FT : Investors pull €22bn from European ETFs in worst month for funds

Investors pull €22bn from European ETFs in worst month for funds
BlackRock, DWS and UBS among managers with the biggest outflows in March

Europe’s rapidly expanding exchange traded fund industry suffered its worst month on record in March as stock markets across the region fell sharply in response to the economic disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

Investors pulled €21.9bn from ETFs listed in Europe in March, the largest monthly withdrawal on record, according to Morningstar, the data provider.

“We haven’t seen outflows like these even in the darkest days of the global financial crisis of 2008 or during the height of the eurozone debt crisis,” said Jose Garcia-Zarate, associate director, passive strategies research at Morningstar.

Outflows in March from European listed ETFs were more than double the previous record of €8.3bn set in August 2019 when concerns about the impact of rising trade tensions between the US and China prompted investors to reduce their exposures to stock markets.

Europe’s ETF industry has enjoyed consistent growth over the past two decades with only temporary interruptions to its expansion. But the combination of heavy withdrawals in March along with the onset of bear market conditions raises questions about the future growth trajectory for ETFs in Europe after the industry’s assets sank 13 per cent to €781m last month.

“The scale of the drop in assets is quite staggering. This is quite a change from the start of 2020 when we all were placing bets on when ETFs in Europe would hit the €1tn mark,” said Mr Garcia-Zarate.

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager and the dominant player in Europe’s ETF industry, registered outflows of €6.6bn in March. UBS, the fifth-largest player, had even larger outflows of €7.3bn, while DWS, the asset manager owned by Deutsche Bank, suffered outflows of about €4.8bn.

Vanguard, the world’s second-largest ETF provider despite its much smaller presence in Europe, gathered inflows of €1.9bn in March. Pennsylvania-based Vanguard was the only top-10 ranked European ETF manager to attracted significant inflows, outperforming competitors by a clear margin.

ETFs tracking stock markets registered net outflows of €13bn last month. Withdrawals from US and emerging markets accounted for the bulk of the outflows, but equity ETFs providing exposure to larger European companies, Germany and the UK attracted combined inflows of about €4.7bn.

Fixed-income ETFs also suffered net outflows of about €13bn in March. Euro-denominated corporate bond ETFs, emerging markets debt ETFs and high-yield ETFs saw the heaviest withdrawals.

The turmoil prompted by coronavirus helped fuel interest in gold, which is often seen as a haven in periods of market volatility, helping commodity ETFs gather significant inflows of about €3bn last month.

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • TUI (TUI1 TH) +4.3%
  • Infineon (IFX TH) +3.3%
  • Zalando (ZAL TH) +3.2%
  • BNP Paribas (BNP TH) +3.2%
  • Just Eat Takeaway (T5W TH) +3.1%
    • Just Eat Takeaway 1Q Orders Rise 50% on Virus-led Delivery Boom
  • Renault (RNL TH) +3%
    • Nissan Seeks 500b Yen Credit Line From Banks: Nikkei (1)
  • MTU Aero (MTX TH) +3%
  • AMS (DQW1 TH) +2.9%
  • Reckitt (3RB TH) +2.8%
  • Fraport (FRA TH) +2.7%
  • Coloplast (CBHD TH) -0.8%
  • Telefonica Deutschland (O2D TH) -0.8%
  • Deutsche Wohnen (DWNI TH) -0.9%
    • Deutsche Wohnen ​​​​​​​Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT 30 euros
  • TOMRA Systems ASA (TMR TH) -1.3%

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Infineon (IFX TH) +3.5%
  • Lufthansa (LHA TH) +3.2%
    • Lufthansa Says Won’t Name New CFO; to Split Finance Roles
  • MTU Aero (MTX TH) +2.8%
  • Deutsche Bank (DBK TH) +2.3%
    • Barclays Hires Deutsche Bank’s Habayeb for Health Care ECM
  • Deutsche Post (DPW TH) +2.2%
  • E.On (EOAN TH) +1%
  • Covestro (1COV TH) +1%
  • Continental AG (CON TH) +1%
  • Deutsche Telekom (DTE TH) +0.9%
  • Vonovia (VNA TH) +0.9%
    • Vonovia Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 48 euros
MDAX:
  • Gerresheimer (GXI TH) +5%
    • Gerresheimer Maintains FY Adjusted Ebitda Margin About 21%
  • Zalando (ZAL TH) +4%
  • Fraport (FRA TH) +3.8%
  • Hugo Boss (BOSS TH) +3.5%
  • Airbus (AIR TH) +3%
  • Deutsche Wohnen (DWNI TH) -0.5%
    • Deutsche Wohnen Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT 30 euros
  • Telefonica Deutschland (O2D TH) -0.9%
SDAX:
  • Ceconomy (MEO TH) +6.5%
  • Hamburger Hafen (HHFA TH) +3.8%
  • Shop Apotheke (SAE TH) +3.4%
  • Corestate (CCAP TH) +3.3%
  • Schaeffler (SHA TH) +3%
  • Stroeer (SAX TH) -1.1%
  • Leoni (LEO TH) -3.8%
    • Leoni Cut to Sell at MainFirst; PT 1.20 euros

