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Auto Makers Charge Ahead With Electric-Vehicle Plans

GM, Volkswagen, Nissan plan batch of new plug-in models despite economic challenges as investors rev up Tesla shares

Pressure is building on General Motors Co., GM -1.49% Volkswagen AG VOW -1.00% and other major auto makers to deliver on their electric-vehicle plans, as investor enthusiasm for the technology has grown in recent months.

Despite some coronavirus-related setbacks, car companies in the coming months are expected to unleash a wave of new plug-in models in an effort to catch up with Tesla Inc. TSLA 0.01% and meet governments’ tightening restrictions on how much vehicles can pollute.

While there have been some delays and cancellations tied to the health crisis, executives say that longer-term trends make continued investment in this technology a necessity and that the influx will help reduce their more-than-a-century-long reliance on selling gasoline-powered vehicles.

Pressure is building on General Motors Co., GM -1.49% Volkswagen AG VOW -1.00% and other major auto makers to deliver on their electric-vehicle plans, as investor enthusiasm for the technology has grown in recent months.

Despite some coronavirus-related setbacks, car companies in the coming months are expected to unleash a wave of new plug-in models in an effort to catch up with Tesla Inc. TSLA 0.01% and meet governments’ tightening restrictions on how much vehicles can pollute.

While there have been some delays and cancellations tied to the health crisis, executives say that longer-term trends make continued investment in this technology a necessity and that the influx will help reduce their more-than-a-century-long reliance on selling gasoline-powered vehicles.

While the surge in Tesla shares has drawn a lot of attention, other electric-vehicle startups are also benefiting, such as Fisker Inc., which this past week said it would go public in a reverse merger deal backed by private-equity giant Apollo Global Management Inc. The deal values Fisker at roughly $2.9 billion, the company said.

Rivian Automotive Inc., an electric-truck startup backed by Amazon.com Inc., also raised an additional $2.5 billion in private funding earlier this month to bolster efforts to start delivering vehicles early next year.

Electric cars remain just a slice of the overall auto market, accounting for 3% of all new-vehicle sales globally in 2019, according to consulting firm AlixPartners LLP.

The vehicles’ limited range relative to gas-powered counterparts, a dearth of public charging stations and higher sticker prices have turned off buyers. An electric model can cost thousands of dollars more than its equivalent gas-engine version, and many car shoppers say they can’t justify such an upcharge, even when fuel savings and tax credits are factored in.

The Covid-19 pandemic has made the economics tougher for consumers considering switching to electric, analysts say, and rollouts of such models are now a harder sell than they were than six months ago.

Gas prices have collapsed as global oil demand cratered earlier this year, making the benefits of electric transportation less attractive. A gallon of regular unleaded gas cost U.S. drivers $2.20 at the pump Thursday, down about 21% from the same date last year, according to AAA. High unemployment and concerns about a prolonged U.S. recession are also leading many Americans to tighten budgets, with 37% of U.S. consumers delaying big-ticket purchases, according to survey data from global consulting firm Deloitte LLP.

Other challenges for auto makers have emerged as well.

Volkswagen, which has committed more than $40 billion to selling 28 million electric cars by 2028, has struggled to finish its ID.3, the first in a new line of electric vehicles it hopes will drive wider adoption among car owners.

Problems with the vehicles’ software, along with pandemic-related disruptions to the company’s business, have delayed a planned summer launch in Europe until at least September, and VW said Wednesday that it had replaced the head of its software efforts.

Rivian also pushed back plans to release its first models, an all-electric pickup truck and SUV, due to supply-chain issues linked to the health crisis. An electric model the company was developing with Ford’s Lincoln brand was canceled.

Auto-industry executives say they have little choice but to press ahead because stricter air-pollution rules in Europe and China require them to reduce tailpipe-emissions or face stiff penalties.

Including hybrids, half of the roughly 350 new models expected to be brought to market in the next few years will be electrified in some way, said John Murphy, senior automotive analyst at Bank of America Corp.

“There’s just no screwing around here by the industry,” Mr. Murphy said. “There’s a real recognition they need to get this done.”

Auto companies had hoped to do so in a less choppy market. After years of overall global growth, electric-vehicle sales contracted in the major markets of China and the U.S. through May, according to data collected by consulting firm EV-Volumes.

The one bright spot was Europe, where electric-car sales grew by more than 50% through May relative to last year, while the total auto market there fell 40%, EV-Volumes data show. European governments have included subsidies for electric-car purchases in their stimulus efforts, helping to bolster the market.

