>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Covestro (1COV TH) +0.2%
    • Covestro Raised to Buy at SocGen; PT 45 euros
  • BASF (BAS TH) -0.4%
    • BASF Raised to Buy at SocGen; PT 72 euros
  • Continental AG (CON TH) -0.5%
  • RWE (RWE TH) -0.5%
  • Lufthansa (LHA TH) -1%
    • Virus Dread Spreads With Germany on Alert After Munich Cases
  • Infineon (IFX TH) -1.1%
  • Adidas (ADS TH) -1.1%
  • Wirecard (WDI TH) -1.3%
  • Deutsche Bank (DBK TH) -3.9%
    • Deutsche Bank Rides Debt Rally as Sewing Leans on Traders
MDAX:
  • Evotec SE (EVT TH) +0.9%
  • Lanxess (LXS TH) +0.2%
    • Lanxess Raised to Buy at Berenberg
  • United Internet (UTDI TH) -1.4%
  • Rocket Internet (RKET TH) -1.4%
  • Aurubis (NDA TH) -1.9%
  • Dialog Semi (DLG TH) -2.4%
  • Siltronic (WAF TH) -4.5%
    • Watch Chip Stocks After Samsung Profit Slump, Lam Research Beat
SDAX:
  • DWS (DWS TH) +1.2%
    • DWS Investors Pour in Cash as Woehrmann’s Revamp Takes Hold
  • Wacker Chemie (WCH TH) +0.6%
    • Wacker Chemie Raised to Buy at SocGen; PT 80 euros
  • Leoni (LEO TH) +0.5%
    • Leoni Raised to Hold at MainFirst; PT 8.90 euros
  • RIB Software (RIB TH) -1.6%
  • Eckert & Ziegler Strahlen- und Medizintechnik AG (EUZ TH) -1.7%
  • S&T (GROA TH) -1.9%
  • Aixtron (AIXA TH) -2.1%
    • Watch Chip Stocks After Samsung Profit Slump, Lam Research Beat
  • Nordex (NDX1 TH) -2.2%
    • Nordex Resumed Neutral at Citi; PT 13.10 euros

FT : Latin and Greek have no place in the investment world

Latin and Greek have no place in the investment world
The industry needs to mind its language and adopt plain English

Are you frequently frustrated and perplexed by the modus operandi of financial companies? Perhaps your friends and family have reached a consensus view that financial advisers, wealth managers et cetera are personae non gratae.

You probably noticed the Latin references in that paragraph, but how many did you spot? In fact, there are four — consensus isn’t often thought of as a Latin term.

Our prime minister may well have spotted them all, having drawn on his Classics degree throughout his political career. In the past year, Boris Johnson has dropped into ancient Greek during a speech to the UN, told the radio station LBC that his favourite politician was Pericles, and referenced the Roman emperor Augustus after removing the whip from 21 Tory MPs.

As a Classics graduate, I confess to enjoying these references. But I also think they are simply a way of showing off and should be reserved for Downing Street dinner parties.

You may think dropping a Latinism makes you look clever, but when trying to communicate with the general public it is not a clever thing to do.

There’s a reason why we call them dead languages — for most people they don’t resonate at all.

Why, then, do so many firms in the investment industry insist on using Latin and Greek terms?

There is already concern about the level of jargon and acronyms in the financial world. Not everyone speaks fluent investing, yet some of the language used implies some secret world that only an elite subset can navigate.

One example is the widespread use of ex-ante and ex-post charges disclosures, referring to expected and actual costs and charges respectively. For those not familiar with Latin, ex-post means “after the fact”, as opposed to ex-ante, which means “before the fact”, or pre-sale.

They both feature in regulations called Mifid II (which stands for the second part of the Markets in Financial Instrument Directive — ironically, this regulation is designed to increase transparency in financial markets across the EU). 

Mifid II requires investment firms to explain — and I quote — all annual ex-post costs and charges related to both the financial instrument(s) and also investment and “ancillary” service(s). And yes, there goes another Latin term — this time at the hands of regulators.

Caveat emptor (let the buyer beware) is frequently used when talking about the level of responsibility that consumers take for their decisions. And it often makes its way into headlines of articles about investing intended for public consumption. I might even have been guilty of this myself, too. But what’s wrong with a simple “buyer beware”?

Meanwhile, the Greek letters alpha and beta are two commonly used measurements to gauge how fund managers perform, relative to their peers.

Alpha is the excess return (also known as the active return) that a fund gives above a market index or benchmark that represents the market’s broader movements.

Beta is a measurement of the volatility of the fund (how its performance moves up and down) compared with the market.

