FT : Gatwick airport warns investment at risk if expected 300% tax rise imposed

Gatwick airport warns investment at risk if expected 300% tax rise imposed
Plans to inject billions into upgrades including new runway jeopardised by anticipated business rates increase

Gatwick airport has warned that plans to invest billions in a new runway and airport upgrades could be jeopardised if ministers push through a fourfold increase in its business rates bill in next month’s Budget. 

The airport’s investors are preparing to make the final investment decision on a £2.2bn expansion to open a long-awaited second runway that was approved by ministers last month. They are also planning to invest around £2bn in expanding facilities and upgrades. 

The UK’s second largest airport currently pays about £40mn in business rates annually.

However, the government’s Valuation Office Agency (VOA) has indicated to the airport that rates could rise by 300 per cent, pushing its bill as high as £160mn — close to Gatwick’s annual entire staff bill of £180mn. 

“We have made crystal clear to [the] Treasury that what we are really looking for is tax treatment that incentivises us to invest,” said Stewart Wingate, who was chief executive of Gatwick airport for 15 years and is now head of the UK for Vinci airports, its major shareholder. 

“We are looking down the barrel of having a [rates] bill that quite unbelievably could be equivalent to staff costs. Frankly, that is neither fair, nor proportionate to our business,” he said. 

In its submissions to the government, the airport warned that any increase in business rates of more than 40 per cent above its current levels — which would take its annual bill to around £56mn — would eat into its profits so much that it weighs on investment decisions. 

Accounts for 2024, the most recently available, show the company made a pre-tax profit of £294mn.

“We have laid out the 40 per cent cap, to make it clear that so long as the business rates increase fall within that cap, we will push ahead running the business and investing in the business,” Wingate told the FT.

“Any increase above that level is something that will be food for thought for our investors, before we commit ourselves one way or the other,” adding the airport would have to consider “the consequences” of any final decision by the government. 

Gatwick’s £2.2bn expansion would see its backup runway moved 12 metres, to be used alongside the existing one. The airport believes the project would create around 14,000 jobs, and help to grow passenger numbers to 80mn a year.

Airports in the UK are increasingly concerned they are facing a steep increase in business rates, after a change in the methodology used by the VOA. 

The new band comes into force in April 2026. Gatwick was told by the VOA in November last year that the rate could be a six-fold increase on current levels. Its latest discussions with the agency indicate a four-fold rise. 

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to raise taxes in the Budget on November 26 to plug a hole in the nation’s finances estimated at between £20bn-30bn.

However businesses — which were hit by a £26bn increase in employers’ National Insurance last year — have warned that significant business rate increases would impact many crucial sectors, including the high street. 

In addition to its 40 per cent cap, Gatwick has asked the government for an overhaul of the way rates are set in order to give long-term certainty to its international investors. 

“It’s nigh on impossible to budget the business for the calendar year 2026, when the cost line was so “unpredictable and volatile”, Wingate added. 

The Treasury said: “Business rates valuations are set independently by the VOA. We support those hit hardest by revaluation increases and continue to engage with the sector on their concerns.”

FT : Is the Fed certain to cut interest rates next week?

Is the Fed certain to cut interest rates next week?
Market Questions is the FT’s guide to the week ahead

The US Federal Reserve is all but certain to lower interest rates when it meets on Wednesday, leaving traders’ attention fixed instead on whether the central bank opts to bring to an end its three-year quantitative tightening programme.

Investors were already almost unanimous in expecting the Fed to lower rates by a quarter percentage point to 3.75-4 per cent, even before data on Friday showed US inflation rose to 3 per cent in September, below economists’ expectations of 3.1 per cent.

With a further rate cut fully priced in by the end of the year — borrowing costs were lowered for the first time this year in September — all eyes will be on whether Fed chair Jay Powell signals a halt to the central bank’s balance sheet run-off, a process known as QT.

The Fed began using massive purchases of assets to stimulate growth, a policy known as quantitative easing, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and continued doing so with a few pauses until 2022. Since then it has moved in the opposite direction, shrinking its balance sheet by $2.2tn as it drains the reserves available for commercial banks to conduct their daily business.

Earlier this month, Powell said “some signs have begun to emerge that liquidity conditions are gradually tightening” as he signalled that QT could come to an end sooner than previously expected. A day later, the cost for banks to borrow overnight secured against Treasury bonds had one of the largest single day increases this year.

“When Powell said last week that QT will likely end ‘in coming months’ we heard this as December, which he may have meant, but developments since that speech lead us to think it is now more likely that the committee will just go ahead and end QT next week,” said JPMorgan analysts. George Steer

Will the ECB change interest rates on Thursday?
The European Central Bank is all but certain to leave its policy interest rate unchanged at 2 per cent on Thursday, as it plays for time to assess the impact of the transatlantic trade war on growth and inflation. Separating the signal from the noise will be a particular challenge due to a mixed bag of economic data.

In August, Germany’s industrial production collapsed to levels last seen in 2005 as exports dwindled. But business sentiment for the wider euro area is running at its highest level in 17 months, the HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite PMI showed on Friday. Meanwhile, Eurozone inflation rose to 2.2 per cent in September, above the ECB’s 2 per cent target for the first time since April.

“The data since the September meeting has generally been on the softer side, but not soft enough to change the outlook painted by the September projections,” Morgan Stanley economists wrote in a note to clients.

Pantheon Macroeconomics warned that there was “not much for the ECB to talk about next week”, adding: “All eyes on December.” Policymakers will hold their final meeting of the year on December 18, when ECB staff will present their updated growth and inflation forecasts — key inputs for the monetary policy decision. Olaf Storbeck

Will Takaichi’s victory delay a BoJ rate rise?
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to hold interest rates at 0.5 per cent at its next monetary policy meeting on October 29-30, following fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi’s surprise victory in the contest to replace outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba this month.

