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WSJ : Anthropic Is on Track to Turn a Profit Much Faster Than OpenAI

Anthropic Is on Track to Turn a Profit Much Faster Than OpenAI
Financial documents from both companies show the different approaches they are taking to the AI boom

Anthropic anticipates breaking even by 2028, while OpenAI projects operating losses of $74 billion that year.
OpenAI expects to burn through approximately 14 times as much cash as Anthropic before achieving profitability in 2030.
Anthropic focuses on corporate customers, accounting for 80% of revenue.

The finances of Silicon Valley’s two largest artificial-intelligence startups show their diverging approaches to the AI boom, with Anthropic on a pace to turn a profit far more quickly than rival OpenAI, according to documents obtained by The Wall Street Journal.

Anthropic, which has a growing number of business users because of the capabilities of its Claude chatbot in coding and other arenas, expects to break even for the first time in 2028, the documents show.

By contrast, OpenAI forecasts its operating losses that year to swell to about $74 billion—or roughly three-fourths of revenue—thanks to ballooning spending on computing costs. The ChatGPT-maker also expects to burn through roughly 14 times as much cash as Anthropic before turning a profit in 2030.

The financial road maps, both shared with investors this summer, suggest that the world’s two most-valuable AI startups are taking vastly different approaches to growing their businesses. OpenAI expects thinner margins than Anthropic from its sales for the next five years. Yet it is investing far more in the chips and data centers needed to build its AI technology, and doling out more stock-based compensation to attract top researchers.

The aggressive plan reflects chief executive Sam Altman’s dream of turning OpenAI into a multitrillion-dollar tech giant, his desire to set the pace of the AI boom and his seemingly unending tolerance for risk. The strategy requires near-constant fundraising to keep the startup alive and could backfire if markets cool on the technology or its near-term profitability.

Investors have punished tech companies in recent weeks over concerns about AI spending and whether there will be enough revenue to pay for the extensive build-out in AI infrastructure.


The financial figures for OpenAI came before the startup signed a string of new computing deals with cloud and chip giants—meaning that it is likely set to spend even more in the coming years. Altman said on X that the deals put OpenAI on the hook for up to $1.4 trillion in commitments over the next eight years, leading industry skeptics and some investors to grow doubtful about the startup’s ability to pay for them.

The documents suggest that Anthropic is taking a more cautious approach, with costs growing at a pace more in line with revenue. The company is focused on increasing sales among corporate customers—which account for about 80% of revenue—and is avoiding OpenAI’s costly forays into image and video generation, which require much more computing power. Anthropic’s AI models have also taken off among coders.

Anthropic was founded four years ago by Dario Amodei, a former Google researcher who left OpenAI after a feud with Altman. The startup was caught flat-footed after the viral release of ChatGPT, which gave OpenAI a giant user base and a lengthy head start on sales. Anthropic focused instead on selling its Claude chatbot to businesses, and recently grew its valuation to $183 billion. OpenAI is valued at $500 billion.

Almost every major Silicon Valley investor has a stake in one of the two companies, hoping to cash in on what could be the largest initial public offerings in tech history. The world’s three biggest cloud companies also have tied their growth to the startups. Microsoft is OpenAI’s largest cloud provider, while Amazon and Google are for Anthropic.

Privately held companies often disclose revenue figures if they are growing quickly, but keep the rest of their finances a secret because they often tell a far less impressive story. The approach is especially true for AI developers that don’t want to disclose the extraordinary rate at which they are burning cash. The Journal is reporting Anthropic’s base case projections, not its more optimistic forecasts.

The Information earlier reported on some of the financial figures for both companies.

The documents show that OpenAI expects to burn $9 billion after generating $13 billion in sales this year, while Anthropic expects to burn almost $3 billion on $4.2 billion in sales—roughly 70% of revenue for both.