If that’s all Greek to you, I wouldn’t be surprised. They are widely used and yet the names do nothing to aid our understanding.

Some fund managers have been spotted putting performance into the context of an annus horribilis (horrible year) for most asset classes (Michael Browne of Martin Currie in 2018), or for their fund (Personal Assets Trust said 2013 was an annus horribilis due to its large holdings in gold).

Using such references may impress peers in the investment industry. But for the customers whose money is invested, it’s excluding and unnecessary.

Too many firms in financial services persist in this habit. And the use of one term, ad valorem — which I’ve spotted being used by some advisers, accountancy firms and wealth managers, sometimes even in the name of the firm — raises an important question. When companies use Latin to describe how they will go about charging you, are they just trying to sound clever in a bid to distract you from paying higher rates?

Ad valorem is defined as being “in proportion to the value”. It goes up and down as the value of the goods (that is, a portfolio of shares and funds) on which it is charged goes up and down.

When used as a charging basis on investments, ad valorem means that the greater the value of your investment, the more you will pay for receiving advice on it. Note that you’re not paying more because the product or service you’re paying for is bigger or better. It’s the growth on your own capital that you’re paying extra for.

In some instances, that might be tolerable. The fund manager deserves some credit when our investments rise in value — but how much of this growth was down to their skill and judgement? And what about the long-term impact of how it affects the actual value you get from their service?

The answer is that it acts as a drag on growth, especially when the effect of those fees is compounded over many years of saving. 

However, it appears that few people understand this. According to research carried out on behalf of Interactive Investor this month by Opinium, only 17 per cent of over 2,000 UK adults surveyed knew what ad valorem meant. By extension, that means a lot of people may not understand the charges they are paying on their investments and how they add up.

The alternative is to pay fixed fees in pounds and pence on your investments — intriguingly, there’s no equivalent Latin or Greek term for this that I’ve heard of. 

The investment platform that I work for charges a fixed monthly fee and you’ll find fixed annual fees of £500 to £1,000 on offer from a minority of financial advisers — but plenty of platforms and advisers charge a percentage of your investments. 

For investors with smaller sums to invest, paying fixed fees could be more painful at the outset as the charges may be higher than percentage fees. But for those with larger portfolios, fixed fees are likely to be more cost effective, as well as providing a better basis for comparison. 

Regardless of the fee structure, all investment firms should speak to their customers in everyday conversational language. And I would also throw in the challenge that everyday language should be used within the industry too. Anything that’s a barrier to understanding internally must be stopped; it either feeds through to external customer communications or there’s the danger that it might. Once you normalise the use of Latin and Greek terms within the workplace, they are more likely to creep on to the website, into brochures and email newsletters.

We’re a jargon-rich industry already. Plain English is what investors deserve.

FT : Investors split ahead of Bank of England rate decision

Investors split ahead of Bank of England rate decision
High level of uncertainty over whether bank will cut rates in Mark Carney’s swansong

Investors are facing one of the most uncertain Bank of England rate decisions in years, with markets split over whether policymakers will cut interest rates for the first time since 2016.

The nine members of the monetary policy committee must judge whether the economy has enjoyed a strong enough post-election bounce to justify keeping rates on hold, or whether continued Brexit uncertainty amid a period of weak growth justifies decisive action now.

“The Bank of England is the most interesting of the central banks in the G7 right now,” said Fabrice Montagne, chief UK economist at Barclays. “Unlike the other G7 economies, the UK is facing fundamental challenges and choices that could have a variety long lasting effects on the economy.”

Traders see Mark Carney’s last policy meeting as a cliffhanger, and are pricing in a 45 per cent chance of a cut to 0.5 per cent, prices in swaps markets showed as of Wednesday afternoon.

Market expectations have been on a wild ride: they rose from as little as 0.5 per cent at the start of January to as high as 70 per cent, before cooling in recent days.

“It is rare for market pricing to be so equivocal,” said economists at Goldman Sachs, who think the decision is “hanging in the balance”.

Dovish comments from several rate-setters set off the expectations, and while recent economic data — including labour figures and PMI surveys — have shown signs of improvement there has yet to be a definitive swing in either direction.

“Some degree of post-election bounce is evident and in our view it might be prudent to see more data before acting as soon as January,” said HSBC’s chief European economist Simon Wells. The bank expects a cut in May, rather than January.

In contrast, Deutsche Bank is expecting a move this week thanks to entrenched uncertainty over the UK’s future relations with the EU and the fact UK growth has been below potential for the past two years.

“Ultimately, we expect the MPC to favour a risk management approach to monetary policy, pulling the trigger on a January rate cut,” the bank’s UK economists wrote in a note to clients, noting that evidence of a post-election “Boris bounce” has been mixed.