>>> What to look at today - 9th of April 2020

Stocks and equity futures traded mixed Thursday as investors mulled how soon economies will be able to ramp up again when the coronavirus outbreak eases. Oil rose amid expectations for production cuts.
European futures climbed while U.S. contracts swung between gains and losses. Most Asian stocks saw a modest rise, though Japanese shares retreated. Volumes were light ahead of the Good Friday holiday in many countries. Earlier, the S&P 500 closed over 3% higher, bringing its rise from the March low to more than 20%. Treasury yields pared some of Wednesday’s gains.
US After Hours DIS +7% jumps as it reaches 50 mln paid subs for DIS+; BIG +17.1% jumps on sale leaseback deal; NLS jumps on strong guidance, NLS +41.3% (guides Q1 revs above consensus, raises EBITDA guidance), EXTR +7% (issues downside guidance for 3Q20; implements actions to manage and reduce operating costs), FCAU -1.9% (TheVerge report says co is recalling 365K cars for backup camera problems)

Nikkei -0.55% Hang Seng +0.58% CSI +0.39% Shanghai +0.41% Shenzen +0.80%

Eur$ 1.0860 CNH 7.0795 CNY 7.0678 JPY 108.92 GBP 1.2367 CHF 0.9720 RUB 75.1237 TRY 6.7736 WTI$25.94 +3.39%

S&P +0.05% EuroStoxx +0.89% FTSE +1.27% Dax +1% SMI

Macro :
- Saudi Wealth Fund Takes Stakes in European Oil Majors: Dow Jones
- Blackstone Raises $10.7 Billion for European Property Fund
- QVR Advisors’ Flagship Volatility Fund Gains Over 50% in March
- Germany Mulls Easing Restrictions On Virus After Easter: HB
- ECB’s Lagarde Renews Fiscal Plea Amid EU Rift on Crisis Spending
- U.S. Investor Bull-Bear Spread -8.07: AAII
- Kuwait Oil Min Khaled al-Fadhel: OPEC+ talks are intended to agree on a 10-15M bpd production cut to restore balance and halt the price decline - financial press

Keep an eye on :
- AIR FP : Airbus to Cut Monthly Aircraft Production Rate by About a Third
- AF FP : Air France-KLM Expects Only ‘Skeleton Operation’ Through May
- ARBN SW : Arbonia Suspends Guidance, 1Q Currency-Adj. Revenue +2.7%
- BMW GY : BMW to Furlough Thousands of U.S. Employees
- BOBNN SW : Bobst Buys 51% Stake in Cito-System; No Terms
- BON FP : Bonduelle Suspends 2019-2020 Financial Objectives
- BRAV SS : Bravida Withdraws Dividend Proposal Amid Covid-19 Uncertainty
- CSGN SW : Credit Suisse to Delay Half of Planned 2019 Dividend to Autumn
- DHER GY : Brazil’s iFood and Delivery Hero’s Colombia Unit to Merge
- DIS US : Disney+ Number of Paid Subscribers Exceeds 50 Million Globally
- EQNR NO : Saudi Wealth Fund Said to Build $200 Million Equinor Stake
- FCA IM : Fiat-Peugeot Union May Be Delayed, Any State Aid Halt Dividends
- FCA IM : -1.9% in after hours in the us on TheVerge report says co is recalling 365K cars for backup camera problems
- GXI GY : Gerresheimer Maintains FY Adjusted Ebitda Margin About 21%
- TKWY NA : Just Eat Takeaway First Quarter Orders 46.7 Mln, +50% Y/y
- LEON SW : Leonteq Sees 1H Profits at About Break-Even; Withdraws 2020 View
- LHA GY ; Lufthansa Says Won’t Name New CFO; to Split Finance Roles
- LHA GY : Swiss Government Doesn’t Intend to Take Stake in Airline Swiss
- MRN FP : Mersen Sees Marked Downturn in 2Q, Espec. in Europe, N. America
- NMC LN : NMC Heads to Administration After Bowing to Creditor Demands
- RBI AV : Raiffeisen Bows to Regulators’ Demand It Stop Paying Dividend
- RECIB SS : Recipharm Cancels Dividend Because of Coronavirus
- RTN LN : Restaurant Group to Sell New Shares Worth ~20% of Capital
- RBS LN : Royal Bank of Scotland CEO, Chairman Take Pay Cut During Virus
- SAB SM : Spain’s Sabadell Cancels Dividend in 2020 Due to Coronavirus
- SAP GY : SAP New License Sales Decline Could Continue Till 4Q: React
- SK FP : Groupe SEB Sees ‘Substantially Larger’ Revenue Loss in 2Q
- SOLB BB : Solvay Maintains Final Dividend, Withdraws FY Adj. Ebitda View
- SPIE FP : SPIE: Board Proposes to Not Pay Final Dividend for 2019
- SW FP : Sodexo Sees EU2.4b-EU2.8b 2H Rev. Shortfall on Coronavirus
- STAN LN : Standard Chartered Says Doesn’t See Layoffs Due to Pandemic
- SEV FP : Suez Proposes to Cut Dividend to EU0.45/Share
- UBSG SW : UBS Sees 1Q Net ~$1.5b; to Pay 2019 Dividend in Two Parts (1)
- FHZN SW : Zurich Airport Doesn’t See Need for Bridge Loan From Government

