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The work at Antelope Reef, which could give Beijing another runway and more missile facilities, caught some analysts by surprise

After a hiatus of nearly a decade, China is jump-starting its island-building campaign in the South China Sea—and turning a once-obscure reef into what could be its largest military base in the disputed waters.

The construction at Antelope Reef could give Beijing another runway, more missile facilities and additional surveillance installations, analysts say, and serve as a backup to its existing military footprint in the region. And because it is relatively close to the Chinese mainland, it also offers Beijing a chance to increase civilian infrastructure, bolstering its argument that the area is part of China.

The status of the South China Sea has long been disputed between China and countries in the region. Beijing’s island-building campaign has strengthened its hold on the waterway and given it control of a thoroughfare that would be vital in any conflict over Taiwan, the self-governing island that Beijing claims. The U.S., meanwhile, has supported other countries such as the Philippines in pushing back against the Chinese claims.

The work at Antelope Reef, which according to satellite imagery includes jetties, a helipad, gray-roofed structures and a new coastline that looks suitable to be a runway, caught some analysts by surprise. Antelope Reef is in the Paracel Islands, an archipelago in the northern part of the South China Sea that is firmly controlled by China, though Vietnam and Taiwan also have claims there.

Recent flashpoints have been around Scarborough Shoal in the east and in the more-disputed Spratly Islands further south. Vietnam has embarked on an island-building campaign of its own in the Spratlys, and has been rapidly catching up to China in creating new land.

“This is the first time in a long time that they have reopened this basket of being able to build islands extremely large and extremely quickly,” Harrison Prétat, deputy director at the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said of the work at Antelope Reef.

“This could be a response to show Vietnam and maybe show others that China’s not going to be outdone, and they’re not going to sit by while someone else builds up their own outposts,” Prétat added, though he noted other factors are probably also at play.

A CSIS analysis of satellite imagery determined that the area of reclaimed land at Antelope Reef was roughly 1,490 acres so far, already about the same size as Mischief Reef in the Spratlys, which is China’s largest outpost and measures some 1,504 acres. China’s largest island in the Paracels, Woody Island, which hosts an air and naval base and a town that administers the region, measures 890 acres, according to CSIS.

Vietnam’s foreign ministry has protested the work at Antelope Reef, saying any foreign activities in the Paracels without Vietnamese permission are illegal.

Chinese officials have called the Paracels their inherent territory. “Necessary construction on our own territory is aimed at improving living and working conditions on the islands and growing the local economy,” a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said.

There has been no international ruling on which country has sovereignty over the Paracels. A 2016 ruling from a tribunal at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, however, effectively invalidated the basis for China’s historic maritime claims to most of the South China Sea, its so-called nine-dash line.

The work at Antelope may not be a strategic game-changer because China already has a steady grip on the Paracels. But it could still pose a problem for the U.S. and allies if there is a conflict over Taiwan.

A dredged lagoon at Antelope Reef could host navy vessels, including submarines, and perhaps even China’s new aircraft carriers and coastguard ships, said Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. If fighting erupts over Taiwan, military bases in the Paracels will be more useful to China than outposts in the Spratlys, which are farther south from the mainland and could be cut off, he said.

“If we are talking about a scenario where China might be preparing for potential, real high-intensity operations, then the Paracels buildup makes sense,” he said.

The U.S. has long opposed China’s construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea. It is “something I think all of us that care about international laws should be concerned about,” Adm. Daryl Caudle, the Navy’s chief of naval operations, told reporters during a recent visit to Australia. “It doesn’t follow the rules of the sea.”

Although work at Antelope Reef appears to have started before the Trump administration’s military action in Venezuela and Iran, analysts said Beijing will likely benefit from Washington’s attention being elsewhere. A recent threat assessment from the U.S. intelligence community also dialed back the view that China could invade Taiwan by next year.

“Beijing probably saw that the administration’s focus is not particularly on the South China Sea,” Prétat said. “It’s kind of up in the air—how hawkish are they on China, or how hawkish is the president on China?”

The work at Antelope Reef, which could give Beijing another runway and more missile facilities, caught some analysts by surprise

After a hiatus of nearly a decade, China is jump-starting its island-building campaign in the South China Sea—and turning a once-obscure reef into what could be its largest military base in the disputed waters.