Having kept interest rates at ultra-low levels for years, the BoJ has since March last year been gradually trying to raise the cost of borrowing in an attempt to normalise monetary policy.

It last raised rates in January this year, but US President Donald Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs then forced the central bank into an extended pause.

However, with a US-Japan trade deal finalised in July and hawkish signals from policymakers, by late September markets were pricing in a nearly 70 per cent chance of a rate increase in October.

Since then, there has been another twist. Takaichi’s unexpected win means BoJ policymakers are likely to put off any rise until they have greater clarity on her plans, analysts say.

“It makes sense for the BoJ to let the dust settle on the political and fiscal outlook before making the next move,” says Chris Scicluna, head of research at Daiwa Capital Markets.

Traders are now pricing in a more than 80 per cent chance that rates will remain on hold.

BoJ watchers will instead be focusing on forward guidance from governor Kazuo Ueda as well as fresh quarterly economic and inflation forecasts, which will be released alongside Thursday’s rate decision.

“Ueda is still likely to say that the BoJ is still ready to raise rates if the economy evolves as expected,” says Scicluna. “A December rate increase is still likely even if October is off the table.” Elettra Ardissino

FT : OpenAI shunned advisers on $1.5tn of deals

OpenAI shunned advisers on $1.5tn of deals
Altman tapped a handful of in-house dealmakers over his bankers and lawyers to design huge web of infrastructure agreements

OpenAI chief Sam Altman and an inner circle of executives masterminded deals worth as much as $1.5tn with little input from external advisers, despite unusual structures that tie the start-up’s fortunes to some of the world’s largest companies.

Altman largely shunned OpenAI’s bankers and lawyers to negotiate huge multiyear deals with Nvidia, Oracle, AMD and Broadcom to supply chips and other computing infrastructure.

Instead, he has leaned on a few lieutenants including the start-up’s president, Greg Brockman, chief financial officer Sarah Friar and Peter Hoeschele, recently promoted to a new role leading infrastructure financing, said people close to the company.

The unconventional dealmaking process has resulted in agreements that analysts have criticised for their lack of detailed financial terms — as well as circular structures that tie together suppliers, investors and customers.

Wall Street has rewarded OpenAI’s counterparts with big share price bumps as each deal was announced, based on the promise of hundreds of billions of dollars in income.

But Altman’s team has been focused on the technical aspects of the chips deals “first and foremost” with the financial details “coming later”, said one person involved.

OpenAI has structured its deals across multiple years, with payments linked to various milestones, giving it the option to scale back its chip orders in future if its needs to change or funding dries up.

Executives at the artificial intelligence start-up said their aim was to stimulate manufacturing and development of as many chips as possible, and that the financial specifics could be worked out later.

People close to the process describe Altman pitching bold visions for these collaborations to Friar and Brockman, whose small teams then worked out the structuring and governance.

“Sam is the visionary, but Greg and the team under him really pulled [these deals] together,” said a person close to the company. “He’s quiet and behind the scenes but Greg is the one that’s pushing when it’s not so simple.”

Brockman was part of the founding team at OpenAI in 2015. He was previously chief technology officer of fintech Stripe, dropping out of Massachusetts Institute of Technology to join the start-up.

Friar, who joined OpenAI last year from social networking app Nextdoor where she was chief executive, was also “a very strong voice” on the deals, a second person said, and was tasked with ensuring the deals can ultimately be financed by the start-up.

A former Goldman Sachs equity research analyst, who held senior finance roles at Salesforce and payments group Block, Friar led Nextdoor’s initial public offering in 2021 through a special purpose acquisition vehicle (Spac), valuing the group at $4.3bn. However, its stock price has since fallen by as much as two-thirds.

Altman has relied on former Citigroup banker Michael Klein as a financial adviser on fundraising agreements, but Klein did not work on the chip supply deals, said people close to the company.

A small team under former Deloitte consultant Hoeschele was tasked with increasing the supply of computing power to Altman’s ambitious goal of 1 gigawatt a week. They have been responsible for the finer details of recent partnerships, the people said.

The deals OpenAI has negotiated stem from a model it first tested with AI cloud provider CoreWeave in March, according to insiders.

OpenAI signed a $11.9bn deal for CoreWeave’s computing power and in exchange was handed $350mn of CoreWeave shares. The contract has since expanded to more than $22bn, while the data centre operator’s shares have tripled in value.

In many cases, the subsequent deals started with chip companies approaching OpenAI about working together, the people said. The open-ended agreements have relied on trust between Altman and his counterparts.

Altman has turned to direct employees rather than advisers in an effort to streamline dealmaking and make negotiations less adversarial, said a person with knowledge of the situation.

Neither Nvidia nor OpenAI sought external advice on their transaction in which Nvidia agreed to invest up to $100bn in OpenAI in exchange for it spending as much as $350bn on 10GW of chips, according to people close to both companies.

“Sam and Jensen have a long-standing relationship and talk constantly,” said a person close to the deal. “That one was very much them.”

A deal with AMD came together, after several years of talks about designing a new chip specifically for OpenAI’s use, when AMD chief executive Lisa Su “had another bite at it and said what are the terms we can do”, a person involved in the process said.

AMD granted the start-up warrants to purchase up to 10 per cent of the company for just 1 cent a share, in return for buying 6GW of chips. Law firm Sullivan & Cromwell advised OpenAI on the structure of the share purchases.

Meanwhile, OpenAI’s $300bn five-year partnership with Oracle began when Oracle’s original customer for a data centre being built in Abilene, Texas, pulled out in mid-2024, said a person close to the process.

Clay Magouyrk, then head of Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, approached OpenAI, which swooped on the site, the person said.