Anthropic then becomes a much more efficient business. In 2026, it forecasts dropping its cash burn to roughly one-third of revenue, compared with 57% for OpenAI. Anthropic’s burn rate falls further to 9% in 2027, while it stays the same for OpenAI.

OpenAI’s large upfront investment, particularly for new chips and data centers, could pay off handsomely if demand for its products continues to surge. The company recently launched a new video app called Sora and a web browser named Atlas. It is working on a new consumer hardware device, e-commerce and advertising features for ChatGPT, and humanoid robots.

“Demand for AI exceeds available compute supply today,” an OpenAI spokesman said. “Every dollar we invest in AI infrastructure goes to serving the hundreds of millions of consumers, businesses and developers who rely on ChatGPT to get more done.”

The company is spending almost $100 billion on backup data-center capacity to cover unforeseen demand from future products and research, the documents show. It is setting aside much more computing capacity for new AI research than Anthropic.

“We believe the risk to OpenAI of not having enough computing power is more significant and more likely than the risk of having too much,” Altman recently posted on X.

Last week, OpenAI chief financial officer Sarah Friar said the company had healthy margins and could break even if it wanted to. She highlighted the fast growth of OpenAI’s enterprise business and said the startup was still experimenting with new business models.

FT : Merz accused of using debt bazooka for welfare and tax cuts instead of inve

Merz accused of using debt bazooka for welfare and tax cuts instead of investment
Two prominent institutes and the Bundesbank sound alarm over use of new borrowings

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has been accused by economists of channelling billions of euros of new debt intended for defence and infrastructure investments to fund a higher welfare budget and other ongoing expenditures.

The Bundesbank and two economic think-tanks have warned that a sizeable portion of the government’s planned additional borrowing was likely to be used for areas that should be funded from the ordinary budget — also including tax cuts or subsidies.

After winning Germany’s federal elections in February, Merz struck a landmark deal with the Social Democrats and the Greens to loosen the country’s constitutional borrowing limit for infrastructure and defence spending.

The new rules opened the door to up to €1tn of additional investment in these two areas over the next decade, which is expected to boost GDP growth after four years of stagnation. The debt brake, which limits borrowing to 0.35 per cent of GDP in any given year, continues to apply for the rest of the budget.

German Economic Institute IW — a think-tank funded by employers’ associations — is the latest to raise concerns, suggesting that at least 40 per cent of planned additional debt by 2029 will be used to plug holes in the ordinary budget.

Merz’s coalition was using “a whole range of subterfuge” to work around rules stipulating that the additional borrowing has to be spent on extra investment in defence and infrastructure, IW said in a research note published on Monday — just weeks before the German parliament is scheduled to vote on the 2026 budget.

“This budgetary shell game risks undermining Germany’s future competitiveness,” said IW economist Tobias Hentze.

According to IW’s estimates, Berlin is planning to borrow an additional €271bn by 2029 compared with previous medium-term plans. Only €164bn of those funds are earmarked for the military or infrastructure investment. The remaining €107bn will be used to fund other government expenditures such as tax cuts for the hospitality sector and higher pensions for non-working mothers, it claimed.

Bundesbank also warned earlier this year that the government’s additional borrowing “is being used to a considerable degree to create other fiscal leeway”, suggesting that debt will rise “without an equivalent increase in defence capabilities and infrastructure”.

The central bank is forecasting that Germany’s budget deficit will rise to 3.5 per cent of GDP next year and rise further to around 4 per cent subsequently, up from around 2 per cent in 2025.

Similarly, Munich-based think-tank Ifo said in September that “key investment projects in the core budget are being cut and shifted to special funds” after carrying out a detailed analysis of more than 5,700 individual budget items. Social and defence spending were “rising noticeably”, it said.

Berlin was stretching the new borrowing rules “far beyond what had been politically agreed”, claimed Danyal Bayaz, Green finance minister of the state of Baden-Württemberg, warning that this was a “brazen” move that will blunt the expected positive effects on growth. “A lot of the money is flowing into measures that neither strengthen our infrastructure nor improve our competitiveness,” said Bayaz. 

