FT : Digital human rights are next frontier for fund groups

Digital human rights are next frontier for fund groups
Investors take a critical look at potentially damaging role of some technology in everyday lives

Politicians publicly grilling technology chiefs such as Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg is all too familiar for investors.

“There isn’t a day that goes by where you don’t see one of the tech companies talking to Congress or being highlighted for some kind of controversy,” says Lauren Compere, director of shareholder engagement at Boston Common Asset Management, a $2.4bn fund group that invests heavily in tech stocks.

Fallout from the Cambridge Analytica scandal that engulfed Facebook was a wake-up call for investors such as Boston Common, underlining the damaging social effects of digital technology if left unchecked. “These are the red flags coming up for us again and again,” says Ms Compere.

Digital human rights are fast becoming the latest front in the debate around fund managers’ ethical investments efforts. Fund managers have come under pressure in recent years to divest from companies that can harm human rights — from gun manufacturers or retailers to operators of private prisons. The focus is now switching to the less tangible but equally serious human rights risks lurking in fund managers’ technology holdings.

Attention on technology groups began with concerns around data privacy, but emerging focal points are targeted advertising and how companies deal with online extremism.

Following a terrorist attack in New Zealand this year where the shooter posted video footage of the incident online, investors managing assets of more than NZ$90bn (US$57bn) urged Facebook, Twitter and Alphabet, Google’s parent company, to take more action in dealing with violent or extremist content published on their platforms.

The Investor Alliance for Human Rights is currently co-ordinating a global engagement effort with Alphabet over the governance of its artificial intelligence technology, data privacy and online extremism.

Investor engagement on the topic of digital human rights is in its infancy. One roadblock for investors has been the difficulty they face in detecting and measuring what the actual risks are. “Most investors do not have a very good understanding of the implications of all of the issues in the digital space and don’t have sufficient research and tools to properly assess them — and that goes for companies too,” said Ms Compere.

One rare resource available is the Ranking Digital Rights Corporate Accountability Index, established in 2015, which rates tech companies based on a range of metrics. The development of such tools gives investors more information on the risk associated with technological advancements, enabling them to hold companies to account when they identify risks and questionable ethics.

Another challenge is the pace of technological advancements. “The concern is that technological changes are being quickly driven through by companies but sometimes we don’t stop and ask what is the human rights impact,” said John Howchin, secretary-general of the Swedish AP funds’ ethics council. “In future it will be seen as a wild west.”

This point is highlighted by the fierce debate surrounding artificial intelligence and facial recognition software. Hailed as a way to make society more efficient, investors are grappling with the fact that facial recognition can also be used for unethical purposes. Critics of the software say companies that manufacture and sell it may not be aware of how it is being used, especially when adopted by governments for military purposes.

Facial and emotion recognition systems are notably deployed by the Chinese government for surveillance in the Xinjiang region, where an estimated 1m mostly Muslim minorities are held in internment camps. In the US, activists and privacy groups claim the technology is used in a harmful way by federal agencies such as Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection.

There are also concerns about flaws and biases in facial recognition programmes. A test by the American Civil Liberties Union last year found that Amazon’s facial recognition technology, Rekognition, wrongly identified 28 members of Congress as arrestees. Research has also shown that the software registers more cases of mistaken identity with women and minorities.

Carola van Lamoen, head of active ownership at Robeco, the €199bn asset manager, said: “We see the ability of AI to facilitate growth potential for technology companies but we also see the associated risks.”

Complicating the picture is the absence of harmonised regulations governing AI. Robeco recently embarked on a probe into the social impact of AI prompted by concerns that the advancements were outpacing the development of rules or principles.

In the US, for example, a handful of cities have banned local government and law enforcement agencies from deploying facial recognition software but federal agencies can still use it.

“What worries investors [about AI] is that the technology is being developed in a vacuum — we’re not seeing a global norm around it,” said Ms Compere.

Several companies, including Google, Microsoft and IBM, have taken initial steps to protect against unintended risks by adopting codes of AI ethics.

Microsoft has been particularly vocal, calling last year for “a government initiative to regulate the proper use of facial recognition technology”. This year the company declined a request from a California law enforcement agency to install facial recognition technology in officers’ cars and body cameras over human rights concerns.

Despite Microsoft’s decision, few companies have gone public on how risks to human rights influence their business decisions and affect which contracts they accept or decline.

Some investors are using their voice within companies to make a stand. The Interfaith Center on Corporate Responsibility, a coalition of responsible investors managing more than $400bn in assets, this year filed a resolution at Amazon calling for it to stop selling Rekognition to governments until it had completed a review into whether it posed a threat to civil and human rights.

Other investors want companies to integrate human rights considerations into their formal risk management assessments and make senior executives accountable for this. “We want companies to do their homework,” said Ms van Lamoen. “They should know when and how AI is used, assess the potential impacts and actively monitor this at board level.”

“Technology companies have had issues involving human rights over the past few years,” said Mr Howchin. “We think there’s a need for the whole technology sector to better understand human rights and start hiring people who are specialist in human rights.”

This involves asking companies to train their AI designers to consider human rights during the product development process. “Unless concepts are baked in to the actual design of newer technologies from the get-go, it is a lot harder to control human rights implications,” said Ms Compere.

FT : Online streaming: Television’s looming car crash

Online streaming: Television’s looming car crash
In the media arms race to take on Netflix not all new services can survive

Deepti Kapoor was pushing 40 and her writing career had struggled to rise above the ordinary. Her first novel, A Bad Character, was published in 2014 and sold fewer than 2,000 copies. Ms Kapoor freelanced for websites like HuffPost, writing blog posts such as “I was a party girl, but yoga saved me from myself”.

Years later, she pitched Age of Vice, the first novel of a crime trilogy set in Delhi. In October, her agents submitted the manuscript to publishing houses in New York and producers in LA.

What happened next was indicative of the spend-to-win mania gripping the entertainment industry. Within weeks, offers came rolling in from most of the big studios, with more than 20 bidders — a number that one publishing executive described as “unprecedented”.

Amazon wanted to make a TV series out of it, as did HBO. Michael Ellenberg’s Media Res bid; so did Fox’s FX Networks, via a partnership with Nina Jacobson’s Color Force, the studio behind Crazy Rich Asians. WarnerMedia separately pitched a feature film with producer David Heyman, who made the Harry Potter films.