Polestar, a new electrified-car brand owned by Chinese auto group Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co., delayed some plans earlier this year because of the coronavirus, but this March started building its first pure-electric sedan and expects to open a storefront in the U.S. this month.

“It’s been a lot about being lean and nimble,” said Gregor Hembrough, Polestar’s U.S. chief, about managing through the pandemic, “and a lot about good luck.”

European telecom provider Tele2 in April posted first-quarter earnings that were weaker than expected. Shares tumbled from a February peak of 153.95 Swedish krona ($16.51) to SEK 123.50.

The company, which provides mobile and fixed-line services in Sweden, and is active in Estonia, Germany, Latvia, and Lithuania, saw lower revenues from roaming fees as locked-down customers stopped traveling during the pandemic. Bad debts from struggling business customers, and lower equipment sales to businesses also hurt Tele2. It suspended its 2020 guidance and a special dividend.

But compared with its peers, Tele2 (ticker: TELE2B.Sweden), which is listed in Stockholm, is well placed to bounce back because more than 80% of revenues come from the stable Swedish market. It has spent the past five years transforming itself and divesting interests in a raft of non-core countries such as Croatia. It also has a joint venture with T-Mobile in the Netherlands.

Second-quarter results on Wednesday were above market forecasts and the company reinstated its extraordinary dividend and guidance.

Business to business is key for Tele2, though it has low exposure to high risk small businesses, which have struggled in the pandemic, accounting for 7.5% of 2019 revenues, and an above-average exposure to larger, safer businesses in less risky sectors. Andrew Lee, an analyst at Goldman Sachs, said in a June note: “It has no major exposure to the most affected travel, leisure, and entertainment industries, and higher exposure to the more resilient public sector contractors.”

Nick Lyall, an analyst at Société Générale, thinks the shares could rise 17.4% to SEK 145, while Berenberg marks it a Buy with a target price of SEK 136.

Tele2 employs 4,695 workers and has a market value of SEK 84.8 billion. It fetches 20.1 times this year’s expected earnings and is valued in line with peers. In February, it posted net annual profit of SEK 5.1 billion for 2019, up from SEK 992 million in 2018, on sales of SEK 27.6 billion.

Tele2’s free cash flow is among the highest in the sector due to “superior revenue growth in an inflationary Swedish market, driven by price rises that management sees as sustainable in the medium term,” Goldman’s Lee wrote.

CEO Anders Nilsson, who is stepping down in September, told Barron’s that “Tele2 does not stay reactive. As the pandemic struck our markets, we swiftly adapted and put a new strategy in place, to defend our results short-term in order to deliver on our long-term targets.

“We have been able to push some initiatives ahead of time, such as parts of our transformation program and the launch of Sweden’s first and only real 5G network.”

The Tele2 name came in 1993 when Swedish internet provider Swipnet merged with mobile phone provider Comviq, then with cable TV provider Kabelvision four years later. It also acquired Sweden’s largest digital TV provider, Com Hem.

Jörgen Wetterberg, an analyst at Nordea, wrote in a recent note that Tele2’s most important and largest operation is Sweden “where the company splits revenue between the consumer and business segments, which are then divided into mobile and fixed services (including TV).”

While the pandemic initially caused a short-term hit to earnings, analysts are not expecting to see a repeat of what took place in the wake of the global financial crisis, when customers terminated their accounts to save money. Lockdowns and the working-from-home trends will strengthen demand for fixed-line connections and entertainment downloads, Goldman’s Lee said, adding that “we note the risk from consumer bad debt in weaker economies.”

Why MSCI and S&P Global Stock Are Worth Buying at Any Price

Shares of index providers MSCI and S&P Global aren’t cheap, but both stocks could keep rising as new products and services translate into higher sales and profits.

MSCI (ticker: MSCI) has rallied 45% this year to a recent $370, and trades for 47 times 2021 estimated earnings. S&P Global (SPGI) has advanced 30% to a recent $354, and fetches 32 times next year’s expected profits.

MSCI’s business model relies on licensing indexes, pocketing a percentage of assets tracking those indexes, and generating fees from analytics services. Analysts expect revenue to rise 7% this year to $1.7 billion, while earnings could jump 9%, to $7.04 a share. Next year’s consensus estimate: $7.97.

MSCI’s revenue from index licensing and related fees is expected to grow at an annual rate of 9% over the next four years. Profit margins in the segment, which accounts for nearly 60% of revenue, are rising and hit 74% in the first quarter, up from 71% a year ago, based on adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda.