Altman is also expanding his roster of advisers. He hired Mike Liberatore, formerly chief financial officer of Elon Musk’s xAI, in September as business finance officer to lead financing for its push into AI infrastructure; he is expected to be crucial to future deals.

>>> Barron’s Weekend Summary

Cover:
-Uncle Sam is becoming America's most powerful investor, taking big stakes in companies to strengthen supply chains and generate revenue for taxpayers. This shareholder activism has bipartisan support, suggesting it will likely outlast President Donald Trump's administration. The US is pushing the boundaries of its legal authority to invest billions of dollars in a growing number of companies in return for stock. A third driving force is to beat China, whose control over some materials and manufacturing processes has exposed critical national security weaknesses for the US amid trade tensions. Under Trump, the government has taken stakes in chip maker Intel and critical minerals firms such as MP Materials and Lithium Americas. Some company boards are clamoring to take on the government as a shareholder, while others are wary of giving up equity or control in exchange for permits or approvals.
Interview:
-Dave Bozeman, CEO of C.H. Robinson Worldwide, is a Midwestern-based executive with a background in engineering management and manufacturing design. The company, founded by Charles Henry Robinson, arranges for goods to be shipped via planes, trucks, ships, and rail. Bozeman's company has gained 41% since Bozeman became CEO in June 2023, trailing the S&P 500's 53% gain. The stock has gained almost 40% over the past six months, while the index has climbed 23% higher due to increased profitability. The company's strong performance came after an unexpected 20.8% increase in second-quarter earnings, despite revenue decreasing 8.0% to $8.2B. Investors are expected to see more growth when C.H. Robinson reports its third-quarter earnings.
Tech Trader:
-Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg is focusing on disrupting the artificial-intelligence industry by finding creative private financing to fund its capital commitments and reshaping his staff. The company is on track to spend around $70B this year on new AI data centers, with more promised. Meta is buying all this computing capacity for its own use, not to rent it out to customers in the cloud. Despite capital expenditures weighing on Meta's financials, operations continue to excel, with operating profits up 38% in the second quarter. The company added over $10B in new debt last year, and in the second quarter, its debt and lease liabilities exceeded its cash and short-term investments for the first time.
The Trader:
-Microsoft's stock has been largely ignored since its last earnings report, but a "cloudy" outlook could help it regain momentum. The company's fiscal first-quarter 2026 results are due on October 29, and Wall Street forecasts a nearly 11% increase in earnings, driven primarily by Microsoft's Azure cloud-computing unit. Analysts expect revenue in that division to surge more than 30% from a year ago. Microsoft's partnership with artificial-intelligence leader OpenAI, the developer of ChatGPT, is expected to improve Azure's outlook further in the coming years. The stock is worth about as much as its Redmond, Wash.-based competitor.
-Investors are increasingly favoring junk stocks with poor fundamentals and exorbitant valuations over quality companies with healthy sales and earnings growth, solid balance sheets, and attractive prices. Goldman Sachs reported a 24% surge in heavily shorted stocks in the past month. The small-cap Russell 2000 index has seen a 10.6% increase over the past three months, more than doubling the 4.2% rise in the Invesco S&P 500 Quality exchange-traded fund. However, 40% of the Russell 2000 companies are losing money. Analysts at Kailash Capital Research argue that durability beats drama over time. Sticking with durable, high-quality stocks is challenging, especially when speculative markets make winners out of new objects. Retail investors are making up a larger share of daily trading volume, similar to the late 1990s dot-com bubble.
Features:
-Beijing's five-year plan for 2026 to 2030 focuses on economic, scientific, technological strength, national defense, and international influence. The plan, outlined in the Communist Party's Central Committee's Plenum, could further fuel tensions with the US due to the ongoing trade and export control fight. The plan aims to boost domestic demand and improve people's well-being, but also focuses on technology. The plan will be approved at the National People's Congress meeting in March.
-Progressive, the No. 2 U.S. auto insurer, has seen its stock price fall over 20% since its 1971 IPO, with shares flirting with a 52-week low. Despite rapid expansion, Progressive's growth has been slowing, with automobile insurance policies increasing 15% year over year in September. Pricing pressure is also affecting the company, with auto insurance prices increasing by double digits in 2023 and 2024, but a 0.3% decline in premiums in September. Progressive and other auto insurers are also grappling with increasing costs to repair damaged cars. Combined, these factors suggest that Progressive's growth could slow further, with profit margins expected to decline in 2026, resulting in lower earnings relative to 2025. However, Progressive still has advantages in technology and data, making it the industry leader. The stock is reasonably priced, with projected 2025 earnings of nearly $18 a share and estimated 2026 profits of $16.55 a share.
Europe:
-Moody's has lowered its outlook on French government bonds to Negative from Stable, following S&P's downgrade of French bonds to A+ from AA- on October 17. Moody's cited the country's political instability as a risk to the government's ability to address key policy challenges such as an elevated fiscal deficit, rising debt burden, and durable increase in borrowing costs. France has been trying to reform its pension system and get its deficit under 5% of GDP, but has failed to agree on a budget. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned after just one month on the job, following François Bayrou's nine-month resignation over his plan to cut the budget by EUR 44B. The inability of France to effectively govern has caused 10-year bond yields to rise from 3.186% at the end of 2024 to 3.436%, higher than those of Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain.
Emerging Markets:
-No update
Commodities:
-Rare-earth stocks have experienced losses due to the US's move away from reliance on China for minerals, which are crucial components in electric vehicles, military equipment, and chips. President Trump and Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signed a critical-minerals agreement to unlock more capital for the sector, including an $8.5B project pipeline. The deal is seen as a significant step towards reducing risk and boosting growth in the rare-earths industry, which has seen rapid expansion in demand compared to 2014. The deal also includes over $3B in critical-mineral projects over the next six months, with recoverable resources estimated to be worth $53B.
Streetwise:
-No Update