FX won the auction, which closed last week, paying about $2m to option Kapoor’s books for a television series, according to people familiar with the deal. In comparison Hidden Figures, the book about three African American women who worked at Nasa and which was the basis for the hit film of the same name, sold for less than $100,000 in 2014. The high pricetag for Age of Vice comes as media groups scour for ideas that can be packaged into streamable content: last week, Disney chief Bob Iger announced that FX will make shows for Hulu, the streaming service in which Disney owns a controlling stake.

Hollywood is in the midst of a costly land-grab. America’s traditional media empires are spending tens of billions of dollars as they fight back against technology groups that have ravaged their business. As the distribution model for entertainment is remade, a revolutionary ardour has seized the industry: the choice is to win the streaming battle against the likes of Netflix, or face commercial oblivion.

The immediate result has been clear: more television than ever before. There were 496 scripted TV shows made in the US last year, more than double the 216 series released in 2010. In the past eight years the number of shows grew by 129 per cent, while the US population rose only 6 per cent. The trend is set to deepen, as groups like AT&T’s WarnerMedia commission dozens of new series to convince people to sign up for their streaming services.

“This isn’t a gold rush, it’s an arms race. We don’t know if there is any pot of gold,” warns an executive at a big media group. “Once the music stops, there will be carnage. It might take three to five years, but there has to come a point when we come to our senses.”

In recent years, Netflix has spent tens of billions of dollars bankrolling its own content to build up an independent library, in anticipation that traditional media groups would eventually become rivals, rather than partners willing to license films and television series.

That moment has arrived. In the span of about six months, Disney, Apple, AT&T and Comcast are launching new streaming services, asking people to pay nothing for some servicesor up to $15 a month to watch their libraries of films and shows.

The goal, says Discovery Communications chief executive David Zaslav, is to attract 150m subscribers and become “the third man standing with Netflix and Amazon”. Netflix already has 160m paid global subscribers.

“It’s fear driven frenzy over the same pie,” says Mr Zaslav, The battle is “going to be a mess,” he adds, “and in the end it’s not clear anyone will make money”.

The boom has awarded big Hollywood names, such as JJ Abrams, Shonda Rhimes and Ryan Murphy, with nine-figure deals to make shows for streaming. But it has also trickled down to artists like Ms Kapoor, who is due for an estimated $80,000 pay cheque per episode to write and produce the upcoming series.

Nearly everyone the FT interviewed warned that this pace of spending is unsustainable, and that not all the new streaming services would survive. Tom Ara, co-chair of entertainment law practice at DLA Piper, predicts some “softening” on the content boom when the streaming battle shakes out. However, he does not expect it to return to pre-streaming levels because “streaming platforms have rewired our brains” to expect bingeable, movie-quality fresh content all the time.

After watching Wall Street reward Netflix for its boldness, the older media groups are under pressure to respond with new streaming services. “Time is of the essence,” says a senior film executive. “Every quarter if you are not saying you are going to do something that will compete with the streamers . . . you’re going to be punished for it by the street”.

Most executives trace the start of this high spending era to 2013, when Netflix paid a premium to snatch political drama House of Cards from HBO. It set the tone for Netflix for years to come: outspending traditional studios to attract the most sought-after scripts.

Years later, the studios are now mimicking the strategy, resulting in fierce bidding wars and soaring content prices. Netflix is regularly being outbid: earlier this year WarnerMedia bought the streaming rights to Friends, the 1990s sitcom, while NBCUniversal secured those to The Office — removing two of Netflix’s most-watched shows from its platform in 2020 and 2021.

Netflix executives say the price of the most popular content has jumped by a third from a year ago. Reed Hastings, chief executive, told investors last month the $100m Netflix paid for House of Cards would today be “a bargain”.


Mr Hastings continues to tell colleagues this is “no time to pull back”, arguing that “the best defence is a good offence”. But some in the industry see even this technology-based company reaching its limits after missing its subscriber targets for two consecutive quarters. “How many more [pricey films like] The Irishman can they viably make?” asked the chief executive of a film financing group. “When you make a mediocre [heist] movie like Triple Frontier for $125m . . . no conventional film financier would ever do that.”

One senior Netflix executive says the sentiment internally is that: “We already bulked up . . . Obviously we will still bid on things if they are exciting, but the sense is we got ahead of it.”

The streaming wars are expensive. Netflix is set to spend $15bn on content this year, and has $12bn in long-term debt, and more than $20bn in commitments for future shows in off-balance sheet liabilities. Analysts at Wells Fargo noted that for every dollar consumers spend on a monthly Netflix account, they receive almost $1bn of content. Disney and HBO Max are not far behind, with plans to each spend around $11bn in 2019 as they commission new series.

Apple has committed more than $6bn to its streaming push, according to people familiar with its plans. Last month it hosted a lavish premiere at New York’s Lincoln Center for The Morning Show, starring Jennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon. Apple paid around $250m for two seasons of the talk show drama, beating Netflix for the coveted programme, according to people familiar with the negotiations.

That equates to about $12m per hourly episode, higher than the $8m-$10m for HBO’s Game of Thrones. And a sixfold increase on the $2m cost per episode of Friends, in which Ms Aniston starred. Even nostalgic fare has soared in value. Netflix in September agreed to pay $500m over five years for the global rights to Seinfeld, the 1990s sitcom. In 2015 Hulu bought the US rights for about $20m a year.

Casey Bloys, head of programming for HBO, told investors last week that the network is “dealing with [price inflation] on a case-by-case basis”. “There’s more competition than ever, and more platforms and services doing more and more, and prices are going up,” he says.

“We’ve seen nothing like this since the golden age of the studios in the late 1930s. It’s a rush,” says Michael Ellenberg of Media Res, the producer behind The Morning Show. But he cautions that “like any period of fast innovation there will be winners and losers”.

Investors have cheered the spending splurge, propelling Disney’s share price to historic highs, despite an expectation that the company’s profits will suffer for years to come as it spends heavily on streaming and loses a good part of around $6bn of revenues from selling content to streaming services.

This comes even as Disney, Apple and AT&T price their services cheaply, pushing for rapid US expansion. AT&T, for example, doubled the volume of content that comes with an HBO streaming subscription for the same price: $15 a month. Apple is giving away its streaming service to the 200m people who buy its devices each year. Disney has priced its service at $7 a month — less than half that of a standard Netflix subscription — and will give it away for free to customers of Verizon’s unlimited phone plans.

These deals are great news for consumers, but questionable financial strategies for publicly traded companies. “We are looking at a multibillion-dollar car crash coming, funded by US capital markets,” says Claire Enders of Enders Analysis.

