EMR +0.9% (upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts)