>>> What to look at today - 4th of November 2025

US stock futures dropped along with Asian shares as uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and Palantir Technologies Inc.’s earnings weighed on sentiment. Contracts for the S&P 500 fell 0.5% after the underlying index posted a modest gain Monday, even as more than 300 of its members retreated. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.7%, with Palantir declining more than 4% in extended trading on concerns about the company’s lofty valuation after a record run-up. Futures also indicated a weaker open for European shares.  Asian equities dropped 0.6%, while in South Korea, the regulator issued an unusual “investment caution” on SK Hynix Inc. shares after its 240% rally. A gauge of the dollar extended its gains to a fifth day after the greenback strengthened against most of the Group-of-10 currencies, trading at levels last seen in August. The advance came amid mixed signals from Fed officials, following Chair Jerome Powell’s warning last week that a rate cut in December isn’t a foregone conclusion. A flurry of US central bank officials offered contrasting views on the outlook for further rate cuts, with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee saying he’s more concerned about inflation than the job market. Even as US factory activity contracted for an eighth straight month in October, global stocks hovered near record highs, driven by technology heavyweights and stoking calls for broader-market consolidation. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index eased 0.4 point to 48.7, according to data released Monday. Readings below 50 indicate contraction, and the measure has been stuck in a narrow range for most of this year. Economists and policymakers are relying more on private reports such as the ISM survey for clues on the economy and job market in the absence of official data because of the US government shutdown. Friday’s scheduled employment report is also poised to be delayed as a result. Gold edged lower for a third consecutive session. Treasuries steadied, while oil fell as the market weighed OPEC+’s decision to pause output hikes. Elsewhere, shares in Australia extended their losses and the currency fell after the central bank held its benchmark rate unchanged. India’s rupee gained, pulling back from a near-record low after likely interventions by the Reserve Bank of India.  Earlier, Fed Governor Lisa Cook said she sees the risk of further labor-market weakness as greater than the chance that inflation will pick up. She stopped short of endorsing another interest-rate cut next month. Her comments echoed remarks from her colleagues who were equally noncommittal about whether the central bank should deliver a third straight rate reduction when policymakers convene in December. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said officials should “keep an open mind” about the possibility of a December cut. Governor Stephen Miran noted policy remains restrictive.  Back to Palantir, the company raised its annual revenue outlook to $4.4 billion and outpaced analyst estimates for third-quarter sales. Investors have sent the firm’s shares up more than 150% so far this year, closing Monday at a record $207.18. The company had a price-to-sales ratio of 85 as of Friday — the highest in the S&P 500 Index.  Mandeep Singh, senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said that investors likely wanted more guidance about the following year. Palantir gave a forecast for the current quarter, Singh said, but everyone wanted some sense of 2026, he said. The market reaction highlights “how stretched expectations are in the AI space,” Chanana said. “A small post-print dip says more about lofty expectations than fundamentals.” US After Hours FN +9.8%, HIMS +5.4% higher on earnings; DENN +47.4% surging on news it's to be acquired by TriArtisan Capital; SRPT -39.1% under pressure after earnings; PLTR -2% heading lower on earnings.

Nikkei -1.74% Hang Seng -0.84% CSI -1.08% Shanghai -0.77% Shenzen -1.74%

Eur$ 1.1510 CNH 7.1319 CNY 7.1272 JPY 153.80 GBP 1.3124 CHF 0.8091 RUB 81.0000 TRY 42.0710 WTI$ 60.86 -0.31% Gold 3,983 -0.49% BTC 105,460 -1.33% ETH 3,535 -1.89%

S&P -0.87% Nasdaq -1.21% EuroStoxx -0.92% FTSE -0.31% Dax -0.99% SMI -0.58%

Macro :
- Italy Oct. New Car Sales Fall 0.57% Y/y
- Yardeni Warns ‘Too Many Bulls’ Put Stocks on Cusp of a Pullback
- Travel Industry Sounds Alarm Over Government Shutdown - WSJ
- US Sees Air Safety Risks as Government Shutdown Hurts Flying
- China Regions Cut Power Bill to Datacenters With Local Chips: FT
- China Envoy Warns US Against Creating New Troubles After Summit
- UBP Is Latest Private Bank Setting Up Office in Saudi Arabia
- *SERBIA GOLD RESERVES TO ALMOST DOUBLE TO 100T BY 2030: VUCIC