Mr Carney could choose to ease pressure on his successor Andrew Bailey by pushing for a cut now, said Mr Montagne of Barclays, who noted that falling oil prices could weigh on inflation and create a fresh headache for the bank.

“Against that backdrop, a rate cut in January would clearly make it easier for incoming governor Bailey to ease into office. Mario Draghi set a precedent recently at the ECB by cutting just before handing over to Christine Lagarde,” he said.

The previous rate changes under Mr Carney had all been priced in, leaving an unusual level of uncertainty over this week’s decision, said Mike Riddell, head of UK fixed income at Allianz Global Investors.

“We believe the market has moved too aggressively to price in UK rate cuts, and anticipate the BoE will hold steady,” he said.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 30th of January 2020

>>> Up
* Air France-KLM Raised to Outperform at Bernstein
* BASF Raised to Buy at SocGen; PT 72 euros
* BillerudKorsnas Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 140 kronor
* Casino Raised to Buy at SocGen; PT 47 euros
* Covestro Raised to Buy at SocGen; PT 45 euros
* Eurazeo SE Raised to Buy at Berenberg
* Kesko Oyj Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 70 euros
* Lanxess Raised to Buy at Berenberg
* Leoni Raised to Hold at MainFirst; PT 8.90 euros
* Wacker Chemie Raised to Buy at SocGen; PT 80 euros
* X-Fab Silicon Foundries Raised to Buy at Berenberg
* Yara Raised to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT 360 kroner

>>> Down
* AFC Energy Cut to Hold at Panmure Gordon; PT 17 pence
* BioMerieux Cut to Hold at MainFirst; PT 89 euros
* EDP Renovaveis Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 11.30 euros
* Homeserve Cut to Neutral at Citi
* IG Group Cut to Hold at Liberum
* Ingenico Group Cut to Underperform at Exane; PT 85 euros
* Lenzing Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank
* NNIT Cut to Sell at SEB Equities; PT 86 kroner
* Schibsted Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 280 kroner
* Sydbank Cut to Sell at SEB Equities; PT 129 kroner

>>> Initiation
* First Derivatives Rated New Add at Peel Hunt; PT 3,100 pence
* Network International Rated New Outperform at Exane
* Nexi Rated New Neutral at Exane; PT 13 euros
* Nordex Resumed Neutral at Citi; PT 13.10 euros
* Team17 Rated New Buy at Panmure Gordon; PT 550 pence

>>> Call
* Air France Upgraded, Sector’s Virus Sell-off Overdone: Bernstein

>>> Asian Update

Asia Market Update: Nikkei Futures decline amid focus on coronavirus impact on Japan; Asian government bond yields trade generally lower amid Fed comments, China coronavirus cases and deaths continue to rise; Samsung declines amid guidance

General Trend:
- Samsung Electronics declines over 1.5% after final Q4 earnings report, expects Q1 memory demand to decline on seasonality
- Foxconn drops over 7.5% in Taiwan amid concerns about possible impact of coronavirus on production
- Apple suppliers also drop in Hong Kong
- Gaming companies trade lower by over 2% in Hong Kong
- There are concerns that the coronavirus could impact the earnings reporting season in Hong Kong
- Decliners in Japan include Electric Appliance and Marine/Transportation companies; Canon Inc drops over 4% after its earnings and guidance
- Japanese companies expected to report earnings later today include Nintendo, Docomo, TEPCO, Tokyo Electron, Nomura, Fujitsu, Kyocera, Ana Holdings and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial
- Equity decliners in Australia include Resources companies; Iron ore producer Fortescue drops over 2% after production update, said operations in China have not been disrupted by coronavirus
- Aussie gold miner Newcrest drops over 3% after production update
- None of the major Aussie banks expect RBA rate cut at the Feb 4th policy meeting
- Bank of Korea (BOK) Official: Too early to say whether impact from virus should be addressed with policy rate cut
- GBP/USD trades generally flat ahead of upcoming BOE rate decision
- World Health Organization (WHO) is expected to reconvene its emergency committee later today, to consider the merits of declaring a global public health emergency related to the coronavirus
- Companies expected to report results during the NY morning include Biogen, Blackstone Group, Dupont, W.W Grainger , International Paper, Coca-Cola, Altria, Sherwin-Williams, UPS, Valero and Verizon