Underpinning the boom is an assumption that streaming services will relentlessly eat into the market for traditional TV customers who switch from or supplement their existing deals. Morgan Stanley estimates that in five years, Americans could pay for 305m subscriptions to streaming services in US, rising from around 180m today.

Meanwhile, Disney and its peers have little choice but to adapt. In the third quarter of this year another 1.7m Americans ditched their traditional television packages from providers AT&T, Comcast, Charter and Verizon.

Research group MoffettNathanson predicts Disney’s streaming business will be lossmaking for five years, but that by 2024, streaming will bring it $23bn in annual revenues — nearly half of total sales.

The appeal of streaming was always to offer more choice, at cheaper rates. But the explosion of services — there are more than two dozen in the US — may change the cost calculus. “The consumer will be left in the exact same position that they didn’t want to be in,” says Jason Cloth, founder of Creative Wealth Media, which co-financed hit movie The Joker. “You will be paying as much, maybe more, for all these speciality streaming services.”

There might also be parallels with the profusion of niche cable television channels in the 1990s — and the bout of consolidation that followed. Mr Cloth noted that “it would be interesting” if an aggregator, such as a cable company, packaged all these streaming services together into a cheaper bundle.

John Stankey, the AT&T executive who runs WarnerMedia, expects demand to start to drop off soon. “Three years from now, we see maybe a moderating in the demand hours for production,” he told investors, as he pitched WarnerMedia’s streaming service from the historic Warner Bros studio lot where Casablanca was filmed.

Few confidently predict how this will play out, but the reckoning is likely to be unsparing. Some big ventures are expected to fail, or retreat. Smaller and midsized studios may take a more limited role as suppliers to the dominant platforms. Discovery and other groups are banking on consumers opting for niche offerings, from cooking to sport.

Among Hollywood executives the talk is ultimately of a wave of consolidation, with successful streamers or tech groups such as Apple buying up media groups and movie studios lacking the scale to compete. “When the dust settles there may only be four or five big guys left,” says one.

The immediate loser may be Netflix’s stock price. Its valuation is “just getting increasingly hard to defend,’’ analyst Michael Nathanson warned last month, while questioning whether Netflix can hit its US subscriber expectations. MoffettNathanson estimates that Netflix’s valuation should be “less than $200 a share” — a steep cut from the $290 it currently trades at.

For the sector, the question is who will be burnt the most. “What happens when they can’t sustain it?” says the chief executive of an independent film studio. “All of a sudden you will have this very bloated machine, that can’t pay for its overextended self. I think the industry is afraid to call it for what it is.”

AIER : The Gamification of Bitcoin

The Gamification of Bitcoin - http://bit.ly/2NYl8Wh

leven years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto announced the bitcoin whitepaper to the world. Coinbase, a large cryptocurrency exchange, recently celebrated this milestone with a retrospective.

I’m going to remix Coinbase’s narrative to tell a different account of bitcoin’s last 11-years.

The thing that fooled us all for a while, myself included, is that we all thought bitcoin was solving a monetary or payments problem. It was labelled a coin, after all, and coins fall within the realm of monetary economics. To further complicate matters, Satoshi told his story using phrases like “electronic cash system” and “non-reversible transactions”. Perhaps we deserve to be forgiven for not seeing bitcoin’s underlying nature. After all, tearing down the existing monetary system and building a new one was a fresh and exciting narrative.

Anyways, Coinbase still believes this old tale. “As with other technologies, money has gone through many upgrades over the years,” its marketing team writes. “Bitcoin is the latest breakthrough in a technology that’s millennia old.”

What is now apparent is that bitcoin was never a monetary phenomenon. No, bitcoin is a new sort of financial betting game. It is a digital, global, highly-secure, and fairer version of the old-fashioned chain letter.

The premise behind bitcoin-the-game is that the current wave of buyers must guess when (or if) a subsequent wave of buyers will emerge, this second next wave’s participation being contingent on when (or if) they believe a third wave of buyers to emerge. If they guess right, the early birds win at the expense of the late ones. And they can win a lot of money, as Coinbase points out in its post:
Think of bitcoin as a pure mind game, a Keynesian beauty contest in which we “devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be.” Those old fashioned chain letters that you (or your parents) used to get in the mail were an early type of beauty contest. The price that Alice was willing to place on a chain letter was a function of whether she expected the next recipient, Bill, to play by the rules and send it on, Bill’s expectation in turn depending on the odds that Jack would join the game.

But chain letters had a major flaw. The chain order could be easily compromised by a fraudster who miscopied the list and put their name at the front. Bitcoin fixes this by introducing robustness to chain letter-type games. Bitcoin’s blockchain is an unbreakable public record of where in line game players stand. Altering this chain order would require tremendous amounts of computer power, as Coinbase illustrates in this chart:
Bitcoin-the-game has been spectacularly successful. As Coinbase points out, it “went from an idea in 2008, and a first transaction in 2009, to over 27 million users in the US alone in 2019, or 9% of Americans.” Below, Coinbase has charted the number of active bitcoin addresses that have been created over the years:
Why did bitcoin-the-game succeed?

First, it’s a fun and cutting-edge game. Many people dream of thrusting themselves out of financial obscurity into millionaire land. Bitcoin is a technologically-sophisticated way to get there. No one wants to play grandpa’s lottery.

Secondly, the way that bitcoin is designed helps it spread. Most of the legacy financial games that bitcoin competes with (poker, lotteries, sports betting) are regulated by the government. Strict rules prevent game providers from reaching a wide audience. For instance, online casinos may be prevented from serving out-of-state players, problem gamblers may be banned, and those who are under 18 must be excluded. These financial games are usually centralized. This means they are hosted on a single website, or at a physical location like a casino, or by a government-run lottery corporation. Which makes it easy for regulators to shut down game providers who break the rules.

But bitcoin is different. Because it is a decentralized and digital financial game, it can’t be regulated or shut down. And so it can serve the entire globe with impunity. Which it has done by spreading into every crack and cranny on earth. As is illustrated by another of Coinbase’s charts:
Based entirely on whisps and storms of psychology, the price of bitcoin is inherently volatile. Its core volatility has stayed pretty much constant over the last 11-years. Users should expect the same for the next 11 years. Even if more people join a Keynesian beauty contest, the average opinion of the average opinion will always be a fickle, inconsistent thing, and so price will always be jittery.

So what about bitcoin-as-money? Yes, people do use bitcoin for payments. But this gets dwarfed by its popularity as a financial game. The problem is this. Bitcoin payment functionality is implemented on top of a highly volatile chassis, a fun but fickle beauty contest. Which hobbles the effectiveness of the payments platform. Regular folks won’t use the stuff to pay. They don’t want the value of their spending stash to fall by 20% overnight. And game players don’t want to waste their tokens on buying goods & services. That could mean potentially missing out on a life changing jackpot. That’s why the promise of mainstream bitcoin payments has died a thousand deaths over the last 11 years.