Keep an eye on :
- ABF LN : AB Foods FY Adjusted Operating Profit Beats Estimates
- AKER NO : Aker 3Q NAV per Share NOK909 Vs. NOK895 Q/Q; Sees Leverage Rise
- ALC SW : Alcon Urges STAAR to Accept Offer to Amend Merger Agreement
- ATS AV : AT&S Sees FY Revenue About EU1.7B, USD May Impact 26/27 Goal
- AYV FP : Ayvens Backers Offer Stake Worth $1.1 Billion in Leasing Firm
- BAKKA NO : Bakkafrost 3Q Operating Ebit Misses Estimates
- BMPS IM : Caltagirone Gets ECB OK to Raise Paschi Stake Up to 20%: Stampa
- BMW GY : BMW Ventures shares are trading higher after securing an order worth ₹4.49 crore to fabricate and supply bow string girders in
- BSLN SW : Basilea Cresemba Europe Sales Trigger $30m Milestone Payment
- BELL SW : Bell Food Group Buys Cured Ham Producer Hermann Wein; No Terms
- BEN FP : Beneteau 3Q Sales at Constant Exchange Rates -3%
- BETA US : IPO : Electric Plane Maker Beta Technologies Raises $1 Billion in IPO
- BIM FP : BioMerieux Cuts FY Organic Sales Forecast
- BOOZT SS : Boozt Boosts FY Adjusted Ebit Margin Forecast
- BP/ LN : BP 3Q Adjusted Ebit Beats Estimates
- BCHN SW : Burckhardt 1H Ebit CHF65.5M Vs. CHF67.0M Y/y
- CPR IM : Lagfin Says 214m Campari Shares Seized, Tax Probe ‘Unfounded’
- CIBUS SS : Cibus Nordic Real Estate 3Q Rental Income EU42.0M
- CLX US : Clorox 1Q Adjusted EPS Beats Estimates
- COLOB DC : Coloplast 4Q Revenue Misses Estimates, Coloplast Sees 2026 Organic Revenue About +7%, Est. +7.49%
- COR PL : Corticeira Amorim 9M Net Income EU45.7M Vs. EU47.8M Y/y
- DEME BB : DEME, Aspiravi, Qair Make Ownership Changes in ScotWind Project
- DENN US : Denny’s Corporation to be Acquired by TriArtisan Capital Advisors, Treville Capital Group and Yadav Enterprises in $620
- EDEN FP : Edenred Presents Strategic Plan Aiming at >€5B Revenue in 2030
- LLY US : Eli Lilly calls on Europe to ditch clawback taxes on drugmakers
- EVK GY : Evonik 3Q Adjusted Ebitda Misses Estimates
- FLUO SS : Fluoguide Offers SEK100 million Shares, Fluoguide Offering of 2.7m Shares Prices at SEK38/Share
- FME GY : Fresenius Medical Care 3Q Oper Income Excl Special Items EU574M
- GEBN SW : Geberit 3Q Ebitda Misses Estimates, Geberit Boosts FY Sales Forecast
- GF SW : Georg Fischer Targets Sales of CHF4.2B to CHF4.5B by 2030
- GT US : Goodyear 3Q Net Sales Match Estimates
- GRAB US : Grab Holdings Boosts FY Adj. Ebitda Forecast, Beats Estimates
- HALO US : Halozyme Boosts FY Revenue Forecast
- HIMS US : Hims & Hers Health 3Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- HOLX US : Hologic 4Q Adjusted EPS $1.13, Est. $1.10
- BOSS GY : Hugo Boss Sees FY Ebit Low End of EU380M to EU440M
- ILTY IM : Banca Sella to Buy 50% Illimity’s Hype Stake for EU85M
- IPCO SS : IPC 3Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- KMB US : Kimberly-Clark Tanks on Deal to Buy Tylenol Maker Kenvue
- KIN BB : Kinepolis Buys Emagine at Transaction Value of $105M
- LSCC US : Lattice Falls as Adj. Gross Margin Forecast Misses Estimates
- LTMC IM : Lottomatica FY Adjusted Ebitda Forecast Meets Estimates
- MMK AV : Mayr-Melnhof 9M Net Income EU166.5M Vs. EU52.3M Y/y
- META US : Threads Passes X In Key Monthly Metric For First Time In Zuckerberg Vs. Musk Battle
- MSFT US : Lambda Reports Multibillion-Dollar Agreement With Microsoft
- NVTS US : Navitas Semiconductor 3Q Adj Loss/Shr 5.0C, Est. Loss/Shr 5.0C
- NEM GY : Nemetschek 3Q Ebitda Beats Estimates
- Nexperia : China Urges Netherlands to Constructively Solve Nexperia Dispute
- NOKIA FH : Nokia to Seek Delisting From Paris Stock Exchange
- NDX1 GY : Nordex 3Q Sales Miss Estimates
- NOEJ GY : Norma 3Q Adjusted Ebit EU3.8M Vs. EU7.5M Y/y
- NB2 GY : Northern Data Sells Mining Unit For Up to $200m
- NOVOB DC : Novo Nordisk's weight-loss drug Wegovy could soon have a new sales outlet in the U.S.
- OERL SW : Oerlikon 3Q Orders CHF396M Vs. CHF376M Y/y, OC Oerlikon Places CHF350 Million Unsecured Bonds
- OHI US : Omega Healthcare Files for $2 billion Shares ATM Offering
- ORSTED DC : Apollo to Invest $6.5b For 50% Stake In Ørsted’s Hornsea 3
- PL TR US : Palantir Boosts FY Revenue Forecast, Beats Estimates
- PHIA NA : Philips 3Q Adjusted Ebita Beats Estimates, Philips Order Intake Rises 8% on Robust Demand in North America, Philips Reiterates Confidence In Full-Year 2025 Outlook With 1%-3% Comparable Sales Growth, Adjusted EBITA Margin Up To 11.8%,
- QRVO US : Qorvo 2Q Adjusted Revenue Beats Estimates
- SFQ GY : SAF-Holland SE FY Sales Forecast Misses Estimates
- SRPT US : *SAREPTA SHARES DROP 20% AFTER RESULTS, ESSENCE STUDY MISS
- SHEL LN : Keppel, Partners Buy Remaining 49% Stake in Cleantech Renewable
- SPG US : Simon Property 3Q FFO/Share Beats Estimates
- SBUX US : Starbucks Says Boyu to Buy up to 60% in China Retail Operations
- STLA US : Canada to Launch Dispute-Resolution Process to Stop Stellantis Production Move - WSJ
- STLA US : Novonix Says Stellantis Unit Ends Offtake Agreement
- MSTR US : Strategy Plans IPO of Euro-Denominated STRE Preferred Stock
- SSABA SS : SSAB Targets Premium Offering of 65% of Shipments Around 2030
- TEF SM : Telefonica 3Q Revenue Meets Estimates
- UCB BB : UCB Gets FDA Approval for Kygevvi to Treat TK2d
- QURE US : UniQure Tumbles After ‘Surprising’ Pivot by FDA on Drug Data
- VCT FP : Vicat Delivers Small Revenue Beat in Third Quarter, Citi Says
- VNOM US : Viper Energy 3Q Average Price per BOE Misses Estimates
- WHA NA : Wereldhave Narrows FY EPS Forecast, Beats Estimates
- ZLNA NO : Zelluna Offering of 5.5m Shares Prices at NOK10/Share