Sebastian Dullien, research director of economic think-tank IMK in Berlin, which is funded by German trade unions, said the finance ministry is technically meeting the requirements set in the law. But he noted that what actually can be classified as additional investment was ill-defined and easy to game.

He stressed, however, that the short-term effects on GDP growth would not be blunted. “In macroeconomic terms it is largely irrelevant in the short run whether the money is used for investment or other spending,” he said.

Asked for a comment, the finance ministry said that all budgets until 2029 would meet the rules set in the constitutional change. These dictate that at least 10 per cent of the core budget will be used for investment.

Any amount beyond that is deemed “additional” and is entitled to be covered by the country’s new €500bn infrastructure fund. “Shifts between the core budget and special funds were made where they were technically justified and sensible,” a spokesman said.

Armin Steinbach, chief economist at the finance ministry, took issue with some of the reports’ methodology, suggesting they used as a benchmark “inflated planned investment figures” that predated the creation of the €500bn infrastructure fund.

He also said assumptions had been made that €100bn of the €500bn fund — which will be allocated to federal states — would not be used for investment “which is not a given”.

FT : Ukraine raids top officials as energy sector scandal unfolds

Ukraine raids top officials as energy sector scandal unfolds
Anti-corruption search included properties linked to justice minister and Zelenskyy’s former business partner

Ukraine’s top anti-corruption authorities on Monday searched properties linked to senior government officials and a former business partner of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as part of a sweeping investigation into alleged graft in the country’s energy sector.

News of the probe came amid escalating Russian aerial assaults on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure that have led to rolling blackouts and growing anger at Ukrainian authorities for failing to protect power facilities.

The alleged scheme involved “kickbacks” from contractors hired to build fortifications to defend energy infrastructure against Russian missiles and drones. It will add to concerns among Ukraine’s chief partners that the country needs to tackle graft as it seeks billions more dollars in western support for its war effort and economy.

In a statement and 27-minute video laying out its findings, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (Nabu) said its investigators and officials from the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (Sapo) had conducted a “large-scale operation to expose corruption in the energy sector”.

It followed a 15-month probe that had already gathered some 1,000 hours of audio recordings as evidence. “Today, we are conducting the final phase of this operation, with 70 searches being carried out,” said Oleksandr Abakumov, the head of one of Nabu’s detective units.

A person with knowledge of the probe said that former energy minister and current justice minister German Galushchenko as well as Timur Mindich, a wealthy businessman and co-owner of the Kvartal 95 entertainment company founded with Zelenskyy, were among those under investigation.

The person said Nabu investigators searched properties related to the men and several other suspects early Monday. Ukrainian MP Yaroslav Zheleznyak also confirmed the searches linked to Galushchenko and Mindich in a post on Telegram. He added that he had submitted a proposal to parliament to dismiss Galushchenko.

The controversy was widely reported in Ukrainian media.

Nabu said the “large-scale corruption scheme” attempted to influence public enterprises of strategic importance, including Ukraine’s national nuclear power company Energoatom.

It published photographs of bags stuffed full of US dollars, euros and Ukrainian hryvnia and said that about $100mn had been “laundered” in the scheme.

Nabu and Sapo declined to provide further comment. Mindich and Galushchenko did not respond to a request for comment. Energoatom said in a statement it was “fully co-operating” with the investigation.

Zelenskyy voiced support for the investigation in his evening address, urging government officials to “work together with Nabu and law enforcement agencies”. The president said Energoatom provided Ukraine with the “largest share of its energy generation”, making the good standing of the company a “priority”. He added: “There must be sentences.”

The allegations triggered an immediate political reaction in Ukraine, where Russia’s renewed attacks on energy infrastructure have put the spotlight on Ukraine’s defences around power plants and substations.