That being said, the demand for bitcoin in economically volatile regions such as Venezuela has hit record highs. Coinbase suggests that thanks to inflation and capital controls, bitcoin is finally being used as the electronic cash for which it was originally designed.
Coinbase could be right. In places like the U.S. with functioning monetary systems, bitcoin is just too awkward to serve as a payments alternative. But in places where monetary breakdowns have occurred, regular folks may be more willing to put up with the inherent pitfalls of transacting with bitcoin. And so we finally get to see bitcoin-as-money emerging.That’s a good thing.

But bitcoin’s popularity in Venezuela is also consistent with the bitcoin-as-game narrative. When people are desperate to improve their lives, they may have little other option but to roll the dice. In Run Lola Run, Lola needs to quickly make 100,000 Deutschmarks to save her boyfriend’s life. She races to a casino and plays roulette. Likewise, in the face of societal collapse, Venezuelans may simply be gambling on whatever potentially life-changing bet they can find. Bitcoin is one such a bet. Unwinding what portion of Venezuelan usage is due to bitcoin-as-game versus bitcoin-as-money is tricky.

Coinbase goes on to spout the typical cryptocurrency industry nonsense about legacy payments. It claims that “sending an international wire transfer by major US banks costs around $45, can take days to process, and can be done only during banking hours.” And here is the chart it uses:

That may be a good critique from ten years ago. But with SWIFT gpi having rolled out a few years back, multinationals can make near real-time cross border payments using the traditional correspondent banking system. For individuals and small businesses, fintech Transferwise offers instant remittances over fiat rails. These can settle on weekends in nations like the UK, which have real-time retail payments systems. I’ve touched on this before.

Continuing along with hyperbole, Coinbase makes the claim that bitcoin remittance fees are minimal compared to fiat. But this ignores the sizable foreign exchange fees that one must pay when converting fiat into bitcoin and back into fiat. I’ve gone into this calculus before.

What’s next for Bitcoin? asks Coinbase in closing. Let me give it a shot. It’s possible that bitcoin-as-game will stay popular for a very long time. And if it does, that could be a good thing. As I’ve suggested before, there is a demand as-such for financial games and bets, specifically early-bird bets. Compared to many of the fly-by-night games out there, bitcoin provides a fair and trustworthy option.

What about the original vision that got us all so excited, bitcoin-as-money? Crippled by bitcoin’s game-based engine, bitcoin payments are probably never going to move beyond the niche role that they currently occupy. That’s better than nothing. When those on the fringes are temporarily cut off from the conventional payments system, they’ll always have an option for making transactions. It might not be a user-friendly option, but at least it’s there.

FT : The downfall of Carlos Ghosn

The downfall of Carlos Ghosn
How a titan of the global car industry built an empire — and lost it all

A year ago on a cloudy afternoon, Carlos Ghosn landed in Tokyo’s Haneda airport. As chairman of the global carmaking alliance between Renault, Nissan and Mitsubishi, he was one of the industry’s most feted leaders, a businessman with decades of dealmaking behind him, as well as one of the more improbable turnrounds in corporate history.

He was due to have dinner at a favourite sushi restaurant that evening with one of his daughters and to chair a board meeting the next day. But before he could leave the airport, he was arrested.

As a moment of public theatre, with prosecutors raiding the corporate jet on the runway, the arrest was eye-catching. For Japan’s business community, and the country as a whole, it seemed unprecedented. But for a small group within Nissan, it was not a surprise.

It would later transpire that the arrest was the result of nearly a year of secret investigations within the company and a deal between whistleblowers and the authorities.

For close observers of Ghosn and his leadership, it was incredible that a man who had run his empire so minutely and for so long should have been blindsided by a plot this big. When he landed on November 19, he was, in his own words, completely “ambushed”.

Arrested in the airport — rather than on the jet as was initially reported — the first call he made for legal help was, unwittingly, to one of the key figures behind his downfall.

For others, the incident was an inevitable breaking point. Tensions had surrounded Ghosn for some time. There was the clash with Renault’s largest shareholder, the French government, over his increasingly astronomical pay. There was the absence of truly inspiring new cars in Nissan’s pipeline and the resentment of dealers. There were the fundamental governance issues raised by one man overseeing three listed companies.

And then there was the overarching question of whether Ghosn could push Nissan and Renault into a full merger in time to strike a career-topping deal with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA): a race not only against competitors, but against the seismic disruption coming via electric vehicles, autonomous driving and ride sharing.

“He had turned into an emperor without clothes,” says the chief executive of a large dealer for Nissan in Japan.

Ghosn was relentlessly driven by the search for scale — his desire to create an ever-bigger automotive empire — but that expansion made it progressively harder to balance the diverging needs of the companies he ran.

“He lost sight of the business,” says one person close to Nissan’s board. “He tried to make the alliance bigger and bigger to overcome Toyota and Volkswagen. That was his ambition, but it was too much to pursue for a leader.”

Today, a year after his arrest and almost two decades after taking control of Nissan, Ghosn is confined to Tokyo under the terms of a $13.5m bail agreement. His corporate legacy is unravelling. Last month, FCA agreed a deal with Peugeot that killed all hope of a tie-up with Renault-Nissan. A scathing governance probe by Nissan has condemned the “personality cult” and opaque, unquestioned authority of the Ghosn era.

No start date has been set for the trial, which could ultimately cost him many more years of freedom. He can see his children but not his second wife Carole. When he leaves his flat, he is tailed by three agencies: the police, prosecutors and a private detective believed to be hired by the very company he once saved from bankruptcy.

He has slowly regained some weight, say his family, after 129 days in a bleak Tokyo detention centre, but his reputation has been savaged; his lavish corporate perks laid bare. Even the designer suits he wore have come under scrutiny.

The question of what triggered Ghosn’s downfall from corporate messiah to a man facing criminal charges of financial misconduct remains in dispute. His camp blame a “poisoned” plot that saw him fall victim to a government and corporate conspiracy against him and his plans to merge Nissan and Renault.

Yet the charges against him are weighty: he is accused of falsifying financial statements by understating his pay by more than $80m and misusing company assets for his own gain — all of which he denies.

Company documents and extensive interviews with current and former executives of Nissan and Renault, government officials, financial advisers and confidants form a picture of a business leader whose long years at the top had made it difficult to tell where his dreams for his companies ended and his personal ambitions began.