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 4th of November 2025

>>> Up
* Academedia Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 125 kronor
* Aker Solutions Raised to Buy at Fearnley; PT 38 kroner
* Apple Raised to Buy at DZ Bank; PT $300
* AT&S Raised to Buy at Erste Group; PT 40 euros
* Comcast Raised to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $28
* Fortum Raised to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 18.50 euros
* Fractal Gaming Group Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 43 kronor
* Huber+Suhner PT Raised to 172 Swiss francs at Berenberg
* Moncler Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 61 euros
* Rentokil PT Raised to 300 pence from 284 pence at Berenberg
* Ryanair Raised to Buy at Peel Hunt; PT 30.75 euros
* Sobi Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 370 kronor
* TKH GDRs PT Raised to 55 euros from 40 euros at Berenberg

>>> Down
* Aasen Sparebank Cut to Hold at Norne Securities; PT 136 kroner
* AbbVie Cut to Hold at DZ Bank; PT $237
* Givaudan Cut to Reduce at AlphaValue/Baader
* Hermes Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 2,310 euros
* Ilkka Oyj Cut to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 4.50 euros
* Next Cut to Hold at Shore Capital
* Sika PT cut from 285 to 240 CHF at Berenberg
* Sparebank 68 Grader Nord Cut to Hold at Norne Securities
* Tecnicas Reunidas Cut to Neutral at JB Capital Markets
* UBS Cut to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 32 Swiss francs
* uniQure Cut to Neutral at Van Lanschot Kempen; PT $30
* X-Fab Silicon Foundries Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 6 euros

>>> Initiation
* Amrize Rated New Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 42 Swiss francs
* Asmodee Reinstated Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 160 kronor
* Capgemini Resumed Buy at Citi; PT 170 euros
* Eli Lilly Reinstated Buy at William O'Neil
* NP3 Fastigheter Rated New Buy at SEB Equities; PT 306 kronor
* SigmaRoc Rated New Hold at Berenberg; PT 120 pence

>>> Call
* Ryanair Raised at Peel Hunt on Lower Costs, Constrained Supply

FT :Jumble of tax proposals snarls up France’s painful budget process

Jumble of tax proposals snarls up France’s painful budget process

Counting every cent
French budget talks have been bogged down by a volley of contradictory amendments aimed at raising taxes on the rich, heightening the risk of the bill running aground as the country’s parliament runs out of time, writes Sarah White.