“I’m extremely saddened to see the extent of corruption in the energy sector,” said Inna Sovsun, a Ukrainian opposition lawmaker and member of the parliamentary committee on energy issues. But she added: “I’m not surprised.”

Nabu said that some of the kickbacks involved contracts for the construction of protective structures for the Khmelnytskyi nuclear power plant.

Ukraine’s top diplomat Andriy Sybiha said on Saturday that Russian forces had targeted substations powering two nuclear power plants in western Ukraine during a major missile and drone attack the previous night. The director of the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that an attack “critical for nuclear safety and security” forced the two power plants to reduce their output.

The fate of the Nabu and Sapo, seen as one of the key achievements of the reform movement following 2014’s Euromaidan revolution, became the catalyst for rare wartime protests in July after Ukraine’s parliament attempted to put the agency under control of the office of the prosecutor-general, who had been handpicked by Zelenskyy weeks before.

The move triggered the biggest demonstrations in Ukraine since the start of Russia’s war, breaking a taboo on wartime criticism of the president and prompting Zelenskyy to backtrack

FT : Switzerland nears deal to cut US tariffs to 15% after business push

Switzerland nears deal to cut US tariffs to 15% after business push
European country hopes to reduce levy from 39% after business leaders stepped in to drive the talks forward

Switzerland is inching closer to a deal to cut punishing US tariffs on its exports to about 15 per cent, as companies from Rolex to Richemont take the lead in breaking months of deadlock between Bern and Washington.

After months of frustration and stalled diplomacy Swiss business leaders stepped in to drive the talks forward, moving from lobbying on the sidelines to engaging directly with the Trump administration. Companies said they were starting to feel the strain of the 39 per cent tariffs imposed on most Swiss goods in August — the highest levies faced by any developed economy.

According to several people briefed on the discussions, Switzerland is closing in on a 15 per cent rate — matching the rate levied on the EU’s exports to the US. Several put the timeframe as being only several weeks away but others said the situation was fluid and could drag on longer.

US President Donald Trump said on Monday that he had not yet settled on the tariff rate he would impose on Switzerland, but confirmed Washington was “working on a deal to get the tariffs a little lower”.

“We hit Switzerland very hard. [But] we want Switzerland to remain successful,” Trump said from the Oval Office.

Swiss negotiators led by president and finance minister Karin Keller Sutter had believed they were close to reaching an agreement of about 10 per cent tariffs in the summer only for the White House to impose 39 per cent — shocking the country’s politicians and business leaders.

Switzerland itself has already abolished all industrial tariffs and the US is the country’s top export market for goods including watches, chocolate and machinery. Trump signalled that the estimated $39bn US trade deficit with Switzerland was the key reason for the high levy.

Keller-Sutter, whom Trump complained “didn’t want to listen” to his complaints about the US trade deficit with Switzerland, later handed responsibility to economy minister Guy Parmelin, who will assume the federation’s rotating presidency next year.

However, the private sector has become the driving force that has shifted the impasse after months of little progress, people close to negotiations said. Switzerland’s original messaging — that the 39 per cent tariff on its goods was unfair — was dropped in favour of a more pragmatic push led by companies themselves, the people said.

Executives from watchmaker Rolex, Cartier owner Richemont, commodity trader Mercuria, private equity firm Partners Group, shipping company MSC and refiner MKS PAMP met Trump at the White House last Tuesday, according to two people familiar with the situation.

The Swiss side emphasised the robust economic collaboration and relationship between the two countries at the Oval Office meeting, the people said.

Trump posted on Truth Social that it had been his “great honour” to meet “high-level representatives of Switzerland”, saying the two sides had discussed trade “and most importantly, trade imbalance”, and that his trade representative Jamieson Greer would now pursue follow-up talks with Bern.

The approach to trade talks plays to Switzerland’s traditional strengths, say experts.