His story is also that of a man who, for nearly 20 years, tested the question of whether an outsider could ever really become part of corporate Japan. Within the country, Ghosn was one of the few foreign CEOs singled out for real praise. In the early 2000s, as Japan struggled with stagnation, whole sections of Tokyo bookshops were devoted to the magic bullets he was supposedly firing at its languishing business culture.

For Nissan, he was a messianic figure. This view changed over time: for some he became a tyrant, to others a man driven by greed and to still others a leader who allowed the paragon of Franco-Japanese co-operation to become fatally unbalanced in favour of France.

“In his mind, he’s still a CEO,” said a person close to Ghosn, “but he’s not the CEO of a multibillion-dollar global company, he’s the CEO of this group of lawyers and others all trying to clear his name.”

Three years before his arrest, an immaculately suited Ghosn had walked on to a stage at Nissan’s headquarters in Yokohama. In 16 years as the first non-Japanese head of the company, he had wrenched the business from the edge of collapse to the forefront of the global auto industry.

He had successfully steered Nissan’s fiendishly nuanced and politically charged alliance with Renault into a relationship capable of bearing fruit.

On this particular day, he was announcing Nissan’s purchase of a 34 per cent stake in Mitsubishi Motors — an apparent masterstroke of dealmaking that brought one of Japan’s most renowned corporate names into his empire at a deep discount.

Even by the standards of someone fond of proclaiming “win-win” situations, it was a magisterial moment. “Today, our global alliance has reached an inflection point,” he declared. The deal he had negotiated took three second-tier carmakers — Nissan, Renault and Mitsubishi — into the elite club producing 10 million vehicles a year, in an industry selling 92 million vehicles overall. The only other members were his bitter rivals Volkswagen and Toyota.

But behind the scenes, in a series of secret meetings in anonymous hotel rooms, Ghosn had something even more ambitious in mind: a deal with Fiat Chrysler. The proposed agreement would have created the legacy he dreamt of — an industry behemoth.

It would also have set out the route that would allow him, then 62, to ascend to the status of “chairman emeritus” — a semi-retirement role overseeing the huge new alliance and guaranteeing him homes around the world, a lump sum of $40m and a performance-linked annual salary of $6m.

Ghosn’s obsession with scale was as great as rival carmakers had long suspected. In 2018, the alliance beat Toyota and sold almost as many vehicles as Volkswagen. At the end of each year, every vehicle that could possibly be included in the count was added to boost the total. “He never said it, but he wanted to be the biggest in the world,” says one former aide.

A deal with FCA, say people close to Ghosn at the time, would also have brought the satisfaction that he had been right to ignore the advice he had given himself when talking to investors in the early 2000s: that every CEO should step down within five years.

Ghosn had always been ambitious. Born in Porto Velho, Brazil, to a family of Lebanese immigrants, he was educated in Lebanon from the age of six before studying engineering in Paris at the prestigious École Polytechnique.

He landed his first job at Michelin and was poached by Renault in 1996, where he became known as Le cost killer for a radical restructuring that transformed the French carmaker. His objectives at Renault were clear from the start. “For the first time, I was signing on to a company where my prospects were unlimited and my path lay open before me,” he wrote in his autobiography.

In 1999, Renault rescued Nissan from near-bankruptcy in a deal that ultimately left it with a 43 per cent voting stake in the debt-laden Japanese carmaker. It was a historic transaction struck at a dismal economic time for Japan.

Ghosn, then a vice-president at the French company, was sent to Tokyo. Many Nissan employees, who were losing faith in their own management team, were mesmerised by his charisma.

In an oral history of the Renault-Nissan alliance compiled by Keio University, Toshiyuki Shiga, who later became chief operating officer, recalled hearing Ghosn speak during a visit in 1998 before the deal was struck: “The power of his presentation was amazing. I thought Nissan would not be able to change without someone like him.”

The now famous “Nissan revival plan”, released just four months after Ghosn was named the group’s chief operating officer in June 1999, was widely acclaimed for its success in transforming a troubled company into a profitable carmaker within a year.

The steps he took broke almost every taboo in Japan at the time: the closure of five plants, a cut of 21,000 jobs and a tearing down of ties to the keiretsu, the business groups who underpinned Japan’s postwar economic growth.

“A lot of suppliers disappeared, including many of my friends. But the parts makers that survived are now very competitive,” says Akihiko Shido, who became chief executive of Yorozu, a key automotive parts supplier for Nissan, just six months after Ghosn arrived in Japan.

“I had complex feelings at the time but what Ghosn achieved was extraordinary,” he says, adding that the allegations of financial misconduct have not changed his assessment.

Even his fiercest critics acknowledge Ghosn’s ability to deliver results, with his razor-sharp focus on performance and numerical targets. “The initial V-shaped recovery was not achieved because he was a foreigner, but it was because he was Carlos Ghosn,” says Yutaka Suzuki, a former Nissan executive tipped to become the Japanese group’s CEO before Ghosn took the top job in 2000.

“It was perfectly natural for him to seek proper compensation when he was sent to Nissan, but he seems to have crossed the line with the various problems that have emerged since then.”

The Ghosn of the late 1990s — with his factory jacket, ill-fitting suits and geeky glasses — was a different type of leader to the one of recent years. People who worked with him describe a boss who talked to staff, suppliers, dealers and factories, and whose management style was open and transparent.

Although the father of four would respond to texts from his family within the hour, his nickname was “Seven-Eleven”, with workdays that he said “began at dawn and ended long after sunset”.

Ghosn’s drive inspired those around him. “He had a technique in those days of almost making you feel you could do the impossible,” recalls a former Nissan executive. In turn, he demanded his staff be as flexible, and globally footloose, as him. In one instance, a Europe-based director was told he was moving to Japan the following week.

He rarely lost his temper. “Ghosn doesn’t like conflicts. He didn’t want to force people to do things,” says one person who worked alongside him. If he was disappointed in the performance of an underling, he would give them a chance to explain why and to come up with a plan to fix it. “He was an excellent listener,” the person adds.

But a critical turning point arrived in 2005. Ghosn was appointed Renault’s CEO, putting him at the helm of two companies and creating the concentration of power that Nissan executives would later claim led to glaring lapses in governance standards.

Ghosn’s new, and entirely unique, managerial challenge was to maintain the most fragile of balances: between a French company in thrall to the large stake held by the state and a Japanese company that had taken a decisive lead as the stronger industrial partner.