Context: Talks in France’s lower house as part of a new budget for next year have become increasingly messy, complicating Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s attempts to forge an agreement in a fragmented parliament to trim the country’s deficit.

Yesterday, lawmakers were racing their way through hundreds of proposed fiscal amendments before they pivot to tackle the welfare budget for 2026 and eventually move on to spending cuts.

But even on the tax segment alone, Lecornu’s plea to opposition parties to work together appears to be falling flat, as lawmakers from across the political spectrum have added amendments with little cohesion.

A new 2 per cent tax on holding companies proposed by Lecornu to appease the left was watered down; a property tax created by President Emmanuel Macron when he abolished a wealth tax in 2017 was amended to include yachts but no longer applies to main residences; and a form of exit tax on fiscal exiles that Macron had abolished was restored.

Over the weekend, economy minister Roland Lescure warned of “fiscal sorcery”, suggesting that some of the measures may not be constitutional — even as some opposition parties already claim victory over various taxes.

The chaos means that getting the budget through the Assemblée Nationale and the senate before Christmas, on what was already a narrow timetable, is looking increasingly out of reach. 

If the deadline lapses without a deal — or if the budget is rejected by warring lawmakers — France may be back where it started early in the autumn when Lecornu became the country’s third prime minister in a year: in crisis mode.

The prime minister has the option of ultimately passing his original proposed €30bn package of spending cuts and tax rises via decrees. But that “nuclear” option, parliamentarian specialists say, would incense the parties he has fought hard to win over, including the Socialists who have tacitly supported Lecornu until now.

Socialist party leader Olivier Faure said last night his party was willing to give Lecornu more time. He told BFMTV he saw a “narrow path” to agreeing a budget before the year-end. 

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Philips (PHI1 TH) +2.5%
    • *PHILIPS 3Q ADJ EBITA EU531M, EST. EU486.1M
  • Orsted (D2G TH) +1.8%
  • Vodafone (VODI TH) +1.6%
  • Standard Chartered (STD TH) +1.1%
  • Nemetschek (NEM TH) +0.7%
    • Nemetschek 3Q Ebitda Beats Estimates
  • Novo (NOV TH) +0.7%
  • Prosus (1TY TH) +0.5%
  • Nestle (NESR TH) +0.4%
  • Rolls-Royce (RRU TH) +0.4%
  • Fresenius Medical Care (FME TH) +0.4%
    • Fresenius Medical Care Keeps Guidance Despite Weak US Volumes
  • Adyen (1N8 TH) -1.6%
  • Umicore (NVJP TH) -1.8%
  • Raiffeisen (RAW TH) -2%
  • Fortum (FOT TH) -2.1%
  • Kion (KGX TH) -2.2%
  • Talanx (TLX TH) -2.3%
  • UCB (UNC TH) -2.5%
  • Rio Tinto (RIO1 TH) -2.7%
  • Bavarian Nordic (BV3 TH) -2.9%
  • Lufthansa (LHA TH) -3.1%

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Fresenius Medical Care (FME TH) +0.7%
    • Fresenius Medical Care Keeps Guidance Despite Weak US Volumes
  • Siemens (SIE TH) -1.3%
  • Rheinmetall (RHM TH) -1.3%
  • VW (VOW3 TH) -1.3%
  • Infineon (IFX TH) -1.5%
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) -1.6%
MDAX:
  • Puma (PUM TH) +0.1%
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) -1.6%
  • Talanx (TLX TH) -2%
  • Wacker Chemie (WCH TH) -2.1%
  • Lufthansa (LHA TH) -2.5%
  • Aixtron (AIXA TH) -2.9%
SDAX:
  • Medios (ILM1 TH) +0.8%
  • Jenoptik (JEN TH) -1.1%
  • Norma (NOEJ TH) -1.1%
    • Norma 3Q Adjusted Ebit EU3.8M Vs. EU7.5M Y/y
  • Cancom (COK TH) -1.8%
  • Deutsche PBB (PBB TH) -2%
  • SAF-Holland SE (SFQ TH) -4.8%
    • SAF-Holland SE Prelim 9M Sales EU1.31B