>>> weekend papers summary

FINANCIAL TIMES
-US and Chinese officials have started high-stakes trade talks in Malaysia, marking the beginning of a summit with President Xi Jinping in Asia. The talks, which will shape the outcome of the summit, are taking place after Beijing announced sweeping export controls on rare earths, prompting Trump to threaten an extra 100 per cent tariff on Chinese imports from November 1. The talks come a day after the US trade representative's office launched a probe into whether Beijing complied with a trade deal agreed in Trump's first term, potentially leading to further duties on Chinese imports. Trump is heading to Malaysia to meet with Xi on the first leg of a week-long Asia trip.
-In just nine months, US Treasury Secretary Michael Maga has endorsed Trump's aggressive tariff policies, overhauled the Federal Reserve, and introduced a new era of deregulation and tax cuts. He has also brought Maga to the US Treasury to probe left-leaning organizations suspected of fueling political violence, including those affiliated with George Soros. Bessent is also orchestrating a multibillion-dollar US rescue package for Argentina to support President Javier Milei, Trump's libertarian ally in Latin America. He has spoken to the Financial Times twice this month, including before announcing US sanctions on Russian oil exporters and a trip to Asia to resolve trade tensions with China.
-The Tony Blair Institute, a not-for-profit set up by former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, is undergoing a major restructuring, including staff lay-offs, as it seeks a more sustainable funding model. The institute, which advises nearly 50 governments worldwide, has announced a new stage of its journey, including changes in senior management. The new leadership includes the appointment of a new finance chief and operating officer, as well as plans for a regional managing director in Europe. The TBI will now focus on four global functions, with an emphasis on AI and innovation, with the appointment of a new chief AI and innovation officer, Benedict Macon-Cooney. The changes come as the not-for-profit, which undertakes commercial consulting to fund pro-bono work for governments, suffered deepening losses last year.
-President Trump has outlined a fundraising initiative for the White House ballroom, which would not require the destruction of existing federal property. The project, which would not require the destruction of existing federal property, has been supported by tech giants Amazon, Google, and Meta, as well as companies seeking regulatory relief or policy changes from the Trump administration. Alphabet subsidiary YouTube has pledged its $22M settlement with Trump over the suspension of his account in 2021 to be donated to the ballroom fund. Lockheed Martin, the US government's largest defense contractor, has pledged $10M to the project, pledging to make the addition to the people's house a powerful symbol of American ideals.
-Artificial intelligence (AI) is a powerful tool that can solve complex human challenges. However, it also poses significant dangers, including job losses, misinformation, and the risk of losing control of AI as it progresses. There are no international norms or sustained technical and legal processes in place to address these issues. As the CEO of a tech company that heavily uses AI, the lack of effort to address the existential challenges it poses is astonishing. While AI has the potential to solve many problems, it is crucial to address these issues to ensure its continued development and use.
-Donald Trump has triggered global trade turmoil by approving new tariffs on China and expressing anger at Canada. The US trade representative's office is investigating whether Beijing complied with a trade deal during Trump's first term, potentially leading to further duties on imports from China. This investigation could increase tension between the world's two largest economies in the run-up to the US-China summit. The probe could allow Trump to impose new tariffs on Chinese imports if the Supreme Court strikes down levies imposed on Beijing.
-A gun shop in Arizona secured a $1bn order of ammunition for Ukraine in 2022, covering an armoury worth more than Estonia's annual defence budget. OTL Firearms, a small gun shop, had no export record, large storage facility, or expertise to take state-scale orders. Ukraine wired €17mn upfront but never received a single round of ammunition from OTL's then 30-year-old owner. A US federal judge has ordered OTL to repay the full sum, plus interest and legal fees, bringing its liability to more than €20M. The June 2022 contract called for the delivery of 10mn rounds of 23mm anti-aircraft shells, 56,000 Grad rockets, 24,000 mortar bombs, and a vast inventory of other Soviet-standard munitions.
NEW YORK TIMES
-Speaker Mike Johnson has put the House on an indefinite hiatus for the second month, causing a decline in the role of Congress and stifling the speakership. This move, driven by political expedience, could have significant consequences for the institution that has already ceded much of its power to President Trump. Johnson, who has little influence over his own members, has chosen to become subservient to Trump, a departure from past speakers who sought to act more as a governing partner with the president. Trump has joked about being both the speaker and the president, raising concerns about sharing private conversations.
-The Trump administration is planning a shake-up at Immigration and Customs Enforcement, aiming to replace senior leaders in field offices across the country. The move is a response to the slow pace of deportations, which is falling short of President Trump's goal of over a million by the end of his second term. The plans, which involve reassigning about half a dozen field office leaders, have not been finalized. The administration is still trying to meet Trump's demand for crackdown on immigration, despite his efforts to secure the border.
-About 42 million low-income Americans are set to lose access to monthly nutrition assistance in November, after the Trump administration said on Friday that it would not reconfigure the budget to provide benefits during the government shutdown.The decision, described in an Agriculture Department memo, appeared to contradict earlier guidance from the agency that said it could tap into leftover emergency funds. The move raised the risk of some of the nation’s poorest families being unable to buy food in a matter of days. Dozens of states have warned that they cannot provide benefits next month, and at least two have already paused delivering them, prompting a surge of demand at food banks and eliciting anxiety among recipients. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, provides one in eight people in the United States with money to buy food. Those benefits, often referred to as food stamps, average about $187 per month and cost the federal government $8B monthly. The shutdown has put funding for the program at risk. But SNAP maintains a reserve, currently estimated to be about $5B, which can help cover emergencies and shortfalls.
-Unusual Machines, a Florida-based drone company, has won its largest contract from the Pentagon, as the US government expands its procurement of drones. The company, which has a $4mn stake in Trump Jr., has been contracted to manufacture 3,500 drone motors and other drone parts. The US army plans to order an additional 20,000 components from Unusual Machines next year. The acquisition is believed to be the largest order for Unusual Machines parts from the US government to date, but the value of the contract has not been disclosed. Shares in Unusual Machines jumped as much as 13% on Friday. Trump Jr.'s stake in Unusual Machines was disclosed in November 2024.
-President Trump is set to visit Malaysia on Air Force One, where he will meet with China's top leader, Xi Jinping, and the region is undergoing a new kind of superpower rivalry. The rivalry is centered on not only troops and warships but also supply chains, ports, and data centers. Governments across Asia are increasingly being pressured to pick sides, and countries caught in the middle, like Thailand, Singapore, and Indonesia, must weigh how to benefit from the competition without being held hostage. Countries in the region want to avoid being seen as pawns for the U.S. and P.R.C.
-Russia and Ukraine are engaged in a parallel war on each other's energy assets, which could force them to negotiate more than any international diplomacy. The US and Europe have announced new sanctions on Russia's oil industry, while Ukraine has been implementing its own "long-range sanctions" through drone strikes. Russia targets Ukrainian electricity and gas infrastructure, aiming to cripple Ukraine's ability to function and sap its people's will to abide the war. Analysts believe both sides view their energy attacks as a strategic lever to break the stalemate in a conflict that has lasted nearly four years.
-Ivory Coast's long-time president, Alassane Ouattara, is facing a potential extension of his rule in an upcoming election. Ouattara, who has been in power for 15 years, is accused of using his authority to bar opponents and has criticized his crackdown on dissent. Voters in the world's largest cocoa bean producer face a choice between renewal and continuity. Despite a major political and economic turnaround in the last decade, Ouattara's crackdown on dissent remains a concern.
NEW YORK POST
-The Pentagon has accepted an anonymous $130M donation to cover military paychecks during the government shutdown, an unprecedented move that has sparked questions over its legality. President Trump announced the gift, stating that "a friend" sent a check to make up for what he called a "Democrat shutdown." The donation was made under the condition that it be used to offset the cost of service members' salaries and benefits. The Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said the donation was grateful for this donor's assistance after Democrats opted to withhold pay from troops. The contribution came as millions of federal employees face missed checks and shuttered offices on day 24 of the partial government shutdown, the second-longest in US history. Experts warned that the administration may not be able to legally disburse the money without congressional approval.
-Ford and General Motors have praised President Trump for reducing tariffs on big and midsized trucks from other countries. Ford CEO Jim Farley slashed its expected tariff costs by $1 billion, down to about $2 billion. General Motors CEO Mary Barra also thanked Trump for the important tariff updates. Ford reported adjusted earnings per share of 45 cents, above expectations of 36 cents. The company's turnaround program, Ford+, has been praised for its performance in the quarter, demonstrating consistent improvement. The levies are expected to make American alternatives more competitive. Ford CEO Jim Farley thanked Trump and his team for the tariff updates. General Motors also cut its projection for the levies' impact by half a billion, to between $3.5 billion and $4.5 billion. Both Ford and GM reported earnings that beat Wall Street estimates across the top and bottom lines.