His increased responsibilities in Paris — and the political complexities the role involved — meant he spent less time in Japan, particularly with the lower reaches of the company.

“Carlos Ghosn was, from 1999 to about 2005, a much more collaborative boss, constantly visiting the gemba — the factory floors — talking to the employees,” says Patrick Pélata, a former chief operating officer at Renault, who left the company in 2012 and is now an automotive consultant. “But he hugely changed as a boss over the years . . . He became more autocratic and told people he did not want to see problems.”

People familiar with Ghosn’s thinking insist he was not overwhelmed by the four roles he eventually played: chairman of Nissan and Mitsubishi, CEO of Renault and head of the alliance. They add that his change in management style was driven by necessity and time constraints rather than a fundamental shift in management philosophy or approach.

His increasing responsibilities meant Ghosn stopped attending annual meetings with key Nissan dealers, who grew frustrated. The company’s position in Japan fell from number two behind Toyota to number five. In spring 2016, dealers demanded “Q&A time” with Ghosn to grill him on Nissan’s flagging performance.

“Before, there was a sense that he would listen to our voices on the ground and manage the company together, but that feeling of unity was lost,” says the head of a large dealer for Nissan in Japan.

At the same time, Ghosn was coming to the apex of his powers as a global CEO overseeing $200bn a year in revenue. He had begun to refer to himself as the “re-founder” of Nissan.

As the company’s financial position became healthier, his colleagues observed that he was increasingly preoccupied with his own reputation. His suits became sharper — a new Louis Vuitton number was ordered for every motor show. “The PR function was essentially there to serve his public image, way beyond what it was supposed to,” says one former employee.

Jean-Marc Daniel, an economist and university friend of Ghosn, says that even as the former Nissan boss gained confidence as a manager, he constantly battled a sense of exclusion and a need to belong both in France and Japan.

“He was always just outside the real circle,” Daniel says. “He felt he had to protect himself, gather wealth, become more authoritative, but that in turn isolated him more.”

The globetrotting CEO loved nothing more than holding press conferences alongside heads of state. His grasp of at least five languages and melting-pot upbringing gave him a cultural dexterity that allowed him to blend into any setting, whether American car plants or Middle Eastern palaces.

“To some extent, he was everybody and nobody in a national sense. He played on that, because of his upbringing,” says one former director who often travelled with him.

His visits abroad became like those of a head of state. Personal assistants with headsets would jump out of vehicles ahead of him, alerting others that “the president is arriving”. A team on the ground would spend weeks planning his schedule.

Once, a speaking engagement was cancelled because the venue, which was under construction, did not have a formal address, meaning aides were unable to plan to the minute the time it would take to reach the next engagement.

Few inside Nissan publicly criticised Ghosn for fear of retaliation in “a corporate culture in which no one can make any objections or say ‘no’”, according to the group’s governance probe.

“Part of the problem stemmed [from] Nissan executives who let their guard down and were afraid to speak up against Ghosn,” says Suzuki. “That resulted in an environment of complacency where Ghosn felt he could get away with anything.”

In autumn 2016, Ghosn pulled strings to secure the Palais de Versailles as a venue for a lavish party in honour of his second wife Carole. The party would become one focus of broader 2019 investigations ordered by both Nissan and Renault into whether the carmakers ended up paying for services, properties and other expenses that appeared to solely benefit Ghosn and his family.

That included nearly $20m spent on company-owned houses for Ghosn in Beirut, Rio de Janeiro and Paris through Nissan’s non-consolidated subsidiaries. It was these properties that triggered a secret investigation by a small group of executives in early 2018, just as Ghosn was declaring his desire to make the alliance between Nissan and Renault “irreversible”.

Ghosn’s representatives say all the expenses were authorised and tied to legitimate business purposes, and that his family believed the residences were corporate housing whose purchases were approved by Nissan

Within two years of bringing Mitsubishi into the alliance, Ghosn had become one of the industry’s best-paid executives. In 2017-18, he earned a combined pay package of $17m — compensation he privately felt was more than justified after he rejected an offer to run rival General Motors that might have doubled his pay. The only other Japanese CEO of a listed company who earned more that year was Kazuo Hirai, Sony’s former boss, who earned $25m.

Asked by the FT just months ahead of his arrest whether it had ever occurred to him that he was paid too much, Ghosn laughed: “You won’t have any CEO say, ‘I’m overly compensated.’ It’s not up to me, the board is sovereign on this.”

His former colleague at Renault who worked with him for nearly a decade added: “The one thing that has never changed is his relationship with money. He always thought it was a measure of success.”

Ghosn’s compensation — and the tens of millions of dollars more he was supposed to receive after retirement — is now at the heart of the allegations that led to his downfall.

He has been charged with four counts: two accuse him of failing to report more than $80m in deferred compensation that he was set to receive over eight years up to March 2018. His lawyers say Nissan never committed to pay the money and that he never received any unreported compensation.

In September this year, Ghosn agreed to pay $1m to settle fraud charges with the US Securities and Exchange Commission over allegations he hid more than $140m of his pay package at Nissan. Although Ghosn neither admits nor denies any of the charges made by the SEC, “the settlement with SEC does weaken Ghosn’s claims that he was framed”, Yasuyuki Takai, a former prosecutor and now a defence lawyer, previously told the FT.

Another breach of trust charge involves a private asset management company created to handle Ghosn’s yen-based Nissan salary. Prosecutors allege that, at the height of the 2008 financial crisis, this company attempted to address unrealised losses from a derivatives transaction totalling Y1.85bn ($16.7m) by transferring them to Nissan.

Ghosn is also alleged to have transferred, via a series of payments across four years, $14.7m from a Nissan subsidiary account to one held by a Saudi friend’s company. Ghosn’s lawyers say the currency swap transactions imposed no financial loss on Nissan, and payments were made for “legitimate and vitally important business services” for the group.

The potentially most damaging allegation landed in April when prosecutors accused Ghosn of diverting $5m from Nissan to benefit companies with ties to him and his family. While they did not name the businesses involved, an internal investigation found that about $35m in payments were made to Suhail Bahwan Automobiles (SBA), an Omani distributor with ties to a friend of Ghosn, between 2011 and 2018.

Some of this money is alleged to have been either invested in a company partly owned by Ghosn’s son or used to purchase a luxury yacht by a company owned by his wife, according to people with knowledge of the investigation.

Ghosn has maintained that the payments to SBA were “legitimate sales and marketing bonus and incentive payments” that were fully vetted and approved by several senior Nissan executives.