Exports account for more than 70 per cent of GDP and the country’s global influence has long rested on its corporations — from watchmakers and commodity traders to pharmaceutical giants — rather than its political heft, according to Simon Evenett, professor of geopolitics and strategy at IMD Business School in Lausanne.

“It looks like CEOs can cut through better than federal councillors . . . [the Swiss] are playing their strongest card,” said Evenett. “A deal is still more likely next year but [this] is a positive sign.”

Another person said there was a “high chance” a deal could also be announced in January at the World Economic Forum in the Swiss resort of Davos. Trump is expected to attend the annual event.

Callista Gingrich, the new US ambassador to Switzerland who is the wife of former US House Speaker Newt Gingrich, may also inject momentum, said Rahul Sahgal, chief executive of the Swiss-American Chamber of Commerce.

“The situation is still open and the meeting with business leaders is complementary to what the Swiss government has been doing,” Sahgal added.

Helene Budliger Artieda, head of the SECO body which implements Switzerland’s economic and trade policy measures, has also played a pivotal role, travelling multiple times to Washington in recent months.

Days after Trump’s meeting with business executives, Parmelin posted on X that he had a “very constructive” conversation with Greer.

The economy ministry and SECO did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

FT : Intel’s top AI executive leaves for OpenAI after 6 months in role

Intel’s top AI executive leaves for OpenAI after 6 months in role
Chief technology officer Sachin Katti’s departure is latest blow to chipmaker as it struggles to compete

Intel’s top artificial intelligence executive has defected to OpenAI after six months on the job, marking the latest in a series of senior departures from the chipmaker as it struggles to make a mark in the AI sector.

Sachin Katti is joining OpenAI to work on its AI infrastructure, the companies confirmed on Monday. Intel chief executive Lip-Bu Tan will take over his responsibilities. 

Katti was deeply involved in Intel’s push to develop competitive AI software and chips to compete with dominant rivals Nvidia and AMD. He joined Intel in late 2021, and was promoted to chief technology and AI officer in April.

His move marks the second time this year that Intel has lost a top AI executive, after Justin Hotard, who led Intel’s data centre and AI business, left to become chief executive of Nokia in the spring.

It comes after chief strategy officer Safroadu Yeboah‑Amankwah left over the summer. In September, Intel announced that Michelle Johnston Holthaus, former co-chief executive and head of Intel’s chips business, would leave after more than 30 years at the company. 

Intel’s failure to launch a competitive product to Nvidia’s graphics processing units and capitalise on the AI boom in recent years has contributed to its financial woes. The chipmaker has spent billions of dollars on manufacturing facilities in the US while struggling to grow its revenue from chip sales.

Intel shares are up 73 per cent in the past six months after the Trump administration took a 10 per cent stake in the company, which was followed by multibillion-dollar investments from Nvidia and SoftBank.

Silicon Valley has meanwhile been gripped by an AI talent war as tech companies race to compete in the technology.

OpenAI president and co-founder Greg Brockman, in a post on X, said Katti would be working on “designing and building our compute infrastructure”.

The $500bn start-up has committed to some $1.4tn in spending on the infrastructure powering AI over the next eight years.

Intel thanked Katti, adding that “AI remains one of Intel’s highest strategic priorities, and we are focused on executing our technology and product road map across emerging AI workloads”.

The chipmaker also announced the appointment of Craig Barratt, a former Intel senior vice-president and Google executive, to its board on Monday.

>>> US After Hours Summary: BBAI +12.5% higher on earnings and acquisition of As

After Hours Summary: BBAI +12.5% higher on earnings and acquisition of Ask Sage; RKLB +7.1% and PSKY +6% higher on earnings; CRWV -4% lower on earnings