“Everyone wants a piece of the index business because it’s so high-margin, but they have a pretty strong foothold,” says BMO Capital Markets analyst Henry Sou Chien, who rates the stock Outperform.

Granted, any stumble could quickly cut the share price. But Chien still sees upside and recently raised his price target to $501. The company’s opportunity to create indexes based on environmental, social, and corporate governance, or ESG, factors, is underappreciated, he says, and could accelerate in the next three to five years. MSCI has invested in ESG indexes and analytics products for over a decade, and the business is now twice as large as its nearest competitor.

MSCI enjoys a subscription retention rate of 94%. In addition to ESG, growth is coming from options and futures linked to MSCI indexes, thematic and factor-based ETFs, and analytics services related to climate change.

MSCI removed an overhang last year when it renegotiated a long-term licensing deal with BlackRock (BLK), its largest customer, responsible for 12% of revenue. The new deal isn’t as favorable as the old one, but MSCI CEO Henry Fernandez says that it aligns MSCI’s economics more closely with BlackRock’s. Under the old agreement, he says, “if they made less money, we made more money.”

S&P Global could offer more near-term gains. Revenue from S&P Dow Jones Indices accounts for only 14% of revenue. The rest consists of credit ratings; research and analytics, primarily in fixed-income and S&P Capital IQ; SNL Financial for sector data and analytics; and the Platts energy division.

S&P’s ratings division is the largest segment: S&P gets a percentage of total bond issuance and fees for credit surveillance, ratings, and other services. Debt issuance has been rising, as companies seek to refinance and shore up balance sheets, although S&P is forecasting a decline in global issuance in 2020.

S&P’s business seems to be holding up, however. About 43% of revenue is based on subscriptions, which have proved resilient this year. Analysts expect S&P to report a 4% gain in revenue in 2020, to $6.9 billion, with earnings rising 7%, to $10.24 a share. S&P also looks just as profitable as MSCI, with margins on adjusted Ebitda of about 53%.

S&P’s stock is trading above the $348 median price target of Wall Street analysts. Near term, the shares might not have much to gain, but longer term, a rise in corporate debt issuance and growing demand for index data and analytics, including ESG-based products, should help.

China Is Dismantling the Empire of a Vanished Tycoon

Three years after Xiao Jianhua was snatched from a luxury hotel in Hong Kong, Beijing is making it clear that his style of freewheeling finance is a thing of the past.

HONG KONG — Xiao Jianhua was once a trusted financier to China’s ruling elite who came to represent an era of unbridled capitalism.

But three years ago, he was snatched from a Hong Kong luxury hotel and disappeared into Chinese custody. Now, the empire he built is being dismantled by the authorities in Beijing, as China sends a strong message that its era of debt-fueled excess is over.

On Friday, two regulators announced coordinated moves to seize companies worth hundreds of billions of dollars tied to Tomorrow Group, the umbrella company that Mr. Xiao controlled for more than two decades.

China’s banking and insurance regulator said it had taken over four insurers and two trust firms connected to Tomorrow Group, while the securities regulator said it had seized control of two securities firms and a futures company, accusing the businesses of providing misleading information about their shareholders and controller.

In staging the takeovers, China’s top leadership is bringing to heel a key figure from a time of freewheeling finance in which wealthy executives used their political connections to build huge companies that scooped up trophy assets at home and abroad. But the move also risks a public showdown with a tycoon who knows about the secret wealth of people in China’s ruling class.

In many ways, the fate of Mr. Xiao and his empire was sealed in the early hours of Jan. 27, 2017, when he was whisked out of the Four Seasons Hotel in Hong Kong in a wheelchair by a dozen men and taken into police custody in mainland China.

Since then, there has been no official word about his whereabouts, though people familiar with the situation said that he was under house arrest. On Saturday, Tomorrow Group confirmed for the first time that Mr. Xiao was on the mainland, saying that he was cooperating with the government as it restructured the conglomerate.

Long before China tightened its grip on Hong Kong with the security law it imposed last month, Mr. Xiao’s disappearance shattered the illusion that the semiautonomous territory’s business community was beyond the reach of the Chinese authorities. It also sent a chill through China’s political class, already set on edge by the tough anticorruption campaign waged by Xi Jinping, the country’s leader.

For years, Mr. Xiao’s Tomorrow Group and its constellation of companies have been a source of speculation and mystery, because the ultimate ownership was hidden behind layers of shell companies.