***Headlines/Economic Data***
Australia/New Zealand
-ASX 200 opened -0.1%
- NCM.AU Reports Q2 gold production 551K oz v 511.6K q/q at AISC A$859/oz v $899 q/q; Papua New Guinea has withdrawn support for Wafi-Golpu JV
- (NZ) New Zealand Dec Trade Balance (NZ$): +0.5B v +0.1Be
- FMG.AU Reports Q2 Total Ore Mined 54.6Mt v 49.2Mt y/y; Ore shipped 46.4Mt v 42.4Mt y/y; launches $450M Pilbara generation project, next stage of Energy Connect program
- (AU) AUSTRALIA Q4 IMPORT PRICE INDEX Q/Q: 0.7% V 0.4%E; EXPORT PRICE INDEX Q/Q: -5.2% V -5.2%E

Japan
-Nikkei 225 opened -0.4%
- (JP) Japan PM Abe: Need to raise vigilance further due to new virus
- 5201.JP Confirms shipped some non-compliant products
- 8697.JP Reports 9M Net ¥33.3B v ¥38.4B y/y; Op ¥48.2B v ¥54.3B y/y; Rev ¥87.4B v ¥92.0B y/y; Affirms FY guidance
- 3103.JP Strength attributed to expectations for higher mask demand amid China coronavirus outbreak; shares are up over 23%
- (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥2.0T v ¥2.0T indicated in 0.10% 2-year JGBs, avg yield: -0.147% v -0.098% prior, bid to cover 4.49x v 4.69x prior

Korea
-Kospi opened -0.2%
- (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK) Official: Too early to say whether impact from virus should be addressed with policy rate cut; Too early to comment on impact from coronavirus on the economy and markets
- 005930.KR Reports final Q4 (KRW) Net 5.2T v 5.3Te; Op 7.2T v 7.1T prelim; Rev 59.9T v 59.0T prelim
- (KR) According to 38 North, North Korea missile site shows no signs of preparation for rocket or engine test - Korean press
- (KR) South Korea Feb Business Manufacturing Survey: 77 v 73 prior (largest monthly increase since March 2019); Non-Manufacturing Survey: 74 v 75 prior

China/Hong Kong
-Hang Seng opened -0.5%; Shanghai Composite closed
- (CN) China Hubei Corona virus update: 1,032 additional cases v 840 yesterday; additional deaths 37 v 25 yesterday
- (CN) China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) economist Zhang Ming: Wuhan coronavirus outbreak could cut China's Q1 GDP growth by ~1% to 5% or even lower as the virus impacts more sectors.
- (CN) China updates on Coronavirus: 7,711 confirmed cases v 5,974 yesterday; Deaths 170 v 132 yesterday
-(HK) Macau Tourism Office: 2020 Sixth Day of Lunar New Year, Jan 29th, Visitor Arrivals 21.6K, -89.1% y/y; Mainland China Visitors: 12.4K, -91.8% y/y
- (HK) Hong Kong Monetary Authority: Will maintain HK$ exchange rate stability; despite some volatility, exchange rate and interest rates have remained largely stable; will monitor coronavirus impact

North America
- TSLA Reports Q4 $2.14 v $1.62e, Rev $7.38B v $7.05Be; Guides initial FY20 deliveries comfortably exceed 500K units
-PYPL Reports Q4 $0.86 v $0.83e, Rev $4.96B v $4.94Be
- FB Reports Q4 $2.56 v $2.52e, Rev $21.4B v $20.9Be; Adds $10B increase to share buyback program
-MSFT Reports Q2 $1.51 v $1.32e, Rev $36.9B v $35.7Be
-(US) FOMC LEAVES TARGET RANGE UNCHANGED BETWEEN 1.50-1.75%; AS EXPECTED; EXTENDS REPO OPERATIONS AT LEAST THROUGH APRIL
- (US) Fed Chair Powell: change in wording around being 'near' inflation target was to make it clear that we are not comfortable with inflation consistently running below 2% target - post rate decision Q&A

Europe
- (UK) Jan Lloyds Business Barometer: 23 v 10 prior (14-month high)
- (DE) Germany Coalition has agreed to extend autoworkers jobless benefits
- (UK) Chancellor Javid to back HS2 High Speed Rail project that will link London to Northern England – press
- (US) White House econ adviser Kudlow: intensity of EU trade discussions will restart soon - Fox Business interview

***Levels as of 12:15ET***
- Hang Seng -2.2%; Shanghai Composite closed; Kospi -1.8%; Nikkei225 -2.1%; ASX 200 -0.3%
- Equity Futures: S&P500 -0.7%; Nasdaq100 -0.6%, Dax -0.6%; FTSE100 -0.5%
- EUR 1.1018-1.1007; JPY 109.06-108.84; AUD 0.6756-0.6731; NZD 0.6531-0.6505
- Commodity Futures: Gold +0.5% at $1,578/oz; Crude Oil -1.1% at $52.77/brl; Copper -1.3% at $2.53/lb