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: HNRG +18.6%, ONTF +14.5%, PUBM +13.2%, REAL +12.8%, BBAI +12.5% (also definitive agreement to acquire Ask Sage), DSP +8.6%, KALV +7.6%, RKLB +7.1%, PSKY +6%, GDOT +3.9%, TTGT +3.6%, CWCO +3.6%, IPG +1%, WULF +0.7%, SIBN +0.7%, GETY +0.6%, CNNE +0.1%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: AIV +9.7% (concludes strategic review process; seeks approval to adopt plan of sale and liquidation), STXS +5.7% (receives FDA clearance for GenesisX), ADCT +4.1% (stock offering by selling shareholders), PROF +3.7% (regains distribution rights for TULSA-PRO), LXP +2.1% (completes 1-for-5 reverse split), CNS +1.9% (reports October AUM), BKR +0.5% (Co and Glenfarne announce agreements to advance Alaska LNG), CV +0.4% (requests Breakthrough Device Designation for CapsoCam UGI)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: OM -24.2%, GEMI -12.1%, IHRT -9%, TDW -8%, HROW -6.3%, CRWV -4%, EGY -3.5%, OCS -2.8%, MLYS -2.2%, PLUG -2%, LIF -1.2% (also to acquire Nativo), RGTI -0.8%, OXY -0.8%, ASTS -0.3%, CNC -0.1% (guidance)

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: VOR -27.4% (proposed public offering of common stock), CMTL -14.3% (rebranding of its Terrestrial & Wireless Networks segment), CLSK -6.1% (convertible notes offering), OCS -2.8% (stock offering by selling shareholders), VYGR -2.6% ($400 mln mixed shelf offering; also sales agreement up to $100 mln in common stock), ROL -2.6% (secondary public offering), MLYS -2.2% (files mixed securities shelf offering), ONL -2% (files $750 mln mixed shelf offering), COGT -1.4% (public offerings of convertible notes and common stock), FSI -0.9% (offer for agriculture compay declined), CODI -0.9% (to delay 10-q filing), AMBC -0.1% (rebrands to Octave Specialty Group)

FT : Glencore four plead ‘not guilty’ to West Africa corruption charges

Glencore four plead ‘not guilty’ to West Africa corruption charges
SFO case is one of the highest-profile prosecutions of commodities trading executives ever undertaken in the UK


Four former Glencore staffers have pleaded not guilty to charges of conspiracy to give corrupt payments ahead of a landmark criminal trial scheduled to take place in London in 2027.

The case brought by the Serious Fraud Office over alleged past activities involving Glencore’s London-based West Africa desk is one of the highest-profile prosecutions of commodities trading executives ever undertaken by the UK agency.

The individuals are accused of conspiring to make corrupt payments that variously benefited Glencore’s business in Nigeria, Cameroon and the Ivory Coast between 2007 and 2014.

The crown court at Southwark on Monday arraigned the former Glencore staffers on criminal charges of conspiracy to give corrupt payments. They are Martin Wakefield, 66, David Perez, 54, Ramon Labiaga, 56, and Paul Hopkirk, 51. The four pleaded not guilty to all charges against them.

Alexander Beard, Glencore’s former head of oil trading, and Andrew Gibson, its former head of oil operations, have also been charged in the same case but were not required to be present at the hearing. Beard and Gibson have not entered formal pleas to the court, though their lawyers have separately indicated that both deny the allegations and will plead not guilty.

The case is scheduled to go to trial in October 2027.

The charges come after a years-long investigation into alleged bribery at Glencore connected to its London-based West Africa desk, which sourced and traded crude oil across the continent.

The charges in the case include four counts of conspiracy to give corrupt payments and one count of “conspiracy to falsify documents required for an accounting purpose”.

The latter charge, against Wakefield, Perez and Gibson, alleges that documents were falsified to generate invoices for cash to be collected in London as “service fees” due to Amazoil Ltd, a Nigerian energy company.

In 2022, Glencore pleaded guilty to charges of corruption and bribery brought by the US Department of Justice and the SFO, and agreed to pay more than $1.1bn in fines and forfeiture.

Glencore declined to comment. An SFO spokesperson said: “We continue to progress our bribery case against six former Glencore employees.”