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But in a sharply worded statement posted on Saturday on social media, Tomorrow Group confirmed that it was the owner of all nine companies and pushed back against what it called “malicious slanders.”

In a sign that Mr. Xiao could still put up a fight, Tomorrow Group also accused the government of setting up obstacles to its operations and exaggerating the risk that the nine companies posed. The authorities “spared no effort to push for the takeover,” the company said.

Chinese censors moved quickly to take down the statement, which was first reported by The Wire.

China is trying to identify fault lines in a weak economy that survived for decades on a borrowing binge. In recent weeks, the banking regulator has purged tycoons and other shareholders whom it accused of using banks and insurance companies as personal A.T.M.s.

Along with Mr. Xiao, Beijing has also targeted Wu Xiaohui, who married a granddaughter of the former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping, rose to prominence and bought the Waldorf Astoria Hotel. Mr. Wu found himself in the government’s cross hairs in 2018, when his insurance firm Anbang Group was seized. He later pleaded guilty to defrauding investors and was sentenced to 18 years in prison.

Mr. Xiao and the business dealings he undertook — most of them hidden within the Russian-doll-like layers of Tomorrow Group — illustrated the cozy ties between China’s business world and its political elite.

From humble beginnings, Mr. Xiao made his way to the prestigious Peking University, an institution that would prove critical to his entry into the world of finance. There, he headed the official student union at a time of political upheaval, as fellow classmates crowded Tiananmen Square in Beijing to demand democracy in 1989.

Mr. Xiao was said to have kept his head down then, at one point even working with the university to try to de-escalate tensions with the students, before the army crushed the movement by killing hundreds of people or more.

After Mr. Xiao graduated and entered the realm of finance, he received an investment from his state-backed alma mater for an early business venture. Around the same time, he set up Tomorrow Group.

He used the conglomerate to help finance transactions for the political elite and wealthy Chinese who preferred to stay in the shadows. He helped to facilitate partnerships with Mr. Xi’s older sister as well as with the son-in-law of Jia Qinglin, who was then a member of the party’s highest decision-making body.

As Mr. Xiao built up his firm, China embarked on its greatest period of economic expansion and privatization in the 1990s and 2000s.

Under the umbrella of Tomorrow Group, Mr. Xiao amassed stakes in companies that reached all corners of China’s economy, from tightly controlled industries like banking and insurance to rare metals, coal and property. The conglomerate had money in some of China’s biggest firms, including the insurance giant Ping An, and banks like Harbin Bank, Industrial Bank and Huaxia Bank.

Huaxia Life, the insurance arm of Huaxia Bank, was among the companies seized on Friday.

Along the way, Mr. Xiao became rich — with a fortune estimated to be worth as much as $5.8 billion.

After Mr. Xi became China’s top leader in 2012, he promised to wage an anticorruption war against both “tigers and flies.” Mr. Xiao was marked as a tiger.

But the two men had a connection that was awkward, given Mr. Xi’s zeal for tackling graft.

Mr. Xiao acted as a buyer of shares in an investment firm owned by Mr. Xi’s sister and her husband, according to a New York Times investigation. A spokeswoman for Mr. Xiao told The Times in 2014 that the couple “did it for the family.”

Eventually, Tomorrow Group became so big that it threatened the stability of China’s financial system. The most prominent example was its shareholding in Baoshang Bank, which it used to help fund dozens of companies.

The loans that Baoshang extended to Tomorrow Group companies were kept off its books until recently. Last year, it emerged that the bank was on the brink of bankruptcy. The authorities stepped in, marking the first time in two decades that the government had taken over a bank.

Trillions of dollars of debt lie just beneath the surface of China’s financial system, much of it off the books in transactions undertaken by the largest shareholders of banks like Baoshang. Two other big banks failed last year and had to be bailed out. Many experts fear that more than a few other banks are ticking time bombs.

In its statement on Saturday, Tomorrow Group expressed confidence about its future, despite the takeovers.

“After three years of bumpy roads, the faith is still there,” it said. “We also believe that all efforts will be rewarded, and Tomorrow Group will get a fair, just and promised outcome.”

Biden leads by double digits as coronavirus takes a toll on the president, Post-ABC poll finds

President Trump faces a significant challenge in his bid to win reelection in November, with former vice president Joe Biden holding a double-digit lead nationally and the president’s approval ratings crumbling amid a spreading coronavirus pandemic and a weakened economy, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.