>>> Nanobiotix UBSGlobal Conf. 10/11, Guggenheims Conf 10/11 Stifel Conf NY13/11

Nanobiotix, société française de biotechnologie en phase de développement clinique avancé, pionnière des approches fondées sur les nanoparticules pour élargir les possibilités de traitement des patients atteints de cancer ou d'autres maladies, annonce aujourd'hui qu'elle participera à des discussions ("fireside chat") aux conférences suivantes :

UBS Global Healthcare Conference
Date : lundi 10 novembre 2025
Horaire : 23 h 00 CET / 17 h 00 ET
Lieu : Palm Beach Gardens, FL (États-Unis)
Participant : Bart van Rhijn, directeur financier et du business développement de Nanobiotix

Guggenheim's Annual Healthcare Innovation Conference
Date : lundi 10 novembre 2025
Horaire : 22 h 30 CET / 16 h 30 ET
Lieu : Boston, MA (États-Unis)
Participant : Laurent Levy, cofondateur de Nanobiotix et président du directoire

Stifel Healthcare Conference
Date : jeudi 13 novembre 2025
Horaire : 14 h 00 CET / 8 h 00 ET
Lieu : New York, NY (États-Unis)
Participants : Laurent Levy, cofondateur de Nanobiotix et président du directoire & Bart van Rhijn, directeur financier et du business développement de Nanobiotix

Les présentations enregistrées seront retransmises en direct sur la page évènements de la section Investisseurs du site Internet de la société. La rediffusion sera disponible après l'événement...

FT : America votes: five states to watch in the off-year elections

America votes: five states to watch in the off-year elections
Hundreds of polls will take place one year into Donald Trump’s second term

Voters will head to the polls across the US on Tuesday for state and local elections that will take the political temperature nearly one year into Donald Trump’s second term in the White House.

Hundreds of local government positions ranging from school board governors and city council officials to judges, mayors and governors will be voted on in dozens of states across America.

But races in the following five states will have national significance, providing the clearest signal yet of how Republicans and Democrats are faring in the eyes of the electorate one year out from next year’s midterm elections, when control of both chambers of Congress will be up for grabs.

New York
While mayoral races will take place in a number of states on Tuesday, the most closely watched contest will be held in New York City, where democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani appears on course to complete his remarkable rise from political newcomer to leader of America’s biggest city.

Mamdani, 34, shocked the political establishment in June, when he defeated former New York state governor Andrew Cuomo and incumbent New York City mayor Eric Adams, among others, in a crowded field of hopefuls in a Democratic primary contest.


Cuomo decided to run in November’s general election as an independent, but several recent polls have shown Mamdani with a double-digit lead over the former governor. The Republican candidate, Curtis Sliwa, has long trailed in the polls in a distant third place.

Mamdani is nevertheless divisive, and his policy platform, focused on affordability, with a sweeping expansion of public services paid for by tax rises for the wealthy and corporations, and pointed criticism of Israel, has exposed deep fissures in the Democratic party.

He has also been attacked by Republicans, including Trump, who has threatened to withhold federal funding for New York City if voters there elect Mamdani.



Virginia
The Virginia governor’s race takes place every four years and is among the most anticipated off-year elections in the US. Taking place one year after a presidential election, it has long been seen as a key electoral bellwether.

Four years ago, Republican former Carlyle Group executive Glenn Youngkin shocked the political establishment when he defeated longtime Democratic politician Terry McAuliffe in a state former president Joe Biden had won by 10 points just a year earlier.

But now, Democrats look poised to take back the state governor’s mansion. Former Democratic congresswoman Abigail Spanberger has consistently outpolled her Republican opponent, Winsome Earle-Sears, the current lieutenant-governor, by double digits. The margin of her polling lead is notable given Kamala Harris defeated Trump in Virginia last November by roughly six points.


Spanberger, a political moderate who was a CIA officer before she was elected to Congress in 2018, also appears to have successfully distanced herself from a political scandal involving Jay Jones, the Democratic candidate for state attorney-general.

National Review Online last month revealed Jones sent text messages fantasising about political violence against his Republican colleagues, and while he apologised for the messages, he did not drop out of his race.

New Jersey
New Jersey is the other state that holds its governor’s elections one year after the presidential vote. Four years ago, former Republican state lawmaker Jack Ciattarelli came within striking distance of defeating Democratic incumbent Phil Murphy, who won re-election by a narrow three-point margin.