Barron's : Meta, Microsoft, and Others Need Power. These Utility Stocks Will Ben

Meta, Microsoft, and Others Need Power. These Utility Stocks Will Benefit.

Artificial intelligence’s power demands are driving growth for regulated utilities, as data centers require new power plants.
Analysts project 8.8% aggregate annual earnings per share growth for utilities through 2027, up from 7% this year.
Mergers and acquisitions are anticipated in the utility sector, with smaller providers like AES and Avista being potential targets.

Regulated utilities are headed for a new era of growth, given the power that artificial intelligence requires. Look for some smaller providers to receive merger and acquisition offers.

The root of the story is that AI requires hyperscalers— Microsoft, Oracle, Meta Platforms, Alphabet, Amazon.com —to build more data centers, which require power. This means utility providers must build new power plants, which they monetize by agreeing with their states to earn a certain rate of return on. As they grow their plants, or what industry folks call their “rate bases,” they will grow earnings.

Earnings growth will increase moderately. McKinsey & Company forecasts data center capacity can grow by just over 20% annually through 2030. The total rate base growth for utilities will be much lower than that because a chunk of their rate bases are still in the slower-growing residential businesses.

But data center demand should still drive growth a bit higher for many years to come, especially because plant build-outs will take longer than data center completions. Analysts expect companies on the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund to grow earnings per share, in aggregate, by 8.8% annually through 2027, according to FactSet, up from 7% this year.

The whole picture makes M&A in utilities likely, especially because there are about 3,000 electric utility providers in the U.S., according to the Transportation Department. Through the first half of this year, 24 power and utility deals happened, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers, up from 17 in the same period last year. Plenty more are possible, given the number of utilities out there.

More deals could come in the form of mergers or purchase offers from larger utilities because of the potential synergies. Sure, creating revenue synergies, which is when a combined company uses its scale to create higher revenue than the sum of its parts, may prove difficult because utilities are regulated. States don’t want to raise costs for consumers more than they have to. But cost synergies are easier, meaning a combined company could eliminate redundant costs and drive higher profits than the two stand-alone entities could achieve.

That’s one of the potential drivers behind more deals, says Gabelli Funds portfolio manager Tim Winter, who expects more “consolidation” in the sector.

Winter says utilities could also attract buyers from private equity or infrastructure investment funds. They like the growth potential of the sector. They can’t easily achieve synergies, given that they’re not utility companies themselves.