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 9th of April 2020 V

>>> Up
* Adidas Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 280 euros
* Amundi Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 65 euros
* Credit Suisse Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
* GN Store Nord Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 375 kroner
* Hella Raised to Buy at MainFirst; PT 38 euros
* Jupiter Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 200 pence
* MorphoSys Raised to Buy at LBBW; PT 110 euros
* Puma Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 67 euros
* Securitas Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT 115 kronor

>>> Down
* ASMI Cut to Neutral at Exane; PT 100 euros
* Assura Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 75 pence
* Deutsche Wohnen Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT 30 euros
* FACC Cut to Reduce at Baader Helvea; PT 7 euros
* Generali Cut to Add at AlphaValue
* Jumbo Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 17 euros
* Leoni Cut to Sell at MainFirst; PT 1.20 euros
* Linde Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $187
* Next Cut to Reduce at AlphaValue
* Norsk Hydro Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 20 kroner
* Opap Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 8 euros
* Shell Cut to Hold at ABN Amro Bank; PT 1,492.05 pence
* Sonova Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 175 Swiss francs
* Tarkett Cut to Hold at MainFirst; PT 10.30 euros
* UBS Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 10 Swiss francs
* Vonovia Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 48 euros

>>> Initiation
* Sunrise Resumed Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley

>>> Call
* Wholesale Banks With Corporate Skew Seen to Underperform: MS
* Gambling Stocks Recovery Will Be Fast, William Hill Raised: RBC

>>> Renewed speculation that Italy govt may extend virus lockdown by an addition

Renewed speculation that Italy govt may extend virus lockdown by an additional 2 weeks - Italian press

Recent comments on lockdown:
- On Apr 8th PM Conte was said to have been advised by scientists not to ease lockdown measures
- On Apr 7th reports circulated that govt could begin a gradual end of the lockdown from May 4th
- On Apr 1st Italy Health Min Speranza: Lockdown to be extended until Monday April 13th (after Easter)
- On Apr 1st Italy Civil Protection chief stated that he saw the lockdown continuing until at least May 1st

>>> US After Hours Summary: DIS +7% jumps as it reaches 50 mln pai

After Hours Summary: DIS +7% jumps as it reaches 50 mln paid subs for DIS+; BIG +17.1% jumps on sale leaseback deal; NLS jumps on strong guidance

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: NLS +41.3% (guides Q1 revs above consensus, raises EBITDA guidance), EXTR +7% (issues downside guidance for 3Q20; implements actions to manage and reduce operating costs), SIX +3.1% (guides mid-point of Q1 revs below consensus; increases revolving credit, suspends dividends and buybacks, believes it has sufficient liquidity), MCHP +2.5% (raises revenue guidance for MarQ), PSMT +1.8%, MTX +0.2% (expects 1Q20 EPS to be above the high-end of its outlook range)