The construction at Antelope Reef could give Beijing another runway, more missile facilities and additional surveillance installations, analysts say, and serve as a backup to its existing military footprint in the region. And because it is relatively close to the Chinese mainland, it also offers Beijing a chance to increase civilian infrastructure, bolstering its argument that the area is part of China.

The status of the South China Sea has long been disputed between China and countries in the region. Beijing’s island-building campaign has strengthened its hold on the waterway and given it control of a thoroughfare that would be vital in any conflict over Taiwan, the self-governing island that Beijing claims. The U.S., meanwhile, has supported other countries such as the Philippines in pushing back against the Chinese claims.

The work at Antelope Reef, which according to satellite imagery includes jetties, a helipad, gray-roofed structures and a new coastline that looks suitable to be a runway, caught some analysts by surprise. Antelope Reef is in the Paracel Islands, an archipelago in the northern part of the South China Sea that is firmly controlled by China, though Vietnam and Taiwan also have claims there.

Recent flashpoints have been around Scarborough Shoal in the east and in the more-disputed Spratly Islands further south. Vietnam has embarked on an island-building campaign of its own in the Spratlys, and has been rapidly catching up to China in creating new land.

“This is the first time in a long time that they have reopened this basket of being able to build islands extremely large and extremely quickly,” Harrison Prétat, deputy director at the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said of the work at Antelope Reef.

“This could be a response to show Vietnam and maybe show others that China’s not going to be outdone, and they’re not going to sit by while someone else builds up their own outposts,” Prétat added, though he noted other factors are probably also at play.

A CSIS analysis of satellite imagery determined that the area of reclaimed land at Antelope Reef was roughly 1,490 acres so far, already about the same size as Mischief Reef in the Spratlys, which is China’s largest outpost and measures some 1,504 acres. China’s largest island in the Paracels, Woody Island, which hosts an air and naval base and a town that administers the region, measures 890 acres, according to CSIS.

Vietnam’s foreign ministry has protested the work at Antelope Reef, saying any foreign activities in the Paracels without Vietnamese permission are illegal.

Chinese officials have called the Paracels their inherent territory. “Necessary construction on our own territory is aimed at improving living and working conditions on the islands and growing the local economy,” a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said.

There has been no international ruling on which country has sovereignty over the Paracels. A 2016 ruling from a tribunal at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, however, effectively invalidated the basis for China’s historic maritime claims to most of the South China Sea, its so-called nine-dash line.

The work at Antelope may not be a strategic game-changer because China already has a steady grip on the Paracels. But it could still pose a problem for the U.S. and allies if there is a conflict over Taiwan.

A dredged lagoon at Antelope Reef could host navy vessels, including submarines, and perhaps even China’s new aircraft carriers and coastguard ships, said Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. If fighting erupts over Taiwan, military bases in the Paracels will be more useful to China than outposts in the Spratlys, which are farther south from the mainland and could be cut off, he said.

“If we are talking about a scenario where China might be preparing for potential, real high-intensity operations, then the Paracels buildup makes sense,” he said.

The U.S. has long opposed China’s construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea. It is “something I think all of us that care about international laws should be concerned about,” Adm. Daryl Caudle, the Navy’s chief of naval operations, told reporters during a recent visit to Australia. “It doesn’t follow the rules of the sea.”

Although work at Antelope Reef appears to have started before the Trump administration’s military action in Venezuela and Iran, analysts said Beijing will likely benefit from Washington’s attention being elsewhere. A recent threat assessment from the U.S. intelligence community also dialed back the view that China could invade Taiwan by next year.

“Beijing probably saw that the administration’s focus is not particularly on the South China Sea,” Prétat said. “It’s kind of up in the air—how hawkish are they on China, or how hawkish is the president on China?”

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The dots of land both provide export terminals for Tehran’s oil and a strategic position over shipping lanes

Iran’s fortifications on small islands near the Strait of Hormuz boost its power to control the key waterway, and reopening shipping there might require U.S. or allied forces to capture some of those same dots of land.

The importance of the islands such as Kharg, Qeshm and Abu Musa is increasingly coming into view as Iran causes an economic crisis by blocking most oil tankers from transiting the strait. The waterway carried about 20% of the world’s traded crude oil before the war; traffic has slowed to a trickle since the U.S.-Israeli air war on Iran began on Feb. 28.