Blackstone’s infrastructure business agreed in May to buy the currently $6 billion TXNM Energy, owner of Public Service Company of New Mexico, for $61.25 a share in cash, which sent the stock up 7% on the announcement. The stock currently trades at $57, and the two parties are waiting for regulatory approval, with an expected close in the second half of 2026.

The other candidates to receive offers are smaller utilities where buyers can finance a purchase. A bunch that Winter listed as possibilities are AES, Idacorp, Avista, and Portland General Electric, which all have market capitalizations below $10 billion.

Avista, with a $3.1 billion market cap, is interesting. It serves Oregon, Montana, Idaho and Washington, home to hundreds of data centers. It has overlap in Idaho with Idacorp, and with several Washington providers, some of which are privately held.

Analyst expect it to grow its asset base and its earnings per share by almost 8% annually over the coming two years. That’s up from 2% last year.

Expect deals—and stock gains for the smaller names.

Barron's : 24-Hour Stock Trading Is Coming—and Wall Street Isn’t Ready

24-Hour Stock Trading Is Coming—and Wall Street Isn’t Ready
Extended trading could change everything from staffing models to market volatility. What happens when a bank collapses at 1 a.m.?

Wall Street employees agree that 24-hour trading is inevitable. That doesn’t mean they’re happy about it.

For years, investors hoping to trade U.S. equities on major exchanges were confined to the traditional hours of 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET, five days a week. Some exchanges also offered “extended hours,” starting at 4 a.m. and ending at 8 p.m.

But soon, round-the-clock equity trading will be the new normal. The New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, and the London Stock Exchange are all weighing plans to extend weekday trading deep into the night. Robinhood Markets, Interactive Brokers, Firsttrade, and Charles Schwab all already offer 24-hour trading five days a week for many stocks. And a key market infrastructure provider, the Depository Trust & Clearing Corp., says it is preparing to accommodate round-the-clock trading as soon as the second quarter of 2026.

For now, the weekend is still off limits. But finance professionals across Wall Street are watching the advance of 24-hour trading with trepidation. They wonder: Will asset managers need to staff their offices at midnight? Will nighttime liquidity harm retail investors? What happens if a bank collapses at 1 a.m.?

Jenny Hadiaris, head of North America electronic execution at Citigroup, says that while retail clients are excited about round-the-clock trading, “institutional investors have been a lot more tepid on this.” She adds, “It’s a huge lift. It’s a massive lift for the Street.”

Financial advisors also see potential trouble ahead. “Imagine going through Covid-19, the fastest drop in history, with a market that never closes,” says Peter Mallouk, president of Creative Planning, a large wealth manager. “We are not staffed for round-the-clock client assistance.”

The Push for Round-the-Clock
Exchanges are moving to round-the-clock trading for many reasons. They want to cater to Asian retail investors, who are increasingly interested in big-name U.S. stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft. They are following the lead of cryptocurrency and commodities markets, which already trade continuously. And they want to encourage more foreign companies to list their stocks in the U.S.

Some wonder whether the appetite is even there. Just 11% of overall trading volume in 2025 took place outside the traditional 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m., according to Nasdaq. Trading from 8 p.m. to 4 a.m. is even thinner, accounting for only 0.2% of total volume.

But some traders and exchanges are hoping that NYSE and Nasdaq’s moves will induce additional activity. “Us coming into the market will likely unlock additional demand,” says Chuck Mack, senior vice president for North American markets at Nasdaq.

If that demand materializes, it could be a tremendous boon for traders and exchanges, since both typically profit when more people are buying and selling stocks. But when there is no closing bell, it could also disrupt life on Wall Street. “It doesn’t matter what your view is,” says Hadiaris. “There’s pros. There’s cons. It doesn’t matter—it’s coming.”

Wide Spreads and Flash Crashes
In conversations with Barron’s, more than a dozen financial professionals voiced a variety of concerns regarding the impact of 24-hour trading—though they also stressed that the change is inevitable.

Many worry about liquidity and execution. When few participants are trading, market makers must hold on to shares for longer. To compensate for the increased risk, they widen their bid/ask spreads—the gap between the cost of buying and selling shares. At night, when almost no one is trading and not all market makers are offering their services, spreads can be unusually wide.

If unsuspecting investors place orders at night when spreads are broad, they will effectively receive worse prices than if they wait for daylight.

“A lot of people don’t realize that they’re likely to do far worse in terms of price if they’re going to trade overnight,” says Benjamin Schiffrin, director of securities policy at Better Markets, an advocacy group. Schiffrin believes that if overnight trading is conducted on exchanges, spreads could narrow somewhat, but far more retail investors would be exposed to the risks.

Low liquidity wouldn’t just harm individual investors. If an investor places a large sell order and there are few buyers available, prices could fall, potentially triggering additional automated selling. “There could be many flash crashes,” says Lynn Challenger, global head of trading at UBS asset management. When the market is thin, anybody buying or selling at the wrong moment could lose their shirt.

In the short term, many trading experts expect liquidity to be extremely thin between 8 p.m. and 4 a.m. But volumes could pick up when big events occur, like a presidential election or geopolitical crisis.

Pressure on People and Plumbing
Many traders and investors have come to appreciate the closing bell. After 4 p.m., they have ample time to clean up their books, meet with co-workers, schmooze with clients, and grab some sleep. While asset prices technically move overnight, the tape is out of sight and volume is thin.

In a continuously trading world, stock-price movements would always be in view. “I think for the equities traders, it’ll be a new level of stress and anxiety because they will never get a break,” says John Shammas, chief growth officer at DriveWealth, a financial-technology company that helps investors operate overnight. “For the futures and options traders, they’re used to this” because those assets already trade at nearly all hours.