He also denied that the money was transferred for the benefit of himself or family members. But legal experts expect the trial to raise questions over why a man who was managing the world’s most complex car business needed several companies based in Lebanon.

At the Yokohama event in 2016, Ghosn anointed Hiroto Saikawa as co-CEO of Nissan. He believed he was installing a sidekick who would be loyal under any circumstances.

But by summer 2018, clear signs of discord were emerging. The group’s performance was flagging, particularly in its core US market. A year after taking over from Ghosn, Saikawa tried to distance himself from the lofty expansion targets set by his boss.

The final break came as the pair clashed over the future of the alliance. From early 2018, Ghosn had pushed for deeper integration, under pressure from the French government. But Nissan executives, including Saikawa, repeatedly argued the Japanese company was not ready for a full merger, fearing a de facto French takeover, and instead sought to fix a structure where Nissan only held a non-voting 15 per cent stake in its French partner.

At the heart of those discussions was Hari Nada, Nissan’s then head of legal and a lieutenant who had gained Ghosn’s deep trust. But Nada had also formed a secret team to look into the chairman’s financial dealings.

Willingly or not, he agreed to a plea bargain in summer 2018 with Tokyo prosecutors and provided pivotal information that helped them build a case against Ghosn.

Amid the initial furore around Ghosn’s arrest, his allies suggested that its roots lay in some dark collusion between prosecutors, the Japanese government and Nissan — evoking a fear that the justice system was being weaponised to bring down a foreigner and solve a corporate problem. This impression was amplified by the harsh conditions imposed on Ghosn, from his long stretches in jail to the ban on contacting his wife.

People close to Saikawa said he did not know about the internal investigation into Ghosn until early October. His work with Nada was focused primarily on how to talk their boss out of what they feared would be an uneven merger.

In the weeks ahead of Ghosn’s arrest, Nada suggested to several Nissan executives that they should enlist the support of Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), which had earlier expressed concerns about the way Paris was handling talks.

Some Nissan executives believed Tokyo could be drawn into efforts to “neutralise” Ghosn. “It was useful for Nissan to invoke government support to legitimise what they were doing,” says one person close to the Japanese government.

Ghosn’s lawyers have alleged “unlawful collusion between the prosecutors, government officials at METI and executives at Nissan” to prevent Ghosn from “further integrating Nissan and Renault, which threatened the autonomy of one of Japan’s industry flagships”.

Nada could not be reached for comment for this article. METI officials said they never intervened in Renault-Nissan merger talks and denied any involvement in Ghosn’s arrest. Nissan declined to comment on judicial proceedings.

The trial will resolve some, but by no means all, of these questions. As one person close to the prosecutors remarked to the FT, this is a truly exceptional case, created by the truly exceptional position that Ghosn had created for himself at the heart of corporate Japan.

One year after the airport arrest, a vacuum remains at the heart of Nissan. Saikawa, who oversaw a 30 per cent drop in Nissan’s share price after Ghosn’s departure, was ousted in mid-September following revelations he received excess payments. Rivalries long suppressed by Ghosn’s hold over the company exploded, with the infighting mostly focused around Nissan’s search for a new chief executive.

In his final year as CEO in 2016, Ghosn had presented an ambitious list of new projects that would define the “new Nissan”. “He showed me the list and I thought he was joking,” said Alfonso Albaisa, Nissan’s design chief. “It was suddenly an eye-opener . . . We are basically doing the whole portfolio over.”

As Nissan plans to launch eight new electric cars by 2022 and power its vehicles with its hands-off, semi-autonomous driving technology, neither Ghosn nor Saikawa will be there to show off the company’s engineering prowess.

Perhaps worse is the knowledge that the deal with FCA that Ghosn wanted so much has now slipped through the alliance’s fingers. “It was probably one of the best deals you could dream about,” says one person close to Nissan’s board. “Circumstances have decided otherwise.”

To run a global carmaker in the early 21st century — amid threats from upstart electric car brands, competition from ride-sharing companies such as Uber, and deepening changes in consumer behaviour — requires ambition, vision and decisiveness.

These qualities made Ghosn a uniquely brilliant leader for many years. But over time, and taken to an extreme, they became liabilities rather than assets. Ultimately, they proved his downfall.

>>> Barron’s Weekend Summary: positive cover story on HON; positive feature on O

Barron’s Weekend Summary: positive cover story on HON; positive feature on OSK

* Cover story: Positive on HON: Chief Darius Adamczyk effort to transform the company into an industrial-software firm could lead to billions in new business

* Tech Trader: Cautious on UBER: Ride-hailing company’s “net loss of $1.2B in the September quarter just won’t fly in a public market that is no longer giving the benefit of the doubt to companies making big promises about the future”; Uber needs to end its heavy investment mode with excessive promotions and focus on its core ride-hailing business, while divesting e-bike, e-scooter, and autonomous car bets.

* Trader: Positive on JPM, BAC, C, FITB, KEY, PNC: Bank shares stand to benefit from a shift back to value stocks because the sector, while healthier than it was coming out of the financial crisis, is still trading at prices far below those of its heyday—these banks have strong fundamentals and attractive valuations, and will return good amounts of capital to shareholders; Positive on WBA: Story says that Berkshire Hathaway chief Warren Buffett, who has been searching in vain for a large acquisition, should acquire the drugstore chain—it’s an easy-to-understand business with an inexpensive valuation, the kind of company he has always preferred.

* Profile: Mathew Kiselak and Paul Malloy, co-managers of the Vanguard High-Yield Tax-Exempt fund focuses on municipal bonds that are high yield in the sense of their actual yields, not their credit quality; about 15% of the fund’s bonds are rated below investment grade or unrated.

* Interview: Rich Greenfield, who with a few other tech analysts from investment bank BTIG recently launched a new research shop called LightShed Partners, talks about new streaming services on the way from AAPL, DIS, and T’s HBO, and the demise of the cable bundle.

* Features: 1) Positive on OSK: Shares have rebounded in recent week after concerns about a slow fiscal year, but they remain below an all-time high of $96 set in early 2018; the market’s expectations that any slowdown will short and shallow suggest that Oshkosh is undervalued, and some analysts see 20% upside as U.S. allies buy more military equipment and cyclical stocks gain steam; 2) Dividends are a key foundation for many stocks, with their quarterly payouts buffering volatility and enhancing longer-term returns, but many companies prefer to reward shareholders in other ways or simply use their cash to build their businesses; there are 78 companies in the S&P 500 that don’t pay a regular dividend on their common stock; 3) Cautious on Saudi Aramco: The oil giant’s enormous reserves and ample dividend will probably look appealing as its long-awaited initial public offering draws near, but political and governance issues—including a royalty arrangement with the Saudi government—should give investors pause.