“Navigation through the Hormuz Strait requires you to follow a certain route,” says Yossi Kuperwasser, former head of Israeli military intelligence research and now director of think tank Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security. “This route goes between islands that are controlled by Iran.”

Tehran has called its 19 islands in the 100-mile strait aircraft carriers, installing radar systems, airstrips and fuel depots, missile systems and naval launches for submarines and fast-attack boats.

Unlocking the strait promises to be the next phase of the war, either through a negotiated peace agreement or a military operation. An amphibious assault ship, the USS Tripoli, arrived in the Middle East over the weekend ferrying elements of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, which is specifically trained for operations such as taking control of islands in hostile territory.

Iran’s most strategically important island, Kharg, is actually hundreds of miles northwest of the strait itself. Iran loads 90% of its crude oil at Kharg, making it the beating heart of Iran’s economy.

The U.S. launched a furious aircraft-and-missile assault on Kharg focused on eliminating its military installations. But the attack didn’t touch the oil facilities, and market analysts said tankers continued to load at Kharg in the following days.

President Trump has repeatedly spoken of seizing Kharg as leverage to compel the regime to lay off Hormuz. But taking Kharg would be difficult because it is large and located deep in Iranian territory. And there is no guarantee American control of Kharg’s oil facilities would force Iran’s hand.

The largest island at the Hormuz Strait, Qeshm is critical for Iran’s control of Hormuz. Another location for oil exports, Qeshm hosts a naval station and missiles in underground tunnels. It is also the site of a large desalination plant that Tehran has accused the U.S. of bombing.

Smaller islands near Qeshm are likewise fortified with military structures, including Hormuz to the east. Kish, westward into the Gulf, has an airstrip.

Perhaps most directly tied to Hormuz transits, Larak is linked to Iran’s monitoring of vessel traffic and a key military asset for the regime.

Outwardly a barren desert island, Larak has housed a Russian-made satellite communications-jamming system guarded by Iranian naval infantry and fast-attack vessels with antiship missiles, according to Israel-based Alma Research and Education Center.

As Iran has asserted new levels of control over the strait since the war began, Larak has been used by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to monitor ship traffic, said Max Meizlish, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a former sanctions enforcement officer in the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control. Meizlish described Larak as “the corridor’s operational backbone.”

In the past, ships transiting the strait passed closer to its southern side, nearer the coast of Oman. But as Iran exerts gatekeeping power, analysts at Lloyd’s List Intelligence say vessels are now transiting a channel between Larak and Qeshm, and hugging the Iranian coast as they head to open seas. Nearly all of the tankers that have exited Hormuz since the beginning of the war have had an Iran connection, according to Lloyd’s.

“This is not how things were moving prior to the war, and it’s a really disturbing development in terms of Iran exerting control over traffic through the Straits,” Tomer Raanan, a Lloyd’s maritime-risk analyst, told an online conference last week.

Raanan said Iran appears to be putting in place a screening system where vessel operators need to contact the IRGC, the powerful paramilitary force running the war effort, through an intermediary and provide documentation to get clearance. In a small number of cases, ships have paid to transit, with the going rate quoted at up to $2 million in Chinese yuan for a very large crude carrier, Raanan said.

Abu Musa is where Iran locked in control over the strait 55 years ago. Closer to Dubai than to the Iranian mainland, Abu Musa was a British protectorate along with seven emirates that are today the United Arab Emirates.

In 1971, the U.S.-backed Shah of Iran put troops on Abu Musa along with Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb during a period of turmoil sparked by British retreat from the region. The Emiratis sustain claims to the islands today.

A pair of tiny sun-baked islands called Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb are Iran’s eyes on the channel, and of course have boasted military fortifications. The larger of the two, Greater Tunb, is about 4 square miles, about the size of Key West.

It is here where Iran has territory closest to the shipping lanes. The strait itself is roughly 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, but ships actually track along two deep channels—one westward into the Gulf and one out—that are each only about 2 miles wide. The Tunb islands sit in between the two channels.

Ties that date back centuries are under heavy strain from Iran’s bombardments during the war

DUBAI—The United Arab Emirates has launched a broad crackdown on Iranians in the country, including canceling visas and closing institutions to protest Tehran’s daily drone and missile attacks.