Investors who enjoy an evening cocktail aren’t the only ones who rely on the closing bell. Currently, exchanges and brokers use the dead of night to handle a host of rarely thought-of functions. Trades must be settled, closing prices recorded, stocks split, mistakes reversed, and dividends paid. In a round-the-clock world, it’s still unclear how the market plumbing will operate.

“Most broker-dealers are used to having a six-plus-hour period when they can do all their corporate action processing,” says Shammas.


Staffing is an obvious issue. “If the market’s going to be open, regardless of whether there’s a lot of liquidity or not, it could create price risk for investors,” says Michael Cyprys, an equity analyst at Morgan Stanley. Someone will need to be awake to manage that risk, at least at firms with demanding clients.

The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, a trade group, noted in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that “overnight on-exchange trading will require additional staffing at regulators, firms, and third-party service providers” to monitor systems and respond to clients. The trade group asked: “Who pays for these increased costs?”

Those costs could fuel further consolidation. Many large traders and asset managers already have staff awake at all hours. If a price moves while New York is asleep, employees in Singapore are able to respond. But smaller firms without global presences will be out of luck.

Who Will Benefit?
Many finance professionals are also wondering what might happen when market-shifting news happens during the wee hours. On the one hand, overnight exchange trading will allow more asset managers to respond to events in real time, so their portfolios will always reflect their views on current information. On the other, overnight trading—especially when more retail investors get involved—could cause investors to respond impulsively. Rather than waiting until morning, when cooler heads may prevail, investors could jump into the fray right away.

“It heightens the probability that you get an emotional response to market events,” says Kristi Mitchem, a founder of wealth manager &Partners who was previously CEO of Wells Fargo asset management.

If investors react impulsively, the people who benefit will be the professionals: the hedge funds, proprietary traders, and algorithmic funds who already dominate pre- and postmarket trading and can take advantage of irrationally priced assets.

“My view of 24-hour trading is it has little benefit,” says Victor Haghani, a wealth manager who co-founded Long-Term Capital Management. “It’s just going to facilitate a greater redistribution of wealth from retail speculators to proprietary traders.”

The rise of 24-hour trading could also privilege high-speed, computerized operations. Under the current system, there is little benefit to reading a news release at 8 p.m. as opposed to 8:05 p.m. All investors have to wait until the morning to place their trade, giving everyone ample time to receive and digest information. But if the exchanges are open when news arrives, reaction time may become more important. Using machine learning and web scraping tools to consume information—already par for the course for some funds operating in the daytime—could become even more important.

A senior trading executive at a large U.S. bank noted that overnight trading could exacerbate market contagion. The executive observed that, during the collapse of Bear Stearns in March 2008, regulators and executives had several nights and a weekend to organize a bailout and sale of the beleaguered bank. That breathing room may soon be in short supply.

“Imagine if when GameStop was happening, the markets were open 24/7,” says Better Markets’ Schiffrin. “I think it was hard enough for the SEC and others to understand what was transpiring in the market then.”

Skeptical of the benefits and wary of thin liquidity, many investors say they are planning to stay away from overnight trading and expect others to do the same. “Buy-and-hold and institutional investors would probably sit on the sidelines,” says Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street.

That could create a chicken-and-egg scenario. If institutional investors don’t provide overnight liquidity, then trading volumes will remain low, making nighttime trading less appealing to institutional investors. The graveyard shift will become the domain of retail investors and specialized firms.

But competitive pressure may compel asset managers and traders to build overnight capabilities anyway. “If I don’t get that type of service from one counterpart, I will go to the next one who provides it,” says Vineer Bhansali, founder and chief investment officer of LongTail Alpha, a hedge fund. “We’re talking about millions of dollars of opportunity loss.”

Overnight trading will catch on, Shammas predicts. “This is going to be a feature like fractional shares, where it’s going to be something that everyone has over the next five years.” Some brokers may never be able to support 24-hour monitoring due to technical inefficiency, he says, “but customers will demand and expect it.”

What Investors Should Do
How should investors prepare for continuous trading? It’s a question many on Wall Street may have to answer—soon. For most investors without vast tools at their disposal, the optimal strategy remains buy and hold. Trying to time the market is perilous; timing the market when spreads are wide is even worse.

But LongTail Alpha’s Bhansali says investors should have a plan to rebalance their portfolio if market disruptions happen overnight.

When Bhansali started his Wall Street career more than three decades ago, repositioning a portfolio was a lengthy process. “Going back to 1994, it used to take months,” he says. “In 2008 to 2010, it was weeks. And then, suddenly, time started to get compressed,” he says. “Now, it has gone from minutes to seconds.”

He sees 24-hour trading as an extension of this broader acceleration. In a world where news happens at all hours, portfolio managers need to be ready to respond within seconds, and trades need to be pre-staged. “When the event happens, all you can do at that point is literally route the trades,” he says.

The old daytime trading system—developed at a time when stocks needed to be traded in-person—looks increasingly quaint. “It’s silly that the market closes at all,” says Creative Planning’s Mallouk. “But I think it will be unfortunate, in the sense that the market is a point of stress for a lot of people. And having it go nonstop, all the time, will make for a lot more anxiety.”

WSJ : The NBA Made a Big Bet on Sports Gambling—and It Just Blew Up

The NBA Made a Big Bet on Sports Gambling—and It Just Blew Up
Commissioner Adam Silver had been one of the earliest proponents of legalized betting. Following this week’s arrests, it has led to an existential crisis for his league.

  • Federal agents arrested NBA player Terry Rozier and others in an illegal betting scheme, despite a prior NBA investigation finding no violations.
  • The probe implicates current and former players and coaches, including Chauncey Billups and Damon Jones, in insider trading and rigged poker games.
  • NBA commissioner Adam Silver, an early advocate for legalized sports betting, now faces a crisis highlighting the vulnerabilities of widespread gambling.