* European Trader: Positive on CNHI: If the producer of Iveco trucks, Heuliez buses, and Case farm machinery improves profit-margin and earnings-per-share targets, its stock could get a boost when the company separates into “off highway” and “on highway” companies with separate listings.

* Emerging Markets: “Not much is certain about Chile’s future, as anti-government marches and riots lurch into their fourth week—except that the nation’s status as capitalist poster child for Latin America is in danger.”

* Commodities: The effects of the U.S.–China trade war go beyond the day-to-day dealings in commodities such as soybeans and cotton, as the ongoing conflict forces U.S. trading partners to seek new suppliers, leaving American agriculture at growing risk of losing market share in China and not being able to gain it back.

* Streetwise: Columnist Jack Hough says investors shouldn’t give up on value stocks, but should consider changing the way they look for them: dividends are a welcome sign, but total capital return, including dividends and stock buybacks, has more predictive power.

>>> Fed’s Williams (moderate, voter): expect interest rates will be very low for

Fed’s Williams (moderate, voter): expect interest rates will be very low for the foreseeable future and global growth will be modest
- Monetary policy is moderately accommodative
- Currently I am worried about persistently low inflation and that inflation expectations could come down
- The economy is in a good place with a very strong labor market and unemployment rate at 3.5% are not creating inflation
- Risks are somewhat tilted to the downside

FT : Headwinds knock Swiss watchmakers’ growth expectations

Headwinds knock Swiss watchmakers’ growth expectations
Hong Kong protests and the slow overhaul of distribution models weigh on luxury brands

The turbulence resulting from the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong might have been shrugged off by Swiss horologists had it not come at such a transformational time for the watch industry.

Many manufacturers had been banking on 2019 as a year of calm, a time to recover after a challenging 2018.

Instead they face a situation where analyst estimates point to a fall from 4 per cent global growth to near zero, and a longer-term contraction in their largest market of up to 40 per cent.

The traditionally conservative Swiss industry is struggling with two linked structural trends. The first is a shift to direct retail operations to try to improve margin and inventory management, and control branding.

The second is the need to accommodate the growing resale market in Swiss watches in the age of ecommerce. In recent years, Richemont brands Cartier, IWC and Jaeger-LeCoultre have all had to buy back stock from retailers to support pricing, for instance.

Yet the move to direct selling, away from traditional multi-brand retailers such as Watches of Switzerland and Bucherer, has been far from smooth.

The Swiss makers’ attempt to reduce the number of points of sale through which their products are available has been a slow process.

IWC now has about 100 shops but few are particularly profitable, say analysts. Limiting production is another way to control availability but that is seen as a drastic option.

“We cannot say that the problem has been solved but at least the brands have started to work on that and the impact is being seen,” says René Weber, an analyst at Switzerland’s Vontobel bank.

The pre-owned and grey market, in which genuine watches are sold by unofficial vendors, are also irritations that watchmakers can no longer ignore. The grey market, for example, often commands higher prices for coveted timepieces: a Patek Philippe Nautilus can be acquired immediately for SFr55,000 ($55,400) via an online vendor, compared with SFr26,000 and a five-year wait through a Patek store.

The travails of Baselworld, the annual Swiss flagship fair for watchmakers, serve to illustrate the industry’s repositioning efforts. The show has suffered a heavy fall in exhibitor numbers in the past two years, with Swatch Group’s exit the most notable, and this has forced organisers to overhaul their offering.

Yet while they insist this is a transitional period for the show and the wider industry, for many it remains unclear what this means for next year and beyond.

One area of consensus, at least, is the growing importance of the Asian market, which has been buffeted by the protests in Hong Kong, previously luxury watches’ biggest market.

The territory’s high-end International Finance Centre (IFC) mall has enough luxury Swiss watches on display to rival the ateliers of Geneva’s Rue du Rhône or Zürich’s Bahnhofstrasse.

This single shopping complex, featuring boutiques from IWC, Rolex, Jaeger-LeCoultre and Vacheron Constantin, among others, is indicative of the city as a whole. Audemars Piguet has seven outlets in the archipelago, and four in nearby Macau. This compares with its seven shops across North America.

So it has been with consternation that Switzerland’s watchmakers have seen Hong Kong descend into political chaos in recent months, as protesters push back against what they view as Beijing’s tightening grip on the territory.

The IFC mall has become a regular venue for flash mobs of both pro-democracy and pro-Beijing protesters. Hong Kong’s airport — home to another cluster of watch outlets, including Blancpain, Omega and Longines — has been severely disrupted.

Until the protests began, Hong Kong was the world centre for Swiss watch sales. In 2018, it powered more than SFr3bn ($3.04bn) of the SFr21bn in global sales, and was behind much of the industry’s growth that year.

“Asia is the first market for our industry,” says Jean-Daniel Pasche, president of the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry. “More than 50 per cent of our exports are destined [to go] there. The events in Hong Kong duly affect our business.”

So far, Mr Pasche notes, the numbers as a whole for the region have held up reasonably well. While September exports to Asia rose 11.3 per cent year-on-year to SFr943m, the figure for Hong Kong fell 4.6 per cent. Other Asian countries, among them China, Japan and Singapore, appear to have taken up some of the slack, with imports rising in all three markets.

Many Chinese consumers buy their watches overseas. While trouble in Hong Kong has led shoppers to abandon that market, South Korea and Japan remain attractive places to shop — as is increasingly the Chinese mainland.

Other observers are less sanguine, however. High inventories in Hong Kong mean the effect of political turbulence has not yet been fully reflected in export numbers from Switzerland — in other words exports have yet to translate into sales and are less likely to do so if disruption continues. Mr Weber believes the Hong Kong market could contract by as much as 40 per cent.

In the event of such a drop, the global outlook would be affected significantly. Earlier forecasts anticipated 4 per cent growth for Swiss watch exports overall this year — Mr Weber says the true figure could now drop to between 1 per cent and zero.

In 2014, the city endured similar unrest. “The last crisis saw declines of roughly 30 per cent and that did not last as long as this one,” Mr Weber says, adding retail sales figures do not bode well.

Provisional data released this month by Hong Kong’s statistics department for September show that the sales by value of jewellery, watches and clocks, and valuable gifts plummeted 40.8 per cent year on year, following a 47 per cent drop in August.

Luxury watch brands will be watching the data closely over the next couple of months as the severity of the situation comes into view.