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: BIG +17.1% (enters into sale and leaseback agreements for four distribution centers), DIS +7% (announces that Disney+ has reached the 50 mln paid subscriber milestone), VNDA +6% (partners with the UIC to identify novel antivirals against COVID-19), MAXR +4.1% (provides update on COVID-19 operational posture), SNBR +3.1% (provides COVID-19 response update), AGNC +2% (lowers monthly common dividend; provides portfolio update), PTON +1.8% (in sympathy with NLS earnings)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: SFIX -1.3% (withdraws Q3 and FY20 guidance), OI -0.7% (withdraws 2020 guidance )

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: ANIK -2.5% (announces actions to strengthen liquidity in light of COVID-19), COST -2.3% (reports March comps), FCAU -1.9% (TheVerge report says co is recalling 365K cars for backup camera problems), SBUX -1.8% (provides COVID update, China EPS impact came in as expected; US EPS impact seen at $0.28-0.32; withdraws 2020 guidance; suspends repurchase program, does NOT expect to reduce dividend), TRI -1.2% (announces departure of Co-COO), EFSC -1.1% (files mixed securities shelf offering), NFLX -0.2% (reacts to DIS reaching 50 mln streaming milestone)

>>> US Close Dow +3.44% S&P +3.41% Nasdaq +2.58% Russell +4.61%

Closing Market Summary: Stocks Revisit Highs From Tuesday

The stock market rallied on Wednesday, though the advance found resistance near Tuesday's opening high. The S&P 500 gained 3.4% while the Russell 2000 (+4.6%) outperformed.

Equities got off to a shaky start that had the S&P 500 trading just six points above yesterday's low during the first hour of action. However, most heavily weighted sectors showed relative strength during the initial downdraft, which allowed for a swift bounce that continued into the afternoon.

The rally took place as participants remained optimistic about the recent slowdown in new coronavirus cases, which led to speculation about parts of the U.S. economy being able to reopen soon. NIAID Director Fauci said death models are improving and that a turnaround in COVID-19 would be likely after this week.

The optimism about the future overshadowed a couple reminders about how dire the recent past has been. The World Trade Organization expects that global GDP will be down between 2.5% and 8.8% this year while the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development noted today that its leading indicators are pointing to a sharp slowdown in all major economies except for India, where a less drastic slowdown has being observed.

All eleven sectors ended in the green with seven groups finishing ahead of the broader market. Real estate (+7.4%) and energy (+6.7%) outperformed throughout the day while utilities (+5.4%) and materials (+5.0%) ascended the leaderboard in late trade.

The top-weighted technology sector (+2.7%) kept pace with the broader market for the bulk of the session but couldn't keep up during the final stretch. However, chipmakers outperformed, sending the PHLX Semiconductor Index higher by 3.4%.

Zoom Video (ZM 117.81, +4.06, +3.6%) took part in the early rally, but surrendered the bulk of its gain after it was reported that Google banned its employees from using the software due to concerns about potential data leaks. Government officials from Germany and Taiwan have already been told not to use Zoom's video conferencing software.

Elsewhere, McDonald's (MCD 177.49, +1.90, +1.1%) rallied despite revealing that its comparable sales fell 3.4% in Q1 due to a 6.9% plunge in international sales while domestic sales ticked up 0.1%. The company reported strong performance for January and February but comparable sales in March were down 22.2%, led by a 34.7% drop in international sales. The company withdrew its outlook for the longer term and suspended its share buyback program.

Treasuries ended the day in mixed fashion, as shorter tenors climbed while longer tenors retreated, sending the 10-yr yield higher by three basis points to 0.76%.

Crude oil jumped $1.39, or 5.9%, to $25.17/bbl, reclaiming a portion of its loss from yesterday even though the latest weekly inventory report showed another massive build.

Economic data released this morning was limited to the weekly MBA Mortgage Index, which fell 17.9% to follow last week's 15.3% increase. The Purchase Index dropped 12.2% while the Refinance Index slumped 19.4%.

March PPI (consensus -0.4%; prior -0.6%), Core PPI (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%; prior -0.3%), weekly Initial Claims (consensus 5.00 mln; prior 6.65 mln), and Continuing Claims (prior 3.029 mln) will be reported at 8:30 ET while February Wholesale Inventories (Briefing.com consensus -0.4%) and the preliminary reading of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment for April (consensus 79.3; prior 89.1) will be released at 10:00 ET.

  • Nasdaq Composite -9.8% YTD
  • S&P 500 -14.8% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average -17.9% YTD
  • Russell 2000 -28.6% YTD