Several Iranian families in Dubai say they have relatives who have lived in the U.A.E. for decades whose visas were suddenly revoked, sometimes while they were traveling, leaving them unable to return.

This week the U.A.E. announced a broader ban on Iranian passport holders from entering or transiting the country. Earlier, it closed the Iranian Hospital—an institution nearly as old as the state—along with an Iranian social club and several Iranian schools, making it harder for families to stay.

The moves have hit a community of nearly half a million people that long has long underpinned a mutually lucrative relationship between the two countries.

The U.A.E. is Iran’s most important link to the global economy and for years has served as a financial hub for Iranian businesses and people seeking a haven from Western sanctions, according to analysts tracking Tehran’s activities and the U.S. Treasury. Iranian cash, in turn, has helped fuel the growth of the Emirati commercial capital, Dubai.

At a decades-old Iranian restaurant in Dubai, Al Ustad Special Kebab, owner Majeed Ansari said he understands the U.A.E. government’s tightening restrictions.

“They want safety, and I understand that,” he said, as waiters bustled past with plates of yogurt-marinated mutton and chicken kebabs. He said that historical ties between Iran and Dubai run deep and won’t be easily shaken by the continuing conflict.

“They respect us, and we respect them,” said Ansari, whose father opened the eatery nearly half a century ago, in 1978, just seven years after the U.A.E. was established.

Just across the street at the Ali Bin Ali grocery store, a shopkeeper was more apprehensive as he arranged boxes of Iranian dates and nuts. He said he has family in Iran but considers Dubai home, and fears leaving in case he can’t return.

The U.A.E. and Iran have always had tensions, but they have intensified under wartime pressure. Iran began firing drones and missiles at the U.A.E. almost immediately after it came under attack by the U.S. and Israel, hitting marquee targets including Dubai’s man-made Palm island, the Burj al-Arab luxury hotel and the airport. Overall it has fired around 2,500 drones and missiles at the country, far more than it has launched at Israel.

The U.A.E. is preparing for the possibility of military involvement with Iran and may take action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force, which would make it the first Persian Gulf country to become a combatant, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday. A U.A.E. official said the country’s posture remains defensive.

The U.A.E. also is considering tougher financial actions, including freezing Iranian assets in the country, the Journal has reported. Every pressure point on Iran is under consideration, a person familiar with the U.A.E.’s evolving policy toward Iranian residents said this week. Authorities will reassess residency policies for communities like Iranians in light of wartime attacks on the economy, the official said.

The U.A.E.’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said its Iranian community is a valued and integral part of its social fabric.

The Persian and Arab populations that line either side of the Strait of Hormuz have been intertwined for centuries. Parts of what is now Iran’s coastline was controlled in the 1800s by a dynasty based in the present-day U.A.E.

Iranian migration to what is now the U.A.E. came in several waves. Merchants came to Dubai in the 19th century. Pious Muslims came in the 1920s, leaving Iran as the shah secularized the nation, including banning the headscarf. Secular Iranians later came in droves to escape the Islamic Revolution in the late 1970s.

Some early Iranian migrants became Emirati citizens during the foundation of the U.A.E. in the early 1970s. More than half of all Emiratis trace their ancestral roots to southern Iran, said Mira Al Hussein, an associate fellow at the University of Edinburgh’s Alwaleed bin Talal Centre.

Other migrants didn’t qualify but continued to live as Iranian nationals in the U.A.E. Some families have resided in the U.A.E. for generations on visas that must be renewed every few years and depend on employment or property ownership.

“There are a lot of politics around the Persian origin,” said Al Hussein, who is Emirati of ancestral Persian origin. “Families who have been in the Emirates a long time ago wear it proudly. Others, especially those that came later, changed their name, worried about being assumed to have dual loyalties.”

Those tensions are now coming to a head. Many Iranians with U.A.E. residency who were abroad during the war have had their residency permits canceled, leaving students stranded at U.S. universities and travelers stuck on family visits in Iran. A notice from the Dubai-based Emirates Airline said Iranian nationals aren’t allowed to enter or transit the country.

On Wednesday, at a travel agency near Al Ustad Special Kebab that advertised “flights to Persia,” the owner said his business to and from Iran had dried up. The government had been increasingly rejecting visa applications for Iranians since the war began, he said.