This year’s contest could be even closer, with the latest polls showing Ciattarelli — now running for governor for a third time — in a dead heat with his Democratic opponent, congresswoman Mikie Sherrill.


Like Virginia, Harris defeated Trump by six points in New Jersey last November. But voters in the state complain about its high living costs and give Murphy poor approval ratings. Ciattarelli has painted Sherrill as a continuation of Murphy’s governorship, while she has sought to nationalise the race and tie her opponent to Trump.

New Jersey was among the US states with the biggest swings to Trump in last year’s presidential election. But it remains one where Democrats have a huge built-in advantage: the latest official figures show around 850,000 more voters are registered there as Democrats than Republicans.

Ciattarelli will need a high turnout from registered Republicans, and win over independents and disaffected Democrats, if he is to pull off an upset.


Pennsylvania
The largest swing state in the US, Pennsylvania is almost evenly split between Democrats and Republicans and has long been seen as a critical political bellwether. While the state’s Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, enjoys a remarkably high 60 per cent job approval rating according to the latest Quinnipiac poll, Trump won the state by nearly two points last November.

The party brands will be put to the test again on Tuesday when three Democrat-endorsed justices on the state Supreme Court will face unusually contentious votes on whether they should have their 10-year term renewed.

These so-called “retention” ballots have not been closely watched in the past, and they have rarely resulted in justices being ousted from the bench.

But this year’s votes have taken on outsized significance, with Democratic and Republican party interests pouring millions of dollars into advertising in an effort to persuade voters to their cause.

The court has ruled on issues of major national as well as state significance, and can play an important role in drawing congressional maps or certifying election results.

According to tracking firm AdImpact, Democrats have spent $13.4mn on political ads for the “retention” vote — far outspending Republicans, who have spent $2.8mn.

State and national Democrats have campaigned for a “yes” vote to retain the justices, while Republican groups, including organisations tied to billionaire donor Jeff Yass, have called for a “no” vote.

The state Supreme Court is currently balanced 5-2 in favour of the Democrat-backed justices. If all three lose, the high court would likely be deadlocked 2-2 until the end of 2027.

California
California voters will have the chance on Tuesday to approve “Proposition 50,” an amendment to the state constitution that would allow for a redrawing of the state’s congressional districts. It is being pitched by its Democratic proponents as an opportunity to send a clear rebuke to Trump and the Republican party.

The referendum was put on the ballot by California’s Democrat-controlled state legislature, and the state’s Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom, who has been among the most party’s most forceful critics of Trump.

It was drafted as a response to the efforts of Texas Republicans — at Trump’s urging — to redraw that state’s congressional map to favour their party, potentially adding five Republican-leaning seats in Congress.


The California map as proposed under Proposition 50 could add five Democratic-leaning seats to the state’s congressional delegation.

Newsom at the weekend said he was “deeply confident” the measure would pass.

“We’re seeing overwhelming understanding and recognition of what’s at stake,” he told NBC News. “[Trump] is not screwing around. He’s changing the rules. He’s rigging the game because he knows he’ll lose if all things are equal. He did not expect California to fight fire with fire.”

WSJ : Wall Street Intensifies Scrutiny of Fraud After Spate of Loan Losses

Wall Street Intensifies Scrutiny of Fraud After Spate of Loan Losses
Lenders are increasing due diligence and demanding access to more data

Alleged corporate-borrower frauds are prompting Wall Street to increase due diligence and demand more financial data from companies.
A task force of banking, investment-management and accounting firms is examining the nature of the problem and investor protection.
Recent frauds, including First Brands and Tricolor, have affected regional banks and Wall Street giants, raising concerns about systemic issues.

A string of alleged frauds by corporate borrowers is spurring a reckoning across Wall Street, sending bankers and investors scrambling to prevent future blowups.

Lenders are increasing due diligence and demanding a longer history of financial data from companies. Some are inserting conditions that permit them to do more frequent checkups before agreeing to make loans. A group of the biggest names in banking, investment management and accounting have formed a task force that will take a deeper look at the nature of the problem and how to protect investors.

The frauds that have emerged so far, which involve small to midsize companies in sectors such as autos and telecommunications, haven’t sparked widespread trouble in the market or economy. But they have generated fallout for both regional banks and Wall Street giants such as JPMorgan Chase and BlackRock, and the string of revelations has made it harder to dismiss any one case as an isolated event.