The survey portrays an embattled president whose fortunes have declined markedly since the coronavirus arrived in the United States months ago. Trump’s prospects for winning in November appear to depend heavily on his ability to rally an enthusiastic core base of supporters and on convincing a broader swath of a largely skeptical public that he is dealing effectively with the pandemic.

Biden leads Trump 55 percent to 40 percent among registered voters. That compares with a 10-point Biden lead in May and a two-point edge in March, at a time when the pandemic was just beginning to spread rapidly in parts of the country. Among those who say they are certain to vote, Biden’s lead stands at 11 points.

Despite the president’s attempts to shift the electorate’s focus to his criticisms of Biden, both candidates’ supporters are treating the November election as a referendum on Trump. Among Trump voters, 72 percent say what is most important is reelecting the president, including 47 percent who say this is extremely important, while 21 percent say their motivation is to defeat Biden.

Among Biden voters, the results are roughly the opposite, with 67 percent saying what is most important is defeating the president, including 48 percent who say this is extremely important, and 24 percent saying that electing the former vice president is their main motivation.

National polling results tell only a partial story of the state of the 2020 election. Trump’s hopes for a second term rest on whether he can assemble an electoral college majority in the states, even if he were to lose the popular vote, as he did in 2016. Current polling in battleground states shows a similarly challenging pattern for Trump, however, with the president struggling to replicate the often-narrow victories that led to his election four years ago. Still, the margins in many of those states are closer than the national numbers.

Other polls in recent days have also found Trump trailing by a wide margin nationally, and the president responded Wednesday by shaking up his campaign team, demoting campaign manager Brad Parscale and elevating Bill Stepien to the job of leading the reelection effort. To date, however, the president and his campaign have struggled to settle on a consistent and effective line of attack against Biden.

The poll offers a major reason for that: the pandemic that is weighing heavily on the president. The poll was taken as the number of new cases sets records almost daily and the death toll is rising again. What is not predictable is what the situation will be closer to the election and how any changes might affect judgments of Trump’s handling of the virus and, therefore, his prospects for reelection.

The current standing between the president and his challenger appears closely tied to overall impressions of how Trump is dealing with the country’s major problems. His job approval rating has dropped sharply in the past two months and stands at 39 percent positive and 57 percent negative among voting-age adults, with 48 percent of Americans saying they strongly disapprove of the way he is doing his job. In a late-March poll, when just two points separated Biden and Trump in a head-to-head test, Trump’s approval rating stood at 48 percent positive and 46 percent negative.

The drop in Trump’s overall approval is related to a more precipitous decline in how Americans judge his handling of the coronavirus pandemic. On that question, there has been a net drop of 28 points in his approval margin since March as the president has repeatedly contradicted or ignored health experts in his administration and in the states, stoked confusion about the importance of wearing masks and at times appeared indifferent to the crisis even as conditions in many parts of the country were worsening. Currently, 38 percent approve of Trump’s handling of the pandemic, and 60 percent disapprove.

The president’s one consistent strength over the past few years has been public perceptions of his handling of the economy, especially before the pandemic forced businesses to close and millions of workers to be laid off, sending the unemployment rate soaring into double digits.

Today, despite the country’s economic problems, he is still narrowly in positive territory, with 50 percent of Americans approving of his handling of the economy and 47 percent disapproving. In late March, he enjoyed a far-more positive rating, with 57 percent approving and 38 percent disapproving.

Yet the survey results indicate that voter perceptions of Trump’s handling of the pandemic outweigh perceptions of his handling of the economy in the choice for president.

Among voters who approve of how he has handled the coronavirus, 93 percent support Trump over Biden. But of the far larger group who disapprove of Trump’s handing of the pandemic, an almost equal portion, 89 percent, supports Biden over Trump.

Trump’s level of support among those who approve of his handling of the economy is lower, with 80 percent favoring him over Biden. And Trump also trails Biden by more than 2 to 1 among those adults who say they approve of Trump’s handling of the economy but disapprove of the way he has dealt with the coronavirus.

All told, Biden bests Trump on six of seven attributes and on three of four issues measured in the poll.

Biden is seen as having the better personality and temperament to serve as president by 26 points among adults overall. He is seen as likely to do more to unite the country by 24 points, of better understanding “problems of people like you” by 17 points, as more honest and trustworthy by 14 points, as better representing “your own personal values” by 12 points and as having a better idea of what America should stand for by 10 points. Trump and Biden are even at 45 percent on the question of who is seen as the stronger leader.