The parking lot at Dubai’s Towheed Iranian Boys School sat deserted. The lettering had been stripped from the building, leaving only a faint imprint of the school’s name on the facade. Four U.A.E. flags fluttered from the roof in the afternoon breeze, while a small fleet of roughly two dozen school buses stood idle beside the compound.

Across town, entrances to the Iranian Hospital were barred, including the emergency wing. A lone security guard pacing the grounds said authorities closed the facility about a week ago. The morning after the abrupt shutdown, he said he had to turn away doctors and nurses who arrived unaware.

Calls to the hospital, the Iranian Club and the Iranian Business Council went unanswered. Calls to the Salman Farsi School and Towheed Iranian School went straight to a voicemail indicating the power had been cut off.

Saif Sabet, who moved to Dubai more than two decades ago from the Iranian city of Gerash, said he would skip a planned trip to Iran later this year given the new climate. He owns two grocery shops in Dubai and said his roots are now firmly established in the city. His bank called him recently to check in on him, he said with a smile.

“Everyone is hospitable to us here,” he said. “My family is here; my business is here; my life is here.”

One Iranian resident said he was detained by police after an officer stopped and asked for his identification as he wandered on the beach. He was released after being questioned.

Others said they fear that they would be deported if they were critical of the U.A.E., but also that the Islamic Republic could go after their families if they denounce Iran.

“The war is going to have a long-term, permanent impact,” said Mishaal Al Gergawi, an Emirati entrepreneur and writer.

“There will be skepticism around any kind of coexistence with the Iranian regime,” he said. “Iran lost a tolerant neighbor.”

Altered rates on finished products made with the metals would simplify compliance, but could effectively raise costs for many imports

WASHINGTON—The Trump administration is preparing to reshape its steel and aluminum tariff regime, altering duties on finished products to help simplify compliance. The net effect of the changes could effectively raise costs for many imports.

What’s changing

Under an expected presidential proclamation, which could be issued as soon as this week, finished products made with imported steel and aluminum would be tariffed at 25%, according to people with knowledge of the plans.

The 25% tariff would apply to the entire value of a finished product—known derivative products—containing steel and aluminum, the people said. That would replace the current 50% duty, which only applies to the value of steel or aluminum used in a product.

The 50% tariff will remain in place for commodity-grade steel and aluminum products—goods that are almost entirely made of the metals, the people said. Some goods could be reclassified as commodity products if they are made almost entirely of the metals.

Kush Desai, a White House spokesman, said that the administration has “always been clear about implementing a nuanced, nimble, and multifaceted strategy to reshore critical manufacturing back to the United States,” adding that “any reporting about potential executive actions that haven’t been officially announced by the administration should, however, be considered unsubstantiated speculation.”

The impact

The consequences of the tariff changes will vary widely depending on the product. Even though the tariff rate will be lower for many goods, the change likely means the cost of the tariffs assessed on many products will be higher. That’s because of duties being charged on the full value of imported products rather than just their steel or aluminum content.

The move could also mean the U.S. government will take in more money under the steel and aluminum tariffs, which are imposed under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. That could help partially offset the lower tariff revenues that the government has collected since the Supreme Court invalidated many of Trump’s other levies in February.

The expected changes are meant to make compliance easier for companies that have struggled to measure the value of the steel and aluminum content in complex manufactured products.

“This action will help ensure these tariffs function as intended to support domestic production and American workers,” said Jon Toomey, president of the Coalition for a Prosperous America, a protectionist group that represents many domestic U.S. steel and aluminum companies and has worked with the administration on the tariff changes.

The back story

In 2018, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imported steel and 10% tariff on imported aluminum, but only on commodity-grade metal. Manufacturers argued that those tariffs increased their metal costs—and allowed imported finished products made with steel and aluminum to enter the country without tariffs.

When Trump returned to office, he increased the aluminum tariff to 25% and expanded the metal tariffs to hundreds of imported finished goods, including screws, furniture and auto parts that were previously not subject to levies. Last June, he doubled those levies to 50%.

The expected tariff changes would come after months of deliberations inside the administration over how to rewrite steel and aluminum tariffs to simplify compliance. Earlier this year, the administration weighed a plan to create three tiers of different tariff levels, but ultimately decided on an even simpler proposal.