“This is sending real ripples in the credit markets,” said Colin Adams, partner at Uzzi & Lall, a restructuring adviser that works with both borrowers and financing providers. “People are really starting to ask: ‘How does this happen?’ ”

The worries emerged in late September, when the aftermarket auto-parts supplier First Brands filed for bankruptcy amid questions over whether it had pledged the same accounts receivable to different lenders. Around the same time, the now-defunct auto dealer and subprime lender Tricolor Holding also filed for bankruptcy, facing similar allegations that it fabricated or double-pledged consumer auto loans.

Since then, regional banks including Utah-based Zions Bancorp have taken losses on loans to California real-estate investors, whom they have accused of fraud. A recent bankruptcy filing also increased scrutiny of an accusation of fraud made by BlackRock’s private-credit arm against one of its borrowers, the owner of two little-known telecom-services companies.

By then, fraud was the talk of industry gatherings. One industry group, the Structured Finance Association, convened a “Fraud Mitigation Task Force,” which will meet regularly over the next few months with the goal of presenting findings at a conference in late February.

The group represents players in one part of the credit market that bundles together pools of loans that are then used to back tiers of bonds of different credit ratings. That corner of the market has only been directly affected by alleged fraud involving Tricolor.

But Michael Bright, the association’s chief executive, said that the new task force will focus on what types of fraud lenders should be looking for and what processes they should follow to detect them—findings that could be relevant to other types of lending. The effort will include representatives from across SFA’s membership, which includes Wall Street banks, asset managers and the big four accounting firms.

Since the structured-finance industry’s infamous role bundling bad loans into supposedly safe bonds ahead of the 2008-09 financial crisis, it has become more regulated and members have taken pride in their improved lending practices. That, Bright said, has added to the sense of urgency to figure out whether recent fraud “is a one-off, or something systemic.”

The collapse of First Brands in particular has brought attention to how a variety of lenders from banks to asset-management and private-credit investors have been jumping into increasingly popular asset-based finance strategies, including providing short-term working-capital financing backed by receivables.

Those strategies remain popular. But now, some of those lenders are asking to take a look at companies’ record of payments on receivables stretching back years rather than months, and inserting language into loan agreements that allow them to do more regular appraisals on the collateral, said Adams of Uzzi & Lall.

Academic studies have suggested that corporate fraud tends to increase during good, if not great, financial environments, when businesses have an incentive to fudge numbers to get funding, said Alexander Dyck, a professor at the Rotman School of Management at the University of Toronto.

In the past, increased revelations of fraud have sometimes coincided with economic downturns and increased default rates. But in this case, default rates on low-rated corporate debt haven’t been surging, and the latest data has generally pointed to a stable economy.

As a result, demand for corporate bonds and loans has remained robust in recent days and weeks, enabling continued borrowing by companies.

One pocket of weakness has been bonds backed by subprime auto loans, where Tricolor’s bankruptcy has exacerbated already existing concerns about low-income car buyers falling behind on their debt payments. Prices of those bonds have slumped in recent weeks, pushing their yields higher relative to those of ultrasafe Treasurys.

Investors are “being cautious around Tricolor, kind of taking a step back, thinking about could this happen to other issuers, and then there’s concern about consumer credit,” said Theresa O’Neil, an asset-backed securities strategist at Bank of America.

George Goudelias, a senior portfolio manager and head of leveraged finance at Seix Investment Advisors, said that fraud allegations were “cause for concern” but still not something that has changed his thinking much about the overall credit market.

His team of analysts remains focused on traditional credit metrics, such as earnings growth and earnings relative to their interest expense, and making sure businesses could withstand an unexpected increase in interest rates.

Investors “really need to look at the whole picture,” he said.

FT : Ørsted to sell half of world’s largest offshore wind farm to Apollo in $6.5

Ørsted to sell half of world’s largest offshore wind farm to Apollo in $6.5bn deal
Investment in project off UK’s coast boosts Danish developer battling rising costs and political challenges

Ørsted has agreed to sell half of the world’s largest offshore wind farm to Apollo in a $6.5bn deal, marking a big step forward for the renewable energy developer as it battles rising costs and political challenges.

Denmark-listed Ørsted on Monday said the US private capital group would take a 50 per cent equity stake in the Hornsea 3 offshore wind farm off the east coast of England and fund half of the project’s remaining construction costs.

The 2.9 gigawatt project, located 160km off the Yorkshire coast, is due to be finished around the end of 2027, and is one of eight major offshore wind projects Ørsted is building around the world.

Ørsted’s business model is to sell stakes in projects to fund the next ones, but selling a share in Hornsea 3 has been particularly important to the company given its recent funding challenges.