Trump’s weakness on the issue of uniting the country shows up in two other questions. In the new poll, 61 percent say the president has done more to divide the country than unite it, and 76 percent say that when Trump talks about people with whom he disagrees, he crosses the line in terms of what’s acceptable, with 21 percent saying he stays within acceptable bounds. Views of Biden are flipped, with 63 percent saying he stays within acceptable bounds and 26 percent saying he crosses the line.

On issues, Biden has a 20-point advantage on who is more trusted to deal with the coronavirus outbreak, a 25-point advantage on race relations and a nine-point advantage on crime and safety.

The second two items are notable because the president and his campaign have embraced a law-and-order message, airing television ads that include clips of urban violence and that portray the former vice president as a captive of left-wing radicals bent on tearing down the country. At a time of heightened racial consciousness, Trump has repeatedly used racist appeals to win support.

Trump’s best issue remains the economy, where 47 percent say they trust him more and 45 percent say they trust Biden more. That represents a drop for Trump from March, when he had an eight-point advantage on economic trust.

Today, 75 percent of adults and 86 percent of registered voters say they are certain to vote in November, the latter figure higher among registered voters than at this point in any of the past three elections. The percentage of adults who back the president and say they are certain to vote stands at 81 percent, similar to the 78 percent noted in May.

Among adults supporting Biden, 77 percent say they are certain to vote, up from 67 percent in May. There has been a bigger jump — from 51 percent to 75 percent — of Biden supporters under age 40 who say they are certain to vote.

Biden’s advantage in the head-to-head matchup against Trump shrinks when only those who say they are certain to vote are analyzed and also when only those who say they voted in 2016 are considered. Among 2016 voters who say they are certain to turn out this year, Biden’s lead shrinks to seven points (53 percent to 46 percent).

The Post-ABC poll finds Trump’s recent decline in support is concentrated in states that have averaged at least 30 daily coronavirus cases per 100,000 residents over the past week, a group that includes Florida, Texas, Arizona and Georgia. Trump led by double digits among voters in these states in May, but the latest survey shows Biden with a slight advantage.

When compared with his performance in 2016, the president has lost ground among several key groups of supporters.

The most significant could be Americans over age 65, a group Trump won by seven points, according to network exit polls, but among whom he now narrowly trails Biden, 51 percent to 46 percent. That, however, is better than the 10-point deficit among seniors in a Post-ABC poll conducted in May.

He also has lost ground among white women. In 2016, he won white women by nine points and today is at risk of losing the group, with 46 percent to Biden’s 50 percent.

Biden holds a lead of 28 points among registered voters under age 40 — larger than the 16-point margin by which Hillary Clinton won that group in 2016. But these younger Biden supporters are much less enthusiastic about Biden. Sixty-seven percent of adults under age 40 who support Biden say they are enthusiastic about him, with 17 percent “very” enthusiastic. Among Biden backers over age 65, 91 percent say they are enthusiastic in their support and 61 percent say they are very enthusiastic.

Overall, Biden leads among all female voters by 60 percent to 35 percent and also among all men by a statistically insignificant 49 percent to 45 percent. Continuing a pattern, white voters split sharply along educational lines, with voters holding four-year college degrees clearly favoring Biden and those without degrees backing Trump, by similar margins.

About 2 in 3 voters in urban areas back Biden, while not-quite 6 in 10 of those in rural areas back the president. In suburban areas, considered the key battleground this fall, a bare majority currently back Biden.

The coronavirus pandemic has spurred demands for voting options in November, but the poll finds that most Americans say they prefer to vote in person rather than by mail, by 59 percent to 38 percent.

Trump has repeatedly attacked voting by mail as subject to fraud, and the new survey shows that slightly more Americans say they think mail-in voting is vulnerable to significant levels of fraud, with 49 percent agreeing with that statement compared with 43 percent who say there are adequate protections to prevent significant fraud.

But those percentages are driven by Trump’s own party, with 73 percent of Republicans saying mail-in voting is subject to significant levels of fraud and 66 percent of Democrats saying there are adequate levels of protection against such problems. The two sides also are divided over how they prefer to vote. A bare majority (51 percent) of Democrats say they prefer to vote by mail this fall, but 54 percent of independents and 79 percent of Republicans say they prefer to vote in person.

The Post-ABC poll was conducted July 12-15 among a random national sample of 1,006 adults, with 75 percent of interviews conducted by cellphone and the remaining 25 percent by landline. The margin of sampling error for overall results is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; the error margin is four percentage points for the sample of 845 registered voters. Among the 342 Trump supporters, the error margin is six percentage points, and among the 449 Biden supporters, it is five percentage points.

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