When federal agents announced charges against more than 30 people involved in a sprawling gambling probe on Thursday morning, the specifics of the case were gripping.

There were underground poker games, X-ray tables, tips whispered to bettors about where to put their money in upcoming professional basketball games.

But for the NBA, the general picture that emerged—at a Brooklyn press conference across the East River from the league’s Fifth Avenue offices—was much more chilling. Prosecutors unveiled an indictment that featured an active player, a retired one and a current head coach spilling secrets to illegal gamblers.

It was a “fraud,” FBI Director Kash Patel said, “that these perpetrators committed on the grand stage of the NBA.”

It’s also an existential threat to professional sports, and perhaps the defining crisis of Adam Silver’s tenure as NBA commissioner. Silver was an early proponent of legalized sports gambling in the U.S. and had long argued that legal betting would have the positive effect of bringing criminal behavior—such as manipulating and fixing games—into the light.

Still, Thursday’s arrests showed the vulnerability in Silver’s argument. Technology has turned gambling into a widespread habit on a scale too vast for any league to police. Every fan now has a casino in their pocket, and the number of bets per game has grown exponentially, putting sports leagues in the same boat as social-media companies trying to root out inappropriate content.

The sweeping allegations, unveiled across two indictments, touched nearly every corner of the league. Terry Rozier, an active player, was charged with fraud after allegedly telling a friend that he’d be pulling himself out of a game early so the friend could bet on it. Damon Jones, a retired player and former assistant coach, was accused of participating in rigged poker games and passing along confidential team information for illegal wagers.

Chauncey Billups, a Hall of Fame player and now the head coach of the Portland Trail Blazers, was also charged with participating in illegal poker games backed by organized crime families. But the indictment further suggests that he fed insider information about his team to the betting ring.

The NBA has now placed Billups and Rozier on leave.

“I was deeply disturbed,” Silver said of the allegations while attending Friday’s New York Knicks game. “There’s nothing more important to the league and its fans than the integrity of the competition.”

For any sports league, learning that federal investigators had charged its players and coaches of colluding with gamblers would be a catastrophe. But it is especially stinging in the case of the NBA. Over a decade ago, when sports-betting apps weren’t legally available, Silver was one of the earliest and most influential advocates for legalizing sports gambling.

“Congress should adopt a federal framework that allows states to authorize betting on professional sports,” Silver wrote in a New York Times opinion piece in 2014, “subject to strict regulatory requirements and technological safeguards.”

Since then, every other major league has followed Silver’s lead. Legalized gambling quickly developed into a booming industry and sports books have flooded leagues with money through advertising, product fees and fan engagement.

It is impossible to watch an NFL or MLB game without seeing ads for gambling companies during commercial breaks. In fact, on Thursday, when a panel on ESPN’s flagship morning show discussed the charges, the network scrambled to remove an advertisement for the ESPN Bet sportsbook on the bottom of the screen.

But feeding the growth of sports gambling carried risks like those laid out in this week’s indictments. Though Rozier was investigated by the league after a March 2023 game, the NBA didn’t find any violations of its rules. Rozier played for two more seasons with the Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat, collecting about $50 million in salary until his arrest. His lawyer says he intends to fight the charges against him.

Billups was charged only over his involvement in rigged poker games, where prosecutors say he was recruited to lure in wealthy players, and pocketed a share of the proceeds. But in the separate sports-betting indictment, prosecutors allege that “Co-Conspirator 8,” an unnamed player-turned-coach whose description and career timeline matches Billups’s exactly, knew that the Trail Blazers intended to rest their best players on March 24, 2023—one day after Rozier left his game with an apparent injury.

The co-conspirator fed that information to bettors, who placed about $100,000 worth of wagers on Portland to lose that night, before the injury details were released to the public and the betting lines moved. They profited when Portland lost by 28 points. Billups’s lawyer has issued a statement denying the accusations against him, and also says he intends to fight them.

Jones, who played alongside LeBron James and later coached him in Cleveland, is also accused of parlaying his privileged position into a betting edge. The former teammates remained close and worked together in an unofficial capacity that gave Jones access to the Los Angeles Lakers, James’s current team. The government says Jones repeatedly tried to sell inside information to another member of the poker-rigging crew.

In February 2023, days after James set the NBA’s all-time scoring record, he had a sore ankle. Before he was listed as “Out” on the injury report, Jones alerted another unnamed co-conspirator. “Get a big bet on Milwaukee tonight before the information is out!”

In all, the sports-betting indictment alleges that participants in the scheme tried to leverage insider information about no fewer than four different NBA players, in addition to Rozier.

Betting crises aren’t unique to the NBA. Baseball has dealt with “spot-fixing,” where a pitcher might throw a single ball on purpose instead of a strike. The NFL has suspended a number of players for betting on games.

But basketball has proven especially susceptible to foul play. It didn’t raise eyebrows when the Blazers willingly benched their best players for a night in the hopes of securing a higher draft pick, a common practice known as “tanking.” And one booming corner of sports betting is prop bets, placed on not the score of the game but a single stat, such as how many rebounds a player might grab. Basketball, a game of constant motion, has many such prop bets to offer—or manipulate.

On Tuesday, the day the NBA season tipped off, Silver himself called for tighter regulations on betting, especially when it comes to the prop bets for lesser players.

“We’ve asked some of our partners to pull back some of the prop bets,” he said on ESPN.

Just two days later, the FBI had arrested one on a $96 million contract, an acquaintance of the league’s most famous current player, and a coach who was already enshrined in basketball’s Hall of Fame.

The night before the FBI’s press conference, Billups had chosen an unfortunate metaphor to describe how he responds to pressure.

“I do the best I can,” Billups said, “and let the chips fall where they may.”