Trond Westlie, chief financial officer at Ørsted, said Apollo would bring “infrastructure expertise and scaled capital”, adding the sale was an “important milestone” for the company.

The announcement confirms an earlier report in the Financial Times.

It is the latest in a series of European energy infrastructure deals struck by Apollo, which is investing with RWE in Germany’s electricity grid and led a £4.5bn financing for the Hinkley Point C nuclear power plant being developed by French energy group EDF in the UK.

Leslie Mapondera, partner at Apollo and head of European credit, said Apollo aimed to serve as a “provider of long-term and flexible capital solutions”.

Apollo has struck a record $17bn in energy infrastructure deals in Europe this year.

Ørsted, 50 per cent owned by the Danish state, is the world’s largest offshore wind developer but has faced a difficult few years as the political and economic backdrop to the industry shifted.

The company walked away from two major projects in the US in August 2023 as rising interest rates pushed up project costs, while more recently it has been under pressure because of US President Donald Trump’s hostility to offshore wind.

Ørsted raised $9bn from investors in a rights issue last month after Trump’s attempts to block a rival developer’s project spooked investors. The presidential intervention thwarted Ørsted’s efforts to sell a stake in its Sunrise Wind project off the coast of New York.

The Trump administration then issued a stop-work order against Ørsted’s Revolution Wind project also off the US north-east coast, although Ørsted has persuaded a judge to lift the order.

Selling a stake in Hornsea 3 was a key part of a divestment programme aimed at helping to raise enough funds to continue building the rest of its projects.

Hornsea 3 is an important part of the British government’s plans to decarbonise its electricity system by 2030. The planned 2.9GW capacity will be potentially able to generate enough power across the year to supply the equivalent of about 3mn homes.

FT : China offers tech giants cheap power to boost domestic AI chips

China offers tech giants cheap power to boost domestic AI chips
Beijing introduces grants that slash energy bills by up to half for some of country’s largest data centres

China has increased subsidies that cut energy bills by up to half for some of the country’s largest data centres, as Beijing steps up efforts to boost its domestic chips industry and compete with the US.

Local governments have beefed up incentives to help Chinese tech giants such as ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent, which have been hit with higher electricity costs following Beijing’s ban on purchasing Nvidia’s artificial intelligence chips, according to people familiar with the matter.

They added that the new subsidies come after several tech groups complained to regulators about the increased costs of using domestic semiconductors from companies such as Huawei and Cambricon, most of which are less energy-efficient than Nvidia’s.

Local governments in data centre-heavy provinces such as Gansu, Guizhou and Inner Mongolia have responded by offering subsidies that slash big data centres’ electricity bills by as much as 50 per cent, provided that they are powered by domestic chips.

Data centres using chips from foreign vendors such as Nvidia are not qualified for such entitlements, the people said.

The move is a further sign of how China is incentivising its tech companies to break their reliance on Nvidia and boost the country’s homegrown semiconductor industry so it can compete in an AI race against the US.

Electricity required to generate the same amount of tokens — units of compute power — from the current generation of Chinese chips is about 30 to 50 per cent higher than Nvidia’s H20, according to experts.

Huawei, China’s leading chipmaker, has sought to overcome the weaker single-chip computing performance of its flagship Ascend 910C chip by combining them into larger clusters, which has added to the operating electricity costs.

While tech companies typically lease compute power from third-party data centre operators, they still need to build a significant amount themselves to meet surging demand from AI-driven businesses.

Despite the higher energy costs related to using domestic chips, China’s more centralised grid network still provides cheaper and greener electricity than the US with no near-term shortage.

China’s energy-rich remote provinces such as Gansu, Guizhou and Inner Mongolia have become hotspots for data centre clusters.

To attract the biggest projects, these local governments have already been competing to offer some energy subsidies as well as cash incentives.

Some of these are enough to cover a data centre’s operating cost for about a year, said a person with knowledge of the matter.

Unit costs of industrial electricity in these provinces are about 30 per cent cheaper than those from the more developed coastal areas of eastern China. With the new subsidies, they will be cut further to about 0.4 yuan, or 5.6 cents, per kWh.

This compares with the average industrial electricity cost of about 9.1 cents per kWh in the US, according to August data published by the US Energy Information Administration.

Electricity prices vary significantly in different US states due to fragmented grid networks, while US tech groups such as Meta and Elon Musk’s xAI are also building their own generators near their data centre clusters in order to lower energy costs.

ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent did not respond to requests for comment.

The local governments of Guizhou, Gansu, Inner Mongolia and China’s National Development and Reform Commission did not respond to requests for comment.